The Syndicate

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:09 am**

Ricochet 2 wrote:A block

It's not difficult to come up with a plausible theory.

Interesting theory.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:12 am**

Ricochet 2 wrote:One of those nights was ended very early, and it was only 6 possibilities. Take out night one (possibly cookie missed) and that leaves you 5... including death night. MM night three, lacey night four, cobalt night five, dom night 6, llama night 8.

Unfortunately, if that is correct I think it also leaves some of the earlier results open to having been recruited afterwards?

All things considered, I keep coming back to Cookie as the best choice for a lynch.

This also leaves out players that are currently dead, but not when he 'hid' behind them.

Can someone explain the hider role? I want to make sure I'm understanding it correctly.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:17 am**

I found the role description.

Also, how do we know that Bass 2 hid behind someone?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:19 am**

fingersplints wrote:Being fine is the second. Nothing happens/risky alignment check.

If Bass 2 targetted a recruit he would be killed. The only 'baddie' type role that a hider can successfully hide behind is a seemer... if we even HAVE one of those this game.

If Bass 2 hid behind a seemer, he would be spared as well.

Knowing that this game has had seemers aplenty, it would come as no surprise if one of Bass' earlier targets were a seemer.

Linki @Dom we don't. It's implied from Bass' recent post and sig jumped on that.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:25 am**

There are seemers aplenty?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:28 am**

Llama 2 wrote:
fingersplints wrote:Being fine is the second. Nothing happens/risky alignment check.

If Bass 2 targetted a recruit he would be killed. The only 'baddie' type role that a hider can successfully hide behind is a seemer... if we even HAVE one of those this game.

If Bass 2 hid behind a seemer, he would be spared as well.

Knowing that this game has had seemers aplenty, it would come as no surprise if one of Bass' earlier targets were a seemer.

Linki @Dom we don't. It's implied from Bass' recent post and sig jumped on that.

I see why sig voted for you then.

I also see that asking you what your thoughts on the matter are might not help. :P

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:16 am**

I've done an iso on llama and I generally feel pretty ok about him not being on the mafia team that had SVS on it, at least.

There appears to be nothing I can see that really connects llama to eloh/ninja either for bad or for good, including the vote that day.

The fact that llama is pretty sure SVS is bad and the next night SVS is nightkilled might be significant.

Timmer 2, worth a look, died on night 4, his iso has some posts about llama.

I feel like what has happened in this game could be very consistent with llama being the even night killer.

I would feel very ok with my vote going there.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:41 am**

Ricochet 2 wrote:I've done an iso on llama and I generally feel pretty ok about him not being on the mafia team that had SVS on it, at least.

There appears to be nothing I can see that really connects llama to eloh/ninja either for bad or for good, including the vote that day.

The fact that llama is pretty sure SVS is bad and the next night SVS is nightkilled might be significant.

Timmer 2, worth a look, died on night 4, his iso has some posts about llama.

I feel like what has happened in this game could be very consistent with llama being the even night killer.

I would feel very ok with my vote going there.

Why are we so caught up in even and odd night killing teams anyway? Who coined that assumption? We know there is a possible team from recruitment. But how are you so sure they kill on odd nights?

You mention Timmer 2. What significance does his opinion have on me, besides just mentioning me?
If I recall, timmer agreed with my posts. What does that have to do with my guilt?

Though I can appreciate that someone is looking at my voting history, since no one else has done so afaik.

Do you agree with Dom (I think it was Dom) that there could be a serial killer?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:45 am**

I'm not certain about two teams with a kill, but I've had it in my mind for a long time and now I think it's probable. Particularly because why would mafia kill SVS on night 6. I have mentioned a possible redirect, and I'm not ruling that out either, but I also think golden was probably bad and died on night 2.

Timmer 2 died on night 4.

I guess an even night killer could be a serial killer, or it could be eloh/ninja's super-secret secret and her recruit(s) inhereted the kill. Either way amounts to the same for me.

As for who has been thinking about the possibility of two teams - how about just sticking with me. This is what I had to say on day 4...

Ricochet 2 wrote:I was also downright wrong. I don't think synonym is LC's teammate. I'm not going to vote synonym today, even though I think a second team is possible, but we have no evidence of it. Anyway, if anyone is on a second team, I'm looking squarely at llama and boo, both of who seemed confused about why golden would be alive when the answer seemed obvious to me (no double targetting). My immediate thought was they knew they had killed golden the night before and it wouldn't be double targetting.

