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Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:09 am
by thellama73
EBWOP: it didn't stop me from trying

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:15 am
by Snow Dog
thellama73 wrote:EBWOP: it didn't stop me from trying
I prefered your Wood Elf and t should have won!

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:18 am
by thellama73
Snow Dog wrote:
thellama73 wrote:EBWOP: it didn't stop me from trying
I prefered your Wood Elf and t should have won!
Thank you! Yes, that one was certianly more inspired than my Smaug.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:20 am
by thellama73
(to be honest, I am kind of hoping no one but >SE and me enters the contest. Free money!)

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:56 am
by Hedgeowl
This is my entry, although the photo credit belongs to Llama's sister for the picture of me and the husband. I added that nifty speech bubble for my artistic spin. :noble:

Image

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 12:47 pm
by Turnip Head
Rest in peace Leamiteo and Spaghetti :(

Apologies for not getting to the thread sooner and generally being not very participative the past few days, it's been a busy week at work for me. My theater is hosting the LA Film Fest so I've been working some long, irregular days.
Snow Dog wrote:Consider that I have been after Boogs since pretty much the off. Would a mafia be so single minded (besides my stupid vote for Mongoose when she wasn't lynched)?
But Snowy, you have admitted that you thought Boogs was Smaug. What would stop you, if you are a baddie, from being single minded against him?

I do think mafia can get away with having one track minds such as you had against Boogs, it's one of the better baddie ploys IMO. It makes it easy to not have to keep coming up with new suspicions, and if the baddie ends up being wrong, he can use the exact line that you did about how a baddie wouldn't do that.

But I'm not convinced about you, though you seem to be flailing. But it looks to me like the lynch train is headed your way unless you help slow it down. You've thrown out lots of vague accusations but nothing concrete for anyone to latch onto or to discuss. You say you think there are baddies amongst the Boogs voters, the AP voters, and the people who are coming after you. That reeks of "lynch anyone but me" and doesn't help us make a good decision today. These vague accusations of yours are my biggest ping against you, especially since your case on Boogs was so direct and specific.

To be honest, Leamiteo was going to be one of my talking points today, I thought she latched onto the Boogswagon with relative ease. I'm hoping she was a baddie, but obviously it's not a fruitful discussion for today.

To the players who are feeling a Snow Dog vote, I'm curious to know who you think his teammates might be. The only surface-level connection I would be able to draw to Snow is CBK, but she is insanified, and also appears to suspect Snowy based on her answer to Dom's question, which doesn't seem very teammate-like at this stage. If the Dog is bad, I'm not sure where I'd look next for teammates, which makes me think perhaps he doesn't have any and that lynching him is the wrong call.

As for the Moria goblins, I don't think we're rid of them yet. I think the last one is either inactive, unlucky with their kills, or a mixture of both. And I still suspect that it could be Daisy.

Snowy, what do you think of fingersplints?

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:06 pm
by thellama73
Hedgeowl wrote:This is my entry, although the photo credit belongs to Llama's sister for the picture of me and the husband. I added that nifty speech bubble for my artistic spin. :noble:

Image

That means I get half the gold if it wins/places.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:11 pm
by thellama73
Turnip Head wrote: To the players who are feeling a Snow Dog vote, I'm curious to know who you think his teammates might be.
The first time Boogs took votes, he took them from Snow Dog, Vompatti, A Person, Lizzy, Spacedaisy and CBK. I think at least one of those is aligned with him. We know Vompatti was good, but I remain suspicious of Lizzy and AP, and I am open to looking at Spacedaisy as well. I am still reading CBK as civ, though.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:14 pm
by kneel4justice
Snow Dog wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Snow Dog wrote: If you lynch me you will definitely not nail a baddie.
Yeah, but that's exactly what a baddie would say, so there's no way to know if you're lying.

Dang guys, mafia is hard. :(
I know, and there lies the problem. You have to trust your feelings I guess. Do you truly believe I'm bad, Llama? If so you must vote for me. If you have doubts though please think again.
I don't necessarily like this. As a civvie I would not be saying vote for me, ever. I would have a more whatever attitude, but this seems like you're trying to rely on an emotional appeal and get into Llama's head about 'doubts'.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 2:47 pm
by Snow Dog
kneel4justice wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Snow Dog wrote: If you lynch me you will definitely not nail a baddie.
Yeah, but that's exactly what a baddie would say, so there's no way to know if you're lying.

