The Syndicate

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:35 pm**

The POE condemning both nook and Kyle was not game losing because we had the spare exes to go through both of them and then settle down and find the deepwolf. That's the point I'm making to you. If we had two exes and nook and Kyle were on the block then we would have fucked up. But we had the exes to play it both ways, to clean up the POE the way we saw it and then play a standard F3 amongst "cleared" citizens by proving that at least one of them was miscleared.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:35 pm**

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:28 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:07 pm Okay, maybe I got too agitated.

I apologize if I offended you Alison, but I think we just have critical differences in perspective of Fourm Mafia play.

I was perhaps unfairly sensitive to the word use of "wrong" (as the connotation can be associated with more negatively than just facts such as morality), but I'm willing to admit in some aspects that my play was incorrect or suboptimal. I just don't think it was the worst.
No, you didn't offend me. I don't get mad when I lose games of mafia. I've lost a billion games of mafia, in way more embarrassing ways than this, and I wasn't upset at any of them, because that's the risk you accept when you sign up to a game, that you could get tricked and lose the game. And at the end of the day it's a detective game for 0 stakes. I got annoyed because you accused me of being bad at mafia and having no evidence to support my claims about how to play the game and then snap voting me 5 minutes into F3. I don't think you should be criticizing my ideas about game theory and calling me lazy, unmotivated etc. when I clearly was able and willing to put a lot of effort into solving the game and had specific reasons why I was pushing for an auto on Kyle. Snap voting 5 minutes into F3 is just always a bad play so I felt it was pretty hypocritical of you to criticize my understanding of theory right after doing that.

I apologize for questioning your play, I wasn't right in doing that even if I scum-read you. This is a really rare experience for me, as I normally don't get so agitated (if one would believe me I'm generally more resistant to that than most people), but that makes the lessons learned all the more valuable.

Like I said, I think I was unfairly judging the meaning of some of your word-choice, and I was perhaps too invested in this game. I'll try to do better in the future and try to consider that more, regardless of what I think about you. As well as monitoring my own word choice, as I now know what thoughts I had that led me to make bad decisions in this respect.

Aside from the end there, it was nice playing with you.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:36 pm**

Basically: if one finds themself saying "it is nearly impossible for me to view you as town" to anyone in a game that does not offer conclusive mechanical solutions, then that player could probably stand to take a step back and reconsider their world view -- especially if they are allowed to be alive in a final three. They may not necessarily change their mind, but it should be reasonably plausible to change their mind. Nothing's likely to be so kind to a probabilistic approach in a mountainous-adjacent game inherently designed to force players to rely upon behavioral reads.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:36 pm**

"Play" needs a better definition. I'm using the more vague sense of the word there, as in I was questioning you as a player.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:37 pm**

Like it's easy to say "just get there on Kyle so he isn't a liability in F3 any more 4head" but doing that has its own risks as well, which both of you should know, because you've both lost games by deviating from a POE which would have won the game because the wolf "acted townie" at endgame. I made the move that I calculated was able to both avert that risk by getting rid of the big question mark and also give town a chance to win fairly by playing a regular F3. We got rid of the question mark, but F3 crumpled instantly. That's life.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:40 pm**

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:37 pm Like it's easy to say "just get there on Kyle so he isn't a liability in F3 any more 4head" but doing that has its own risks as well, which both of you should know, because you've both lost games by deviating from a POE which would have won the game because the wolf "acted townie" at endgame. I made the move that I calculated was able to both avert that risk by getting rid of the big question mark and also give town a chance to win fairly by playing a regular F3. We got rid of the question mark, but F3 crumpled instantly. That's life.

To be clear, I don't think eliminating Kyle first was "wrong", and indeed the final three y'all ended up with could have worked. I just don't think it was strictly necessary, or at least it shouldn't be strictly necessary. If it is strictly necessary, then at least one civilian has not played the game optimally.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:41 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:36 pm Basically: if one finds themself saying "it is nearly impossible for me to view you as town" to anyone in a game that does not offer conclusive mechanical solutions, then that player could probably stand to take a step back and reconsider their world view -- especially if they are allowed to be alive in a final three. They may not necessarily change their mind, but it should be reasonably plausible to change their mind. Nothing's likely to be so kind to a probabilistic approach in a mountainous-adjacent game inherently designed to force players to rely upon behavioral reads.

