The Syndicate

Oh shit it's a mafia game.

I literally have nothing to add I'm fine with Falcon being voted out if he's not posting at all.

I'm like completely lost with everything else.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 11:57 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 11:45 pm I agree with Chelsea today

All five posts? Just general agreement across the board?

I agree with their suspicions. We can work together in the following days.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:05 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 11:57 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 11:45 pm I agree with Chelsea today

All five posts? Just general agreement across the board?

I agree with their suspicions. We can work together in the following days.

I can't stop seeing your avatar as a purple sweater first and foremost.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:05 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 11:57 pm

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 11:45 pm I agree with Chelsea today

All five posts? Just general agreement across the board?

I agree with their suspicions. We can work together in the following days.

Welcome to the team.

bruh

either we’re getting clowned or someone in this thread is making bad decisions and I’m not entirely convinced that it isn’t me

Didn't help that two PRs kinda...went to the waste.

Granted I'll 100% take blame on the Nook death.

First one...yeah...

Ya still gotta towntell when you're PR...

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 9:43 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:42 pm don't ask me questions, I'm just a bystander in the affairs of the thread.

3P claim?

He’s my pick for the aggro 3p, not gonna beat around the bush. His outward demeanor screams ‘happy to be here’ and ‘I’m an expert with matches’.

Still think Epi could be courier #5

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 10:33 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:35 pm

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:32 am

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:31 am

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:30 am Manny what'd you do for Night 2?

check who visits falcon, got no result so i assume i was rb'd.

.... why Falcon?

That…makes perfect sense to me.

Everything manny is doing makes perfect sense from a logical perspective.

Here’s my thinking-

The anti manny brigade is bringing the heat today to discredit manny. Lime/mac/dunn are full on my wolf team atm

Dunn is such a strong logistician- odds are that both falcon and manny are not both PRs, as we would have 7 of the remaining town PRs including them. Improbable, but not conclusive. So going after falcon here is a play that makes sense. Could be right.

This post is confusing to me. I'm not pushing Manny, I've been saying we should go for Falcon.

Yeah I’m a few beers in and don’t really see why I lumped you into that either. Makes no sense to me. Probably had you as sewing discontent or something.

Anyway, I think you’re back to being town, so that’s my throughline

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:52 am either we’re getting clowned or someone in this thread is making bad decisions and I’m not entirely convinced that it isn’t me

See like here what are you what are you

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 1:00 am Didn't help that two PRs kinda...went to the waste.

Granted I'll 100% take blame on the Nook death.

First one...yeah...

Ya still gotta towntell when you're PR...

I forgot to lock my car when I went in the grocery store today

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:51 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:38 pm and we think role cop? did he get tracked or something

He got (allegedly) watched targeting Seanzie N1. Seanzie shot N2 and flipped PR. Falcon as a wolf role cop would make sense.

Could also be a tracker or blocker and Seanzie got killed N2 for other reasons I guess.

Slim chance Falcon is actually town and Manny’s the wolf but Manny’s explained his actions much better and Falcon has like one posted after skipping most of last phase.

Agreed and with that I'm calling it a day tbh

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:35 pm uh the day's gonna go to waste here which is kinda bad

No it's good cuz the game was kind of heated and lame and some time out is good. Also I might die which is good for me because I hate you all.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:42 pm don't ask me questions, I'm just a bystander in the affairs of the thread. There's no reason to talk about anything else, it can't really be a /good/ thing. Just a no-win situation. Town gets more info from the flip than the wolves do and pre-speccing on what to do if Falcon flips 3P instead of wolf is fruitless WIFOMing, just adding to the noise in the end. Maybe worth it to build some mech ideas and do some pre-flips with Falc. Not really sure.

OK tsp is town

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 1:30 am

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 1:00 am Didn't help that two PRs kinda...went to the waste.

Granted I'll 100% take blame on the Nook death.

First one...yeah...

