The Syndicate

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:MM, the only problem I see with that is that sig just said before he believes a civ vigilante wouldn't kill Epi or Silver:

sig wrote:Actually never mind C is still viable just looked back there is a regular vig. However, I highly doubt it since neither Silver nor Epi make sense for that.

My vote was directed at him, not you.

Oops, I did what I specifically don't want people doing when I throw out pressure votes. Sorry.

I have a serious addiction problem.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
An argument could made for practically anyone killing Epi/Silver, and I find this point highly ironic considering:
(1) Silverwolf was turning around on you quite a bit at the end there
(2) You were just on a scum team with Epi in Turf Wars

So... yeah.

She never changed her scum read on you, nice misrepresentation
and the second point has no relevance

MovingPictures07 wrote:RIP Frog, Silverwolf, and Epignosis.

I presume this means we're playing with a 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante.

If I were around for that EoD madness (which I'm sad I missed out on), I would have supported the Frog lynch and possibly moved my vote.

I need to conduct some more ISOs, look at those votes, and reevalaute, but note that I'm not sure my activity will be nearly as strong going forward. I'll try my best, but I didn't study enough this past weekend (obviously) due to sacrificing time for mafia. For now, I'm around for like a half hour tops until the afternoon/evening. Who else is here?

This stood out to me. My initial reaction was that it was a Town Vigilante kill because I'm used to that over other secondary kill setups. But then I remembered that there were various other possibilities.

But why did you immediately assume this was a 1-shot mafia vigilante?

MM, what do you think of Sloonei? Has your mind changed at all or are you still placing him at the bottom of your list?

if theres a vig in the game they need to shoot in the MP/INYW/Sig grouping

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:If you have a counterargument and think that ika is actually bringing something to the table, MM, I'm all ears. But he hasn't explained a single "read" of his that he's thrown out and, frankly, I'm annoyed at his "playstyle".

Alright.

I just know I would never intentionally ignore someone in the game thread.

Try being the subject of his baseless accusations and then talk to me. I'm emotionally exhausted still from this nonsense last day phase. I won't actually ignore him; that's cruel, but I will be temporarily ignoring him and shifting my focus completely elsewhere if he doesn't engage me with content.

I know Marco suggested it before, but it's not necessary to repeat "I'm ignoring so-and-so". Instead, let's try to keep the content fresh and progressive.

If ika doesn't want to bring anything to the table, then we can leave it be. If he's going to, you can address it when it comes.

That said, I'm ready to move on from this topic. It's not productive at any point in the day, let alone 1.5 hours into the start of the day.

ika wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:
An argument could made for practically anyone killing Epi/Silver, and I find this point highly ironic considering:
(1) Silverwolf was turning around on you quite a bit at the end there
(2) You were just on a scum team with Epi in Turf Wars

So... yeah.

She never changed her scum read on you, nice misrepresentation
and the second point has no relevance

Misrepresentation? Uh, no.

And yeah the second point has relevance, I hosted that game. Epi knows your scum game better than anyone; you'd have plenty of incentive to kill him, assuming the kill was Mafia Vig.

I don't understand how you think your conclusions are always solid and no one else's (except Silverwolf) are worth considering.

Also, I can imagine Vigilante taking out Epignosis. While the Frog voters all had their own reasons, it definitely felt like Epignosis' vote was what resulted in the CFD. That along with Long Con's activity, I can imagine Vigilante killing Epi. Though it would have to be someone who's not used to being Vig. I think most people believe it's better to save their Vig kills for more conclusive targets. Epi had admittedly not caught up and I doubt a Vigilante would go after him last night even if they suspected him.

Marco wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:RIP Frog, Silverwolf, and Epignosis.

I presume this means we're playing with a 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante.

If I were around for that EoD madness (which I'm sad I missed out on), I would have supported the Frog lynch and possibly moved my vote.

I need to conduct some more ISOs, look at those votes, and reevalaute, but note that I'm not sure my activity will be nearly as strong going forward. I'll try my best, but I didn't study enough this past weekend (obviously) due to sacrificing time for mafia. For now, I'm around for like a half hour tops until the afternoon/evening. Who else is here?

This stood out to me. My initial reaction was that it was a Town Vigilante kill because I'm used to that over other secondary kill setups. But then I remembered that there were various other possibilities.

But why did you immediately assume this was a 1-shot mafia vigilante?

