Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:09 am
EBWOP: it didn't stop me from trying
I prefered your Wood Elf and t should have won!thellama73 wrote:EBWOP: it didn't stop me from trying
Thank you! Yes, that one was certianly more inspired than my Smaug.Snow Dog wrote:I prefered your Wood Elf and t should have won!thellama73 wrote:EBWOP: it didn't stop me from trying
But Snowy, you have admitted that you thought Boogs was Smaug. What would stop you, if you are a baddie, from being single minded against him?Snow Dog wrote:Consider that I have been after Boogs since pretty much the off. Would a mafia be so single minded (besides my stupid vote for Mongoose when she wasn't lynched)?
Hedgeowl wrote:This is my entry, although the photo credit belongs to Llama's sister for the picture of me and the husband. I added that nifty speech bubble for my artistic spin.![]()
The first time Boogs took votes, he took them from Snow Dog, Vompatti, A Person, Lizzy, Spacedaisy and CBK. I think at least one of those is aligned with him. We know Vompatti was good, but I remain suspicious of Lizzy and AP, and I am open to looking at Spacedaisy as well. I am still reading CBK as civ, though.Turnip Head wrote: To the players who are feeling a Snow Dog vote, I'm curious to know who you think his teammates might be.
I don't necessarily like this. As a civvie I would not be saying vote for me, ever. I would have a more whatever attitude, but this seems like you're trying to rely on an emotional appeal and get into Llama's head about 'doubts'.Snow Dog wrote:I know, and there lies the problem. You have to trust your feelings I guess. Do you truly believe I'm bad, Llama? If so you must vote for me. If you have doubts though please think again.thellama73 wrote:Yeah, but that's exactly what a baddie would say, so there's no way to know if you're lying.Snow Dog wrote: If you lynch me you will definitely not nail a baddie.
Dang guys, mafia is hard.
You play your way, I'll play mine.kneel4justice wrote:I don't necessarily like this. As a civvie I would not be saying vote for me, ever. I would have a more whatever attitude, but this seems like you're trying to rely on an emotional appeal and get into Llama's head about 'doubts'.Snow Dog wrote:I know, and there lies the problem. You have to trust your feelings I guess. Do you truly believe I'm bad, Llama? If so you must vote for me. If you have doubts though please think again.thellama73 wrote:Yeah, but that's exactly what a baddie would say, so there's no way to know if you're lying.Snow Dog wrote: If you lynch me you will definitely not nail a baddie.
Dang guys, mafia is hard.
Well as you know I think CBK is civ too. But as TH said this single mindedness also applies to her as well as me.thellama73 wrote:The first time Boogs took votes, he took them from Snow Dog, Vompatti, A Person, Lizzy, Spacedaisy and CBK. I think at least one of those is aligned with him. We know Vompatti was good, but I remain suspicious of Lizzy and AP, and I am open to looking at Spacedaisy as well. I am still reading CBK as civ, though.Turnip Head wrote: To the players who are feeling a Snow Dog vote, I'm curious to know who you think his teammates might be.
No. This cat is:juliets wrote:I do want to know if she is your leading suspicion at this point in time.
Eh? He has one vote, and many have stated they may not vote for him.Turnip Head wrote:But I'm not convinced about you, though you seem to be flailing. But it looks to me like the lynch train is headed your way unless you help slow it down.
First on-topic post.Turnip Head wrote:Mongoose, if we don't lynch you, who would you suggest we look at instead?
Pardon me?Turnip Head wrote:I think Mongoose is more likely to be Gollum than Smaug or a goblin. Gollum likely has The One Ring, which could explain Mongoose's disappearance/escape from the Day 4 lynch. Given the way the past two votes have gone, I think poor Goosey is more likely to be living in a cave pitiful and alone than she is to have any teammates.
Regarding the greened, if you thought Mongoose was unlikely to have a team, why vote for her?Bilbo Baggins
Possessor of the Ring, which gives him special powers. Also the dwarves' burglar, despite being a homebody. Initially doubted by the dwarves, he continually goes up in their estimation.
Gains +1 vote every 3 Day periods. May have the opportunity to burgle from Smaug.
Seems like she's given up? Hell, by this point, Mongoose had 12 votes. Her lynch was inevitable.Turnip Head wrote:Voting for Mongoose. She didn't respond to my question about who we should be looking at other than her, so it seems like she's given up, which usually means baddie.
