The Syndicate

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:50 pm Naw, I said my piece, NANOOK just reinforced what I claimed. I see it as bad. That my opinion. I’m keeping my vote here

im confused. nanook saying this is how wisp plays as town reinforced your read that wisp is scum?

i understand its your opinion, but ideally you should be able to back it up with examples. its hard to see what you mean if you dont

Mafia theory question, does PoE work day1? If so what factors build into a PoE when there is little known data?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:17 pm Mafia theory question, does PoE work day1? If so what factors build into a PoE when there is little known data?

someones relative towniness to others

im still currently happy with my vote on Sprit, will move to achieve a lynch if need be

[mention]DrWilgy[/mention]
POE is definitely a decent way of lowering the possible mislynches on day 1, even if they are minor things.
are you ok being lynched today?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:17 pm Mafia theory question, does PoE work day1? If so what factors build into a PoE when there is little known data?

As with any strategy, it isn't perfect. It can and often does work though, yes. The Syndicate has seen probably a 40% or so rate of Day 1 mafia chops over the last two years. It has been a remarkable rate (unfortunately late game has been less kind). The biggest two things driving that trend have probably been POE and bussing.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:17 pm Mafia theory question, does PoE work day1? If so what factors build into a PoE when there is little known data?

Oftentimes yes, at least in the right environment

I believe this is the right environment

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:46 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:10 pm

Wisp wrote: ↑Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:03 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:00 pm [vimeo][/vimeo]

Wisp wrote: ↑Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:59 pm @Alison
you never responded before if I recall
is this the same Alison that was in the Chief Delphi Magika Madoka FM game?

Yeah, that was me. Why do you ask?

nice to play with you again
and no reason, but I expect us to probably butt heads throughout this game though
if you are in fact town lol

gotta go grab food

If it means anything, I was genuinely unmotivated that game. It was spammy, I didn't click with any of the players, and I had to deal with elijah trying to wriggle out of a lynch by falsely claiming his grandmother died or some shit followed immediately by witnessing him OGI to spew his alignment, forcing a modkill. Needless to say Iost the will to play after that and just ended up "subbing" out (not going over when the game moved sites). So, very different circumstances between these two games. Hopefully none of the things that happened in that game will be true here.

epi's glad he sticks to the syndicate

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:50 pm Naw, I said my piece, NANOOK just reinforced what I claimed. I see it as bad. That my opinion. I’m keeping my vote here

Maybe I missed something but your vote is on yourself. What gives lad

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:26 pm 40% or so rate of Day 1 mafia chops

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:26 pm remarkable rate

Privilege says lulz

Wisp wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:22 pm im still currently happy with my vote on Sprit, will move to achieve a lynch if need be

@DrWilgy
POE is definitely a decent way of lowering the possible mislynches on day 1, even if they are minor things.
are you ok being lynched today?

Yeh sure. Won't be to the town's benefits, but I get to "told ya so" afterwards.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:30 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:26 pm 40% or so rate of Day 1 mafia chops

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:26 pm remarkable rate

Privilege says lulz

Most places the number is so low that people don't even think it's worth trying.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:26 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:17 pm Mafia theory question, does PoE work day1? If so what factors build into a PoE when there is little known data?

Oftentimes yes, at least in the right environment

I believe this is the right environment

What would constitute the wrong environment?

Doing things cowboy style doesn’t work particularly well.

If you have a contribution beyond “POE dumb, towncore bad” I’d love to hear it

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:31 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:26 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:17 pm Mafia theory question, does PoE work day1? If so what factors build into a PoE when there is little known data?

Oftentimes yes, at least in the right environment

I believe this is the right environment

What would constitute the wrong environment?

Most syndicate games lol

A group of players that refuse to play cooperatively at all leads to ineffective towncores when one is even formed, and a muddled poe.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:31 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:30 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:26 pm 40% or so rate of Day 1 mafia chops

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:26 pm remarkable rate

Privilege says lulz

Most places the number is so low that people don't even think it's worth trying.

I know. Hence the privilege part

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:32 pm Doing things cowboy style doesn’t work particularly well.

If you have a contribution beyond “POE dumb, towncore bad” I’d love to hear it

This in reference to me?

I'm alive and all good!

sabie12 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:35 pm I'm alive and all good!

Most excellent

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:34 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:32 pm Doing things cowboy style doesn’t work particularly well.

If you have a contribution beyond “POE dumb, towncore bad” I’d love to hear it

This in reference to me?

Yep

Most of what I’m seeing from you amounts to poo poo ing the towncore and POE approach, which is whatever, but not particularly helpful or useful.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:35 pm I'm alive and all good!

