The Syndicate

Heists can have up to three non-vanilla roles.

Two of potentially three have been revealed.

The mafia have had two failed kills in as many Nights.

The "semi-limited" Doctor died ages ago so this isn't his doing.

Either mafia aren't submitting a name or the third non-vanilla role (a civilian) has been lights out.

Given that both non-vanilla roles are "semi-limited" (whatever that means. If you're limited, you're limited, but I digress), I would assume a third one would also be such.

The fact is I don't see anyone missing kills on purpose. For one, it's a terrible strategy. For two, there aren't any true inactives to frame. For three, there was a three but I forget what it was. Unimportant.

I don't believe there's a "semi-limited role blocker" for a reason Sloonei already expressed.

If there is another "semi-limited doctor" involved, he or she ought to be able to clear two individuals, which narrows the remaining pool down to five (since a civilian can clear himself in his own mind).

The civilians however only have three opportunities to lynch correctly (assuming one mafioso and that future kills are successful).

I'll write more after I've had my supper.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:56 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:35 pm I'm going to vote for Mac. He'll probably vote for me in return, but whatcha gonna do? [VOTE: Mac] aubergine

Why? I felt that you were one of the reasonable ones. Timing makes me think you're getting a head start on self preservation. Nerves?

I am not scum LC. Your vote should not be here.

We know you're not scum LC. You're scum Mac.

I have made posts that are good but Sloonei is just dismissing them as distancing and is captain townie. What can you do? TSP also spent more time trying to get me lynched than most but because it never took off in wagon form so it was never sensible for him to yell about it. Sloonei takes that to mean he wasn't serious about it. He wasn't. Because I am town. His points were bunk and his motivation wasn't and shouldn't be viewed in the same way that townie motivation is viewed. Scum don't naturally tunnel. They shift to where they can accomplish town lynches. I can't explain why my wagon never took off. But today I'm getting threatened which profiles. In the wake of a scum lynch and a weakened team the scum need a quick win and in this game I'm a slank lurker. I'm a mislynch.

I don't see the logical progression LC made to get to the point of voting me. Sloonei ... fair. Earlier when Epi voted me it felt like building early foundations towards accomplishing my mislynch.

Sig, Wilgy and Michelle are very unlikely to be scum by virtue of the fact that they haven't taken opportunity to shade me or suspect me. I can't imagine in this playstyle any scum could avoid it.

Come to think of it DDL flipping to town reading me here is also a good look for him. But I suppose he has time to flip on that.

I must admit I've been side eyeing LC all of day 6. He has been very blendy. I should have said something earlier because now it's omgus.

But yes if I die today and don't get a chance to post again I would have my POE as Epi/LC as major and DDL/Sloonei as minor candidates.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:04 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:56 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:35 pm I'm going to vote for Mac. He'll probably vote for me in return, but whatcha gonna do? [VOTE: Mac] aubergine

Why? I felt that you were one of the reasonable ones. Timing makes me think you're getting a head start on self preservation. Nerves?

I am not scum LC. Your vote should not be here.

We know you're not scum LC. You're scum Mac.

No I am an ordinary member of the townsfolk.

I could see a blocker, I di agree sloonie lynches look good, but we just saw him as mafia in a game where they hard bussed and if he didnt go for tsp he'd have gotten lynched

I'm just saying we shouldnt clear him.

My recommendation is long con today, see what happens at night assuming he doesnt flop and fo from there

LC
Mac/wilgy would be my lynch order

Tin foil sloonien

LC's my next choice after Mac.

My main issue with Sloonei aside from that I have intuitively read him scum all game is that he is reading me and TSP too simplisticly. I'm phone bound so no quotes but when I've tried to explain things he just cuts me off with angles of absolutism. The same way he hand waved Michelle defending me through TSP analysis as "easy distancing". I don't understand why he is tunneling me so much. I expect more pragmatism from him usually. Oh well.

sig wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:11 pm I could see a blocker, I di agree sloonie lynches look good, but we just saw him as mafia in a game where they hard bussed and if he didnt go for tsp he'd have gotten lynched

I'm just saying we shouldnt clear him.

