The Syndicate

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:00 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:56 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:45 pm More than 2 flipped villagers had Wiml as town.
I said yday I can lose to Wiml but I don't agree to lose to Wilgy and since then Wilgy started to analyze posts and votes.
Maybe is a coincidence, maybe not but doesn't give me confidence

Ah, my bad. Should've I remained slanky upon the game shifting so much?

No, you should care before of that

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:02 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:01 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:58 pm Wilgy, why isn't voting Ex today and then then having Roxy vote me tomorrow a viable theoretical gameplan for you as a wolf fypov? (Or voting me today and having Roxy vote Ex).

Because Roxy doesn't trust me.

It's very much a meta thing. Roxy is VERY hesitant to trust me, especially after Cyberpunk (which she's referenced prior). If you/me/Roxy end up in f3 and I'm wolf I'm pretty sure Roxy throws me overboard more often than not.

I say this with about 60-70% confidence. More than enough for me to be wary of a Roxy f3.

Regarding this newfound confidence in me. I'm not sure about it. It's really easy to accept it as townie mind meld, but the paranoia in me is like 'it's too easy.'

She literally said earlier that you're 100% Town, lol

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:02 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:59 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:57 am Pretty sure I 100% NK Ex or Roxy. My preferred f3 would always be Abigail/Me/Michelle, Abigail/Me/Roxy, Abigail/Me/You in that order of preference I think.

@Wiml this was where I'd put myself in W Wilgy's shoes.

I get that but why those F3s and not Wilgy/Roxy/Wiml, Wilgy/Roxy/Ex or something along those lines?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:01 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:58 pm Wilgy, why isn't voting Ex today and then then having Roxy vote me tomorrow a viable theoretical gameplan for you as a wolf fypov? (Or voting me today and having Roxy vote Ex).

Because Roxy doesn't trust me.

It's very much a meta thing. Roxy is VERY hesitant to trust me, especially after Cyberpunk (which she's referenced prior). If you/me/Roxy end up in f3 and I'm wolf I'm pretty sure Roxy throws me overboard more often than not.

I say this with about 60-70% confidence. More than enough for me to be wary of a Roxy f3.

Regarding this newfound confidence in me. I'm not sure about it. It's really easy to accept it as townie mind meld, but the paranoia in me is like 'it's too easy.'

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:03 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:00 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:56 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:45 pm More than 2 flipped villagers had Wiml as town.
I said yday I can lose to Wiml but I don't agree to lose to Wilgy and since then Wilgy started to analyze posts and votes.
Maybe is a coincidence, maybe not but doesn't give me confidence

Ah, my bad. Should've I remained slanky upon the game shifting so much?

No, you should care before of that

I did care. I went through a lul in gameplay because I wanted to focus on chopping the unknown members of PoE. Don't discount my discussions and additions early game while I was pursuing a passive gameplan until said passive gameplan doesn't work anymore.

If anything it should be non alignment indicative, and I don't know why you'd say it's suspicious. Both T Wilgy AND W Wilgy benefit from playing the game more when they did.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:02 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:01 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:58 pm Wilgy, why isn't voting Ex today and then then having Roxy vote me tomorrow a viable theoretical gameplan for you as a wolf fypov? (Or voting me today and having Roxy vote Ex).

Because Roxy doesn't trust me.

It's very much a meta thing. Roxy is VERY hesitant to trust me, especially after Cyberpunk (which she's referenced prior). If you/me/Roxy end up in f3 and I'm wolf I'm pretty sure Roxy throws me overboard more often than not.

I say this with about 60-70% confidence. More than enough for me to be wary of a Roxy f3.

Regarding this newfound confidence in me. I'm not sure about it. It's really easy to accept it as townie mind meld, but the paranoia in me is like 'it's too easy.'

She literally said earlier that you're 100% Town, lol

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:07 pm Rainbows are somewhat moot.

PoE is between Wiml and Ex.

This makes sense as game winning.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:06 pm I'm going to the gym rn so I'll be busy for a couple hours.

I'd like to ask everyone for their rainbow lists and comments if possible. I'll try to join in too tonight still.