Dang guys, mafia is hard. :(
I know, and there lies the problem. You have to trust your feelings I guess. Do you truly believe I'm bad, Llama? If so you must vote for me. If you have doubts though please think again.
I don't necessarily like this. As a civvie I would not be saying vote for me, ever. I would have a more whatever attitude, but this seems like you're trying to rely on an emotional appeal and get into Llama's head about 'doubts'.
You play your way, I'll play mine.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 2:49 pm
by Snow Dog
thellama73 wrote:
Turnip Head wrote: To the players who are feeling a Snow Dog vote, I'm curious to know who you think his teammates might be.
The first time Boogs took votes, he took them from Snow Dog, Vompatti, A Person, Lizzy, Spacedaisy and CBK. I think at least one of those is aligned with him. We know Vompatti was good, but I remain suspicious of Lizzy and AP, and I am open to looking at Spacedaisy as well. I am still reading CBK as civ, though.
Well as you know I think CBK is civ too. But as TH said this single mindedness also applies to her as well as me.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 4:16 pm
by Epignosis
juliets wrote:I do want to know if she is your leading suspicion at this point in time.
No. This cat is:
Turnip Head wrote:But I'm not convinced about you, though you seem to be flailing. But it looks to me like the lynch train is headed your way unless you help slow it down.
Eh? He has one vote, and many have stated they may not vote for him.

Post-resurrection TH...let's see what's there:
Turnip Head wrote:Mongoose, if we don't lynch you, who would you suggest we look at instead?
First on-topic post.
Turnip Head wrote:I think Mongoose is more likely to be Gollum than Smaug or a goblin. Gollum likely has The One Ring, which could explain Mongoose's disappearance/escape from the Day 4 lynch. Given the way the past two votes have gone, I think poor Goosey is more likely to be living in a cave pitiful and alone than she is to have any teammates.
Pardon me?
Bilbo Baggins
Possessor of the Ring, which gives him special powers. Also the dwarves' burglar, despite being a homebody. Initially doubted by the dwarves, he continually goes up in their estimation.
Gains +1 vote every 3 Day periods. May have the opportunity to burgle from Smaug.
Regarding the greened, if you thought Mongoose was unlikely to have a team, why vote for her?
Turnip Head wrote:Voting for Mongoose. She didn't respond to my question about who we should be looking at other than her, so it seems like she's given up, which usually means baddie.
Seems like she's given up? Hell, by this point, Mongoose had 12 votes. Her lynch was inevitable.


People TH 1.0 expressed suspicion of:

MP - first vote.
Spacedaisy
k4j - You called him MP's teammate. Voted him Day 2.
Eloh - Last to vote her on Day 3.
Snow Dog :eye:


You know who TH 1.0 did not suspect?
Turnip Head wrote:Llama, I reread Mongoose, and nothing stood out to me tbh. Though I also didn't realize how talkative she's been... I think that's the only thing that stood out, I'm used to Mongoose participating but not being so active especially at the beginning of a game. I have also never seen Mongoose's baddie game before. What makes you think this looks like her baddie game opposed to her civ game?
Not Mongoose. :ponder:
Turnip Head wrote:I will likely be voting one of my bigger suspects, Daisy or Snow Dog, but I'm looking at the votes to see if I need to save Boogs by voting Elo. I do not feel comfortable with the suspicion on Boogs so far.

Linki: Hmm, good point about his vote possibly being forced yesterday, Epi.
Here TH 1.0 expressed interest in saving Boogs. TH 2.0 even voted A Person to save Boogs on Day 7.

But what about Day 6?
Turnip Head wrote:I don't think Boogs should be lynched, I've never understood the case on him and it seems to have snowballed to where he's getting votes just because he's been discussed the most at this point.

I'm voting Daisy. I know she's had a lot going on in RL apparently but I think she's flying low because all her teammates got lynched at the start of the game.
Spacedaisy had no votes at the time. However, Vompatti and Boogs both had 4 votes apiece at the time TH 2.0 voted. This means that the talk of saving Boogs was disingenuous, even if TH 2.0 voted for A Person on Day 7.


That brings me back to Snow Dog.