Not Mongoose.Turnip Head wrote:Llama, I reread Mongoose, and nothing stood out to me tbh. Though I also didn't realize how talkative she's been... I think that's the only thing that stood out, I'm used to Mongoose participating but not being so active especially at the beginning of a game. I have also never seen Mongoose's baddie game before. What makes you think this looks like her baddie game opposed to her civ game?
Here TH 1.0 expressed interest in saving Boogs. TH 2.0 even voted A Person to save Boogs on Day 7.Turnip Head wrote:I will likely be voting one of my bigger suspects, Daisy or Snow Dog, but I'm looking at the votes to see if I need to save Boogs by voting Elo. I do not feel comfortable with the suspicion on Boogs so far.
Linki: Hmm, good point about his vote possibly being forced yesterday, Epi.
Spacedaisy had no votes at the time. However, Vompatti and Boogs both had 4 votes apiece at the time TH 2.0 voted. This means that the talk of saving Boogs was disingenuous, even if TH 2.0 voted for A Person on Day 7.Turnip Head wrote:I don't think Boogs should be lynched, I've never understood the case on him and it seems to have snowballed to where he's getting votes just because he's been discussed the most at this point.
I'm voting Daisy. I know she's had a lot going on in RL apparently but I think she's flying low because all her teammates got lynched at the start of the game.
Turnip Head wrote:Snow Dog's vote from yesterday stands out to me:Snow Dog did not show any suspicions towards k4j until Snow Dog abandoned his top two suspects - both of whom had votes - to "chuck a vote" onto k4j. But then, 11 minutes later, Snow Dog says:Snow Dog wrote:I think I suspect Elochin and Mongoose most but I might suck it and see and chuck a vote on k4j .At the time of Snow Dog's throwaway vote for Vompatti, FZ and k4j were tied at 4 votes apiece, Elo had 2, and Mongoose had 1. There were a few quick random votes in between Snow Dog's first post and his vote post 11 minutes later... I think Snow Dog tried to blend in with the BWT's self-vote and Vomp's "defend Mongoose via randomization" vote. I think Snow Dog wanted to avoid accountability.Snow Dog wrote:I just randomised the llama voters and got the wombat.
Turnip Head wrote:Interesting that Snow Dog only replies to Llama's defense of him, and not to the post I originally made about him which llama is commenting on. Vompatti was literally the only person to vote for llama, and probably the only player who had even expressed suspicion of Llama. Llama needed no saving, no defending, and I would argue that Snow Dog should have known that. That was not the reason Snow Dog should have thrown away his vote, when he seemed to have solid, relevant suspects (Elo and Mongoose) and also seemed briefly to have an itch to "chuck a vote" onto k4j.
Who else tried to buddy up to you, Logan, and got caught red-handed?
TH 2.0:Turnip Head wrote:I will likely be voting one of my bigger suspects, Daisy or Snow Dog, but I'm looking at the votes to see if I need to save Boogs by voting Elo. I do not feel comfortable with the suspicion on Boogs so far.
Linki: Hmm, good point about his vote possibly being forced yesterday, Epi.
That suspicion just...dissolved?Turnip Head wrote:But I'm not convinced about you, though you seem to be flailing. But it looks to me like the lynch train is headed your way unless you help slow it down.
Cart before the horse. How do you look for teammates before you've established someone even has a team? I'm pretty sure I know one of yours though.Turnip Head wrote:To the players who are feeling a Snow Dog vote, I'm curious to know who you think his teammates might be. The only surface-level connection I would be able to draw to Snow is CBK, but she is insanified, and also appears to suspect Snowy based on her answer to Dom's question, which doesn't seem very teammate-like at this stage. If the Dog is bad, I'm not sure where I'd look next for teammates, which makes me think perhaps he doesn't have any and that lynching him is the wrong call.
Does it tie TH 2.0 to Snow Dog, or does TH 2.0 know Snowy is highly unlikely to be bad? I don't know- not important to me at the moment. But the difference between TH1 and TH2 is night and day:thellama73 wrote:Rob, how are you feeling about Snow Dog these days? That last post seems to tie TH 2.0 to him. Do you think I'm on the right track, or way off?
True, but you're not controlling for other variables. The only difference between TH 1.0 and TH 2.0 is not their role, but also the passage of time and the events that have transpired in the thread. I'm not sure this passes the P < 0.05 confidence interval.Epignosis wrote:Does it tie TH 2.0 to Snow Dog, or does TH 2.0 know Snowy is highly unlikely to be bad? I don't know- not important to me at the moment. But the difference between TH1 and TH2 is night and day:thellama73 wrote:Rob, how are you feeling about Snow Dog these days? That last post seems to tie TH 2.0 to him. Do you think I'm on the right track, or way off?
