Re: Dogs vs. Cats [Day 5]
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:19 pm
I disagree with your nk analysis. I don't get how you're interpreting it. And you can always apply the wifom/that's-what-he-wants-you-to-think consideration. I mean, consider yesterday. He was trying to emphasize that he suspected LC, but there was never going to be a wagon there so he gave up. Do you think it's possible that he deliberately did that to plant the seed for us to think he wanted to lynch LC but then NKed him to throw us off since we'd think he'd want LC around as a mislynch target. Or that he saw there wasn't enough interest in lynching LC (tbf if LC was still around today he'd be in my poe, but whatever) so he knew he'd need to pivot to another mislynch target, so went ahead and killed LC figuring we wouldn't really know what to make of that. Idk, this is the problem with nk analysis. Too much wifom/potential for it to mean anything or nothing.Fayt wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:37 pm I don't know. I believe Drago on top of the NK tbh. It was either to implicate Drago or it was just a random kill. I don't think he's pulling the wool over my eyes and his eod behavior sounded genuine but eh.
He's wrong about me being the last cat though so if you want to build a case on me, do so so I can dispute it and put it to rest. We need to look at everyone if we are wrong.
You're thinking too much into it.nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:49 pmI disagree with your nk analysis. I don't get how you're interpreting it. And you can always apply the wifom/that's-what-he-wants-you-to-think consideration. I mean, consider yesterday. He was trying to emphasize that he suspected LC, but there was never going to be a wagon there so he gave up. Do you think it's possible that he deliberately did that to plant the seed for us to think he wanted to lynch LC but then NKed him to throw us off since we'd think he'd want LC around as a mislynch target. Or that he saw there wasn't enough interest in lynching LC (tbf if LC was still around today he'd be in my poe, but whatever) so he knew he'd need to pivot to another mislynch target, so went ahead and killed LC figuring we wouldn't really know what to make of that. Idk, this is the problem with nk analysis. Too much wifom/potential for it to mean anything or nothing.Fayt wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:37 pm I don't know. I believe Drago on top of the NK tbh. It was either to implicate Drago or it was just a random kill. I don't think he's pulling the wool over my eyes and his eod behavior sounded genuine but eh.
He's wrong about me being the last cat though so if you want to build a case on me, do so so I can dispute it and put it to rest. We need to look at everyone if we are wrong.
I also had that thought but I feel like similar to the TSP kill, it's what the killer is planning. Like they want us to go after Drago so I'm not buying it.nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:49 pmI disagree with your nk analysis. I don't get how you're interpreting it. And you can always apply the wifom/that's-what-he-wants-you-to-think consideration. I mean, consider yesterday. He was trying to emphasize that he suspected LC, but there was never going to be a wagon there so he gave up. Do you think it's possible that he deliberately did that to plant the seed for us to think he wanted to lynch LC but then NKed him to throw us off since we'd think he'd want LC around as a mislynch target. Or that he saw there wasn't enough interest in lynching LC (tbf if LC was still around today he'd be in my poe, but whatever) so he knew he'd need to pivot to another mislynch target, so went ahead and killed LC figuring we wouldn't really know what to make of that. Idk, this is the problem with nk analysis. Too much wifom/potential for it to mean anything or nothing.Fayt wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:37 pm I don't know. I believe Drago on top of the NK tbh. It was either to implicate Drago or it was just a random kill. I don't think he's pulling the wool over my eyes and his eod behavior sounded genuine but eh.
He's wrong about me being the last cat though so if you want to build a case on me, do so so I can dispute it and put it to rest. We need to look at everyone if we are wrong.
Whoa I am mod cleared. Who wants to fuck with me?
See how at pains he is to answer this question meticulously. Townie Nova would probably have just been short here.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:34 pmI'm not sure right now. Most of my thoughts there were linked to my Dom suspicion and Drago being the one Dom was casing, as well as my experience with him. There are a lot of flashes of his civ self in how he's behaving and being stubborn. I'm supposed to reread and reassess some stuff in a bit so I'll see how I feel especially with the whole "that's what he wants you to think" perspective.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:45 pm Personally I think it's Nova. Motherfucker has been all calm and blendy and weird.
