The Syndicate

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:02 am**

Elohcin wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:03 am RIP TH, very cool role.

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:08 pm
Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:06 pm DH getting votes "for no reason" is something DH said himself repeatedly, so there may have been a consensus in the baddie chatroom that they didn't understand the logic of the suspicion against him. In this way, I think Elo looks mafia.
Oh I didn't think about that TH, good point.
I am not mafia and I still don't understand the DH votes even though I am glad you guys got him. I just don't understand why someone wasn't nice enough to explain it to me. And I would not kill TH this early in a game. I like him too much. That has to be a set up. Since he is suspecting me, mafia thinks if they kill him, you all will look at me. Why would I do that. Why would I go after the guy who suspects me so you will all look at me. When I am mafia, I try to kill as random as possible so no one can trace the kill. Derp, people.

You know what's worse than NK analysis? NK choice self-analysis.

I'm sorry nobody explained the DH reasoning, but that doesn't change the fact that you came in and agreed with his Nutella reasoning (which was, to use a phrase he would've used, mondo garbo) and worked to put a vote somewhere else. Especially given the "why am I getting votes is a reflection of wolf chat" theory, you definitely look teammate compatible. Surely you can see that?

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:02 am**

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:59 am Anybody got tinfoil vibes on colonialbob?

No.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:06 am**

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:22 am I don't know what happened to my suspicions of sig. Also, why am I voting DH?

This stray comment is a good look for nova

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:20 am**

Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:15 am
juliets wrote: ↑Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:56 pm RIP TH, what a cool role you had.

@Lunalee and @JaggedJimmyJay which one of you has the wand?
I received the wand. Why do you ask?

Because info came to me last night that the wand allows you to compel a forced vote or a forced target once in the game. So it's my assumption you compelled either me or speed chuck to vote for Turnip Head on day 2. A mafia member must have the ability to compel a vote as a role ability so it sure looks like you were in cahoots with that person to compel two votes on Turnip Head day 2. Do you have another explanation?

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:42 am**

READ THIS RECAP OF THE DHARMAHELPER LYNCH AND DISCUSS/ANALYZE/NITPICK

Spoiler: show

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:01 am**

My takes:

There are almost certainly scum who piled onto Luna, and probably scum who tried to divert attention from DH.

Nutella: has rep as an artful busser and is all over the place, but I go town on this one, if not for her own actions than for DH’s. That would have to be really good teammate fighting at the end there.

SVS: votes Luna right away. Doesn’t have to take ownership of the lynch but helps get it rolling. Lean bad

Cbob: Cbob’s vote of DH is golden imo. At that point he can’t vote Luna without contradicting himself but he can surely redirect traffic, but he sorta seals DH’s fate here.

juliets: not a fan of her vote. Her questioning style is honestly brilliant for when she’s bad — she doesn’t have to own any suspicion but instead everything looks the result of careful deliberation after hearing everybody else’s points. Lean bad, maybe tinfoil.

Long Con: all over the place but we can assume DH didn’t target his teammate unless it’s a ... long con

Colin: okay, here’s the inherent flaw in my exercise. I know I’m good but my vote to J at the end is bad as hell. Possibly the scummiest thing on here honestly. So take all this with a grain of salt but my defense is that I was an early contributor to the DH lynch when it surely looked like Luna would die.

Jay: who knows? At the time of his Luna vote it’s a full-bandwagon, but he floats around everywhere. I don’t think his quibbling with DH rises to the level of nut’s. Most teammatey so far imo.

sig: his logic to vote Luna is the same sketchy logic employed by DH. I dunno if that clears him or not. He comes back around to DH when it looks close to a done deal which is a good look. Hardest to read here.

Luna: man, I do not know. This exercise kinda rests on the idea that Luna was a civ counterwagon to DH but DH’s insistence against her makes me want to believe he was trying to bus her as intended. And she voted for DH way too late in my opinion. I feel worse about her than I did earlier.