Ya still gotta towntell when you're PR...

I forgot to lock my car when I went in the grocery store today

I'll let you borrow my Rolls Royce.

I have nothing else to add to the thread, if you have questions feel free to ping me. I'll probably do an Iso of Falcon to look for anything odd. However, I am probably voting Mac tomorrow.

Mac's main pushes from my POV are all town (Me, Manny, Lime) and came into the day trying to set up this odd statement saying that one of me or Lime should be dead because the mafia would be annoyed.

It seems extremely specific and almost like projecting. Those are my base level thoughts though, I'll check in later.

I feel like wolves are just blatantly whatever town they desire in this game

[VOTE: MacDougall] aubergine

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

[VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:37 am I feel like wolves are just blatantly whatever town they desire in this game

[VOTE: MacDougall] aubergine

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

[VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine

Jackofhearts2005 too

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:37 am I feel like wolves are just blatantly whatever town they desire in this game

what

do you think falcon's town?

Manny wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:44 am

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:37 am I feel like wolves are just blatantly whatever town they desire in this game

what

do you think falcon's town?

I am unsure why he's being wagoned

I thought you tracked him towny last night?

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:55 am

Manny wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:44 am

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:37 am I feel like wolves are just blatantly whatever town they desire in this game

what

do you think falcon's town?

I am unsure why he's being wagoned

I thought you tracked him towny last night?

And here I thought there was literally nothing left to do this phase.

Falcon got watched by Manny and has hidden in their basement since then which is more or less a wolf claim. Their one post on D3 pretty much alludes to that.

Because the situation seems so clear-cut everyone is taking a break (myself included; thought I'd be doing a lot more today when D3 started yesterday but honestly there's not much to discuss right now.

Chelsea wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:46 am Mac's main pushes from my POV are all town (Me, Manny, Lime) and came into the day trying to set up this odd statement saying that one of me or Lime should be dead because the mafia would be annoyed.

It seems extremely specific and almost like projecting. Those are my base level thoughts though, I'll check in later.

Yeah OK still no idea how all 3 of you are town with this level of confidence but if so sure I'm extra wolf. You've been nothing like town Chelsea and Brad has shielded you for essentially wolfing so I'll easily dome you tomorrow if it comes to it. Leave me alive if you want to throw.

oh man look at that it's creature

TonyStarkPrime, who are you townreading right now?

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:55 am I thought you tracked him towny last night?

have u read anything of this day?

Im kinda surprised Chelsea is now confident on me!v but ig its cuz she thinks falcon's a wolf and im not w/w with him

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 11:52 am TonyStarkPrime, who are you townreading right now?

not interested in judging the quick before I can judge the dead

Mac, maybe Epi, Lan, probably LC. Is that enough?

brad not long con

but I don't attach too much faith to those reads and I'm not going to necessarily hold them tomorrow

I wanna do something with Creature and if he weren't Creature I'd definitely townread this day 3 entrance and I guess it's a t!Creature thing to do but I respect him too much flr that and more importantly the setup isn't super friendly towards slots like that

I mean, I am pretty concerned because we just sleepwalked into two mislynches on two slots (sig and NANOOK) who I didn't even have any feeling on.

rn as far as I saw it looks like falcon45ca was caught visiting Seanzie N1 and the fact Seanzie died points to a wolf rolecop?

I can be alright with that lynch considering falcon45ca disappeared and it looks something more solid than anything there ever was on sig and NANOOK.

It still kinda feels like we're just sleepwalking into mislynches. Maybe falcon45ca might be a hit, but then tomorrow we'll prob end up wagoning someone like Lime Coke (who I townread) and I don't want town to sleepwalk into a mislynch like they did the two previous days.