You know who is town?
This is a pretty good read. Nova is town.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:32 amOpening with a strong town read, alright. The "Don't try to lynch him" is laughable. False bravado followed by attempts to divert by cracking jokes and using the theme/host, then a dud when asked for the why.
Drago is bad.
Not this late and after being wrong about Dom, but he's still good I thinkMacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:46 pmSee how at pains he is to answer this question meticulously. Townie Nova would probably have just been short here.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:34 pmI'm not sure right now. Most of my thoughts there were linked to my Dom suspicion and Drago being the one Dom was casing, as well as my experience with him. There are a lot of flashes of his civ self in how he's behaving and being stubborn. I'm supposed to reread and reassess some stuff in a bit so I'll see how I feel especially with the whole "that's what he wants you to think" perspective.
Why are you in this guru like mode? And don't try to tell me that you aren't because you are. Explain why.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:52 pmNot this late and after being wrong about Dom, but he's still good I thinkMacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:46 pmSee how at pains he is to answer this question meticulously. Townie Nova would probably have just been short here.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:34 pmI'm not sure right now. Most of my thoughts there were linked to my Dom suspicion and Drago being the one Dom was casing, as well as my experience with him. There are a lot of flashes of his civ self in how he's behaving and being stubborn. I'm supposed to reread and reassess some stuff in a bit so I'll see how I feel especially with the whole "that's what he wants you to think" perspective.
I have no fucking clue lol. Weird game I guessMacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:53 pmWhy are you in this guru like mode? And don't try to tell me that you aren't because you are. Explain why.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:52 pmNot this late and after being wrong about Dom, but he's still good I thinkMacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:46 pmSee how at pains he is to answer this question meticulously. Townie Nova would probably have just been short here.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:34 pmI'm not sure right now. Most of my thoughts there were linked to my Dom suspicion and Drago being the one Dom was casing, as well as my experience with him. There are a lot of flashes of his civ self in how he's behaving and being stubborn. I'm supposed to reread and reassess some stuff in a bit so I'll see how I feel especially with the whole "that's what he wants you to think" perspective.
YOU ARE EUROPE
I'm sniffing what you're pooping down.MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:46 pmSee how at pains he is to answer this question meticulously. Townie Nova would probably have just been short here.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:34 pmI'm not sure right now. Most of my thoughts there were linked to my Dom suspicion and Drago being the one Dom was casing, as well as my experience with him. There are a lot of flashes of his civ self in how he's behaving and being stubborn. I'm supposed to reread and reassess some stuff in a bit so I'll see how I feel especially with the whole "that's what he wants you to think" perspective.
So my literal only concern towards you is that you have been pretty much 100% buddying me the entire game. What gives?nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:12 pmI'm sniffing what you're pooping down.MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:46 pmSee how at pains he is to answer this question meticulously. Townie Nova would probably have just been short here.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:34 pmI'm not sure right now. Most of my thoughts there were linked to my Dom suspicion and Drago being the one Dom was casing, as well as my experience with him. There are a lot of flashes of his civ self in how he's behaving and being stubborn. I'm supposed to reread and reassess some stuff in a bit so I'll see how I feel especially with the whole "that's what he wants you to think" perspective.![]()
Also buddying Nova out the gate. The false dichotomy here with Speed/Drago is pingy as fuck too. Especially since we now know Speedchuck was a cat.
Since Rej flipped cat this now reads like you using my wrong case to tie a townie to him.nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:13 pmYeah, I guess I do. I've waffled a bit and don't feel amazingly strongly about it, but I like the connection that Mac drew between him and Fayt.Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:05 pmOh right. Gonna have to rethink this then. @Nutella do you suspect Rej?
Speed is fine.
Speed is voted for no reason.
Mistake released and poop buried.
