The Syndicate

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:53 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:48 pm cmon dawg i was the very first person to push sloonei d1. admittedly i didnt push him hard but like. cmon bruh. im an innocent town-aligned civilian

....so do you have tmi that he's scum or tmi that he's town? lol are you messing with me or am I seeing things with confbias that don't actually make sense

god I hope sloonei just flips red xd (I was gonna say "and i can die peacefully" but i think im going to the grassland so i must suffer)

u might be biased to think i am messing with you because i do tend to like being mischievous and mess with people often

but in that specific post my intended tone wasnt tongue-in-cheek, i was, like, stating facts in a dry tone

for the record, i find it very unlikely we have wolves as deep as spf/nut/thun. all three should ~always be town here

if there are wolves deeper than sloonei/alison, they’re in tutuu/nook/martin imo

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:21 pm(Also we are not fucked if he flips town, I'll die tomorrow and then you guys have however many attempts to catch the deepwolves, it's not a huge deal.)

This.

Unless somehow people think that if Alison flips green then I'm mafia

To which I will only lol

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:26 pm post below explains why, and i do believe we are fucked, and u should too if ur town. we have 2 misyeets left. f5 is unplayable for both factions. it will come down to whoever votes faster in the quick topic and thats not mafia (the game) for me

Meh, if it comes down to a stupid rule then once its all over we'll know who won in spirit based on who was right and who was wrong.

That will be what matters to me.

nutella vs me

honestly tutuu is very likely just town

the place i look next in the event of the game being hard is in nook/martin

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:21 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:24 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:08 am tutuu why are you freaking out about how hard the game is if Sloonei is town? Like from your point of view you have no reason to believe there's a particularly high chance he'll flip town.

yea didnt u answer ur own question? he shouldnt flip town. if he flips town we're fucked

Yeah but why do you care so much about the possibility if you believe it shouldn't happen? (Also we are not fucked if he flips town, I'll die tomorrow and then you guys have however many attempts to catch the deepwolves, it's not a huge deal.)

We are at 9 players right now.
7 vs 2. Mischop me + a nightkill:
5 vs 2. Mischop Alison + a nightkill:
3 vs 2. LYLO.

One. The town will have one chance if you and I are both mischops. That is not desirable.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:46 pm Basically yeah if Sloonei and Alison are both town we are indeed pretty fucked

That is possibly true, fmpov.

However I think after those two flips I would urge a tutuu + nook elimination in the f5.

~5 posts left for me for the next 40ish minutes.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:16 pm onestly tutuu is very likely just town

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
i was consensus obv town for everyone d1

my mood and energy changes frequently but my alignment is static, cuties

i really don’t like how alison has no sense of urgency. “oh yea if sloonei is town you just eliminate me and have however many chances to find the deepwolves.” we will have ONE chance. and it will be one chance in a F5 scenario that, as tutuu pointed out, is extremely hard to win for town. but alison seems to not care that in the event of a sloonei town flip, her offering herself up as the next one will put us in a near unwinnable situation

i honestly think she’s just manipulating us to get sloonei killed and buy herself an extra day

i don’t really get how nobody buys my nka argument because it’s wifom-y but y’all drink up alison’s “if sloonei is town kill me next” schtick as though that’s not just as wifom-y if not more. we were always killing alison next after a sloonei town flip anyway. she is not offering us anything new. she just wants to skate by another day

sloonei you gotta flip town so that i don’t look like a total doofus, okay? im defending you and in exchange i expect to be proven right. don’t let me down

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:26 pm i don’t really get how nobody buys my nka argument because it’s wifom-y but y’all drink up alison’s “if sloonei is town kill me next” schtick as though that’s not just as wifom-y if not more. we were always killing alison next after a sloonei town flip anyway. she is not offering us anything new. she just wants to skate by another day

I buy it, Hally.

I am trending toward an Alison vote. Currently in the middle of a Martin ISO. I still have issues with him as well.

linki: We could always just not flip me.

god i feel intensely pranoid now. i wanna vote both alison and hally. god

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:29 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:26 pm i don’t really get how nobody buys my nka argument because it’s wifom-y but y’all drink up alison’s “if sloonei is town kill me next” schtick as though that’s not just as wifom-y if not more. we were always killing alison next after a sloonei town flip anyway. she is not offering us anything new. she just wants to skate by another day

I buy it, Hally.

