The Syndicate

S~V~S wrote:

Long Con wrote:

S~V~S wrote:So, my theory is also about a role possibility. And the thing that kept popping into my head was DharmaHelper in the first recruitment game being a seemer role. He came up as a mystery civvie role; in that game, not all roles were revealed immediately. So a role no one ever heard of was a possibility. And it allowed the baddie team to claim a role that no one else had, so no one could dispute it. It also got his teammates tons of cred, as I recall it, although I could have that wrong.

LoRab wrote:I also thought of the possibility of a seemer role. I had the first seemer role, so it always goes through my mind. But I'm not seeing how it's the case here. I'm also confused. You're speculating that Made might be a seemer-type role and baddie teammates switched the lynch and are possibly setting up for what role they've chosen? And would that have just meant they got lucky with who they chose for the lynch?

Ah, my Seemers. The first Seemer was in Mafia: A World Apart (sequel coming soon!), and it was Lorab. I'm so happy with the role-type taking on the name. Someone should do a baddie team that are all different kinds of Seemer.

Well, S~V~S, I've had my share of suspicion of you, I think we can agree. Let me tell you what this sounds like to me, and let me know if I'm crazy to come up with this possibility.

In my scenario, you are a baddie, and you think it's more than likely Made will turn up Civvie... so you had better sow a seed of doubt a la Seemer into the mix. Then when you turn up with your fingerprints among the many others all over his lynch, we are supposed to think "Maybe he wasn't King Arthur/Sir Galahad/Sir Lancelot/whatever... he was probably a Seemer!"

S~V~S, I'm sure you can see that this conclusion isn't isn't overly intricate. I'm also sure that there's assumptions you will challenge to show the weaknesses in the idea. But there it is, so just don't be surprised that you're still one of the more prominent names on my lynch list. MAFIA, am I right?

I was waiting for someone to make this post

What I am saying is we should NOT lynch Made; unless he flips bad, we learn nothing and spent the rest of the game arguing over a speculation. I think we should lynch someone in his circle of trust and see what happens. Becasue him being a Seemer is the best explanation I can come up with for that circle of trust. The same people keep coming in to shore him up; you, Enrique, Canuck. But why? That is what I am trying to solve for. I thought early in the game that he & Enrique had civ BTS, but both have pushed against each other, which civ BTS partners would not need to do. You have a fairly constant low level protection of him going on, and you & Canuck seem pretty simpatico. Then she is the biggest proponent of the Lovers thing. I was wondering which of the three of you would make this post. Not too surprised it was you.

Running late today. Not sure what I plan to do just yet, votewise, I had less time this cycle than I would have liked, that pesky family

I won't be voting for Made.

Interesting. I didn't think I had a "constant low level protection" going on for Made, are you sure about that? It must be subtle, since I didn't make Made's list of people who support him.

If you are actually a Civvie who believes Made is a Civvie, then maybe you should consider that Made retaining some suspicion on him is a good thing. However, if he were lynched and flipped Civvie, I disagree that "we learn nothing etc." like you just said. I don't think the idea that he's a Seemer is worth considering, because a) it's a lot more unlikely than likely, and b) it would involve a lot more ideal coincidence considering A Person's role, and the recent lynch. If he's lynched and flips Civvie, then I'm not going to spend the rest of the game on speculation that he was a Seemer.

thellama73 wrote:Frankly, at this point, the only chance I think I have at understanding this game at all depends on knowing Made's role. I am going to cast my vote for him now. I have to know!

What understandings will you gain from his lynch? Extrapolate, if you will... "If Made is lynched and is _______, then I will believe _____" Or something to that effect.

Or, you know, talk about other people. I'm getting sucked back into The Made Show a bit here. We do need other talk, you're right.

Long Con wrote:

thellama73 wrote:Frankly, at this point, the only chance I think I have at understanding this game at all depends on knowing Made's role. I am going to cast my vote for him now. I have to know!

What understandings will you gain from his lynch? Extrapolate, if you will... "If Made is lynched and is _______, then I will believe _____" Or something to that effect.