Good job!

i don't think the kitsu is town case is believable, especially if they have experience playing the game. i'm all for derp clears and all, but i wouldn't derp clear her for that. js

Okay my work marathon begins now. I hope I can maintain a consistent presence later, but I make no guarantees. I think Nanook has a strong handle on matters right now, and I suggest y'all listen to him.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:33 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:31 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:26 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:17 pm Mafia theory question, does PoE work day1? If so what factors build into a PoE when there is little known data?

Oftentimes yes, at least in the right environment

I believe this is the right environment

What would constitute the wrong environment?

Most syndicate games lol

A group of players that refuse to play cooperatively at all leads to ineffective towncores when one is even formed, and a muddled poe.

But don't strong early PoE benefit the occasional deep wolf that may get mixed amongst then early regardless of cooperation? One would think that cooperation would be more inductive of wolf thinking.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:42 am If it’s faked it’s extremely well faked and I’m impressed with her attention to detail

Occam’s razor says it’s not faked

HCrealms players are generally pretty good at fake claiming via my experience. But I think this is right.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:36 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:34 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:32 pm Doing things cowboy style doesn’t work particularly well.

If you have a contribution beyond “POE dumb, towncore bad” I’d love to hear it

This in reference to me?

Yep

Most of what I’m seeing from you amounts to poo poo ing the towncore and POE approach, which is whatever, but not particularly helpful or useful.

An attack on me then when I'm trying to get involved in the game? Omoshiroi desu ne?

By no means did I poo poo PoE, more so wanted to know individuals logic and rational behind it at such a inconclusive state in the game. I'm not even aware of the current state of anyone's PoE.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:26 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:17 pm Mafia theory question, does PoE work day1? If so what factors build into a PoE when there is little known data?

As with any strategy, it isn't perfect. It can and often does work though, yes. The Syndicate has seen probably a 40% or so rate of Day 1 mafia chops over the last two years. It has been a remarkable rate (unfortunately late game has been less kind). The biggest two things driving that trend have probably been POE and bussing.

makes sense

not sure if you were on or were watching the podcast when this was discussed but thingyman has data that suggests that if scum are yeeted D1, its almost always with the help of other scum who are bussing. it tends to be pretty true ime, although contextual factors like wagon formation and game state need to be accounted for

but yea, D1 scum yeets generally make the game much harder and can result in lower winrates for town both because of false town cred given to scummates who bussed and also probably because removing a mafia member early cuts down on incriminating interactions between the scum team since the weakest link has already been removed

one way to counteract the hit in expected winrate to town is to weigh singular votes on scum less and instead focus more on a players overall body of work in a game

/useless theory tangent for those who may find it interesting

Yeah I guess it can be one of FG/LC and like Colin and whatever. Colin on scum team makes sense with one of the more aggressive posters, they'd feel restricted by an inactive scummate in a way that others wouldn't

[mention]sprityo[/mention] you're voting yourself. i'll be voting for you until that moves

[VOTE: sprityo] aubergine

sabie12 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:35 pm I'm alive and all good!

glad to hear!

sabie12 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:35 pm I'm alive and all good!

now u must survive in mafia

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:38 pm Okay my work marathon begins now. I hope I can maintain a consistent presence later, but I make no guarantees. I think Nanook has a strong handle on matters right now, and I suggest y'all listen to him.

we’ll hold down the fort o7

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:41 pm @sprityo you're voting yourself. i'll be voting for you until that moves

[VOTE: sprityo] aubergine

I'm pretty sure he is voting me

Wisp wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:45 pm

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:41 pm @sprityo you're voting yourself. i'll be voting for you until that moves

[VOTE: sprityo] aubergine

I'm pretty sure he is voting me

ya he is, he never changed it in the poll
[mention]Funnygurl555[/mention]
his vote is technically moved, so what are you gonna do now?

oh

[mention]sprityo[/mention] why the self vote? you cant complain if we yeet you if youre gonna help us do it

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:29 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:50 pm Naw, I said my piece, NANOOK just reinforced what I claimed. I see it as bad. That my opinion. I’m keeping my vote here

Maybe I missed something but your vote is on yourself. What gives lad

Yeah, who was this pointed at if not Nanook or himself?

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:41 pm @sprityo you're voting yourself. i'll be voting for you until that moves

[VOTE: sprityo] aubergine

Are you scum?

Wisp wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:46 pm

Wisp wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:45 pm

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:41 pm @sprityo you're voting yourself. i'll be voting for you until that moves

[VOTE: sprityo] aubergine

I'm pretty sure he is voting me

ya he is, he never changed it in the poll
@Funnygurl555
his vote is technically moved, so what are you gonna do now?

yea he did, hes voting himself in the poll

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:56 am Never chop Daisy by the way. Just don’t do it folks. Don’t make me pull my hair out in dead chat watching that.

explain to me why

[mention]DrWilgy[/mention] do you actually tale exception to yourself being a yeet candidate this day? like... can you not see why you’re in the poe given your relative lack of contribution?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:38 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:33 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:31 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:26 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:17 pm Mafia theory question, does PoE work day1? If so what factors build into a PoE when there is little known data?