I am trending toward an Alison vote. Currently in the middle of a Martin ISO. I still have issues with him as well.

linki: We could always just not flip me.

i think it’s too late to not flip you :/

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:30 pm god i feel intensely pranoid now. i wanna vote both alison and hally. god

what why me?

im puzzled at your confidence

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:27 pm sloonei you gotta flip town so that i don’t look like a total doofus, okay? im defending you and in exchange i expect to be proven right. don’t let me down

am i misremembering or when was the last time ive seen u talk so assertively and with confidence?

whatever maybe its just cuz i feel 0 confidence that its weird to me when other people express it

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:32 pm im puzzled at your confidence

well what i’m telling myself is that me being wrong doesn’t matter anyway since nobody is going to listen to me atp, so i can be as confident about it as i want

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:33 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:27 pm sloonei you gotta flip town so that i don’t look like a total doofus, okay? im defending you and in exchange i expect to be proven right. don’t let me down

am i misremembering or when was the last time ive seen u talk so assertively and with confidence?

that was a joke lol. he obviously cannot control what he flips

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:21 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:24 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:08 am tutuu why are you freaking out about how hard the game is if Sloonei is town? Like from your point of view you have no reason to believe there's a particularly high chance he'll flip town.

yea didnt u answer ur own question? he shouldnt flip town. if he flips town we're fucked

Yeah but why do you care so much about the possibility if you believe it shouldn't happen? (Also we are not fucked if he flips town, I'll die tomorrow and then you guys have however many attempts to catch the deepwolves, it's not a huge deal.)

"however many attempts" is one if we mislim you. 2 more mislims and it's lylo. Yes we are in a really bad position if both you and Sloonei are town.

fuck forum mafia

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:26 pm we were always killing alison next after a sloonei town flip anyway

Well that wasn't as obvious to me at the start of D3, especially since I just spent N2 committing to never scum-reading her for over-analyzing reasons.

If sloonei flips town I will vote Alison on D4, not because I scum-read her, but I think she's town and that I need to convince everyone else that the scum-team at that point is most plausibly Nook + Tutuu.

alison is trying to lull town into a false sense of complacency and make us sleep walk into killing sloonei

she is the pied piper leading town’s children away

Here's why I think wolves are really deep: People are considering tutuu for literally no reason other than that she's not cleared as town, and same with Alison/Martin to a degree (although more players do have justification for those). Same with Nanook. I don't think we should be thinking in terms of "who has done the least to clear themselves?" instead, we should be thinking in terms of "Whose actions make the most sense from a scum mindset?"

at least it wont be standard f5 where i can throw with my horrible reads. we will lose due to scum copy pasting their pre-written vote faster. and i get to feel less personally responsible and guilty

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:37 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:26 pm we were always killing alison next after a sloonei town flip anyway

Well that wasn't as obvious to me at the start of D3, especially since I just spent N2 committing to never scum-reading her for over-analyzing reasons.

If sloonei flips town I will vote Alison on D4, not because I scum-read her, but I think she's town and that I need to convince everyone else that the scum-team at that point is most plausibly Nook + Tutuu.

well maybe you disagree but alison undoubtedly would be next in line after a sloonei town flip just based on the general consensus

also, uh no. infochopping someone you think is town the dag before lylo is bad. if you think alison is town you should not vote her

Martin & Long Con Long Con appears in a list of five players Martin is "considering to vote". Okay.
He has walked back the LC suspicion a little while later, citing other people's opinions on him. I could see this coming from town, but it's also easily readable as soft distancing between partners.

Incidental mention of LC in this post, expresses agreement with a scum lean on him. In three posts Martin has gone from "would vote" to "wouldn't vote" to "I agree with this scum lean" on LC. Granted, this appears to be a retrospective read: he is commenting on his response to nova's LC read at the time it was posted. But this remains a bit of a rollercoaster progression.
"It goes without saying that I suspect LC, but I'm not going to push him at all today." Bleh. This is not a good look.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:59 pm I don't think the derp-clear was scummy at all by Long Con, but I personally can't find it towny on an independent play basis.

