Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 2]
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:45 pm
Marmot... Marmot marmot marmot...
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
Marmot... Marmot marmot marmot...
[VOTE: Ender] aubergineSeanzie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:45 pmMarmot... Marmot marmot marmot...
Well sure, in theory I could edit it selectively, but people tend to notice if it says they voted for someone they didn't actually vote for (which, if I do mess anything up, please let me know).Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:38 pm My one concern with your spreadsheet Nate is that it is a tool that exists outside of the thread, and it is editable by you, which basically gives you an advantage to share information that you can change.
That said, it's fucking dynamite and I want it to stay!
I should add that I don't think you would do that, nor do I think it would actually present a problem here. It just feels a little against general game integrity to me, but that's probably a product of the community I play in. Especially since this is a normal thing for you where you play.NateTheLesser wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:49 pmWell sure, in theory I could edit it selectively, but people tend to notice if it says they voted for someone they didn't actually vote for (which, if I do mess anything up, please let me know).Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:38 pm My one concern with your spreadsheet Nate is that it is a tool that exists outside of the thread, and it is editable by you, which basically gives you an advantage to share information that you can change.
That said, it's fucking dynamite and I want it to stay!
Any thoughts or analysis based on the sheet will be made in the thread so it's on record etc etc.
link mac's message where he has a suspicion of meMarmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:15 pm Things Mac Said about People That Mac Said Things about
Alison - says Alison reeks of town for antoginizing Rondo. Later read her ISO and nothing stood out as scummy.
Boquise - has a bit of an altercation with Boq, then states a 99% certain townread
Creature - calls Creature quite townie. Later votes for Creature (I didn't find an explanation). Eventually calls Creature probably just town (thanks to input from sean)
DrWilgy - calls DrWilgy most suspicious player in the game aside from falcon. Maintains that suspicion later on
Dyslexicon - calls Dizzy town for playing in bystander mode. Eventually lists Dizzy in a POE (though most likely town in said POE)
EnderWiggin
fingersplints
JaggedJimmyJay - Do what Jay says until LYLO, then kill Jay if he's alive. Continues to list Jay as firmly a townread.
lucy - calls lucy town for being new and posting lots. Then had a long back and forth where he questioned why lucy was posting so much but not making reads. Later states a suspicion of her.
Marmot - His last post was to tunnel Marmot if falcon is a miss.
NateTheLesser - agreed with Nate's read on falcon.
RondoDimBuckle - consistent Rondo townreads. Eventually concedes that Rondo could be wolfing, but that he'll be killed at some point anyway.
Seanzie - called Sean town for openly engaging with Mac in a non-apprehensive way
I was reading Mac's ISO and came across an interaction you had with him talking about Creature, and thought it was a very good take, and most likely a townie take. I have a harder time seeing wolf!you bothering to stick your neck out for a player like Creature (who seems to get misread often).
So you know Creature is town? got it. Thanks.Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:24 pmI was reading Mac's ISO and came across an interaction you had with him talking about Creature, and thought it was a very good take, and most likely a townie take. I have a harder time seeing wolf!you bothering to stick your neck out for a player like Creature (who seems to get misread often).
lucy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:20 pmlink mac's message where he has a suspicion of meMarmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:15 pm Things Mac Said about People That Mac Said Things about
Alison - says Alison reeks of town for antoginizing Rondo. Later read her ISO and nothing stood out as scummy.
Boquise - has a bit of an altercation with Boq, then states a 99% certain townread
Creature - calls Creature quite townie. Later votes for Creature (I didn't find an explanation). Eventually calls Creature probably just town (thanks to input from sean)
DrWilgy - calls DrWilgy most suspicious player in the game aside from falcon. Maintains that suspicion later on
Dyslexicon - calls Dizzy town for playing in bystander mode. Eventually lists Dizzy in a POE (though most likely town in said POE)
EnderWiggin
fingersplints
JaggedJimmyJay - Do what Jay says until LYLO, then kill Jay if he's alive. Continues to list Jay as firmly a townread.
lucy - calls lucy town for being new and posting lots. Then had a long back and forth where he questioned why lucy was posting so much but not making reads. Later states a suspicion of her.
Marmot - His last post was to tunnel Marmot if falcon is a miss.
NateTheLesser - agreed with Nate's read on falcon.
RondoDimBuckle - consistent Rondo townreads. Eventually concedes that Rondo could be wolfing, but that he'll be killed at some point anyway.
Seanzie - called Sean town for openly engaging with Mac in a non-apprehensive way
In particular, Marmot does not seem to consider the possibility of me/Creature w/w here, almost as if he knows our alignments already and just needed a reason to back off me in hopes I would also back off in kind.Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:26 pmSo you know Creature is town? got it. Thanks.Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:24 pmI was reading Mac's ISO and came across an interaction you had with him talking about Creature, and thought it was a very good take, and most likely a townie take. I have a harder time seeing wolf!you bothering to stick your neck out for a player like Creature (who seems to get misread often).
where does he have dizzy in non town/null?