When I get a moment I'll do a Rico-esque post, but I'm looking at the following in particular so far today: boo, llama, elohcin, cookie, MM. I don't agree with the points raised on BR or lacey yet so I'd have to be convinced, and don't see any reason to suspect anyone else right now.

I've been really sick - up during the night, sleeping during the day, I'm not in good shape. I'm trying to contribute as much as I can so sorry if its not as much as I would like, hopefully it passes in a day or two.

I'm not 'caught up in it', but surely you can see it makes a lot of sense of events. I'm not making an 'assumption', I am making a theory, one which I find convincing enough that you are my likeliest candidate for a vote.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:18 am**

LOL, I keep expect to come in here and find myself dead. I always tend to lose interest when i am a civ and get suspected for silly reasons. So sorry to the hostesses for the skatey-eight millionth time

In any case gonna do the unpopular thing here & vote for Dom. He is lying about the whole "I can't see why someone would think there is an unkillable baddie" thing, and he couldn't have been roleplaying real Dom with that post since I am sure REAL Dom has had that role in his games. So my only conjecture as to why he said that lie was in order to use it as a basis for suspicion of me, whereas if he were a civ, he would have either not mentioned his thoughts on that topic if he suspected me, or he would have agreed with me that it was a possibility. Even if he was roleplaying a non local player, like pretending to be sig or Wilgy, someone not familiar with that role, I still don't think he would have specifically used that point to build suspicion with on me (or anyone, really). I think he was looking for a hook, and he used that. And civvies don't need hooks.

Not that that argument matters anymore, but it is why i am really pretty sure that he is bad. Becasue I can't find a civvie reason for him to say that with my super strong belief about who he is in reality. And I think that I am a pretty good guesser when it comes to that stuff

Voting Dom cause he's bad.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:41 am**

Ricochet 2 wrote:I'm not certain about two teams with a kill, but I've had it in my mind for a long time and now I think it's probable. Particularly because why would mafia kill SVS on night 6. I have mentioned a possible redirect, and I'm not ruling that out either, but I also think golden was probably bad and died on night 2.

Timmer 2 died on night 4.

I guess an even night killer could be a serial killer, or it could be eloh/ninja's super-secret secret and her recruit(s) inhereted the kill. Either way amounts to the same for me.

As for who has been thinking about the possibility of two teams - how about just sticking with me. This is what I had to say on day 4...

Ricochet 2 wrote:I was also downright wrong. I don't think synonym is LC's teammate. I'm not going to vote synonym today, even though I think a second team is possible, but we have no evidence of it. Anyway, if anyone is on a second team, I'm looking squarely at llama and boo, both of who seemed confused about why golden would be alive when the answer seemed obvious to me (no double targetting). My immediate thought was they knew they had killed golden the night before and it wouldn't be double targetting.

When I get a moment I'll do a Rico-esque post, but I'm looking at the following in particular so far today: boo, llama, elohcin, cookie, MM. I don't agree with the points raised on BR or lacey yet so I'd have to be convinced, and don't see any reason to suspect anyone else right now.

I've been really sick - up during the night, sleeping during the day, I'm not in good shape. I'm trying to contribute as much as I can so sorry if its not as much as I would like, hopefully it passes in a day or two.
I'm not 'caught up in it', but surely you can see it makes a lot of sense of events. I'm not making an 'assumption', I am making a theory, one which I find convincing enough that you are my likeliest candidate for a vote.

Technically a theory is an assumption. More evidential than a guess, and less absolute than a fact.

As far as "sticking with you", I'm fine, thank you. You're asking me to trust you because you think boo and I had something going on. And if your thread of logic relies on me being confused as to why Golden was alive, that thread is quite thin, my boy!

If I were bad, and if I were on a team 2, and if I killed on even nights, this would mean:
-golden died on my watch, who may very well be bad.
-timmer died on my watch, who I actually wanted to remain in the game since we had a nice rapport
-SVS died on my watch, who was very bad
-Bass died on my watch, who was civ. He could have targeted the bad version of me last night, and died. Though I didn't get a kill in. That's plain odd, unless I was blocked, which I was not. Another theory in this universe is I killed him before he could target anyone. Otherwise if he hid behind a civ, he wouldn't have perished.