Good concern, those were bad lynches and that’s the correct mindset to have coming into the day

And if Falcon flips town I’m throwing a fit I guess

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 3:59 pm I mean, I am pretty concerned because we just sleepwalked into two mislynches on two slots (sig and NANOOK) who I didn't even have any feeling on.

rn as far as I saw it looks like falcon45ca was caught visiting Seanzie N1 and the fact Seanzie died points to a wolf rolecop?

I can be alright with that lynch considering falcon45ca disappeared and it looks something more solid than anything there ever was on sig and NANOOK.

It still kinda feels like we're just sleepwalking into mislynches. Maybe falcon45ca might be a hit, but then tomorrow we'll prob end up wagoning someone like Lime Coke (who I townread) and I don't want town to sleepwalk into a mislynch like they did the two previous days.

Towny post. I don’t see falcon being saved today, and you obviously haven’t really read the thread

Too credulous, Scotty, too credulous

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 7:21 pm Too credulous, Scotty, too credulous

comin in here usin those big words, like 'too' and 'Scotty'

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 5:51 pm And if Falcon flips town I’m throwing a fit I guess

If you think that's a possibility I implore you to do something about it.

I don't think it's a possibility worth doing something about

nanook and sig were way worse kills and I barely tried to stop those why would I try to take a stand now to stop the chop of what amounts to an outed wolf

How is falcon an outed wolf?

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 8:21 pm How is falcon an outed wolf?

I dont think this is ever how a Town PR plays this day out, by virtue of... not playing this day out at all lol.
and i think even on pure statistics is pretty high for him being a wolf/3p PR with 3 Town PR's dead and myself existing, and him having targeted seanzie n1.

I wanted to hear why TonyStarkPrime thinks so

falcon no post

But that's basically why we eliminated the first two players who were town, and that was wrong. What makes it different this time?

That's not true. Sig was asleep after having posted plenty and Nook was posting just taking the piss a bit. Falcon has had more than enough opportunities to post and defend and while it's not a foregone conclusion the lack of that is very comfortably more probably a wolf resigned to their fate and not wanting to antispew.

Alright so I have a tell I like to use where a player does not understand why somebody is being suspected and ends up using different reasoning to try to explain why they are suspected. To me it feels that both MacDougall and TonyStarkPrime have no idea why falcon is suspected and so have defaulted to pointing out their activity, and while technically true, falcon was being voted with reasoning by me this day phase before they were expected to post - activity was not a factor in that read.

So let's go over why Falcon is being suspected and voted today:

First, they were seen visiting Seanzie on night 2. 4 town power roles are dead, and 1 other player (Manny) is claiming a town power role. There is a significant chance that Falcon is an anti-town role due to the number of town power roles we have already seen, and the amount of anti-town power roles that would be remaining. This is the big reason today.

Second, and this ties in with the above a bit, Falcon cannot have the role civilian, of which a significant number of remaining town players will have that role. This also makes Falcon more likely to be anti-town.

Third, as Chelsea pointed out the Seanzie kill was a bit weird. I was personally townreading them but I know a number of people were not, and they were almost eliminated on day 1. Falcon being a mafia role cop makes sense, as Seanzie flipped a power role.

Fourth, their posting today has been really lackluster, and seems like a caught mafia member avoiding giving anything away by arguing with other players.

------

Now as per my theory the mafia may find it hard to grasp why their partner is being suspected. Macdougall and TonyStarkPrime have only really engaged with point #4.

In post 1767 viewtopic.php?p=1110604#p1110604 MacDougall says that Falcon is "rand" so not a scumread, at this point the first point above has been discussed quite a bit, but two, three, and four haven't yet. As the day progresses they only engage with point four - Falcon is mafia because they are low posting this day phase and antispew.

In post 2047 viewtopic.php?p=1111030#p1111030 TonyStarkPrime says that it is not a courageous stance for me to be scumreading Falcon. I found this odd as I was the one to bring up points 1 and 2 above. They then go on to only engage with point #4: Falcon is mafia because they are low posting this phase and previous phases (though this call-out to previous phases only happens once the wagon is established on them today).