TH 1.0:
Turnip Head wrote:Snow Dog's vote from yesterday stands out to me:
Snow Dog wrote:I think I suspect Elochin and Mongoose most but I might suck it and see and chuck a vote on k4j .
Snow Dog did not show any suspicions towards k4j until Snow Dog abandoned his top two suspects - both of whom had votes - to "chuck a vote" onto k4j. But then, 11 minutes later, Snow Dog says:
Snow Dog wrote:I just randomised the llama voters and got the wombat.
At the time of Snow Dog's throwaway vote for Vompatti, FZ and k4j were tied at 4 votes apiece, Elo had 2, and Mongoose had 1. There were a few quick random votes in between Snow Dog's first post and his vote post 11 minutes later... I think Snow Dog tried to blend in with the BWT's self-vote and Vomp's "defend Mongoose via randomization" vote. I think Snow Dog wanted to avoid accountability.
Turnip Head wrote:Interesting that Snow Dog only replies to Llama's defense of him, and not to the post I originally made about him which llama is commenting on. Vompatti was literally the only person to vote for llama, and probably the only player who had even expressed suspicion of Llama. Llama needed no saving, no defending, and I would argue that Snow Dog should have known that. That was not the reason Snow Dog should have thrown away his vote, when he seemed to have solid, relevant suspects (Elo and Mongoose) and also seemed briefly to have an itch to "chuck a vote" onto k4j.

Who else tried to buddy up to you, Logan, and got caught red-handed?
Turnip Head wrote:I will likely be voting one of my bigger suspects, Daisy or Snow Dog, but I'm looking at the votes to see if I need to save Boogs by voting Elo. I do not feel comfortable with the suspicion on Boogs so far.

Linki: Hmm, good point about his vote possibly being forced yesterday, Epi.
TH 2.0:
Turnip Head wrote:But I'm not convinced about you, though you seem to be flailing. But it looks to me like the lynch train is headed your way unless you help slow it down.
That suspicion just...dissolved?
Turnip Head wrote:To the players who are feeling a Snow Dog vote, I'm curious to know who you think his teammates might be. The only surface-level connection I would be able to draw to Snow is CBK, but she is insanified, and also appears to suspect Snowy based on her answer to Dom's question, which doesn't seem very teammate-like at this stage. If the Dog is bad, I'm not sure where I'd look next for teammates, which makes me think perhaps he doesn't have any and that lynching him is the wrong call.
Cart before the horse. How do you look for teammates before you've established someone even has a team? I'm pretty sure I know one of yours though. ;)

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 4:22 pm
by thellama73
Rob, how are you feeling about Snow Dog these days? That last post seems to tie TH 2.0 to him. Do you think I'm on the right track, or way off?

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 4:24 pm
by fingersplints
Sorry guys. Been busy today checking out the place I am getting married in and other wedding related shit, and now am trying to catch some of the England game.
Haven't read much since i posted last.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 4:27 pm
by fingersplints
Oh. The vote doesn't end til tomorrow. I thought I only had a half an hour. I'll be back later then :p

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 4:47 pm
by Epignosis
thellama73 wrote:Rob, how are you feeling about Snow Dog these days? That last post seems to tie TH 2.0 to him. Do you think I'm on the right track, or way off?
Does it tie TH 2.0 to Snow Dog, or does TH 2.0 know Snowy is highly unlikely to be bad? I don't know- not important to me at the moment. But the difference between TH1 and TH2 is night and day:

Boogs:

TH1 felt good about Boogs and TH2 felt good about Boogs. Swell.

Mongoose:

TH1 felt good about Mongoose and TH2 felt bad about Mongoose.

Snow Dog:

TH1 felt bad about Snow Dog but TH2 feels good about Snow Dog.

++++

Whereas TH1 was involved in detailed analysis, TH2 says rather vague things. Look at his last post. It's a block of text, but what all does it really say? It's mostly fluff.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 4:53 pm
by thellama73
Epignosis wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Rob, how are you feeling about Snow Dog these days? That last post seems to tie TH 2.0 to him. Do you think I'm on the right track, or way off?
Does it tie TH 2.0 to Snow Dog, or does TH 2.0 know Snowy is highly unlikely to be bad? I don't know- not important to me at the moment. But the difference between TH1 and TH2 is night and day:

Boogs:

TH1 felt good about Boogs and TH2 felt good about Boogs. Swell.

Mongoose:

TH1 felt good about Mongoose and TH2 felt bad about Mongoose.

Snow Dog:

TH1 felt bad about Snow Dog but TH2 feels good about Snow Dog.

