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Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 9:47 pm
by Seanzie
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 7:05 pm Also, @Bereft can you tldr your mafia experience level, and tell me who you know here and how familiar you are with people?
@Bereft this would help me a lot.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 9:49 pm
by Seanzie
Porscha wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 9:41 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 9:21 pm
Porscha wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 7:20 am also spf I think I can say with some confidence that sean is town here. i've played with evil sean once and I was able to see through it
sean this game has been able to very like... be direct in his 1 on 1s with people. when he wolfed I saw a lot more deflection. I don't think you should be open to other thoughts on it today at the very very least
Can you give me an example of where I've been "direct in his 1 on 1s"?
literally any post you have with mac
I learned from an early age as a wolf that town!Mac and town!JJJ have a harder time finding you if you cast suspicion on them.

I'd prefer a specific example (plz quote a post) from someone who isn't Mac.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 9:53 pm
by Porscha
Porscha wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 9:41 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 9:21 pm
Porscha wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 7:20 am also spf I think I can say with some confidence that sean is town here. i've played with evil sean once and I was able to see through it
sean this game has been able to very like... be direct in his 1 on 1s with people. when he wolfed I saw a lot more deflection. I don't think you should be open to other thoughts on it today at the very very least
Can you give me an example of where I've been "direct in his 1 on 1s"?
literally any post you have with mac
the wolf sean i've seen would not, imo, butt heads with mac either as w/w or as w/t like you have this game
you were much more pliable and less steadfast

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:00 pm
by Bereft
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 9:47 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 7:05 pm Also, @Bereft can you tldr your mafia experience level, and tell me who you know here and how familiar you are with people?
@Bereft this would help me a lot.
With?

I obviously would rather not share who my identity is. But I've played with lucy/Mac/Porscha/SPF, one of whom knows my identity, the others of whom will probably start guessing after this and probably figure out, and I've also played with some others here but not to any extent that I'm going to pretend to a know meta well enough.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:01 pm
by Bereft
you fall in the latter category as well.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:10 pm
by MacDougall
[VOTE: Tutuu] aubergine

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:11 pm
by Bereft
Spxce.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:14 pm
by tutuu
Image

first time ive been voted this game

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:16 pm
by Porscha
Seanzie wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:07 pm
MacDougall wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:52 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:52 pm
lucy wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:29 pm i am oracle, i have no idea why i'm facing so much opposition, what do you guys think about me being openly opposed and not listened to?

is it towny? is it scummy? what purpose does it serve?
I think any one person, even an IC, trying to take the reins of the game into their own hands is extremely bad for threadhealth, wagonomics, and in general gameplay. It creates a gamestate that is extremely easy for wolves to work around and that limits all the townies abilities to do their things.

It is towny to be opposed to a bad strategy. The purpose opposing it serves is to hopefully convince you to realize that what you're asking of the thread is IMO a bad way to play the game that does more harm than good.
stop posting cringe you're making me wish I was blind
Why are you deliberately trying to destroy threadhealth right now?
Seanzie wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:04 pm
MacDougall wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:47 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:43 pm
Porscha wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:12 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:50 pm
Baudib1 wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:44 pm Ok so @Seanzie I guess we would like you to clarify. Do you have mechanical information that indicate Mac and Jack are wolves?
no bro, don't you know that if I did I couldn't say it but hey it isn't the case anyway, so sit down and just drown in the fact that "Mac and Jack ate a shortstack of flapjacks in wolf chat" is a fact that I deduced by being a sleuth, reading the thread, using my head. No cards jarred these facts that I spread.
Are you able to elaborate on what lead you to that conclusion then pls
This post:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:56 pm
tutuu wrote: Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:52 pm If alison is mafia i feel like 2 or maybe 3 of the people vehemently pushing her are also mafia

Looking at jack and sig

A possible explanation for the behavior "alison maf, i aint moving, nu-uh, nothing else exists i put my hands on my ears lalalalala" is an orchestrated bus, maybe alison has exams or something she always has exams :P

(I still have an unconfident townread on her, just exploring an option)
Aww darn you got me but I guess I’ll double down and hope for the best. Maybe reverse psychology will keep you from yeeting Alison, who is wolves with me.

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
Is a wolf who is saying "Haha, you're pairing me with a townie, you think you've caught me but you're right for the wrong reasons and it will fall apart when Alison flips". Jack HAS been got, just not for the reasons Tutuu is putting out.

