Re: Downton Abbey Mafia (Day 6)
Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 5:52 pm
What do you think of Elsie>?
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
Well, that's certainly an opinion I don't share. The fact that you are good and experienced makes me distrust you.Epignosis wrote:And Edith implied that I'm not very good or experienced, so it would appear we both have a grievance with her ladyship.Dom wrote:Lady Edith is gravely mistaken about me, and I hope to show it to you.Epignosis wrote:I have already gone through Scotty's posts. I would consider voting there based on my analysis, although the Wilgy business gives me pause.
Thankfully no one silenced me, so I am able to examine everybody else I am considering voting. Once again, I'll take Lady Edith's advice and begin there.
Well, he was my very first suspect in Downton.Dom wrote:What do you think of Elsie>?
Resorting solely to statistics is a terrible way to frame the next lynches. You're disregarding all content and intuition and leaving it to your spreadsheet, which is only part of the equation.Epignosis wrote:Silenced persons:
ika
ScottyThe first group cannot be Mrs. Patmore. The second group cannot be Mrs. Hughes.People okay with lynching me as of right now even though I was not on the poll Day 5 (and/or were taken off the poll themselves):
ika
Scotty
thellama73
Matt
Epignosis
Black Rock
ika and Scotty fall into both categories, meaning it is more probable that they are bad than everybody else. With thirteen living and three bad, at first glance, everyone has a 23% chance of being bad. However, ika and Scotty have a 27% chance of being bad.
Assuming a successful kill on someone other than Scotty or ika, that puts the percentages at 25% and 30%, respectively.
If you are a civilian, that puts the percentages at 27% and 33%, respectively.
If you believe sig is good, as I do, that puts the percentages at 30% and 38%, respectively.
Scotty wrote:vote Epi
Scotty wrote:i still want to vote ika before you, especially since you think he is civ.
Well let's lynch me then, and see where that gets you.Scotty wrote:RIP sig
Resorting solely to statistics is a terrible way to frame the next lynches. You're disregarding all content and intuition and leaving it to your spreadsheet, which is only part of the equation.Epignosis wrote:Silenced persons:
ika
ScottyThe first group cannot be Mrs. Patmore. The second group cannot be Mrs. Hughes.People okay with lynching me as of right now even though I was not on the poll Day 5 (and/or were taken off the poll themselves):
ika
Scotty
thellama73
Matt
Epignosis
Black Rock
ika and Scotty fall into both categories, meaning it is more probable that they are bad than everybody else. With thirteen living and three bad, at first glance, everyone has a 23% chance of being bad. However, ika and Scotty have a 27% chance of being bad.
Assuming a successful kill on someone other than Scotty or ika, that puts the percentages at 25% and 30%, respectively.
If you are a civilian, that puts the percentages at 27% and 33%, respectively.
If you believe sig is good, as I do, that puts the percentages at 30% and 38%, respectively.
In roulette, by placing a singular bet on red, there's a 47% chance you will hit red. Every time.
But this isn't roulette. It's poker. You account for your odds, sure, but in the end based purely on the hubris of thinking a person has a specific set of cards will lose you hands more often than not.
I'm about to do a show so I don't have the time to properly respond to your exhaustive smear campaign against me, but it makes sense to me. This is probably your longest "case" against anyone so far this game, and it comes on the heels of the person that is trying to show the magician for what he really is: a framer.
Before I forget: ika could very well be good. I saw somewhere in there that you said ika and I could be on the same team. Ok.
Let's lynch you then. I was fully ready to lynch him yesterday, but the more I think about it, any kind of case I will make against you is going to be squashed. Why? You're probably a better arguer than I. Can't be helped. You setting up another case against me is the last straw, however. I know I am good, and so far your cases have been fruitless. You have a sort of arrogance, if I may be so bold, in that you are headed in a correct direction. This could be a civ trait, but I view it more and more as a man with a mission to steer the thread. And I think that is dangerous the longer we go on.
Also I think the case you just made about Sorsha makes her look bad, not good, like you concluded.
Just becasue you think X does not mean we should think XEpignosis wrote:And I'm steering the thread because nobody else will. I view steering the thread as a civilian trait, not a bad one. So get out of here with that.
why does that matter?Epignosis wrote:Scotty, do you think your own posts make you look good or bad?