++++

Whereas TH1 was involved in detailed analysis, TH2 says rather vague things. Look at his last post. It's a block of text, but what all does it really say? It's mostly fluff.
True, but you're not controlling for other variables. The only difference between TH 1.0 and TH 2.0 is not their role, but also the passage of time and the events that have transpired in the thread. I'm not sure this passes the P < 0.05 confidence interval.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 4:54 pm
by Snow Dog
There are things there I don't even remember thinking or saying.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:03 pm
by thellama73
Snow Dog wrote:There are things there I don't even remember thinking or saying.
Do you think hat is because they are quotes from Turnip Head, and you don't have access to his memories?

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:05 pm
by Snow Dog
thellama73 wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:There are things there I don't even remember thinking or saying.
Do you think hat is because they are quotes from Turnip Head, and you don't have access to his memories?
I am talking about the quotes or quote from me in there.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:08 pm
by thellama73
Snow Dog wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:There are things there I don't even remember thinking or saying.
Do you think hat is because they are quotes from Turnip Head, and you don't have access to his memories?
I am talking about the quotes or quote from me in there.
Now thta I think about it, that makes a lot more sense.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:16 pm
by kneel4justice
Snow Dog wrote:
kneel4justice wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Snow Dog wrote: If you lynch me you will definitely not nail a baddie.
Yeah, but that's exactly what a baddie would say, so there's no way to know if you're lying.

Dang guys, mafia is hard. :(
I know, and there lies the problem. You have to trust your feelings I guess. Do you truly believe I'm bad, Llama? If so you must vote for me. If you have doubts though please think again.
I don't necessarily like this. As a civvie I would not be saying vote for me, ever. I would have a more whatever attitude, but this seems like you're trying to rely on an emotional appeal and get into Llama's head about 'doubts'.
You play your way, I'll play mine.
Yeah, I know. I hope you weren't taking offense here, I wasn't trying to tell you how to play.
I was just saying it didn't sound like something I personally thought a civvie would say, that's all. :)

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:17 pm
by kneel4justice
thellama73 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Rob, how are you feeling about Snow Dog these days? That last post seems to tie TH 2.0 to him. Do you think I'm on the right track, or way off?
Does it tie TH 2.0 to Snow Dog, or does TH 2.0 know Snowy is highly unlikely to be bad? I don't know- not important to me at the moment. But the difference between TH1 and TH2 is night and day:

Boogs:

TH1 felt good about Boogs and TH2 felt good about Boogs. Swell.

Mongoose:

TH1 felt good about Mongoose and TH2 felt bad about Mongoose.

Snow Dog:

TH1 felt bad about Snow Dog but TH2 feels good about Snow Dog.

++++

Whereas TH1 was involved in detailed analysis, TH2 says rather vague things. Look at his last post. It's a block of text, but what all does it really say? It's mostly fluff.
True, but you're not controlling for other variables. The only difference between TH 1.0 and TH 2.0 is not their role, but also the passage of time and the events that have transpired in the thread. I'm not sure this passes the P < 0.05 confidence interval.
For the time passage he should have came in with opinions rather than just discover new ones, IMO.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:18 pm
by Epignosis
I cannot draw with a squirrel shit, but to hell with it, says I.

Smaug's very first portrait:

Image

Isn't he cute? :hugs:

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:32 pm
by Dom
Epig, are you more suspicious of TH or Snow Dog? I think you answered this, but I feel like it got lost.



Here is me, in NYC last year pretended to be a Phantom Dragon Cat thing-- The Smaug of the Opera:
Image
:noble:

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:32 pm
by birdwithteeth11
So I just wanted to mention that I nailed my interview. I feel extremely confident about how I did and I think I got the position! :fiesta:
Snow Dog wrote:OK...anything you want me to attempt to clear up? I thought my posts were OK

1. Maybe some baddies amongst Boogs voters.
2. Is everyone still keen on AP.

I don't see any problem there. But maybe i don't play the game well.
I'll be honest. Right here, it's starting to feel like a plea of desperation I've used many times as a cornered baddie. Often in the past, when I'm bad and have been "caught", I'll start ferreting around and asking people to ask me if there is anything I can clear up. I don't think it makes you bad, but I know it's the only time I've used that strategy. And funny enough, it's never worked for me. :sigh:

I'm thinking you're most likely bad, but you still have time to change my mind.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:33 pm
by Epignosis
Dom, that's not Smaug. Image

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:34 pm
by thellama73
birdwithteeth11 wrote:So I just wanted to mention that I nailed my interviewer. I feel extremely confident about how I did and I think I got her into the position! :fiesta:
Fixed.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:38 pm
by birdwithteeth11
thellama73 wrote:
birdwithteeth11 wrote:So I just wanted to mention that I nailed my interviewer. I feel extremely confident about how I did and I think I got her into the position! :fiesta:
Fixed.
Oh believe me, I wish I did. :noble:

I'll need to look into TH 2.0 a little more tonight. I think Epig might be onto something there.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:43 pm
by kneel4justice
I would say that my two main suspects are Hedgie and TH.