My recommendation is long con today, see what happens at night assuming he doesnt flop and fo from there

We bussed in the Wire because I was already suspect. It was prudent to cut our losses and dispose of me in a way that would look good for my partners.
Tony was not getting lynched without my intervention. I was getting lynched if I didn't fight back.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:12 pm My main issue with Sloonei aside from that I have intuitively read him scum all game is that he is reading me and TSP too simplisticly. I'm phone bound so no quotes but when I've tried to explain things he just cuts me off with angles of absolutism. The same way he hand waved Michelle defending me through TSP analysis as "easy distancing". I don't understand why he is tunneling me so much. I expect more pragmatism from him usually. Oh well.

I admit I feel a little complacent right now. The game situation doesn't require much urgency. You're first on my list. The game doesn't end if I'm wrong.

You know what I don't think LC is scum. He has felt too aloof. And I feel like he's likely to flip town if I manage to save myself and that will lead to push button lynch. If he was scum in this situation I think he'd take more control and he sure as fuck wouldn't lazily flip on me. It's a wrong headed townie move.

I think Epi is the one playing Jafar here.

That's me done. I think Epi is the final mafia. Sure he has some points to defend himself by, any good scum would by now. He sure has let us hear them too. But between how he has angled me in, and the way Tony read him early as town and POE I think it's him.

Given that there is apparently 1 scum left I dont see any reason to look at any other angles and I've got buckleys chance of convincing anyone while alive so please investigate when I flip.

I'll maybe reply to questions if asked in the lead up to what feels like an inevitable lynch.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:16 pm You know what I don't think LC is scum. He has felt too aloof. And I feel like he's likely to flip town if I manage to save myself and that will lead to push button lynch. If he was scum in this situation I think he'd take more control and he sure as fuck wouldn't lazily flip on me. It's a wrong headed townie move.

I think Epi is the one playing Jafar here.

[VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine

/effort

If there are two scum left that would be pretty oof.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:23 pm If there are two scum left that would be pretty oof.

Agreed

I still think Epi just nightkills me by Night 3 at the latest.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:36 pm I still think Epi just nightkills me by Night 3 at the latest.

This is what I mean. You aren't challenging yourself at all.

Here are several arguments to this point. Pick one. You were a suspect. There have been two missed night kills (before you reply with obvious bs again yes I know you randomly prefaced it by saying before n3) so he may have tried. You also are refusing to read him scum. There were also more than one person making decisions and TSP was killing through his lock town reads out of need. I don't think anyone argues with n1-3 kill choices. Also you being alive helps him justify he himself being alive. If you are dead early he stands out like dogs balls.

This is quite frustrating. It's like you're refusing to think beyond Mac is scum which you haven't even made a good case on. You literally said I was scum first, read the dead scum's interactions with me, retrofitted all of them to make sense in your worldview and stopped giving a shit. Reject my defence, reject others defending me, reject my points. Do better.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:46 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:36 pm I still think Epi just nightkills me by Night 3 at the latest.

This is what I mean. You aren't challenging yourself at all.

Here are several arguments to this point. Pick one. You were a suspect. There have been two missed night kills (before you reply with obvious bs again yes I know you randomly prefaced it by saying before n3) so he may have tried. You also are refusing to read him scum. There were also more than one person making decisions and TSP was killing through his lock town reads out of need. I don't think anyone argues with n1-3 kill choices. Also you being alive helps him justify he himself being alive. If you are dead early he stands out like dogs balls.

This is quite frustrating. It's like you're refusing to think beyond Mac is scum which you haven't even made a good case on. You literally said I was scum first, read the dead scum's interactions with me, retrofitted all of them to make sense in your worldview and stopped giving a shit. Reject my defence, reject others defending me, reject my points. Do better.

I have thought about all of these things. I’ve talked about most of them. I made tons of posts before I arrived at “Mac is bad.”

Also Tony wasn’t killing his locktown reads. The mafia team was killing the thread’s locktown reads.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:50 pm Also Tony wasn’t killing his locktown reads. The mafia team was killing the thread’s locktown reads.

Oh but I thought it makes no sense that Epi wouldn't kill you. Come the fuck on.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:56 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:50 pm Also Tony wasn’t killing his locktown reads. The mafia team was killing the thread’s locktown reads.

Oh but I thought it makes no sense that Epi wouldn't kill you. Come the fuck on.

