Re: Grasslands [Game Thread]
Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:33 pm
i would look at the nk first since id have no idea
List a reason to townread everybody in the game.
ok cool
In a world where you're town I might start to reconsider Alison, and maybe entertain a Tutuu/Alison team. I'd also probably tinfoil everyone in the game since if you're town I would definitely be fooled by someone.
Who is Alison's partner?Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:54 pm i honestly think we should eliminate alison today over sloonei
nova and jay both sussed alison and were more pro-sloonei than most others (and yes, i know jay had sloonei in his poe but he still defended sloonei a fair bit and resisted what he thought was undue pressure on him). if nova and jay were here they would be pushing alison over sloonei. they aren’t here because mafia didn’t want them here, and we should keep that in mind
another reason i don’t think mafia!sloonei would kill jay because there was quite a bit of speculation about a sloonei/jay w/w world. if sloonei is mafia he is killing someone that 1) would have helped him survive this day by pushing alison and 2) could have been eliminated after a scum!sloonei flip because he would have looked bad. sloonei would be shooting himself in the foot making that kill
meanwhile, nutella, who should have been the most lock cleared person out of anyone N2 pending an lc scum flip, is still alive over jay. nut has been the most anti-sloonei person from the start and pro-alison. mafia left her alive for a reason, and i think it’s because they want her to keep tunneling sloonei
sloonei doesn’t make these kills. they’re incredibly suboptimal for him and it doesn’t make sense when he could just kill nut instead
let’s trust in our dead teammates and kill alison
The speculation about Sloonei/Jay was pretty early on and disappeared quickly, and Jay was a consensus townread by the end of N2. Sloonei could easily have been afraid of JJJ pushing him further since he was trending down for JJJ. Your assumption 2 I think is incorrect since he wouldn't actually have looked bad since he had Sloonei in his PoE. Plus JJJ isn't exactly an easy person to elim. Do you have any reason to think Sloonei's town besides NKA?Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:54 pm another reason i don’t think mafia!sloonei would kill jay because there was quite a bit of speculation about a sloonei/jay w/w world. if sloonei is mafia he is killing someone that 1) would have helped him survive this day by pushing alison and 2) could have been eliminated after a scum!sloonei flip because he would have looked bad. sloonei would be shooting himself in the foot making that kill
Also, I kind of accepted that Nova was NKed for being a consensus townread and for their take on LC.Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:54 pm nova and jay both sussed alison and were more pro-sloonei than most others (and yes, i know jay had sloonei in his poe but he still defended sloonei a fair bit and resisted what he thought was undue pressure on him). if nova and jay were here they would be pushing alison over sloonei. they aren’t here because mafia didn’t want them here, and we should keep that in mind
It looks confusing and I'm guessing the wolves would be exactly the people we never would have guessed are wolves. (Just because this is what happened last game I played). SPF is someone I'd look at more closely in that scenario since there's no hard evidence or interactions clearing her, she just seems town based on weaker tone/mindmeld/effort reads. Her tone looks really pure but she's my most suspicious out of the consensus townreads because there really isn't anything to clear her.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:08 pm In the Champs Finale, the game-winning move was Arete's fake joat claim, because they also claimed to have a green check on the consensus top suspect at the time (who was town). It forced us to break out of our collective tunnel and start focusing on suspects who had been mistakenly cleared. It helped us catch the "deepwolf" sooner than we otherwise probably would have.
There is nothing in this game that can mechanically clear me. But if we are indeed in a state where I am the consensus top suspect and people think the game is hinging on that, I urge everyone to look outside that hypothetical gamestate. What does the game look like when I am town?
I know I just said I would reconsider Alison, but in the case where you're town I feel like just eliminating the next person in the PoE isn't the right move since the wolves would be pretty deep in that scenario. I also don't really think Alison makes sense as scum (especially since she's hard townreading Martin and pushed me really hard, I don't think her reads make sense from a scum POV and would box her in if you're town).Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:19 pmIt looks confusing and I'm guessing the wolves would be exactly the people we never would have guessed are wolves. (Just because this is what happened last game I played). SPF is someone I'd look at more closely in that scenario since there's no hard evidence or interactions clearing her, she just seems town based on weaker tone/mindmeld/effort reads. Her tone looks really pure but she's my most suspicious out of the consensus townreads because there really isn't anything to clear her.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:08 pm In the Champs Finale, the game-winning move was Arete's fake joat claim, because they also claimed to have a green check on the consensus top suspect at the time (who was town). It forced us to break out of our collective tunnel and start focusing on suspects who had been mistakenly cleared. It helped us catch the "deepwolf" sooner than we otherwise probably would have.