I addressed this in response to MM here:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:To add, what's currently swirling in my mind are the following questions:

1) Was either IAWY or MM (or both) being saved by the Frog train, or were they both townies as well? Given my moderate mafia read of the former and slight town of the latter, I'd suggest IAWY as more likely than MM, but who knows?

2) I'm not one for NKA, but naturally I still wonder: Who would have incentive to kill Silverwolf? Epignosis? Regarding Silver, my first guess is ika. Regarding Epi, I don't know. I need to mull over this more, but it might be meaningless to give it much thought because WIFOM.

3) Does EoD change my reads on any players? Well, Soneji's appearance needs to be ISOd, but other than that. I'm still frankly surprised by that Frog flip, so I'd like to read EoD again with that in mind.

As for me, I'll cast my first vote of the day on IAWY. I want to hear a thought from him (and Psi, but he has only posted twice).

VOTE INAWORDYES

With Silverwolf being nightkilled Night 1 for the second consecutive game, I don't think ika would have done it. That would be too cruel.

What makes you think it was a mafia vig and not a civ vig? Epignosis did almost single-handedly get Frog lynched, and without being caught up on the thread at all. I do think Silverwolf would have been a far less likely to be vigged by a civ.

Well, maybe, but Silverwolf was really starting to change her tune there regarding ika at the end. Isn't it still possible he knew she was onto him and he couldn't convince her so he gutted her for it? There are other possibilities though, for sure.

Oh, that's a really good point. I just saw both of the kill targets and immediately thought mafia vig, because as far as I can remember, nearly all of us were town reading Silver to at least some degree, and Epi seemed to take a strong presence in the thread given he replaced in very late in the phase. I didn't think about a town vig killing him for his Frog vote, that could be a possibility as well.

In addition, when I looked at the matrix, I saw more 1-Shot Mafia Vigilantes than Town Vigilante possibilities.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:If you have a counterargument and think that ika is actually bringing something to the table, MM, I'm all ears. But he hasn't explained a single "read" of his that he's thrown out and, frankly, I'm annoyed at his "playstyle".

Alright.

I just know I would never intentionally ignore someone in the game thread.

Try being the subject of his baseless accusations and then talk to me. I'm emotionally exhausted still from this nonsense last day phase. I won't actually ignore him; that's cruel, but I will be temporarily ignoring him and shifting my focus completely elsewhere if he doesn't engage me with content.

I know Marco suggested it before, but it's not necessary to repeat "I'm ignoring so-and-so". Instead, let's try to keep the content fresh and progressive.

If ika doesn't want to bring anything to the table, then we can leave it be. If he's going to, you can address it when it comes.

That said, I'm ready to move on from this topic. It's not productive at any point in the day, let alone 1.5 hours into the start of the day.

OK, you're right. I'm just still pissed off about the whole thing.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

ika wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:
An argument could made for practically anyone killing Epi/Silver, and I find this point highly ironic considering:
(1) Silverwolf was turning around on you quite a bit at the end there
(2) You were just on a scum team with Epi in Turf Wars

So... yeah.

She never changed her scum read on you, nice misrepresentation
and the second point has no relevance

Misrepresentation? Uh, no.

And yeah the second point has relevance, I hosted that game. Epi knows your scum game better than anyone; you'd have plenty of incentive to kill him, assuming the kill was Mafia Vig.

I don't understand how you think your conclusions are always solid and no one else's (except Silverwolf) are worth considering.

uh, yes, she never ever town read you not once. even at EOD she neevr even null read you

the second point has 0 relevance cus as you know yourslef, epi doesnt use meta, if he was going to scum red me off the game hes using meta. if you know me i would of killed someone like sloonie or zebra with a mafia extra.

i consider hers 10 times more right now cus she is a confirmed town flip. not only that but she was killed. porbally for her reads.

i dont listen to scums viewpoints. if you flip town i will reconsider but i dont do it till is ee the flips i want

Marco wrote:
But why did you immediately assume this was a 1-shot mafia vigilante?

hes scum, help me lynch him

Okay, ika, keep thinking that. I don't feel I have anything else to say on the matter right now.

Okay, shifting focus elsewhere. Let me ISO Soneji and then go from there.

Ika has dropped a few spots on my Rainbow list. Silverwolf didn't have much faith in ika as we got closer and closer to EoD yesterday. Earlier today I said I doubt that ika nightkilled Silverwolf, but I'm starting to have second thoughts on it now.

