The Syndicate

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 1:23 pm Vote: Creature

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:36 pm

LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:31 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:17 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:09 pm Also town has 4 flipped dead power roles so far. And Manny is claiming to be a 5th. Is becomes increasingly more likely that any additional power we spot acting is not town but instead anti-town.

That's a good point.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:12 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:07 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:05 pm Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie. At this point there are mafia roles and third party roles that I believe should target like that. I think we shoul eliminate falcon and that they should be claiming today.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

I'm not in the mental zone to immediately understand "Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie", can you calrify that please?

Sure. Town's power roles are listed and there are only a few that target that falcon could be. I find stuff like the bodyguard would be questionable to use on Seanzie night 1 when they were the counter to the wagon.

But it was Manny that called out falcon, right? Are they both bad, and it was a bussing kind of ploy?

If both were wolves, even if Manny ends up "bussing" a partner like that, Manny's survival would out him sooner rather than later. I also don't think that Manny would go for such a strategy when already under scrutiny/in the upper part of the POE for many players unless the wolf team was in an awfully losing spot - which it doesn't look like at all.

I could theoretically see a 3P Manny making such a move, but that requires a poisoner world (with no poisons out so far) - but I think you see the issues that crop up immediately in such a scenario.

I'm pretty sure Manny's just town here and Falcon... needs to claim, fast. And then we decide from there whether we believe that claim or not.

Jack had a good point. Falcon, IF he comes back, will certainly claim one of the four Town roles available, and it will either be true, or it will be a fakeclaim.

What do we really need to hear from him?

I mean, it's ideal if he just comes back sooner than later, but what do we need to know?

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:46 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 12:12 pm

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:29 am There's gotta be at least like 2 in the section above Nook and I.

Do we have enough resources?

And why doesn't this site use vigs when we need them?

1. The Syndicate has many games with vigilantes, and no two games are the same. This question would make more sense in regards to a specific game, as opposed to the whole site.

2. We do have a (potential) vig. Great Khans.

I refuse to believe the vig hasn’t acted yet. I refuse

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:47 pm Like, if I was the doctor, I'd have probably targeted Seanzie.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 2:51 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:47 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:44 pm (Coming from the guy that comes out today making accusations and leading the thread)

Oh, are you leading the thread?

Actual footage of Scotty.



This has been a joke for Brad.

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:47 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 1:23 pm Vote: Creature

Holy shit I forgot creature was playing.

He can definitely be wolf grrr

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:47 pm On the brightside atleast i can count on Lan reading me correctly

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:49 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 2:51 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:47 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:44 pm (Coming from the guy that comes out today making accusations and leading the thread)

Oh, are you leading the thread?

Actual footage of Scotty.



This has been a joke for Brad.

I’m more the kid on the right, not Aaron Rodgers

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:47 pm If we yeet falcon, and he's bad, then it looks good for Manny being Town. The possibility still exists that Manny is Caesar's Legion, and is throwing falcon under the bus for very good cred. Falcon's current absence would support the hypothesis that he said something like "bus me guys, I don't have time for this game" or something. Then, Manny would seem to be on a clock, as a 'Confirmed Town', and we'd get more suspicious as the game went on. That plan can work, and might have looked like the better option to Manny, who was concerned for his life on that Day. "Wolves aren't killing me because I'm vanilla now and they want you to yeet me."

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:02 pm "

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:49 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:47 pm Like, if I was the doctor, I'd have probably targeted Seanzie.

Sorry i dont see it at all lol, i'd never doc the cw d1 specially with the actual yeet d1 being a town PR.
If i had to guess i'd prolly try doc'ing either Mich or Lan cuz they were the two people with the most tr's in thread i think

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:47 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 1:23 pm Vote: Creature

Holy shit I forgot creature was playing.

He can definitely be wolf grrr

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:53 pm But seriously. I went through all the votes for Seanzie. There was nothing there and the Seanzie wagon fell apart as I asked people wtf they were doing. Iirc, the only votes that remained on Seanzie eod1 were from people who just didn't come back to the thread. *checks* Yep. Falcon, Epi, Mac. Hardly an actual counterwagon.

