The Syndicate

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:49 pm Not to like jump ships here, but I looked back over votes D1. Alison voted Michelle first thing. Tutu voted Michelle later/mid day. But the wagon never really gained traction. So we know both Tutu and Alison is town, so if Michelle is town, is it strange that it didn't gain traction? @Alison What do you think?

You think Lavender and Michelle have partner equity?

I guess I'll put my vote on Lavender for now but I'm still trying to parse through whether this is a townie that makes no sense to me or a desperate wolf.

Michelle seems townie from me after an ISO read, especially the tiff with Alison.

from me? to me? prepositions.

Yeah... she definitely could still be a wolf, but I'd never want her to go today. I'm thinking slight to moderate town range.

Actually, I guess Michelle could be wolfing here if Lavender is town, but then who else is on the team.

I'm switching my vote to jeraldo/speed for now. I'm becoming increasingly concerned that Lavender could be town from a gamestate perspective. Let me continue to mull over this.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:24 pm I'm switching my vote to jeraldo/speed for now. I'm becoming increasingly concerned that Lavender could be town from a gamestate perspective. Let me continue to mull over this.

talk to me about this

If jeraldo and Lavender wagons are v/v, and assuming Urist is indeed not the godfather, then the team has to be within 1612/cobbler/Dizzy/Michelle.

I could see Dizzy and Michelle being teamed actually, but I don't want to go there because I really think Dizzy is town.

Do 1612, cobbler, and Michelle make sense as a pairing from a gamestate perspective... let me go back and look at EOD1 now with that possibility in mind.

That's an argument that the game is hard to solve IF Lavender is town, not an argument that Lavender IS town.

Also if Lavender is town I'd tend to assume the team is something like Michelle/?/? where ? can be [Urist/jeraldo/Cobbler] - that makes sense to me.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:00 pmI don't, really, and I'm exhausted from doing Lav. I'll hit michelle's ISO if I have time.

Alright, thanks. Just a note to your Lav ISO. Lav did say later that he didn't think Tutu was cop and that it was not a ploy.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:25 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:24 pm I'm switching my vote to jeraldo/speed for now. I'm becoming increasingly concerned that Lavender could be town from a gamestate perspective. Let me continue to mull over this.

talk to me about this

Michelle's Day 3 could be opportunistic, ironically enough... if Lavender is town here, scum would love to yeet him as a scummy-seeming town, and then leave us in a difficult situation next day phase, most likely with you dead.

If at least any two of jeraldo/1612/Lavender are town, we may be sort of fucked right now, and so I'm trying to see if that's possible. I got the impression when reading Michelle's posts that she feels a bit... increasingly complacent? She seemed really townie on Day 1, especially with her interactions with you, but then when trying to look for agenda, there definitely could be one.

Like... what the fuck is Lavender doing right now if he's scum? Going after me and Michelle, but why? What purpose does punching me do right now? He's only dug himself an incredible hole. So if we're looking specifically for "what strategy makes the most sense", I actually am starting to wonder if Michelle's recent behavior better matches that than Lavender's.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:28 pm That's an argument that the game is hard to solve IF Lavender is town, not an argument that Lavender IS town.

Also if Lavender is town I'd tend to assume the team is something like Michelle/?/? where ? can be [Urist/jeraldo/Cobbler] - that makes sense to me.

Right, so should we have Lavender and Michelle wagons instead of Lavender and jeraldo?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:30 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:28 pm That's an argument that the game is hard to solve IF Lavender is town, not an argument that Lavender IS town.

Also if Lavender is town I'd tend to assume the team is something like Michelle/?/? where ? can be [Urist/jeraldo/Cobbler] - that makes sense to me.

Right, so should we have Lavender and Michelle wagons instead of Lavender and jeraldo?

That makes sense to me.

The more I think about what Lavender is doing, the less any of it makes any sense to me from a "I want to win the game as a wolf" perspective. That's what concerns me.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:49 pm Not to like jump ships here, but I looked back over votes D1. Alison voted Michelle first thing. Tutu voted Michelle later/mid day. But the wagon never really gained traction. So we know both Tutu and Alison is town, so if Michelle is town, is it strange that it didn't gain traction? @Alison What do you think?

why do you think so?

I'm on board with a Lav lynch. Reading Lav's posts I don't really buy that he believes the pushes his making. Also, maybe a detail, but I actually really dislike him saying that Cobbler "ran for the hill" around the Tutu reveal, when I'm sure he must've been aware that Cobbler hadn't been posting for a long time already by then. Lav/1612/Speed still makes sense to me. They are all kind of defending each other in a tight spot here. I'm willing to lynch Lav over Speed though.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:31 pm The more I think about what Lavender is doing, the less any of it makes any sense to me from a "I want to win the game as a wolf" perspective. That's what concerns me.