Well for me his behavior in the Jay lynch just felt so calculated in a weird way and especially note that he was really adamant about the vig plan and then there was no vig kill and the cat has a block. Like of course that could have been fayt too but drago just seemed so keen on it and the way he changed his mind from lynch fayt to lynch jay just really seems to me like he was trying to keep fayt around as a buffer.MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:08 pm Okay so I really like that I can see genuine thought behind Fayt's posts. I know Jay was pretty adamant it was her but he's also a fart face so who cares. Nutella seems kinda gamesolvey but I can never clear her because her range is so massive. Likewise Nova. If we lynch wrong today well, it's probably because it's one of them.
If someone can provide a bit of an objective cliffnotes version of why Dragomir is bad that'd be good because he tone reads town to me. If there is something empirical that says otherwise then I'd acquiesce this weak ass read though.
I'll see if an ISO of Michelle leaves me feeling anything about her.
Do you still feel this way towards Drago and Michelle because since they're both alive it now reads like TMI.nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:36 pm Drago is always town here. Michelle is ALWAYS town here. Mac, Epi, or Nova could theoretically be pulling the wool over my eyes but I've mindmelded with them too many times to not want to think about that unless I have no other choice. It's within LC, Fayt, Jay, and Dom. Fayt is the only overlap I have with Jay's list so that's the most logical option I suppose, but my gut is weakest there and if Jay is scum then, well.
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:14 pmOh baby this is that good shit. My poor boofer mouth is gonna need a glass of milk after that, hooo-wee.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:27 pm"I do lean scum on him". She is emphasising "I do" as opposed to just "I lean". She is responding someone who does not. There is only one person who has actively said that they do not and that is Rej. This is consequentially distancing of Rej.Dragomir wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:21 pmFake. Super fake. Fayt is bad.Fayt wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:34 pmSup Starlightnovaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:36 pm I thought Fayt was part of the recent MU wave but they're not lol
So for the dragomir thing, I might be late on this because I haven't had a chance to reply until now. There are things I'm unsure of and this is off of first impressions but I do lean scum on him. As reasons stated above but also because of Dragomir not wanting to do first impressions but then jump onto another target (i.e. LC) so he must think of something about LC that strikes him as odd or did he just drop the LC name to get people off of his back.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:30 pm We already have something of substance to talk about, people. If you haven't already piped in, I want to know what y'all think of Dragomir or anything related to the conversation surrounding Dragomir.
Secondly, I don't think Dragomir and JJJ are bussing each other. If they are then I'm definitely fooled. If Dragomir turns out to be scum, I find Jay as town and vice versa. However, there is a chance they could both be town but I don't think both would be scum.
The second paragraph spews both Jay and Drago as town.
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:26 ammy thoughts as wellMacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:34 pm I don't think Epi's case on Jay holds much water at all. Nothing that was pointed out is outside of Jay's town play. It's still a mild town tick for Epi though. I still think Jay is town.
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:29 amalso agree here, I was happy with nova's contributions d1 but today so far he's done nothing, just made scattered comments all over the place and idk what his actual thoughts are.MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:36 pm Of all the people who were just participatory in that flurry Nova's contributions were the most skewiff. I don't understand what he was trying to do at all.
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:38 amI dig this, I'm also still sort of on the LC/rej both cats train. So what do you think is the likelihood of Jay being their teammate in this scenario vs a civilian?MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:50 pmSo you are suspicious of Jay because he is wrong?
Firstly, what if LC is also a cat?
But I'll unpack this for a second. In this scenario you propose Jay to be Rej's teammate and unwilling to bus him. Would it not stand to reason that if he was unwilling to bus him that he would be willing to defend him? Did he defend him? If you can show me evidence of Jay trying to manipulate others into rescinding their read on Rej I'll listen more.
Personally I think the chances are rather high that we had two cat wagons up on day 1.