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:53 pm Realistically i should switch my vote to Falcon cuz i think him!w is more likely than mac!w even though i still think both are wolves, but that would require unvoting mac and i dont wanna

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:51 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:47 pm If we yeet falcon, and he's bad, then it looks good for Manny being Town. The possibility still exists that Manny is Caesar's Legion, and is throwing falcon under the bus for very good cred. Falcon's current absence would support the hypothesis that he said something like "bus me guys, I don't have time for this game" or something. Then, Manny would seem to be on a clock, as a 'Confirmed Town', and we'd get more suspicious as the game went on. That plan can work, and might have looked like the better option to Manny, who was concerned for his life on that Day. "Wolves aren't killing me because I'm vanilla now and they want you to yeet me."

Bussing by claiming PR makes no sense to endgame because i'd be heavily scumread for not dying when and if Falcon flips wolf, and bussing like that even makes more sense when u take into account i... wasnt trying to buss him i thougth him being PR made him town yday due to targetting seanzie lol.

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:54 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:53 pm But seriously. I went through all the votes for Seanzie. There was nothing there and the Seanzie wagon fell apart as I asked people wtf they were doing. Iirc, the only votes that remained on Seanzie eod1 were from people who just didn't come back to the thread. *checks* Yep. Falcon, Epi, Mac. Hardly an actual counterwagon.

The votes existed, therefore as a wolf i would consider the votes existing on laters day again and it would make me want to not kill Seanzie there.
I also have no clue about how good of a player he is, pretty sure this is the first time i play with them.

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:55 pm but actually if i kill falcon and he flips wolf i have higher chances of getting shot and then solving mac is not my problem hmmm

LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:31 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:17 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:09 pm Also town has 4 flipped dead power roles so far. And Manny is claiming to be a 5th. Is becomes increasingly more likely that any additional power we spot acting is not town but instead anti-town.

That's a good point.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:12 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:07 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:05 pm Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie. At this point there are mafia roles and third party roles that I believe should target like that. I think we shoul eliminate falcon and that they should be claiming today.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

I'm not in the mental zone to immediately understand "Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie", can you calrify that please?

Sure. Town's power roles are listed and there are only a few that target that falcon could be. I find stuff like the bodyguard would be questionable to use on Seanzie night 1 when they were the counter to the wagon.

But it was Manny that called out falcon, right? Are they both bad, and it was a bussing kind of ploy?

If both were wolves, even if Manny ends up "bussing" a partner like that, Manny's survival would out him sooner rather than later. I also don't think that Manny would go for such a strategy when already under scrutiny/in the upper part of the POE for many players unless the wolf team was in an awfully losing spot - which it doesn't look like at all.

I could theoretically see a 3P Manny making such a move, but that requires a poisoner world (with no poisons out so far) - but I think you see the issues that crop up immediately in such a scenario.

I'm pretty sure Manny's just town here and Falcon... needs to claim, fast. And then we decide from there whether we believe that claim or not.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:56 pm The wolves killed Seanzie. Ergo I am right and you are wrong.

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:56 pm The downside of this is the world of 3P Falcon which means i would still be alive tomorrow and worse off i think it'd be lylo and i would need to properly thunderdome mac zzz.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:57 pm Ugh I didn't even really consider 3P Falcon worlds.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:31 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:25 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:16 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:39 pm One kill. Hmm. That points to a not SK or poisoner, as there aren’t a lot of protects in this game. Mr house is probably an arsonist. That’s an annoying role who can hide anywhere so I guess it’s gonna be hard pressed to 3p hunt this game.

Ok, I see manny claims to have watched falcon visit Seanzie. The weirdest part to me is how only falcon seemed to have visited Seanzie, the counter wagon. Literally blows my mind. But I believe Manny’s claim, and falcon could literally be any of the roles. He could be the mafia poisoner, which would explain Seanzie’s death. Except mafia also get a factional kill so that doesn’t seem likely.

I feel like this is a set up to get Lime Coke yeeted. I don’t feel like falling on those obvious spikes

[VOTE: dunnstral] aubergine let’s start here again.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 11:05 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:46 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:39 pm One kill. Hmm. That points to a not SK or poisoner, as there aren’t a lot of protects in this game. Mr house is probably an arsonist. That’s an annoying role who can hide anywhere so I guess it’s gonna be hard pressed to 3p hunt this game.

Ok, I see manny claims to have watched falcon visit Seanzie. The weirdest part to me is how only falcon seemed to have visited Seanzie, the counter wagon. Literally blows my mind. But I believe Manny’s claim, and falcon could literally be any of the roles. He could be the mafia poisoner, which would explain Seanzie’s death. Except mafia also get a factional kill so that doesn’t seem likely.

I feel like this is a set up to get Lime Coke yeeted. I don’t feel like falling on those obvious spikes

[VOTE: dunnstral] aubergine let’s start here again.