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:06 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:03 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:00 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:56 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:45 pm More than 2 flipped villagers had Wiml as town.
I said yday I can lose to Wiml but I don't agree to lose to Wilgy and since then Wilgy started to analyze posts and votes.
Maybe is a coincidence, maybe not but doesn't give me confidence

Ah, my bad. Should've I remained slanky upon the game shifting so much?

No, you should care before of that

I did care. I went through a lul in gameplay because I wanted to focus on chopping the unknown members of PoE. Don't discount my discussions and additions early game while I was pursuing a passive gameplan until said passive gameplan doesn't work anymore.

If anything it should be non alignment indicative, and I don't know why you'd say it's suspicious. Both T Wilgy AND W Wilgy benefit from playing the game more when they did.

Please link me a town game where you were so active solving

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:10 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:07 pm Rainbows are somewhat moot.

PoE is between Wiml and Ex.

This makes sense as game winning.

Who's your third between the other two?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:07 pm Rainbows are somewhat moot.

PoE is between Wiml and Ex.

This makes sense as game winning.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Aug 07, 2023 12:54 pm Last wolf just has to be in the mid pol when LC was 3/3 with Abigail right?
```
Abigail
Voters: Epignosis, Michelle, Kate
```

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:15 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:07 pm Rainbows are somewhat moot.

PoE is between Wiml and Ex.

This makes sense as game winning.

Wiml was one of the main people pushing for an early Lime lynch, which they kept up throughout the day while trying to make pairings as to potential scumbud teams.

I'm aware that my previous slot doesn't look too good due to inactivity, but if I recall correctly Roxy vouched that my slot is having some issues IRL and that's why they had to sub out. As my main argument, Kate wouldn't have been able to keep up with the thread as well, and yet the night kills seem to be done by someone who's been keeping up with the game. The previous days lynches are also clearly manipulated by someone who's was pushing the Kate/Epi/Quin PoE who I am fully aware to be full town by now.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:16 pm I would appreciate if you made a rainbow's list still, Wigly

They're a good way of visualizing someone's reads

Kate wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:59 pm Let me guess, without reading, princess Abigail has used ATE to get yall to move off her?

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 8:40 pm So it must be Quin, diet Pepsi and poor poor Dr wolfy.

*solved*

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:20 pm If there's two posts where I'm like, 'this is w kate' it's these two.

Kate wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:59 pm Let me guess, without reading, princess Abigail has used ATE to get yall to move off her?

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 8:40 pm So it must be Quin, diet Pepsi and poor poor Dr wolfy.

*solved*

But Kate's last two posts really get me.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:15 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:07 pm Rainbows are somewhat moot.

PoE is between Wiml and Ex.

This makes sense as game winning.

Wiml was one of the main people pushing for an early Lime lynch, which they kept up throughout the day while trying to make pairings as to potential scumbud teams.

I'm aware that my previous slot doesn't look too good due to inactivity, but if I recall correctly Roxy vouched that my slot is having some issues IRL and that's why they had to sub out. As my main argument, Kate wouldn't have been able to keep up with the thread as well, and yet the night kills seem to be done by someone who's been keeping up with the game. The previous days lynches are also clearly manipulated by someone who's was pushing the Kate/Epi/Quin PoE who I am fully aware to be full town by now.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:20 pm If there's two posts where I'm like, 'this is w kate' it's these two.

Kate wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:59 pm Let me guess, without reading, princess Abigail has used ATE to get yall to move off her?

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 8:40 pm So it must be Quin, diet Pepsi and poor poor Dr wolfy.

*solved*

But Kate's last two posts really get me.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:27 pm

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.

Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.

Is it Wiml or Michelle?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:27 pm

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.

Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.

Is it Wiml or Michelle?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:17 pm Thinking about this still.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Aug 07, 2023 12:54 pm Last wolf just has to be in the mid pol when LC was 3/3 with Abigail right?
```
Abigail
Voters: Epignosis, Michelle, Kate
```

Maybe Michelle 3rd if not Kate?

Like the wolf has to be here still yes? I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise. If there was a bus by Wiml, do I just accept my loss to it?

