The Syndicate

MacDougall wrote:The fact that Zebra is dead gives me pause though. Since Zebs was already mislynched once killing her in this situation has a sense of spite to it. Bea, SVS I couldn't see killing her with at the very least super jerk MacDougall alive to kill. I also would imagine FZ wouldn't either.

A scum Golden has a lot to gain from her demise as well. She had a scum read on him all game. Today there are a lot of lynches he could push and has so it would be a good idea to get it out of the way on a low risk day for him. I got my eye on you goldilocks.

Golden wrote:I'm not scared of you mac. I'm House Atriedes, and I wouldn't have any objection to you using whatever means you had at your disposal to test me to prove it

I tend expect some kind of tactical approach to lynching. If Floyd was lynched instead of sig, how much better would sig AND th look? That's the kind of baddie move I'd be making. TH went to the championships on our behalf... and he spent his last day in the game talking about how terribly he has played. All of these baddies have played a game that (whether intentional or not) certainly makes floyd LOOK civvie - and that is my point.

I'm not sure why you would be eyeing me when there is only one harkonnen left (even acknowledging the concept of a traitor I just brought up). What is exactly your reason for thinking baddie golden would protect FZ and not be happy just to watch her go down?

I can see where you are coming up with this and you might actually be correct. I know I trust you Golden, so there's that as well. I never thought I would be voting Floyd b/c of the way the baddies have gone after him. But I see myself leaning that way atm.

I don't buy it. If the scum had a grand plan around making floyd look civ while sacrificing their own players all the power to them but I doubt it.

MacDougall wrote:I don't buy it. If the scum had a grand plan around making floyd look civ while sacrificing their own players all the power to them but I doubt it.

You might be right. I mean, it's just me guessing essentially, thinking what the most likely outcome is. I get good vibes from FZ. While TH's vote timings and post all felt completely wrong, FZs feel the opposite, to me.

Also, Floyd vote for MM is the most certain thing I've ever seen him to do in mafia. And the timing of it was right in there with sig and MM voting for him.

If it isn't one out of Floyd, Luke and FZ, I'll be surprised. Everyone else doesn't feel like a fit with harkonnen on one level or another. But for me the only thing that points to FZ is her vote record, not her posting.

When I get a moment, I am going to do an iso on each of FZ, floyd, luke, and also zebra for clues.

Golden wrote:

MacDougall wrote:I don't buy it. If the scum had a grand plan around making floyd look civ while sacrificing their own players all the power to them but I doubt it.

You might be right. I mean, it's just me guessing essentially, thinking what the most likely outcome is. I get good vibes from FZ. While TH's vote timings and post all felt completely wrong, FZs feel the opposite, to me.

Also, Floyd vote for MM is the most certain thing I've ever seen him to do in mafia. And the timing of it was right in there with sig and MM voting for him.

If it isn't one out of Floyd, Luke and FZ, I'll be surprised. Everyone else doesn't feel like a fit with harkonnen on one level or another. But for me the only thing that points to FZ is her vote record, not her posting.

Take a look at our little entanglement a page or two ago. Also her concession that she deserves to be lynched is the same thing that most said TH couldn't be civ for posting.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:We lose all the ties.

When MM said this....it was Day 3. The lynch was tied between sig and Floyd. So a dead MM (still paying attention to the game and conspiring with his team supposedly) tries to make Floyd out to be civ. It was soon after this post that TH began going after Floyd. I do see a possibility of talk in BTSC where they decided to have MM post this and then TH go after floyd to help him have civ cred. Floyd has not been very active this game and I suppose if he is bad that he is not very active in BTSC as well. I can see TH and MM coming up with this plan to try and keep TH around longer and have him look civ.

Or we lucked on a couple of lynches early game and scum teammates tried to prevent them by ganging up on Floyd but failed in coin flips and it blew up in their face.

Floyd:

Against

Spent day 1 avoiding questions about what his item (the poison snooper) actually did. Not even vague questions. Direct questions. And he wouldn't even answer them to confirm it does something. The only other person to get it is banana, who isn't around, so we don't know what it does. Suddenly, and literally in his first post after MM died, floyd says that his snooper protects from poisoning. This reads very much to me like he deliberately did not want it out there that there was a poisoner (because they were on the same team). It also makes a LOT of sense to me that a team with a poisoner would target the poison snooper to find out what it is.

Floyd's day one self vote to avoid being on either civilian bandwagon.