I don't remember the specifics behind Mac, but I'm sure they were breathtakingly convincing, and could stand alone without considering that Mac is eating villagers for breakfast left and right.
Seanzie how the fucking fuck can you say that last sentence. I've literally killed ONE WOLFY SLANKER to try to save the town that HALF THE GAME KILLED. Fucking fuck fucker.
You were one of the most influential voices pushing Alison D2.
Seanzie wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:59 pm
MacDougall wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:46 pm D1

Alison: 6
falcon45ca
fingersplints
Jackofhearts2005
Neon
Roxy
sig

Day 2

Alison
6
40%
Voters: falcon45ca, Neon, Jackofhearts2005, tutuu, sig, Dennis

I wish to kill sig and Falcon badly.
I was also on Alison at EoD1.

Also, you flipflopped on Alison D2.
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:17 am
MacDougall wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:15 am
falcon45ca wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:10 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:07 pm
MacDougall wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:52 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:52 pm
lucy wrote: Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:29 pm i am oracle, i have no idea why i'm facing so much opposition, what do you guys think about me being openly opposed and not listened to?

is it towny? is it scummy? what purpose does it serve?
I think any one person, even an IC, trying to take the reins of the game into their own hands is extremely bad for threadhealth, wagonomics, and in general gameplay. It creates a gamestate that is extremely easy for wolves to work around and that limits all the townies abilities to do their things.

It is towny to be opposed to a bad strategy. The purpose opposing it serves is to hopefully convince you to realize that what you're asking of the thread is IMO a bad way to play the game that does more harm than good.
stop posting cringe you're making me wish I was blind
Why are you deliberately trying to destroy threadhealth right now?
Well, I can think of one reason
I am town.

I was in lockstep with Baudib1 and Alison on most matters.

I am clearly town.

Desist throwing immediately.
[VOTE: Mac] aubergine
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:55 am
MacDougall wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:47 am
falcon45ca wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:36 am
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:35 am I really think this game makes a lot more sense if Mac is wolf, and I hope y'all wake up to the fact that if your PoE is all people who are kinda polarized, that doesn't really fit with how the game has gone.
Fuck yes it does.
Okay so I'm mafia who ... decided to force create a wagon on the least threatening town on day 1 in ah attempt to save my biggest threat.

This is your idea of "makes sense"?

How about...

"Some derpy town decided Alison was mafia and then the mafia capitalised on it. Then Mac tried to push his wolfread as the counter and was wrong. Then Mac tinfoiled day 2 for about 30 mins and then the mafia killed Alison while they had a chance after Mac stopped tinfoiling."

One of these is the literal demonstrable reality we live in.

My working theory is that actually you never intended FS to go over, not expecting Lucy's involvement. You wanted to wash your hands of mostly town wagons, make sure you weren't on one that flipped, instead on a small wagon that wouldn't really ever been looked at closely.
MacDougall wrote: Fri Jan 06, 2023 8:03 pm
sig wrote: Fri Jan 06, 2023 7:59 pm
MacDougall wrote: Fri Jan 06, 2023 7:58 pm @RondoDimBuckle I am ignoring you because your questions, and choices confuse me. I don't trust you atm.
You’re on the same wagon as him though?

I do agree with this the level of hypothetical they want makes no sense
I voted Fingersplints first, a whole bunch of people joined me including Rondo who shouted out a vote on me in the thread before silent voting Fingersplints with me.

This is a really bad point.
You already start trying to wash your hands of the new big town wagon.
MacDougall wrote: Fri Jan 06, 2023 8:14 pm Legacy

Upper POE -

Rondo/Lucy (I really don't get how the non Oracle between them makes sense as town)
Jack/Baudib1 (different)

Lower POE -

Sig
Creature
Fingersplints

If Alison survives today and a town elimination occurs add Alison to my upper POE.
And your "30 minute tinfoil" was actually set up on D1, and you can say it is a "30 minute tinfoil", but it is hard to tell how sincere this is since it started immediately at SoD2 and was not revoted until Alison was elimed.
must I go on

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:18 pm
by Porscha
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:45 am
tutuu wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:39 am
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:35 am I really think this game makes a lot more sense if Mac is wolf, and I hope y'all wake up to the fact that if your PoE is all people who are kinda polarized, that doesn't really fit with how the game has gone.
this is essentially day 2

we have had 1 chop on a slanker - finger. the other chops were artificial

and zero meaningful night kills - no n1, and randed n2

if this was a natural mafia game and mac was alive for so long - day 3, with no dead wolves - sure

but this isnt a natural game, iss a role madness with crazy stuff impacting flips, take it into account plx

our numbers are bad coz i think the setup is a tad scumsided (we might lose 2 chops to godfather immunity and a 1-shot chop-prevention card) and/or we suck but this is still the early game
It isn't just about numbers. Mac has almost exclusively gone after LHF in wolfy ways and our ship has felt rudderless, even through most of D1.