Further Falc/JJJ/Abigail are all NKs that come out of Kate/Ex.

Blah, idk if I'm to trust my gut here.

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:41 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:17 pm Thinking about this still.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Aug 07, 2023 12:54 pm Last wolf just has to be in the mid pol when LC was 3/3 with Abigail right?
```
Abigail
Voters: Epignosis, Michelle, Kate
```

Maybe Michelle 3rd if not Kate?

Like the wolf has to be here still yes? I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise. If there was a bus by Wiml, do I just accept my loss to it?

Further Falc/JJJ/Abigail are all NKs that come out of Kate/Ex.

Blah, idk if I'm to trust my gut here.

Brad couldn’t be saved, never, with that random pop in the thread and doing nothing.
I would let my vote on him if I knew he was a wolf.
Instead hoping for a miracle, bussing would be the best course to gain town credit.
Also I wouldn't kill Falcon N1, I would always kill Jay.
Jay is a real god of mafia. He can't be kept alive except mafia hope he can be mischopped somehow. I couldn’t push Jay so I would N1ed him.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:34 pm Also I'd like to point out that sticking out to the absurd Quin/Epi/Kate PoE is a more complex case of the Monty Hall problem even from just a statistical point of view. One of the worst plays that can be done here is insisting on my slot.

If we factor in other elements beyond just statistical reasoning, it's already a red flag how scum likely kept pushing the order to have the most inactive slot last (Kate's) probably in hopes not for her to sub out but to be either modkilled or lynched without resistance.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:34 pm Also I'd like to point out that sticking out to the absurd Quin/Epi/Kate PoE is a more complex case of the Monty Hall problem even from just a statistical point of view. One of the worst plays that can be done here is insisting on my slot.

If we factor in other elements beyond just statistical reasoning, it's already a red flag how scum likely kept pushing the order to have the most inactive slot last (Kate's) probably in hopes not for her to sub out but to be either modkilled or lynched without resistance.

And as I said, the kills are incompatible with Kate who was too busy to keep up with the game. I'm not sure what else to say without recurring to meta elements: I don't shoot Abgail here as scum, I don't stay up til 3AM doing a catch up of like 1500 as scum, and I don't prod too many people as scum.

I'm personally feeling a lot more into doing Roxy > Wilgy for the next phases, but it might be optimal to do Wilgy > Roxy considering people have been discussing his slot more.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:37 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:27 pm

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.

Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.

Is it Wiml or Michelle?

I just don't think it's any of them? Wiml is very slightly more towny imo, but honestly if it's any of them they deserve to win imo and I'll kneel down and tell the rest of town I'm sorry for screwing up.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:39 pm I find a bit annoying that both the ones I'm scumreading are self proclaimed "guts/vibes players" because it's making me slightly insecure that their lack of stuff I'm expecting is due a difference in playstyle.

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:40 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:27 pm

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.

Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.

Is it Wiml or Michelle?

Do you think Michelle doesn't bus (or really try to save) Lime late into D1 when he's actively lolcatting despite obviously knowing she would need to win F3? And that she is fine with him lolcatting instead of distancing for the cred or trying to live D1?

And that she opens up the PoE to push me and remove Epi when she's already winning if she pushes the status quo? Especially when that push on me is based on being annoyed at a hammer that she didn't really have a reason to be frustrated at as a wolf.

And that Lime goes out of his way to defend her early when she's wagoned even though Michelle has a reputation for being easy to read (regardless of if that reputation us actually correct or not)?

I realise this comes off as a bit accusatory but I mean this genuinely because I think she has several strong positives in her favour.

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:41 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:17 pm Thinking about this still.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Aug 07, 2023 12:54 pm Last wolf just has to be in the mid pol when LC was 3/3 with Abigail right?
```
Abigail
Voters: Epignosis, Michelle, Kate
```

Maybe Michelle 3rd if not Kate?

Like the wolf has to be here still yes? I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise. If there was a bus by Wiml, do I just accept my loss to it?

Further Falc/JJJ/Abigail are all NKs that come out of Kate/Ex.

Blah, idk if I'm to trust my gut here.