The only glaring piece of Intel is Bass'. I can totally see how this would make you think I am bad. But all I can offer in this frame-up is these are not the droids you are looking for.

I do think the serial killer/whoever killed SVS is someone that trusts what I have been saying.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:49 am**

Cookie 2 wrote:LOL, I keep expect to come in here and find myself dead. I always tend to lose interest when i am a civ and get suspected for silly reasons. So sorry to the hostesses for the skatey-eight millionth time

In any case gonna do the unpopular thing here & vote for Dom. He is lying about the whole "I can't see why someone would think there is an unkillable baddie" thing, and he couldn't have been roleplaying real Dom with that post since I am sure REAL Dom has had that role in his games. So my only conjecture as to why he said that lie was in order to use it as a basis for suspicion of me, whereas if he were a civ, he would have either not mentioned his thoughts on that topic if he suspected me, or he would have agreed with me that it was a possibility. Even if he was roleplaying a non local player, like pretending to be sig or Wilgy, someone not familiar with that role, I still don't think he would have specifically used that point to build suspicion with on me (or anyone, really). I think he was looking for a hook, and he used that. And civvies don't need hooks.

Not that that argument matters anymore, but it is why i am really pretty sure that he is bad. Becasue I can't find a civvie reason for him to say that with my super strong belief about who he is in reality. And I think that I am a pretty good guesser when it comes to that stuff

Voting Dom cause he's bad.

Have you read my explanations about why I think that way? Let me point out the various unkillable baddies I have seen, and the circumstances behind them.

a) A baddie that can't be lynched until all of his teammates have been lynched. I agree that this is particular one is not uncommon, but it is an incredibly powerful role, and one that I do not expect to see in this game because of the fact that roles weren't originally revealed.
b) A baddie that cannot be lynched or nightkilled at all. The disclaimer for this one is that the civilians did not need him dead to win, so his immunity didn't play a major role. The setup doesn't really allow for this role to exist.
c) A baddie who, rather than dying, switches alignment every time he is lynched/killed. This was a stranger implementation of the role, because as mafia, this role did not know who its teammates were, but did get a kill to use on nights he was bad. While his immunity played a big part, his alignment played a bigger part. I highly doubt this type of role is present in this game.

The basis for my suspicion of you has nothing to do with the question you asked me. My suspicion of you came before your suspicion of me (for those keeping score at home), and I think your question was a legitimate one. But you've continued to push the suspicion of me without acknowledging my responses to your question.

I know you know who I am, and I know you know that I know who you are. I like to use logic when I play. It doesn't usually work, but sometimes it's applicable, and logically, there is unlikely an "unlynchable" baddie. Also, I am surprised you still think that I am bad, especially today. I thought it was plainly obvious who I am.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:57 am**

Cookie 2 wrote:I am amazed to find myself alive. I have had internet issues for a few days, but barring more awful weather, should be OK now. I will catch up (it appears there were shenanigans? I think I expected to come back to day 7?).

In any case, sorry to the hosts and my fellow players.

I see that both Dom & Cobalt votes Golden, so something interesting must have happened. So did everyone else, so why not? I will vote Golden, too, since based on boos reveal, everything is definitely not as it seems, is it?

I also want to bring this vote-post up again Cookie.

Why did you follow mine and Cobalt's vote if you think that I am bad?

I know that Cobalt suspected me at one point in this game, but I guess he changed his mind one night. Didn't he do the same thing to you?

Also, how do you feel about Cobalt?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 6:02 pm**

Sig 2 wrote:@HOSTS, what if a hider hides behind a civvie but that civvie is NK'd, does the hider also die?

No.

Sig 2 wrote:What if a hider is targeted for a NK but is hiding behind someone else, does he die?

Yes.

Ricochet 2 wrote:Hosts - if Bass was blocked, would he know?

He is told successful or unsuccessful - not specifically if blocked or not.

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:@Hostesses: any missing PMs last night?

Yes, 2.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 6:27 pm**

OK, that's really useful. We know that these four reads were all legitimate.

One more, splints - if Bass checked someone and they were recruited the same night, what would the outcome be?

MM - on night four bass says he feels sorry MM feels ignored. On Day 5 MM is his friend. MM was checked night 4. With eloh dead on day 5, MM can only possibly be bad if splints answer to the question above is that Bass would get a 'civilian' outcome and survive.