I was one of those locktown reads. Epi has said in the past that he’d kill me early before I can make too much noise. He pushed aggressively to lynch me right out of the gate Day 4. If Epi is mafia and wanted me dead at that point, he has no reason to jump through that hoop and risk exposing himself unless he’s playing this game for style points. That’s not impossible, but I’m not gonna bank on it being the most likely scenario.

Why does he need you dead so badly? You're not even bothering to humour the notion that he's scum.

And as I mentioned. You dying makes an Epi lynch that much more feasible. Not just for reasons I said but also for reasons you just pointed out.

If you wish to not even entertain my argument based on such a flimsy premise I dunno why I am bothering.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:48 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:46 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:36 pm I still think Epi just nightkills me by Night 3 at the latest.

This is what I mean. You aren't challenging yourself at all.

Here are several arguments to this point. Pick one. You were a suspect. There have been two missed night kills (before you reply with obvious bs again yes I know you randomly prefaced it by saying before n3) so he may have tried. You also are refusing to read him scum. There were also more than one person making decisions and TSP was killing through his lock town reads out of need. I don't think anyone argues with n1-3 kill choices. Also you being alive helps him justify he himself being alive. If you are dead early he stands out like dogs balls.

This is quite frustrating. It's like you're refusing to think beyond Mac is scum which you haven't even made a good case on. You literally said I was scum first, read the dead scum's interactions with me, retrofitted all of them to make sense in your worldview and stopped giving a shit. Reject my defence, reject others defending me, reject my points. Do better.

I have thought about all of these things. I’ve talked about most of them. I made tons of posts before I arrived at “Mac is bad.”

None of substance.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:12 pm
And as I mentioned. You dying makes an Epi lynch that much more feasible. Not just for reasons I said but also for reasons you just pointed out.

Anybody dying makes anybody else's lynch that much more feasible.

It's math.

I'm not used to you being so wrong either. It's annoying me.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:16 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:12 pm
And as I mentioned. You dying makes an Epi lynch that much more feasible. Not just for reasons I said but also for reasons you just pointed out.

Anybody dying makes anybody else's lynch that much more feasible.

It's math.

Obviously numb nuts but because you're you, being alive without a perceived bigger threat also being alive, particularly from that early, forced you into a gauntlet of suck and I don't think you ever were truly threatened by Sloonei.

Tell me how many times in all the games you've played together has Sloonei managed to catch and lynch you?

Forces*

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:20 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:16 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:12 pm
And as I mentioned. You dying makes an Epi lynch that much more feasible. Not just for reasons I said but also for reasons you just pointed out.

Anybody dying makes anybody else's lynch that much more feasible.

It's math.

Obviously numb nuts but because you're you, being alive without a perceived bigger threat also being alive, particularly from that early, forced you into a gauntlet of suck and I don't think you ever were truly threatened by Sloonei.

Tell me how many times in all the games you've played together has Sloonei managed to catch and lynch you?

Well now Mac I don't have the numbers right in front of me I'm sorry to say but as mafia I don't think I've been caught and lynched more than ten times period.

The three kills we've had were systematic. All three voted Creature. Sloonei is the only one left alive out of that crowd.

I still say we gotta lynch lc

Then players who may have missed night actions

sig wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:24 pm Wilgy is a straight up meh.

Coward

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:40 pm

sig wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:24 pm Wilgy is a straight up meh.

Coward

Nou

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:12 pm Why does he need you dead so badly? You're not even bothering to humour the notion that he's scum.

And as I mentioned. You dying makes an Epi lynch that much more feasible. Not just for reasons I said but also for reasons you just pointed out.

If you wish to not even entertain my argument based on such a flimsy premise I dunno why I am bothering.

He doesn’t need me dead. But on Day 4 he pushed very aggressively to get me lynched, so it’s evident that he wanted me dead.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:26 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:20 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:16 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:12 pm
And as I mentioned. You dying makes an Epi lynch that much more feasible. Not just for reasons I said but also for reasons you just pointed out.

Anybody dying makes anybody else's lynch that much more feasible.

It's math.

Obviously numb nuts but because you're you, being alive without a perceived bigger threat also being alive, particularly from that early, forced you into a gauntlet of suck and I don't think you ever were truly threatened by Sloonei.