Silverwolf wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Silverwolf wrote:I'm leaving in 10 minutes. I feel like I'm losing my fight this game.

I really don't care who we lynch today because my strong townreads are not under consideration.

ika isn't saying much and this has me very concerned

IAWY-MP's points are a very superficial and amount to playstyle and I have him back at null

sig isn't making me feel good either

That's all I have.

At what point did ika's lack of providing content get you concerned? You weren't concerned when I cased him. Not starting the discussion again, I'm genuinely curious when you started becoming more harsh on him.

I can't elaborate without discussing ongoing but he's been back in town long enough to give good content. He's starting to post more now so we'll see. I'm not lynching him today but I was very concerned he wasn't posting here.

I really gotta go. I'll be back before EoD.

Silverwolf wrote:

ika wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Golden wrote:I should switch back to IAWY

Don't plz

DO IT GOLDEN ITS MUSICAL VOTES!

What are you doing?

Before the EoD, ika and Silverwolf townread each other pretty strongly, but Silverwolf's trust in ika began to wane as the day wore on. Then Silverwolf was nightkilled, and ika has latched onto her scumread of MP since then.

Ika, what do you think of Golden, Silverwolf's other top scumread?

Oops, meant to spoiler all of those quotes.

Ika has dropped a few spots on my Rainbow list. Silverwolf didn't have much faith in ika as we got closer and closer to EoD yesterday. Earlier today I said I doubt that ika nightkilled Silverwolf, but I'm starting to have second thoughts on it now.


Before the EoD, ika and Silverwolf townread each other pretty strongly, but Silverwolf's trust in ika began to wane as the day wore on. Then Silverwolf was nightkilled, and ika has latched onto her scumread of MP since then.

Ika, what do you think of Golden, Silverwolf's other top scumread?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Before the EoD, ika and Silverwolf townread each other pretty strongly, but Silverwolf's trust in ika began to wane as the day wore on. Then Silverwolf was nightkilled, and ika has latched onto her scumread of MP since then.

Ika, what do you think of Golden, Silverwolf's other top scumread?

im willing to persue that too but right now i want MP gone

Marco wrote:Also, I can imagine Vigilante taking out Epignosis. While the Frog voters all had their own reasons, it definitely felt like Epignosis' vote was what resulted in the CFD. That along with Long Con's activity, I can imagine Vigilante killing Epi. Though it would have to be someone who's not used to being Vig. I think most people believe it's better to save their Vig kills for more conclusive targets. Epi had admittedly not caught up and I doubt a Vigilante would go after him last night even if they suspected him.

I don't understand this. You start this train of thought with imagining the vig taking out Epignosis. You finish it with doubting a vig took him out. Did you change your mind along the way?

Silverwolf wrote:I'm really starting to hate the color red.

ika wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Before the EoD, ika and Silverwolf townread each other pretty strongly, but Silverwolf's trust in ika began to wane as the day wore on. Then Silverwolf was nightkilled, and ika has latched onto her scumread of MP since then.

Ika, what do you think of Golden, Silverwolf's other top scumread?

im willing to persue that too but right now i want MP gone

Like, expand your horizons man.



What do you think about Golden? Civilian? Scum? If one or the other, why so?

MovingPictures07 wrote:I addressed this in response to MM here:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Oh, that's a really good point. I just saw both of the kill targets and immediately thought mafia vig, because as far as I can remember, nearly all of us were town reading Silver to at least some degree, and Epi seemed to take a strong presence in the thread given he replaced in very late in the phase. I didn't think about a town vig killing him for his Frog vote, that could be a possibility as well.

Feels like an odd response to me, but maybe that's just from my own experience with Vanilla setups. I feel like 1-shot mafia vigilantes aren't all that common and most people's immediate response would be to assume the second kill was a Town Vigilante.

MovingPictures07 wrote:In addition, when I looked at the matrix, I saw more 1-Shot Mafia Vigilantes than Town Vigilante possibilities.

If you looked at the matrix before making that post and realized that there were Town Vigilante possibilities, then I'm even more surprised you presumed it was the 1-shot Mafia Vig. Especially since you're saying your initial reaction was that it was a mafia vig (for reasons you stated in response to MM). So, if you then went and checked the matrix, it feels weird that you would presume it was the mafia's doing instead of opening a discussion about whether it was town or mafia.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Oops, meant to spoiler all of those quotes.