If Kyle is town and they exe me then BK just blasts Martin (since Martin was leaning towards Kyle town) and enters an endgame of ts account-Kylemii-BoKnows.

I don't think I can be blamed for not having any faith in that endgame. Because even if you say "well everyone should have the possibility of re-evalling open in their minds in mountainous", the facts of the matter are that given the gamestate and the reads expressed so far I don't think that gamestate leads to a victory. And I think if you were go to back in time and have me back down and say "okay okay I guess kyle is town after all" it wouldn't have helped.

And that's assuming that Kyle is town in the first place, which is nowhere near proven when everyone else has collected a pelt and he hasn't.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:42 pm**

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:37 pm Like it's easy to say "just get there on Kyle so he isn't a liability in F3 any more 4head" but doing that has its own risks as well, which both of you should know, because you've both lost games by deviating from a POE which would have won the game because the wolf "acted townie" at endgame. I made the move that I calculated was able to both avert that risk by getting rid of the big question mark and also give town a chance to win fairly by playing a regular F3. We got rid of the question mark, but F3 crumpled instantly. That's life.

I think I have seen more games lost by incorrectly plowing through a poe that the deepwolf is happy to let slide.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:43 pm**

Also mech reasons and "pelts" are silly when wolves can get those on their side and some ppl are just obvtown on tone fmpov but that's another matter

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:47 pm**

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:42 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:37 pm Like it's easy to say "just get there on Kyle so he isn't a liability in F3 any more 4head" but doing that has its own risks as well, which both of you should know, because you've both lost games by deviating from a POE which would have won the game because the wolf "acted townie" at endgame. I made the move that I calculated was able to both avert that risk by getting rid of the big question mark and also give town a chance to win fairly by playing a regular F3. We got rid of the question mark, but F3 crumpled instantly. That's life.
I think I have seen more games lost by incorrectly plowing through a poe that the deepwolf is happy to let slide.

In my experience playing mafia, if I look at all the games I see lost by deviating from a good POE vs the games I see lost by following a bad POE, I'd say it's a ratio of 2:1 in favor of deviating from a good POE. That seems intuitive to me because as Kyle and Martin have brought up people tend to not be robots, they're more likely to create chaos in an orderly situation out of paranoia than to hold faith in a bad POE after multiple green flips in a row. And also because deepwolves by definition tend to be rare. Like, when the whole wolf team piles on a player D1 to save themselves, 9 times out of 10 that player is town. And it is precisely because of that that people get townread for it.

I have no doubt you're telling the truth about your experiences, but I've seen a crapton of games lost by wrongful deviation as well. I have to take that into account when making my decisions this game.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:50 pm**

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:43 pm Also mech reasons and "pelts" are silly when wolves can get those on their side and some ppl are just obvtown on tone fmpov but that's another matter

Kyle is an uncleared individual up against:

- a trust telling slot
- someone who the whole wolf team piled on in self-pres D1
- someone who buried a wolf D1

I don't think "tone" is enough to make him townie enough to risk the game to save. And "tone" + a good interaction with Falcon was all he had to his credit.

If I'm trusting enough to let tone sway me, maybe I'd have had more chance of winning this game, but I'd lose the next five because anyone who can fake good tone can easily finesse me.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:51 pm**

Eh I think the poe approach was fine, probably worth reevaluation fmpov when esooa was nked heading into f5, or that's when I would've gone "something is fucky" amd reconsidered bo at least, but maybe esooa was nked because I was already dead, idk

F3 was not great

But I don't think killing myself and Kyle was all that bad, at least for me I was townie on play but had terrible votes so I get it.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:51 pm**

The bright side of this is that I don't have to play this F3 on my girlfriend's birthday tomorrow and can spend time with her instead. So maybe Martin helped me out after all lol.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:52 pm**

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:51 pm Eh I think the poe approach was fine, probably worth reevaluation fmpov when esooa was nked heading into f5, or that's when I would've gone "something is fucky" amd reconsidered bo at least, but maybe esooa was nked because I was already dead, idk

F3 was not great

But I don't think killing myself and Kyle was all that bad, at least for me I was townie on play but had terrible votes so I get it.

