The Syndicate

Hmm, sorry Jonathan.

Damn. Sorry, Jonathan.

I missed another vote. I blame the holiday weekend this time. I was out for most of the day. I had a great day other than missing this vote.

I'm an awful replacement

Well it looks like 70% of the players (including one who isn't playing ) voted for Jonathan.
I know it's easy for me to jump in and say this, but I actually had some really good vibes from Jonathan (especially after I saw who the player was) I don't know who I would have voted for currently.

Well that sucks

Balaam wrote:DAY 1 RESULTS:

1. SAMUEL (Paul)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
2. SAMUEL (Samson)<---voter = civvie
3. LOT (Gideon)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
4. UZZIAH (Pilate)
5. REBECCA (Rachel)
6. PAUL (Martha)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
7. BARNABAS (Stephen)
8. UZZIAH (Job) <---voter = civvie
9. SAMSON (Mordecai)
10. SAMSON (Mary Mag)<---voter = civvie
11. ABSALOM (Cain)<---voter = civvie
12. CAIN (Deborah)
13. CAIN (Absalom)
14. SAMSON (Isaac)
15. SAMSON (Jacob)
16. JEPHTHA (Rebecca)
17. ABSALOM (Malchus)
18. SAMSON (Jonathan)<---voter = civvie
19. MARY MAG (Jonah)
20. SAMSON (Belshazzar)
21. SAMSON (Samuel)
22. CAIN (Uzziah)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
23. JEPHTHAH (Lot)
24. PAUL (Nicodemus)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
25. CAIN (Ruth)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
26. GIDEON (Hagar)<---voter was the civvie smited after our first 3 civ stonings
27. MARY MAG (Jephthah)<---voter = civvie
28. UZZIAH (Rahab)
29. CAIN (Balaam)

Not Voting: Barnabas, Bathsheba, Esther, Judas, Lazarus

Balaam wrote:Day 2 Results:

1. JOB (Uzziah)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
2. UZZIAH (Job)<---voter = civvie
3. JOB (Rachel)
4. CAIN (Paul)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
5. CAIN (Absalom)
6. CAIN (Belshazzar)
7. CAIN (Deborah)
8. CAIN (Malchus)
9. UZZIAH (Lot)
10. CAIN (Rahab)
11. STEPHEN (Stephen)
12. CAIN (Balaam)
13. JEPHTHAH (Rebecca)
14. ABSALOM (Lazarus)
15. UZZIAH (Jonathan)<---voter = civvie
16. CAIN (Bathsheba)

Not Voting: Barnabas (2), Cain, Esther (2), Gideon, Hagar, Isaac, Jacob, Jephthah, Jonah, Judah (2), Mary Mag, Mordecai, Nicodemus, Pilate, Ruth, Samuel

Balaam wrote:DAY 3 Results:

1. UZZIAH (Job)<---voter = civvie
2. JOB (Uzziah)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
3. RACHEL (Lot)
4. RACHEL (Mary Mag)<---voter = civvie
5. UZZIAH (Nicodemus)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
6. LAZARUS (Mordecai)
7. JOB (Isaac)
8. RAHAB (Jonah)
9. UZZIAH (Absalom)
10. MARY MAG (Rebecca)
11. LAZARUS (Jonathan)<---voter = civvie
12. LAZARUS (Gideon)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
13. MARY MAG (Jacob)
14. MARY MAG (Belshazzar)
15. MARY MAG (Jephthah)<---voter = civvie
16. MARY MAG (Deborah)
17. JOB (Rachel)
18. JOB (Esther)
19. ABSALOM (Lazarus)
20. UZZIAH (Rahab)
21. MARY MAG (Ruth)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
22. MARY MAG (Balaam)

Day 3 Not Voting: Barnabas (3), Bathsheba (2), Hagar (2), Judah (3), Malchus, Pilate (2), Samuel (2), Stephen

Balaam wrote:DAY 4 Results:

1. RACHEL (Pilate)
2. JOB (Uzziah)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
3. BALAAM (Absalom)
4. BALAAM (Nicodemus)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
5. ABSALOM (Lazarus)
6. JOB (Rachel)
7. BALAAM (Rebecca)
8. JOB (Stephen)
9. JOB (Jonah)
10. JOB (Samuel)
11. LAZARUS (Mordecai)
12. JOB (Balaam)
13. UZZIAH (Ruth)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
14. LAZARUS (Rahab)
15. RACHEL (Job)<---voter = civvie
16. BALAAM (Jephthah)<---voter = civvie
17. JOB (Esther)
18. JOB (Jonathan)<---voter = civvie
19. BALAAM (Judah)
20. DEBORAH (Deborah)
21. JOB (Belshazzar)

Not Voting: Barnabas (4), Bathsheba (3), Isaac (2), Jacob (2), Lot, Malchus (2)

Balaam wrote:DAY 5 Results:

1. UZZIAH (Pilate)
2. JEPHTHAH (Rebecca)
3. UZZIAH (Stephen)
4. UZZIAH (Absalom)
5. SAMUEL (Jephthah)<---voter = civvie
6. UZZIAH (Jonathan)<---voter = civvie
7. STEPHEN (Uzziah)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
8. JEPHTHAH (Lot)
9. UZZIAH (Esther)
10. JEPHTHAH (Samuel)
11. SAMUEL (Belshazzar)
12. UZZIAH (Ruth)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
13. ABSALOM (Lazarus)
14. UZZIAH (Rahab)
15. JEPHTHAH (Isaac)
16. UZZIAH (Rachel)
17. UZZIAH (Mordecai)
18. MALCHUS (Deborah)
19. JEPHTHAH (Jonah)


Not Voting: Balaam, Bathsheba (4), Jacob (3), Judah (4), Malchus (3)

Balaam wrote:DAY 6 Results:
1. RACHEL (Isaac)
2. RUTH (Absalom)
3. RUTH (Stephen)
4. ABSALOM (Pilate)
5. RUTH (Lot)
6. PILATE (Esther)
7. RUTH (Jephthah)<---voter = civvie
8. RACHEL (Rebecca)
9. RACHEL (Mordecai)
10. PILATE (Rahab)
11. ABSALOM (Lazarus)
12. JACOB (Jonathan)<---voter = civvie
13. JACOB (Deborah)
14. RUTH (Rachel)
15. RACHEL (Jacob)
16. ABSALOM (Ruth)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
17. RUTH (Balaam)
18. RUTH (Belshazzar)
19. RUTH (Samuel)
20. RUTH (Bathsheba)

Not Voting: Jonah (2), Judah (5), Malchus (4)

Day 7 Results:
1. JONATHAN (Absalom)
2. PILATE (Esther)
3. JONATHAN (Pilate)
4. REBECCA (Jephthah)<---voter = civvie
5. REBECCA (Jacob)
6. JONATHAN (Stephen)
7. PILATE (Rahab)
8. JEPHTHAH (Lot)
9. JEPHTHAH (Rebecca)
10. JEPHTHAH (Balaam)
11. JEPHTHAH (Samuel)
12. JEPHTHAH (Lazarus)
13. JEPHTHAH (Jonathan)<---voter = civvie
14. JONATHAN (Belshazzar)
15. JACOB (Rachel)
16. BALAAM (Mordecai)

Not Voting:
Bathsheba (5), Deborah, Isaac (3), Jonah (3), Judah (6), Malchus (5)

Day 8 Results:

1. LAZARUS (Lot)
2. JONATHAN (Pilate)
3. JONATHAN (Stephen)
4. JONATHAN (Esther))
5. JONATHAN (Balaam)
6. JACOB (Rahab)
7. BALAAM (Mordecai)
8. JACOB (Rachel)
9. JONATHAN (Absalom)
10. JONATHAN (Deborah)
11. JONATHAN (Belshazzar)
12. JONATHAN (Jacob)
13. JONATHAN (Jonah)
14. LAZARUS (Lazarus)
15. JONATHAN (Samuel)

Not Voting: Bathsheba (6), Isaac (4),Jonathan, Judah (7), Malchus (6), Rebecca


Would have been nice if Jonathan had voted for who he thought was bad. Otherwise, it'd be nice to get rid of Bathsheba, Judah, and Malchus (preferably with the roles revealed).

From here, I think what we need to do is make vote analyses for every player left in the game. Then we need to look at those in conjunction with my technicolor lists and see which three or four look the worst or the most likely to be strategically Heathen. Then we need to discuss those players Day 9.

Balaam wrote: From here, I think what we need to do is make vote analyses for every player left in the game. Then we need to look at those in conjunction with my technicolor lists and see which three or four look the worst or the most likely to be strategically Heathen. Then we need to discuss those players Day 9.

I'm with you on this. I'll start, alphabetically, with you, Bathsheba and Belshazzar.

Balaam:
Day 1: The fifth and last voter on Cain, directly following two confirmed Heathens. That would be a ballsy vote if he were bad.
Day 2: Seventh vote on the Cain wagon. Consistent with Day 1. Uzziah had two votes.
Day 3: Seventh vote on Mary Mag. Uzziah had four votes. This is the second time he voted directly after Ruth for the same person.
Day 4: Sixth on the Job wagon. Directly before Ruth's vote for Uzziah.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Sixth vote for Ruth. Came directly after Ruth's vote for me, banking on hypothetical phantom Lazarus votes.
Day 7: Third vote for Geoff, tying it with Jonathan.
Day 8: Fourth vote for Jonathan.

Bathsheba:
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Eighth vote for Cain. Uzziah had three.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Ninth vote for Ruth.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Belshazzar:
Day 1: The sixth vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Third vote on the Cain wagon. Uzziah had one vote.
Day 3: Third vote for Mary Mag, tying the vote with Uzziah. Very suspicious vote.
Day 4: Ninth on the Job wagon.
Day 5: Second vote for Samuel when Uzziah had five and Geoff had three. Immediately after this, Ruth voted for her teammate.
Day 6: Seventh vote for Ruth, right after Balaam's.
Day 7: Fourth vote for Jonathan when Geoff had six.
Day 8: Seventh vote for Jonathan.