There is nothing in this game that can mechanically clear me. But if we are indeed in a state where I am the consensus top suspect and people think the game is hinging on that, I urge everyone to look outside that hypothetical gamestate. What does the game look like when I am town?
Have you looked at her interactions with LC?Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:19 pmIt looks confusing and I'm guessing the wolves would be exactly the people we never would have guessed are wolves. (Just because this is what happened last game I played). SPF is someone I'd look at more closely in that scenario since there's no hard evidence or interactions clearing her, she just seems town based on weaker tone/mindmeld/effort reads. Her tone looks really pure but she's my most suspicious out of the consensus townreads because there really isn't anything to clear her.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:08 pm In the Champs Finale, the game-winning move was Arete's fake joat claim, because they also claimed to have a green check on the consensus top suspect at the time (who was town). It forced us to break out of our collective tunnel and start focusing on suspects who had been mistakenly cleared. It helped us catch the "deepwolf" sooner than we otherwise probably would have.
There is nothing in this game that can mechanically clear me. But if we are indeed in a state where I am the consensus top suspect and people think the game is hinging on that, I urge everyone to look outside that hypothetical gamestate. What does the game look like when I am town?
Why must there be two deep wolves if I am town?Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:23 pmI know I just said I would reconsider Alison, but in the case where you're town I feel like just eliminating the next person in the PoE isn't the right move since the wolves would be pretty deep in that scenario. I also don't really think Alison makes sense as scum (especially since she's hard townreading Martin and pushed me really hard, I don't think her reads make sense from a scum POV and would box her in if you're town).Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:19 pmIt looks confusing and I'm guessing the wolves would be exactly the people we never would have guessed are wolves. (Just because this is what happened last game I played). SPF is someone I'd look at more closely in that scenario since there's no hard evidence or interactions clearing her, she just seems town based on weaker tone/mindmeld/effort reads. Her tone looks really pure but she's my most suspicious out of the consensus townreads because there really isn't anything to clear her.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:08 pm In the Champs Finale, the game-winning move was Arete's fake joat claim, because they also claimed to have a green check on the consensus top suspect at the time (who was town). It forced us to break out of our collective tunnel and start focusing on suspects who had been mistakenly cleared. It helped us catch the "deepwolf" sooner than we otherwise probably would have.
There is nothing in this game that can mechanically clear me. But if we are indeed in a state where I am the consensus top suspect and people think the game is hinging on that, I urge everyone to look outside that hypothetical gamestate. What does the game look like when I am town?
A little bit, LC hard townread her and called her his battle partner, and SPF called LC likely town a few times. I'm going to bed so I won't get the actual quotes or get more in depth until tomorrow. I'm not exactly scumreading SPF I just think that if there's a deepwolf, it's her. An SPF wolf scenario (and I don't think it necessarily means SPF/Hally, a W/T mindmeld is absolutely possible and I've seen it happen) would become more likely if you're town.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:25 pmHave you looked at her interactions with LC?Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:19 pmIt looks confusing and I'm guessing the wolves would be exactly the people we never would have guessed are wolves. (Just because this is what happened last game I played). SPF is someone I'd look at more closely in that scenario since there's no hard evidence or interactions clearing her, she just seems town based on weaker tone/mindmeld/effort reads. Her tone looks really pure but she's my most suspicious out of the consensus townreads because there really isn't anything to clear her.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:08 pm In the Champs Finale, the game-winning move was Arete's fake joat claim, because they also claimed to have a green check on the consensus top suspect at the time (who was town). It forced us to break out of our collective tunnel and start focusing on suspects who had been mistakenly cleared. It helped us catch the "deepwolf" sooner than we otherwise probably would have.
There is nothing in this game that can mechanically clear me. But if we are indeed in a state where I am the consensus top suspect and people think the game is hinging on that, I urge everyone to look outside that hypothetical gamestate. What does the game look like when I am town?