Floyd's remarkable certainty on the MM vote (I've never seen him appear this certain of anything in his mafia career - mind you I've never seen him be civ). This post expresses this, when FZ asks how he can call MM's posts baseless compared to his own posts:

TheFloyd73 wrote:Linki: FZ? Seriously? Have a read over his past 15 posts.

The massive bandwagon from his own teammates to lynch him instead of MM. For FZ to be bad, literally every single baddie would have had to jump on the bandwagon to save their own teammate, at the expense of a civilian. This is what I would have to term one of the stupidest moves of all time if true. This favours floyd being bad, rather than FZ, for me.

When he votes for sig he indicates he doesn't think sig is bad. He votes early for TH but reserves his right to change it (if his teamie isn't going down?)

As a poisoner, MM seems important. Floyd's role may have felt less important. Perhaps a sacrifice they were willing to make to up their chances.

in favour

The only thing I find in favour is the fact that he would have to have been hella bussed. It would have to be a cred plan. But I mean, I find this more credible than the idea that all four people would hand themselves to us on a silver platter on day two by trying to save MM. That plan would look even more stupid when they would then have to know Floyd was civ, so it wouldn't even get them cred.

Conclusion

Having read Floyd's iso, I'll be blown away if he isn't the droid we are looking for. The entire thing read like he was on the mafia team from start to finish. I'll still do the rest, but that reads so bad.

@Mac - TH and FZ are two different people, both of whom I feel I have a good read on generally. The apparent 'same behaviour' looks bad to me from TH, and good to me from FZ. Because I know their games.

Anyway, I haven't done my FZ iso yet. But just looking at that day two lynch. Really? All four pile on to save MM? When Floyd would have come back civ? I've never seen a baddie team do anything that stupid.

Yes you make a valid point.

MacDougall wrote:I don't buy it. If the scum had a grand plan around making floyd look civ while sacrificing their own players all the power to them but I doubt it.

I was going to say you were wrong because they weren't the ones who started the votes on Floyd. If he's bad, they were just taking advantage of a stinky situation.
But, I looked again at the two lynches of MM and Sig and I actually think it's not likely.
Floyd was the third to vote for MM, when he himself only had one vote on him. He could have waited to see who was getting the votes and only if it was between him and MM, go for the MM option. Why push for the MM lynch, your alleged team mate? People were still debating.
We have 3 confirmed baddies voting for Floyd. It seems suicidal if MM gets lynched at the end, but maybe they just figured that's what we'd think. That part is still bothering me.

And then when Sig was being lynched, it seems like Floyd was really trying to save himself, because Sig wasn't considered bad at the time. It was just forced votes. So it was between Floyd and Sig. He put his vote on Sig when he got 3 votes.


Bea comes off looking bad from the Sig lynch. She was the last one to place her vote, and like I said, if Floyd came out civ and Sig was saved from a tie, it wouldn't make anyone look too bad, because everyone who voted for Floyd, could be seen as trying to save Sig who didn't really look bad to anyone.
Blooper also comes off looking bad because she was suspicious of Sig before, even noted it, but voted for Floyd just the same.

SVS, can you please explain why you think Bea is a civ?
In addition, whoever said Bloop feels okay, can you explain why?

Last but not least, Luke, who is acting weird and I can't decide if it's because it's his first game or because he's bad.

MacDougall wrote:Yes you make a valid point.

The most persuasive bit for me is the poison thing. What do you make of that?

Golden wrote:

MacDougall wrote:Yes you make a valid point.

The most persuasive bit for me is the poison thing. What do you make of that?

The thing is, unlike us, they had to know Sorsha was sitting on some information. I don't know, when I'm bad, which is not the case now, when I recognize a team mate has been caught by solid information, I'd buss him as fast as I can, because this is something that won't go away next day. With Floyd, things could get better as the game progressed. So trying to save MM at the expense of Floyd doesn't really seem logical to me.

FZ. wrote:

MacDougall wrote:I don't buy it. If the scum had a grand plan around making floyd look civ while sacrificing their own players all the power to them but I doubt it.

I was going to say you were wrong because they weren't the ones who started the votes on Floyd. If he's bad, they were just taking advantage of a stinky situation.
But, I looked again at the two lynches of MM and Sig and I actually think it's not likely.
Floyd was the third to vote for MM, when he himself only had one vote on him. He could have waited to see who was getting the votes and only if it was between him and MM, go for the MM option. Why push for the MM lynch, your alleged team mate? People were still debating.
We have 3 confirmed baddies voting for Floyd. It seems suicidal if MM gets lynched at the end, but maybe they just figured that's what we'd think. That part is still bothering me.