The fact that Mac is trying to pretend like he doesn't have blood on his hands from the Alison wagon also looks bad IMO. If town!Mac just didn't realize the moon card would have been played and not realized how his D2 play would be taken advantage of, I think he'd own up to it and move on. Instead when I've pushed him about it, he pretends like it didn't happen and doesn't engage with the idea.

He's also tried to deflect me in ways that remind me of how he deflected me in GoC2021.
sean I see a lot of the skeptic in you in this post and I think that is a strong town indicator for you

however,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

I also think mac's perspective of how the alison / counterwagon argument happened is from a towny perspective and this is because I think a wolf mac would actually be much likelier to acknowledge something he had done as wolfy. I think wolf mac would "own up to it and move on" more than a town mac ever would. it's towny entitlement and this is why I think you're both town

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:20 pm
by falcon45ca
[VOTE: Roxy] aubergine

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:24 pm
by Seanzie
Bereft wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:00 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 9:47 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 7:05 pm Also, @Bereft can you tldr your mafia experience level, and tell me who you know here and how familiar you are with people?
@Bereft this would help me a lot.
With?

I obviously would rather not share who my identity is. But I've played with lucy/Mac/Porscha/SPF, one of whom knows my identity, the others of whom will probably start guessing after this and probably figure out, and I've also played with some others here but not to any extent that I'm going to pretend to a know meta well enough.
With understanding you.

Alts are (to my knowledge) extremely rare at TS (and honestly I thought there was a rule against it, but I am probably wrong since I cannot find one on the site), so I haven't played in many games with them, but sure, if you want to not share your identity, you're allowed to play how you want. In turn, I am allowed to be skeptical of your meta knowledge on players/what you are doing with said meta knowledge. I'd like to see a game with you and Mac where Mac was polarized to back up the claim's you've made.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:28 pm
by MacDougall
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:45 am
tutuu wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:39 am
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:35 am I really think this game makes a lot more sense if Mac is wolf, and I hope y'all wake up to the fact that if your PoE is all people who are kinda polarized, that doesn't really fit with how the game has gone.
this is essentially day 2

we have had 1 chop on a slanker - finger. the other chops were artificial

and zero meaningful night kills - no n1, and randed n2

if this was a natural mafia game and mac was alive for so long - day 3, with no dead wolves - sure

but this isnt a natural game, iss a role madness with crazy stuff impacting flips, take it into account plx

our numbers are bad coz i think the setup is a tad scumsided (we might lose 2 chops to godfather immunity and a 1-shot chop-prevention card) and/or we suck but this is still the early game
It isn't just about numbers. Mac has almost exclusively gone after LHF in wolfy ways and our ship has felt rudderless, even through most of D1.

The fact that Mac is trying to pretend like he doesn't have blood on his hands from the Alison wagon also looks bad IMO. If town!Mac just didn't realize the moon card would have been played and not realized how his D2 play would be taken advantage of, I think he'd own up to it and move on. Instead when I've pushed him about it, he pretends like it didn't happen and doesn't engage with the idea.

He's also tried to deflect me in ways that remind me of how he deflected me in GoC2021.
I have gone after the scummy players in this game. The same players that the town such as Alison, Baudib1 and probably Bereft have. Your obsession with the idea that they are LHF is weird. Who are these so called LHF that I've exclusively gone after. I want names. I want you to tell me how they are LHF, how LHF =/= mafia. If you want to say Fingersplints I'll give you 7 other names that voted FIngersplints. If you want to hang me because I miscued on a Fingersplints counterwagon to try to save Alison on day 1, then that's again, absurd. You are not attempting to read motivation at all. What is the mafia motivation for me to do that when the wagons at the time I did it were tvt Alison v Baudib1. It makes no sense. I clearly was trying to do what I felt was right for the town.

You say the gamestate is rudderless. You have been inhibiting my influence with this constant push. You are causing my influence to be a certain way and then scumreading me for something of your own cause.

I am not trying to pretend anything. I already literally said that sussing me for day 2 is fine. Literally. You are at a point where you're so confirmation biased that you are not even reading posts. You're just living in a fantasy world where you've caught the big Mac and are a hero and it's clouding everything about your judgement towards me, giving the mafia a free pass to pocketing me and essentially making this day pointless.

I am not posting again today.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:30 pm
by RondoDimBuckle
I call shenanigans on Mac not posting again today.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:32 pm
by tutuu
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:30 pm I call shenanigans on Mac not posting again today.
cmon friends stop poking him leave him alone he's clearly very upset

iss chill

we got like 2 obvious wolves lined up for today and tomorrow

it'll get better (trust)

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:35 pm
by RondoDimBuckle
tutuu wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:32 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:30 pm I call shenanigans on Mac not posting again today.
cmon friends stop poking him leave him alone he's clearly very upset

iss chill

we got like 2 obvious wolves lined up for today and tomorrow

it'll get better (trust)
I couldnt help it. Because I know he is going to post again today and I find it amusing that he says he wont.