Observations:
Every day in which both Balaam and Ruth voted, they voted directly after one another.
Ruth did not post her vote on Day 1, missed Day 2, but on Day 3 she voted 3 minutes before Balaam. On Day 4, 4 minutes after Balaam. Day 5, Balaam missed. Day 6, they voted within three minutes of each other. Maybe a coincidence, but a weird one.

Balaam and Belshazzar voted for the same person 5 out of 8 days. In each case, that person was lynched.

It's possible to see a narrative where Belshazzar is a Heathen. He tried to save Uzziah on Day 3. On Day 5, is team decided Uzziah was done for and they ahd to scatter their votes. Ruth voted for Uzziah and he voted for Samuel (who had no chance of saving Uzziah) in quick succession. The vote for Ruth would have been cover, knowing that she had no chance for survival.

I'm not saying I necessarily believe this yet, but it fits with the data so far. Food for thought.

I would be guaranteed a spot in your top 4, Balaam. Maybe even your top 2. I'm telling you, though, I'm just a vanilla who's made A TON of mistakes with my shit playing this game. I'm with Jul... I mean Jonathan No more sock games for me. Way to easy for me to mess up in my reads of others.

Absalom, you're probably the one I trust the most right now. I like your analysis on Balaam and Belsh. It helps me open my eyes a bit and look beyond their "super helpful, civ-friendly" play style. There could definitely be some sneaky behind the scenes action going on there. I think these 2 are clever enough to cover their tracks carefully, though. Ruth, however, I can see making mistakes, such as voting so closely after Balaam voted (presumably after they just finished discussing in there chatzy).

This is all assuming and theorizing, though. I'd like to hear more thoughts on this.
Now to go estimate when the next poll will close

Hmm, interesting thoughts Abs, I could actually see Belshazzar as a heathen, though I would really be impressed at his style. Looking back at some of his posts, he acted pretty hesitant towards going after Uzziah, saying he was in a "trio" of "brash rogue civvies" with Samson and Cain, and he kept pushing other suspicions. A lot of his Day 3 activity really stands out to me, and most of what I found on a search of his posts for "uzziah" could be interpreted as subtle teammate activity. Also, I might mention, he kept pushing the me + Jonathan cases -- just what a baddie trying to look like a helpful civ would do, press for the popular-but-red-herring suspicions. I don't know if I'm ready to put him at the top of my list yet, just because he's looked so typically civvie of the putting-all-his-thoughts-out-there type all game, and he could of course have just been honestly misguided like the rest of us, but this is an intriguing perspective on him and I'd like to see what he has to say.

Sorry, Jonathan. Requiescat in pace.

I agree with a re-read of the players. I'm fearful, however, of bringing (partial) conclusions forward during the Night phase, given the Heathens' penchant in the past to create WIFOMy kills.

Absalom wrote: It's possible to see a narrative where Belshazzar is a Heathen. He tried to save Uzziah on Day 3. On Day 5, is team decided Uzziah was done for and they ahd to scatter their votes. Ruth voted for Uzziah and he voted for Samuel (who had no chance of saving Uzziah) in quick succession. The vote for Ruth would have been cover, knowing that she had no chance for survival.

If I am the next to be taken outside the city for this sort of narrative, my defense will be swift, because there's not much room for it, but you will not get a better result than the previous couple of days. I am fully aware my vote record is still utterly shameful, despite contributing to a Heathen lynch as well. I stated before that, to some extent, I cannot fully condemn Jonathan's votes that looked the worst because mine were just as sinful - regrettably taking the pedal off Uzziah on Day 3, for instance.

The only part of your narrative I don't quite agree it is Ruth being bussed on Day 6, because I'm more of the belief that she and her teammates did play their best with the votes (either by spreading them and influencing such a spread, either by pushing for Rachel as 2nd wagon), while also having in mind the possibility of you being doomed with Lazarus' vote (plus Pilate's, plus Ruth's). The greatest indicator is Ruth herself gambling with a vote for you, instead of tying herself with Rachel, like in traditional self-preservation dynamics. So the idea that Ruth was thrown under the bus seems least likely to me, out of all possibilities. Their plan must have simply backfired because, after her move, she got four more votes and got lynched after all.

Next three:

Deborah
Day 1: First vote for Cain.
Day 2: Fourth vote on the Cain wagon. Consistent.
Day 3: Fifth vote on the Mary Mag wagon, before Ruth. Uzziah had three votes at the time.
Day 4: Self vote.
Day 5: Only vote on Malchus. Uzziah was definitively going down at this time.
Day 6: Second vote on Jacob. Ruth had four.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Sixth vote on Jonathan.

Esther
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Seventh vote on the Job wagon.
Day 5: Fifth vote on Uzziah, just before Ruth.
Day 6: First vote on Pilate, Ruth had three.
Day 7: First vote on Pilate, consistent with the day before and staying away from both civ wagons.
Day 8: Third vote on Jonathan.

Isaac
Day 1: Third vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Second vote for Job, after Uzziah, making it a tie with Uzziah.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Fourth vote on Geoff. Uzziah had seven at the time.
Day 6: First vote on Rachel, Ruth had none.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Observations
Both Deborah and Issac's Day 3 votes could potentially have been save attempts. Apart from that though, there's not much here to raise my eyebrow. Esther was clearly replaced around Day 4.