Ika has dropped a few spots on my Rainbow list. Silverwolf didn't have much faith in ika as we got closer and closer to EoD yesterday. Earlier today I said I doubt that ika nightkilled Silverwolf, but I'm starting to have second thoughts on it now.

Spoiler: show

Silverwolf wrote:

ika wrote:

Silverwolf wrote:I'm leaving in 10 minutes. I feel like I'm losing my fight this game.

I really don't care who we lynch today because my strong townreads are not under consideration.

ika isn't saying much and this has me very concerned

IAWY-MP's points are a very superficial and amount to playstyle and I have him back at null

sig isn't making me feel good either

That's all I have.

silver if you had to name the sucm team right now who would it be? that and 2 outsider incase the 4 are wrong?

if they killyou n1 img onna agrro the thread

I don't know, it keeps changing.

Golden, MP are in the top running.

Maybe the low posters for the other two-like two of soneji, psit-whoever that is with 2 posts, IAWY, and there's an outside chance of metalmarsh-not agreeing with his sloonei case, and maybe sig but that's gut. I also hope Epi can post enough content because LC was a huge null read.

I also am worried about you ika. I want more from you. You are not giving your attention to this game at all.

Spoiler: show

Silverwolf wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Silverwolf wrote:I'm leaving in 10 minutes. I feel like I'm losing my fight this game.

I really don't care who we lynch today because my strong townreads are not under consideration.

ika isn't saying much and this has me very concerned

IAWY-MP's points are a very superficial and amount to playstyle and I have him back at null

sig isn't making me feel good either

That's all I have.

At what point did ika's lack of providing content get you concerned? You weren't concerned when I cased him. Not starting the discussion again, I'm genuinely curious when you started becoming more harsh on him.

I can't elaborate without discussing ongoing but he's been back in town long enough to give good content. He's starting to post more now so we'll see. I'm not lynching him today but I was very concerned he wasn't posting here.

I really gotta go. I'll be back before EoD.

Spoiler: show

Silverwolf wrote:

ika wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Golden wrote:I should switch back to IAWY

Don't plz

DO IT GOLDEN ITS MUSICAL VOTES!

What are you doing?

Before the EoD, ika and Silverwolf townread each other pretty strongly, but Silverwolf's trust in ika began to wane as the day wore on. Then Silverwolf was nightkilled, and ika has latched onto her scumread of MP since then.

Ika, what do you think of Golden, Silverwolf's other top scumread?

ika's behavior since the start of d2, if anything, makes me feel more strongly that he killed her and that he's, in desperation, trying to set me up and latching onto Silver's suspicion of me because he doesn't want to fabricate a different top mafia read. I recognize that's not the only explanation, but it's the one I most believe right now.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Marco wrote:Also, I can imagine Vigilante taking out Epignosis. While the Frog voters all had their own reasons, it definitely felt like Epignosis' vote was what resulted in the CFD. That along with Long Con's activity, I can imagine Vigilante killing Epi. Though it would have to be someone who's not used to being Vig. I think most people believe it's better to save their Vig kills for more conclusive targets. Epi had admittedly not caught up and I doubt a Vigilante would go after him last night even if they suspected him.

I don't understand this. You start this train of thought with imagining the vig taking out Epignosis. You finish it with doubting a vig took him out. Did you change your mind along the way?

I'm not sure what's not clear. I never said I believed that Town Vig killed Epignosis. I was just pointing out that I can imagine why Town Vig could've done so. I don't believe it was a Town Vigilante, but I should point out that when I first saw the Nightphase write-up, I immediately thought it was the Town Vig's kill and it wasn't until a couple seconds later that I remembered the other possibilities from the Matrix.

Marco wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:I addressed this in response to MM here:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Oh, that's a really good point. I just saw both of the kill targets and immediately thought mafia vig, because as far as I can remember, nearly all of us were town reading Silver to at least some degree, and Epi seemed to take a strong presence in the thread given he replaced in very late in the phase. I didn't think about a town vig killing him for his Frog vote, that could be a possibility as well.

Feels like an odd response to me, but maybe that's just from my own experience with Vanilla setups. I feel like 1-shot mafia vigilantes aren't all that common and most people's immediate response would be to assume the second kill was a Town Vigilante.

MovingPictures07 wrote:In addition, when I looked at the matrix, I saw more 1-Shot Mafia Vigilantes than Town Vigilante possibilities.