This is a better look. People are suddenly clearing LC for a supposed "derpclear" and Martin says no to it all.
This would be some hardcore wifom if Martin is LC's teammate. Given his relative newness to the game, I'd be inclined to say he's not comfortable enough to do that as a wolf yet. But that's not a firm read.
This is a weirdly constructed list. I've never seen anything like it, tbh. The colors reflect the level of confidence he has in the reads, but there seems to be no correlation between Martin's confidence and the placement of names on the list. SPF is his third highest town read, but that's not as confident a read as his read on me, in almost the exact middle of the list. He is more confident in his second "scummiest" read (Nanook) than his first "scummiest" read (Alison).
On one hand, my response to all this is, "What?" But weirdness does not equal scumminess, and there is another part of me that wants to aware this townie points on the basis that I'm not sure a wolf would post a list in this format. It's unorthodox and fishy on the surface.
But I still have to ask Martin why his level of confidence does not seem to have any bearing on the strength of his reads.
LC is mafia in the GTH exercise. That is consistent with everything else. So are all these other reads. Coool.

More potential hardcore wifom based on Jay's interactions chart. My gut says that if a new player got busted like this so early in a game by a player with Jay's reputation, he'd be more of a turtle and not steer directly into the storm like this. This is a super bold response if Martin is bad.

But then later in the post, Martin's one-line read on LC is as follows: 'Long Con---Do I reaaallllyyyyy need to talk about this one? He hasn't done much afaik. I've held off just because people said its his meta to be like he was during D1.'
For as much as Martin has vocalized a suspicion on LC, he has not really gone into much detail and has twice now phrased it as a given/not in need of an explanation. I think Martin has a rule where he doesn't want me to be able to feel too good about his handling of LC, so for every good thing he does he must also do a bad thing.
Martin: "Hey, let's kill nova so that I can use that to frame you as bad, LC."
Long Con: "Yeah!"

Nothing is off the table with LC as far as WIFOM goes, and this isn't a super strong push and it comes fairly late in the day. But... meh. I award a slight townie point to Martin for it.

-------
Conclusion: Martin's treatment of LC is bumpy. There are moments I think look very good and moments that sufficiently undo those "very good" feelings I otherwise have. I think his response to being linked to LC by Jay look very unlike what I'd expect from a player in (maybe?) their first scum game. I can't imagine martin has more than one previous scum game under his belt coming into this, at least.
But at the same time, his "push" on LC never really has any force behind it. It's just "I think LC is bad because he's not doing anything" in a few isolated statements here and there. That could just be, again, related to his level of experience. Knowing how and when to push a case is something that takes time to figure out (it's hard enough to figure out our own reads, let alone to get others to follow us), so I'm not as confident in this point as I would be for other players.

There is not enough here for me to remove Martin from the POE.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:38 pm "Whose actions make the most sense from a scum mindset?"

That is debatable in most aspects in many situations.

I mean like, you can argue not voting LC in the hopes of preventing an elimination of him is the best way to go. After all, the D2 elimination was rather quite close.

On the other hand you could be Nook who thinks their vote at point where it would be evident as a critical way to gain town-cred.

See what I mean?

I just don't see it going anywhere at this point. Or at least not enough in the next 3 hours to change a Sloonei elimination from my point of view. Heck, even SPF said she won't be here for EoD and just left her vote on Sloonei if I recall.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:43 pm On the other hand you could be Nook who thinks their vote of LC (at point where it would be critcial to the Long Con elimination) as a critical way to gain town-cred.

Ebwop.

And I'm gonna shut-up for the next hour or so. I need to grab lunch while the post-cap restriction lifts.

[mention]MartinGG99[/mention] if there is one point in that ISO I want you to respond to it's this one: Can you talk some more about this list? When I look at it, it does not look like your confidence-level and the strength of the reads themselves are in sync. SPF being a "townier" read than Jay or myself despite you having put "not much effort" into that read looks weird; as does having me smack in the middle of the list but proclaiming yourself to be "mostly confident in this position." Also, having Nanook as "mostly confident" but Alison as "unsure" when they're ordered the way they are is an odd look.

it’s not martin’s first scum game. it would be at least his third or fourth and he’s done very well in the two i know of

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:45 pm it’s not martin’s first scum game. it would be at least his third or fourth and he’s done very well in the two i know of

so... would this be his first town game?

that slightly undoes the biggest point I had in martin's favor

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:46 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:45 pm it’s not martin’s first scum game. it would be at least his third or fourth and he’s done very well in the two i know of

so... would this be his first town game?

no, if he is scum this time i think it would be his third. if he is town i think it would be his fourth. pretty sure he said he had six games of experience going into this one and he was scum in two of them that i know of

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:48 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:46 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:45 pm it’s not martin’s first scum game. it would be at least his third or fourth and he’s done very well in the two i know of

so... would this be his first town game?

no, if he is scum this time i think it would be his third. if he is town i think it would be his fourth. pretty sure he said he had six games of experience going into this one and he was scum in two of them that i know of

oh. hm.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:43 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:38 pm "Whose actions make the most sense from a scum mindset?"