Lacey - bass was going after lacey hard on day three, but then lacey was his new friend on day 4. So Lacey was checked night 3. With Eloh dead on day 5, this still leaves open the slight possibility of a recruit

Cobalt - ON night 3 we have this:

Bass 2 wrote:For what it's worth, I thought on Cobalt more after I voted him and decided that his tone wasn't "hiding" per se.

While this doesn't clear Synonym 2, as people have brought up the possibility of multiple baddie teams, it makes it pretty unlikely IMO that they were on the same team. Willingly turning Day 3 into a Syn 2 VS Long Con 2 debate would be a lose-lose for them.

Lacey 2 answer me, am I your friend? I like friends.

This suggests to me that Bass had checked cobalt on night one or two (probably night 2). There is a chance Cobalt could have been recruited.

Dom - clearly checked on night 6, so no chance of a recruit.

I also note that I get the sense that Bass wanted to check reywas on Night 5 and was possibly blocked. He posted on night 7, but given he neither died nor added to his friends list I'm guessing he never sent in a PM because he wasn't expecting an early night end.

Thankfully, Bass really left all his breadcrumbs very thoroughly, so if you do your own readback I'm sure you will all agree with my analysis.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:08 pm**

I am not sure what the rules on this would be, so if it's not allowed to be answered, then it's a bummer but:

llama 2: If anyone, who did you target last night?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:11 pm**

Follow up FS. If a baddie had a power, and inherited a kill, would you be counting that as 1 or 2 missed actions, for the purposes of my last question?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:20 pm**

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:I am not sure what the rules on this would be, so if it's not allowed to be answered, then it's a bummer but:

llama 2: If anyone, who did you target last night?

As much as I would love to play telephone, I am very sure that violates the info dumping policy.

Also, to what end do you want to know?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:24 pm**

Llama 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:I am not sure what the rules on this would be, so if it's not allowed to be answered, then it's a bummer but:

llama 2: If anyone, who did you target last night?
As much as I would love to play telephone, I am very sure that violates the info dumping policy.

Also, to what end do you want to know?

If you're a civilian with the role you've making it sound like you have, and you get lynched and do turn out to be that role, it would be handy to know.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:42 pm**

Rico 2, are the only 2 people you're really considering today llama 2 and Cookie 2, or is there anyone else?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:48 pm**

llama 2, I'm not really sure who you're leaning towards. Assuming you do not need to use your vote to try and save yourself, who would your top two choices be for your vote today?

If Rico 2 isn't in that top 2, do you suspect him at all?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:49 pm**

Epignosis 2, are you still with us? Any thoughts to share?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:49 pm**

MM2, do you have a clue now?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:52 pm**

Dom 2, on a scale of 1-13.7689, how weird did you find Cookie 2's vote for you?

Also, top 2 choices for lynch today? If Cookie 2 is one of the 2, can you please include a third.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:54 pm**

Cobalt 2, top 2 choices for this lynch?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:15 pm**

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Rico 2, are the only 2 people you're really considering today llama 2 and Cookie 2, or is there anyone else?

There really isn't, not today. There is a narrow band of people who can be bad, and that does include Sig, epi, and potentially cobalt. Those three I don't get particularly bad vibes from, enough to justify a vote ahead of the other two.

Although I strongly lean llama over cookie right now.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:23 pm**

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:llama 2, I'm not really sure who you're leaning towards. Assuming you do not need to use your vote to try and save yourself, who would your top two choices be for your vote today?

If Rico 2 isn't in that top 2, do you suspect him at all?

I'm not particularly leaning bad on him, but haven't given him a good read through.

Let me pose this to you- who do you currently view as being on SVS' team?

That might help me make a better decision.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:48 pm**

Llama 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:llama 2, I'm not really sure who you're leaning towards. Assuming you do not need to use your vote to try and save yourself, who would your top two choices be for your vote today?

If Rico 2 isn't in that top 2, do you suspect him at all?
I'm not particularly leaning bad on him, but haven't given him a good read through.

Let me pose this to you- who do you currently view as being on SVS' team?

That might help me make a better decision.

Golden 2 probably was.

Scotty 2 could go either way.

I'm not convinced LC2 was on that team.