If you looked at the matrix before making that post and realized that there were Town Vigilante possibilities, then I'm even more surprised you presumed it was the 1-shot Mafia Vig. Especially since you're saying your initial reaction was that it was a mafia vig (for reasons you stated in response to MM). So, if you then went and checked the matrix, it feels weird that you would presume it was the mafia's doing instead of opening a discussion about whether it was town or mafia.

Well, these setups are pretty foreign to the site in general, me included, so I don't know what the natural inclination would be, since I don't have any. I'll take your word for what would be more common though.

Why would it be weird? I hadn't really thought it through, and I think that my train of thought as the day progressed can be seen in my posts. My instinct was Mafia Vig because I didn't think a Town Vig would kill Silver or Epi, I checked the matrix and saw more possibilities for Mafia Vig which reinforced my instinct, so that's what I posted. Didn't even think about a Town Vig wanting to kill Epi until MM brought up the reasoning.

I'd also like to know from Golden when he exactly started scum-reading Frog. He had Frog on his town list for majority of the phase, IIRC, and I remember being confused about his EOD switch to Frog.

Marco wrote:I'd also like to know from Golden when he exactly started scum-reading Frog. He had Frog on his town list for majority of the phase, IIRC, and I remember being confused about his EOD switch to Frog.

This is a good thought; I need to look back at EoD myself and try to uncover similar questions and/or discrepancies. I'd like to hear Golden's take as well.

Hey Marco, what thoughts do you have on Soneji right now? I'm working on the ISO and am curious what you think given you're more familiar with him than anyone.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Well, these setups are pretty foreign to the site in general, me included, so I don't know what the natural inclination would be, since I don't have any. I'll take your word for what would be more common though.

Do the games here generally not have Town Vigilante? Do you generally have multiple kills on Night 1? And if so, is it usually mafia doing so?

MovingPictures07 wrote:Why would it be weird? I hadn't really thought it through, and I think that my train of thought as the day progressed can be seen in my posts. My instinct was Mafia Vig because I didn't think a Town Vig would kill Silver or Epi, I checked the matrix and saw more possibilities for Mafia Vig which reinforced my instinct, so that's what I posted. Didn't even think about a Town Vig wanting to kill Epi until MM brought up the reasoning.

It seems uncharacteristic of you. You seem to be able to see the other face of the coin in all events. More importantly, you seem to make a point to inform others of this other face. What I mean is you're the kind of guy who seems to see how he can be wrong even when 95% sure about something. More importantly, you seem to be the kind of guy who clearly points out this 5% chance of being wrong (if you remember my post about your style of play and plausible deniability).

So, it feels strange to me that you couldn't see the possibility of Town Vig being responsible for one of the kills. Especially since you didn't even have a town read on Epi (null on Epi and slight scum-read on Long Con).

Marco wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Marco wrote:Also, I can imagine Vigilante taking out Epignosis. While the Frog voters all had their own reasons, it definitely felt like Epignosis' vote was what resulted in the CFD. That along with Long Con's activity, I can imagine Vigilante killing Epi. Though it would have to be someone who's not used to being Vig. I think most people believe it's better to save their Vig kills for more conclusive targets. Epi had admittedly not caught up and I doubt a Vigilante would go after him last night even if they suspected him.

I don't understand this. You start this train of thought with imagining the vig taking out Epignosis. You finish it with doubting a vig took him out. Did you change your mind along the way?

I'm not sure what's not clear. I never said I believed that Town Vig killed Epignosis. I was just pointing out that I can imagine why Town Vig could've done so. I don't believe it was a Town Vigilante, but I should point out that when I first saw the Nightphase write-up, I immediately thought it was the Town Vig's kill and it wasn't until a couple seconds later that I remembered the other possibilities from the Matrix.

Got it.

Marco wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Well, these setups are pretty foreign to the site in general, me included, so I don't know what the natural inclination would be, since I don't have any. I'll take your word for what would be more common though.

Do the games here generally not have Town Vigilante? Do you generally have multiple kills on Night 1? And if so, is it usually mafia doing so?

If we have multiple nightkills on a given night, it's usually because there is a serial killer/independent, not because of a town vig. There have been rare occurrences of a town vig here, but they are quite uncommon.

Marco wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Well, these setups are pretty foreign to the site in general, me included, so I don't know what the natural inclination would be, since I don't have any. I'll take your word for what would be more common though.

Do the games here generally not have Town Vigilante? Do you generally have multiple kills on Night 1? And if so, is it usually mafia doing so?