If Made flips bad, I will have a much better sense of who his teammates are. A lot of his defenders will make more sense. As I said, we may be dealing with the ballsiest mafia ever. If Made flips good, I have a whole other set of suspicions, which I would prefer to keep under my hat until I see Made's alignment.

Long Con wrote:Or, you know, talk about other people. I'm getting sucked back into The Made Show a bit here. We do need other talk, you're right.

That's the other thing. As long as Made's alive, we seem incapable of talking about anything else, and I think that's unhealthy.

When I get a chance, I want to go over Made's case on MR... I might have done a tl;dr on it the first time, and I feel bad since he said it took him hours to put together and it has gotten little response.

Who do you THINK will be lynched today?

Long Con wrote:When I get a chance, I want to go over Made's case on MR... I might have done a tl;dr on it the first time, and I feel bad since he said it took him hours to put together and it has gotten little response.

Who do you THINK will be lynched today?

Not to get all metaphysical on you, but I believe in free will as opposed to determinism, so I don't think that is predictable. The person who will be lynched today is the person the most people decide to vote for (barring any more lynch switchy monkeyshines.)

Why did you ask that question? Seems a bit weird.

thellama73 wrote:

Long Con wrote:When I get a chance, I want to go over Made's case on MR... I might have done a tl;dr on it the first time, and I feel bad since he said it took him hours to put together and it has gotten little response.

Who do you THINK will be lynched today?

Not to get all metaphysical on you, but I believe in free will as opposed to determinism, so I don't think that is predictable. The person who will be lynched today is the person the most people decide to vote for (barring any more lynch switchy monkeyshines.)

Why did you ask that question? Seems a bit weird.

I asked because I asked it of myself and didn't know. There's been Metalmarsh talk here and there, and of course Made, and I think there's some MR lynch proponents out there... but right now it seems like a pretty unpredictable lynch.

Made, I did re-read your post on MR (I was confused yesterday when I said MM) and though I can't say I really feel your case, there is this one part that causes me pause (see below)

Made wrote: You might be wondering, what his other post adding to the conversation was. Here it is!

Mister Rearranger wrote:

S~V~S wrote:Same question as for Enrique, MR, do YOU think the people who voted for MP are bad? Or do you just think they might be cause they voted for MP?

That block of BWT, Daisy, and Canuck is coincidental, to say the least. So they might be, but it'd be a very ballsy move by Daisy to push that strongly against MP so my thought (and vote) relied on me doubting that she's bad.

How he know the consecutive voting was a coincidence is beyond me.

I don't remember MR answering this though it may be that he did and I missed it since I didn't really catch this point the first time around. MR, why did you call the BWT/Daisy/Canuck votes in a row coincidental?

Really sorry for not contributing more, guys. Every time I sit down to catch up, I read a couple dozen posts and leave to do something...when I come back to attempt to finish the catch up I am even further behind. As of now, I am 5 pages behind. I will try my best to get fully caught up by the poll deadline, but to be perfectly honest I don't know if I'll be able to.

Outside of being defensive during the llama/madame thing back on day 1, what is the.case.on jc again? I've not really noticed anything since then.

I have.to work this am so I will follow along.by.phone.as.best as I can.

juliets wrote:MM, made laid out a case on him and was surprised that he got no reaction from the rest of us. I need to re-read him and then re-read made's case because it did not make an impression on me.

He did? When did this happen?

I am not sure I will be back this evening in time for the vote, so just in case I voting Made for now. I understand all the possible theories, but AP didnt defend Made at all it seems and even was suspish of him if I remember right.

Either Made is an awesome baddie or a huge awesome distraction for baddies to hide behind.

*votes Made*

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

juliets wrote:MM, made laid out a case on him and was surprised that he got no reaction from the rest of us. I need to re-read him and then re-read made's case because it did not make an impression on me.

He did? When did this happen?

No, as I mentioned above I got you confused with MR and it was MR he laid out the case on.

juliets wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

juliets wrote:MM, made laid out a case on him and was surprised that he got no reaction from the rest of us. I need to re-read him and then re-read made's case because it did not make an impression on me.

He did? When did this happen?

No, as I mentioned above I got you confused with MR and it was MR he laid out the case on.

I see it now. I wasn't caught up at that point.

