The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:25 am Alright, I have completed a brief meta check on MP. My method was very basic: for each of his three most recent games (MU champs #9, MU wild card #1, and this game), I focused only on the first 200 posts he put into each game thread. I could have chosen any number here, but I wanted a decent sample without making the workload longer than the methodology can sustain given its limitations. Among those 200 posts, I counted those which I felt adhered more or less to the following conditions:

~ Does not promote the generation of reads (or is unlikely to do so)
~ Does not aid other players in making a read on MP himself (or is unlikely to do so)
~ Is not necessary to explain MP's perspectives relevant to the game or to promote thread motion
~ Does not bear an obvious strategic purpose
~ Is literally in off-topic green

Note: this is an inexact science. It can be difficult to determine whether some individual post deserves to be classified this way. I have just now counted, and if I were to do it again in a half-hour the counts would likely change some small amount. I'm not delicately deliberating over every post. I am viewing them for a moment each and making a judgment.

Why did I think this would be meaningful? It may not necessarily be, but it's a simple means of assessing MP on one important front. Is he spamming this thread deliberately to inflate his post count? I think that's an important question because of the following points:

~ He is MP, and MP is generally expected to post frequently in his civilian body.
~ He was just involved in two MU tournament games as a civilian in each, and he produced by far the highest post counts he has ever managed
~ If he is a mafioso in this game, it is nearly a certainty that he would place a high priority on generating a high post count to suit baseline expectations
~ If he is a mafioso, generating a comparable post count with authentic-seeming content is a daunting task. Taking every opportunity to infuse the thread with fluff inflates the count without necessarily making him look terribly different from his usual self.

The results:

DFS Mafia

63 of 200 posts met the "spam" criteria -- 31.5%.

MU tournament game #9

25 of 200 posts met the "spam" criteria -- 12.5%.

MU tournament wild card game #1

36 of 200 posts met the spam criteria -- 18%.

Discussion:

MP has been more prone to spam in this game than he was in either of those. Even considering the variance inherent to this method, that much is apparent to me. Some possible explanations for this which should be considered:

~ MP is back at his home site, and is familiar with everyone in this game now. He has more to say in a casual sense, and more excitement to express at the prospects before him. He was unfamiliar, generally, with the players he encountered in the MU games.
~ MP's spam isn't necessarily always self-driven -- sometimes it is responsive to other spam from other sources. There may be more of that present in this game than the MU games.
~ MP is a mafioso and is taking every opportunity to make whatever posts he can make to ensure his post count is elevated well above second place.

I don't think this is a reason to lynch MP now, or even to turn a civilian read on him around. It is a reason for vigilance though in our considerations of his play. It is easy to observe his enthusiasm and his effort, check the civilian box, and continue about our business. I think that would be a mistake.

Infected_alien8_ wrote:

M Plus wrote:

Infected_alien8_ wrote:

M Plus wrote:I'm super underwhelmed with Alien. Let's do it.

[V]Infected_alien8_[/V]

How are you feeling underwhelmed exactly?

If you want we can talk, I'm here, and I can pause on the catching up for a while because I doubt I'm ever going to catch up before the end of the day at this rate.

Hey Alien!

I just was hoping to see more from you I suppose, not sure what all of your reads are. I do suppose you have been poking and prodding while here but I’ve not been getting as much a sense where you are going other than with your Arch case and even then we just haven’t gotten on the same page.

I don’t think I want to lynch you in particular in the end, probably would rather Jari, but I am exploring the POE options

What are all of your reads now?

Oh, did you change your mind about finding my points on Arch compelling then? How come?

My main suspect is still Arch. After Arch I have very slight suspicions on [MENTION=2320]Five[/MENTION] (I may have just not caught up to your answer yet, but why are you town-reading me so hard?) and Mantis (just because of the point I just made).

I have a tentative slight town-read on Dave, because I feel similarly to before but the Zack-esque impression I was feeling yesterday is not as strong anymore. I have a slight town-read on Ara because although I have a gut feeling they're town, and I've liked a lot of their posts, there was one post that pinged me that I mentioned before, so my town-read of her has gone down slightly. I also have a tentative town-read on John, purely based on gut again. I also think Slaan is quite town because I get the sense they're genuinely trying to contribute and they're not afraid to say things that might not resonate with others and get a bit messy, but a few people have said they're great at being Mafia, and this is again just an impression I have of them rather than be going back to confirm this with specific posts because I haven't had the time to do that. I also have a very slight town-read on you just because, when I compare you to last game, in my mind you're basically the same, except I did note you used the emote this game a few times and I don't remember you using those last game but I think that's sort of a silly point so I'm ignoring it, and I feel satisfied about the pre-game thought process thing now that I understand it was about that instead of your current playstyle, though I still am slightly tinfoily/weary that you're attempting to ally with aby so I'm not feeling completely safe with you.