Stephen is back, baby!

Sorry for not being around much these past few cycles, I can't explain it using anything such as house explosions this time 'round, really just a case of busy RL.

I don't have much time at the moment, but I will admit I am shocked at Jonathan's reveal. Given his inability to even state any suspicions, I just couldn't believe he was town.

I have the following observations:
- I agree with Belshazzar that the plan on Day 6 backfired and that there was no attempt to bus Ruth.
- I trust (well, as much as one CAN trust in a game like this) the following players at the moment: Absalom, Belshazzar, Lot, and Isaac. Balaam probably, but I'm not entirely sure.

I also think we should start entertaining possible lynches of players that were or are absentee, lest we reach endgame after a few more mislynches and those players have not been disposed of.

Next three:

Jacob
Day 1: Fourth vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Second vote on Mary Mag wagon, Uzziah had three.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Fourth vote on Rachel, Ruth had five.
Day 7: Second vote on Rebecca.
Day 8: Eighth vote for Jonathan.

Jonah
Day 1: First vote for Mary Mag.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Only vote on Rahab, Uzziah had two. A weird vote, since I don't think Rahab has taken any other votes all game.
Day 4: Fourth vote on Job wagon.
Day 5: Fifth vote on Geoff. Uzziah had nine.
Day 6: Missed.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Ninth vote for Jonathan.

Judah
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Fifth vote for Balaam.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Missed.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Observations

Judah is AWOL. Jacob's Day 3 and Day 6 votes both look really bad. I am very interested in Jonah's vote for Rahab. It reminds me a lot of Ruth's vote for Uzziah. An off the wall distancing vote. If it turns out Rahab is bad, I bet Jonah is too, but that will have to wait until I get to her in the rotation.

Isaac wrote:I would be guaranteed a spot in your top 4, Balaam. Maybe even your top 2. I'm telling you, though, I'm just a vanilla who's made A TON of mistakes with my shit playing this game. I'm with Jul... I mean Jonathan No more sock games for me. Way to easy for me to mess up in my reads of others.

Stephen wrote:I also think we should start entertaining possible lynches of players that were or are absentee, lest we reach endgame after a few more mislynches and those players have not been disposed of.

Absalom wrote:

Balaam wrote: From here, I think what we need to do is make vote analyses for every player left in the game. Then we need to look at those in conjunction with my technicolor lists and see which three or four look the worst or the most likely to be strategically Heathen. Then we need to discuss those players Day 9.

I'm with you on this. I'll start, alphabetically, with you, Bathsheba and Belshazzar.

Thanks so much for the vote analyses. I see you skipped your own :P

In all seriousness though, I do believe using voting records is a smart idea as we move forward.

I am on the fence about lynching those who are not active like Bathsheba and Judah? They could possible be bad, but if they aren't then we aren't helping ourselves at at. There is power in numbers even if they aren't helping, right? What do you all think about it?

Absalom, even though I feel you are confirmed civ, I don't think the right thing to do is skip a voting analysis of yourself, could you add that to the next set?

Next three:

Lazarus
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Only vote for me.
Day 3: Only vote for me.
Day 4: Only vote for me.
Day 5: Only vote for me.
Day 6: Second to vote for me, potentially worth five.
Day 7: Fifth vote for Geoff.
Day 8: Self vote (?)

Lot
Day 1: Second vote for Geoff.
Day 2: Second vote for Uzziah. Cain already had five votes at this point, so not too risky.
Day 3: First vote for Rachel. Uzziah and Job had one. A bit early for a teammate, but not out of the realm of possibility.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Second vote for Geoff after Uzziah had four.
Day 6: Third vote for Ruth, before Lazarus voted for me. I think this vote makes Lot unlikely to be mafia.
Day 7: First vote for Geoff.
Day 8: Vote for Lazarus (possibly under duress)

Malchus
Day 1: Second vote for me.
Day 2: Fifth vote on the Cain train.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Missed.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Observations
Until Day 6, I thought Lot was looking pretty shady. He hadn't participated in a single lynch, which looked contrived. After his Ruth vote though, it's hard to see how he is bad. I feel fine about Malchus and Laz.

Lot wrote:Absalom, even though I feel you are confirmed civ, I don't think the right thing to do is skip a voting analysis of yourself, could you add that to the next set?

I skipped my own because I know my role, and hence analyzing my votes would be a waste of time, and because I feel I would lack objectivity. However, if you insist, I will do it next.

Esther wrote:I am on the fence about lynching those who are not active like Bathsheba and Judah? They could possible be bad, but if they aren't then we aren't helping ourselves at at. There is power in numbers even if they aren't helping, right? What do you all think about it?

I think Noah is probably still around and if he picks seven active people, he ups the chance of one of them going home if they are civilian, which would be good. That's a starting point. I feel like they are wasted lynches when we still have info to go on.

I feel really very good about you Esther, I hope your recent presence is a sign you will be around to contribute a bit more because I think you have good insight.