I just reviewed some of Hedgie's posts, and for the most part I did not see any real material as far as suspicions go. There was discussion, but it wasn't striking me as moving forward (and I don't mean offense by this). She was talking more about the game in general rather than suspicions, for example pointing out that the Moria Goblins may be dead, what it's understandable to point that out, there was no moving forward action, IMO. There's also talk about Boogs voters but nothing solid, more trying to get discussion started without actually discussing, at least that is how I read it. Again, I mean no offense by that!
Her vote for AP also didn't require much actual suspicion last day, IMO.


Then with TH, I have just felt the way he came back into the game has not been what I'd expect. He's quiet and not necessarily making moves and cases which I liked and thought spoke good for him last time. His most recent post is a little bit better and more than what I expect from him but it hasn't been consistent so I'm thinking it might have come too late.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:46 pm
by Dom
birdwithteeth11 wrote:So I just wanted to mention that I nailed my interview. I feel extremely confident about how I did and I think I got the position! :fiesta:
yayayyaya
:D

Epignosis wrote:Dom, that's not Smaug. Image
It's an artistic rendition of Smaug. :noble:

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 6:36 pm
by Russtifinko
birdwithteeth11 wrote:So I just wanted to mention that I nailed my interview. I feel extremely confident about how I did and I think I got the position! :fiesta:
This is fucking awesome! Plus 100 real-life gold (cannot be redeemed in this game).

Also, llama's version was equally cool.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 6:38 pm
by Russtifinko
Oh! And before I forget:

Effective immediately, Kylemii is replacing in for A Person, due to the computer issues AP mentioned. He is very excited to be back, but I just went on a 7-hour hike in the brisk (to put it nicely) Norwegian mountains and am freaking exhausted. So he will get his role tomorrow at some point; don't expect too much from him until then.

He will be immune from today's lynch, and from NKs in the coming night. So do not vote AP today if you want your gold.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 7:04 pm
by juliets
Epig, thanks for your answer re: TH. I will re-read him carefully and see if i can see the differences.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 7:21 pm
by Dom
Snow Dog, wanna answer my question at any point? :D

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 7:37 pm
by Dom
Also, I should vote tonight, I think. I am making the drive to NYC tomorrow. :noble:

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 8:08 pm
by Kylemii
Russtifinko wrote:Oh! And before I forget:

Effective immediately, Kylemii is replacing in for A Person, due to the computer issues AP mentioned. He is very excited to be back, but I just went on a 7-hour hike in the brisk (to put it nicely) Norwegian mountains and am freaking exhausted. So he will get his role tomorrow at some point; don't expect too much from him until then.

He will be immune from today's lynch, and from NKs in the coming night. So do not vote AP today if you want your gold.

(in the meantime, if anyone can give a brief summary of the last 7 days I would appreciate it immensely)

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 10:30 pm
by thellama73
Kylemii wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:Oh! And before I forget:

Effective immediately, Kylemii is replacing in for A Person, due to the computer issues AP mentioned. He is very excited to be back, but I just went on a 7-hour hike in the brisk (to put it nicely) Norwegian mountains and am freaking exhausted. So he will get his role tomorrow at some point; don't expect too much from him until then.

He will be immune from today's lynch, and from NKs in the coming night. So do not vote AP today if you want your gold.

(in the meantime, if anyone can give a brief summary of the last 7 days I would appreciate it immensely)
This is mosty from memory, so excuse me if there are errors.

