The Syndicate

if martin spent so much time and effort breaking up a v/v fight as scum i will actually be floored. like damn

if he’s scum he has no reason to do that unless teamed with alison or thun and i just... don’t really find that likely

Anyways I got to go off for awhile. I wont be as active as I have been for the past 48 hours or so.

I should be able to pop-in for (perhaps 2-3ish) hours in the next 13 or 14 hours.

This has not felt like Hally’s scum game that I saw in Champs, but our current interaction is bugging me. Maybe it’s because I’m snippy with all the constant suspicions against me all game, but “lol weird that you’d show up right after someone calls you scum” when I’ve been getting called scum by half the players all game long is like... when am I allowed to post if that’s the case?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:37 pm This has not felt like Hally’s scum game that I saw in Champs, but our current interaction is bugging me. Maybe it’s because I’m snippy with all the constant suspicions against me all game, but “lol weird that you’d show up right after someone calls you scum” when I’ve been getting called scum by half the players all game long is like... when am I allowed to post if that’s the case?

im sorry, i didn’t mean to irritate you. that post probably could have gone unmade

if you read my other posts this day i think i’ve been quite fair to you though. i’ve offered several counterpoints to a scum!sloonei world

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:39 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:37 pm This has not felt like Hally’s scum game that I saw in Champs, but our current interaction is bugging me. Maybe it’s because I’m snippy with all the constant suspicions against me all game, but “lol weird that you’d show up right after someone calls you scum” when I’ve been getting called scum by half the players all game long is like... when am I allowed to post if that’s the case?

im sorry, i didn’t mean to irritate you. that post probably could have gone unmade

if you read my other posts this day i think i’ve been quite fair to you though. i’ve offered several counterpoints to a scum!sloonei world

Sorry, I didn’t mean to say you’re treating me unfairly. At least, not outside that one post. It just seemed like a potentially opportunistic thing to take a swing at, but I’m not sure that is your scum M.O. anyway, and you’ve been a firm town read for most of the game.

Wait huh?

Spf why did u make that big post about nutella and lc interactions and concluding nutella is town? She was ur 3rd top townread yesterday and consensus townread for absolutely everyone, so im puzzled that u put so much effort to come up with the conclusion nutella is town? rather than analyzing someone else

Unless u were planning to do that for absolutely everyone?

tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:42 pm Wait huh?

Spf why did u make that big post about nutella and lc interactions and concluding nutella is town? She was ur 3rd top townread yesterday and consensus townread for absolutely everyone, so im puzzled that u put so much effort to come up with the conclusion nutella is town? rather than analyzing someone else

Unless u were planning to do that for absolutely everyone?

She’ll most likely be doing it for everyone. That was the case in champs.

I plan on doing something similar later.

Who is mafia, tooty?

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:22 pm I tried to make this as easy to understand as possible, but I honestly believe Thunal33 + Alison are TvT'ing.

I can't really put it into better words, but I hope the colors helped.

I agree and give you townpoints for this

how did sloonei interact with long con?

early softball interaction with lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=674860#p674860 and viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=674933#p674933

i wouldn't normally take much of an issue w/sloonei's early softball interaction with lc, but the fact that he uses it as an excuse to very lightly townread lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675478#p675478 does bother me a little bit. it feels both protective of lc and hedgy toward lc at the same time

i also think that sloonei immediately discrediting his own tr on lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675484#p675484 is an odd look - it feels like sloonei felt insecure/uncomfortable with his position on long con just being "town"

more softball interaction on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676192#p676192 - this is a broader gripe with sloonei's game in general, but the questions toward long con here in particular feel aimless to me

sloonei putting suspicion on lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676220#p676220 is good, but it loses credibility for me when paired with the fact that it comes in the context of him throwing shade on two other players at the same time

more shade on lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676749#p676749 - this is a mild point in sloonei's favor

i'd be interested in hearing other peoples opinions on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677282#p677282. on a surface level, it's good that sloonei is reiterating his suspicions on long con so strongly, but there is a distinct lack of real progression/analysis to justify his read that bothers me a little bit. it almost feels like sloonei went from townreading lc to scumreading him without really explaining his suspicions beyond: "lc isnt very towny"

again, id be more inclined to give sloonei credit for his vote on lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677571#p677571 if he wasn't saying that he had no strong preference between lc/alison/martin - dont his previous posts about lc imply that he should have a strong preference?

how did long con interact with sloonei?

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675032#p675032 is such a nothing interaction, lol

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675578#p675578 has already been brought up multiple times - but it's really, really weird. gth, it looks kind of good for sloonei in the sense that long con seems to be going out of his way to avoid interacting with him

i don't love the soft defense of sloonei on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676495#p676495

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677276#p677276 is an okay look for sloonei - but it would look better for him if long con had actually pushed on or thrown shade at sloonei before this point. it would not particularly surprise me if this is partner interaction

i think lc's push on nutella on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677366#p677366 is notable in the context of lc using it as a means to avoid having to push on sloonei. lc seems to be trying to steer the discussion toward nutella's treatment of sloonei instead of steering the discussion toward sloonei himself, and that reflects poorly on sloonei

conclusion: there are a few minor points in sloonei's favor, but holistically speaking, there are a number of moments in these isos that genuinely make me feel like lc/sloonei is a viable pair. the way that they consistently threw shade on each other without ever really pushing reminds me a lot of how partners would interact in a situation where neither of them are being townread

tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:42 pm Wait huh?