Everybody else is somewhere around neutral at varying degrees that I haven't thought about yet.

So, essentially, my main scum-read is Arch, then five and mantis as very slight things, then a handful of slight town-reads but nothing strong.

Infected_alien8_;2575689 wrote:Hey everyone, I'm here and caught up.

Before I say anything I'd like to encourage you all to ISO me if you have the time. I know how I look if you just look at my vote day 1 but I'm at least hopeful that if you read all my posts, my Townie objective will bleed through. If it doesn't then that's my fault I guess in which case I'm sorry but I've done my best to scum-hunt and figure out the game and if you have any specific queries as to why I did what I did then let me know.

The end of day vote itself, sure, I can see why that might look suspicious because in a Mafia world, voting on Jari in that case would have been a good move. But I had genuine reasons for my move there as a Townie as well, and I think it's logical and not something I'm making up now because way before end of the day I was having a gut feeling on John being Town so that's why I didn't vote there (combined with my other point at end of the day RE his 'slip' response). I get why I'm mislynch material but I also think I have a decent case for me being Town - or I'm assuming so - so please read my posts and let me know if there's anything else you find suspicious and I can clear it up, and in the meantime I'm going to try to get something else in the event I'm spared.

Reads-wise, I town-read dich the most. I also town-read Ara - I'm getting random tinfoil moments about them but I want to ignore them at the moment. Same thing with Dave, except since wiggles said Dave wouldn't bus his partner and was Town, I trust his meta on that for now.

Mantis I get a Townie tone from their posts, their interaction with John felt genuine to me, and they have a sort of cool 'hmm' about them in my mind which feels like a genuine Town pondering on what's going on. That feels like a somewhat trashy articulation of my read but I can't really think of a better way to put it haha. At the same time though, the fact they town-read John, then after a while said it 'faded' without giving a reason (@mantis what was that reason?), then recommended someone that they vote Jari but never voted themself and also said they were fine with John reads to me as suspicious because it's like they wanted to suddenly lose John as a town-read so that when they got lynched she'd look good, but also wanted to defend John in favour of Jari to keep their rolecop but felt they'd look bad being on Jari if John got lynched so sort of froze up in indecision. That's all just a pretty little theory I have to explain it though and there's a Town explanation as well but this is why they're a candidate for a lynch to me - preferably not today though, unless nothing else comes up at all, because overall I do like her posts and my gut says she's Town.

I also think TK is Town. I guess I'm sympathetic of his end of day 1 wrong vote placement thing because I know I'm in a similar boat as Town (although I don't really feel that with mantis, I guess because her story is the progression leading up to her decision whereas mine and TK's has reasoning behind it that I can understand), but also, and this may be a silly point, but the fact he qualified as Mafia last game makes me have pretty high expectations of his Mafia game, and the fact he entered the thread by mostly just talking about how to play the game rather than making any reads, which I'd imagine he'd be self conscious of, and the fact he let his vote placement look so bad (as Mafia surely he'd forsee that), makes me lean Town. That's all WIFOM I suppose but that's the way my brain is thinking right now. Also his posts today just seem like genuine solving and I like the fact he keeps wanting credit for his ideas (lynching me which I know will end up wrong, and lynching dich which I think will end up wrong) makes me think he's Town as well because I doubt he'd keep wanting to take credit for wrong ideas as Mafia, but maybe his WIFOM is really strong.

Infected_alien8_;2576118 wrote:

M Plus 7;2576114 wrote:

Infected_alien8_;2576110 wrote:

M Plus 7;2576100 wrote:I don't feel like you're actually trying to discern my alignment here. There's no answer I can give to this question that informs your read in a positive direction.

To answer your question, I didn't because I didn't feel like it? I pretty much voted you and nearly thereafter felt I didn't want to actually vote you anymore. I didn't feel it was serving any purpose, and my mood shifted, and I was distracted on phone. That's the answer. You can see it in my ISO.

I disagree, I can read your reason and see if I buy it or not and see how you respond to my pressure. Though I will agree the answer you have given doesn't swing me either way at all because it's fair enough and not really what I was expecting to be honest

Total horse $#@!. Your question was a loaded question.

In what way was it a loaded question?

DansGame

I find this post quite generic and empty, which makes me question whether you're truly trying to piece together the game or just going through the motions to act the part:

Quote Originally Posted by DansGame89 on June 11, 2018, 12:22:43 PM (#268) wrote: @Secondhand Reverant 223

As I said, I like giving reads early when I have them. It was a very very slight townread anyway and need to see more posts from them.