Boogs:
TH1 felt good about Boogs and TH2 felt good about Boogs. Swell.
Mongoose:
TH1 felt good about Mongoose and TH2 felt bad about Mongoose.
Snow Dog:
TH1 felt bad about Snow Dog but TH2 feels good about Snow Dog.
++++
Whereas TH1 was involved in detailed analysis, TH2 says rather vague things. Look at his last post. It's a block of text, but what all does it really say? It's mostly fluff.
Do you think hat is because they are quotes from Turnip Head, and you don't have access to his memories?Snow Dog wrote:There are things there I don't even remember thinking or saying.
I am talking about the quotes or quote from me in there.thellama73 wrote:Do you think hat is because they are quotes from Turnip Head, and you don't have access to his memories?Snow Dog wrote:There are things there I don't even remember thinking or saying.
Now thta I think about it, that makes a lot more sense.Snow Dog wrote:I am talking about the quotes or quote from me in there.thellama73 wrote:Do you think hat is because they are quotes from Turnip Head, and you don't have access to his memories?Snow Dog wrote:There are things there I don't even remember thinking or saying.
Yeah, I know. I hope you weren't taking offense here, I wasn't trying to tell you how to play.Snow Dog wrote:You play your way, I'll play mine.kneel4justice wrote:I don't necessarily like this. As a civvie I would not be saying vote for me, ever. I would have a more whatever attitude, but this seems like you're trying to rely on an emotional appeal and get into Llama's head about 'doubts'.Snow Dog wrote:I know, and there lies the problem. You have to trust your feelings I guess. Do you truly believe I'm bad, Llama? If so you must vote for me. If you have doubts though please think again.thellama73 wrote:Yeah, but that's exactly what a baddie would say, so there's no way to know if you're lying.Snow Dog wrote: If you lynch me you will definitely not nail a baddie.
Dang guys, mafia is hard.
For the time passage he should have came in with opinions rather than just discover new ones, IMO.thellama73 wrote:True, but you're not controlling for other variables. The only difference between TH 1.0 and TH 2.0 is not their role, but also the passage of time and the events that have transpired in the thread. I'm not sure this passes the P < 0.05 confidence interval.Epignosis wrote:Does it tie TH 2.0 to Snow Dog, or does TH 2.0 know Snowy is highly unlikely to be bad? I don't know- not important to me at the moment. But the difference between TH1 and TH2 is night and day:thellama73 wrote:Rob, how are you feeling about Snow Dog these days? That last post seems to tie TH 2.0 to him. Do you think I'm on the right track, or way off?
Boogs:
TH1 felt good about Boogs and TH2 felt good about Boogs. Swell.
Mongoose:
TH1 felt good about Mongoose and TH2 felt bad about Mongoose.
Snow Dog:
TH1 felt bad about Snow Dog but TH2 feels good about Snow Dog.
++++
Whereas TH1 was involved in detailed analysis, TH2 says rather vague things. Look at his last post. It's a block of text, but what all does it really say? It's mostly fluff.
I'll be honest. Right here, it's starting to feel like a plea of desperation I've used many times as a cornered baddie. Often in the past, when I'm bad and have been "caught", I'll start ferreting around and asking people to ask me if there is anything I can clear up. I don't think it makes you bad, but I know it's the only time I've used that strategy. And funny enough, it's never worked for me.Snow Dog wrote:OK...anything you want me to attempt to clear up? I thought my posts were OK
1. Maybe some baddies amongst Boogs voters.
2. Is everyone still keen on AP.
I don't see any problem there. But maybe i don't play the game well.
Fixed.birdwithteeth11 wrote:So I just wanted to mention that I nailed my interviewer. I feel extremely confident about how I did and I think I got her into the position!
Oh believe me, I wish I did.thellama73 wrote:Fixed.birdwithteeth11 wrote:So I just wanted to mention that I nailed my interviewer. I feel extremely confident about how I did and I think I got her into the position!
yayayyayabirdwithteeth11 wrote:So I just wanted to mention that I nailed my interview. I feel extremely confident about how I did and I think I got the position!![]()
It's an artistic rendition of Smaug.Epignosis wrote:Dom, that's not Smaug.
This is fucking awesome! Plus 100 real-life gold (cannot be redeemed in this game).birdwithteeth11 wrote:So I just wanted to mention that I nailed my interview. I feel extremely confident about how I did and I think I got the position!