If it's not two deepwolves it's at least one of Alison/Martin and I townread them both.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:27 pmWhy must there be two deep wolves if I am town?Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:23 pmI know I just said I would reconsider Alison, but in the case where you're town I feel like just eliminating the next person in the PoE isn't the right move since the wolves would be pretty deep in that scenario. I also don't really think Alison makes sense as scum (especially since she's hard townreading Martin and pushed me really hard, I don't think her reads make sense from a scum POV and would box her in if you're town).Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:19 pmIt looks confusing and I'm guessing the wolves would be exactly the people we never would have guessed are wolves. (Just because this is what happened last game I played). SPF is someone I'd look at more closely in that scenario since there's no hard evidence or interactions clearing her, she just seems town based on weaker tone/mindmeld/effort reads. Her tone looks really pure but she's my most suspicious out of the consensus townreads because there really isn't anything to clear her.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:08 pm In the Champs Finale, the game-winning move was Arete's fake joat claim, because they also claimed to have a green check on the consensus top suspect at the time (who was town). It forced us to break out of our collective tunnel and start focusing on suspects who had been mistakenly cleared. It helped us catch the "deepwolf" sooner than we otherwise probably would have.
There is nothing in this game that can mechanically clear me. But if we are indeed in a state where I am the consensus top suspect and people think the game is hinging on that, I urge everyone to look outside that hypothetical gamestate. What does the game look like when I am town?
I agree with this in generalThunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:29 pmA little bit, LC hard townread her and called her his battle partner, and SPF called LC likely town a few times. I'm going to bed so I won't get the actual quotes or get more in depth until tomorrow. I'm not exactly scumreading SPF I just think that if there's a deepwolf, it's her. An SPF wolf scenario (and I don't think it necessarily means SPF/Hally, a W/T mindmeld is absolutely possible and I've seen it happen) would become more likely if you're town.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:25 pmHave you looked at her interactions with LC?Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:19 pmIt looks confusing and I'm guessing the wolves would be exactly the people we never would have guessed are wolves. (Just because this is what happened last game I played). SPF is someone I'd look at more closely in that scenario since there's no hard evidence or interactions clearing her, she just seems town based on weaker tone/mindmeld/effort reads. Her tone looks really pure but she's my most suspicious out of the consensus townreads because there really isn't anything to clear her.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:08 pm In the Champs Finale, the game-winning move was Arete's fake joat claim, because they also claimed to have a green check on the consensus top suspect at the time (who was town). It forced us to break out of our collective tunnel and start focusing on suspects who had been mistakenly cleared. It helped us catch the "deepwolf" sooner than we otherwise probably would have.
There is nothing in this game that can mechanically clear me. But if we are indeed in a state where I am the consensus top suspect and people think the game is hinging on that, I urge everyone to look outside that hypothetical gamestate. What does the game look like when I am town?
That's how I feel as well. I get the feeling that LC and SPF are both very competent players and are capable of wolf theater.
Sloonei does look significantly better for staying calm yet asking everyone to consider worlds where he's town. I'm not confident he's scum anymore (I mean I wasn't really confident before but now I'm even less confident).Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:35 pm guys i know nk’s are wifomy and stuff but in a situation like this where the obvious nk (nut) doesn’t die, we really really should consider that her reads are incorrect and that jay’s were better
and again, jay could easily have been eliminated off a scum!sloonei flip. sloonei does not take away a future miselimination like that instead of nk’ing the lock clear villager who is also tunneling him
please, let’s try to put the game in perspective and set aside our own reads a bit. i think it’s the right thing to do here
wasn’t meaning say it’s clearing, especially not since lc was dead already, but it should at least be part of the conversation
thanks.
I mean I didn't really want to get into the wifom of this because I think the reason can be exactly that you are posting this right now and doubting it. I keep saying I don't want to let Sloonei get by another day, and maybe I'm wrong and that's a mistake, but maybe that's what he wants you to think.
nnnnnnnnfffffffffffffffffffrrrrrrrrrrrrrgggggg
scum who are at the bottom of the poe don’t make wifom kills that increase their chances of dying and remove a future miselimination that they desperately need. they cannot afford to get fancy. this sort of thing would buy sloonei maybe a day if that. it’s just not an optimal playnutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:47 pmI mean I didn't really want to get into the wifom of this because I think the reason can be exactly that you are posting this right now and doubting it. I keep saying I don't want to let Sloonei get by another day, and maybe I'm wrong and that's a mistake, but maybe that's what he wants you to think.
Idk. I myself am having doubts that he kills jay / from his last few posts. But my vote has been placed, and I don't feel an alison yeet today although that may be the way to go if you're right about the me vs jay thing. I would potentially support a tutuu elimination but kinda feel like not enough people are ready to take that step.
