The Syndicate

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:46 pm @tutuu there is a youtube tag in the post editor so the video will embed so i dont have to click to see what it is lol

i wanted it to be a surprise sis! its like opening a present!

ok so we’re sending spf and lc? i’m good with that

i havent read most of whats been said in the last 30 min and will do that at some point but i wanted to be here

i wish that people would stop voting for multiple suspects

like voting both lc and alison just moves them both up one and has no impact on who actually dies. vote one person and take a stand

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:59 pm I wanted to get a closer look at Alison's reads progressions. I use this kind of chart to visualize that -- the colors depict her reads [generally per my interpretations] on each player in the game over time, starting early Day 1 on the left and progressing toward the present moment on Day 2.



What's immediately apparent is the prevalence of straight lines of color in this chart. Alison's read has only "changed" on three players: Hally, Long Con, and myself. Her read on me hasn't changed since around mid-Day 1 though, and her read on Long Con has only kind of "changed" in that she has accepted him as a worthy chop. Her change on Hally was quite brief.

So I have to wonder if this is a natural expression of what [insert average expected civilian] might look like in this particular game where things have been so clouded in uncertainty. While others struggle to form and develop their reads with confidence, Alison's basically don't move. And it has left her with three suspects, two of whom she feels aren't compatible with one another.

I'm bothered, but I want to know what others think.

I dislike Alison's lack of changing reads too. I feel like I've done a lot that shows my towniness this game and she hasn't seen it although of course I'm biased. She hasn't really doubted her reads much at all, but she's putting herself out there enough and wanting a thunderdome and that feels like strategically questionable play as mafia. I know she could make herself more townread if she wanted to but she isn't.

actually idk why im still here anticipating a flip when there's no flip in 24 hours rofl

see ya troublemakers

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

Ultimately I'm a little more certain on LC than I am on Alison.

I'm actually here now and I'll try to catch up and give whatever takes I can in the short time I have left.

tutuu wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:51 pm actually idk why im still here anticipating a flip when there's no flip in 24 hours rofl

see ya troublemakers

towny

thun remember to vote in the poll

This game is irritating me. I hope Long Con is mafia.

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:13 am I haven't fully caught up yet but I glanced over the posts from this page and I just want to say that this kind of emotion by nut (specifically the "super excited to have nailed a wolf" vibe) is incredibly impressive if it's faked, and I don't think it is, I think nut is just a villager here.

Agreed. Nut's push on LC has been quite towny which is good since I now have four confident townies: JJJ, Martin, Nut, and SPF.

i actually think it’s possible lc/alison could be w/w and that alison was trying to get attention off him by being like “i wanna thunderdome thun immediately”

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:54 pm i actually think it’s possible lc/alison could be w/w and that alison was trying to get attention off him by being like “i wanna thunderdome thun immediately”

Had a similar thought when she tied Thunal to Long Con as if she was trying to divert attention from him. Possible TMI connection.

like alison said she would support an lc elimination but shes not voting him and did not actually push him at all

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:55 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:54 pm i actually think it’s possible lc/alison could be w/w and that alison was trying to get attention off him by being like “i wanna thunderdome thun immediately”

Had a similar thought when she tied Thunal to Long Con as if she was trying to divert attention from him. Possible TMI connection.

oh, where did she do that? i think i missed it

[mention]Hally[/mention]

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:17 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:13 am

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:08 am Can we like exe Thunal right now? I really want to.

[VOTE: Thunal] aubergine

Did something in Thunal’s recent posts push you to this point?

I didn't like #1539. It was a very long post that tried to push a specific narrative I think is very wrong. The timing of it is really bad too. Like it was right after two things happened:

1) LC wagon started to gain serious traction.
2) Hally (and the rest of the thread) started suspecting me less.

That's pretty suspicious timing, needless to say I disagree with the contents of the post, and I already had a decently strong scumread on Thunal prior. I want to kill her.

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:30 am I mean it's biased in the sense that you're scumreading a Hally post, saying that Alison looks good and you look bad, and I'm townreading it.

Anyway I'm thunderdoming you right now, if nutella wants to resolve her LC crusade today that's cool since he's scummy too (and frankly has scum equity with you), but tomorrow I'm going to make it about you or me to the best of my abilities. And if I die at any point I want everyone to exe Thunal as my legacy.