Russtifinko wrote:Oh! And before I forget:
Effective immediately, Kylemii is replacing in for A Person, due to the computer issues AP mentioned. He is very excited to be back, but I just went on a 7-hour hike in the brisk (to put it nicely) Norwegian mountains and am freaking exhausted. So he will get his role tomorrow at some point; don't expect too much from him until then.
He will be immune from today's lynch, and from NKs in the coming night. So do not vote AP today if you want your gold.
This is mosty from memory, so excuse me if there are errors.Kylemii wrote:Russtifinko wrote:Oh! And before I forget:
Effective immediately, Kylemii is replacing in for A Person, due to the computer issues AP mentioned. He is very excited to be back, but I just went on a 7-hour hike in the brisk (to put it nicely) Norwegian mountains and am freaking exhausted. So he will get his role tomorrow at some point; don't expect too much from him until then.
He will be immune from today's lynch, and from NKs in the coming night. So do not vote AP today if you want your gold.
(in the meantime, if anyone can give a brief summary of the last 7 days I would appreciate it immensely)
thellama73 wrote:So listen, you guys. I was thinking about Smaug and what his roll says. If you get too close to his treasure, he gets agitated and starts killing. He started killing on Night 3, so I looked at who we almost lynched on Day 3.Sadly, none of the people who received votes that day can be him. Then I thought about how Bilbo can try to burgle Smaug, and thought maybe Mongoose targeted him to wake him up. If that was the case, maybe she would say something in the way of a clue. Again, though, she didn't express any suspicions after Day 3 with the exception of saying Dom isn't dead (which he wasn't, it turns out). Maybe Dom is Smaug?
Then I thought maybe Smaug's kill was delayed somehow, so I looked at who we almost lynched on Day 2. It was K4J. If I had to take a wild stab in the dark over who Smaug is, I would bet K4J at this point. Wild speculation I know, but I welcome anyone else's contributions to this theory.
There's also this:Epignosis wrote:Pardon me?Turnip Head wrote:I think Mongoose is more likely to be Gollum than Smaug or a goblin. Gollum likely has The One Ring, which could explain Mongoose's disappearance/escape from the Day 4 lynch. Given the way the past two votes have gone, I think poor Goosey is more likely to be living in a cave pitiful and alone than she is to have any teammates.
Bilbo Baggins
Possessor of the Ring, which gives him special powers. Also the dwarves' burglar, despite being a homebody. Initially doubted by the dwarves, he continually goes up in their estimation.
Gains +1 vote every 3 Day periods. May have the opportunity to burgle from Smaug.
It says he has a Ring of Power, and it also says "secrets". I thought it was a reasonable explanation.Gollum A pitiful, miserable creature and the owner of a Ring of Power (these facts are connected). Lives alone in a cave, eating raw fish and practicing riddles.
Secret
Mongoose gave up long before her lynch was inevitable, and long before the post where I said she had already given up.Epignosis wrote:Seems like she's given up? Hell, by this point, Mongoose had 12 votes. Her lynch was inevitable.Turnip Head wrote:Voting for Mongoose. She didn't respond to my question about who we should be looking at other than her, so it seems like she's given up, which usually means baddie.
You're right, I did not suspect Mongoose, and if I had been alive on Day 4 I probably would have defended her from her accusers, as I did not see a case on her but rather bandwagon groupthought. But TH 1.0 was not alive when Mongoose survived a lynch and then acted sketchy afterwards. My opinion of Mongoose changed based on her behavior after her first attempted lynch, not because of my role or because my alignment changed. And there's a gap in my thought process due to the fact that I had no thread presence the first time Mongoose was lynched.Epignosis wrote:People TH 1.0 expressed suspicion of:
MP - first vote.
Spacedaisy
k4j - You called him MP's teammate. Voted him Day 2.
Eloh - Last to vote her on Day 3.
Snow Dog![]()
You know who TH 1.0 did not suspect?
Not Mongoose.![]()
I did not vote Vompatti to save Boogs because I did not suspect Vompatti either, and I did not want to contribute to making the lynch between those two. At the time I voted Daisy it did not seem a foregone conclusion to me that the lynch would be Boogs vs Vomps. In fact, Boogs got no more votes after I voted for Daisy. What if the Vompatti voters had voted for Daisy instead? I cannot control what other players do after my vote.Epignosis wrote:Spacedaisy had no votes at the time. However, Vompatti and Boogs both had 4 votes apiece at the time TH 2.0 voted. This means that the talk of saving Boogs was disingenuous, even if TH 2.0 voted for A Person on Day 7.