Because I'm not someone keen on losing.ika wrote:Just becasue you think X does not mean we should think XEpignosis wrote:And I'm steering the thread because nobody else will. I view steering the thread as a civilian trait, not a bad one. So get out of here with that.
when someone leads mutiple leads that are wgon (aka you epi) people have rights to think it could eb scum
i mena you said yourself "let lynch you (epi)" so why dont you self vote?
Why indeed?ika wrote:why does that matter?Epignosis wrote:Scotty, do you think your own posts make you look good or bad?
Why do you believe that? I thought you said you were paying attention.Epignosis wrote:Of twelve voters, I believe I can expect Matt's, so I will have four total. There's still eight votes beyond those, so I am not going to sweat this.
What do you think of those who have been taken off the poll?Matt wrote:Who's off the poll today? Anyone?
Also, next phase, someone should take me off the poll cuz I'm totes good k thanks.
Yeah, host question asked and answered.Epignosis wrote:I'm going to also have to reevaluate thellama73.
His vote on me today isn't what I was expecting, so he's going to get the treatment too.
doesnt change the odds of someone being scum.Epignosis wrote:If you're keen on the math angle,
Epignosis
3
thellama73 (2), ika (3), Scotty (5)
60%
None of these clowns are Lady Edith.
Can you please try to make sense?ika wrote:doesnt change the odds of someone being scum.Epignosis wrote:If you're keen on the math angle,
Epignosis
3
thellama73 (2), ika (3), Scotty (5)
60%
None of these clowns are Lady Edith.
and i mean if you want to be tecnical, lady edith could be bm to vote you anyways
Thanks for reminding me of this- this is actually why I initially doubled back on my suspicion of you after day 1. I promise I'm not going to tunnel on you this entire phase, Epi. Edith does have a point to look at the ones that haven't been talking much.Epignosis wrote:For reference: Epi, ika, Black Rock, Epi, nobody.
What? Who is Logan? What question? And if you can't repeat the question in the thread, then why even bring it up?Epignosis wrote:Yeah, host question asked and answered.Epignosis wrote:I'm going to also have to reevaluate thellama73.
His vote on me today isn't what I was expecting, so he's going to get the treatment too.
Logan is getting the fullness of my wrathful investigation.
No, we can't. thellama73 has no opinion about this since.thellama73 wrote:I guess we can rule out Ika as being mafia, then, can't we?
Did Logan expect MCS to reveal ika killing Silverwolf? I don't think so.thellama73 wrote:This list doesn't make sense to me. The Silver kill doesn't frame Ika, it practically exonerates him.sig wrote:I see three scenarios here.
1. Ika is mafia and killed Silver before she could get a strong read on him.
2. Someone killed Silver to frame Ika, this points to an experienced mafia member.
3. Silver mainly talked about DF, Epi, and LC around the time of her death and EOD. One of them is mafia and killed her.
Uh-huh.thellama73 wrote:Yes, I've always said I don't think Ika capable of killing Silver N1. So I don't see how the kill frames him, as Sig suggests.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Isn't that the idea that you supported in the first place?thellama73 wrote:This list doesn't make sense to me. The Silver kill doesn't frame Ika, it practically exonerates him.sig wrote:I see three scenarios here.
1. Ika is mafia and killed Silver before she could get a strong read on him.
2. Someone killed Silver to frame Ika, this points to an experienced mafia member.
3. Silver mainly talked about DF, Epi, and LC around the time of her death and EOD. One of them is mafia and killed her.
Defends Matt and votes DF.thellama73 wrote:I had hoped that the votes on Matt were merely attempts to get his attention, and not serious attempts to kill him, but as the day nears an end, I'm not so sure.
Come on guys, do you really think a baddie Matt with teammates would just ignore the thread and let himself be lynched? I feel certain he will flip civ is this bandwagon doesn't change direction.
As for me, I'm joining the DFaraday group, since I find him more suspicious than Matt by a long shot.
Scotty and llama are voting me.thellama73 wrote:Oh yeah, I can explain this now. I noticed Nero had been quiet for a while and I wanted to provoke him into coming out. I wanted to see how he would react to an unexplained vote. Sometimes you can get good reads on people by seeing how they react to an unexpected attack. His response didn't really ping me though, so I let it go.Scotty wrote: Llama: I don't like llama coming out brazenly and latching onto a Nero lynch, not expanding on it, and then changing to Bubbles at the end. Could he really have something on Nero and want to stave it off until a time he can really peg him, and ultimately just jumped on a suspicion of someone else? Llama is a null leaaaaaaning civ read for me.