Spf why did u make that big post about nutella and lc interactions and concluding nutella is town? She was ur 3rd top townread yesterday and consensus townread for absolutely everyone, so im puzzled that u put so much effort to come up with the conclusion nutella is town? rather than analyzing someone else

Unless u were planning to do that for absolutely everyone?

im doing it for everyone here, i like to be thorough in case im misreading/getting owned by someone

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:35 pm if martin spent so much time and effort breaking up a v/v fight as scum i will actually be floored. like damn

if he’s scum he has no reason to do that unless teamed with alison or thun and i just... don’t really find that likely

yeah

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:41 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:39 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:37 pm This has not felt like Hally’s scum game that I saw in Champs, but our current interaction is bugging me. Maybe it’s because I’m snippy with all the constant suspicions against me all game, but “lol weird that you’d show up right after someone calls you scum” when I’ve been getting called scum by half the players all game long is like... when am I allowed to post if that’s the case?

im sorry, i didn’t mean to irritate you. that post probably could have gone unmade

if you read my other posts this day i think i’ve been quite fair to you though. i’ve offered several counterpoints to a scum!sloonei world

Sorry, I didn’t mean to say you’re treating me unfairly. At least, not outside that one post. It just seemed like a potentially opportunistic thing to take a swing at, but I’m not sure that is your scum M.O. anyway, and you’ve been a firm town read for most of the game.

it was a dumb gripe. fully acknowledged

fwiw the problem i’m having with seeing you as town is that i don’t know who is mafia then. i think there are legitimate counterpoints to a you-as-scum world and i’ve made them, but that still leaves me with “who then?” and i have a hard time scum reading everyone else too. yet there are two mafia left. so i don’t know what to do with that

anyway, all of this is to say that i look forward to seeing what directions your interaction analysis takes you in and who you come up with as suspects. if you’re town, your insight is invaluable and i don’t want you to feel discouraged from doing things. i haven’t written you off

Wtf guys mafia is only a game why yall in super saiyan mode 24/7. Yall wild. I dig it

I rly loved that u called me tooty sloonei it sounds so adorable omg. Can u call me tooty more often?

Sorry slooni i dont know who mafia. I was convinced carotte mafia. She flip town. I was convinced long con town. He flip mafia. All around me are familiar faces. Worn out places

my brain feels like molasses tonight, tbh. i feel like i'm not expressing myself as coherently/concisely as i would be if i had gotten more sleep. i'm gonna hold off on finishing the analyses until tomorrow, and just hang out for the rest of tonight

fwiw, i agree that martin's posts today have him trending up overall, even if i take issues with his interactions with lc

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:57 pm i looked at sloonei’s treatment of lc and noticed the same thing as nut. overall i’m not really inspired by sloonei’s treatment of lc and feel it could easily be w/w on his end. in particular i dislike that sloonei sussed lc early on but there was a lack of real follow up afterwards

where i think it’s maybe less clear is in lc’s treatment of sloonei. specifically, i think calling sloonei town and more or less shrugging at the suspicion on him by saying “i haven’t caught you doing anything bad” is a weird posture to take with a teammate who has come under such heavy fire early on. lc did later take a harsher stance D2 and call sloonei mafia because “everyone else said so,” which can easily be w/w. i just question why that posture wasn’t present from the beginning if they’re teammates

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:28 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:21 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:57 pm i just question why that posture wasn’t present from the beginning if they’re teammates

Didn't sloonei catch fire early on for the Nutella interaction?

I mean, if the posture is obviously w/w then wouldn't it make sense for that posture to be different if there's a possible D1 bus towards the EoD?

i’m unsure what you’re saying here

im saying lc was dismissive of the early heat on sloonei in a way that seems odd if w/w. if lc/sloonei are w/w, lc probably wants to start distancing early when everyone is digging into sloonei. instead he calls sloonei town and shrugs at the pressure on him. only D2 does lc’s posture change to one that’s much less favorable to sloonei. it’s only then that he calls sloonei a suspect despite sloonei being near the top of everyone’s list for the entire game. if they were w/w, i thiiiiink lc would have adopted a harsher posture towards sloonei earlier along with everyone else, not lag so far behind. gth, his early treatment of sloonei and the progression of that looks more like w/v

[mention]staypositivefriend[/mention] what do you think of this? i saw you kinda touched on it in your analysis just now but not fully. am i giving too much weight to this?

it’s possible im completely off in my expectation of how lc would treat a teammate getting heat but based on lc’s recent scum game, he’s no stranger to distancing/bussing and i see the opposite of that at a time when it seemed the entire thread was against sloonei

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:57 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:57 pm i looked at sloonei’s treatment of lc and noticed the same thing as nut. overall i’m not really inspired by sloonei’s treatment of lc and feel it could easily be w/w on his end. in particular i dislike that sloonei sussed lc early on but there was a lack of real follow up afterwards

where i think it’s maybe less clear is in lc’s treatment of sloonei. specifically, i think calling sloonei town and more or less shrugging at the suspicion on him by saying “i haven’t caught you doing anything bad” is a weird posture to take with a teammate who has come under such heavy fire early on. lc did later take a harsher stance D2 and call sloonei mafia because “everyone else said so,” which can easily be w/w. i just question why that posture wasn’t present from the beginning if they’re teammates

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:28 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:21 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:57 pm i just question why that posture wasn’t present from the beginning if they’re teammates

Didn't sloonei catch fire early on for the Nutella interaction?

I mean, if the posture is obviously w/w then wouldn't it make sense for that posture to be different if there's a possible D1 bus towards the EoD?

i’m unsure what you’re saying here

im saying lc was dismissive of the early heat on sloonei in a way that seems odd if w/w. if lc/sloonei are w/w, lc probably wants to start distancing early when everyone is digging into sloonei. instead he calls sloonei town and shrugs at the pressure on him. only D2 does lc’s posture change to one that’s much less favorable to sloonei. it’s only then that he calls sloonei a suspect despite sloonei being near the top of everyone’s list for the entire game. if they were w/w, i thiiiiink lc would have adopted a harsher posture towards sloonei earlier along with everyone else, not lag so far behind. gth, his early treatment of sloonei and the progression of that looks more like w/v

@staypositivefriend what do you think of this? i saw you kinda touched on it in your analysis just now but not fully. am i giving too much weight to this?

i noticed something similar about LC's interactions with sloonei, but i honestly didn't put much stock into it. i agree that LC townreading sloonei in the way that he did would be a weird angle for LC to take with his partner, but there were still moments where LC threw light shade on sloonei on d1 (like on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675472#p675472).

additionally, it feels like long con wanted to avoid talking about or interacting with sloonei as much as possible - he tried super hard to disengage with sloonei when sloonei asked him questions, and him saying "sloonei hasn't done anything bad yet" almost feels like the path of least resistance for him to take if his goal was to avoid having to engage or interact with sloonei

i get where you're coming from but it doesnt play a major factor into my read on him, tbh

i also just realized that i forgot to respond to your question about how martin's behavior in the treehouse impacts my read on him - i haven't actually looked through the treehouse yet, but i'll let you know if it impacts my perception of him when i dive into it tomorrow