The person who the Esooa kill pointed most strongly to was Martin I think. Pushing on that angle would've led town astray too. I think I actually factored that in when considering F5.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:57 pm**

I thought it pointed more to bo imo but I was also spoiled around then so idk

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:58 pm**

I had it in my head that if you or esooa got NKed bo should be reevaluated anyways

But that isn't something you can put in thread at f7 lol

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:58 pm**

Esooa died saying Martin was scum and BK was never-vote, even at F3. I guess maybe Esooa was killed to lock those reads in, and it was a case where scum shot the loosest cannon because they went deep?

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:00 pm**

Bo done good

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:00 pm**

GG all, think I finally "get" TS.

Can we see the original rand @Sloonei?

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:02 pm**

Also good job mafia team

My RNGed d1 reads had you as three of the top four town so thats a fun fact

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:03 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:00 pm Bo done good

Yeah he played really well.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:04 pm**

KZA wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:29 pmCanucks GOAT

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:00 pm Bo done good

Thanks

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:07 pm**

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:00 pm GG all, think I finally "get" TS.

Can we see the original rand @Sloonei?

I think I'm safe to say I was a mafia in the original run. I don't know if I can discuss who else were the mafia.

My ISO in the original run: https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/searc ... 8&sr=posts

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:08 pm**

Syn and 1612 were the other two.

Its pinned in the dead/spec chat so I'm sure it's fine to share

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:09 pm**

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:08 pm Syn and 1612 were the other two.

Its pinned in the dead/spec chat so I'm sure it's fine to share

Ah okay so it was fine to share. The reason why the re-rand happened was because of a replacement / potential mod-kill crisis that might have been prone to angle-shooting.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:11 pm**

So all those times we yeet BK Day 1 were probably great plays on our part.

Good game y'all.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:13 pm**

woo, good job on bringing it home BK.

i wont lie, i was actually really pissed about getting shot because very few town actually gave a damn about solving anything that day. those who did should know who they are and i'm grateful for them. complacent town lynching scum is incredibly frustrating

that said, it's been a long time since i've played and so this was my first time meeting a lot of people in this game. i think this game showed off the change in playstyle that's happened here since i've been gone. it was refreshing. thanks for the game yall

ps i am the mvp

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:14 pm**

Now that this rollicking game is over, come sign up for one of these exciting upcoming events:

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Sure to be full of fun and excitement and joy

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:29 pm**

This is already updated in the site Hall of Fame thanks to the spreadsheet wizardry of the @Marmot.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:41 pm**

KZA wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:29 pmCanucks GOAT

BK done us proud. Flawless finish

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:21 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:17 pm Alison-Kyle-BK --> Alison decides Kyle is town and votes BK
Martin-Kyle-BK --> Martin decides Kyle is town and votes BK
Mikey-Kyle-BK --> Mikey decides Kyle is town and votes BK (doesn't appear to me his inactivity was severe enough to presume a non-vote)

If any of these things is so unlikely that it is inconceivable, then that's not the fault of statistical probability -- it's the fault of erroneous town mindset(s).

Deciding a player must be eliminated given some set of inexact evidence (e.g. bad votes or associations in a near-mountainous game) is not precisely "optimal", at least in that it is less than the maximum possible potential of human deduction. It's a by-the-numbers approach, and in a final three that kind of mindset often needs to take a hike.

Granted, there may be/are probably some important contextual details I lack.

thank you.

alison treating my chop at f3 as a foregone conclusion because of it being something she wanted to do was a product of logical fallacy, and that's why it bothered me so much. she didn't seem to read me as mafia but insisted that she'd have to vote me at final 3 which is only the case in situations where she decides to do so. in any scenario where alison and i share the final 3 and alison decides to take the game seriously, that self-made crisis is immediately averted. mafia just isn't a logic puzzle. it's a social game, and being able to solve people without killing them is probably the most important skill there is.

and i know this is monday morning quarterback=ing but had i made it to f3 my vote would have gone to boknows like 90% of the time, in all scenarios except where the other person is martin in which cast it would have been more like 66%.