If Roxy flips wolf and Sig then we guuchi

Also I want to say multiple times when I have been catching up and reading you I have been cackling like a witch at some things youve said. Also you're reading of me is hilarious if I ignore any possible TMI pings I am getting.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:36 pm
by Seanzie
MacDougall wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:28 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:45 am
tutuu wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:39 am
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:35 am I really think this game makes a lot more sense if Mac is wolf, and I hope y'all wake up to the fact that if your PoE is all people who are kinda polarized, that doesn't really fit with how the game has gone.
this is essentially day 2

we have had 1 chop on a slanker - finger. the other chops were artificial

and zero meaningful night kills - no n1, and randed n2

if this was a natural mafia game and mac was alive for so long - day 3, with no dead wolves - sure

but this isnt a natural game, iss a role madness with crazy stuff impacting flips, take it into account plx

our numbers are bad coz i think the setup is a tad scumsided (we might lose 2 chops to godfather immunity and a 1-shot chop-prevention card) and/or we suck but this is still the early game
It isn't just about numbers. Mac has almost exclusively gone after LHF in wolfy ways and our ship has felt rudderless, even through most of D1.

The fact that Mac is trying to pretend like he doesn't have blood on his hands from the Alison wagon also looks bad IMO. If town!Mac just didn't realize the moon card would have been played and not realized how his D2 play would be taken advantage of, I think he'd own up to it and move on. Instead when I've pushed him about it, he pretends like it didn't happen and doesn't engage with the idea.

He's also tried to deflect me in ways that remind me of how he deflected me in GoC2021.
I have gone after the scummy players in this game. The same players that the town such as Alison, Baudib1 and probably Bereft have. Your obsession with the idea that they are LHF is weird. Who are these so called LHF that I've exclusively gone after. I want names. I want you to tell me how they are LHF, how LHF =/= mafia. If you want to say Fingersplints I'll give you 7 other names that voted FIngersplints. If you want to hang me because I miscued on a Fingersplints counterwagon to try to save Alison on day 1, then that's again, absurd. You are not attempting to read motivation at all. What is the mafia motivation for me to do that when the wagons at the time I did it were tvt Alison v Baudib1. It makes no sense. I clearly was trying to do what I felt was right for the town.

You say the gamestate is rudderless. You have been inhibiting my influence with this constant push. You are causing my influence to be a certain way and then scumreading me for something of your own cause.

I am not trying to pretend anything. I already literally said that sussing me for day 2 is fine. Literally. You are at a point where you're so confirmation biased that you are not even reading posts. You're just living in a fantasy world where you've caught the big Mac and are a hero and it's clouding everything about your judgement towards me, giving the mafia a free pass to pocketing me and essentially making this day pointless.

I am not posting again today.
What do you think of SPF's unexplained super strong townread on you? I made a big post about it, and I explored this originally because I thought you were wolf and I wanted to consider Mac/SPF, but I saw at least one world with an SPF/Mac w/t team. I'd like to hear your response to that.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:42 pm
by RondoDimBuckle
I think we should flash wagon dennis or Sabi and see what happens

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:42 pm
by Seanzie
tutuu wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:32 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:30 pm I call shenanigans on Mac not posting again today.
cmon friends stop poking him leave him alone he's clearly very upset

iss chill

we got like 2 obvious wolves lined up for today and tomorrow

it'll get better (trust)
Can you let me know who the 2 obvious wolves are?

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:44 pm
by Dennis
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:42 pm I think we should flash wagon dennis or Sabi and see what happens
I would be upset probably

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:45 pm
by staypositivefriend
i think bereft is most likely town because:

-the read feels a tad bit outdated now, but i think the way that he engaged me early into the game came from a town indicative thought process (ie: bereft projecting his view of the game on to me, then interrogating me while purporting to rep a secret townread on me). there was a level of complexity to the way he tried to figure out my alignment that made me believe he was putting real thought into solving

-he is consistently pointing out the same things that i’m noticing before i say them, which is admittedly an easier tell for a wolf to fake, but it stands out to me that even though he is being reserved with the evaluations that he chooses to make, the evaluations tend to specifically align with stuff that i’m already thinking about. for example, him pointing out that the way sig cast suspicion onto what i could call the ~towncore~ on #735 was wolf indicative, or him pointing out that it was scummy for porsche to say she wanted to look further into baud abd bereft

i also want to push back on the implication that seanzie made in his wallpost that i should be more cautious about reading bereft just because he is a good/experienced player who might be a really strong wolf. i don’t believe in raising the level of towniness for strong players because that is how you end up POEing the strong players every single game. it is much more interesting to try your hardest to read the strong players and then learn how to read them better in the future if you’re wrong. at any rat

as for creature, i do maintain the concerns about him that:

-he is forming conclusions too quickly
-his conclusions are too confident

and i dont want to imply that it’s not possible for creature to be confident as town, but reading through how he was constantly doubting himself and changing his mind and projecting uncertainty as town in da bois game vs this game where he has a VERY well defined and clear POE with solid scumreads makes it hard for me to shake the feeling that he might just be playing from a position of TMI

i think even creature saying “im not going to touch mac or SPF for a while” earlier today is out of character for him, because this is the exact phase in the game where i aqnticipate that creature, as town, would start to get paranoid of me or mac for not having any plets. in the fact, the post creature just made a bit ago where he said i might be mafia is the closest thing he has done today that aligns with my understanding of creature’s towngame

so yeah idk, i still do maintain the general feeling that creature might Just Be Mafia, especially as the number of people that im townreading is increasing and my POE is starting to dwindle, but i also acknowledge that i’m having a hard time letting go of this read because i want to have been right aout my push on him on d1 tbh

i know that it’s theoretically possible for someone in their 3rd mafia game to just play really well, but im inclined to think that dennis would struggle to fake the level of comfort he has consistently projected if he was mafia in a playerlist like this

i also thought it was towny that he responded to roxy pushing on him by saying “roxy’s case on me makes sense” because i think the reaction of inexeprienced wolves tends to be more aggressive instead of acknowledging that the person pushing on u has a point. i also think that the way he randomly became self-aware about his lack of read on creature and tried to address it indicates to me that he is putting real thought into his reads

so yeah i think the most simple explanation is that he’s proly just town

i perceive the following to be true about jack:

1.he consistently projected an extremely confident and assertive worldview where alison was his primary scumread
2. his reasoning for scumreading alison was primarily based on stuff that is more personality-indicative for her than alignment-indicative for her, which concerns me because my understanding is that jack knows alison very well
3. even if i accept that jack’s reasoning for scumreading alison was valid, his confidence about his read being correct was not proportional to his solving. the reasoning that he outlined, even if taken at face value, does not seem like it logically concludes to a worldview of: “alison is outed mafia and she must die by any means necessary”
4. jack’s worldview outside of alison was fairly narrow and he did not really speak at length about many other players at all
baud, who i perceive to be a good scumhunter, was extremely confident about jack being mafia
5. in spite of being in the position of being widely POE’d, jack has not seriously been in contention for the elimination today (at least that’s my perception - there was a wagon on him at the start of the day but then it dissipated rather quickly)

now, on the other hand, it’s true that:

1. there is not really an obvious or coherent scum strategy behind jack playing the way that he did as mafia. he would be guaranteed to look very bad whenever alison flipped, or guaranteed to draw alison’s ire to an extent that alison would get him eliminated
2. his posts today are townier than the rest of his ISO, at least on a tonal level

so, looking through these reasons……i kind of think that jack just might be mafia? i honestly need someone to talk me down from why. why should i not be scumreading jack right now? what am i missing?

i don’t really believe that the township from kate that alison pointed out is legitimate or good reasoning to read into. i am ambivalent about kate and sabi’s posts beyond that. that said, i am going out of my way to give sabi space today because i know that:

1. they tend to struggle and become overly fixated on pressure when ppl push on them
2. they are extremely good at projecting town when they get comfortable in the gamestate

so i think the best way to read sabi rn is to let them do their thing for a while and then revisit if they arent as towny if they are capable of being

im really really tired so im going to rush the rest of this post

i don’t really townread porscha yet and the main thing holding me back is mac claiming that he thinks she’s locktown

i lean town on rondo for various reasons, the main one actually which revolves around the way that he played around the PR claims on d1 (dont think that there is an obvious wolf incentive or motivation for him to draw attention to himself like that in the way that he did) and the fact that i perceive him as one of the most prominent players in the game rn actively trying to solve the game (like his progression on bereft today)

falcon idk

wilgy idk

^dont let me get away with a null read on these two players past today please because they feel important to solve i just havent really processed many of their posts and theyve kinda flown past me

roxy can be mafia whatever

i townread seanzie even more for the stuff he posted about me/mac/bereft over the last page

i still townread mac

sig is scum probably. his posts actively ping me the most out of everyone who has posted today and he feels overly fixated on how the rest of the thread of perceiving him and his perspectives often feel like they are made wiith the specific intent to bring paranoia into the thread

tutuu is town but if im misreading someone in my stronger townreads then it’s probably her bcuz i am mostly just clearing her off of passion/energy/depth of thought and i dont really have any specific reasons to feel good about her in the same way that i do mac/bereft/etc