Third sentence about Lime Coke makes no sense. And voting me after makes no sense either.

Lime and Seanzie had a spat, Lime Coke still had him as a suspect, and Seanzie had Lime as a top suspect for almost the whole game. How does that not make sense?

Voting you is exclusive of the rest of my post, I’ll give you that

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:17 am Mac with a lot of good points. I just want to townread that.

Also enlightening that at this point, we *should* be looking at the top posters and besides my spam ass, I’m surprised to see Lime Coke there.

I mean, pull my leg [VOTE: Lime Coke] aubergine

Eyebrow raising progression

Don’t raise em too long, they’ll get stuck.

I’m chaotic good. Help me get to at least neutral good

I'm taking this as a claim.

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:57 pm

LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:31 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:17 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:09 pm Also town has 4 flipped dead power roles so far. And Manny is claiming to be a 5th. Is becomes increasingly more likely that any additional power we spot acting is not town but instead anti-town.

That's a good point.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:12 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:07 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:05 pm Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie. At this point there are mafia roles and third party roles that I believe should target like that. I think we shoul eliminate falcon and that they should be claiming today.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

I'm not in the mental zone to immediately understand "Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie", can you calrify that please?

Sure. Town's power roles are listed and there are only a few that target that falcon could be. I find stuff like the bodyguard would be questionable to use on Seanzie night 1 when they were the counter to the wagon.

But it was Manny that called out falcon, right? Are they both bad, and it was a bussing kind of ploy?

If both were wolves, even if Manny ends up "bussing" a partner like that, Manny's survival would out him sooner rather than later. I also don't think that Manny would go for such a strategy when already under scrutiny/in the upper part of the POE for many players unless the wolf team was in an awfully losing spot - which it doesn't look like at all.

I could theoretically see a 3P Manny making such a move, but that requires a poisoner world (with no poisons out so far) - but I think you see the issues that crop up immediately in such a scenario.

I'm pretty sure Manny's just town here and Falcon... needs to claim, fast. And then we decide from there whether we believe that claim or not.

This is presuming we would know if someone dies of poisoning.

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:57 pm

LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:31 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:17 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:09 pm Also town has 4 flipped dead power roles so far. And Manny is claiming to be a 5th. Is becomes increasingly more likely that any additional power we spot acting is not town but instead anti-town.

That's a good point.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:12 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:07 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:05 pm Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie. At this point there are mafia roles and third party roles that I believe should target like that. I think we shoul eliminate falcon and that they should be claiming today.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

I'm not in the mental zone to immediately understand "Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie", can you calrify that please?

Sure. Town's power roles are listed and there are only a few that target that falcon could be. I find stuff like the bodyguard would be questionable to use on Seanzie night 1 when they were the counter to the wagon.

But it was Manny that called out falcon, right? Are they both bad, and it was a bussing kind of ploy?

If both were wolves, even if Manny ends up "bussing" a partner like that, Manny's survival would out him sooner rather than later. I also don't think that Manny would go for such a strategy when already under scrutiny/in the upper part of the POE for many players unless the wolf team was in an awfully losing spot - which it doesn't look like at all.

I could theoretically see a 3P Manny making such a move, but that requires a poisoner world (with no poisons out so far) - but I think you see the issues that crop up immediately in such a scenario.

I'm pretty sure Manny's just town here and Falcon... needs to claim, fast. And then we decide from there whether we believe that claim or not.

This is presuming we would know if someone dies of poisoning.

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:01 pm If you dont have a townread on LanMisa at this stage of this game there's no helping u.
He's the towniest mf in the thread.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:01 pm At least we know Manny isn't 3P because wtf would the serial killer claim made up targets for Falcon and why would the protag claim town watcher and increase the chance of being blocked or nightkilled?

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:01 pm If you dont have a townread on LanMisa at this stage of this game there's no helping u.
He's the towniest mf in the thread.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:40 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:35 pm

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:32 am

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:31 am

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:30 am Manny what'd you do for Night 2?

check who visits falcon, got no result so i assume i was rb'd.

.... why Falcon?

That…makes perfect sense to me.

Everything manny is doing makes perfect sense from a logical perspective.

Here’s my thinking-

The anti manny brigade is bringing the heat today to discredit manny. Lime/mac/dunn are full on my wolf team atm

Dunn is such a strong logistician- odds are that both falcon and manny are not both PRs, as we would have 7 of the remaining town PRs including them. Improbable, but not conclusive. So going after falcon here is a play that makes sense. Could be right.