Instead, what Michelle is doing today feels very compatible with that. She's okay with the status quo. If Lavender is town and she is a wolf, why wouldn't she be?

I sense no town spark to really break open the game. Complacency.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:32 pm I'm on board with a Lav lynch. Reading Lav's posts I don't really buy that he believes the pushes his making. Also, maybe a detail, but I actually really dislike him saying that Cobbler "ran for the hill" around the Tutu reveal, when I'm sure he must've been aware that Cobbler hadn't been posting for a long time already by then. Lav/1612/Speed still makes sense to me. They are all kind of defending each other in a tight spot here. I'm willing to lynch Lav over Speed though.

Look, I agree with you that Lavender's opinions make little sense, but why would he do any of that if he's wolfing here?

I still think he could be a wolf because I haven't even thrown out the pairing of Michelle/Lavender w/w actually, but I'm trying to spend some time in "Lavender is town" world right now because we need to be incredibly cognizant of it now even if we do decide to yeet him.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:32 pm I'm on board with a Lav lynch. Reading Lav's posts I don't really buy that he believes the pushes his making. Also, maybe a detail, but I actually really dislike him saying that Cobbler "ran for the hill" around the Tutu reveal, when I'm sure he must've been aware that Cobbler hadn't been posting for a long time already by then. Lav/1612/Speed still makes sense to me. They are all kind of defending each other in a tight spot here. I'm willing to lynch Lav over Speed though.

This is basically where I am wrt gamestate. My confidence on it isn't the highest, but if you put a gun to my head and asked me to name all three mafia, I'd name these three.

The question is... does Lavender believe what he's saying? I think it's possible.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:35 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:32 pm I'm on board with a Lav lynch. Reading Lav's posts I don't really buy that he believes the pushes his making. Also, maybe a detail, but I actually really dislike him saying that Cobbler "ran for the hill" around the Tutu reveal, when I'm sure he must've been aware that Cobbler hadn't been posting for a long time already by then. Lav/1612/Speed still makes sense to me. They are all kind of defending each other in a tight spot here. I'm willing to lynch Lav over Speed though.

This is basically where I am wrt gamestate. My confidence on it isn't the highest, but if you put a gun to my head and asked me to name all three mafia, I'd name these three.

That's certainly possible, but it's if the game is on easy mode, yeah?

Michelle wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:32 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:49 pm Not to like jump ships here, but I looked back over votes D1. Alison voted Michelle first thing. Tutu voted Michelle later/mid day. But the wagon never really gained traction. So we know both Tutu and Alison is town, so if Michelle is town, is it strange that it didn't gain traction? @Alison What do you think?

why do you think so?

I was just considering you, prompted by what 1612 said, and I remembered you had a wagon D1 and that it never took off. So when that wagon was Alison and Tutu, who are now confirmed town, then I argued to myself, why did not scum jump on that wagon if Michelle is town. However, I already talked myself off of it pretty much, since there were other wagons on town too, like Alison, Nanook and Proto, so scum could've just chose to be on those instead. Hope that makes sense.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:31 pm [VOTE: Michelle] aubergine

i am too tired at this hour for this.

How much margin for error do we have?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:33 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:31 pm The more I think about what Lavender is doing, the less any of it makes any sense to me from a "I want to win the game as a wolf" perspective. That's what concerns me.

Instead, what Michelle is doing today feels very compatible with that. She's okay with the status quo. If Lavender is town and she is a wolf, why wouldn't she be?

I sense no town spark to really break open the game. Complacency.

Do we have the space to go Lav -> Michelle and guarantee that we catch one wolf? It's hard to see them both as V. If Lavender is town, it would put us at F5 with 2 scum, so you'd be in a precarious scenario - but that is not an impossible situation and you'll have a couple of strong townies who've done stuff to clear themselves there. We could win even if we're wrong on Lavender.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:34 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:32 pm I'm on board with a Lav lynch. Reading Lav's posts I don't really buy that he believes the pushes his making. Also, maybe a detail, but I actually really dislike him saying that Cobbler "ran for the hill" around the Tutu reveal, when I'm sure he must've been aware that Cobbler hadn't been posting for a long time already by then. Lav/1612/Speed still makes sense to me. They are all kind of defending each other in a tight spot here. I'm willing to lynch Lav over Speed though.

Look, I agree with you that Lavender's opinions make little sense, but why would he do any of that if he's wolfing here?

I still think he could be a wolf because I haven't even thrown out the pairing of Michelle/Lavender w/w actually, but I'm trying to spend some time in "Lavender is town" world right now because we need to be incredibly cognizant of it now even if we do decide to yeet him.