Is there a possible Sloonei teammate who you think has strong reason to kill Jay?nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:47 pmI mean I didn't really want to get into the wifom of this because I think the reason can be exactly that you are posting this right now and doubting it. I keep saying I don't want to let Sloonei get by another day, and maybe I'm wrong and that's a mistake, but maybe that's what he wants you to think.
Idk. I myself am having doubts that he kills jay / from his last few posts. But my vote has been placed, and I don't feel an alison yeet today although that may be the way to go if you're right about the me vs jay thing. I would potentially support a tutuu elimination but kinda feel like not enough people are ready to take that step.
fair I guess, but also in the treehouse I was going pretty far into a sloonei/jay w/w theory and maybe sloonei decided that flipping jay might actually break me out of that and make me consider jay's tr of sloonei moreHally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:52 pmscum who are at the bottom of the poe don’t make wifom kills that increase their chances of dying and remove a future miselimination that they desperately need. they cannot afford to get fancy. this sort of thing would buy sloonei maybe a day if that. it’s just not an optimal playnutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:47 pmI mean I didn't really want to get into the wifom of this because I think the reason can be exactly that you are posting this right now and doubting it. I keep saying I don't want to let Sloonei get by another day, and maybe I'm wrong and that's a mistake, but maybe that's what he wants you to think.
Idk. I myself am having doubts that he kills jay / from his last few posts. But my vote has been placed, and I don't feel an alison yeet today although that may be the way to go if you're right about the me vs jay thing. I would potentially support a tutuu elimination but kinda feel like not enough people are ready to take that step.
how do u feel about alison's play today in general? has it made u more suspicious of her?Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:58 pm i will feel extremely dumb if im wrong about this and to be clear, im not saying to lock sloonei town and throw away the key. but i do think that it’s something we can trust in at least for today. it feels like the sort of self evident thing that we will kick ourselves for not getting if sloonei is eliminated this day and flips town
is getting you to possibly doubt your read a little more valuable than leaving jay alive so we can eliminate him after sloonei flips scum?nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:56 pmfair I guess, but also in the treehouse I was going pretty far into a sloonei/jay w/w theory and maybe sloonei decided that flipping jay might actually break me out of that and make me consider jay's tr of sloonei moreHally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:52 pmscum who are at the bottom of the poe don’t make wifom kills that increase their chances of dying and remove a future miselimination that they desperately need. they cannot afford to get fancy. this sort of thing would buy sloonei maybe a day if that. it’s just not an optimal playnutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:47 pmI mean I didn't really want to get into the wifom of this because I think the reason can be exactly that you are posting this right now and doubting it. I keep saying I don't want to let Sloonei get by another day, and maybe I'm wrong and that's a mistake, but maybe that's what he wants you to think.
Idk. I myself am having doubts that he kills jay / from his last few posts. But my vote has been placed, and I don't feel an alison yeet today although that may be the way to go if you're right about the me vs jay thing. I would potentially support a tutuu elimination but kinda feel like not enough people are ready to take that step.
idkidk you may just be right aaaaaaaa
yeah.Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:58 pm i will feel extremely dumb if im wrong about this and to be clear, im not saying to lock sloonei town and throw away the key. but i do think that it’s something we can trust in at least for today. it feels like the sort of self evident thing that we will kick ourselves for not getting if sloonei is eliminated this day and flips town
idk i’ve only just barely skimmed what was said since last night. i just had this Thought and wanted to shout about itstaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:00 pmhow do u feel about alison's play today in general? has it made u more suspicious of her?Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:58 pm i will feel extremely dumb if im wrong about this and to be clear, im not saying to lock sloonei town and throw away the key. but i do think that it’s something we can trust in at least for today. it feels like the sort of self evident thing that we will kick ourselves for not getting if sloonei is eliminated this day and flips town
okay valid, i honestly still want sloonei the most just factoring in the interaction analysis/how the game looks holistically to me rn - i have a harder time seeing a slooneitown world than i do seeing an alisontown world. i do understand your argument, though. the jagged kill gives me pause, and if sloonei is scum i dont understand the angle of killing one of his most passionate defendersHally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:01 pmidk i’ve only just barely skimmed what was said since last night. i just had this Thought and wanted to shout about itstaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:00 pmhow do u feel about alison's play today in general? has it made u more suspicious of her?Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:58 pm i will feel extremely dumb if im wrong about this and to be clear, im not saying to lock sloonei town and throw away the key. but i do think that it’s something we can trust in at least for today. it feels like the sort of self evident thing that we will kick ourselves for not getting if sloonei is eliminated this day and flips town![]()