Eloh: she may have been attempting to get civ credit by doubting the then-runaway Luna wagon. Her insistence that someone explain the DH lynch may be consistent with her beliefs but it may be that she was reluctant to sacrifice a powerful teammate. As to why you wouldn’t vote Luna, then, I dunno ...

Nijuu: I continue to see no reason to civ read her aside from Sprit. Speaking of ...

Sprit: super tinfoil but what if his claim is bullshit? As a scum he would obviously know who isn’t bad. His claim just makes no sense to me UNLESS there’s an angle to it that we don’t understand yet. And his Luna vote is again an easy bandwagon vote.

Speedchuck: MAY have been attempting a redirect omto Long Con, but probably not

Ipeenoses: so somebody has access to a sockpuppet and used it to untie a wagon in a scum’s favor.

Kyle: sorta hate his vote tbh. And he parrots DH’s reasoning/logic/language. I think TH’s observation about that was VERY savvy.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:05 am**

So I think these folks are good GTH:

nutella
colonialbob
Long Con
Sig
Elohcin
Speedchuck

Bad, in order of badness:
SVS
juliets
Nijuu
Luna
sprit
Jay
Kyle

Everybody else:
Did nothing noteworthy or are dead

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:06 am**

[VOTE: KYLE] aubergine but I am open to anyone I sorted bad.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:01 pm**

Thank you for that analysis Colin. That was super detailed and helpful.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:06 pm**

[VOTE: Elohcin] aubergine because of her reluctance to vote DH without a "good reason" while DH was going off about being lynched for "no reason". And then she votes completely off wagon for Jay.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:10 pm**

Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:01 pm Thank you for that analysis Colin. That was super detailed and helpful.

No. Juliets' thing.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:15 pm**

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:01 am My takes:

There are almost certainly scum who piled onto Luna, and probably scum who tried to divert attention from DH.

Nutella: has rep as an artful busser and is all over the place, but I go town on this one, if not for her own actions than for DH’s. That would have to be really good teammate fighting at the end there.

SVS: votes Luna right away. Doesn’t have to take ownership of the lynch but helps get it rolling. Lean bad

Cbob: Cbob’s vote of DH is golden imo. At that point he can’t vote Luna without contradicting himself but he can surely redirect traffic, but he sorta seals DH’s fate here.

juliets: not a fan of her vote. Her questioning style is honestly brilliant for when she’s bad — she doesn’t have to own any suspicion but instead everything looks the result of careful deliberation after hearing everybody else’s points. Lean bad, maybe tinfoil.

Long Con: all over the place but we can assume DH didn’t target his teammate unless it’s a ... long con

Colin: okay, here’s the inherent flaw in my exercise. I know I’m good but my vote to J at the end is bad as hell. Possibly the scummiest thing on here honestly. So take all this with a grain of salt but my defense is that I was an early contributor to the DH lynch when it surely looked like Luna would die.

Jay: who knows? At the time of his Luna vote it’s a full-bandwagon, but he floats around everywhere. I don’t think his quibbling with DH rises to the level of nut’s. Most teammatey so far imo.

sig: his logic to vote Luna is the same sketchy logic employed by DH. I dunno if that clears him or not. He comes back around to DH when it looks close to a done deal which is a good look. Hardest to read here.

Luna: man, I do not know. This exercise kinda rests on the idea that Luna was a civ counterwagon to DH but DH’s insistence against her makes me want to believe he was trying to bus her as intended. And she voted for DH way too late in my opinion. I feel worse about her than I did earlier.

Eloh: she may have been attempting to get civ credit by doubting the then-runaway Luna wagon. Her insistence that someone explain the DH lynch may be consistent with her beliefs but it may be that she was reluctant to sacrifice a powerful teammate. As to why you wouldn’t vote Luna, then, I dunno ...

Nijuu: I continue to see no reason to civ read her aside from Sprit. Speaking of ...

