Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
For the last time. My treatment of Gavial was that I thought it was likely he was mafia, and I wanted him to spew the fuck out of his teammates. I have just finished a game where us two were the mafia team, and he death tunnelled me for no reason from the get go, and it looked very janky, so if he was mafia I wanted to give him ample opportunity to get messy in the thread and create more stuff around him.
@Chloe I just realised you probably haven't read my explanations for this, so fair comment on your end. I just got annoyed because I feel like I've explained this a lot. And it's like people are asking "Why would scum do this" and come up with "No compute", but they don't ask "Why would town do this" and then take into account the actual reason why. (Or at least one of the reasons, other being I just wanted to create [stuff])Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:49 amFor the last time. My treatment of Gavial was that I thought it was likely he was mafia, and I wanted him to spew the fuck out of his teammates. I have just finished a game where us two were the mafia team, and he death tunnelled me for no reason from the get go, and it looked very janky, so if he was mafia I wanted to give him ample opportunity to get messy in the thread and create more stuff around him.
I've explained this a few times now. I don't really see what's so crazy about it.
If you think Alison's posts are wolfy, is dya bussing Alison?
lol xpostVulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:22 amIf you think Alison's posts are wolfy, is dya bussing Alison?
Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 10:56 am The - s are in chronological order.
Alison:
- Assumes that Gavial is "anti-town" rather than "mafia" in her very first post about Gavial. Calls his behavior NAI despite the presence of metareads in the thread at that point. (Nevermind that those meta reads were wrong, this is still important.)
- Calls Gavial "rand" and calls the people who vote for him based on him being anti-town "lazy."
- Claims Dizzy defending Gavial is a good look for Dizzy because it'd be a bad move for wolf!Dizzy regardless of Gavial's alignment. I actually agree with this point. Mentions that there's a solid chance of Gavial being a wolf.
- Responds to Amy's wolfread on Gavial by saying she isn't closed off to the possibility of Gavial being mafia.
- "I'm not ready to lock Gavial town." Weird progression jump there. It's like she's bouncing around a limbo where she sometimes implies Gavial's town and sometimes doesn't. This megahedge is odd.
- Calls Gavial's level of caring about the game NAI, thus continuing to refuse to call Gavial's alignment.
- Claims she isn't a Gavial expert.
- Continues to push the line that Gavial's NAI to her.
- Calls Gavial's VT claim kinda towny.
I... think this looks towny when viewed as a whole and in-context? KZA was the main CW yesterday, and KZA was a wolf. Alison spending the entire day refusing to call Gavial's alignment doesn't seem like a wolf play. I think she'd take one of two stances here: either bus or just push Gavial and listen to people's metareads. I'd even argue doing the latter benefits Alison more - not only does she get a misyeet, but she takes no blame for it, since she had given a lot of consideration toward Gavial's alignment and she wasn't the person with the mistaken metareads on Gavial. Her calling Gavial's VT claim "kinda towny" close to EoD also makes it more likely KZA gets yeeted, which prevents the wolves from getting a rolecop check. Their chances of getting it were tiny last night, since KZA was always getting vigged (they'd have to RB exactly the vig), and KZA would go day 2 anyway in that case. Still, it would be beneficial for the wolves (1 rolecop check is better than 0), and Alison didn't go for it. My impression of her wolfgame is that she knows what's optimal and what isn't. In that case, she didn't have much to lose by just accepting the Gavial push and joining it. In fact, her contrarian stance on Gavial is what got her scumread in the first place, yet another point in favor of Alison being town.
Might not be able to get all of these out, but I wanted to get this one out specifically.
I've been saying you're town.Marluxion wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:47 amdo you have no take on me at all? we just wolfed together in deck mafia so i find it hard to believe you'd have absolutely nothing to say about me at allAlison wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 6:26 pm No I just toggled back and forth between catching up and reading the latest page. That's a pretty silly accusation.
I've been honest about my detachment from the thread from literally my first post, and tbh it's also pretty WIM reducing to tell you all that Gavial is town, be proven correct, and then run up for TMI.
I think there is at least 1 in Amy/dya, and [c4, Dizzy] would constitute the rest of my POE. You're an unknown. Vulgard/Sunbae/nutella/Arete/Chloe are not really concerns.