[mention]tutuu[/mention] - i noticed that you went silent for the last ~15 hours of our grasslands chat. is there a particular reason why?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:05 am

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:57 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:57 pm i looked at sloonei’s treatment of lc and noticed the same thing as nut. overall i’m not really inspired by sloonei’s treatment of lc and feel it could easily be w/w on his end. in particular i dislike that sloonei sussed lc early on but there was a lack of real follow up afterwards

where i think it’s maybe less clear is in lc’s treatment of sloonei. specifically, i think calling sloonei town and more or less shrugging at the suspicion on him by saying “i haven’t caught you doing anything bad” is a weird posture to take with a teammate who has come under such heavy fire early on. lc did later take a harsher stance D2 and call sloonei mafia because “everyone else said so,” which can easily be w/w. i just question why that posture wasn’t present from the beginning if they’re teammates

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:28 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:21 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:57 pm i just question why that posture wasn’t present from the beginning if they’re teammates

Didn't sloonei catch fire early on for the Nutella interaction?

I mean, if the posture is obviously w/w then wouldn't it make sense for that posture to be different if there's a possible D1 bus towards the EoD?

i’m unsure what you’re saying here

im saying lc was dismissive of the early heat on sloonei in a way that seems odd if w/w. if lc/sloonei are w/w, lc probably wants to start distancing early when everyone is digging into sloonei. instead he calls sloonei town and shrugs at the pressure on him. only D2 does lc’s posture change to one that’s much less favorable to sloonei. it’s only then that he calls sloonei a suspect despite sloonei being near the top of everyone’s list for the entire game. if they were w/w, i thiiiiink lc would have adopted a harsher posture towards sloonei earlier along with everyone else, not lag so far behind. gth, his early treatment of sloonei and the progression of that looks more like w/v

@staypositivefriend what do you think of this? i saw you kinda touched on it in your analysis just now but not fully. am i giving too much weight to this?

i noticed something similar about LC's interactions with sloonei, but i honestly didn't put much stock into it. i agree that LC townreading sloonei in the way that he did would be a weird angle for LC to take with his partner, but there were still moments where LC threw light shade on sloonei on d1 (like on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675472#p675472).

additionally, it feels like long con wanted to avoid talking about or interacting with sloonei as much as possible - he tried super hard to disengage with sloonei when sloonei asked him questions, and him saying "sloonei hasn't done anything bad yet" almost feels like the path of least resistance for him to take if his goal was to avoid having to engage or interact with sloonei

i get where you're coming from but it doesnt play a major factor into my read on him, tbh

but doesn’t that avoidance almost indicate lc was scared of sloonei? like he’s trying to get out of sloonei’s crosshairs as quickly as he can so he just calls sloonei town and then ducks away and tries to avoid drawing sloonei’s attention for as long as possible. i don’t know, it almost feels like when you call someone and they don’t really want to talk so they try to get off the phone as quickly as possible. lc seemed like he wanted to get off the phone real quick when sloonei interacted with him. is that because he feels awkward interacting with a teammate? or because he feels awkward interacting with a strong villager like sloonei who he knows could Get Him? but maybe if the latter was the case he would try to answer sloonei’s questions better so he could appease sloonei more? but since he already knows sloonei is on his side he’s like “whatever, i don’t need to win you over.” hm. maybe i just talked myself out of it being a good look for sloonei. i don’t know anymore >_>

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:07 am i also just realized that i forgot to respond to your question about how martin's behavior in the treehouse impacts my read on him - i haven't actually looked through the treehouse yet, but i'll let you know if it impacts my perception of him when i dive into it tomorrow

no rush

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:24 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:05 am

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:57 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:57 pm i looked at sloonei’s treatment of lc and noticed the same thing as nut. overall i’m not really inspired by sloonei’s treatment of lc and feel it could easily be w/w on his end. in particular i dislike that sloonei sussed lc early on but there was a lack of real follow up afterwards

where i think it’s maybe less clear is in lc’s treatment of sloonei. specifically, i think calling sloonei town and more or less shrugging at the suspicion on him by saying “i haven’t caught you doing anything bad” is a weird posture to take with a teammate who has come under such heavy fire early on. lc did later take a harsher stance D2 and call sloonei mafia because “everyone else said so,” which can easily be w/w. i just question why that posture wasn’t present from the beginning if they’re teammates

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:28 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:21 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:57 pm i just question why that posture wasn’t present from the beginning if they’re teammates

Didn't sloonei catch fire early on for the Nutella interaction?

I mean, if the posture is obviously w/w then wouldn't it make sense for that posture to be different if there's a possible D1 bus towards the EoD?

i’m unsure what you’re saying here

im saying lc was dismissive of the early heat on sloonei in a way that seems odd if w/w. if lc/sloonei are w/w, lc probably wants to start distancing early when everyone is digging into sloonei. instead he calls sloonei town and shrugs at the pressure on him. only D2 does lc’s posture change to one that’s much less favorable to sloonei. it’s only then that he calls sloonei a suspect despite sloonei being near the top of everyone’s list for the entire game. if they were w/w, i thiiiiink lc would have adopted a harsher posture towards sloonei earlier along with everyone else, not lag so far behind. gth, his early treatment of sloonei and the progression of that looks more like w/v

@staypositivefriend what do you think of this? i saw you kinda touched on it in your analysis just now but not fully. am i giving too much weight to this?

i noticed something similar about LC's interactions with sloonei, but i honestly didn't put much stock into it. i agree that LC townreading sloonei in the way that he did would be a weird angle for LC to take with his partner, but there were still moments where LC threw light shade on sloonei on d1 (like on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675472#p675472).