Other reads so far:
Slight town
M Plus 7 - asking questions and contributing a lot to the discussion
Necrominius - seems to be approaching the game with an open mind. Developing reads based on content but not tunneling, thoughtful reasoning with their reads

Most everyone else is so far neutral
Slight Mafia Lean - Aldax for being nervous about being lynched, not seeming to want to open up about their thoughts

Thinking someone is town because they ask questions and contribute a lot just seems a little thin/empty to me, and isn't really the sort of read I expect from someone who supposedly doesn't know anyone's allignment and is paranoid about everyone and trying to work out who's trying to steer the game one way and who's trying to steer the game another and how they're going about doing it. If someone's contributing a lot and asking lots of questions, I think it then depends on the nature of their contribution and questions to determine their allignment, which you didn't mention.

Also, why are you singeling out Necro for approaching the game with an open mind, developping reads based on content, not tunnelling and having thoughtful reasoning with their reads? Do you not think anyone else has done any of that? Because in my opinion almost everyone has done that. So again it seems a bit generic and empty and like you just felt the need to single a few people out to look the part of 'I have a couple trusted people but everyone else I have no idea on because I'm town!' but didn't fully develop your scum-reading thought processes on them, because you don't need to, because you're not actually scum-hunting.

Also when what makes you think Aldax isn't wanting to open up about their thoughts? This leads to the next point:

Spoiler: show

Quote Originally Posted by DansGame89 on June 11, 2018, 12:35:59 PM (#283) wrote:

Quote Originally Posted by M Plus 7 on June 11, 2018, 12:16:35 PM (#259) wrote:

Quote Originally Posted by DansGame89 on June 11, 2018, 12:00:39 PM (#231) wrote:

Quote Originally Posted by Aldax on June 11, 2018, 11:52:33 AM (#221) wrote: I should have been more clear: I'm used to random voting on D1 but I'm not gonna blindly vote here, I don't know enough about the etiquette on MU games to risk throwing a random vote that can potentially bite me later on.

Seems a little nervous about the possibility of being lynched. What's wrong with giving your opinions early game? If you're lynched and you flip town, it gives people more to go off of if you are giving your reads. Do you have any reads or thoughts about anyone yet?

Thinking about this post a little more, and I don't like it.

For one, re: the bolded/underlined, Dans doesn't really elaborate on what is giving him that impression, nor does he seem to consider whether Aldax's perspective is coming from one of a different culture. In fact, what I don't like is that Dans isn't really giving us what he thinks about Aldax's alignment in here, in any form.

This is just a weaksauce post. The line of questioning is soft ball.

I could almost see this post by Dans being a post that one mafia member throws at another. It's soft distancing. But that's a bit cart ahead of horse.

Not being willing to give your thoughts because you're worried about possibly getting lynched because of them definitely seems alignment indicative and not just culture clash.

Whether intentional or not, I actually think you're strawmanning his points here. He said he wasn't willing to vote randomly because he was afraid it would bite him later, not that he was afraid to give his thoughts, from what I saw. Unless by 'random' he didn't mean truly random and meant he wasn't willing to out his suspicions, but from what I can tell he never said that, so where are you getting that from? It seems a bit to me like you're trying to find a reason to suspect him rather than truly scum-hunting, hence the misrepresentation of his points, either internally inside your head (because you're not bothered enough to read over and check in-depth his thoughts because you're not truly scum-hunting), or just externally to try to throw shade onto him or deflect suspicion from you by those who don't agree with your suspicion on him (by saying "actually look he did this super scummy thing"), hoping nobody notices. Since that'd be risky I lean towards the notion that you misrepresent his arguments in your own head, but I think it could be because, like I said, you're not truly scum-hunting and are more trying to find reasons to suspect people rather than genuinely working from the ground up. I think if you're trying to find reasons to suspect people you're probably more prone to forgetting what someone truly was saying because you're just focusing on throwing shade at them rather than truly being surprised/suspicious of something that stood out to you (which would probably be easier to remember clearly), so that's my logic behind that.

So you first did your ISO of robot and said they were scummy. Then you seemed to back off because of the people voting them, which is, I'm assuming, the part you're referring to when you said your opinion changed on them because of them having votes piled up? Or is that not right?

Then, you agree with SR that they seem scummy again.

Then, I don't think you mention them again until your neutral read on them where you say they're flying under your radar.

So if quote #2 is the part where robot moves up, and after that, quote #3 you reconsider that, why did you go silent on them for a while until neutral reading them the next day?

Infected_alien8_;2423709 wrote:

Mexal;2422483 wrote:I just read through MP7's write up on Aldax/Asek. It makes sense. I don't have anything to add since when I was reading Asek/jdark, I thought a lot of Asek's actions screamed partners with Aldax.

How come you didn't say that in your analysis by the way?