@Absalom - you just thought I was shady because I was coming after you I do know what you mean though. I would have looked a lot better if Jeph was bad. I'll add to that, though, that I think there are plenty of thread things to indicate my alignment - not least of which is (on the Ruth day) being the one who pointed out the Lazarus vote, which I think should be considered a second push that got Ruth over the line.

And yeah, I think it is worth doing. I know I'm often tempted to skip self, but if you provide an active analysis of yourself it prevents others from suggesting what you have done is shady, and allows them to analyse your record for themselves (I already know it's sparkling).

Absalom wrote:It's possible to see a narrative where Belshazzar is a Heathen. He tried to save Uzziah on Day 3. On Day 5, is team decided Uzziah was done for and they had to scatter their votes. Ruth voted for Uzziah and he voted for Samuel (who had no chance of saving Uzziah) in quick succession. The vote for Ruth would have been cover, knowing that she had no chance for survival.

Yes, I've always considered it's possible to see a narrative where Belshazzar is bad, although he is contributing strongly and feels town. There isn't yet anything which rules this out.

Isaac wrote:I like your analysis on Balaam and Belsh. It helps me open my eyes a bit and look beyond their "super helpful, civ-friendly" play style. There could definitely be some sneaky behind the scenes action going on there.ky:

What do you make, then, of Absalom saying my voting record seems to exonerate me, and my vouching for Balaam?

Belshazzar wrote:. So the idea that Ruth was thrown under the bus seems least likely to me, out of all possibilities. Their plan must have simply backfired because, after her move, she got four more votes and got lynched after all.

I agree - the voting on the Ruth day is one I still think could bear a lot of fruit. Same goes for day 3's save of Uzz.

Absalom wrote:Isaac
Day 1: Third vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Second vote for Job, after Uzziah, making it a tie with Uzziah.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Fourth vote on Geoff. Uzziah had seven at the time.
Day 6: First vote on Rachel, Ruth had none.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Observations
Both Deborah and Issac's Day 3 votes could potentially have been save attempts. Apart from that though, there's not much here to raise my eyebrow. Esther was clearly replaced around Day 4.

Did you miss the fact that Uzz was in the equal lead with two votes when Isaac was the third vote on Samson on day one?

Absalom
Day 1: Second vote for Cain, tying it with Uzziah and Samson.
Day 2: Second vote on the Cain train. Consistent.
Day 3: Third vote for Uzziah, putting him in the lead over Job and Rachel.
Day 4: First vote for Balaam.
Day 5: Third vote for Uzziah.
Day 6: First to vote for Ruth. Good vote!
Day 7: First vote for Jonathan.
Day 8: Fifth vote for Jonathan.

Mordecai
Day 1: First vote for Samson, Uzziah had two.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: First vote for Lazarus.Uzziah had two.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Ninth and last vote for Uzziah.
Day 6: Third to vote for Rachel. Ruth had four.
Day 7: First and only vote for Balaam.
Day 8: First and only vote for Balaam. Consistent.

Pilate
Day 1: First vote for Uzziah when the highest vote-taker has two. Incredibly ballsy Day 1 play if bad.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: First vote for Rachel.
Day 5: First vote for Uzziah. Clears him in my mind.
Day 6: First vote for me.
Day 7: Second vote for Jonathan.
Day 8: First vote for Jonathan.

Observations
Mordecai has a really, really bad record. Every vote looks like either a save or a defeatist pile on.
Pilate is unimpeachable. Absalom is a swell guy with a pretty good record of going after baddies.

Absalom wrote:Next three:

Jacob
Day 1: Fourth vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Second vote on Mary Mag wagon, Uzziah had three.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Fourth vote on Rachel, Ruth had five.
Day 7: Second vote on Rebecca.
Day 8: Eighth vote for Jonathan.

Observations

Judah is AWOL. Jacob's Day 3 and Day 6 votes both look really bad. I am very interested in Jonah's vote for Rahab. It reminds me a lot of Ruth's vote for Uzziah. An off the wall distancing vote. If it turns out Rahab is bad, I bet Jonah is too, but that will have to wait until I get to her in the rotation.

And again with Jacob's day one vote...

Lot wrote: Did you miss the fact that Uzz was in the equal lead with two votes when Isaac was the third vote on Samson on day one?

I did miss that. Although you'll note I caught it in my own voting analysis. Thanks for pointing it out!

Absalom wrote: I am very interested in Jonah's vote for Rahab. It reminds me a lot of Ruth's vote for Uzziah. An off the wall distancing vote. If it turns out Rahab is bad, I bet Jonah is too, but that will have to wait until I get to her in the rotation.

Horsemen?

I'll take a breath here and say, at this point, Isaac, Jacob, Mordecai, and Belshazzar look worst. I'm very interested to see what Rahab will yield though.

Lot wrote:

Esther wrote:I am on the fence about lynching those who are not active like Bathsheba and Judah? They could possible be bad, but if they aren't then we aren't helping ourselves at at. There is power in numbers even if they aren't helping, right? What do you all think about it?

I think Noah is probably still around and if he picks seven active people, he ups the chance of one of them going home if they are civilian, which would be good. That's a starting point. I feel like they are wasted lynches when we still have info to go on.