And then when Sig was being lynched, it seems like Floyd was really trying to save himself, because Sig wasn't considered bad at the time. It was just forced votes. So it was between Floyd and Sig. He put his vote on Sig when he got 3 votes.


Bea comes off looking bad from the Sig lynch. She was the last one to place her vote, and like I said, if Floyd came out civ and Sig was saved from a tie, it wouldn't make anyone look too bad, because everyone who voted for Floyd, could be seen as trying to save Sig who didn't really look bad to anyone.
Blooper also comes off looking bad because she was suspicious of Sig before, even noted it, but voted for Floyd just the same.

SVS, can you please explain why you think Bea is a civ?
In addition, whoever said Bloop feels okay, can you explain why?

Last but not least, Luke, who is acting weird and I can't decide if it's because it's his first game or because he's bad.

I really cannot say for certain why I think that. Suffice it to say that I never trust Bea, and if I have the chance to check her out, I do. I read her posts very thoroughly, looking to separate the truth from the lies, and I found no lies. I know her very very well, and I don't see bad Bea.

Floyd as civ would be a new thing. He has played the same lurky odd game in all three games.

He could just as easily have waited to say what it was for a perceived town advantage. If he straight up says that there is an item that disrupts the poisoner he paints a target on his chest right?

In actuality that could be why the scum tried so hard to get him lynched just assuming it was a protective counter to their poisoner.

FZ. wrote:

Golden wrote:

MacDougall wrote:Yes you make a valid point.

The most persuasive bit for me is the poison thing. What do you make of that?

The thing is, unlike us, they had to know Sorsha was sitting on some information. I don't know, when I'm bad, which is not the case now, when I recognize a team mate has been caught by solid information, I'd buss him as fast as I can, because this is something that won't go away next day. With Floyd, things could get better as the game progressed. So trying to save MM at the expense of Floyd doesn't really seem logical to me.

Trying to save MM at all doesn't seem logical, but they did.

MacDougall wrote:Floyd as civ would be a new thing. He has played the same lurky odd game in all three games.

He could just as easily have waited to say what it was for a perceived town advantage. If he straight up says that there is an item that disrupts the poisoner he paints a target on his chest right?

In actuality that could be why the scum tried so hard to get him lynched just assuming it was a protective counter to their poisoner.

That's a fair point.

FZ. wrote:Bea comes off looking bad from the Sig lynch. She was the last one to place her vote, and like I said, if Floyd came out civ and Sig was saved from a tie, it wouldn't make anyone look too bad, because everyone who voted for Floyd, could be seen as trying to save Sig who didn't really look bad to anyone.

>snip<

SVS, can you please explain why you think Bea is a civ?

I'm not SVS obviously, but I've personally changed my mind on bea. Knowing that her pizza/football storm was a work thing, not a play thing, puts a dent into my case on her. I believe we should look elsewhere.

I think it is kind of admirable that FZ is defending Floyd when he is the most viable alternative to an FZ vote, and again speaks well of her affiliation to me.

MacDougall wrote:Floyd as civ would be a new thing. He has played the same lurky odd game in all three games.

Lol. Are you saying Floyd has been bad in the other two games he's played?

Anyway, let's assume we don't lynch FZ today. How many civilians need to be lynched before we go back to her and say "Oh hey that's right, you attempted to save all the bad guys" ? One, two, three? More?

@Matt I'm focussed on finding the last Harkonnen. If you think that has to be FZ, then vote your way. The more I read, the more convinced I am that it is unlikely to be FZ. For me, I think it is more likely to be either luke or floyd.

Interestingly, of the three candidates, Luke is the only one zebra called scum in gth reads. TH had a scum read on both floyd and luke, but not FZ. FZ had that odd 'indy' read on TH.

Golden wrote:@Matt I'm focussed on finding the last Harkonnen. If you think that has to be FZ, then vote your way. The more I read, the more convinced I am that it is unlikely to be FZ. For me, I think it is more likely to be either luke or floyd.

Interestingly, of the three candidates, Luke is the only one zebra called scum in gth reads. TH had a scum read on both floyd and luke, but not FZ. FZ had that odd 'indy' read on TH.

I think it's quite possible that it's FZ, but I'm not convinced yet. I'm just curious, though, how many civilians would have to be lynched before you started looking at FZ again, if at all?

That's a really good question, tbh.

I have no answer to that question. On any given day I'm going to lynch the person I think is most likely to be Harkonnen. If on one day I think it is FZ, she will be my vote. I still haven't done her iso yet today, so there is more to come yet.

But tell me - do you think it likely that literally all four of the baddie team pile on to floyd, who in this scenario has to be civ, to try to save MM? Doesn't that seem immensely stupid, to you?