Tell me how many times in all the games you've played together has Sloonei managed to catch and lynch you?

Well now Mac I don't have the numbers right in front of me I'm sorry to say but as mafia I don't think I've been caught and lynched more than ten times period.

i’ve definitely caught you more than once

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:41 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:12 pm Why does he need you dead so badly? You're not even bothering to humour the notion that he's scum.

And as I mentioned. You dying makes an Epi lynch that much more feasible. Not just for reasons I said but also for reasons you just pointed out.

If you wish to not even entertain my argument based on such a flimsy premise I dunno why I am bothering.

He doesn’t need me dead. But on Day 4 he pushed very aggressively to get me lynched, so it’s evident that he wanted me dead.

This.

TSP/Sloonei is not W/W. If they are both wolf, then by virtue if how good their distancing was, I no longer give a fuck.

sig wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:40 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:40 pm

sig wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:24 pm Wilgy is a straight up meh.

Coward

Nou

Oh Sig. You are so cute, I could just eat you.

Not alive of course. That would be cruel.

I say we lynch you so that I may have the pleasure of eating you.

Creature didn't try to save himself (and he could have). TSP tried to save Creature (and there's a post defending him).

I still don't think Sloonei made it all the way to Day 5 to destroy TSP.

It's LC or Mac for me today.

I've decided the order that I would like to consume corpses as follows: Sig, Michelle, then LC.

Are we in agreement?

*Not LC, Mac. Silly me.

LC's interactions with Tony are the most softball things I've seen.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:43 am The thing is, I agreed with DDL's assessment of Tony last phase. I went to Tony's ISO to disprove DDL's read that Tony was one of the more solvey players, but it ended up with me agreeing.

Why is it Tony now, Sloon? Suddenly it's a Tony-or-Sloonei thing on the table, and I don't know if that's the right thing.

This post in particular stands out.

"I know Sloonei is good and Tony is my teammate, so I will try to appease Sloonei to save my semi-limited hitman."

There is no evidence that I could find of LC really trying to figure Tony out. It all looks like trying to nudge people away from him.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:45 pm Very nice! Great to still see you around, Mr Sloon. I was afraid it would go quiet after tonight.

Translation:

"Fucking damn it! What the hell?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:43 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:41 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:12 pm Why does he need you dead so badly? You're not even bothering to humour the notion that he's scum.

And as I mentioned. You dying makes an Epi lynch that much more feasible. Not just for reasons I said but also for reasons you just pointed out.

If you wish to not even entertain my argument based on such a flimsy premise I dunno why I am bothering.

He doesn’t need me dead. But on Day 4 he pushed very aggressively to get me lynched, so it’s evident that he wanted me dead.

This.

TSP/Sloonei is not W/W. If they are both wolf, then by virtue if how good their distancing was, I no longer give a fuck.

I’m talking about epi here

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:10 am I too wondered how I did "most of the work." I don't even know what work I did.

I want to highlight this for another reason. See the ugliness.

I didn't fully understand what "most of the work" means either but it looked to me like a baddie pissed that civilians were discarding other civilians as possible suspects.

I don't think I'll vote for you today.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:41 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:12 pm Why does he need you dead so badly? You're not even bothering to humour the notion that he's scum.

And as I mentioned. You dying makes an Epi lynch that much more feasible. Not just for reasons I said but also for reasons you just pointed out.

If you wish to not even entertain my argument based on such a flimsy premise I dunno why I am bothering.

He doesn’t need me dead. But on Day 4 he pushed very aggressively to get me lynched, so it’s evident that he wanted me dead.

So you are removing Epi from suspicion because on day 4 he made some posts suspecting you which indicates if he was scum he'd have killed you already?

Do you not see how absurd of a reason that is?

If Epi is scum and they had better kill targets than you why would he not put suspicion on you? Are you suggesting that for Epi to be scum he must avoid suspecting you?

It's all just bad logic imo. He's a massive red flag for me. As I said if you decide to remove me please look there.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:06 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:41 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:12 pm Why does he need you dead so badly? You're not even bothering to humour the notion that he's scum.