Epignosis wrote:

Balaam wrote:HOST: Does God only inflict divine judgement on a random civvie while Noah is still alive? Or is divine judgement a permanent fixture and only a few people can be protected from it while Noah is still alive?

Divine judgement will occur whether Noah is alive or not.

Although, now that you bring it up, I'm not sure if it also means Noah will pick seven players even if he's dead. Hmm.

That's why I've been saying Isaac, Jacob and Mordecai for a while lol

I know vote analysis isn't everything, but they are definitely the ones I think look worst from analysis.

Interesting that Jacob claims a very important civ and Isaac claims a vanilla civ. Not sure what to take from very different approaches.

Looking forward to your Rahab one too!

@belsh - I'm pretty sure that means any civ can die if Noah isn't around to save some.

I don't like talking during night phase, but I may do a quality check on Absalom's lists. He has me down as missing a vote on day 4, when in actuality I voted a second time on Lazarus.

Absalom wrote:
Pilate
Day 1: First vote for Uzziah when the highest vote-taker has two. Incredibly ballsy Day 1 play if bad.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: First vote for Rachel.
Day 5: First vote for Uzziah. Clears him in my mind.
Day 6: First vote for me.
Day 7: Second vote for Jonathan.
Day 8: First vote for Jonathan.

Observations
Pilate is unimpeachable.

What do you mean he's unimpeachable?

I plan to correlate the vote stats of the players (thanks for that, btw, Absalom; since it's mostly pure statistics, I might work using these) with their read posts, especially towards Heathens.

linki: now that Mordecai mentioned it, I also double checked Absalom's lists and I think he also omitted this

Esther: Day 3 - 4th vote for Job

I'll just do the last five in one go.

Rachel
Day 1: First and only vote for Rebecca.
Day 2: Second vote for Job, following Uzziah.
Day 3: Third vote for Job, tying it with Uzziah.
Day 4: Second on the Job wagon. Consistent with last two days.
Day 5: Eighth of Uzziah. Geoff had four.
Day 6: Fifth for Ruth.
Day 7: First and only vote for Jacob.
Day 8: Second for Jacob.

Rahab
Day 1: Third vote for Uzziah, but Samson already had seven at this point, so pretty safe.
Day 2: Sixth on the Cain train.
Day 3: Fourth vote for Uzziah, late after Mary Mag has five.
Day 4: Second on Lazarus.
Day 5: Seventh on Uzziah. Geoff had three.
Day 6: Second for Pilate after Ruth had four.
Day 7: Second for Pilate. Consistent.
Day 8: First for Jacob.

Rebecca
Day 1: First vote for Geoff.
Day 2: First and only vote for Geoff. Consistent.
Day 3: First on the Mary Mag wagon.
Day 4: Third for Balaam.
Day 5: Third on Geoff.
Day 6: Second for Rachel after Ruth had four.
Day 7: Second vote for Geoff. Must really hate Geoff.
Day 8: Missed.

Samuel
Day 1: Seventh vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Fifth on Job wagon.
Day 5: Third on Geoff.
Day 6: Eighth for Ruth.
Day 7: Fourth for Geoff.
Day 8: Twelfth for Jonathan.

Stephen
Day 1: First and only vote for Barnabas.
Day 2: Self vote.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Second on Uzziah.
Day 6: Second for Ruth.
Day 7: Third for Jonathan.
Day 8: Second for Jonathan.

Observations
I feel pretty good about Rachel, Stephen, and Samuel, looking at this. A part of me thinks Rahab might be an exceptionally devious baddie who managed to voet for her teammate three times at more or less safe points. It's always the quiet ones.

Final observations
I think the people I am most concerned with are Belshazzar, Mordecai, Jacob, Isaac, and Rahab. That list is still too long, so I will try to narrow it down before tomorrow.

What do people think of the weird correlation between Balaam and Ruth's vote times? It's the strangest thing I found in my analysis. Lot, I know you are 100% on Balaam, and I am 90% on you, but I still want to hear what others think.

Mordecai wrote:I don't like talking during night phase, but I may do a quality check on Absalom's lists. He has me down as missing a vote on day 4, when in actuality I voted a second time on Lazarus.

My apologies, Mordecai. I am not immune from mistakes, as I'm sure my voting record has made clear by now.

Esther wrote: What do you mean he's unimpeachable?

I his his voting record makes it almost impossible that he is a Heathen.

Belshazzar wrote: linki: now that Mordecai mentioned it, I also double checked Absalom's lists and I think he also omitted this

Esther: Day 3 - 4th vote for Job

I am glad people are double checking me. It's hard to look at thos vote lists and not miss things.

Double checking: Stephen voted Job Day 4.

Absalom wrote:

Esther wrote: What do you mean he's unimpeachable?

I his his voting record makes it almost impossible that he is a Heathen.

Hmm. I was actually thinking you mean it's almost impossible to read a tactic into his votes due to him being always first or early to vote. What about his posts, then? His two-day self-proclaimed "phoning in" for Rachel Days 3-4, whilst Uzziah escaped a lynch and Job got lynched? His "quickie" votes for Jonathan the past two Days?

Corrected full list.