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:47 pm
by staypositivefriend
lucy
mac
bereft
seanzie
tutuu
rondo
dennis
falcon
wilgy
porscha
sabi
creature
roxy
sig
jack

a very GTH sorting of the game from towniest to scummiest

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:48 pm
by staypositivefriend
i would appreciate thoughts about my read on jack in particular

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:48 pm
by Seanzie
[VOTE: SPF] aubergine

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:48 pm
by staypositivefriend
also i think my order of the bottom 3 would actually be sig > roxy > jack but i put jack at the bottom in a moment of passion

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:48 pm
by staypositivefriend
why

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:50 pm
by Seanzie
staypositivefriend wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:48 pm why
Because I think you're a wolf.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:53 pm
by Seanzie
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:50 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:48 pm why
Because I think you're a wolf.
I am quite looking forward to @staypositivefriend's response.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:55 pm
by Seanzie
It's going to be glorious. She's going to be all like "why?" and I'm going to be all like "well, then, we're at an impasse, aren't we?". I'm excited.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:56 pm
by staypositivefriend
seanzie i think it's valid to say that i haven't tried particularly hard to explain why i townread mac in this game or how i'm getting a read on him general. i guess i want to clarify that:

A. i perceive mac to be one of the easiest players to read in this game. i have been horribly wrong about mac quite recently but broadly speaking i am usually able to tell the difference between his alignment somewhat easily and i have also been able to correctly scumread him every time he has randed wolf against me (which tbf, i think is only like twice)

the fact that i feel confident about my ability to read mac relative to the rest of this playerlist means that i have subsquently put less effort into explaining my thoughts about him, but in short:

-mac has consistently shifted and flip-flopped and changed his worldview, even at points when it would not be strategically beneficial for him to do so. for example, why does wolf!mac suddenly shift his positioning on alison yesterday and call alison mafia when he was previously positioned as someone defending alison? alison likely would have gone down without his influence anyway, so it makes more sense for mac!wolf to stick to defending alison to look good from her flipping town instead of making himself look bad by calling alison mafia right before she died

-mac as town is extremely unconfident about his ability to read me and also tends to scumread me for breathing. this aligns with mac insisting that his legacy read on me should NOT be used for me to defend myself, with him randomly voting me and calling me mafia yesterday, with him grilling me about specific stuff (ie: "why can't seanzie just be right?"). this is theoretically possible for mac to fake as a wolf but he has treated me in a way that aligns with the way i would expect him to be treating me as town

-i think that mac struggles to make some of the posts he has made today as a wolf, including his general alienation from the gamestate and the way that he lost his temper earlier

yeah idk i just think he's town. i might not be able to explain it more coherently than that. anything else i have to say was already said by bereft

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:56 pm
by staypositivefriend
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:50 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:48 pm why
Because I think you're a wolf.
cool

can u give me ur thoughts on any of the reads i just posted? what do u think of my thoughts on jack?

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:59 pm
by tutuu
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:35 pm
tutuu wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:32 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:30 pm I call shenanigans on Mac not posting again today.
cmon friends stop poking him leave him alone he's clearly very upset

iss chill

we got like 2 obvious wolves lined up for today and tomorrow

it'll get better (trust)
I couldnt help it. Because I know he is going to post again today and I find it amusing that he says he wont.

If Roxy flips wolf and Sig then we guuchi

Also I want to say multiple times when I have been catching up and reading you I have been cackling like a witch at some things youve said. Also you're reading of me is hilarious if I ignore any possible TMI pings I am getting.
😏

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:59 pm
by tutuu
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:42 pm
tutuu wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:32 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:30 pm I call shenanigans on Mac not posting again today.
cmon friends stop poking him leave him alone he's clearly very upset

iss chill

we got like 2 obvious wolves lined up for today and tomorrow

it'll get better (trust)
Can you let me know who the 2 obvious wolves are?
Roxy sig

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:00 pm
by staypositivefriend
MacDougall wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:28 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:45 am
tutuu wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:39 am
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:35 am I really think this game makes a lot more sense if Mac is wolf, and I hope y'all wake up to the fact that if your PoE is all people who are kinda polarized, that doesn't really fit with how the game has gone.
this is essentially day 2

we have had 1 chop on a slanker - finger. the other chops were artificial

and zero meaningful night kills - no n1, and randed n2

if this was a natural mafia game and mac was alive for so long - day 3, with no dead wolves - sure

but this isnt a natural game, iss a role madness with crazy stuff impacting flips, take it into account plx

our numbers are bad coz i think the setup is a tad scumsided (we might lose 2 chops to godfather immunity and a 1-shot chop-prevention card) and/or we suck but this is still the early game
It isn't just about numbers. Mac has almost exclusively gone after LHF in wolfy ways and our ship has felt rudderless, even through most of D1.