S~V~S wrote:That's a really good question, tbh.

I disagree. If FZ isn't bad, the fact she has defended all the baddies is irrelevant.

Matt's question amounts to this - "Golden, I'm subtly trying to ask if you have info on FZ". The answer is no. As I said to zebra, I'm not a cop. I'm working on what is in the thread.

Nevertheless, I trust certain things. What if, for example, Sorsha came out tomorrow saying we absolutely should not lynch FZ. Would I still go ahead and vote for FZ? Probably not. I don't know if sorsha is actually an info role, but because Sorsha has been right about a lot, I would trust her (and believe that it might be info).

Golden wrote:I have no answer to that question. On any given day I'm going to lynch the person I think is most likely to be Harkonnen. If on one day I think it is FZ, she will be my vote. I still haven't done her iso yet today, so there is more to come yet.

But tell me - do you think it likely that literally all four of the baddie team pile on to floyd, who in this scenario has to be civ, to try to save MM? Doesn't that seem immensely stupid, to you?

As I said in the case against Turnip, "being stupid" seems to be the new sly move.

As for saving MM, what's the difference between 3 of them trying to save MM and 4 of them trying to save MM? If we know three of them did, what's to say the team didn't decide to go all in because, as you pointed out, "that would be soooooo stupid so there's no way that could've happened."

I dunno.

Elohcin - If you had to pick one player still in the game who you think would try to kill you, who would that player be?

Linki - No, Golden, that's not what my question amounts to. In fact, that question was directed to everyone at first, but since you were in the thread, I decided to ask you directly, as well.

Well, Matt. Put aside FZ. Who would you vote for, Floyd or Luke?

Golden wrote:Well, Matt. Put aside FZ. Who would you vote for, Floyd or Luke?

Floyd, I guess. But I don't really like either. I do think your case is well thought out, though.

Golden wrote:

S~V~S wrote:That's a really good question, tbh.

I disagree. If FZ isn't bad, the fact she has defended all the baddies is irrelevant.

Matt's question amounts to this - "Golden, I'm subtly trying to ask if you have info on FZ". The answer is no. As I said to zebra, I'm not a cop. I'm working on what is in the thread.

Nevertheless, I trust certain things. What if, for example, Sorsha came out tomorrow saying we absolutely should not lynch FZ. Would I still go ahead and vote for FZ? Probably not. I don't know if sorsha is actually an info role, but because Sorsha has been right about a lot, I would trust her (and believe that it might be info).

But in the more likely event that that does NOT happen, how many civilians would have to be lynched before you would be willing to vote for FZ?

Matt F wrote:As for saving MM, what's the difference between 3 of them trying to save MM and 4 of them trying to save MM? If we know three of them did, what's to say the team didn't decide to go all in because, as you pointed out, "that would be soooooo stupid so there's no way that could've happened."

The difference is between them getting civ cred for lynching floyd, or getting no cred for lynching him because he was a civ. That's a massive difference.

@SVS - Why is this a good question? I'm not going to put a day on 'when I'll lynch FZ'. In a game where things have happened each and every day that make me more confident about things, I'm not ruling out something happening tomorrow that leads me either to rule out FZ, or to make me want to lynch her more. I don't have an answer. All I can do is talk about the evidence I have today, right now, for whether I want to lynch her today. I haven't even isoed her yet.

Well then perhaps you should.

S~V~S wrote:Well then perhaps you should.

Well, what is your own view on FZ, Floyd and luke?

Honestly, I'm not sure why I'm getting a 'tude from you when I'm actually (as far as I can see) the only one putting work in in this thread to try and figure it out?

I think FZ could be bad.

I think Floyd & Luke are nubs and hard to judge by the standards with which we judge each other. And you know me, I pay attention to those i suspect, and not as much to everyone else.

Let me ask you a question. Do you hold the same degree of certainly about FZ that i hold about Bea? Be honest with me here.

Linki, What "tude"? Matt asked you a question you seem unwilling to answer it.

Oops. Turnip Head being on the poll is a mistake, right?

Also, it looks like Luke has been removed from the poll today.

S~V~S wrote:I think FZ could be bad.

I think Floyd & Luke are nubs and hard to judge by the standards with which we judge each other. And you know me, I pay attention to those i suspect, and not as much to everyone else.

Let me ask you a question. Do you hold the same degree of certainly about FZ that i hold about Bea? Be honest with me here.

Linki, What "tude"? Matt asked you a question you seem unwilling to answer it.