Visor/Zack are in the "idk but they haven't pinged me" category. I see others have suspicions there so since I'm not confident on them my plan is to focus on what I am confident on, specifically my POE and towncore, and just sheep my townreads on Visor/Zack.
okAmy wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:15 am@AlisonAmy wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:07 am i'm tired and i wanna make sure people still have posts
@Alison
@Arete
@bronana
@c4e5g3d5
@dyachei
@Dyslexicon
@Gavial
@Hally
@Marluxion
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@nutella
@outed wolf
@staypositivefriend
@sunbae
@Tangrowth
@Vulgard
hardclaim tracker
n1 zack no visit
be here in earnest in like 10 minutes
@Arete
@c4e5g3d5
@dyachei
@Dyslexicon
@Marluxion
@sunbae
skipped the people who were already here
also i didnt even proofread the first list so probably for the best that i get a mulligan
this statement about deck mafia is factually inaccurateMarluxion wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 7:13 am ....none of that screams town to me even remotely vulgard
like
not at all
she did the exact same thing in deck mafia by pushing one of her mates (ONLU) when it wasn't even close to necessary just because he was a lhf
nothing in that is doing it for more on alison and i'm kinda surprised it is doing anything for you
@Arete I can't give examples because I don't remember exactly which games they're from. My mind doesn't really work like that. Worse than his progression was his refusal to help me understand it. Yeah, yeah, I know I demanded posts but he didn't even share the general strokes of why spf was suddenly a villager to him and it was a sudden change.Arete wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:42 pm @dyachei can you give examples of (non-incompetent) wolves having bad progression in the specific way that you're accusing c4 of having bad progression (literally 180ing on previous strong reads with no explanation)? I'm trying to figure out if we have a legitimate difference in opinion on how wolves tend to play vs. whether you're just making things up
no, I'm not sticking with old reasons. More proof you're not reading my posts. That's what started my suspicion. As the game has gone on and alison hasn't done more, my suspicion has grown. She's given me no reason to see her as a villager.nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:54 amyeah i agree with thisstaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:18 am i looked through the majority of alison's ISO last night and still came out of it feeling cold and indifferent - i have never been in a game with her before where i have been so apathetic about her posts, and that includes a wolfgame i just saw from her where she was putting in similar lack of effort. i have genuinely been wondering if alison plans to die and has been effectively in some form of anti-spew, because the lack of content even relating to the people that she's focusing on is just surreal, and i don't know what i'm supposed to make of it. she's in my POE.
this too -- i think it's a helpful articulation that dya is sticking with the old and imo weak reasons to suspect alisonstaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:18 am i've spoken at length about my concerns with dyachei, and they are concerns that are still resonating in the back of my mind even as i've held back on my push for the latter half of this dayphase. i feel that dyachei and i are looking at very different games. they are suspicious of c4 and nutella even though those two are some of my strongest villager reads. they scumread alison even though their reasoning for scumreading alison has primarily fallen flat for me. (specifically, the logic about alison being informed by her partners that dyachei was calling gavial anti-town just Does Not Make Sense to me. i don't get it! it doesn't feel like a villagery thought process to have.) i do feel that dyachei's posts have overall improved in tone and energy today, but i'm not there on them being a villager at all. dyachei is in my POE.
man i really dont know what to do with this dichotomy atm lol
i was somewhat concerned about visor/alison as a pair and that was exacerbated with visor's reactions to when alison popped in thinking it was eod. that was all weird vibes
I'm always called wolf early. It's a thing and I hate itsunbae wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:17 am Sometimes when a situation is really making me struggle it helps to break down the problem into smaller pieces and find a solution that covers all of them:
Main Problem: I am having difficulty parsing the Dya/Alison stuff
Mini Problem #1: I do not feel like Alison has provided much in terms of large scale takes this game. I do not believe Alison has attempted to discern the alignment of various players but rather has started with a conclusion on said players and argued from there when it was relevant to the discussion. I also believe that - from what I've heard about Alison - town Alison would be quite insightful and bringing their own point of view to the table, making me think about various things in new ways this game.
Mini Problem #2: I do not feel like Dya has stretched out their world view at all nor have really been trying to solve the game as a whole. Rather it's been a lot more of a narrow swath of focus (unless specifically asked) and a constant reiteration of the main day 1 read.
Mini Problem #1 & #2 issues: Alison and Dya have been after each other since midway through day 1. I do not know which person to believe here. I spent some time pushing Dya and spent more time defending Dya and being skeptical of Alison.
Mini Problem #3: Both of these players have been declared highly likely wolves from multiple players in the game.