Brad couldn’t be saved, never, with that random pop in the thread and doing nothing.
I would let my vote on him if I knew he was a wolf.
Instead hoping for a miracle, bussing would be the best course to gain town credit.
Also I wouldn't kill Falcon N1, I would always kill Jay.
Jay is a real god of mafia. He can't be kept alive except mafia hope he can be mischopped somehow. I couldn’t push Jay so I would N1ed him.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:47 pm

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:39 pm I find a bit annoying that both the ones I'm scumreading are self proclaimed "guts/vibes players" because it's making me slightly insecure that their lack of stuff I'm expecting is due a difference in playstyle.

I've played by gut, nka, vca, and meta. Why are you so focused upon my gut reads?

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:43 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:41 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:17 pm Thinking about this still.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Aug 07, 2023 12:54 pm Last wolf just has to be in the mid pol when LC was 3/3 with Abigail right?
```
Abigail
Voters: Epignosis, Michelle, Kate
```

Maybe Michelle 3rd if not Kate?

Like the wolf has to be here still yes? I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise. If there was a bus by Wiml, do I just accept my loss to it?

Further Falc/JJJ/Abigail are all NKs that come out of Kate/Ex.

Blah, idk if I'm to trust my gut here.

Brad couldn’t be saved, never, with that random pop in the thread and doing nothing.
I would let my vote on him if I knew he was a wolf.
Instead hoping for a miracle, bussing would be the best course to gain town credit.
Also I wouldn't kill Falcon N1, I would always kill Jay.
Jay is a real god of mafia. He can't be kept alive except mafia hope he can be mischopped somehow. I couldn’t push Jay so I would N1ed him.

How late/early would you bus them as wolf?

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:52 pm If we lose because of Wiml/ Michelle being wolf then it is what it is. As it was before me joining the path people were discussing was Epi+me+you (Wilgy) so it would result in a loss anyway.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:47 pm

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:39 pm I find a bit annoying that both the ones I'm scumreading are self proclaimed "guts/vibes players" because it's making me slightly insecure that their lack of stuff I'm expecting is due a difference in playstyle.

I've played by gut, nka, vca, and meta. Why are you so focused upon my gut reads?

I'm not, I appreciate your different approaches, I just had the impression you had self described yourself as a player that focused more on gut feeling? I might be misremembering.

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:57 pm It's midnight for me, I can't keep my eyes open, I will try to reread as much as possible in the morning.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:56 pm idk who tutuu is

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:00 pm would you say you're trying to mimic any of the living players in this current one, Wilgy?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:02 pm

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:00 pm would you say you're trying to mimic any of the living players in this current one, Wilgy?

Nope.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:50 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:40 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:27 pm

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.

Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.

Is it Wiml or Michelle?

Do you think Michelle doesn't bus (or really try to save) Lime late into D1 when he's actively lolcatting despite obviously knowing she would need to win F3? And that she is fine with him lolcatting instead of distancing for the cred or trying to live D1?

And that she opens up the PoE to push me and remove Epi when she's already winning if she pushes the status quo? Especially when that push on me is based on being annoyed at a hammer that she didn't really have a reason to be frustrated at as a wolf.

And that Lime goes out of his way to defend her early when she's wagoned even though Michelle has a reputation for being easy to read (regardless of if that reputation us actually correct or not)?

I realise this comes off as a bit accusatory but I mean this genuinely because I think she has several strong positives in her favour.

Unknown. I don't know how Michelle approaches teammates. That's a meta call I don't have the data for, nor am I conscious of Michelle's posture during the LC wagon's formation of that 3/3 split. I can review, but that'd have to be later.

I agree with the 2nd point. I don't see Michelle forcing the PoE open based on how seemingly tight it was come Quin yeet. The only thing that'd lead to that would be W Michelle thinking they needed to to hold appearances? But that is unlikely.

I can see W Lime defending a teammate like that tbh.

I agree.

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:05 pm Thanks DrW!

Ex, did you link me the games I asked for? Sorry if you did and I didn't notice. I would like to check something in the morning.

@Wiml please link me please your last 3 scum games and town games