For surviving players, the only people I don't think can be are me, MM2, Cobalt 2, and Dom 2.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:54 pm**

Ricochet 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Rico 2, are the only 2 people you're really considering today llama 2 and Cookie 2, or is there anyone else?
There really isn't, not today. There is a narrow band of people who can be bad, and that does include Sig, epi, and potentially cobalt. Those three I don't get particularly bad vibes from, enough to justify a vote ahead of the other two.

Although I strongly lean llama over cookie right now.

I'd agree with that, between llama 2 and Cookie 2, I think it would a mistake to go with Cookie 2.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:59 pm**

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:
Ricochet 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Rico 2, are the only 2 people you're really considering today llama 2 and Cookie 2, or is there anyone else?
There really isn't, not today. There is a narrow band of people who can be bad, and that does include Sig, epi, and potentially cobalt. Those three I don't get particularly bad vibes from, enough to justify a vote ahead of the other two.

Although I strongly lean llama over cookie right now.
I'd agree with that, between llama 2 and Cookie 2, I think it would a mistake to go with Cookie 2.

You're sure whistling a different tune. Cookie can't give you milk like a llama can. Not much milk, but milk nonetheless.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:12 pm**

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:I am not sure what the rules on this would be, so if it's not allowed to be answered, then it's a bummer but:

llama 2: If anyone, who did you target last night?

This cannot be answered bc it would be rule breaking. Night actions can only be brought forward with thread evidence.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:13 pm**

Llama 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:
Ricochet 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Rico 2, are the only 2 people you're really considering today llama 2 and Cookie 2, or is there anyone else?
There really isn't, not today. There is a narrow band of people who can be bad, and that does include Sig, epi, and potentially cobalt. Those three I don't get particularly bad vibes from, enough to justify a vote ahead of the other two.

Although I strongly lean llama over cookie right now.
I'd agree with that, between llama 2 and Cookie 2, I think it would a mistake to go with Cookie 2.
You're sure whistling a different tune. Cookie can't give you milk like a llama can. Not much milk, but milk nonetheless.

I don't like Sig 2's reasons, because he's lying about things. That doesn't mean there are no reasons, and they hold up better than the reasons for Cookie 2 being bad.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:15 pm**

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Epignosis 2, are you still with us? Any thoughts to share?

I'm here finally, I will need to look things over we had some very early votes this phase which is strange.

@Lipsticklacey 2 could you tell me why your voting for Sig 2 or why should I vote for him?

Bass 2 do we know what his role did? am I correct in saying his role lets him hide behind civilians, and when he hides behind a mafia member he will die? This means we might not have even had a kill last night and he might have hid behind someone and died or he was just killed. His top two were Llama and Sig, what I don't understand then why was there only one death? Bass 2 death wouldn't have counted for the mafia's kill right? This being night 8 was the night that the mafia has been killed in.
If Bass hid behind a SK would he still be killed or no?

I don't like this post from Sig 2, he also very quickly jumps on Llama 2 this could be becasue he thought he found something or because he is scum and trying to set up a lynch. Thoughts on this?

Sig 2 wrote:Hey I'm here. I've been on holidays for the last week but kept up as best I could. My tunneling on LC2 should be enough to show my civvie Ness I would think, but either way I should start contributing more once I've settled in tomorrow. For now I need to rest my poor neck.

What Bass has said about Llama is damning, however I'm not sure, Llama gives a good counter and I started to feel off about Sig awhile ago. Sig also jumped on Llama very quickly.

What I need to know is this, if Bass hid behind a Serial Killer/Independent would he die or is that only if he hides behind mafia? IF he would die no matter who he hides behind if they aren't civilian then I have a theory.

Cookie why are you voting for Dom?

I will most likely be voting for either Sig or Llama I'm just not sure which yet.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:16 pm**

what are people even talking about, i feel so out of it.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:21 pm**

Ricochet 2 wrote:OK, that's really useful. We know that these four reads were all legitimate.

One more, splints - if Bass checked someone and they were recruited the same night, what would the outcome be?

It would be all about the timing.

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Follow up FS. If a baddie had a power, and inherited a kill, would you be counting that as 1 or 2 missed actions, for the purposes of my last question?

You mean if they failed to send a PM at all?

2.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:22 pm**

Epignosis 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Epignosis 2, are you still with us? Any thoughts to share?
I'm here finally, I will need to look things over we had some very early votes this phase which is strange.