This kind of just reads like "why would Lav be scummy if he's scum". I don't really see Michelle/Lav as s/s here. But sure, I've seen some weird bussing tactics on Cindy Kate. I'm not really getting that feeling though. Why do you think so?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:36 pm How much margin for error do we have?

Let's see... right now we're at 6v3, so if we misyeet today, and Alison dies, then we're at 4v3 tomorrow. So yeah...

If any two of 1612/Lavender/jeraldo are town, we could very well lose this game with the yeet today. Let's get this right.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:37 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:34 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:32 pm I'm on board with a Lav lynch. Reading Lav's posts I don't really buy that he believes the pushes his making. Also, maybe a detail, but I actually really dislike him saying that Cobbler "ran for the hill" around the Tutu reveal, when I'm sure he must've been aware that Cobbler hadn't been posting for a long time already by then. Lav/1612/Speed still makes sense to me. They are all kind of defending each other in a tight spot here. I'm willing to lynch Lav over Speed though.

Look, I agree with you that Lavender's opinions make little sense, but why would he do any of that if he's wolfing here?

I still think he could be a wolf because I haven't even thrown out the pairing of Michelle/Lavender w/w actually, but I'm trying to spend some time in "Lavender is town" world right now because we need to be incredibly cognizant of it now even if we do decide to yeet him.

This kind of just reads like "why would Lav be scummy if he's scum". I don't really see Michelle/Lav as s/s here. But sure, I've seen some weird bussing tactics on Cindy Kate. I'm not really getting that feeling though. Why do you think so?

I'm trying to consider the gamestate. It doesn't feel right.

I mean, he does push Michelle, but is voting MP, so I guess it could be a thing.

I hope my panic is all for naught, trust me. Trying to make sure we do the right thing.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:38 pm I mean, he does push Michelle, but is voting MP, so I guess it could be a thing.

Actually no, if he was distancing and thinking he'd go down today, wouldn't he rather want to vote Michelle to "do it properly". Yeah, I don't really see it.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:35 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:32 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:49 pm Not to like jump ships here, but I looked back over votes D1. Alison voted Michelle first thing. Tutu voted Michelle later/mid day. But the wagon never really gained traction. So we know both Tutu and Alison is town, so if Michelle is town, is it strange that it didn't gain traction? @Alison What do you think?

why do you think so?

I was just considering you, prompted by what 1612 said, and I remembered you had a wagon D1 and that it never took off. So when that wagon was Alison and Tutu, who are now confirmed town, then I argued to myself, why did not scum jump on that wagon if Michelle is town. However, I already talked myself off of it pretty much, since there were other wagons on town too, like Alison, Nanook and Proto, so scum could've just chose to be on those instead. Hope that makes sense.

I guess so.. honestly is wifom-y to speculate this. And dissapointing to see all day 1 wagons were all villa

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:38 pm I mean, he does push Michelle, but is voting MP, so I guess it could be a thing.

That's what I was thinking... if Lavender is wolfing here and 1612 and jeraldo are both town, then I actually better understand what Lavender is doing today from a "I want to win the game as a wolf" perspective.

Otherwise, if his wolfmates are the other ones in the POE, what the fuck is he doing?

All Day 1 wagons being town is indeed problematic.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:39 pm I hope my panic is all for naught, trust me. Trying to make sure we do the right thing.

Ok, but what is your alternative though. I don't really feel it's worth tinfoiling Urist. I know I'm town. So who are the actual three scum in thread right now?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:38 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:36 pm How much margin for error do we have?

Let's see... right now we're at 6v3, so if we misyeet today, and Alison dies, then we're at 4v3 tomorrow. So yeah...

If any two of 1612/Lavender/jeraldo are town, we could very well lose this game with the yeet today. Let's get this right.

But let's say Lavender is wolfing and 1612 and jerlado are town, okay, MP7. Then who is the team?

Lavender, Michelle, and X? Who's the X? Dizzy or Cobbler? Ughhhh.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:41 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:39 pm I hope my panic is all for naught, trust me. Trying to make sure we do the right thing.

Ok, but what is your alternative though. I don't really feel it's worth tinfoiling Urist. I know I'm town. So who are the actual three scum in thread right now?

Trying to figure that out now, could use some help.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:40 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:38 pm I mean, he does push Michelle, but is voting MP, so I guess it could be a thing.

That's what I was thinking... if Lavender is wolfing here and 1612 and jeraldo are both town, then I actually better understand what Lavender is doing today from a "I want to win the game as a wolf" perspective.

Otherwise, if his wolfmates are the other ones in the POE, what the fuck is he doing?

If I'm wolf and my teammates are in the POE, I pick someone I think I can get misexecuted, push them as hard as possible (and maybe get my teammates to push them also), and try to slip one or two of my team into endgame in the chaos that ensues. I did this with Carotenoid in Space Invaders, sort of.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:41 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:38 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:36 pm How much margin for error do we have?