Okay sorry I couldn't be here at the end of the day today guys, just pulled over on the side of the road to make a post and a vote. I guess I'll to Alison. Good luck.

[VOTE: alison] aubergine

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:49 pm
no, it’s because jay knows sloonei better than anyone so i value his opinion on sloonei more than anyone else’s

Regardless of your alignment I believe this. I realized that I had a hole in my argument - if you would be concerned about anyone being suspicious of you for not listening to them, it would be me. I think this justification is either town!Hally caring about experience level or scum!Hally following what town!Hally would do.

I do dislike that Hally still thinks I'm just flat out wrong and have bad arguments, but not sure if that's an AI dislike or just something I'm frustrated about personally.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:58 pm @Hally

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:17 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:13 am

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:08 am Can we like exe Thunal right now? I really want to.

[VOTE: Thunal] aubergine

Did something in Thunal’s recent posts push you to this point?

I didn't like #1539. It was a very long post that tried to push a specific narrative I think is very wrong. The timing of it is really bad too. Like it was right after two things happened:

1) LC wagon started to gain serious traction.
2) Hally (and the rest of the thread) started suspecting me less.

That's pretty suspicious timing, needless to say I disagree with the contents of the post, and I already had a decently strong scumread on Thunal prior. I want to kill her.

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:30 am I mean it's biased in the sense that you're scumreading a Hally post, saying that Alison looks good and you look bad, and I'm townreading it.

Anyway I'm thunderdoming you right now, if nutella wants to resolve her LC crusade today that's cool since he's scummy too (and frankly has scum equity with you), but tomorrow I'm going to make it about you or me to the best of my abilities. And if I die at any point I want everyone to exe Thunal as my legacy.

oh. yea i don’t really like that. i don’t think thun/lc makes sense as w/w and would like alison to explain that

Good luck Grasslands gang. Play hard in your QT. If I am dead on Day 3, don't give anyone any slack. That includes the people playing hard. Some people are tougher to chop by default. Don't let that stop you if they are mafia.

[mention]Hally[/mention]
[mention]NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME[/mention]
[mention]Sloonei[/mention]
[mention]Thunal33[/mention]
[mention]nutella[/mention]
[mention]MartinGG99[/mention]
[mention]Alison[/mention]
[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

omg why wont i die



glad i was right on lc though

maybe that means alison is maf?? or thats what they want me to think


sloonei is still my main sus but hm

fuck


dizzy pls

im sorry i posted i'd unlock it myself but i think he needs to do the poll and stuff

ok yknow what hes not even active im just doing it

we don't have a poll still but it seemed unfair nobody could post and he went offline F

Reads as of N2 (before LC flip and JJJ kill):
Hally - did a complete 180 on Carotte once they were sent to the grasslands which I find less suspicious than I did before since it was consistent with their take on LC after they weren’t sent to the grasslands. Seems to be solving and gave thoughts I had some agreement with. Their response to me seemed genuine and they solved a lot in the Grasslands, changing the strength of some of their reads (like on Alison). Townlean.
Tutuu - has a confident playstyle and snap voted me and Sloonei, but didn’t give a lot of justification. I don’t see a whole lot of town indicative content. However, when I actually read her posts she seems more towny than when I take a break from the game and come back. Felt frozen for most of D2 and hasn’t changed her reads much. Scum lean, mostly for PoE reasons.
JJJ - very reasonable, logical, somewhat different from the scum game of his I skimmed. Generally has a thought process that’s consistent and makes sense, and I find myself thinking his takes come from town when I read them. Townread.
Alison - played very differently from her SK game. Suspects me and won’t let go of it even when I’m not a viable elim, which actually makes her look a little better. The fact that she hasn’t doubted her read on me at all and even suggested a thunderdome wouldn’t be strategic play as scum. Town lean.
Nanook - hasn’t done much. I’ve played with him once before in the PvZ game when we were both town and his play was similar there but he posted a little more. Null/neutral.
Sloonei - feels TWTBAW. His play wouldn’t be strategic if he was scum and I know he’s a top tier player so unless he actually wants to sacrifice himself to put his teammates in a really good position I feel like he would take more pride in his scum game and play in a more conventionally towny way. However, I expected more from his town game too. It’s possible he is scum with low motivation. I’m starting to consider him again for PoE reasons.
Martin - thoughts look genuine and I get the feeling he’s posting whatever thoughts come to mind without a whole lot of calculation which is a good look for him. He’s considered people outside the immediate PoE which makes me feel good about him. Townread.
Nutella - mindmelded with me through D1 and I think she looks a little townier from her play in the Grasslands both N1 and N2. I’m also giving weight to a lot of people’s meta reads that she’s town. Townread.
SPF - I really like that she thought something was off with this game because I was having the same feeling and she voiced it in the thread before I did. Generally gives off towny vibes and feels like she did in the finals and in the two turbos I played with her when she was town. I’ve never seen her scum game though. She hasn’t posted a whole lot but when I see her posts I think they come from town. Townlean, although she’s a possible deepwolf.