@Lipsticklacey 2 could you tell me why your voting for Sig 2 or why should I vote for him?

Bass 2 do we know what his role did? am I correct in saying his role lets him hide behind civilians, and when he hides behind a mafia member he will die? This means we might not have even had a kill last night and he might have hid behind someone and died or he was just killed. His top two were Llama and Sig, what I don't understand then why was there only one death? Bass 2 death wouldn't have counted for the mafia's kill right? This being night 8 was the night that the mafia has been killed in.
If Bass hid behind a SK would he still be killed or no?

I don't like this post from Sig 2, he also very quickly jumps on Llama 2 this could be becasue he thought he found something or because he is scum and trying to set up a lynch. Thoughts on this?

Sig 2 wrote:Hey I'm here. I've been on holidays for the last week but kept up as best I could. My tunneling on LC2 should be enough to show my civvie Ness I would think, but either way I should start contributing more once I've settled in tomorrow. For now I need to rest my poor neck.
What Bass has said about Llama is damning, however I'm not sure, Llama gives a good counter and I started to feel off about Sig awhile ago. Sig also jumped on Llama very quickly.

What I need to know is this, if Bass hid behind a Serial Killer/Independent would he die or is that only if he hides behind mafia? IF he would die no matter who he hides behind if they aren't civilian then I have a theory.

Cookie why are you voting for Dom?

I will most likely be voting for either Sig or Llama I'm just not sure which yet.

Based on what FS has said, Bass 2 would have died if there target was any alignment other than civilian, including independents/a SKer. Yes, you have what Bass 2's role did correct.

I voted for Sig 2 because he spread misinformation, and I think it was an attempt to get an early bandwagon on llama 2.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:29 pm**

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Cobalt 2, top 2 choices for this lynch?

Man, it'd have to be llama 2. All signs point to early recruit.

The other? Tough to say, I have to think it over some more.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:39 pm**

Ok.

So SVS' team will be killing tonight; I would like to eliminate that team today if possible.

I acknowledge that if we take Bass 2's hints as gospel, we can assume that these people are not bad (or at least not on an original mafia team. They could still have been recruited by Elo after Bass looked at them):
-lacey
-MM
-Cobalt
-maybe Dom, though not circumstantiated

That leaves on an original team:
-Cookie
-Epi
-llama
-Rico
-sig

Based on voting records, I don't think Cookie is on SVS' mafia team.
I'm not certain yet either way with Epi, but I'm not getting bad vibes from him as of now.
I am a camelid.
Rico has a lot to say, and will look into him more.

But I feel worse about sig on that list. I voted for him on day 3, and will do so again today.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:42 pm**

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:
Llama 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:I am not sure what the rules on this would be, so if it's not allowed to be answered, then it's a bummer but:

llama 2: If anyone, who did you target last night?
As much as I would love to play telephone, I am very sure that violates the info dumping policy.

Also, to what end do you want to know?
If you're a civilian with the role you've making it sound like you have, and you get lynched and do turn out to be that role, it would be handy to know.

where is cookie, anyway?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:43 pm**

Roxy wrote:
Ricochet 2 wrote:OK, that's really useful. We know that these four reads were all legitimate.

One more, splints - if Bass checked someone and they were recruited the same night, what would the outcome be?
It would be all about the timing.

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Follow up FS. If a baddie had a power, and inherited a kill, would you be counting that as 1 or 2 missed actions, for the purposes of my last question?

You mean if they failed to send a PM at all?

2.

So, if Bass 2 sent in his PM first, and then the person was recruited, the result would have been civilian, and if not, Bass 2 would have died. I'm not sure this changes a whole lot, most of us Bass 2 vouched for could have been recruited after he checked us anyways, and we don't know for sure that he ever did check Dom 2 at all.

Yes, that was what I meant.

So, I think we have two options.

The first is we lynch llama 2.

If he is bad, I think both missing actions were a single person, who had been recruited by Elohcin 2, and that that is a second baddie team, and they missed their PM last night. We would lynch them next. In this scenario, Bass 2 was killed because they hid behind llama 2.

If he is good, that re-confirms 1 result Bass 2 had, imo, and we lynch Sig 2 next.

Or we lynch Sig 2.

If he's bad, we don't have the same information we get from llama 2 being bad. For me though, I think it's more likely Sig 2 is bad, so that's why this is my preference.