Oftentimes yes, at least in the right environment

I believe this is the right environment

What would constitute the wrong environment?

Most syndicate games lol

A group of players that refuse to play cooperatively at all leads to ineffective towncores when one is even formed, and a muddled poe.

But don't strong early PoE benefit the occasional deep wolf that may get mixed amongst then early regardless of cooperation? One would think that cooperation would be more inductive of wolf thinking.

A) deep wolf is a problem for late game/f3

B) no I strongly disagree, cooperation is strongly to town’s benefit

Now that JJJ is away the scum Wilgy can play without repercussion. Muwahahahaha!!!

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:40 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:36 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:34 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:32 pm Doing things cowboy style doesn’t work particularly well.

If you have a contribution beyond “POE dumb, towncore bad” I’d love to hear it

This in reference to me?

Yep

Most of what I’m seeing from you amounts to poo poo ing the towncore and POE approach, which is whatever, but not particularly helpful or useful.

An attack on me then when I'm trying to get involved in the game? Omoshiroi desu ne?

By no means did I poo poo PoE, more so wanted to know individuals logic and rational behind it at such a inconclusive state in the game. I'm not even aware of the current state of anyone's PoE.

By all means, get involved then.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:49 pm @DrWilgy do you actually tale exception to yourself being a yeet candidate this day? like... can you not see why you’re in the poe given your relative lack of contribution?

No, yes, and nor do I care anymore.

This is the third game in a row where I've been up to get yeeted day 1 because I have a tendency to be a slow starter.

It's w/e at this point. I'll try to contribute where I can.

“Scum kills D1 are bad” is...certainly a take

It’s actually extremely rare on most sites for a major D1 wagon to not have scum on it regardless of the flip. The answer isn’t “don’t kill mafia D1,” it’s not “treat everyone on a successful D1 mafia kill as highly suss,” those are both bad approaches

Sprit voted both me and tony, but was his vote on himself the whole time?
There isnt much more we are gonna get out of this unless he comes back, but from his last post, his intentions definitely were to leave his vote on me. But its also clear he doesnt care at all where is actual vote goes

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:52 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:49 pm @DrWilgy do you actually tale exception to yourself being a yeet candidate this day? like... can you not see why you’re in the poe given your relative lack of contribution?

No, yes, and nor do I care anymore.

This is the third game in a row where I've been up to get yeeted day 1 because I have a tendency to be a slow starter.

It's w/e at this point. I'll try to contribute where I can.

okay

ftr i wont be voting you this day but i understand why others might

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:53 pm “Scum kills D1 are bad” is...certainly a take

It’s actually extremely rare on most sites for a major D1 wagon to not have scum on it regardless of the flip. The answer isn’t “don’t kill mafia D1,” it’s not “treat everyone on a successful D1 mafia kill as highly suss,” those are both bad approaches

well yes, obviously. i didnt say any of this

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:50 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:40 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:36 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:34 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:32 pm Doing things cowboy style doesn’t work particularly well.

If you have a contribution beyond “POE dumb, towncore bad” I’d love to hear it

This in reference to me?

Yep

Most of what I’m seeing from you amounts to poo poo ing the towncore and POE approach, which is whatever, but not particularly helpful or useful.

An attack on me then when I'm trying to get involved in the game? Omoshiroi desu ne?

By no means did I poo poo PoE, more so wanted to know individuals logic and rational behind it at such a inconclusive state in the game. I'm not even aware of the current state of anyone's PoE.

By all means, get involved then.

No, let's take a step back.

I think it's pretty clear that I haven't read and am in attempt to involve myself in the game now.

Why take an aggressive stance when not needed. You implied negativity that wasn't there. What does that accomplish?

Honestly, being ok with your death is probably the dumbest thing as any alignment, outside very special circumstances, especially on day 1, since for the most part, you know one thing, "your alignment"

so what information does it bring? does it point out mafia or town on their train? no, because we can find that out by other means, so all it is, is a waste and varying degrees of NAI or scummy. I am not going to even pretend to call it towny, cause it's not

Wisp wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:53 pm Sprit voted both me and tony, but was his vote on himself the whole time?
There isnt much more we are gonna get out of this unless he comes back, but from his last post, his intentions definitely were to leave his vote on me. But its also clear he doesnt care at all where is actual vote goes

his vote was on you before. he only recently switched to himself. i have no idea why or if he intends to leave it there or what