I thought about it, but the thought came and went and there was nothing to write about.Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:32 pmIn particular, Marmot does not seem to consider the possibility of me/Creature w/w here, almost as if he knows our alignments already and just needed a reason to back off me in hopes I would also back off in kind.Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:26 pmSo you know Creature is town? got it. Thanks.Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:24 pmI was reading Mac's ISO and came across an interaction you had with him talking about Creature, and thought it was a very good take, and most likely a townie take. I have a harder time seeing wolf!you bothering to stick your neck out for a player like Creature (who seems to get misread often).
Oooor....Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:33 pmI thought about it, but the thought came and went and there was nothing to write about.Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:32 pmIn particular, Marmot does not seem to consider the possibility of me/Creature w/w here, almost as if he knows our alignments already and just needed a reason to back off me in hopes I would also back off in kind.Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:26 pmSo you know Creature is town? got it. Thanks.Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:24 pmI was reading Mac's ISO and came across an interaction you had with him talking about Creature, and thought it was a very good take, and most likely a townie take. I have a harder time seeing wolf!you bothering to stick your neck out for a player like Creature (who seems to get misread often).
Alright alright, I admit it.Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:35 pmOooor....Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:33 pmI thought about it, but the thought came and went and there was nothing to write about.Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:32 pmIn particular, Marmot does not seem to consider the possibility of me/Creature w/w here, almost as if he knows our alignments already and just needed a reason to back off me in hopes I would also back off in kind.Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:26 pmSo you know Creature is town? got it. Thanks.Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:24 pmI was reading Mac's ISO and came across an interaction you had with him talking about Creature, and thought it was a very good take, and most likely a townie take. I have a harder time seeing wolf!you bothering to stick your neck out for a player like Creature (who seems to get misread often).
I believe you.Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:42 pmAlright alright, I admit it.Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:35 pmOooor....Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:33 pmI thought about it, but the thought came and went and there was nothing to write about.Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:32 pmIn particular, Marmot does not seem to consider the possibility of me/Creature w/w here, almost as if he knows our alignments already and just needed a reason to back off me in hopes I would also back off in kind.Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:26 pmSo you know Creature is town? got it. Thanks.Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:24 pmI was reading Mac's ISO and came across an interaction you had with him talking about Creature, and thought it was a very good take, and most likely a townie take. I have a harder time seeing wolf!you bothering to stick your neck out for a player like Creature (who seems to get misread often).
Spoiler: show
I can freeze it as-is and use screenshots for future days.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:01 pm Live google docs are probably best presented here in the form of screenshots. Appreciate the effort regardless
What do you mean?EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:04 am The funniest thing that has happened is that my statement about saving Seanzie from Marmot was true.
Marmot scumread meSeanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:08 amWhat do you mean?EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:04 am The funniest thing that has happened is that my statement about saving Seanzie from Marmot was true.
[VOTE: Marmot] aubergineMacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:04 pm the marmot wagon intrigues me...
I think it's a genuine c/w and will tunnel marmot if falcon is a miss
lel
I don't 100% agree with this (I have Dizzy town) but noting Mac's thoughts.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:23 pm I kinda think that there is a necessary auto period here.
Like there is a line and those below it have to all die before those above it because if the mafia are all above it the game is already over and we are wasting our time and that's very unlikely.
Line
Dyslexicon
Creature
Falcon
DrWilgy
For some reason I don't want to put Fingersplints below the line. I think Dyslexicon has the most chance of being town but I can't reasonably put him above it.
Okay so, thinking time.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:36 pmThank you.
One line of investigation that may be obvious but still doesn't tend to get the dedicated, systematic analysis it warrants is to individually assess the votes on the large mischop wagon of Day 1. We have a bunch of people who took part in that wagon who were all responsible for justifying their participation somehow. If we examine the full progression of each voter on their falcon reads we can try to determine with some reasonable degree of depth their sincerity.
I will likely do this myself, but two sets of eyes are better than one.
I think I can read his entrance and have been right three times in a row, including one where I correctly called him scum off his entrance. (I think that was GOC.)
It's back, in Pog screenshot form!NateTheLesser wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:35 pm Vote Spreadsheet
This is something I do on my homesite because we don't have any sort of vote automation (and Ender will recognize it because I brought screenshots of it to our champs qualifier). If you want to see what the vote count was at any given point in time, this will help.
- There's a tab for each Day at the bottom. All votes from the thread are listed in chronological order, and on the right side is a running vote count that shows what the vote count was after each vote.
- Due to the vagaries of The Poll being separate from the thread, I'm using the timestamp from the vote post if I could find one. I also took poll screenshots occasionally and reconciled the vote counts (there are notes on the timestamps of when this was done), so at those points the count is definitely accurate. There were at least a few votes that I could tell happened from the screenshots but didn't see a vote post for, so that's what the "??:??" votes are.
- Waterfall: This tab shows, for each player, everyone that they voted for each day. Player alignments are colored in after they die.
- Wagons: Shows the final vote count from each day’s vote, with player alignments colored in as the game goes on.
- If you open the document you'll be anonymous to anyone else in there, so don't worry about doxxing yourself.