MovingPictures07 wrote:Why would it be weird? I hadn't really thought it through, and I think that my train of thought as the day progressed can be seen in my posts. My instinct was Mafia Vig because I didn't think a Town Vig would kill Silver or Epi, I checked the matrix and saw more possibilities for Mafia Vig which reinforced my instinct, so that's what I posted. Didn't even think about a Town Vig wanting to kill Epi until MM brought up the reasoning.

It seems uncharacteristic of you. You seem to be able to see the other face of the coin in all events. More importantly, you seem to make a point to inform others of this other face. What I mean is you're the kind of guy who seems to see how he can be wrong even when 95% sure about something. More importantly, you seem to be the kind of guy who clearly points out this 5% chance of being wrong (if you remember my post about your style of play and plausible deniability).

So, it feels strange to me that you couldn't see the possibility of Town Vig being responsible for one of the kills. Especially since you didn't even have a town read on Epi (null on Epi and slight scum-read on Long Con).

Let's not forget the presence of town roles in this game.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Marco, what thoughts do you have on Soneji right now? I'm working on the ISO and am curious what you think given you're more familiar with him than anyone.

I'm waiting for him to catch up before looking into him further, but as of yesterday's activity, I probably lean town on him for now.

Marco wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Well, these setups are pretty foreign to the site in general, me included, so I don't know what the natural inclination would be, since I don't have any. I'll take your word for what would be more common though.

Do the games here generally not have Town Vigilante? Do you generally have multiple kills on Night 1? And if so, is it usually mafia doing so?

Some games do. It really depends. The vast majority of games here historically have been unconventional open setup role madness games. It's all I played for most of my career. Only within the past year did we open up the Heist/Classic Mafia style of games after being exposed to the Mafia Championship and spending more time at RateYourMusic Mafia.

Multiple kills on Night 1 aren't unheard of, but a good portion of our games have multiple mafia teams. Sometimes there is maybe a town vig, maybe a serial killer, it all depends really, but those aren't as standard or necessarily common. I'd say the SK is more common than a town vig easily.

A 1-shot mafia vig is probably rare though; I did just host Turf Wars where Soneji had a 20% chance at an extra kill every Night, so that's the kind of mafia vig I'd say is more common rather than a 1-shot extra kill kind of thing.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Why would it be weird? I hadn't really thought it through, and I think that my train of thought as the day progressed can be seen in my posts. My instinct was Mafia Vig because I didn't think a Town Vig would kill Silver or Epi, I checked the matrix and saw more possibilities for Mafia Vig which reinforced my instinct, so that's what I posted. Didn't even think about a Town Vig wanting to kill Epi until MM brought up the reasoning.

It seems uncharacteristic of you. You seem to be able to see the other face of the coin in all events. More importantly, you seem to make a point to inform others of this other face. What I mean is you're the kind of guy who seems to see how he can be wrong even when 95% sure about something. More importantly, you seem to be the kind of guy who clearly points out this 5% chance of being wrong (if you remember my post about your style of play and plausible deniability).

So, it feels strange to me that you couldn't see the possibility of Town Vig being responsible for one of the kills. Especially since you didn't even have a town read on Epi (null on Epi and slight scum-read on Long Con).[/quote]

That seems pretty insightful; I won't really argue with it being uncharacteristic. I suppose maybe that post was, since I hadn't thought the vig presence through to the degree I should have, but I was in a rush this morning because I knew I wouldn't be around for long, so eh. I see your point, at least.

That's correct, but after EoD my read on Epi changed once I actually read his content. At the time of my departure from the thread, Epi had mostly been integrating himself into the thread and asking a few questions. Once I caught up on EoD after the thread was locked, I felt better about Epi because I saw his town spark, very much in contrast to Turf Wars where he was most recently mafia and was a slow starter to drumming up cases. Here he cased Frog pretty immediately and it looked like a town Epi to me, and that's further why I just assumed a mafia vig killed him. You'll notice I posted my rainbow list without having caught up any further on posts; that's my fault since I was occupied with other things during that time.

It doesn't help that I didn't vocalize some of these things, which is, as you say, probably uncharacteristic. I'm not accustomed to the thread being locked at Nights either, despite having played with that restriction a few times.

Does that adequately address your concerns?

Bah, I butchered that second quote, sorry folks. Some of that is Marco up until the [/quote]; the rest thereafter is me.