Why would they?thellama73 wrote:Why would anyone remove you from the lynch poll? No one is even thinking about lynching you, are they?ika wrote:so im removed from lycnh todday and doc pulled off a save.
nice
scotty i seocnd that why lorab why not dom or daisy or something like that i need to read your lsit again
Daisy's dead.thellama73 wrote:I always have a low-level wanting to lynch MM, but I would much rather lynch Daisy. Long Con should join me in this, since he has ben talking the most sense of anyone lately.Epignosis wrote:If people wanted to lynch MM at this stage, they're not going to get any mileage out of his posts- there's a relatively high number of posts, but they've all been, as it were, poking from the perimeter.Black Rock wrote:Where do you stand with MM Epig? I didn't really understand what your conclusion was.
That's what I'm saying.
Nah.thellama73 wrote:A couple of reasons.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Why do you want to lynch Spacedaisy? I find her presence in this game reassuring.
1) she's led us away from a DFaraday lynch, towards two civilian lynches. This in itself is not very compelling. I've done the same thing myself in many a game. But there's also...
2) Her "lynch DFaraday and then come after me if he's bad" gambit, feels like a setup. I think she knows he will flip good, which is why she made the offer.
3) Her repeated use of some variation of the phrase "suspect me all you want" feels false to me, especially given that she has reacted more strongly to my suspicion of her than I would have expected. It feels like she is trying to act like she doesn't care about being suspected, but she actually cares a lot, and that seems like a baddie move to me.
What does this mean ika? Your question to Illy.ika wrote:its green silver is messgin around.Illyria wrote:
Okay, I am going to need to have SVS back that up because I do love me some off topic chat (Sorry Siliver, I dont know you, and in game I dont trust anyone).
SVS? Off topic green is still the same??
so it seems that you are a known player here too. care to fill us in on that?
I don't think about the consequences of posting things sometimes, so that's for town to decide. I'm good, so I can only speak of how I perceive myself.Epignosis wrote:Scotty, do you think your own posts make you look good or bad?
Well, the insanifier is alive and well.Long Con wrote:JBIFAUHLZMWHDYDRWTT
in signups people seemed to welcome her back i was asking her about thatMatt wrote:What does this mean ika? Your question to Illy.ika wrote:its green silver is messgin around.Illyria wrote:
Okay, I am going to need to have SVS back that up because I do love me some off topic chat (Sorry Siliver, I dont know you, and in game I dont trust anyone).
SVS? Off topic green is still the same??
so it seems that you are a known player here too. care to fill us in on that?
Why didn't you ask her about it in signups when you originally saw peeps welcoming her back?ika wrote:in signups people seemed to welcome her back i was asking her about thatMatt wrote:What does this mean ika? Your question to Illy.ika wrote:its green silver is messgin around.Illyria wrote:
Okay, I am going to need to have SVS back that up because I do love me some off topic chat (Sorry Siliver, I dont know you, and in game I dont trust anyone).
SVS? Off topic green is still the same??
so it seems that you are a known player here too. care to fill us in on that?
even if the game has started like a week later, it wouldnt of made a difference. something like that i always ask in game.Matt wrote:I'm going to withdraw my question. It looks like the game started very shortly after everyone was welcoming Illy back.
Hrm.
How do you know if you were reading him right before he flipped? Aaaand also neither this sentence or the post I lifted it from even tells us how you were reading him. Weird.Illyria wrote:I have never read BWT right, this game proves no exception.
Still, I'm gettin' the heebies from Illy really bad.Illyria wrote:No idea on his alignment before the lynch. I was stating I have never read him right, I was all over the place on his alignment as I read through the thread. So yeah, this game is right on track for me. Huzzah.thellama73 wrote:This was posted before the lynch result. How do you know you were not reading him right, when you didn't know his alignment?Illyria wrote: I have never read BWT right, this game proves no exception.
Or did you know his alignment after all?
Also, what name did you call me?
Black Rock and Illyria are civilians. Move on.Matt wrote:Damn, I should really ISO her completely before I make comments. Apparently Llama asks the same question I do...
Still, I'm gettin' the heebies from Illy really bad.Illyria wrote:No idea on his alignment before the lynch. I was stating I have never read him right, I was all over the place on his alignment as I read through the thread. So yeah, this game is right on track for me. Huzzah.thellama73 wrote:This was posted before the lynch result. How do you know you were not reading him right, when you didn't know his alignment?Illyria wrote: I have never read BWT right, this game proves no exception.