That is debatable in most aspects in many situations.

I mean like, you can argue not voting LC in the hopes of preventing an elimination of him is the best way to go. After all, the D2 elimination was rather quite close.

On the other hand you could be Nook who thinks their vote at point where it would be evident as a critical way to gain town-cred.

See what I mean?

I just don't see it going anywhere at this point. Or at least not enough in the next 3 hours to change a Sloonei elimination from my point of view. Heck, even SPF said she won't be here for EoD and just left her vote on Sloonei if I recall.

True, but for example Alison's D2 actions would be extremely risky if she was scum. I get the strong feeling that she could get more towncred if she tried since she was able to until the end as SK and I know she's a very strategic scum player. It doesn't seem right that the two people up for elimination are the two people that have been in the PoE most of the game. This gamestate isn't one where town nail the wolves, it's one where we're repeatedly fooled by them. I actually think there's decent evidence to suggest nutella was bussing which I pointed out earlier. LC counterpushing town!Nutella doesn't make sense from the POV of him trying not to get executed or from the POV of him trying not to give town info (he tried very hard not to give town info in the grasslands and near EOD). However, it makes perfect sense in the world where this is a planned bus and he's trying to give Nutella as much town cred as possible.

in romeo and juliet on MU he was scum in a newbie game and made it to endgame and won i think

and in the scum game he linked on his homesite he once again made it to endgame and nearly won but for 3P shenanigans

he’s new but he’s not a slouch. he can play

oh wait i think romeo and juliet was his town game

he was scum in the newbie’s paradise one

I highly doubt the second wolf in a Nutella wolf theory is SPF or Hally though. They both feel really towny to me independently. So the second wolf in this world is someone who's less deep and more considered as a suspect. Which means that I should probably be more of a team player and focus on finding and pushing said second wolf instead of insisting on a theory that nobody else is willing to consider.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:52 pm oh wait i think romeo and juliet was his town game

he was scum in the newbie’s paradise one

What is his alignment here?

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:53 pm I highly doubt the second wolf in a Nutella wolf theory is SPF or Hally though. They both feel really towny to me independently. So the second wolf in this world is someone who's less deep and more considered as a suspect. Which means that I should probably be more of a team player and focus on finding and pushing said second wolf instead of insisting on a theory that nobody else is willing to consider.

So... am I town?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:54 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:53 pm I highly doubt the second wolf in a Nutella wolf theory is SPF or Hally though. They both feel really towny to me independently. So the second wolf in this world is someone who's less deep and more considered as a suspect. Which means that I should probably be more of a team player and focus on finding and pushing said second wolf instead of insisting on a theory that nobody else is willing to consider.

So... am I town?

GTH at this point I would say you are, but I still townread Alison more strongly than you.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:53 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:52 pm oh wait i think romeo and juliet was his town game

he was scum in the newbie’s paradise one

What is his alignment here?

idk i’m not an oracle but really, he seems towny to me? but it’s not like i can’t see him as scum. not at all. if you and alison are town martin/nook is the first place i go

[mention]MartinGG99[/mention] I noticed that I asked you twice if you avoided lying in your scum game and you didn't answer. Is it true that as scum you dislike lying?

I'm starting to consider Martin again since his game here isn't all that different from his scum game.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:58 pm @MartinGG99 I noticed that I asked you twice if you avoided lying in your scum game and you didn't answer. Is it true that as scum you dislike lying?

I'm starting to consider Martin again since his game here isn't all that different from his scum game.

Also the whole "If the wolves were that deep they could have saved LC" is a decent argument for why it's not Nut/one of Hally or SPF.

i don’t think nut is ~ever a wolf here, thun

Post cap lifted, folks!

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:00 pm i don’t think nut is ~ever a wolf here, thun

I know you don't and nobody else does, so I'm trying to shift my focus away from Nut's alignment and focus on finding another suspect that's a little more consensus so that town has a higher chance of winning.