additionally, it feels like long con wanted to avoid talking about or interacting with sloonei as much as possible - he tried super hard to disengage with sloonei when sloonei asked him questions, and him saying "sloonei hasn't done anything bad yet" almost feels like the path of least resistance for him to take if his goal was to avoid having to engage or interact with sloonei

i get where you're coming from but it doesnt play a major factor into my read on him, tbh

but doesn’t that avoidance almost indicate lc was scared of sloonei? like he’s trying to get out of sloonei’s crosshairs as quickly as he can so he just calls sloonei town and then ducks away and tries to avoid drawing sloonei’s attention for as long as possible. i don’t know, it almost feels like when you call someone and they don’t really want to talk so they try to get off the phone as quickly as possible. lc seemed like he wanted to get off the phone real quick when sloonei interacted with him. is that because he feels awkward interacting with a teammate? or because he feels awkward interacting with a strong villager like sloonei who he knows could Get Him? but maybe if the latter was the case he would try to answer sloonei’s questions better so he could appease sloonei more? but since he already knows sloonei is on his side he’s like “whatever, i don’t need to win you over.” hm. maybe i just talked myself out of it being a good look for sloonei. i don’t know anymore >_>

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:07 am i also just realized that i forgot to respond to your question about how martin's behavior in the treehouse impacts my read on him - i haven't actually looked through the treehouse yet, but i'll let you know if it impacts my perception of him when i dive into it tomorrow

no rush

fwiw, i am getting the impression that long con's desire to get sloonei off of the phone was not a desire that was exclusive to sloonei - he had a similarly cavalier attitude toward me & a large portion of the players here. if his strategy as mafia was to lay as low as possible, sloonei trying to engage with him could interfere with his strategy regardless of sloonei's alignment. as such, i don't think that lc trying to get sloonei off of his back is particularly alignment indicative. it probably would be alignment indicative if we were talking about a player that was trying to engage with everyone, but long con was very performatively disengaged and apatheitc

right, yeah. hrm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:34 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:24 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:05 am

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:57 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:57 pm i looked at sloonei’s treatment of lc and noticed the same thing as nut. overall i’m not really inspired by sloonei’s treatment of lc and feel it could easily be w/w on his end. in particular i dislike that sloonei sussed lc early on but there was a lack of real follow up afterwards

where i think it’s maybe less clear is in lc’s treatment of sloonei. specifically, i think calling sloonei town and more or less shrugging at the suspicion on him by saying “i haven’t caught you doing anything bad” is a weird posture to take with a teammate who has come under such heavy fire early on. lc did later take a harsher stance D2 and call sloonei mafia because “everyone else said so,” which can easily be w/w. i just question why that posture wasn’t present from the beginning if they’re teammates

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:28 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:21 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:57 pm i just question why that posture wasn’t present from the beginning if they’re teammates

Didn't sloonei catch fire early on for the Nutella interaction?

I mean, if the posture is obviously w/w then wouldn't it make sense for that posture to be different if there's a possible D1 bus towards the EoD?

i’m unsure what you’re saying here

im saying lc was dismissive of the early heat on sloonei in a way that seems odd if w/w. if lc/sloonei are w/w, lc probably wants to start distancing early when everyone is digging into sloonei. instead he calls sloonei town and shrugs at the pressure on him. only D2 does lc’s posture change to one that’s much less favorable to sloonei. it’s only then that he calls sloonei a suspect despite sloonei being near the top of everyone’s list for the entire game. if they were w/w, i thiiiiink lc would have adopted a harsher posture towards sloonei earlier along with everyone else, not lag so far behind. gth, his early treatment of sloonei and the progression of that looks more like w/v

@staypositivefriend what do you think of this? i saw you kinda touched on it in your analysis just now but not fully. am i giving too much weight to this?

i noticed something similar about LC's interactions with sloonei, but i honestly didn't put much stock into it. i agree that LC townreading sloonei in the way that he did would be a weird angle for LC to take with his partner, but there were still moments where LC threw light shade on sloonei on d1 (like on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675472#p675472).

additionally, it feels like long con wanted to avoid talking about or interacting with sloonei as much as possible - he tried super hard to disengage with sloonei when sloonei asked him questions, and him saying "sloonei hasn't done anything bad yet" almost feels like the path of least resistance for him to take if his goal was to avoid having to engage or interact with sloonei

i get where you're coming from but it doesnt play a major factor into my read on him, tbh

but doesn’t that avoidance almost indicate lc was scared of sloonei? like he’s trying to get out of sloonei’s crosshairs as quickly as he can so he just calls sloonei town and then ducks away and tries to avoid drawing sloonei’s attention for as long as possible. i don’t know, it almost feels like when you call someone and they don’t really want to talk so they try to get off the phone as quickly as possible. lc seemed like he wanted to get off the phone real quick when sloonei interacted with him. is that because he feels awkward interacting with a teammate? or because he feels awkward interacting with a strong villager like sloonei who he knows could Get Him? but maybe if the latter was the case he would try to answer sloonei’s questions better so he could appease sloonei more? but since he already knows sloonei is on his side he’s like “whatever, i don’t need to win you over.” hm. maybe i just talked myself out of it being a good look for sloonei. i don’t know anymore >_>

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:07 am i also just realized that i forgot to respond to your question about how martin's behavior in the treehouse impacts my read on him - i haven't actually looked through the treehouse yet, but i'll let you know if it impacts my perception of him when i dive into it tomorrow

no rush

fwiw, i am getting the impression that long con's desire to get sloonei off of the phone was not a desire that was exclusive to sloonei - he had a similarly cavalier attitude toward me & a large portion of the players here. if his strategy as mafia was to lay as low as possible, sloonei trying to engage with him could interfere with his strategy regardless of sloonei's alignment. as such, i don't think that lc trying to get sloonei off of his back is particularly alignment indicative. it probably would be alignment indicative if we were talking about a player that was trying to engage with everyone, but long con was very performatively disengaged and apatheitc

If Long Con’s strategy was to lay low, and I was actively trying to get him to not do that, isn’t that a point in my favor?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:38 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:34 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:24 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:05 am

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:57 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:57 pm i looked at sloonei’s treatment of lc and noticed the same thing as nut. overall i’m not really inspired by sloonei’s treatment of lc and feel it could easily be w/w on his end. in particular i dislike that sloonei sussed lc early on but there was a lack of real follow up afterwards

where i think it’s maybe less clear is in lc’s treatment of sloonei. specifically, i think calling sloonei town and more or less shrugging at the suspicion on him by saying “i haven’t caught you doing anything bad” is a weird posture to take with a teammate who has come under such heavy fire early on. lc did later take a harsher stance D2 and call sloonei mafia because “everyone else said so,” which can easily be w/w. i just question why that posture wasn’t present from the beginning if they’re teammates

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:28 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:21 pm

Didn't sloonei catch fire early on for the Nutella interaction?