Or did you know his alignment after all?
Also, what name did you call me?
I'm gonna continue to look through her posts, any other questions I have I'll put all in one post.
What does everyone think of Black Rock?
Hahahaha. So again, Dom also asked the same question Llama did and I eventually would a few weeks later.Illyria wrote:Because I could not decide where he fell, and I know BWT (or did) he was the only player that I knew upon whom I was waffling. I have the new to me people in a ??? category right now until I get a better feel for them as we go.Dom wrote:How did you know if you read him right though?Illyria wrote:No idea on his alignment before the lynch. I was stating I have never read him right, I was all over the place on his alignment as I read through the thread. So yeah, this game is right on track for me. Huzzah.thellama73 wrote:This was posted before the lynch result. How do you know you were not reading him right, when you didn't know his alignment?Illyria wrote: I have never read BWT right, this game proves no exception.
Or did you know his alignment after all?
Also, what name did you call me?
Seems pretty waffly on all of them...?Illyria wrote:I have never read BWT right, this game proves no exception.
D Faraday I am not sure.
Dom, you have been making my eyebrow crick for the last day-- to be fair I can not tell if there are still the vestiges of the puppy in there or if it is something else.
LC... I.. am not sure... but I worry. I have yet to dileneate if that is from Mafias Past or this one.
Maybe she just considers you a civilian.Epignosis wrote:And Edith implied that I'm not very good or experienced, so it would appear we both have a grievance with her ladyship.Dom wrote:Lady Edith is gravely mistaken about me, and I hope to show it to you.Epignosis wrote:I have already gone through Scotty's posts. I would consider voting there based on my analysis, although the Wilgy business gives me pause.
Thankfully no one silenced me, so I am able to examine everybody else I am considering voting. Once again, I'll take Lady Edith's advice and begin there.
Black Rock is a civilian.Matt wrote:Damn, I should really ISO her completely before I make comments. Apparently Llama asks the same question I do...
Still, I'm gettin' the heebies from Illy really bad.Illyria wrote:No idea on his alignment before the lynch. I was stating I have never read him right, I was all over the place on his alignment as I read through the thread. So yeah, this game is right on track for me. Huzzah.thellama73 wrote:This was posted before the lynch result. How do you know you were not reading him right, when you didn't know his alignment?Illyria wrote: I have never read BWT right, this game proves no exception.
Or did you know his alignment after all?
Also, what name did you call me?
I'm gonna continue to look through her posts, any other questions I have I'll put all in one post.
What does everyone think of Black Rock?
I'm the only one leading, man.Matt wrote:Epig, I think you da bomb, and you're a way better player then I, however you have been leading lynches against civs left and right so why should anyone trust you on that?
To DomIllyria wrote:Also, HAHAHAHAHA I totally forgot that you did that!!! How are you??
To Long ConIllyria wrote:DOOOOMMMMMMMM!! OMG, how are you cutie?
Now, in these instances, Illy is totes psyched to see these peeps and cannot contain her excitement. Now, let us see her reaction to Black Rock...Illyria wrote:THAT WAS MY BEST DEATH OF ALL TIME. I am sad I missed them as well, I have always loved playing in your games. It is so good to see your name pop up. Geez y'all are making my black and scarred heart feel all funny.
Okay. Okay we got a hug smiley. That's okay.Illyria wrote:Black Rock wrote:I'm late to the party again. I will go read. I'm a Debbie Downer today so I probably won't be on the forum much tonight.
Okay. Okay then.Illyria wrote:Awww shug. I had to bail for a few to get some learnin done.Black Rock wrote:Seeing Illy play has brought my mood up. I like the return of old Mafia friends. I thought I'd never see her again.
Huh. Good to know.Illyria wrote:Huh. Okay good to know, thanks BR.Black Rock wrote:I can help with my opinion. For the most part yes. He's much more sneakier. Sometimes I think he falls back into habits but no one believes me when he does.
i think sevral others were trying but you keep basicly going "No"Epignosis wrote:I'm the only one leading, man.Matt wrote:Epig, I think you da bomb, and you're a way better player then I, however you have been leading lynches against civs left and right so why should anyone trust you on that?
Yeah, I was kidding about them being enemies obvi.Dom wrote:Matt, I don't think I'd buy what you're seeling but Black Rock and Illy are not enemies, no.