Yeah, it made sense. Idk if I bought it but it made sense....until Manny came out with a scumread on Falcon with zero posts from Falcon between "I'm tracking this player because I think they're an outted town PR" to "75% chance Falcon is a wolf in any possible world."

Maybe there's just like a missing progression?

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:02 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:01 pm At least we know Manny isn't 3P because wtf would the serial killer claim made up targets for Falcon and why would the protag claim town watcher and increase the chance of being blocked or nightkilled?

This will make it all the more sweeter when i win as an arsonist in couple days :hmmyes:

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:01 pm At least we know Manny isn't 3P because wtf would the serial killer claim made up targets for Falcon and why would the protag claim town watcher and increase the chance of being blocked or nightkilled?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:02 pm

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:01 pm If you dont have a townread on LanMisa at this stage of this game there's no helping u.
He's the towniest mf in the thread.

LanMisa is a BOY?

Spoiler: show

that's another joke ya'll

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:03 pm Because if he doesn’t have a lot of heat of going over, this is pretty unlikely as wolf behavior imo. If he had heat, I can see this as a play to buy time.

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:03 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:40 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:35 pm

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:32 am

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:31 am

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:30 am Manny what'd you do for Night 2?

check who visits falcon, got no result so i assume i was rb'd.

.... why Falcon?

That…makes perfect sense to me.

Everything manny is doing makes perfect sense from a logical perspective.

Here’s my thinking-

The anti manny brigade is bringing the heat today to discredit manny. Lime/mac/dunn are full on my wolf team atm

Dunn is such a strong logistician- odds are that both falcon and manny are not both PRs, as we would have 7 of the remaining town PRs including them. Improbable, but not conclusive. So going after falcon here is a play that makes sense. Could be right.

Yeah, it made sense. Idk if I bought it but it made sense....until Manny came out with a scumread on Falcon with zero posts from Falcon between "I'm tracking this player because I think they're an outted town PR" to "75% chance Falcon is a wolf in any possible world."

Maybe there's just like a missing progression?

How much pressure was on manny when he made this claim? I can’t get a sense for it in the moment in my reread.

Because if he doesn’t have a lot of heat of going over, this is pretty unlikely as wolf behavior imo. If he had heat, I can see this as a play to buy time.

And his role does seem exactly as functional as the legions of Caesar’s pizza

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:47 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:40 pm Yeah, it made sense. Idk if I bought it but it made sense....until Manny came out with a scumread on Falcon with zero posts from Falcon between "I'm tracking this player because I think they're an outted town PR" to "75% chance Falcon is a wolf in any possible world."

I watched it overnight because i thougth there were chances of him being a town PR, i stopped thinking that when i saw that both him and me survived the night.
Him not being in my A) and B) team is just cuz i forgot temporarily he existed

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:04 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:03 pm Because if he doesn’t have a lot of heat of going over, this is pretty unlikely as wolf behavior imo. If he had heat, I can see this as a play to buy time.

Mac had voted me and Chels had said she might consider voting me EoD, + some other random scumreads.
I put the odds of me dying WITHOUT claiming at like 20-30%? assuming i didnt come back for EoD which i prolly would've as wolf.

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:05 pm ….you forgot he existed? After targeting him? I feel like he would be your throughline after seeing him target Seanzie

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:47 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:35 pm

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:32 am

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:31 am

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:30 am Manny what'd you do for Night 2?

check who visits falcon, got no result so i assume i was rb'd.

.... why Falcon?

That…makes perfect sense to me.

Everything manny is doing makes perfect sense from a logical perspective.

Here’s my thinking-

The anti manny brigade is bringing the heat today to discredit manny. Lime/mac/dunn are full on my wolf team atm

Dunn is such a strong logistician- odds are that both falcon and manny are not both PRs, as we would have 7 of the remaining town PRs including them. Improbable, but not conclusive. So going after falcon here is a play that makes sense. Could be right.

If we yeet falcon, and he's bad, then it looks good for Manny being Town. The possibility still exists that Manny is Caesar's Legion, and is throwing falcon under the bus for very good cred. Falcon's current absence would support the hypothesis that he said something like "bus me guys, I don't have time for this game" or something. Then, Manny would seem to be on a clock, as a 'Confirmed Town', and we'd get more suspicious as the game went on. That plan can work, and might have looked like the better option to Manny, who was concerned for his life on that Day. "Wolves aren't killing me because I'm vanilla now and they want you to yeet me."