I mean, if the posture is obviously w/w then wouldn't it make sense for that posture to be different if there's a possible D1 bus towards the EoD?

i’m unsure what you’re saying here

im saying lc was dismissive of the early heat on sloonei in a way that seems odd if w/w. if lc/sloonei are w/w, lc probably wants to start distancing early when everyone is digging into sloonei. instead he calls sloonei town and shrugs at the pressure on him. only D2 does lc’s posture change to one that’s much less favorable to sloonei. it’s only then that he calls sloonei a suspect despite sloonei being near the top of everyone’s list for the entire game. if they were w/w, i thiiiiink lc would have adopted a harsher posture towards sloonei earlier along with everyone else, not lag so far behind. gth, his early treatment of sloonei and the progression of that looks more like w/v

@staypositivefriend what do you think of this? i saw you kinda touched on it in your analysis just now but not fully. am i giving too much weight to this?

i noticed something similar about LC's interactions with sloonei, but i honestly didn't put much stock into it. i agree that LC townreading sloonei in the way that he did would be a weird angle for LC to take with his partner, but there were still moments where LC threw light shade on sloonei on d1 (like on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675472#p675472).

additionally, it feels like long con wanted to avoid talking about or interacting with sloonei as much as possible - he tried super hard to disengage with sloonei when sloonei asked him questions, and him saying "sloonei hasn't done anything bad yet" almost feels like the path of least resistance for him to take if his goal was to avoid having to engage or interact with sloonei

i get where you're coming from but it doesnt play a major factor into my read on him, tbh

but doesn’t that avoidance almost indicate lc was scared of sloonei? like he’s trying to get out of sloonei’s crosshairs as quickly as he can so he just calls sloonei town and then ducks away and tries to avoid drawing sloonei’s attention for as long as possible. i don’t know, it almost feels like when you call someone and they don’t really want to talk so they try to get off the phone as quickly as possible. lc seemed like he wanted to get off the phone real quick when sloonei interacted with him. is that because he feels awkward interacting with a teammate? or because he feels awkward interacting with a strong villager like sloonei who he knows could Get Him? but maybe if the latter was the case he would try to answer sloonei’s questions better so he could appease sloonei more? but since he already knows sloonei is on his side he’s like “whatever, i don’t need to win you over.” hm. maybe i just talked myself out of it being a good look for sloonei. i don’t know anymore >_>

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:07 am i also just realized that i forgot to respond to your question about how martin's behavior in the treehouse impacts my read on him - i haven't actually looked through the treehouse yet, but i'll let you know if it impacts my perception of him when i dive into it tomorrow

no rush

fwiw, i am getting the impression that long con's desire to get sloonei off of the phone was not a desire that was exclusive to sloonei - he had a similarly cavalier attitude toward me & a large portion of the players here. if his strategy as mafia was to lay as low as possible, sloonei trying to engage with him could interfere with his strategy regardless of sloonei's alignment. as such, i don't think that lc trying to get sloonei off of his back is particularly alignment indicative. it probably would be alignment indicative if we were talking about a player that was trying to engage with everyone, but long con was very performatively disengaged and apatheitc

If Long Con’s strategy was to lay low, and I was actively trying to get him to not do that, isn’t that a point in my favor?

perhaps, but are you saying that you would outright ignore long con if you were partnered with him? if you're scum and you want to emulate your town game, then trying to force long con to interact with you is something that you would be doing regardless of long con's strategy - don't you think?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:40 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:38 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:34 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:24 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:05 am

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:57 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:57 pm i looked at sloonei’s treatment of lc and noticed the same thing as nut. overall i’m not really inspired by sloonei’s treatment of lc and feel it could easily be w/w on his end. in particular i dislike that sloonei sussed lc early on but there was a lack of real follow up afterwards

where i think it’s maybe less clear is in lc’s treatment of sloonei. specifically, i think calling sloonei town and more or less shrugging at the suspicion on him by saying “i haven’t caught you doing anything bad” is a weird posture to take with a teammate who has come under such heavy fire early on. lc did later take a harsher stance D2 and call sloonei mafia because “everyone else said so,” which can easily be w/w. i just question why that posture wasn’t present from the beginning if they’re teammates

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:28 pm
i’m unsure what you’re saying here

im saying lc was dismissive of the early heat on sloonei in a way that seems odd if w/w. if lc/sloonei are w/w, lc probably wants to start distancing early when everyone is digging into sloonei. instead he calls sloonei town and shrugs at the pressure on him. only D2 does lc’s posture change to one that’s much less favorable to sloonei. it’s only then that he calls sloonei a suspect despite sloonei being near the top of everyone’s list for the entire game. if they were w/w, i thiiiiink lc would have adopted a harsher posture towards sloonei earlier along with everyone else, not lag so far behind. gth, his early treatment of sloonei and the progression of that looks more like w/v

@staypositivefriend what do you think of this? i saw you kinda touched on it in your analysis just now but not fully. am i giving too much weight to this?

i noticed something similar about LC's interactions with sloonei, but i honestly didn't put much stock into it. i agree that LC townreading sloonei in the way that he did would be a weird angle for LC to take with his partner, but there were still moments where LC threw light shade on sloonei on d1 (like on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675472#p675472).

additionally, it feels like long con wanted to avoid talking about or interacting with sloonei as much as possible - he tried super hard to disengage with sloonei when sloonei asked him questions, and him saying "sloonei hasn't done anything bad yet" almost feels like the path of least resistance for him to take if his goal was to avoid having to engage or interact with sloonei

i get where you're coming from but it doesnt play a major factor into my read on him, tbh

but doesn’t that avoidance almost indicate lc was scared of sloonei? like he’s trying to get out of sloonei’s crosshairs as quickly as he can so he just calls sloonei town and then ducks away and tries to avoid drawing sloonei’s attention for as long as possible. i don’t know, it almost feels like when you call someone and they don’t really want to talk so they try to get off the phone as quickly as possible. lc seemed like he wanted to get off the phone real quick when sloonei interacted with him. is that because he feels awkward interacting with a teammate? or because he feels awkward interacting with a strong villager like sloonei who he knows could Get Him? but maybe if the latter was the case he would try to answer sloonei’s questions better so he could appease sloonei more? but since he already knows sloonei is on his side he’s like “whatever, i don’t need to win you over.” hm. maybe i just talked myself out of it being a good look for sloonei. i don’t know anymore >_>