Sprit: super tinfoil but what if his claim is bullshit? As a scum he would obviously know who isn’t bad. His claim just makes no sense to me UNLESS there’s an angle to it that we don’t understand yet. And his Luna vote is again an easy bandwagon vote.

Speedchuck: MAY have been attempting a redirect omto Long Con, but probably not

Ipeenoses: so somebody has access to a sockpuppet and used it to untie a wagon in a scum’s favor.

Kyle: sorta hate his vote tbh. And he parrots DH’s reasoning/logic/language. I think TH’s observation about that was VERY savvy.

Colin, regarding me and ninja, both of our votes were forced on different days. The forcer has got to be mafia, or do you disagree? Also what do you think about the fact Luna has the wand and the wand allows her to compel a vote? I believe she forced either me or speed on day two when there were two forced votes on TH, and it only makes sense that she coordinated that with her mafia counterpart who has that ability. In fact, I'm changing my vote to Luna right now until she can provide an alternative set of circumstances.

I appreciate your thoughts in other areas in other areas though. I hadn't thought about why Elo didn't vote Luna for example and whether sprit's claim is bullshit (super tinfoil I know but it spurs me to read back on him).

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:36 pm**

I didn’t consider the vote-forcing, or the wand because I didn’t know about that.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:38 pm**

I can deffo see a bad Luna. Like I said, DH’s strategy loked like it could have been to bus her and get out of the woods. At that point everyone looks on the table though.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:39 pm**

*looked

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:02 pm**

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:01 am My takes:

you missed the part where i voted DH

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:13 pm**

sprityo wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:02 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:01 am My takes:

you missed the part where i voted DH

If you tied it as you said that’s a pretty good look for you (assuming Luna is town)

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:14 pm**

I didn’t cross-reference in-thread votes with the final tally. Somebody could do that and see what’s juicy.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:15 pm**

As in, who voted but didn’t comment, thereby placing it without drawing attention to it

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:15 pm**

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:20 am
Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:15 am
juliets wrote: ↑Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:56 pm RIP TH, what a cool role you had.

@Lunalee and @JaggedJimmyJay which one of you has the wand?
I received the wand. Why do you ask?
Because info came to me last night that the wand allows you to compel a forced vote or a forced target once in the game. So it's my assumption you compelled either me or speed chuck to vote for Turnip Head on day 2. A mafia member must have the ability to compel a vote as a role ability so it sure looks like you were in cahoots with that person to compel two votes on Turnip Head day 2. Do you have another explanation?

I did make Speedchuck vote Turnip Head. I have no idea why you were forced to do the same. Perhaps someone copied my one-shot and applied it to you?

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:16 pm**

[VOTE: Luna] aubergine nothing has changed for me. I see 3 worlds, for those unfamiliar worlds are different scenarios.

World 1 Most likely: Luna, Quin, and DH are all on the same team, after Quin was killed by a civ/3p they went into damage control. The chances of Luna getting lynched was high and as the day went on the chances of DH also getting lynched increased. They had to do some extreme distancing in an attempt to salvage one of them for awhile. This is given even more weight if you look at Luna's actions yesterday, multiple times she attempted to not vote for DH and tried to steer the wagon away from him and her onto another player. Leading me to believe they were still attempting to stop either lynch. She did this by trying to start a wagon on Jay, when this failed they reverted back to bussing. This is a very plausible theory for a good mafia team to attempt, I've seen it done and anyone who's been on a good mafia team know that weird ideas are bounced around. That's even more true here on TS where we've had mafia literally kill their own teammates to throw civs off the scent.

World 2 Possible: We have two small mafia teams I'm thinking 3 and 3 or perhaps 2 and 3. I don't believe this is impossible at all and will stand by this theory for awhile. Luna and DH are on different mafia teams, however she was up for a lynch three times, two of these times a non mafia member was lynched. Yesterday DH was lynched instead and flipped mafia he was very very pissed about this. I see two reasons for that
World 2A: His team didn't kill Mac which set off his wagon, ergo he got lynched for something he had nothing to do with.
World 2B: Quin his teammate was killed by someone, I believe it's possible this was by the other mafia team which again would make him unhappy.