If Sig 2 is good, we lynch llama 2 next. Then we get the same information from lynching llama 2 that we would get from lynching him today anyways.

Unless there is anyone who doesn't think either of them is bad, which isn't the feeling I am getting, I do not think we need to worry about a third option.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:44 pm**

Llama 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:
Llama 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:I am not sure what the rules on this would be, so if it's not allowed to be answered, then it's a bummer but:

llama 2: If anyone, who did you target last night?
As much as I would love to play telephone, I am very sure that violates the info dumping policy.

Also, to what end do you want to know?
If you're a civilian with the role you've making it sound like you have, and you get lynched and do turn out to be that role, it would be handy to know.
where is cookie, anyway?

Why would I know?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:46 pm**

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:
Llama 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:
Llama 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:I am not sure what the rules on this would be, so if it's not allowed to be answered, then it's a bummer but:

llama 2: If anyone, who did you target last night?
As much as I would love to play telephone, I am very sure that violates the info dumping policy.

Also, to what end do you want to know?
If you're a civilian with the role you've making it sound like you have, and you get lynched and do turn out to be that role, it would be handy to know.
where is cookie, anyway?
Why would I know?

I swear I'm not info-dumping, I'm just asking questions.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:49 pm**

Cobalt 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Cobalt 2, top 2 choices for this lynch?
Man, it'd have to be llama 2. All signs point to early recruit.

The other? Tough to say, I have to think it over some more.

So you agree with the theory Ricochet 2 laid out, that Bass 2 targeted him, was killed because of it, and llama 2 was RBed last night as the even killer?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:54 pm**

I don't think it matters either way.

Llama's team killed him.
Or they were blocked, or it wasn't even llama's team, and he died as a hider.

To me, there is plenty of evidence to suggest llama is on whatever team SVS was not.

Interesting that Cobalt said 'all signs point to early recruit' though. I don't think it is clear whether there are two original bad teams, or just the one plus a recruit team. I did think llama could be outright bad, or a recruit, both are options for me.

Cobalt, are there specific reasons why you lean towards recruit?

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:57 pm**

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:
Epignosis 2 wrote:
Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Epignosis 2, are you still with us? Any thoughts to share?
I'm here finally, I will need to look things over we had some very early votes this phase which is strange.

@Lipsticklacey 2 could you tell me why your voting for Sig 2 or why should I vote for him?

Bass 2 do we know what his role did? am I correct in saying his role lets him hide behind civilians, and when he hides behind a mafia member he will die? This means we might not have even had a kill last night and he might have hid behind someone and died or he was just killed. His top two were Llama and Sig, what I don't understand then why was there only one death? Bass 2 death wouldn't have counted for the mafia's kill right? This being night 8 was the night that the mafia has been killed in.
If Bass hid behind a SK would he still be killed or no?

I don't like this post from Sig 2, he also very quickly jumps on Llama 2 this could be becasue he thought he found something or because he is scum and trying to set up a lynch. Thoughts on this?

Sig 2 wrote:Hey I'm here. I've been on holidays for the last week but kept up as best I could. My tunneling on LC2 should be enough to show my civvie Ness I would think, but either way I should start contributing more once I've settled in tomorrow. For now I need to rest my poor neck.
What Bass has said about Llama is damning, however I'm not sure, Llama gives a good counter and I started to feel off about Sig awhile ago. Sig also jumped on Llama very quickly.

What I need to know is this, if Bass hid behind a Serial Killer/Independent would he die or is that only if he hides behind mafia? IF he would die no matter who he hides behind if they aren't civilian then I have a theory.

Cookie why are you voting for Dom?

I will most likely be voting for either Sig or Llama I'm just not sure which yet.
Based on what FS has said, Bass 2 would have died if there target was any alignment other than civilian, including independents/a SKer. Yes, you have what Bass 2's role did correct.

I voted for Sig 2 because he spread misinformation, and I think it was an attempt to get an early bandwagon on llama 2.

Okay thanks this help, I still have about 16 hours to make up my mind so I'm going to think about it, right know I'm leaning for a Sig lynch over Llama, I think however sig flips assuming he is lynched we should consider a Llama lynch.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:01 pm**

I definitely favour a llama lynch to a sig lynch, and the more I think on it the more convinced I am that I'm right about llama. So that's the way I'm voting.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:16 pm**

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:24 pm**

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Dom 2, on a scale of 1-13.7689, how weird did you find Cookie 2's vote for you?