Are you reading the posts that you are referencing? Or connecting the dots between them? My suspicion of Snow Dog in the early game was mainly tied to what I viewed as a suspicious "random" vote for Vompatti. It was a point you yourself helped me change my mind about; you brought up the possibility that his vote was forced. I did not pursue further suspicion of him after I considered that.Epignosis wrote:That brings me back to Snow Dog.
TH 1.0:
Turnip Head wrote:Snow Dog's vote from yesterday stands out to me:Snow Dog did not show any suspicions towards k4j until Snow Dog abandoned his top two suspects - both of whom had votes - to "chuck a vote" onto k4j. But then, 11 minutes later, Snow Dog says:Snow Dog wrote:I think I suspect Elochin and Mongoose most but I might suck it and see and chuck a vote on k4j .At the time of Snow Dog's throwaway vote for Vompatti, FZ and k4j were tied at 4 votes apiece, Elo had 2, and Mongoose had 1. There were a few quick random votes in between Snow Dog's first post and his vote post 11 minutes later... I think Snow Dog tried to blend in with the BWT's self-vote and Vomp's "defend Mongoose via randomization" vote. I think Snow Dog wanted to avoid accountability.Snow Dog wrote:I just randomised the llama voters and got the wombat.Turnip Head wrote:Interesting that Snow Dog only replies to Llama's defense of him, and not to the post I originally made about him which llama is commenting on. Vompatti was literally the only person to vote for llama, and probably the only player who had even expressed suspicion of Llama. Llama needed no saving, no defending, and I would argue that Snow Dog should have known that. That was not the reason Snow Dog should have thrown away his vote, when he seemed to have solid, relevant suspects (Elo and Mongoose) and also seemed briefly to have an itch to "chuck a vote" onto k4j.
Who else tried to buddy up to you, Logan, and got caught red-handed?TH 2.0:Turnip Head wrote:I will likely be voting one of my bigger suspects, Daisy or Snow Dog, but I'm looking at the votes to see if I need to save Boogs by voting Elo. I do not feel comfortable with the suspicion on Boogs so far.
Linki: Hmm, good point about his vote possibly being forced yesterday, Epi.
That suspicion just...dissolved?Turnip Head wrote:But I'm not convinced about you, though you seem to be flailing. But it looks to me like the lynch train is headed your way unless you help slow it down.
You're wrong about why I'm asking this question. "Cart before the horse" would imply that I'm trying to lynch a suspected Snow Dog teammate before lynching Snow Dog. That's not what I was saying. I was wondering who people thought Snow Dog's teammates were if they suspected him, because as of yet I'm not seeing much evidence that he has any teammates, which makes me think he might not be a baddie. Snow Dog might be the fall guy.Epignosis wrote:Cart before the horse. How do you look for teammates before you've established someone even has a team? I'm pretty sure I know one of yours though.Turnip Head wrote:To the players who are feeling a Snow Dog vote, I'm curious to know who you think his teammates might be. The only surface-level connection I would be able to draw to Snow is CBK, but she is insanified, and also appears to suspect Snowy based on her answer to Dom's question, which doesn't seem very teammate-like at this stage. If the Dog is bad, I'm not sure where I'd look next for teammates, which makes me think perhaps he doesn't have any and that lynching him is the wrong call.
That's inaccurate. reywaS thought I was a Townie Goblin.thellama73 wrote:Night 5: We all seem a bit lost. reywaS thinks Epig is Smaug and is killed by Smaug.
Like I said, I don't know. But let me expand.juliets wrote:Snow Dog, I'm curious as to why you won't answer dom's question about who you thought was shady. Your answer, as I saw it, was I don't know. I'm hoping that was just a heat of the moment answer and you can either explain who at the time you thought was shady or explain why you won't tell us. I just don't understand I guess but it is bothering me.
Throwing me under the bus?Captain Bunny Killer wrote:Snow. Rererereread Read Snotead *Vow. Snotead Snow. Snow. Snow. *Vow. *Vow. *Vow. Res *Vow. Snow. *Vow. Snow. *Vow. Snow. Read *Vow. *Votes Snotead Snoteres Snotes Snotead Snow. Snotes Read Reread *Voteread *Vow. Snow. *Votead Snow. Res *Vow. Snow. Res *Vow. Snotead Read Snoteread Snow. *Vow. Snow. Res Res Snow. Res Snoteread Res Snow. *Votead *Votes Res Res *Vow. *Vow. *Vow. Res Snow. Snotes Snoteread Snow. Snow. Snow. Reres Read *Vow. Snotead Snow. Read *Vow. Snow. *Vow. Snow. Snow. Snow. Snotes