This is less likely, but still possible.

World 3 highly unlikely: Luna is a civ and was just a bad counterwagon for the first few phases. Followed by being the counterwagon for DH who was mafia. Normally I'd say this makes her more likely to be a civ, however her actions surrounding the DH lynch and last phase as well as how quickly she attempted to jump on me when I suggested she might not be civ leads me to believe she's mafia.

Finally I think the people saying this is unlikely or impossible haven't played enough games with a mafia DH or remember how skilled he can be. I think it's not only plausible, but likely that they came up with a bussing strategy once it became clear that one of them could be lynched.

Not to mention even when Luna was bussing DH she was still attempting to find another wagon and lead the lynch away from both of them.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:17 pm**

I also disagree with the ELoh vote and the reasoning Luna gave for it, seeing how she also pursued Jay for some time last phase. Plus Eloh vote didn't do anything, there wasn't a tie between DH and Luna when she voted or anything like that so while odd I wouldn't say her vote was damning.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:18 pm**

Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:15 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:20 am
Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:15 am
juliets wrote: ↑Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:56 pm RIP TH, what a cool role you had.

@Lunalee and @JaggedJimmyJay which one of you has the wand?
I received the wand. Why do you ask?
Because info came to me last night that the wand allows you to compel a forced vote or a forced target once in the game. So it's my assumption you compelled either me or speed chuck to vote for Turnip Head on day 2. A mafia member must have the ability to compel a vote as a role ability so it sure looks like you were in cahoots with that person to compel two votes on Turnip Head day 2. Do you have another explanation?
I did make Speedchuck vote Turnip Head. I have no idea why you were forced to do the same. Perhaps someone copied my one-shot and applied it to you?

So Luna, you understand how this looks right? Why did you force speed to vote TH?

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:19 pm**

Yeah sig makes a lot of good points.

I was going to say I almost feel like in order for us to gleam anything from analyzing the vote we need to know if Luna is town or not and, well, only a couple ways to find out, but that’s even ignoring all the reasons she could be bad ...

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:21 pm**

Worst case scenario we have an excellent understanding of DH’s lynch and can regroup. Best case scenario we caught a bunch of dirty bussing scum in the act.

[VOTE: LUNA] aubergine

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:21 pm**

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:18 pm
Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:15 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:20 am
Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:15 am
juliets wrote: ↑Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:56 pm RIP TH, what a cool role you had.

@Lunalee and @JaggedJimmyJay which one of you has the wand?
I received the wand. Why do you ask?
Because info came to me last night that the wand allows you to compel a forced vote or a forced target once in the game. So it's my assumption you compelled either me or speed chuck to vote for Turnip Head on day 2. A mafia member must have the ability to compel a vote as a role ability so it sure looks like you were in cahoots with that person to compel two votes on Turnip Head day 2. Do you have another explanation?
I did make Speedchuck vote Turnip Head. I have no idea why you were forced to do the same. Perhaps someone copied my one-shot and applied it to you?
So Luna, you understand how this looks right? Why did you force speed to vote TH?

Because I had a wand, and I wanted to use it? I honestly didn't know who to use it on. I just picked speed and TH.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:23 pm**

Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:21 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:18 pm
Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:15 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:20 am
Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:15 am
juliets wrote: ↑Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:56 pm RIP TH, what a cool role you had.