Absalom
Day 1: Second vote for Cain, tying it with Uzziah and Samson.
Day 2: Second vote on the Cain train. Consistent.
Day 3: Third vote for Uzziah, putting him in the lead over Job and Rachel.
Day 4: First vote for Balaam.
Day 5: Third vote for Uzziah.
Day 6: First to vote for Ruth. Good vote!
Day 7: First vote for Jonathan.
Day 8: Fifth vote for Jonathan.

Balaam:
Day 1: The fifth and last voter on Cain, directly following two confirmed Heathens. That would be a ballsy vote if he were bad.
Day 2: Seventh vote on the Cain wagon. Consistent with Day 1. Uzziah had two votes.
Day 3: Seventh vote on Mary Mag. Uzziah had four votes. This is the second time he voted directly after Ruth for the same person.
Day 4: Sixth on the Job wagon. Directly before Ruth's vote for Uzziah.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Sixth vote for Ruth. Came directly after Ruth's vote for me, banking on hypothetical phantom Lazarus votes.
Day 7: Third vote for Geoff, tying it with Jonathan.
Day 8: Fourth vote for Jonathan.

Bathsheba:
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Eighth vote for Cain. Uzziah had three.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Ninth vote for Ruth.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Belshazzar:
Day 1: The sixth vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Third vote on the Cain wagon. Uzziah had one vote.
Day 3: Third vote for Mary Mag, tying the vote with Uzziah. Very suspicious vote.
Day 4: Ninth on the Job wagon.
Day 5: Second vote for Samuel when Uzziah had five and Geoff had three. Immediately after this, Ruth voted for her teammate.
Day 6: Seventh vote for Ruth, right after Balaam's.
Day 7: Fourth vote for Jonathan when Geoff had six.
Day 8: Seventh vote for Jonathan.

Deborah
Day 1: First vote for Cain.
Day 2: Fourth vote on the Cain wagon. Consistent.
Day 3: Fifth vote on the Mary Mag wagon, before Ruth. Uzziah had three votes at the time.
Day 4: Self vote.
Day 5: Only vote on Malchus. Uzziah was definitively going down at this time.
Day 6: Second vote on Jacob. Ruth had four.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Sixth vote on Jonathan.

Esther
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Fourth vote for Job.
Day 4: Seventh vote on the Job wagon.
Day 5: Fifth vote on Uzziah, just before Ruth.
Day 6: First vote on Pilate, Ruth had three.
Day 7: First vote on Pilate, consistent with the day before and staying away from both civ wagons.
Day 8: Third vote on Jonathan.

Isaac
Day 1: Third vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Second vote for Job, after Uzziah, making it a tie with Uzziah.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Fourth vote on Geoff. Uzziah had seven at the time.
Day 6: First vote on Rachel, Ruth had none.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Jacob
Day 1: Fourth vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Second vote on Mary Mag wagon, Uzziah had three.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Fourth vote on Rachel, Ruth had five.
Day 7: Second vote on Rebecca.
Day 8: Eighth vote for Jonathan.

Jonah
Day 1: First vote for Mary Mag.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Only vote on Rahab, Uzziah had two. A weird vote, since I don't think Rahab has taken any other votes all game.
Day 4: Fourth vote on Job wagon.
Day 5: Fifth vote on Geoff. Uzziah had nine.
Day 6: Missed.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Ninth vote for Jonathan.

Judah
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Fifth vote for Balaam.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Missed.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Lazarus
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Only vote for me.
Day 3: Only vote for me.
Day 4: Only vote for me.
Day 5: Only vote for me.
Day 6: Second to vote for me, potentially worth five.
Day 7: Fifth vote for Geoff.
Day 8: Self vote (?)

Lot
Day 1: Second vote for Geoff.
Day 2: Second vote for Uzziah. Cain already had five votes at this point, so not too risky.
Day 3: First vote for Rachel. Uzziah and Job had one. A bit early for a teammate, but not out of the realm of possibility.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Second vote for Geoff after Uzziah had four.
Day 6: Third vote for Ruth, before Lazarus voted for me. I think this vote makes Lot unlikely to be mafia.
Day 7: First vote for Geoff.
Day 8: Vote for Lazarus (possibly under duress)

Malchus
Day 1: Second vote for me.
Day 2: Fifth vote on the Cain train.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Missed.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Mordecai
Day 1: First vote for Samson, Uzziah had two.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: First vote for Lazarus.Uzziah had two.
Day 4: First vote for Lazarus.
Day 5: Ninth and last vote for Uzziah.
Day 6: Third to vote for Rachel. Ruth had four.
Day 7: First and only vote for Balaam.
Day 8: First and only vote for Balaam. Consistent.

Pilate
Day 1: First vote for Uzziah when the highest vote-taker has two. Incredibly ballsy Day 1 play if bad.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: First vote for Rachel.
Day 5: First vote for Uzziah. Clears him in my mind.
Day 6: First vote for me.
Day 7: Second vote for Jonathan.
Day 8: First vote for Jonathan.

Rachel
Day 1: First and only vote for Rebecca.
Day 2: Second vote for Job, following Uzziah.
Day 3: Third vote for Job, tying it with Uzziah.
Day 4: Second on the Job wagon. Consistent with last two days.
Day 5: Eighth of Uzziah. Geoff had four.
Day 6: Fifth for Ruth.
Day 7: First and only vote for Jacob.
Day 8: Second for Jacob.