Marco wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Marco, what thoughts do you have on Soneji right now? I'm working on the ISO and am curious what you think given you're more familiar with him than anyone.

I'm waiting for him to catch up before looking into him further, but as of yesterday's activity, I probably lean town on him for now.

Good to know, thanks.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

sig wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

sig wrote:RIP Epi/Silver

Hope to see you play again here Frog.

I'll do some NKA later after school. However, off the top of my head I think these results point to a mafia team with members inexperienced with this set up. We have eight potential set ups right now, out of 12. We can remove C, B, 2, and 6.

Can't be a vig kill, vig is on even night only I think.

How do you figure?

Using your extra night kill so early results in at least three world set ups being gone, that can hurt the mafia more since it narrow things down and helps the civs to figure out what world we are in. So it will hurt the mafia will claiming civ roles later in the game and make civ claims seem more real.

VOTE SIG

As I've already pointed out, there could be a civ vig and no mafia vig. This conclusion was reached on the belief that mafia made both kills last night.

I was asked and addressing the mafia portion. The chances of it being the vig kill is very very slim. 1 in 12 and then the vig killing Silver or Epi. This is a really weak reason to vote for me.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Marco wrote:Do the games here generally not have Town Vigilante? Do you generally have multiple kills on Night 1? And if so, is it usually mafia doing so?

If we have multiple nightkills on a given night, it's usually because there is a serial killer/independent, not because of a town vig. There have been rare occurrences of a town vig here, but they are quite uncommon.

Noted.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Marco wrote:It seems uncharacteristic of you. You seem to be able to see the other face of the coin in all events. More importantly, you seem to make a point to inform others of this other face. What I mean is you're the kind of guy who seems to see how he can be wrong even when 95% sure about something. More importantly, you seem to be the kind of guy who clearly points out this 5% chance of being wrong (if you remember my post about your style of play and plausible deniability).

So, it feels strange to me that you couldn't see the possibility of Town Vig being responsible for one of the kills. Especially since you didn't even have a town read on Epi (null on Epi and slight scum-read on Long Con).

Let's not forget the presence of town roles in this game.

Shit, I hadn't considered this.

Here is my updated rainbow list. Not a lot has changed, but with three dead players and a few movements.

Marco
Dyslexicon
Soneji
Zexy
DrWilgy
Golden
Inawordyes
MovingPictures07
a2thezebra
Psittaciform
sig
ika
Sloonei

Players I have only gut-read and/or have no idea and need to look into more: Dyslexicon, Zexy, Inawordyes, Psittaciform. Pretty much every player I haven't played with before.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Here is my updated rainbow list. Not a lot has changed, but with three dead players and a few movements.

Marco
Dyslexicon
Soneji
Zexy
DrWilgy
Golden
Inawordyes
MovingPictures07
a2thezebra
Psittaciform
sig
ika
Sloonei

Players I have only gut-read and/or have no idea and need to look into more: Dyslexicon, Zexy, Inawordyes, Psittaciform. Pretty much every player I haven't played with before.

Can you explain your Wilgy, Golden, and zebra reads in more detail?

I hate ISOing without a flip.

EBWOP: without a mafia flip*, that is. I need more coffee.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Can you explain your Wilgy, Golden, and zebra reads in more detail?

Sure.

DrWilgy: My read on him is a result of your ISO and my brief interactions with him. I have no idea about that guy, and I don't believe reading him back will help that. Only future interactions may.

zebra: She vehemently defended you yesterday, which I still find odd. I considered briefly that you were Masons together, but you had your skepticism about her, so I put that thought aside. I considered that this was just plain-sight mafia play, and a possibility I still think exists. I don't find her defense of you encouraging.

Golden: I didn't like his attitude wert me yesterday. He, like you, was very hesitant to vote for Sloonei, despite acknowledging that Sloonei was a decent candidate for Day 1. Also, responses like this just give me the shivers. An "Oh, of course I meant to do that " instead of an "Aye, good call there, I was wrong".

As we know, Soneji didn't appear for most of the Day 1 period. However, he did show his face towards the end, and has since made 9 posts.

I'm not going to quotespoiler his first post, since it's a doozy, so I'll link it instead:
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 66#p265166

First we have some interrogation/commentary on Psi that shows a sincere hunt. Town lean here.
Then we have some meta history provided for Marco. Null.
Third we have a response to Sloonei in which Soneji questions Sloonei's waffly opinion on Marco.
He also picks out a strong point against IAWY's preemptive defense, comments on hypocrisy by ika with respect to SW, etc.