My meta (I thought it would be good to link it, especially for Alison so she can realize that this is my town meta):
Town games:
https://mafiacafe.boards.net/thread/105 ... ch-special (the only light game on the list)
https://forum.throneoflies.com/t/wild-w ... -win/83518 (this was also my first game on a site)
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... vs-Zombies

Scum games:
https://mafiacafe.boards.net/thread/65/ ... 9-town-win
https://mafiacafe.boards.net/thread/88/ ... eague-town

Town then scum game (I was recruited into the scum team n1):
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ard-Fiesta

oh thank god, i badly needed to see a wolf flip

jay being killed over nut is kinda weird and may be a good look for sloonei/worse look for alison. hm

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:01 pm maybe that means alison is maf?? or thats what they want me to think


sloonei is still my main sus but hm

Quick tinfoil:

If sloonei is mafia,

Then they did that to eliminate JJJ being on Sloonei and killed him while he had suspicions on Alison, so it would have double benefits.

Or at least I think Alison is town town.

I don't know the plausibility of Sloonei being mafia though. I never really thought he was particularly towny though, just town. And maybe I need to look into that at some point of D3.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

For SPF and Tutuu who weren't in the treehouse QT, I had a discussion about Alison and my concerns but I ended up realizing that I'm probably over-analyzing it (as she suggested in one of her last posts of D2). Therefore, I've personally committed to town-locking her and just never touching the idea of "alison is scum" ever again.

It also means unless tutuu is scum then my whole D2 was wrong and sucked.

Treehouse QT:
https://www.quicktopic.com/53/H/JnhsMvi7UfLM8

I didn't think the Jay kill was all that unusual, it looks like scum aren't trying to kill people with the most correct reads (since they killed Nova), they're just killing the widely townread people and Jay definitely fell into that category. Are the NKs on this site usually straightforward or do scum often make WIFOMy or framing NKs?

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:25 pm Martin - thoughts look genuine and I get the feeling he’s posting whatever thoughts come to mind without a whole lot of calculation which is a good look for him. He’s considered people outside the immediate PoE which makes me feel good about him. Townread.

You do realize that over-analysis specifically means I am calculating?

Or at least I think it would imply it.

So far I kinda feel like Alison's theory that I tend to over-analyze is true. It never occurred to me to think about when to stop analyzing stuff....which is probably a good skill I need to learn.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:39 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:25 pm Martin - thoughts look genuine and I get the feeling he’s posting whatever thoughts come to mind without a whole lot of calculation which is a good look for him. He’s considered people outside the immediate PoE which makes me feel good about him. Townread.

You do realize that over-analysis specifically means I am calculating?

Or at least I think it would imply it.

So far I kinda feel like Alison's theory that I tend to over-analyze is true. It never occurred to me to think about when to stop analyzing stuff....which is probably a good skill I need to learn.

I meant that it didn't look like you planned or forced your D2 posts. I think your analysis later on also looked quite good and I like the reevaluation on Alison, although I wouldn't call her lock town.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:38 pm I didn't think the Jay kill was all that unusual, it looks like scum aren't trying to kill people with the most correct reads (since they killed Nova), they're just killing the widely townread people and Jay definitely fell into that category. Are the NKs on this site usually straightforward or do scum often make WIFOMy or framing NKs?

were nova’s reads incorrect?

and the kill is unusual because nut is the most clear off lc flipping but scum killed jay instead

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:38 pm I didn't think the Jay kill was all that unusual, it looks like scum aren't trying to kill people with the most correct reads (since they killed Nova), they're just killing the widely townread people and Jay definitely fell into that category. Are the NKs on this site usually straightforward or do scum often make WIFOMy or framing NKs?