The fact that Mac is trying to pretend like he doesn't have blood on his hands from the Alison wagon also looks bad IMO. If town!Mac just didn't realize the moon card would have been played and not realized how his D2 play would be taken advantage of, I think he'd own up to it and move on. Instead when I've pushed him about it, he pretends like it didn't happen and doesn't engage with the idea.

He's also tried to deflect me in ways that remind me of how he deflected me in GoC2021.
I have gone after the scummy players in this game. The same players that the town such as Alison, Baudib1 and probably Bereft have. Your obsession with the idea that they are LHF is weird. Who are these so called LHF that I've exclusively gone after. I want names. I want you to tell me how they are LHF, how LHF =/= mafia. If you want to say Fingersplints I'll give you 7 other names that voted FIngersplints. If you want to hang me because I miscued on a Fingersplints counterwagon to try to save Alison on day 1, then that's again, absurd. You are not attempting to read motivation at all. What is the mafia motivation for me to do that when the wagons at the time I did it were tvt Alison v Baudib1. It makes no sense. I clearly was trying to do what I felt was right for the town.

You say the gamestate is rudderless. You have been inhibiting my influence with this constant push. You are causing my influence to be a certain way and then scumreading me for something of your own cause.

I am not trying to pretend anything. I already literally said that sussing me for day 2 is fine. Literally. You are at a point where you're so confirmation biased that you are not even reading posts. You're just living in a fantasy world where you've caught the big Mac and are a hero and it's clouding everything about your judgement towards me, giving the mafia a free pass to pocketing me and essentially making this day pointless.

I am not posting again today.
also i dont think this is how mac reacts to pressure as a wolf in most worlds

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:03 pm
by falcon45ca
staypositivefriend wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:56 pm seanzie i think it's valid to say that i haven't tried particularly hard to explain why i townread mac in this game or how i'm getting a read on him general. i guess i want to clarify that:

A. i perceive mac to be one of the easiest players to read in this game. i have been horribly wrong about mac quite recently but broadly speaking i am usually able to tell the difference between his alignment somewhat easily and i have also been able to correctly scumread him every time he has randed wolf against me (which tbf, i think is only like twice)

the fact that i feel confident about my ability to read mac relative to the rest of this playerlist means that i have subsquently put less effort into explaining my thoughts about him, but in short:

-mac has consistently shifted and flip-flopped and changed his worldview, even at points when it would not be strategically beneficial for him to do so. for example, why does wolf!mac suddenly shift his positioning on alison yesterday and call alison mafia when he was previously positioned as someone defending alison? alison likely would have gone down without his influence anyway, so it makes more sense for mac!wolf to stick to defending alison to look good from her flipping town instead of making himself look bad by calling alison mafia right before she died

-mac as town is extremely unconfident about his ability to read me and also tends to scumread me for breathing. this aligns with mac insisting that his legacy read on me should NOT be used for me to defend myself, with him randomly voting me and calling me mafia yesterday, with him grilling me about specific stuff (ie: "why can't seanzie just be right?"). this is theoretically possible for mac to fake as a wolf but he has treated me in a way that aligns with the way i would expect him to be treating me as town

-i think that mac struggles to make some of the posts he has made today as a wolf, including his general alienation from the gamestate and the way that he lost his temper earlier

yeah idk i just think he's town. i might not be able to explain it more coherently than that. anything else i have to say was already said by bereft
Kinda sounds like Maf appeasement here tbh

[VOTE: spf] aubergine

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:04 pm
by staypositivefriend
that's cool i love it when people vote for me without talking to me or responding to anything i say

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:04 pm
by staypositivefriend
this is a great game with solid communication and im fully enjoying myself

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:10 pm
by RondoDimBuckle
@lucy Any good information since SOD?

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:11 pm
by sig
So here’s the thing I’m not building a case right now. But, we’re in 1 of 2 scenarios

1: Town is playing an extremely stupid game with almost no logic behind it.

2: Mafia are essentially leading the game with maybe a low key player or two onboard.

I’m thinking 2 I think mafia used the night card to get Allison yanked very early into the day so they could then “follow her legacy reads” for the next few phases. This’ll cause both me and Roxy to be voted off eliminated two more civs during the day + 2 night kills and they’ll get away with it due to bad town game play and general mehness.