I suppose a mafia Soneji could have made these comments, but I'm really seeing a town interested in interrogating and uncovering mafia here. I am leaning town after Soneji after this post. What do you all think?
This is a rather aggressive post directed at sig. I'd say the alignment that could be taken from this post is inevitably reliant on sig's alignment. So until we know either Soneji or sig's alignment, I got nothing. If this is distancing, consider me impressed. Null.
Here we have a good observation re: Frog that unfortunately ended up being incorrect. Was this a townie looking for scum and ended up being incorrect, or a mafia using Frog as a mislynch? I'm not sure. The rest is off-topic. So... null.
More aggression toward Frog, but I don't feel it is particularly alignment indicative. Null.
Questioning of sig. I'd say town on this because of the orange. I see this sentiment espoused more often / more likely by town than I do mafia, who I think are less likely to vote off wagons and bring attention to themselves with this post.
Soneji explains that if he wanted to, he could lynch the player he wants with the time remaining. Gives a desire to possibly ISO MM, but that he'd rather vote for IAWY than MM. Eh... I think we need more information on alignments of MM and IAWY before interpreting this. Null.
Again, I don't really see either of these quotes as distancing. I considerably doubt both sig and Soneji are mafia. Null for now.
Correcting me noting that the standard town vig could have made the kills. Null.

And... that's Soneji so far! I'd give him a slight town read, almost moderate town, but I need to see more from him first and get some more information re: alignments to figure this out.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Can you explain your Wilgy, Golden, and zebra reads in more detail?

Sure.

DrWilgy: My read on him is a result of your ISO and my brief interactions with him. I have no idea about that guy, and I don't believe reading him back will help that. Only future interactions may.

zebra: She vehemently defended you yesterday, which I still find odd. I considered briefly that you were Masons together, but you had your skepticism about her, so I put that thought aside. I considered that this was just plain-sight mafia play, and a possibility I still think exists. I don't find her defense of you encouraging.

Golden: I didn't like his attitude wert me yesterday. He, like you, was very hesitant to vote for Sloonei, despite acknowledging that Sloonei was a decent candidate for Day 1. Also, responses like this just give me the shivers. An "Oh, of course I meant to do that " instead of an "Aye, good call there, I was wrong".

Okay, cool, this all makes sense. Thanks!

I think I'll update my rainbow and throw it down, but seeing as though it's 11:30AM and I've clearly been unproductive, I need to head out after that... for a while. And just force myself away, apparently.

So first MM tries to get me lynched, then he was trying to say Ika is bad for the Silver kill after saying Ika is civ? It seems like a set up imo.

sig wrote:I was asked and addressing the mafia portion. The chances of it being the vig kill is very very slim. 1 in 12 and then the vig killing Silver or Epi. This is a really weak reason to vote for me.

Actually it's a 2 in 12.

This is a pressure vote, and I don't plan on trying to get you lynched today for that single post.

sig wrote:So first MM tries to get me lynched, then he was trying to say Ika is bad for the Silver kill after saying Ika is civ? It seems like a set up imo.

Do you think that my thought process is flawed or are you tunneling me because you wanted to lynch me yesterday?

If there is something wrong with either of the things you mentioned above, can you please explain why?

Day 2: Rainbow List
(#1 d2, #3 overall)

Strong Town:
N/A

Moderate Town:
a2thezebra
Marco

Slight Town:
Soneji
Dyslexicon
Metalmarsh89
Golden

Null:
Zexy
sig
Sloonei
DrWilgy

Slight Mafia:
Psittacitform

Moderate Mafia:
ika
inawordyes

Strong Mafia:
N/A

This is before a second look at EoD though, as well as before really analyzing d1 votes and such. If I were to rank Silverwolf and Epignosis after having read EoD, before their deaths, I would have had them both as slight town.

Zexy, sig, and Sloonei were previously not null reads, but I don't know what to make of them. I think they'll be my next focus.

I'm also trying to be more harsh with my placements, so in general, players have potentially fallen down a spot or so if they're on the town side, and potentially up if they're on the mafia side. Increased paranoia isn't helping.

I really need to take a time out from The Syndicate and work firmly on studying for quite some time, so let's say I won't be back until the evening (Central time), 7:00PM EST at the earliest. I can't come back before then. So... see you all later!