Speaking of MR, he's voted for me, yet I don't recall him talking about me. Is it forced? I'll take a look back now.

Also, maybe AP's vote was forced by mafia's hand, followed by a lynch switch. I don't know if we're discussing such things now, but it's another thought.

Long Con wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

Long Con wrote:When I get a chance, I want to go over Made's case on MR... I might have done a tl;dr on it the first time, and I feel bad since he said it took him hours to put together and it has gotten little response.

Who do you THINK will be lynched today?

Not to get all metaphysical on you, but I believe in free will as opposed to determinism, so I don't think that is predictable. The person who will be lynched today is the person the most people decide to vote for (barring any more lynch switchy monkeyshines.)

Why did you ask that question? Seems a bit weird.

I asked because I asked it of myself and didn't know. There's been Metalmarsh talk here and there, and of course Made, and I think there's some MR lynch proponents out there... but right now it seems like a pretty unpredictable lynch.

Are you looking for a bandwagon to hop onto before it forms?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Speaking of MR, he's voted for me, yet I don't recall him talking about me. Is it forced? I'll take a look back now.

This is the closest conclusion I could find.

Mister Rearranger wrote:I'm gonna have to vote soon, since I'll be driving out to Buffalo at 3 and don't wanna miss the lynch.

I don't love how Made immediately dropped his vote on me and took a vow of silence, but the discussion about why AP may have been lynched has given me pause in voting for him. I've never felt totally on board with lynching him in the first place.

Either MR's vote was forced, or he randomized, or he has a hidden agenda.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Long Con wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

Long Con wrote:When I get a chance, I want to go over Made's case on MR... I might have done a tl;dr on it the first time, and I feel bad since he said it took him hours to put together and it has gotten little response.

Who do you THINK will be lynched today?

Not to get all metaphysical on you, but I believe in free will as opposed to determinism, so I don't think that is predictable. The person who will be lynched today is the person the most people decide to vote for (barring any more lynch switchy monkeyshines.)

Why did you ask that question? Seems a bit weird.

I asked because I asked it of myself and didn't know. There's been Metalmarsh talk here and there, and of course Made, and I think there's some MR lynch proponents out there... but right now it seems like a pretty unpredictable lynch.

Are you looking for a bandwagon to hop onto before it forms?

I was going to hold off commenting on this until after the lynch, but I have a lot to say about that post, and since you pointed it out, I might as well follow through.

It is such an odd question, the only reason that immediately spring to mind for asking it is a baddie deciding whether to throw a teammate under the bus. If Made's lynch is a sure thing, his team will want to get in with early votes to make themselves look good. However, if the lynch is considerably in doubt, they won't want to move too quickly. I think it makes LC look really bad.

Hi Splinty McGinty!

By Daisy Jamaica Mecrazy!

Welcome fingers. I hope we can all get along.

Hey splints, welcome Goodbye daisy -

I don't know if I'll be on before the deadline. I'm going ahead and putting my vote on Made again.

Really, really sorry everyone! I've been crazy nuts busy with work the last few days, plus I'm getting over a cold/really bad allergies. I've been fairly good about keeping up, but terrible about posting because either my mind is in a haze or I'm just mentally drained. Will finish catching up today and post a bit more though.

thellama73 wrote:I'm starting to think we are dealing with the ballsiest mafia team in mafia history.

No kidding. I really was entertaining the thought of Made being good, but now it seems like he's intentionally acting like he is confused about Canuck's theory (which I thought was pretty easy to grasp) and claiming he knows how he survived over AP. Plus I'm so unsure about anyone else I'm suspicious of, because I feel like it ties back into whether or not Made is bad in each case. So I very well may be voting for him today unless I see something that really convinces me otherwise.

MR, why did you vote for Metalmarsh? I don't see any comments from you about him.

S~V~S wrote:
What I am saying is we should NOT lynch Made; unless he flips bad, we learn nothing and spent the rest of the game arguing over a speculation. I think we should lynch someone in his circle of trust and see what happens. Becasue him being a Seemer is the best explanation I can come up with for that circle of trust. The same people keep coming in to shore him up; you, Enrique, Canuck. But why? That is what I am trying to solve for. I thought early in the game that he & Enrique had civ BTS, but both have pushed against each other, which civ BTS partners would not need to do. You have a fairly constant low level protection of him going on, and you & Canuck seem pretty simpatico. Then she is the biggest proponent of the Lovers thing. I was wondering which of the three of you would make this post. Not too surprised it was you.