- I obviously won't be updating this anymore after I die.
Link removed in edit by mod
(I think that'll actually embed here..? Unless the preview is lying to me. It seems like it loses some of the formatting and doesn't show notes, so this is the actual link if you want to open the document:
Link removed in edit by mod
One item of note to start with regarding JJJ's idea to look at the Falcon votes: everyone except Boq/Rondo/Wilgy voted for Falcon at some point. So unless that's exactly the team, there are wolf fingerprints on the Falcon push.
Nate will be allowed to share this document by screenshot, but we can't utilize a shared, editable document outside the thread. Apologies for having to edit this post, but I couldn't see a good way around that.
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:06 amOkay so, thinking time.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:36 pmThank you.
One line of investigation that may be obvious but still doesn't tend to get the dedicated, systematic analysis it warrants is to individually assess the votes on the large mischop wagon of Day 1. We have a bunch of people who took part in that wagon who were all responsible for justifying their participation somehow. If we examine the full progression of each voter on their falcon reads we can try to determine with some reasonable degree of depth their sincerity.
I will likely do this myself, but two sets of eyes are better than one.
Ender
Mac
Jay
Alison
Lucy
Nate
Fingersplints
Dizzy
I know I'm town
Mac flips town
I think I have a read on Dizzy town
3/8 townlock for me
I don't think there's all 3 wolves. I think 1-2.
Lucy I have a townish bend on rn.
I want to say Alison/Jay both town but I'm not 100% sure.
I'd say from that Nate/Finger needs my scrutiny most.
fingersplints wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:25 amTown falcon pretty much always talks about/suspects me early. Him noticing and commenting on a vote of me isn’t at all surprising to me if he were townMacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:52 amThis post is scummy for Falcon... these reads are agenda laden regardless of what Alison and Jay's alignment is (can be t/w or t/t).
words... that mean nothingfalcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:07 pmIt's how I'm reading your playstyle, your vibes.
t's the approach Alison has, her posting has a questioning solvey method, that doesn't feel like it's pushing an agenda. You have a similar feel, like you're working on solving the game.
Sean feels...stiff, awkward.
What really did it was his spree of just asking aimless questions of why people had the reads they had that I can already see he has no intent in following up on lol.
eg., town Falcon doesn't give a shit about why EnderWiggin would vote Fingersplints lol.
fingersplints wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:27 pmJust a vibe based on past experiences and general tone in posts in this game.NateTheLesser wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:57 pm👍fingersplints wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:00 amYesNateTheLesser wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:31 amHave you played with scum!Falcon?fingersplints wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:13 amCan anyone vouch for Mac never being wrong as town about falcon?MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:00 amyeah but like, as town I'm never wrong on you so you shouldn't think I'm town lolfalcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:02 am
67% town, I don't think scum Mac would push my ML so hard. I'd say his gut feel is real, it's just wrong.
Gth I’d say I’m townleaning mac, and scumleaning falcon so considering following that vote but I have reservations as I always think falcon is scum and have been wrong
Are you scumleaning Falcon due to that past experience, or what's feeding that scumlean?
It’s not great and completely vague, so I apologise to everyone and falcon. I wish I had more to go off of, but day 1 is rough
I'm good with a vote here for now.fingersplints wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:04 pm I’m going to try and be around still for the rest of the EOD but I’m already getting tired.
We are currently tied falcon vs creature. If it stays like that I support a falcon vote more than a creature vote. I think he is the more suspicious of the two, and I think that we can form some decent connections with his flip given a lot of folks have given opinions or had interactions with him. More than anything though I don’t want it to end in the tie option. Again I’ll try to stay up
Minor correction: I think Mac was saying Alison's poking at Rondo reeks, as in stinks. At the time he seemed to think she was just doing it to get a reaction and clog the thread.Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:15 pm Things Mac Said about People That Mac Said Things about
Alison - says Alison reeks of town for antoginizing Rondo. Later read her ISO and nothing stood out as scummy.
Boquise - has a bit of an altercation with Boq, then states a 99% certain townread
Creature - calls Creature quite townie. Later votes for Creature (I didn't find an explanation). Eventually calls Creature probably just town (thanks to input from sean)
DrWilgy - calls DrWilgy most suspicious player in the game aside from falcon. Maintains that suspicion later on
Dyslexicon - calls Dizzy town for playing in bystander mode. Eventually lists Dizzy in a POE (though most likely town in said POE)
EnderWiggin
fingersplints
JaggedJimmyJay - Do what Jay says until LYLO, then kill Jay if he's alive. Continues to list Jay as firmly a townread.
lucy - calls lucy town for being new and posting lots. Then had a long back and forth where he questioned why lucy was posting so much but not making reads. Later states a suspicion of her.
Marmot - His last post was to tunnel Marmot if falcon is a miss.
NateTheLesser - agreed with Nate's read on falcon.
RondoDimBuckle - consistent Rondo townreads. Eventually concedes that Rondo could be wolfing, but that he'll be killed at some point anyway.
Seanzie - called Sean town for openly engaging with Mac in a non-apprehensive way