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:43 amthis is a good point tbhMacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:57 pmJust looking at TH's posts and this one stands out. If I wasn't me I'd be pretty convinced that I killed him for this.Turnip Head wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:33 pmThis post smells like a litter box. Paints quite a big picture of events. "Actually pretty scummy"? Mac is purring like a devilMacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:24 pmI'll answer for him. Firstly, you have been actually pretty scummy. So for Rej to defend you is TMI. Rej has no reason to feel like you have been civvy enough to question the people casing him.Dragomir wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:18 pmWhy? What about it strikes as TMI?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:20 pm Agreed with concern about Rej take. Potential TMI on Dragomir.
Rej is taking the opportunity to gain your trust by dismissing the case as incredulous, which is invariably how you would feel as a civ. In the event of a civilian flip of you he is distanced from the case making of a bad lynch, which is where people first look for wolves (even though it's usually never that simple).
Now, onto Fayt, who we have common ground on.![]()
But given I am in fact a dog ... perhaps this kill was made in the hopes of somebody breadcrumbing that.
Turnip Head had a pretty strong town read on Dragomir. I am want to think that a wolf team that has Dragomir in it that just lost a member would not kill someone who had an incorrect scum read on me and was town reading Dragomir.
I also think that TH wasn't proving to be much of a threat. I don't see how a scum team that has players unfamiliar with him would choose him as a kill.
It just seems like a pure POE shot given how good TH looked in light of the Rej flip.
I kinda found it strange how Jay decided to leak that he had an interaction analysis with Rej/TH. Almost seems like Jay was trying to make us think he didn't know TH was gonna get the bullet. @JaggedJimmyJay why did you post the TH/Rej interaction analysis?
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:52 amLol yeah I'm with mac on this one. Don't see how you could use that to clear LC in the slightest.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:20 amWhat are you talking about, that is literally him using a third party to try to hard defend Rej? That's like the most teammate indicative shit ever lol.![]()
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:02 am100% agree as you may have surmised from another post I just made lolMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:54 am@nutella you have scummed with Jay, what do you think?MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:54 am Just btw I 100% believe Jay would absolutely kill TH if he thought it was the right move, "site health" be damned. I have wolfed with Jay and cannot in a million years imagine him saying "let's not kill TH because he's only just came back" if TH was empirically the best kill to be made. He'd be like "exterminate the prick and even better because I can say that I'd never do it and dumb shits would believe me muahahaha". Jay is absolutely cold and pragmatic as scum and him even trying that on as defence is scummy as shit.
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:33 pmFair.MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:05 pm Worthy of thought.
Rej lynched by a single vote on day 1.
Flipped wolf on his wagon.
Why did Speedchuck not just vote for LC?
The mindmelds bro. Basically since champs we are attached at the hip as civilians tbhMacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:13 pmSo my literal only concern towards you is that you have been pretty much 100% buddying me the entire game. What gives?nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:12 pmI'm sniffing what you're pooping down.MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:46 pmSee how at pains he is to answer this question meticulously. Townie Nova would probably have just been short here.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:34 pmI'm not sure right now. Most of my thoughts there were linked to my Dom suspicion and Drago being the one Dom was casing, as well as my experience with him. There are a lot of flashes of his civ self in how he's behaving and being stubborn. I'm supposed to reread and reassess some stuff in a bit so I'll see how I feel especially with the whole "that's what he wants you to think" perspective.![]()
I don't, lol. Those were strong tone reads at the time but I have been forced to reconsider and drago's behavior (see my above post) in recent phases has prompted a 180 on him and michelle is certainly on the table.MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:22 pmDo you still feel this way towards Drago and Michelle because since they're both alive it now reads like TMI.nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:36 pm Drago is always town here. Michelle is ALWAYS town here. Mac, Epi, or Nova could theoretically be pulling the wool over my eyes but I've mindmelded with them too many times to not want to think about that unless I have no other choice. It's within LC, Fayt, Jay, and Dom. Fayt is the only overlap I have with Jay's list so that's the most logical option I suppose, but my gut is weakest there and if Jay is scum then, well.