If we yeet falcon, and he's good, then I guess he should have shown up, but it doesn't specifically make Manny look worse or better. Then questions about him would still linger.

If we yeet Manny, and he's bad, then it could be the bussing plan in action, or could be just a Wolf trying to get Town falcon yeeted.

If we yeet Manny, and he's good, then we lose him and still wonder about falcon.

Just wanted to work out some stuff, I was hoping to come to the best option. Neither yeet truly dictates how we would deal with the other one.

Scotty, "odds are that both falcon and manny are not both PRs", what do you mean? I would assume they are both definitely PRs.

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:05 pm

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:47 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:40 pm Yeah, it made sense. Idk if I bought it but it made sense....until Manny came out with a scumread on Falcon with zero posts from Falcon between "I'm tracking this player because I think they're an outted town PR" to "75% chance Falcon is a wolf in any possible world."

I watched it overnight because i thougth there were chances of him being a town PR, i stopped thinking that when i saw that both him and me survived the night.
Him not being in my A) and B) team is just cuz i forgot temporarily he existed

….you forgot he existed? After targeting him? I feel like he would be your throughline after seeing him target Seanzie


Mmmmmm something about that doesn’t add up

LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:06 pm I still feel like your outing was a bit premature strategy-wise, but at least it feels (from the posts that I read so far) as if a weight has been lifted from your shoulders: Your posts seem to be more uplifted than they were D2 and D1. So if that's the case I'm glad you are doing better now!

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:03 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:01 pm At least we know Manny isn't 3P because wtf would the serial killer claim made up targets for Falcon and why would the protag claim town watcher and increase the chance of being blocked or nightkilled?

Serial Killer could claim just fine, with their fakeclaim.

LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:07 pm Talking from experience here, Scotty, this is just Manny in a nutshell.

LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:48 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:36 pm

LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:31 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:17 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:09 pm Also town has 4 flipped dead power roles so far. And Manny is claiming to be a 5th. Is becomes increasingly more likely that any additional power we spot acting is not town but instead anti-town.

That's a good point.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:12 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:07 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:05 pm Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie. At this point there are mafia roles and third party roles that I believe should target like that. I think we shoul eliminate falcon and that they should be claiming today.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

I'm not in the mental zone to immediately understand "Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie", can you calrify that please?

Sure. Town's power roles are listed and there are only a few that target that falcon could be. I find stuff like the bodyguard would be questionable to use on Seanzie night 1 when they were the counter to the wagon.

But it was Manny that called out falcon, right? Are they both bad, and it was a bussing kind of ploy?

If both were wolves, even if Manny ends up "bussing" a partner like that, Manny's survival would out him sooner rather than later. I also don't think that Manny would go for such a strategy when already under scrutiny/in the upper part of the POE for many players unless the wolf team was in an awfully losing spot - which it doesn't look like at all.

I could theoretically see a 3P Manny making such a move, but that requires a poisoner world (with no poisons out so far) - but I think you see the issues that crop up immediately in such a scenario.

I'm pretty sure Manny's just town here and Falcon... needs to claim, fast. And then we decide from there whether we believe that claim or not.

Jack had a good point. Falcon, IF he comes back, will certainly claim one of the four Town roles available, and it will either be true, or it will be a fakeclaim.

What do we really need to hear from him?

I mean, it's ideal if he just comes back sooner than later, but what do we need to know?

You'd be surprised how much some wolves hate lying even if given fake claims or similar things by the hosts. I haven't played with Falcon before so I can't say what type of wolfing personality Falcon has, but if Falcon is a wolf, considering Falcon's posting this game so far, this may well be the case here. Call it a personality read.

Something else to keep in mind: What exactly Falcon will claim, and that contains both the N1 as well as the N2 action. If Falcon's town we gain valuable information, and if Falcon is a wolf we may still end up with information about what Falcon will NOT tell us, or what kind of role Falcon will claim. Or, fun third option: If Falcon is a 3P Falcon claiming may be extra spicy (less so if arsonist, more so if the unknown last 3P).

I'm also a more... let's call it "by the numbers" player regarding actions and mechanics. Get all potential info, use roles conservatively, don't hero shoot, don't fakeclaim without a big reason etc. So you may disagree about this helping us in the long run but I'd rather not risk a lack of info leading us into yet another yeet we end up regretting heavily.

If Falcon claims nothing though we found our D3 yeet, no question about that.