Day 1: MP was transparent as a baddie and was lynched. Yay!
Night1: No death. Yay!
Day 2: FZ was a little less transparent, but we still figured out she was MP's teammate and she died. Yay!
Night 2: You died. Sadness.
Day 3: Elohcin was transparent as MP's teammate and she was lynched for the hat trick, Yay!
Night 3: We must have annoyed Smaug because he started killing in addition to the mafia. Juliets and Turnip Head were tragically killed.
Day 4: The leads to MP dried up and people got quieter.I was convinced Mongose was bad and campaigned hard for her lynch. She survives, adding to her suspicion in the minds of many.
Night 4: Disgruntled Porcupine dies. People are beginning to be super suspicious of Boogs, accusing him of faking being silenced. Dom went away but then he came back.
Day 5: Mongoose's survival is too suspicious to let slide and she is lynched. She was Bilbo. My bad.
Night 5: We all seem a bit lost. reywaS thinks Epig is Smaug and is killed by Smaug. DFaraday is also killed.
Day 6: Despite the Boogs train, I cast an early vote for Vompatti for being inscrutable and am unexpectedly followed, resulting in poor Vomps' death.
Night 6: Abruptly terminated as soon as it begins for reasons which remain obscure. No death.
Day 7: I begin to take heat for leading two civ lynches (even though I didn't mean to.) The Boogs train finally reaches a fever pitch, with the vote split between those who think he is bad, and those who don't (voting for AP due to bad voting record and inactivity). Boogs dies anyway, and was a wood elf.
Night 7: Leamiteo and SpaghettiEverywhere are killed.
Day 8: Is today. There's an art contest. I think Snow Dog's response to the deaths is fishy. Epig thinks Turnip Head's second incarnation is fishy. Some of us think the last of the Moria Goblins has been killed, since they haven't shown up in a while.

Otherwise, there were a couple of contests, events, and a lot of hurt feelings, but we are all cool now.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 10:38 pm
by thellama73
So listen, you guys. I was thinking about Smaug and what his roll says. If you get too close to his treasure, he gets agitated and starts killing. He started killing on Night 3, so I looked at who we almost lynched on Day 3.Sadly, none of the people who received votes that day can be him. Then I thought about how Bilbo can try to burgle Smaug, and thought maybe Mongoose targeted him to wake him up. If that was the case, maybe she would say something in the way of a clue. Again, though, she didn't express any suspicions after Day 3 with the exception of saying Dom isn't dead (which he wasn't, it turns out). Maybe Dom is Smaug?

Then I thought maybe Smaug's kill was delayed somehow, so I looked at who we almost lynched on Day 2. It was K4J. If I had to take a wild stab in the dark over who Smaug is, I would bet K4J at this point. Wild speculation I know, but I welcome anyone else's contributions to this theory.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:08 pm
by kneel4justice
Reaching in 3....2....1....
thellama73 wrote:So listen, you guys. I was thinking about Smaug and what his roll says. If you get too close to his treasure, he gets agitated and starts killing. He started killing on Night 3, so I looked at who we almost lynched on Day 3.Sadly, none of the people who received votes that day can be him. Then I thought about how Bilbo can try to burgle Smaug, and thought maybe Mongoose targeted him to wake him up. If that was the case, maybe she would say something in the way of a clue. Again, though, she didn't express any suspicions after Day 3 with the exception of saying Dom isn't dead (which he wasn't, it turns out). Maybe Dom is Smaug?

Then I thought maybe Smaug's kill was delayed somehow, so I looked at who we almost lynched on Day 2. It was K4J. If I had to take a wild stab in the dark over who Smaug is, I would bet K4J at this point. Wild speculation I know, but I welcome anyone else's contributions to this theory.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:50 pm
by thellama73
I'm not reaching, I'm thinking out loud. No one else has yet discussed WHY Smaug woke up and started killing. Thought I would get the ball rolling.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2014 12:44 am
by Turnip Head
Epignosis wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:I think Mongoose is more likely to be Gollum than Smaug or a goblin. Gollum likely has The One Ring, which could explain Mongoose's disappearance/escape from the Day 4 lynch. Given the way the past two votes have gone, I think poor Goosey is more likely to be living in a cave pitiful and alone than she is to have any teammates.
Pardon me?
Bilbo Baggins
Possessor of the Ring, which gives him special powers. Also the dwarves' burglar, despite being a homebody. Initially doubted by the dwarves, he continually goes up in their estimation.
Gains +1 vote every 3 Day periods. May have the opportunity to burgle from Smaug.
There's also this:
Gollum A pitiful, miserable creature and the owner of a Ring of Power (these facts are connected). Lives alone in a cave, eating raw fish and practicing riddles.
Secret
It says he has a Ring of Power, and it also says "secrets". I thought it was a reasonable explanation.
Epignosis wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:Voting for Mongoose. She didn't respond to my question about who we should be looking at other than her, so it seems like she's given up, which usually means baddie.
Seems like she's given up? Hell, by this point, Mongoose had 12 votes. Her lynch was inevitable.
Mongoose gave up long before her lynch was inevitable, and long before the post where I said she had already given up.