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:07 am i also just realized that i forgot to respond to your question about how martin's behavior in the treehouse impacts my read on him - i haven't actually looked through the treehouse yet, but i'll let you know if it impacts my perception of him when i dive into it tomorrow

no rush

fwiw, i am getting the impression that long con's desire to get sloonei off of the phone was not a desire that was exclusive to sloonei - he had a similarly cavalier attitude toward me & a large portion of the players here. if his strategy as mafia was to lay as low as possible, sloonei trying to engage with him could interfere with his strategy regardless of sloonei's alignment. as such, i don't think that lc trying to get sloonei off of his back is particularly alignment indicative. it probably would be alignment indicative if we were talking about a player that was trying to engage with everyone, but long con was very performatively disengaged and apatheitc

If Long Con’s strategy was to lay low, and I was actively trying to get him to not do that, isn’t that a point in my favor?

perhaps, but are you saying that you would outright ignore long con if you were partnered with him? if you're scum and you want to emulate your town game, then trying to force long con to interact with you is something that you would be doing regardless of long con's strategy - don't you think?

Probably to some extent, I guess.

[mention]Sloonei[/mention] are you a busser? like, on a scale of 1 to 10, how would you rate your propensity to distance or bus your teammates? is doing theater with scummates out of your scum range?

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:46 am @Sloonei are you a busser? like, on a scale of 1 to 10, how would you rate your propensity to distance or bus your teammates? is doing theater with scummates out of your scum range?

It is always situation-dependent, but I would say that I’m a more aggressive busser than the average player. Maybe like a 7, if 5 is completely average.

I prefer not to initiate suspicion on my partners. I feel as though I initiated suspicion on Long Con in this game, though others may not see it that way.

if sloonei is mafia, who makes the most sense as his partner? who is definitely not his partner?

this is an open-ended question, and something that im thinking about rn

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:48 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:46 am @Sloonei are you a busser? like, on a scale of 1 to 10, how would you rate your propensity to distance or bus your teammates? is doing theater with scummates out of your scum range?

It is always situation-dependent, but I would say that I’m a more aggressive busser than the average player. Maybe like a 7, if 5 is completely average.

I prefer not to initiate suspicion on my partners. I feel as though I initiated suspicion on Long Con in this game, though others may not see it that way.

oh, interesting. my perception of you was that you would tend not to bus much, but apparently that’s wrong

would you ever case a teammate?

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:51 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:48 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:46 am @Sloonei are you a busser? like, on a scale of 1 to 10, how would you rate your propensity to distance or bus your teammates? is doing theater with scummates out of your scum range?

It is always situation-dependent, but I would say that I’m a more aggressive busser than the average player. Maybe like a 7, if 5 is completely average.

I prefer not to initiate suspicion on my partners. I feel as though I initiated suspicion on Long Con in this game, though others may not see it that way.

oh, interesting. my perception of you was that you would tend not to bus much, but apparently that’s wrong

would you ever case a teammate?

Where’d you get that idea? (Not a game-relevant question, I’m just curious)

Yes, I’d definitely case a teammate if the situation called for it.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:49 am if sloonei is mafia, who makes the most sense as his partner? who is definitely not his partner?

this is an open-ended question, and something that im thinking about rn

to be honest, right now i’m wondering if sloonei/alison is at all possible as a pairing because i... kinda think everyone else might just be town?! am i crazy? i think i am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:53 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:51 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:48 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:46 am @Sloonei are you a busser? like, on a scale of 1 to 10, how would you rate your propensity to distance or bus your teammates? is doing theater with scummates out of your scum range?

It is always situation-dependent, but I would say that I’m a more aggressive busser than the average player. Maybe like a 7, if 5 is completely average.

I prefer not to initiate suspicion on my partners. I feel as though I initiated suspicion on Long Con in this game, though others may not see it that way.

oh, interesting. my perception of you was that you would tend not to bus much, but apparently that’s wrong

would you ever case a teammate?

Where’d you get that idea? (Not a game-relevant question, I’m just curious)

Yes, I’d definitely case a teammate if the situation called for it.

i dunno, you seem like a very mild mannered and cooperative person/player, and generally i would think that would indicate you’d try to avoid bussing and attempt to protect teammates more. but that was just a hunch

would you ever push alison like you did as teammates? as in, if she started bussing you, would you bus back to curry favor with jay? or is that not a situation that would call for that?

i feel like im the lawyer in “a few good men” rn

DID YOU ORDER THE CODE RED SLOONEI?!

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:53 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:49 am if sloonei is mafia, who makes the most sense as his partner? who is definitely not his partner?

this is an open-ended question, and something that im thinking about rn

to be honest, right now i’m wondering if sloonei/alison is at all possible as a pairing because i... kinda think everyone else might just be town?! am i crazy? i think i am

my gut reaction to this was: "nah, i doubt it", but if you asked me to name my top two suspects right now, they would probably be sloonei and alison. shrug. it's something worth exploring even if i feel like there's some reason why that team doesn't work

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:57 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:53 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:51 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:48 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:46 am @Sloonei are you a busser? like, on a scale of 1 to 10, how would you rate your propensity to distance or bus your teammates? is doing theater with scummates out of your scum range?

It is always situation-dependent, but I would say that I’m a more aggressive busser than the average player. Maybe like a 7, if 5 is completely average.

I prefer not to initiate suspicion on my partners. I feel as though I initiated suspicion on Long Con in this game, though others may not see it that way.

oh, interesting. my perception of you was that you would tend not to bus much, but apparently that’s wrong

would you ever case a teammate?