Running late today. Not sure what I plan to do just yet, votewise, I had less time this cycle than I would have liked, that pesky family

I won't be voting for Made.

Ugh. I keep going back and forth on this idea. I know I said I'm most likely voting for him today, but there's that little voice in the back of my head that keeps saying it won't accomplish anything.

Alright. I won't necessarily vote for Made today. I will take that back. But I REALLY need to think long and hard about this.

thellama73 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Long Con wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

Long Con wrote:When I get a chance, I want to go over Made's case on MR... I might have done a tl;dr on it the first time, and I feel bad since he said it took him hours to put together and it has gotten little response.

Who do you THINK will be lynched today?

Not to get all metaphysical on you, but I believe in free will as opposed to determinism, so I don't think that is predictable. The person who will be lynched today is the person the most people decide to vote for (barring any more lynch switchy monkeyshines.)

Why did you ask that question? Seems a bit weird.

I asked because I asked it of myself and didn't know. There's been Metalmarsh talk here and there, and of course Made, and I think there's some MR lynch proponents out there... but right now it seems like a pretty unpredictable lynch.

Are you looking for a bandwagon to hop onto before it forms?

I was going to hold off commenting on this until after the lynch, but I have a lot to say about that post, and since you pointed it out, I might as well follow through.

It is such an odd question, the only reason that immediately spring to mind for asking it is a baddie deciding whether to throw a teammate under the bus. If Made's lynch is a sure thing, his team will want to get in with early votes to make themselves look good. However, if the lynch is considerably in doubt, they won't want to move too quickly. I think it makes LC look really bad.

I'm not looking for a bandwagon, and I'm not looking for an early vote target. I'm sorry you find the question so odd, I was just being conversational.

Even if it were as you described, I don't see me basing my team's voting plan on Llama's Opinion. I hear you're a smart guy, Llama, but I don't know that I would place that much faith in your opinion.

Long Con wrote:Even if it were as you described, I don't see me basing my team's voting plan on Llama's Opinion. I hear you're a smart guy, Llama, but I don't know that I would place that much faith in your opinion.

Don't play this game unless you REALLY know what your doing or REALLY don't.

It's gotta be either genuine stupidity or calculated stupidity to work. Trust me I'm stupid.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:

S~V~S wrote:
What I am saying is we should NOT lynch Made; unless he flips bad, we learn nothing and spent the rest of the game arguing over a speculation. I think we should lynch someone in his circle of trust and see what happens. Becasue him being a Seemer is the best explanation I can come up with for that circle of trust. The same people keep coming in to shore him up; you, Enrique, Canuck. But why? That is what I am trying to solve for. I thought early in the game that he & Enrique had civ BTS, but both have pushed against each other, which civ BTS partners would not need to do. You have a fairly constant low level protection of him going on, and you & Canuck seem pretty simpatico. Then she is the biggest proponent of the Lovers thing. I was wondering which of the three of you would make this post. Not too surprised it was you.

Running late today. Not sure what I plan to do just yet, votewise, I had less time this cycle than I would have liked, that pesky family

I won't be voting for Made.

Ugh. I keep going back and forth on this idea. I know I said I'm most likely voting for him today, but there's that little voice in the back of my head that keeps saying it won't accomplish anything.

Alright. I won't necessarily vote for Made today. I will take that back. But I REALLY need to think long and hard about this.

I disagree with SVS. I think we learn a lot if he flips civ.

Llama seems pretty eager to get Made out of the game.

LC is far from stupid, Made.

Dana, any opinion on Bullz? Bea? Anyone?

thellama73 wrote:

birdwithteeth11 wrote:

S~V~S wrote:
What I am saying is we should NOT lynch Made; unless he flips bad, we learn nothing and spent the rest of the game arguing over a speculation. I think we should lynch someone in his circle of trust and see what happens. Becasue him being a Seemer is the best explanation I can come up with for that circle of trust. The same people keep coming in to shore him up; you, Enrique, Canuck. But why? That is what I am trying to solve for. I thought early in the game that he & Enrique had civ BTS, but both have pushed against each other, which civ BTS partners would not need to do. You have a fairly constant low level protection of him going on, and you & Canuck seem pretty simpatico. Then she is the biggest proponent of the Lovers thing. I was wondering which of the three of you would make this post. Not too surprised it was you.