@Lunalee and @JaggedJimmyJay which one of you has the wand?
I received the wand. Why do you ask?
Because info came to me last night that the wand allows you to compel a forced vote or a forced target once in the game. So it's my assumption you compelled either me or speed chuck to vote for Turnip Head on day 2. A mafia member must have the ability to compel a vote as a role ability so it sure looks like you were in cahoots with that person to compel two votes on Turnip Head day 2. Do you have another explanation?
I did make Speedchuck vote Turnip Head. I have no idea why you were forced to do the same. Perhaps someone copied my one-shot and applied it to you?
So Luna, you understand how this looks right? Why did you force speed to vote TH?
Because I had a wand, and I wanted to use it? I honestly didn't know who to use it on. I just picked speed and TH.

I'm having a hard time believing that you used your one shot with no strategy whatsoever in mind. I will consider what you say and I ask others to speak up as to whether this is believable or not.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:25 pm**

Votes DH after this post from me, but then later says it was weird I didn't vote for him.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:02 pm
sig wrote: ↑Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:46 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:41 pm
sig wrote: ↑Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:32 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:42 am
sig wrote: ↑Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:46 am So quick recap I thought the mafia killed Mac since he had names on his list. I still believe this is true anand recommend we look closely into DH and juliet, however atm I think we should be lynching Luna. She's been spared from a lynch twice with a non mafia being lynched each time.
Why are we isolating that one post and not, say, his harranguing of Quin?
Quin is dead and flipped mafia. However, I don't think they'd have killed him if he was right about just one person. So he probably had more mafia members on that list.
Mmmmmmmmmmmm it's a N1 kill. And it's Mac. And he was after Quin. I don't think they need a stronger reason.

But if mac was onto someone else, who would it be?
I think he was right about DH as well, I'm unsure about Juliet being mafia, but I'm leaning no atm.

I don't want to lynch blooper today, i've been gut reading her as good. I much prefer the Luna/DH near tie we've got going on.
LOL. okay, I'll tie it for you.

[VOTE: DharmaHelper] aubergine

Then she switches off of DH onto Jay, at this point going with my World 1 the mafia team decided to try to save both DH and Luna by redirected onto Jay who in theory should've been an easy target.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:45 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:41 pm I don’t love head-ass meat slabs/hot potatoes/fire drills but I also don’t love the two wagons
yeah, me neither, since I'm one of them. :P Also DH hasn't been around much today, and I feel bad lynching someone who's not around to defend themselves.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:47 pm the lynch today is quite boring, and I want to switch to Jay in case it takes off.

[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

Then she winds up switching back to DH after the Jay wagon doesn't catch so she can get some civ credit for being the counterwagon to mafia and voting for him.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:26 pm**

Luna, have you had suspicion of and/or voted TH? Can't remember.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:27 pm**

Juliets, how did you find out what the Wand does?

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:28 pm**

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:27 pm Juliets, how did you find out what the Wand does?

it was information I received last night.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:45 pm**

Everyone here is trippin and I will explain why when on a pc

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:12 pm**

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:45 pm Everyone here is trippin and I will explain why when on a pc

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:22 pm**

[mention]sig[/mention] what made you change from two mafias being most likely secnario?

Re: wand - if it's a one-shot doesn't a baddie team try to save it until it actually matters? Was TH taking suspicion D1? Who (if anybody) pushed TH on D2?

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:24 pm**

I'm open to baddie Luna but it's almost entirely because of the wand so I want to examine that closely.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:26 pm**

I'm very sympathetic to the "the Mafia" phrasing pointing to one group, but how big it is, I dunno.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:29 pm**

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:26 pm I'm very sympathetic to the "the Mafia" phrasing pointing to one group, but how big it is, I dunno.

The only question for me is what happened N2? Assassination of Quin + no other kill.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:30 pm**

Yeah that's a good point. Redirection, protection + vigging should be considered as well.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:31 pm**

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:22 pm @sig what made you change from two mafias being most likely secnario?