Epignosis wrote:People TH 1.0 expressed suspicion of:

MP - first vote.
Spacedaisy
k4j - You called him MP's teammate. Voted him Day 2.
Eloh - Last to vote her on Day 3.
Snow Dog :eye:

You know who TH 1.0 did not suspect?

Not Mongoose. :ponder:
You're right, I did not suspect Mongoose, and if I had been alive on Day 4 I probably would have defended her from her accusers, as I did not see a case on her but rather bandwagon groupthought. But TH 1.0 was not alive when Mongoose survived a lynch and then acted sketchy afterwards. My opinion of Mongoose changed based on her behavior after her first attempted lynch, not because of my role or because my alignment changed. And there's a gap in my thought process due to the fact that I had no thread presence the first time Mongoose was lynched.
Epignosis wrote:Spacedaisy had no votes at the time. However, Vompatti and Boogs both had 4 votes apiece at the time TH 2.0 voted. This means that the talk of saving Boogs was disingenuous, even if TH 2.0 voted for A Person on Day 7.
I did not vote Vompatti to save Boogs because I did not suspect Vompatti either, and I did not want to contribute to making the lynch between those two. At the time I voted Daisy it did not seem a foregone conclusion to me that the lynch would be Boogs vs Vomps. In fact, Boogs got no more votes after I voted for Daisy. What if the Vompatti voters had voted for Daisy instead? I cannot control what other players do after my vote.

When I voted A Person on Day 7, it was at the tail end of the lynch, and was clearly intended to help save Boogs, as were most of the AP votes that came before mine. You are comparing apples to oranges here as to the purposes of my votes.
Epignosis wrote:That brings me back to Snow Dog.

TH 1.0:
Turnip Head wrote:Snow Dog's vote from yesterday stands out to me:
Snow Dog wrote:I think I suspect Elochin and Mongoose most but I might suck it and see and chuck a vote on k4j .
Snow Dog did not show any suspicions towards k4j until Snow Dog abandoned his top two suspects - both of whom had votes - to "chuck a vote" onto k4j. But then, 11 minutes later, Snow Dog says:
Snow Dog wrote:I just randomised the llama voters and got the wombat.
At the time of Snow Dog's throwaway vote for Vompatti, FZ and k4j were tied at 4 votes apiece, Elo had 2, and Mongoose had 1. There were a few quick random votes in between Snow Dog's first post and his vote post 11 minutes later... I think Snow Dog tried to blend in with the BWT's self-vote and Vomp's "defend Mongoose via randomization" vote. I think Snow Dog wanted to avoid accountability.
Turnip Head wrote:Interesting that Snow Dog only replies to Llama's defense of him, and not to the post I originally made about him which llama is commenting on. Vompatti was literally the only person to vote for llama, and probably the only player who had even expressed suspicion of Llama. Llama needed no saving, no defending, and I would argue that Snow Dog should have known that. That was not the reason Snow Dog should have thrown away his vote, when he seemed to have solid, relevant suspects (Elo and Mongoose) and also seemed briefly to have an itch to "chuck a vote" onto k4j.

Who else tried to buddy up to you, Logan, and got caught red-handed?
Turnip Head wrote:I will likely be voting one of my bigger suspects, Daisy or Snow Dog, but I'm looking at the votes to see if I need to save Boogs by voting Elo. I do not feel comfortable with the suspicion on Boogs so far.

Linki: Hmm, good point about his vote possibly being forced yesterday, Epi.
TH 2.0:
Turnip Head wrote:But I'm not convinced about you, though you seem to be flailing. But it looks to me like the lynch train is headed your way unless you help slow it down.
That suspicion just...dissolved?
Are you reading the posts that you are referencing? Or connecting the dots between them? My suspicion of Snow Dog in the early game was mainly tied to what I viewed as a suspicious "random" vote for Vompatti. It was a point you yourself helped me change my mind about; you brought up the possibility that his vote was forced. I did not pursue further suspicion of him after I considered that.