No, I definitely don't hold the same degree of certainty you hold about bea. This is why I'm trying to make clear that I don't have a 'number of days' thing.

Who would answer Matt's question? I disagree with you that it was a 'good' question. It's a question that, in fact, has no good answer, other than for me to claim info. It also starts by presuming that outcomes that are not FZ won't end the game.

My truest answer is 'if we don't lynch FZ today, NO civilians have to die, because we could lynch the last harkonnen and win. On the other hand, if we lynch FZ today, I think at least one civilian has to die, before we win." That would be the truest answer I could give.

But, as I say, this is not me having a bea level of certainty. It's just what I think is going on.

@Matt - well, that certainly makes life easier. My vote today will only be for either floyd or FZ. Lets hope luke isn't the baddie.

Golden wrote:Honestly, I'm not sure why I'm getting a 'tude from you when I'm actually (as far as I can see) the only one putting work in in this thread to try and figure it out?

What an unfair thing to say.

MacDougall wrote:

Golden wrote:Honestly, I'm not sure why I'm getting a 'tude from you when I'm actually (as far as I can see) the only one putting work in in this thread to try and figure it out?

What an unfair thing to say.

I don't think, when I've clearly done an iso on floyd and luke and zebra, and have said I will so one on FZ, that it is at all unfair to respond that way to this response to me saying I haven't isoed FZ yet:

S~V~S wrote:Well then perhaps you should.

I find that to be on the nose.

(Unless you mean 'mac is putting work in'. Sure, but mac isn't criticising me while not doing work. Matt and SVS are. Perhaps I should have said 'when those criticising me aren't putting in that work'.)

Um I don't think I was criticizing you, Golden.

Anyway, I was thinking about taking up the herculean task of ISOing MM, sig, and TH, and cross reference who they spoke with, who they suspected, who they said was good, and who they didn't mention at all. I might start that in a sec.

Oh, thank god, breakthrough.

I now do have bea levels of certainty on FZ.

Voting floyd.

Matt F wrote:Um I don't think I was criticizing you, Golden.

Anyway, I was thinking about taking up the herculean task of ISOing MM, sig, and TH, and cross reference who they spoke with, who they suspected, who they said was good, and who they didn't mention at all. I might start that in a sec.

@Matt - either floyd or luke is the last harkonnen. Luke isn't on the poll. Do the work if you like, but I would lynch a million civs before lynching FZ.

I just had a quick look at a few pages. Floyd is also my vote. While the logic looks bizarre the thread evidence is not there for anyone else. All other players are genuine. Even niju and Luke.

MacDougall wrote:I just had a quick look at a few pages. Floyd is also my vote. While the logic looks bizarre the thread evidence is not there for anyone else. All other players are genuine. Even niju and Luke.

Thanks mac.

I agree. I have been doing the iso on FZ, and its a mammoth task. I don't think the thread evidence is there for her either. I'm not quite seeing what you are on luke, but it seems much more strongly against floyd than it seems against luke.

You would lynch a million civs before lynching FZ?

Really?

I pretty much give up then. Whatever.

Golden wrote:Oh, thank god, breakthrough.

I now do have bea levels of certainty on FZ.

Voting floyd.

Can you please explain? FZ has pretty much gone against every baddie lynch we have had in this game so far.

Actually on second thought I think Luke looks worse than Floyd but alas he isn't on the poll so bummer.

Even just quote the post(s) that gave you your breakthrough so we can work it out for ourselves..

Golden, I don't know how we can play in the same thread when you say things like you would rather lynch a million civs than someone you personally don;t suspect.

that does not even make any sense. And this is coming from me, a person who has a high tolerance for lack of sense making.

Sorsha wrote:

Golden wrote:Oh, thank god, breakthrough.

I now do have bea levels of certainty on FZ.

Voting floyd.

Can you please explain? FZ has pretty much gone against every baddie lynch we have had in this game so far.

OK, but if floyd is bad she has also been ON baddie lynches, right?

Have a look at my case on Floyd, I think its good for explaining how I think those lynches went down and why I don't think FZ would be bad. Honestly, the day 2 lynch happening like it did if FZ is bad? I just don't see that happening in any world. Have you ever seen that happen!?

Otherwise, just remember I trusted you on MM, I trust SVS on bea, I think its time to trust me on FZ. That doesn't necessarily have to mean you vote floyd.

S~V~S wrote:Golden, I don't know how we can play in the same thread when you say things like you would rather lynch a million civs than someone you personally don;t suspect.

that does not even make any sense. And this is coming from me, a person who has a high tolerance for lack of sense making.

How many civs would you lynch before bea?