TS had the best record.
Martin was covered by Alison's trust tell, which is okay whatever.
Alison had a shitload of day 5 AtE that wouldn't make sense to put effort into faking if she were mafia.
Bo had nothing like any of that and just a nice record of votes against him

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:25 pm**

TL;DR mafia's a social game first and foremost.

BK did a good job, and definitely earned the win. <3 it's tough to go it alone like that and not crack

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:25 pm**

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:00 pm GG all, think I finally "get" TS.

Can we see the original rand @Sloonei?

The original mafia team in Game #1 was Martin, Syn, and 1612.

The game was re-randed because 2/3 of that team was absent.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:32 pm**

Sorry again.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:56 pm**

How was the setup compared to regular Mountainous setup btw?

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:20 pm**

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:25 pm
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:00 pm GG all, think I finally "get" TS.

Can we see the original rand @Sloonei?
The original mafia team in Game #1 was Martin, Syn, and 1612.

The game was re-randed because 2/3 of that team was absent.

Elaborating on this. These details have already been shared in spec chat, so if you saw the explanation there, this isn’t anything new:

I was ambivalent about running the game with 15 players instead of 14 from the beginning. In Game #1, town has one extra member and it made their task that much easier. I felt the setup was town-sided but not broken. To even things out, I decided that I could modkill a civilian who needed a replacement if the opportunity arose. That was going to be my plan if it was possible. But if all the townbees showed up, fair enough, we would play the game as 12 vs 3.

So then all the townbees did show up... but one of the mafia members did not (1612 still has not picked up his rolecard), and Syn told me he’d be needing a replacement within the first few hours of the game. Martin was literally alone in scum chat. And, considering that I already had misgivings about the setup being too town-sided, I decided that I would rather pull the plug before anyone could get too invested rather than scramble for subs just to have a mafia presence at all in the game.

I asked you all not to talk about your roles from the previous game because I did not want anyone to attempt to base any reads off of this information. It would have been fruitless anyway (I decided on that rule before reassigning any roles or even filling out the roster), but I figured it would all be gone and forgotten within the first 24 hours of the new game anyway, and the only thing it could do to this game would be to drag it down into messy angleshooting hijinks.

Thanks again to everyone for putting up with that. It’s the first time in my many many years of hosting that I’ve ever needed to do anything of the sort. It was obviously not ideal, but I thought this game went quite well once it actually got to happen. I hope you all had fun, as always.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:27 pm**

mansnicks wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:56 pm How was the setup compared to regular Mountainous setup btw?

I thought the desperado mechanic provided a slight boost to the town, but it was a bit understated: fingersplints was chosen (as I understand it) because she was widely town-read and would have been a nightkill target anyway under normal circumstances. It was basically just mountainous with one accelerated phase: either the town gets a free elimination, or the mafia team gets a bonus night kill on Day 3.

I liked it and thought it was a balanced setup. Any game that makes it F3 usually is. But (going back to the original inspiration to run this game) I feel like it would become very repetitive if it was used in a tournament setting.

The players might have different opinions about this though.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:40 pm**

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:27 pm
mansnicks wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:56 pm How was the setup compared to regular Mountainous setup btw?
I thought the desperado mechanic provided a slight boost to the town, but it was a bit understated: fingersplints was chosen (as I understand it) because she was widely town-read and would have been a nightkill target anyway under normal circumstances. It was basically just mountainous with one accelerated phase: either the town gets a free elimination, or the mafia team gets a bonus night kill on Day 3.

I liked it and thought it was a balanced setup. Any game that makes it F3 usually is. But (going back to the original inspiration to run this game) I feel like it would become very repetitive if it was used in a tournament setting.

The players might have different opinions about this though.

I think you're right that it gives slight boost for town, for whatever reason.
The MU test game Town won, when usually in regular Mountainous setup town wins about 20%-30% of time. Now 2 of 2 mountaindo games on MU have been won by Town somehow.

Interesting take on the repetitive part. Definitely true. But only like 15% of players get to play more than 1 game.

Me personally, I started to like the idea of low power role-flipless setup. The idea of Mafia possibly fake claiming, without a cc if lucky, seems interesting.

Posted: **Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:52 pm**

ts account wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:29 pm
BoKnows wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:26 pm [VOTE: ts account] aubergine
pretty 4head vote considering I was on a wolf all day yesterday

Do you still do the thing where you never vote mafia partners as mafia?