Let's see... right now we're at 6v3, so if we misyeet today, and Alison dies, then we're at 4v3 tomorrow. So yeah...

If any two of 1612/Lavender/jeraldo are town, we could very well lose this game with the yeet today. Let's get this right.

But let's say Lavender is wolfing and 1612 and jerlado are town, okay, MP7. Then who is the team?

Lavender, Michelle, and X? Who's the X? Dizzy or Cobbler? Ughhhh.

Lavender, Michelle, and Cobbler? Does this make sense? I can't think of any reason it doesn't. Hold on, let me hop into Cobbler's ISO.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:40 pmThat's what I was thinking... if Lavender is wolfing here and 1612 and jeraldo are both town, then I actually better understand what Lavender is doing today from a "I want to win the game as a wolf" perspective.

Otherwise, if his wolfmates are the other ones in the POE, what the fuck is he doing?

I was actually considering the possibility of Lav/you. Cause his accusation of you doesn't make any sense, but he's really adamant about it. And this is where his vote is going. I'm trying not to tinfoil you, but I think that is a possibility. What do you think of that?

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:42 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:40 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:38 pm I mean, he does push Michelle, but is voting MP, so I guess it could be a thing.

That's what I was thinking... if Lavender is wolfing here and 1612 and jeraldo are both town, then I actually better understand what Lavender is doing today from a "I want to win the game as a wolf" perspective.

Otherwise, if his wolfmates are the other ones in the POE, what the fuck is he doing?

If I'm wolf and my teammates are in the POE, I pick someone I think I can get misexecuted, push them as hard as possible (and maybe get my teammates to push them also), and try to slip one or two of my team into endgame in the chaos that ensues. I did this with Carotenoid in Space Invaders, sort of.

Right, and in what universe am I getting misexecuted here?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:41 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:38 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:36 pm How much margin for error do we have?

Let's see... right now we're at 6v3, so if we misyeet today, and Alison dies, then we're at 4v3 tomorrow. So yeah...

If any two of 1612/Lavender/jeraldo are town, we could very well lose this game with the yeet today. Let's get this right.

But let's say Lavender is wolfing and 1612 and jerlado are town, okay, MP7. Then who is the team?

Lavender, Michelle, and X? Who's the X? Dizzy or Cobbler? Ughhhh.

If Lavender is scum and 1612 and jeraldo are town, then I would tend to assume the other two wolves are Cobbler and Urist. That first sentence is a big assumption, but if we take it as the truth, Lav/Cobbler/Urist makes sense.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:43 pm Right, and in what universe am I getting misexecuted here?

Many.

Lots of people have expressed suspicion on you. Your post is right after Dizzy tinfoils you. There were other people that thought you were scummy, too. The people who've been most adamant about defending you are me and Dizzy, and we're both excellent NK targets.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:43 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:40 pmThat's what I was thinking... if Lavender is wolfing here and 1612 and jeraldo are both town, then I actually better understand what Lavender is doing today from a "I want to win the game as a wolf" perspective.

Otherwise, if his wolfmates are the other ones in the POE, what the fuck is he doing?

I was actually considering the possibility of Lav/you. Cause his accusation of you doesn't make any sense, but he's really adamant about it. And this is where his vote is going. I'm trying not to tinfoil you, but I think that is a possibility. What do you think of that?

So you're saying that he's bussing me from your perspective? Hmmm. I guess I can actually see why you might think that since the logic would be similar enough to the reason I'm perceptive to a Michelle/Lavender pairing. Of course, I know that's not true, but from your perspective, I don't think Lavender and I are not strictly partner compatible or something.

Like, I don't really get this exercise in "what if everything is upside down!"

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:44 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:43 pm Right, and in what universe am I getting misexecuted here?

Many.

Lots of people have expressed suspicion on you. Your post is right after Dizzy tinfoils you. There were other people that thought you were scummy, too. The people who've been most adamant about defending you are me and Dizzy, and we're both excellent NK targets.

But also, I suspect the "misexecute" target is actually Michelle. Notice that 1612 and Lavender don't actually ask me to vote MP7 despite thinking you're wolf. They want me to vote Michelle.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:44 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:43 pm Right, and in what universe am I getting misexecuted here?

Many.

Lots of people have expressed suspicion on you. Your post is right after Dizzy tinfoils you. There were other people that thought you were scummy, too. The people who've been most adamant about defending you are me and Dizzy, and we're both excellent NK targets.

It's possible my understanding of the gamestate is skewed then.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:45 pm Like, I don't really get this exercise in "what if everything is upside down!"

Because I want us to win, shhhh.