So I’m leaning toward Mac being civ his frustration right now doesn’t seem to be coming from a place of mafia, I’d also say Roxy is a civ since mafia roxy wouldn’t storm off like that.

I’m very much thinking TuuTuu is mafia. She’s active she’s around and she’s even pushing votes but doing very little in the splash making department. She’s also heavily pushing the plan ti follow Alison legacy.

Also on that note one of Allison legacy reads of mafia was Neon who alreayd flipped civ so why are we even thinking about letting her decide the wagons from the grave! This is extra true when you consider a card was played to remove her and we’ve got no clue what alignment played it

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:12 pm
by sig
I’m also not gonna vote Roxy to save myself since again I’m not seeing her being mafia.

I’ll probably attempt a quick ISO of a few people tomorrow but it’ll depend on work.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:12 pm
by Seanzie
staypositivefriend wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:04 pm this is a great game with solid communication and im fully enjoying myself
I also usually enjoy myself when I have no more than two votes in 16 players. Sometime I even enjoy myself with 3+ votes.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:13 pm
by robyn
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:10 pm @lucy Any good information since SOD?
nothing i haven't said, i'm at page 14 on my reread and it's very interesting

@staypositivefriend what are your more detailed reads on tutuu/wigly/mac

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:13 pm
by staypositivefriend
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:12 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:04 pm this is a great game with solid communication and im fully enjoying myself
I also usually enjoy myself when I have no more than two votes in 16 players. Sometime I even enjoy myself with 3+ votes.
can you respond to a single thing that i said on this page or do u just not want to play the game with me rn

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:14 pm
by staypositivefriend
also i find it extremely difficult to believe that falcon saying that me taking a few paragraphs to explain my townread on mac to seanzie after seanzie expressed a lot of concern about my read on mac being shallow constitutes "wolfy appeasement". that's a really really bad post

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:15 pm
by RondoDimBuckle
sig wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:12 pm I’m also not gonna vote Roxy to save myself since again I’m not seeing her being mafia.

I’ll probably attempt a quick ISO of a few people tomorrow but it’ll depend on work.
who is the mafia team? If you are town you are in a good spot to find them

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:18 pm
by RondoDimBuckle
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:12 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:04 pm this is a great game with solid communication and im fully enjoying myself
I also usually enjoy myself when I have no more than two votes in 16 players. Sometime I even enjoy myself with 3+ votes.
Im gonna be honest I am in the same box as you. I enjoy the game so far its fun but its different being IC to having people vote you. In a 20 player list I enjoy having anywhere upwards of 8 votes, it helps me feel alive.

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:20 pm
by Seanzie
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:18 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:12 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:04 pm this is a great game with solid communication and im fully enjoying myself
I also usually enjoy myself when I have no more than two votes in 16 players. Sometime I even enjoy myself with 3+ votes.
Im gonna be honest I am in the same box as you. I enjoy the game so far its fun but its different being IC to having people vote you. In a 20 player list I enjoy having anywhere upwards of 8 votes, it helps me feel alive.
Flame fanner. [VOTE: Rondo] aubergine

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:20 pm
by staypositivefriend
my frustration right now is less about being voted and more about what i perceive as a general lack of communication, which is an issue that extends beyond my slot. i am cranky and tired right now so i should probably stop posting until i get some sleep

that said i would appreciate if anyone who is around can read through the wallpost i made earlier on this page and give me any thoughts they have. i would find it helpful for my own solving rn

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:22 pm
by RondoDimBuckle
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:20 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:18 pm
Seanzie wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:12 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:04 pm this is a great game with solid communication and im fully enjoying myself
I also usually enjoy myself when I have no more than two votes in 16 players. Sometime I even enjoy myself with 3+ votes.
Im gonna be honest I am in the same box as you. I enjoy the game so far its fun but its different being IC to having people vote you. In a 20 player list I enjoy having anywhere upwards of 8 votes, it helps me feel alive.
Flame fanner. [VOTE: Rondo] aubergine
Oh Mr Vanderbelt! I do declare! *fans self excitedly*

Spoiler: show
I was talking directly to you and not to spf and sharing an enjoyment of being voted but if thats how you read it lol

Re: Cartomancy [Day 3]

Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:26 pm
by RondoDimBuckle
staypositivefriend wrote: Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:20 pm my frustration right now is less about being voted and more about what i perceive as a general lack of communication, which is an issue that extends beyond my slot. i am cranky and tired right now so i should probably stop posting until i get some sleep

that said i would appreciate if anyone who is around can read through the wallpost i made earlier on this page and give me any thoughts they have. i would find it helpful for my own solving rn
Your wall posts are an eyesore for me because there is a lack of formatting and I am at work and I dont really want to get into it. Hence me writing small little responses and not massive wall posts