Running late today. Not sure what I plan to do just yet, votewise, I had less time this cycle than I would have liked, that pesky family

I won't be voting for Made.

Ugh. I keep going back and forth on this idea. I know I said I'm most likely voting for him today, but there's that little voice in the back of my head that keeps saying it won't accomplish anything.

Alright. I won't necessarily vote for Made today. I will take that back. But I REALLY need to think long and hard about this.

I disagree with SVS. I think we learn a lot if he flips civ.

I think part of my problem is that I feel like I've focused way too much on Made, and not enough on some of the other cases that have been presented. The only one I feel confident about is with MM, and I do not agree with the case on him or think he's bad.

I might go and re-read Made's case on MR again. I didn't really pay much attention to it, other than acknowledging that he had made a case. I want to see if I see anything there.

Linki: Possibly, but I can understand his reasoning. I just think that there are other ways we can go about figuring out other potential baddies. And I would prefer to try one of those.

Linki2: Compared to llama, no. But everyone is compared to me, yes. :P

S~V~S wrote:LC is far from stupid, Made.

Dana, any opinion on Bullz? Bea? Anyone?

Didn't mean to imply they were.
I'm just saying it's hard to argue for those accusing you with out either being blissfully ignorant or have the situation awareness to you how far you can go to avoid suspicion, then the lack of common sense to go above and beyond that.

Dana wrote:Llama seems pretty eager to get Made out of the game.

Yes, I am. I have made no secret of that fact.

Made wrote:

Long Con wrote:Even if it were as you described, I don't see me basing my team's voting plan on Llama's Opinion. I hear you're a smart guy, Llama, but I don't know that I would place that much faith in your opinion.

Don't play this game unless you REALLY know what your doing or REALLY don't.

It's gotta be either genuine stupidity or calculated stupidity to work. Trust me I'm stupid.

I thought it would be understood by the fact that it is immediately preceded by "Even if it were as you described" that I was referencing Llama's postulated reality. In his theory, I am a baddie with a team that are waiting on his opinion to cast their votes.

S~V~S wrote:Dana, any opinion on Bullz? Bea? Anyone?

I think Bullz is doing a pretty good job of hunting for bad guys, and seems to be adding a lot to the conversation. I trust Bea quite a bit so that probably means she's bad. Can I ask why you chose those two names specifically, though?
I just finished classes for the day so I think I might work on one of those lists of how I feel about everyone at the moment.

thellama73 wrote:

Dana wrote:Llama seems pretty eager to get Made out of the game.

Yes, I am. I have made no secret of that fact.

Wether intentional or not llama just set himself up pretty well for the remainder of the game.

If I were to flip to bad Llama would of been right all game
When I flip good however, Llama will be the most consistent of the made accusers, no baddie would ride that train so hard.

As for MM, Ive felt off about him and probably voiced that, but I'll do it again so the other baddies last minute voting know what vote train to hop on.

Also Dana, reeds on my desk asap. (Linki- we're serious the same person)

Linki- this is exactly what happened to me in misfits. I acknowledged a theory where I was bad with another player and was lynched (in part) because of that.

S~V~S wrote:LC is far from stupid, Made.

Thanks, S~V~S, support appreciated! I know that you will understand that my voting for you at this time only reflects my belief that you are a baddie in this one, all the while glad to have you as a friend.

Going to work very shortly, see you after the lynch!

Bea on general vibes, and Bullz because you and he reacted almost simultaneously and pretty much the same way to my question about where Made heard "derail the thread".

Linki OK LC

So reading through Made's case on MR I think he had some decent ideas and I'll probably keep it in mind but I don't think it really pushes me to follow his vote there.