Don't ask me, I don't really know about this site's general statistics or whatever either

Though kills can be made for a very simple purpose at times.

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:41 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:38 pm I didn't think the Jay kill was all that unusual, it looks like scum aren't trying to kill people with the most correct reads (since they killed Nova), they're just killing the widely townread people and Jay definitely fell into that category. Are the NKs on this site usually straightforward or do scum often make WIFOMy or framing NKs?

were nova’s reads incorrect?

and the kill is unusual because nut is the most clear off lc flipping but scum killed jay instead

I don't know if they were correct or not, but Nova didn't have a lot of strong takes so I don't think scum thought Nova was the most likely to push them (which is the motivation behind killing for reads).

Nova did suspect LC though. I'll look for possible spew from LC.

Jay did say this earlier on D2 about the Nova kill, if its of interest to anybody here. I don't really have any strong take-aways from it other than Nova disliked LC, though there isn't really enough negative reads by Nova to clearly match 3 scum.

Honestly I wanna say, in my opinion, that the other 2 wolves are either in the "unclear" or the "good" section or both.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:28 pm I looked over nova's posts. Check your wifom worries if you like, but it's still worth a glance. They specifically chose to kill him instead of [some other consensus town read]. His stances as far as I can tell:

tutuu - good
hally - unclear
LC - bad
nanook - unclear
sloon - good
spf - unclear
thunal - unclear
nutella - unclear
martin - love/hate
alison - bad

I didn't concern myself with his first-post reads here, because I tend to doubt any mafia team chooses its kills with those in mind. nova's reads weren't super developed. I'm just gonna stick them here for now and think about it.

Unless you ofc count the "love/hate" as another negative read but then you would have to argue the wolf team was LC/Martin/Alison

Hi am I clear yet

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:55 pm Hi am I clear yet

not even close

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:58 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:55 pm Hi am I clear yet

not even close

Oh ok

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:35 pm And [VOTE: LC] aubergine

How about now ?

I'm actually kinda leaning towards getting Nanook possibly eliminated/executed today

After all, Jay did have his suspicions about Nook and even voted him on D2, even (well, on the bun-to-head) believing that Nutella and Nanook were V/W

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:05 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:04 pm BUN TO HEAD GO

MARTINGG99
NUTELLA
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

town
town
mafia

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:48 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:38 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:31 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:24 pm I don’t think I’ve asked you to read my mind

The thread/QT, maybe, not my mind tho

I agree that via the QT, you don't fit as a mafia teammate with nutella.

Otherwise, you're asking me to read your mind. I can only get so far with "I understand that Nanook plays this way and it doesn't inherently make him mafia".

It doesn't make you town either. If there's something you've done that you believe is town-indicative, or that you think I should view as town-indicative, then please highlight it. I'm telling you right now that I am not there, and I don't really care whether you trust me.

How is that at all asking you to read my mind

My reads are out there

The NK, the grasslands choice, my snap nova read, these are all things that combined should lead you to think I’m town. I have 34 posts in thread and like 10 or something in the QT. That *should* be enough to get you past “null so default to a scum read” territory on me, combined with NK and grassland choices it *should* be enough to give you more than zero changed to a begrudging one “not teammate” read.

Is there a reason you aren’t 100% locked in this game or that I should otherwise be considering here? Cause I expect normal townJay to default to me being town when I’m doing things like making reads and getting in, paraphrasing you, “meaningless arguments.” I do not expect jay to go “meh idk he’s nanook mafia I guess?”

You’re a mafia read by process of elimination. I don’t think anything you said in this post is a reasonable expectation. “Making reads” as a standard for town reading you is frankly ridiculous. You’ll never get suspected ever again if that holds. Pointless QT arguments could be town. You’re kind of argumentative in general so spare me if I don’t take confidence in that.

I do like your snap read on nova. That’s a single tiny thing in a great big thread.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:31 pm [VOTE: NANOOK] aubergine

Anyways this game is *probably* relatively easy now

Still think Hally/spf aligned

Nutella lock town*

Kill everyone else




*if nutella hard bussed LC then did the “idk I’m not 100% on jay don’t clear him off my read if I die“ thing *immediately before NKing Jay* then g fucking g I’m not catching her

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:01 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:58 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:55 pm Hi am I clear yet

not even close

Oh ok

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:35 pm And [VOTE: LC] aubergine

How about now ?

still no. you’re a busser

try posting more content instead