Also, top 2 choices for lynch today? If Cookie 2 is one of the 2, can you please include a third.

I said something about it already, but I didn't like it. Cookie has been hounding me over one comment for days. Then yesterday, she turns around and follows my vote because "weird stuff happened". Then she votes me again today.

The "weird stuff happened" smells incredibly like BTSC to me, in that she never read or responded to the things that happened themselves, but either knew or was told about it behind the scences.

I would give it a solid 11.5

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:29 pm**

I have to vote. I went with llama. I trust what Ricochet has brought forth on the matter.

Posted: **Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:57 pm**

Cookie 2 wrote:
Black Rock 2 wrote:
Synonym 2 wrote:
Black Rock 2 wrote:Welcome back and congrats on your rezz Golden 2, assuming of course that you are good. I'll be gone to see about the horses part of the day tomorrow but will be back in plenty of time for discussion.
What do you mean "assuming of course that you are good" he is writeup mod-confirmed as town are you serious

BR2 slipping into my scum reads.
What do you mean he is write-up mod-confirmed as town? You mean because his role was revealed as town? Wasn't there conversation earlier in the game about there being a possible seemer in this game because it was in the host survey? Personally, I will have some doubt about any death that is a civ death because of that risk. Something I learned from past mafia playing.
Personally, I agree that nothing is confirmed; I plan to take it on a case by case basis. I think it is rather unlikely, though possible. He seemed pretty civ to me.If we knew how many Mafias there were, we could get a better feel for this. If only one, it is especially unlikely that he is bad. It could be a crazy power ploy to gain a role civ cred, especially if the rezzer was on their team, but it would be a big risk to use up powers that way this early. Plus MOST of the time, the rezzer is a civ power. Someone had said earlier that they usually use the Seemer to throw doubt into a lynch, and I agree, but if a Seemer is NKed, they still use it.

But yeah, unknown roles, anything is possible, so even with Host posts, no one or nothing is confirmed for realz.

I am, as usual,planning to vote for Sig unless Syn melts down & calls me stupid again. I liked that so much!

This is a defense of Scumolden.

Cookie 2 wrote:
Long Con 2 wrote:You are correct, cookie. I was trying to begin discussion, not stifle it. The act that Synonym talked about the skin of his sock account doesn't bother me as much as him saying that there are five baddies among us. How would he know that unless he was one of them.
And for reference,this is the post that has me feeling most town about Long Con. Had it been me in this position, as a Mafia, at this point I would have agreed with Cookie (me) and latched onto her reasons for thinking Syn might be bad, and make my own secondary, thus being able to blame her for the eventual lynch of Synonym. Instead he blew off my thoughts, and reiterated his own. I don't see a baddie doing that, at least not an experienced one, and from his posts I think LC has been around the Mafia block.

I recall feeling this way very clearly since this was right after LC had asked me if *I* had any suspicions, which kind of freaked me out a bit. Why was he singling me out? But this reply made me feel all kinds of better.

For Syn, it is more of an over all tone. He sounds sincere about kidding around, and sincerely pissed, not faux baddie pissed. This post went far for me towards feeling that way:

Synonym 2 wrote:
Gamer Guy 2 wrote:Can we please lynch Sig tomorrow? Synonym, will you help me?
Why?

iirc he was one of the earliest to call Scum Con on his bullshit.
While I disagree with his conclusion (for me, anyone coming out and saying "I will vote/suspect anyone who votes/suspects *X* because of the stoopid ideas of *Y*", as sig did, ESPECIALLY on Day One when we ALL have stoopid ideas to be almost ALWAYS have been said by a Mafia) I can't imagine an actual Mafia Syn saying this about LC. He is coming out and saying that, in his opinion, LCs ideas are actually bullshit, not true. If he knew that Long Con was actually right, and Syn was bad, I don't know that he would have said this so baldly. Like i said, tone. But it reads sincere to me, even If I disagree with him here.

Personally I think we should all vote for Sig. Because now that I am thinking about it, I don't think I have EVER heard a town aligned player say something like: "I will vote/suspect anyone who votes/suspects *X* because of the stoopid ideas of *Y*". Have ANY of you ever said something like this when you are town? On Day One?

In any case, back later.

This is a defense of Scum Con.

The Syndicate

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