I also reread Juliets. I still hold that she seemed like she was trying to be blendy early on, she seemed like she was trying to stay under the radar and avoid being drawn into anything. Trying not to get on anyone's bad side in essence. Plus DF seemed to sort of half-heartedly defend her... I feel like she still is blendy actually, albeit to a lesser extent. A thorough readthrough of her posts shows that she seems to ask for opinions quite a lot but very rarely puts in her own. Probably around half of her posts from the past couple of days are "What/Why/Who do you think...". My suspicion of her remains.

As for MetalMarsh, I find his comment about the French to be quite pingy, for lack of a better term. It struck a chord when I first saw it and just gave me a bad vibe. I hadn't really thought of MM before that but the one assumption was enough to set my mind on him for whatever reason. He does seem to have done a fair bit of baddie hunting, and after day one has put himself out there. The only other thing that makes me wonder about him is a fairly minor thing but it's this:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I do not feel bad anymore for my speculation of Epi on Day 1. Goodbye Epi.

Initially I had misremembered this quote as suspicion instead of speculation but I think my opinion of it stays fairly the same. All he said about Epi was that it was strange he was so quiet, and then seemed to accept Epi's explanation for why that was. Throwing out a comment like this after Epi is revealed to have been an indy seems a bit shady to me, like he wanted credit for baddie-hunting or something? I don't know. I am suspicious of MM but the only case I can really come up with is shaky at best - based on vibes and a couple of comments I found relatively strange. It's more gut than anything at this point.

LonG Con, if you're still around, can you be more specific about why you are voting for SVS? Is it something she said, some way that she's been acting, or just a feeling?

linki - yes bullz i ask a lot of questions. It's a hallmark of my style.

Hello everyone. I'm going to be pretty busy this weekend (NY wedding celebration for my family and a few friends, and Chris will be here visiting so we want to show him around), but I will try and get caught up ASAP.
If anyone wants to give me a summary of the game so far it will be appreciated, but I will be reading the whole thing myself.
There is a lot of pages and a 0 % chance of me getting caught up by the lynch though, so I will either not vote, or vote for one of the people who didn't welcome me into the game! haha

Long Con wrote:

S~V~S wrote:LC is far from stupid, Made.

Thanks, S~V~S, support appreciated! I know that you will understand that my voting for you at this time only reflects my belief that you are a baddie in this one, all the while glad to have you as a friend.

Going to work very shortly, see you after the lynch!

Right back at ya, LC.

Hi Splints

I will summarize for you tonight.

fingersplints wrote:or vote for one of the people who didn't welcome me into the game! haha

Welcome, friend!

juliets wrote:LonG Con, if you're still around, can you be more specific about why you are voting for SVS? Is it something she said, some way that she's been acting, or just a feeling?

linki - yes bullz i ask a lot of questions. It's a hallmark of my style.

Juliets, this is a really weird question. LC and SVS have had several back-and-forths where his suspicion of her was outlined and explained in great detail, and her responses were also very detailed. What more specificity are you looking for? Or are you subtly trying to keep putting the SVS suspicion out into the thread in the hopes that people will latch onto it? I'm not sure who you might be trying to protect by doing this....
Need to think on it...

He backed off of me, though. And LC put the SVS suspicion back in the thread by voting for me.

Yo, SVS, is there a term for voting in hopes of getting others to vote someone? Because I've noticed that happens a lot.

Woah-linki kinda related? Basically mafia vote getting tactics.

Double related linki

Canucklehead wrote:

juliets wrote:LonG Con, if you're still around, can you be more specific about why you are voting for SVS? Is it something she said, some way that she's been acting, or just a feeling?

linki - yes bullz i ask a lot of questions. It's a hallmark of my style.

Juliets, this is a really weird question. LC and SVS have had several back-and-forths where his suspicion of her was outlined and explained in great detail, and her responses were also very detailed. What more specificity are you looking for? Or are you subtly trying to keep putting the SVS suspicion out into the thread in the hopes that people will latch onto it? I'm not sure who you might be trying to protect by doing this....
Need to think on it...

I'll read their threads if that's the case. I just don't remember what he outlined about her. I'm not trying to keep SVS out there - note that she was one of the people I do not suspect on my list.

Ebwop, unless I am completely misreading JC, I think she is kinda doing the opposite.

Linki ha ha