Where’d you get that idea? (Not a game-relevant question, I’m just curious)

Yes, I’d definitely case a teammate if the situation called for it.

i dunno, you seem like a very mild mannered and cooperative person/player, and generally i would think that would indicate you’d try to avoid bussing and attempt to protect teammates more. but that was just a hunch

would you ever push alison like you did as teammates? as in, if she started bussing you, would you bus back to curry favor with jay? or is that not a situation that would call for that?

It would depend entirely on the situation. I can’t give you a definitive answer one way or the other. Something like that would not be out of my wheelhouse, generally speaking.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:11 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:57 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:53 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:51 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:48 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:46 am @Sloonei are you a busser? like, on a scale of 1 to 10, how would you rate your propensity to distance or bus your teammates? is doing theater with scummates out of your scum range?

It is always situation-dependent, but I would say that I’m a more aggressive busser than the average player. Maybe like a 7, if 5 is completely average.

I prefer not to initiate suspicion on my partners. I feel as though I initiated suspicion on Long Con in this game, though others may not see it that way.

oh, interesting. my perception of you was that you would tend not to bus much, but apparently that’s wrong

would you ever case a teammate?

Where’d you get that idea? (Not a game-relevant question, I’m just curious)

Yes, I’d definitely case a teammate if the situation called for it.

i dunno, you seem like a very mild mannered and cooperative person/player, and generally i would think that would indicate you’d try to avoid bussing and attempt to protect teammates more. but that was just a hunch

would you ever push alison like you did as teammates? as in, if she started bussing you, would you bus back to curry favor with jay? or is that not a situation that would call for that?

It would depend entirely on the situation. I can’t give you a definitive answer one way or the other. Something like that would not be out of my wheelhouse, generally speaking.

something something

- alison sees sloonei getting heat, jumps in saying sloonei is “making stuff up,” which is overly harsh because she Knows sloonei is doing that (alison did a similar thing with mac D1 of space invaders)
- sloonei resists suspecting alison back for a bit, instead saying that my push on him is the one that most rubs him wrong. he even kinda pushes back on jay having alison in his poe
- meanwhile, jay calls out alison for her overly harsh treatment of sloonei and quickly makes alison his Top Suspect
- sloonei sees that and knows jay expects him to agree with him if they’re both town, so he decides that he should bus alison back to curry favor with jay. he knows he doesn’t have a top notch scum performance in him and that he won’t be able to shake the pressure he’s getting, so he thinks bussing alison is the only way to get cred and/or set alison up to go deep if he goes over
- alison meanwhile has moved on to trying to push Not Sloonei (thun)
- they both make it known repeatedly that they’re each other’s top suspects but try to avoid getting each other over for as long as they can

is this a terrible theory? perhaps. will i post in anyway? yes, yes i will

in conclusion:

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:07 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:27 am something something

- alison sees sloonei getting heat, jumps in saying sloonei is “making stuff up,” which is overly harsh because she Knows sloonei is doing that (alison did a similar thing with mac D1 of space invaders)
- sloonei resists suspecting alison back for a bit, instead saying that my push on him is the one that most rubs him wrong. he even kinda pushes back on jay having alison in his poe
- meanwhile, jay calls out alison for her overly harsh treatment of sloonei and quickly makes alison his Top Suspect
- sloonei sees that and knows jay expects him to agree with him if they’re both town, so he decides that he should bus alison back to curry favor with jay. he knows he doesn’t have a top notch scum performance in him and that he won’t be able to shake the pressure he’s getting, so he thinks bussing alison is the only way to get cred and/or set alison up to go deep if he goes over
- alison meanwhile has moved on to trying to push Not Sloonei (thun)
- they both make it known repeatedly that they’re each other’s top suspects but try to avoid getting each other over for as long as they can

is this a terrible theory? perhaps. will i post in anyway? yes, yes i will

alison pushing the angle of: "im going to thunderdome thunal today no matter what" does make sense if viewed through the framework of alison trying to find a way to avoid having to hardpush on sloonei. i do like that alison is re-considering her read on thunal, but it's notable that her attention has mostly been outside of sloonei in spite of him being one of her top scumreads. the jay kill also makes me feel a little nervous about alison even though i know speculating on night kills is silly/meaningless

it still feels too easy, though? like i honestly have been getting the impression that i'm getting owned by someone, and i really doubt that im 2/2 on d3

that theory is super half-baked and probably incomplete or inaccurate on some points. i just wrote it off the top of my head without looking back at anything because im a pro mafia player (and by that i mean im terrible)

idk it’s 1am im running on no sleep and cannot be held accountable for the things i post, don’t @ me

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:31 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:27 am something something

- alison sees sloonei getting heat, jumps in saying sloonei is “making stuff up,” which is overly harsh because she Knows sloonei is doing that (alison did a similar thing with mac D1 of space invaders)
- sloonei resists suspecting alison back for a bit, instead saying that my push on him is the one that most rubs him wrong. he even kinda pushes back on jay having alison in his poe
- meanwhile, jay calls out alison for her overly harsh treatment of sloonei and quickly makes alison his Top Suspect
- sloonei sees that and knows jay expects him to agree with him if they’re both town, so he decides that he should bus alison back to curry favor with jay. he knows he doesn’t have a top notch scum performance in him and that he won’t be able to shake the pressure he’s getting, so he thinks bussing alison is the only way to get cred and/or set alison up to go deep if he goes over
- alison meanwhile has moved on to trying to push Not Sloonei (thun)
- they both make it known repeatedly that they’re each other’s top suspects but try to avoid getting each other over for as long as they can

is this a terrible theory? perhaps. will i post in anyway? yes, yes i will

alison pushing the angle of: "im going to thunderdome thunal today no matter what" does make sense if viewed through the framework of alison trying to find a way to avoid having to hardpush on sloonei. i do like that alison is re-considering her read on thunal, but it's notable that her attention has mostly been outside of sloonei in spite of him being one of her top scumreads. the jay kill also makes me feel a little nervous about alison even though i know speculating on night kills is silly/meaningless

it still feels too easy, though? like i honestly have been getting the impression that i'm getting owned by someone, and i really doubt that im 2/2 on d3

i mean, one of the first things i did this day was town case thun and explain why she wasn’t w/w with lc, which honestly was partly to shut down a thun/alison thunderdome before it could happen. i guess alison could fight me on that and try to thunderdome thun anyway but i... dont think that would work because pretty much everyone but her town reads thun. if she’s mafia, she probably needs to change course and do something else

fwiw, if we are getting hard core owned by someone i feel like it’s tutuu. that might be crazy but i feel like tutuu has kind of fallen off a cliff since D1. i do wonder if she would be so brazen in her defense of lc if teamed though, but i feel like tutuu would be able to get away with a lot of stuff as scum because she knows people will probably shrug and chalk it up to “loltutuu” and continue town reading her anyway. idk, i’m like terrified of what tutuu’s scum game looks like lmao