I did not mention any suspicion of Snow Dog at all, in fact, until the aftermath of the Boogs lynch, where some of his behavior concerns me and some of it gives me pause. I am still considering my opinion of him, and I asked some questions and raised some concerns in my post that Snow Dog has yet to address.
Epignosis wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:To the players who are feeling a Snow Dog vote, I'm curious to know who you think his teammates might be. The only surface-level connection I would be able to draw to Snow is CBK, but she is insanified, and also appears to suspect Snowy based on her answer to Dom's question, which doesn't seem very teammate-like at this stage. If the Dog is bad, I'm not sure where I'd look next for teammates, which makes me think perhaps he doesn't have any and that lynching him is the wrong call.
Cart before the horse. How do you look for teammates before you've established someone even has a team? I'm pretty sure I know one of yours though. ;)
You're wrong about why I'm asking this question. "Cart before the horse" would imply that I'm trying to lynch a suspected Snow Dog teammate before lynching Snow Dog. That's not what I was saying. I was wondering who people thought Snow Dog's teammates were if they suspected him, because as of yet I'm not seeing much evidence that he has any teammates, which makes me think he might not be a baddie. Snow Dog might be the fall guy.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2014 7:25 am
by Epignosis
thellama73 wrote:Night 5: We all seem a bit lost. reywaS thinks Epig is Smaug and is killed by Smaug.
That's inaccurate. reywaS thought I was a Townie Goblin.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2014 8:01 am
by thellama73
I stand corrected. :)

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2014 9:10 am
by Dom
Llama, I love the enthusiasm about finding Smaug, but I am not Smaug :p


I am voting Snow Dog. I am leaving for he City at noon. I don't want to forget. :eek:

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2014 10:27 am
by juliets
Snow Dog, I'm curious as to why you won't answer dom's question about who you thought was shady. Your answer, as I saw it, was I don't know. I'm hoping that was just a heat of the moment answer and you can either explain who at the time you thought was shady or explain why you won't tell us. I just don't understand I guess but it is bothering me.

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2014 10:57 am
by Russtifinko
Just a heads up, this weekend is my only full one in Bergen, and I am planning to take full advantage of it. There's karaoke tonight, a fjord cruise tomorrow, and probably other spontaneous things.

All polls and such will stay on time. However, host posts tonight and tomorrow will almost assuredly be a few hours late, and I will likely not respond to PMs as quickly as usual.

Kylemii is getting his role now and officially in the game.

Thanks for your understanding, and I hope you're all enjoying your Fridays!

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2014 12:11 pm
by Snow Dog
juliets wrote:Snow Dog, I'm curious as to why you won't answer dom's question about who you thought was shady. Your answer, as I saw it, was I don't know. I'm hoping that was just a heat of the moment answer and you can either explain who at the time you thought was shady or explain why you won't tell us. I just don't understand I guess but it is bothering me.
Like I said, I don't know. But let me expand.

Someone said there were shady characters amongst the boogs voters and asa boogs voter myself and a believer that he was bad (though having some doubts at this stage) I hit back by saying there weres omeshady voters amongst thev Ap voters. It didn't really mean anything otherthanI presumede that there wereb withnoonespecificin mind.

AnywayIamre3ally busy with visitorsb coming so will probs not rspond much more

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2014 1:28 pm
by Captain Bunny Killer
Snow. Rererereread Read Snotead *Vow. Snotead Snow. Snow. Snow. *Vow. *Vow. *Vow. Res *Vow. Snow. *Vow. Snow. *Vow. Snow. Read *Vow. *Votes Snotead Snoteres Snotes Snotead Snow. Snotes Read Reread *Voteread *Vow. Snow. *Votead Snow. Res *Vow. Snow. Res *Vow. Snotead Read Snoteread Snow. *Vow. Snow. Res Res Snow. Res Snoteread Res Snow. *Votead *Votes Res Res *Vow. *Vow. *Vow. Res Snow. Snotes Snoteread Snow. Snow. Snow. Reres Read *Vow. Snotead Snow. Read *Vow. Snow. *Vow. Snow. Snow. Snow. Snotes

Re: The Hobbit Mafia: Day 8

Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2014 1:32 pm
by Snow Dog
Captain Bunny Killer wrote:Snow. Rererereread Read Snotead *Vow. Snotead Snow. Snow. Snow. *Vow. *Vow. *Vow. Res *Vow. Snow. *Vow. Snow. *Vow. Snow. Read *Vow. *Votes Snotead Snoteres Snotes Snotead Snow. Snotes Read Reread *Voteread *Vow. Snow. *Votead Snow. Res *Vow. Snow. Res *Vow. Snotead Read Snoteread Snow. *Vow. Snow. Res Res Snow. Res Snoteread Res Snow. *Votead *Votes Res Res *Vow. *Vow. *Vow. Res Snow. Snotes Snoteread Snow. Snow. Snow. Reres Read *Vow. Snotead Snow. Read *Vow. Snow. *Vow. Snow. Snow. Snow. Snotes
Throwing me under the bus?