Re: wand - if it's a one-shot doesn't a baddie team try to save it until it actually matters? Was TH taking suspicion D1? Who (if anybody) pushed TH on D2?

yeah bob I certainly have a hesitation about why it wasn't used when it really mattered but then TH was night killed not too long after the forced votes. That tells me they wanted him dead for reasons I don't understand. I don't think anyone pushed TH on day 2, though I will probably re-read it to make sure. I'm just having a hard time seeing the two TH vote forces as coincidental and Luna's reason for doing it - no strategy just picked two names and did it - sounds very fishy to me.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:31 pm**

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:31 pm I'm just having a hard time seeing the two TH vote forces as coincidental and Luna's reason for doing it - no strategy just picked two names and did it - sounds very fishy to me.

+1

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:52 pm**

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:22 pm @sig what made you change from two mafias being most likely secnario?

Re: wand - if it's a one-shot doesn't a baddie team try to save it until it actually matters? Was TH taking suspicion D1? Who (if anybody) pushed TH on D2?

Mainly the size of the game, unless we've got two very small team I think one slightly larger team makes more sense. Plus looking at how yesterday shook up I think there's a fair amount of teammate compatibility between Luna and DH.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:58 pm**

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:12 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:45 pm Everyone here is trippin and I will explain why when on a pc

Oh, but not you.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:59 pm**

sig wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:16 pm [VOTE: Luna] aubergine nothing has changed for me. I see 3 worlds, for those unfamiliar worlds are different scenarios.

World 1 Most likely: Luna, Quin, and DH are all on the same team, after Quin was killed by a civ/3p they went into damage control. The chances of Luna getting lynched was high and as the day went on the chances of DH also getting lynched increased. They had to do some extreme distancing in an attempt to salvage one of them for awhile. This is given even more weight if you look at Luna's actions yesterday, multiple times she attempted to not vote for DH and tried to steer the wagon away from him and her onto another player. Leading me to believe they were still attempting to stop either lynch. She did this by trying to start a wagon on Jay, when this failed they reverted back to bussing. This is a very plausible theory for a good mafia team to attempt, I've seen it done and anyone who's been on a good mafia team know that weird ideas are bounced around. That's even more true here on TS where we've had mafia literally kill their own teammates to throw civs off the scent.

World 2 Possible: We have two small mafia teams I'm thinking 3 and 3 or perhaps 2 and 3. I don't believe this is impossible at all and will stand by this theory for awhile. Luna and DH are on different mafia teams, however she was up for a lynch three times, two of these times a non mafia member was lynched. Yesterday DH was lynched instead and flipped mafia he was very very pissed about this. I see two reasons for that
World 2A: His team didn't kill Mac which set off his wagon, ergo he got lynched for something he had nothing to do with.
World 2B: Quin his teammate was killed by someone, I believe it's possible this was by the other mafia team which again would make him unhappy.

This is less likely, but still possible.

World 3 highly unlikely: Luna is a civ and was just a bad counterwagon for the first few phases. Followed by being the counterwagon for DH who was mafia. Normally I'd say this makes her more likely to be a civ, however her actions surrounding the DH lynch and last phase as well as how quickly she attempted to jump on me when I suggested she might not be civ leads me to believe she's mafia.

Finally I think the people saying this is unlikely or impossible haven't played enough games with a mafia DH or remember how skilled he can be. I think it's not only plausible, but likely that they came up with a bussing strategy once it became clear that one of them could be lynched.

Not to mention even when Luna was bussing DH she was still attempting to find another wagon and lead the lynch away from both of them.

"World one, the most complicated explanation, is most likely. World three, the simplest explanation, is highly unlikely."

U wot m8? Occam's razor would trim this up nicely.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:01 pm**

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:23 pm I'm having a hard time believing that you used your one shot with no strategy whatsoever in mind. I will consider what you say and I ask others to speak up as to whether this is believable or not.