I do not think it’s an accurate theory.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:31 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:27 am something something

- alison sees sloonei getting heat, jumps in saying sloonei is “making stuff up,” which is overly harsh because she Knows sloonei is doing that (alison did a similar thing with mac D1 of space invaders)
- sloonei resists suspecting alison back for a bit, instead saying that my push on him is the one that most rubs him wrong. he even kinda pushes back on jay having alison in his poe
- meanwhile, jay calls out alison for her overly harsh treatment of sloonei and quickly makes alison his Top Suspect
- sloonei sees that and knows jay expects him to agree with him if they’re both town, so he decides that he should bus alison back to curry favor with jay. he knows he doesn’t have a top notch scum performance in him and that he won’t be able to shake the pressure he’s getting, so he thinks bussing alison is the only way to get cred and/or set alison up to go deep if he goes over
- alison meanwhile has moved on to trying to push Not Sloonei (thun)
- they both make it known repeatedly that they’re each other’s top suspects but try to avoid getting each other over for as long as they can

is this a terrible theory? perhaps. will i post in anyway? yes, yes i will

alison pushing the angle of: "im going to thunderdome thunal today no matter what" does make sense if viewed through the framework of alison trying to find a way to avoid having to hardpush on sloonei. i do like that alison is re-considering her read on thunal, but it's notable that her attention has mostly been outside of sloonei in spite of him being one of her top scumreads. the jay kill also makes me feel a little nervous about alison even though i know speculating on night kills is silly/meaningless

it still feels too easy, though? like i honestly have been getting the impression that i'm getting owned by someone, and i really doubt that im 2/2 on d3

If that was my angle I would be playing up the tunnelled townie line and would use it as an excuse to stick to the thunderdome rather than moving away after Hally posted in the quicktopic arguing that I shouldn't. I don't actually think my attention has been mostly outside of Sloonei given that JJJ actually took issue with my suspicion on Sloonei and had an interaction with me where he tried to shoot down my Sloonei suspicions.

The POE is small enough that for Sloonei not to be scum would mean that there are two deepwolves. I think that's really hard for mafia to have in general, and I think if they did have two deepwolves they would have enough clout to convince everyone not to vote LC. Therefore there's only one deepwolf as most. Therefore Sloonei is scum.

If we accept this, I think the people with the highest deepwolf equity are nanook or tutuu. Both had strong D1s and D2s and then are doing less D3 after a scum exe. I don't think nanook has posted at all and tutuu has gone all-in on the "I am a sheep" thing. I still townread them individually and think this behavior is very well within their respective town ranges, but it's where I'd look first for a deepwolf.

It's hard to see Thunal being buddied with both Sloonei and LC because there is associative evidence against Thunal/LC and against Thunal/Sloonei at this point. So unless some real shenanigans were involved I probably have to lay down my suspicions of Thunal as well.

Hally and SPF are both individually really town and both (iirc) have taken attempts to break up stuff like Thunal/Alison thunderdome that was totally unnecessary to do as scum, when they could have let it ride and allowed town to self destruct. Also, they townread each other hard, and the team being exactly Hally/SPF is extremely unlikely for a lot of reasons, so I'm fairly sure that mutual townread/mindmeld is in good faith. nutella nailed LC to a wall. I have my soulread on Martin. So it's just Sloonei and (nook/tutuu) probably.

Also note: if I was scum here and pincered in a POE with Sloonei, I would be trying to widen the POE by reopening my case on Thunal, not calling for a Sloonei exe when scum!Alison has virtually no chance of winning if her scum buddy gets exed today. That is the path to victory if I am scum with Sloonei here, and I have chosen to walk away from it, because I am town and I am willing to let myself get exed in a tight POE if I believe that POE is game winning.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:17 am @tutuu - i noticed that you went silent for the last ~15 hours of our grasslands chat. is there a particular reason why?

It started getting heated up

What was the game where we yeeted 112 d1 and she flipped mafia. Animals in the zoo? Thats a game where i was town and got depressed after a scum flip [mention]Hally[/mention] (because i townread her)

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:33 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:21 pm Okay. I think Thunal33 and Alison's differences or scum-reads on each other were kinda set-up to turn out this way after having early-game differences on play-style or perception.

Oh yeah I forgot to

@Alison
@Thunal33

See the big post that I quoted here. Use the arrow in the quote to jump to it.

Tl;dr

You guys are TvT in my opinion, as much as I hate to say that I think your guys scum-reads on each other are wrong in the sense that neither of you two are scum even if some of the points exchanged between you two were valid. However, those valid reasons stemmed in part from key differences in viewpoints or playstyles of Forum Mafia and (in some cases) what constitutes as townie. If either of you two were wolves I think reasons not stemming from these key differences would have become apparent and maybe even these scum-reads appear sooner than they did. Or at least, I don't feel like there's any wolves in that conflict.

I agree with this, I think Alison's approach to me isn't something she would do as scum and isn't something that benefits scum. I played with her as SK and skimmed her scum game and when Alison has an agenda she doesn't completely stick to fights like this.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:46 pm i really dislike this post - martin is going out of his way to say that LC is null and acting annoyed that he has to talk about him at all - even though he spent a lot of d1 implying that long con was scummy, and he put long con as gth scum in an exercise a few hours earlier. i don't understand why martin would choose to hedge on lc's alignment here as town, especially since his reasoning for "holding off" feels more and more flimsy the longer that he uses it as a justification for not taking a stance on lc

I didn't interpret that post as saying LC was null, I interpreted it as Martin saying he already stated his read on LC but I could be wrong.