Rahab
Day 1: Third vote for Uzziah, but Samson already had seven at this point, so pretty safe.
Day 2: Sixth on the Cain train.
Day 3: Fourth vote for Uzziah, late after Mary Mag has five.
Day 4: Second on Lazarus.
Day 5: Seventh on Uzziah. Geoff had three.
Day 6: Second for Pilate after Ruth had four.
Day 7: Second for Pilate. Consistent.
Day 8: First for Jacob.

Rebecca
Day 1: First vote for Geoff.
Day 2: First and only vote for Geoff. Consistent.
Day 3: First on the Mary Mag wagon.
Day 4: Third for Balaam.
Day 5: Third on Geoff.
Day 6: Second for Rachel after Ruth had four.
Day 7: Second vote for Geoff. Must really hate Geoff.
Day 8: Missed.

Samuel
Day 1: Seventh vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Fifth on Job wagon.
Day 5: Third on Geoff.
Day 6: Eighth for Ruth.
Day 7: Fourth for Geoff.
Day 8: Twelfth for Jonathan.

Stephen
Day 1: First and only vote for Barnabas.
Day 2: Self vote.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Third for Job.
Day 5: Second on Uzziah.
Day 6: Second for Ruth.
Day 7: Third for Jonathan.
Day 8: Second for Jonathan.

Belshazzar wrote:

Absalom wrote:

Esther wrote: What do you mean he's unimpeachable?

I his his voting record makes it almost impossible that he is a Heathen.

Hmm. I was actually thinking you mean it's almost impossible to read a tactic into his votes due to him being always first or early to vote. What about his posts, then? His two-day self-proclaimed "phoning in" for Rachel Days 3-4, whilst Uzziah escaped a lynch and Job got lynched? His "quickie" votes for Jonathan the past two Days?

I'll have to reread him, but I think his Day 1 and Day 5 votes for Uzziah are very unlikely for a teammate.

Wait a minute, don't all the apostles have special abilities? Are there any truly "vanilla" civs? Was that a Vanilly slip, Isaac?
Could be he's an unactivated apostle and is essentially vanilla, but still.


Absalom, why no analysis of Rebecca? What are your thoughts on her? She keeps getting skipped over in discussion, and I think she's still worth looking at.

Oh wait, no, I misread them. The special abilities are the ones there, in brackets. Never mind.

Still, searching for other civvies is not entirely vanilla. I can see why he'd say that but it feels kinda wrong.

Jacob wrote: Absalom, why no analysis of Rebecca? What are your thoughts on her? She keeps getting skipped over in discussion, and I think she's still worth looking at.

I don't know, dude, I'm just not seeing much there. Her Day 3 vote didn't look like a save. Her Day 6 vote looks kind of bad. Her continued voting of Geoff though is what I expect to see from people with genuine suspicions rather than baddies trying to cultivate a good voting record. It's possible she's bad, but she's not high on my already long list of suspects.

I'm not really concerned about the pure statistics so much as her posts surrounding them. In context, her Mary Mag vote looked really bad to me.

Rachel wrote:

Isaac wrote:I would be guaranteed a spot in your top 4, Balaam. Maybe even your top 2. I'm telling you, though, I'm just a vanilla who's made A TON of mistakes with my shit playing this game. I'm with Jul... I mean Jonathan No more sock games for me. Way to easy for me to mess up in my reads of others.

......... Yes?

Lot wrote:

Isaac wrote:I like your analysis on Balaam and Belsh. It helps me open my eyes a bit and look beyond their "super helpful, civ-friendly" play style. There could definitely be some sneaky behind the scenes action going on there.ky:

What do you make, then, of Absalom saying my voting record seems to exonerate me, and my vouching for Balaam?

It means to me that Absalom and I are pretty much in the same boat about you, then. I've been back and forth with my suspicions of you quite a lot. I'm not going to let my guard down, but I've been feeling very good about you lately.

Lot wrote:

Absalom wrote:Isaac
Day 1: Third vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Second vote for Job, after Uzziah, making it a tie with Uzziah.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Fourth vote on Geoff. Uzziah had seven at the time.
Day 6: First vote on Rachel, Ruth had none.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Observations
Both Deborah and Issac's Day 3 votes could potentially have been save attempts. Apart from that though, there's not much here to raise my eyebrow. Esther was clearly replaced around Day 4.

Did you miss the fact that Uzz was in the equal lead with two votes when Isaac was the third vote on Samson on day one?

I totally regret Isaac 1.0s move that day.

Jacob wrote:Wait a minute, don't all the apostles have special abilities? Are there any truly "vanilla" civs? Was that a Vanilly slip, Isaac?
Could be he's an unactivated apostle and is essentially vanilla, but still.


Absalom, why no analysis of Rebecca? What are your thoughts on her? She keeps getting skipped over in discussion, and I think she's still worth looking at.

Calmallama down for a sec and look at the roles page. I call myself vanilla because there is absolutely nothing next to my role on that page.
My only slip up is forgetting to search for other apostles