This is not an accusation. Luna not having a town motive is odd (though, like with silencing, there's hardly ever a good town reason to force votes).
Unless you have a scum motive you'd like to bring up, this doesn't point to scum.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:02 pm**

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:31 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:31 pm I'm just having a hard time seeing the two TH vote forces as coincidental and Luna's reason for doing it - no strategy just picked two names and did it - sounds very fishy to me.
+1

This is a fair point, I'll concede. Still looking for a scum motive behind it. Not like they were trying to lynch TH. And if Luna coordinated with scum, linking the wand use to BTSC, then why did she claim to have used it?

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:03 pm**

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:22 pm @sig what made you change from two mafias being most likely secnario?

Re: wand - if it's a one-shot doesn't a baddie team try to save it until it actually matters? Was TH taking suspicion D1? Who (if anybody) pushed TH on D2?

+1 for correct line of thinking

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:03 pm**

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:01 am
Eloh: she may have been attempting to get civ credit by doubting the then-runaway Luna wagon. Her insistence that someone explain the DH lynch may be consistent with her beliefs but it may be that she was reluctant to sacrifice a powerful teammate. As to why you wouldn’t vote Luna, then, I dunno ...

I never thought Luna was bad. Why would I vote her at that time?

Then.........

sig wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:25 pm Votes DH after this post from me, but then later says it was weird I didn't vote for him.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:02 pm
sig wrote: ↑Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:46 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:41 pm
sig wrote: ↑Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:32 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:42 am
sig wrote: ↑Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:46 am So quick recap I thought the mafia killed Mac since he had names on his list. I still believe this is true anand recommend we look closely into DH and juliet, however atm I think we should be lynching Luna. She's been spared from a lynch twice with a non mafia being lynched each time.
Why are we isolating that one post and not, say, his harranguing of Quin?
Quin is dead and flipped mafia. However, I don't think they'd have killed him if he was right about just one person. So he probably had more mafia members on that list.
Mmmmmmmmmmmm it's a N1 kill. And it's Mac. And he was after Quin. I don't think they need a stronger reason.

But if mac was onto someone else, who would it be?
I think he was right about DH as well, I'm unsure about Juliet being mafia, but I'm leaning no atm.

I don't want to lynch blooper today, i've been gut reading her as good. I much prefer the Luna/DH near tie we've got going on.
LOL. okay, I'll tie it for you.

[VOTE: DharmaHelper] aubergine

Then she switches off of DH onto Jay, at this point going with my World 1 the mafia team decided to try to save both DH and Luna by redirected onto Jay who in theory should've been an easy target.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:45 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:41 pm I don’t love head-ass meat slabs/hot potatoes/fire drills but I also don’t love the two wagons
yeah, me neither, since I'm one of them. :P Also DH hasn't been around much today, and I feel bad lynching someone who's not around to defend themselves.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:47 pm the lynch today is quite boring, and I want to switch to Jay in case it takes off.

[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

Then she winds up switching back to DH after the Jay wagon doesn't catch so she can get some civ credit for being the counterwagon to mafia and voting for him.

This is pretty damning. I think I may have been tricked by Luna all game so far.

Then her explanation of how she used the wand..

**voting Luna**

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:05 pm**

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:02 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:31 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:31 pm I'm just having a hard time seeing the two TH vote forces as coincidental and Luna's reason for doing it - no strategy just picked two names and did it - sounds very fishy to me.
+1
This is a fair point, I'll concede. Still looking for a scum motive behind it. Not like they were trying to lynch TH. And if Luna coordinated with scum, linking the wand use to BTSC, then why did she claim to have used it?

I don't get why TH would have been targeted either. As far as claiming, I think we've demonstrated in this game and others (Fire Emblem) that claiming, for whatever reason, nets you trust points from people. Maybe it's because scum are thought to want to hide everything.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:06 pm**

Eloh: I mean that if you were scum, you probably would have wanted to vote DH (unless they were both teammates of yours, but then, IDK)

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:07 pm**

*vote LUNA, not DH, sorry

The Syndicate

The Game of Champions 2018 [ENDGAME]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 3]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 3]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 3]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]

Re: The Game of Champions 2018 [Day 4]