And as I mentioned. You dying makes an Epi lynch that much more feasible. Not just for reasons I said but also for reasons you just pointed out.

If you wish to not even entertain my argument based on such a flimsy premise I dunno why I am bothering.

He doesn’t need me dead. But on Day 4 he pushed very aggressively to get me lynched, so it’s evident that he wanted me dead.

So you are removing Epi from suspicion because on day 4 he made some posts suspecting you which indicates if he was scum he'd have killed you already?

Do you not see how absurd of a reason that is?

If Epi is scum and they had better kill targets than you why would he not put suspicion on you? Are you suggesting that for Epi to be scum he must avoid suspecting you?

It's all just bad logic imo. He's a massive red flag for me. As I said if you decide to remove me please look there.

... yes? I see evidence which suggests Epi is not mafia, so I’ve applied it to my read of him.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:57 pm LC's interactions with Tony are the most softball things I've seen.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:43 am The thing is, I agreed with DDL's assessment of Tony last phase. I went to Tony's ISO to disprove DDL's read that Tony was one of the more solvey players, but it ended up with me agreeing.

Why is it Tony now, Sloon? Suddenly it's a Tony-or-Sloonei thing on the table, and I don't know if that's the right thing.

This post in particular stands out.

"I know Sloonei is good and Tony is my teammate, so I will try to appease Sloonei to save my semi-limited hitman."

There is no evidence that I could find of LC really trying to figure Tony out. It all looks like trying to nudge people away from him.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:45 pm Very nice! Great to still see you around, Mr Sloon. I was afraid it would go quiet after tonight.

Translation:

"Fucking damn it! What the hell?

On the other hand, Tony looked like he tried hard to push for LC’s lynch. It could be bussing. I haven’t ruled it out.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:04 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:10 am I too wondered how I did "most of the work." I don't even know what work I did.

I want to highlight this for another reason. See the ugliness.

I didn't fully understand what "most of the work" means either but it looked to me like a baddie pissed that civilians were discarding other civilians as possible suspects.

I don't think I'll vote for you today.

Bless.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:06 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:41 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:12 pm Why does he need you dead so badly? You're not even bothering to humour the notion that he's scum.

And as I mentioned. You dying makes an Epi lynch that much more feasible. Not just for reasons I said but also for reasons you just pointed out.

If you wish to not even entertain my argument based on such a flimsy premise I dunno why I am bothering.

He doesn’t need me dead. But on Day 4 he pushed very aggressively to get me lynched, so it’s evident that he wanted me dead.

So you are removing Epi from suspicion because on day 4 he made some posts suspecting you which indicates if he was scum he'd have killed you already?

Do you not see how absurd of a reason that is?

If Epi is scum and they had better kill targets than you why would he not put suspicion on you? Are you suggesting that for Epi to be scum he must avoid suspecting you?

It's all just bad logic imo. He's a massive red flag for me. As I said if you decide to remove me please look there.

Hey Mac.

Why not look at Tony's treatment of me and my treatment of Tony and see if we're teammates?

That might help you a little bit.

Early game scum kill choices indicate scum were simply nailing the major town threats each night.

TSP had an early game list to define how they viewed this.

All of the players he considered townie enough to put high in his list are dead with the exception of Sloonei and Epi.

The vast majority of the rest are all still alive.

I have this POV because of how he played me in knowledge of my role so I understand how it isn't obvious to everyone else how important this is but please remember this if/when you flip me.

TSP spewed a scum strategy. His play towards me was not what Sloonei suggests it was in the sense that he did in fact want me to be lynched when the time was right. That time didnt come while he lived but if it did he had foundations with which to justify pivoting to me.

His play towards me kept his options open. He played it well. Because despite my suspecting and voting him I look bad on his demise. I suspect so would quite a few others. This gives his teammate the assist. Epi or Sloonei are playing that role. More than enough others are ruling Sloonei out. If I take them at their word this casts doubt in my mind on Epi.

Now with the two missed kills it seems logical that at least one of them was targeted because the likelihood of both doctor and shooter targeting not either of them 2 separate times given their comparative places in the game hierarchy is simply unlikely. Perhaps DDL is the only other remaining player who with context would draw both moves. But not last night. It seems beyond doubt that Sloonei was targeted last night.

So that leaves Epi.