Posted: **Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:45 am**

GG everyone. Had a feeling nano and Kyle were both rown but didnt feel confident in this game to push my reads beyond the occasional "this feels wrong"

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:52 pm
ts account wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:29 pm
BoKnows wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:26 pm [VOTE: ts account] aubergine
pretty 4head vote considering I was on a wolf all day yesterday
Do you still do the thing where you never vote mafia partners as mafia?

I still play mafia optimally yes

Posted: **Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:49 am**

ts account wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:45 am GG everyone. Had a feeling nano and Kyle were both rown but didnt feel confident in this game to push my reads beyond the occasional "this feels wrong"
tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:52 pm
ts account wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:29 pm
BoKnows wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:26 pm [VOTE: ts account] aubergine
pretty 4head vote considering I was on a wolf all day yesterday
Do you still do the thing where you never vote mafia partners as mafia?
I still play mafia optimally yes

If u rand mafia wouldnt you be severely limited in your options and spew a lot of people as town after your death if you never vote mafia as mafia? Is that optimal play as scum?

Posted: **Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:52 am**

tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:49 am
ts account wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:45 am GG everyone. Had a feeling nano and Kyle were both rown but didnt feel confident in this game to push my reads beyond the occasional "this feels wrong"
tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:52 pm
ts account wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:29 pm
BoKnows wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:26 pm [VOTE: ts account] aubergine
pretty 4head vote considering I was on a wolf all day yesterday
Do you still do the thing where you never vote mafia partners as mafia?
I still play mafia optimally yes
If u rand mafia wouldnt you be severely limited in your options and spew a lot of people as town after your death if you never vote mafia as mafia? Is that optimal play as scum?

Cant spew anyone town if you never die

Posted: **Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:25 am**

@Kylemii It was not a logical fallacy, it was optimal play. I resolve people based on things that are hard to fake first, and I don't throw away structural elements in favor of "but he's acting so town though". And I gave town a chance to win F3 after your death anyway. Mafia might be a social game but trusting in the human element is just begging to get outplayed and I've won so many scum games by abusing that. You should know that, because "the human element" was what lost you GOC when a strict adherence to logic and structuralism would have won it.

Posted: **Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:27 am**

And Mikey that is a trust tell and you should knock it off because it ruins games.

Posted: **Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:37 am**

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:27 am And Mikey that is a trust tell and you should knock it off because it ruins games.

Posted: **Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:06 am**

I don't think I'd call not pushing or voting partners unless you have no choice gamebreaking

Like

Theres a legitimate and reasonable argument to be made that not bussing when you're scum is optimal, and afaik mikey doesn't take it to the extreme of refusing to vote a partner even if they're red checked or if it's clearly the optimal line, so its fine imo.

Basically I don't think the bar where mikey is willing to push a partner is nonexistent, its just a lot higher than most of ours. That's fine.

Posted: **Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:13 am**

Looks like this game is over, when did it end? My OCD needs you to change the title to Bee Mafia [ENDGAME] or something please.

Things seemed to be going so well at the time of my death, great job @BoKnows ! How did you do it?

Posted: **Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:17 am**

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:13 am Looks like this game is over, when did it end? My OCD needs you to change the title to Bee Mafia [ENDGAME] or something please. Things seemed to be going so well at the time of my death, great job @BoKnows ! How did you do it?

Thanks, LC! Well, Falcon and Quin set me up really well to deep wolf. All I had to do was not make it obvious that I was the last scum.

Posted: **Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:03 am**

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:06 am I don't think I'd call not pushing or voting partners unless you have no choice gamebreaking

Like

Theres a legitimate and reasonable argument to be made that not bussing when you're scum is optimal, and afaik mikey doesn't take it to the extreme of refusing to vote a partner even if they're red checked or if it's clearly the optimal line, so its fine imo.

Basically I don't think the bar where mikey is willing to push a partner is nonexistent, its just a lot higher than most of ours. That's fine.

I would be pretty annoyed if I was scum with Mikey and had to deal with the town suddenly getting 4 innocent childs after he flips

Posted: **Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:41 pm**

I voted for BoKnows in the poll. Hope I'm right.

The Syndicate

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