Mini Problem #4: Both of them have basically dismissed any pressure in their direction (sounds like OMGUS is the phrase being used often? But I think thats the gist of it).
Potential Solution?: Dya was called wolf early. Began to attack Alison. Alison was getting town reads early. People started to believe Dya instead. Both players pretty much froze in place as that happened. Neither branched out too much. Neither started solving around their wolf read. They've spun their wheels on each other. KZA died overnight. Both of them are just pretty down and disheartened. They are both wolves that were going for some distance and got locked into a situation they didn't know how to handle. My difficulty in parsing this interaction is because the answer is *both* of them rather than one.
Probability? Uncertain. Does it answer all of my issues? It would. Gonna ponder overnight.
Amy is just townVulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:59 am I think Alison's competent enough to do this as a wolf, but I still think she is a villager. @ Chloe
@ visor That part is weird because like. That's not what was happening day 1. Day 1 Amy had a few posts where it looked like she was pocketing dya and dya proceeded to townread her. Come today, Amy is now wolfreading Dya and Dya is townreading Amy. I'm not sure why she'd turn on someone who townreads her if she were a wolf, especially today, when far fewer people townread her. What would be the point of the day 1 thing then? It's possible she's following the thread's concerns about Dya in an effort to stay alive, but it seems counterproductive for wolf!Amy to do.
As for what it means about Dya, I don't know. I feel like townreading Amy in this situation is anti-wincon for their wolfgame, since they could just flip their read on Amy like Amy flipped her read on them. It would be justified. But then again, it literally doesn't matter to dya since dya's been insistent on pushing Alison all game. Besides, I've just checked ISOs and while Amy's shifting her read on Dya, Dya doesn't seem to be paying attention to it at all. I'm not sure if v!Dya ignores that.
There's also the fact you say Amy's wolfreading Dya, but Amy's currently voting on the same wagon as Dya.
Amy's wolfread on Alison is weird. Her only reasoning for putting her toward the bottom of her readlist (apparently) is that she isn't comfortable voting anywhere else. This was earlier during day 2. She also says that Alison is playing an underwhelming game if town. I... don't see many other explanations for why she even wolfreads Alison. She should be townreading Dya based on this mindset as well, since Dya is by far the strongest Alison pusher in this game and Amy calls an Alison vote her most comfortable vote. Her shifting her read on Dya should mean something for her Alison read as well, no? I'd be more okay with it if Amy straight up said the Alison voting was self-pres, but she claims to genuinely believe Alison is a likely wolf - yet I find it hard to find any arguments for it in her ISO. The read just looks fake and birthed from a self-preservation instinct.
Chloe, what do you find villagery from alison? that she seemingly has no agenda? And while I bus as a wolf, I never bus like thisChloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:41 am continuing through d1:
multiple people have brought up c4's shortened readslists and asked him to please stop using that formatting. it actually kinda rubs me the wrong way that hes pretty much ignoring requests to cooperate. maybe hes smug town that wont change his playstyle to appeal to the masses but i feel like he'd state that somewhere?
just had a really dumb chloe moment
thought someone tmi'd their buddy but then realized i just suck at reading
lol
dizzy's treatment of seth is a big ol' whatze fuck but so incredibly unnecessary and against the grain as a wolf that i feel it's villagery
spf actually bothering to interact with seth and trying to dig into his brain is a good look as it seems the consensus is to just brush him off as wolfy and accept that he's the chop. no dunk-fest or painting him in a bad light. this doesnt feel like the spf i saw in CoV either. no indication of hardbussing for the c r e d, and her posts dont feel overly padded? also a distinct lack of lampshading which is good
(i'll also add on that her progression on me doesnt give me any bad vibes)
tossing out the How To Find SPF As Town guide pretty early on initially felt premature to me and very out of place. didnt like it. im usually not a fan of that type of thing. though upon re-read im actually leaning in the opposite direction now. its ever-so-slightly townie to break the flow of the thread willingly.. and at the same time doing something blatantly gross (self-meta! woo!) yet her post doesn't feel like shes using it as a crutch or gaslighting (for lack of a better word) the thread into thinking shes been villagery af bro! (either of which i'd expect from a wolf more than just a 'hi heres a little thing on how to figure me out. do with it what you will i guess' and leaving it at that)
reading the whole sunbae/spf interaction with a clearer mind makes me realize i was pretty damn conf-biased my first time around just because of how icky i found the guide in general, and i kinda.. wanted her to be a wolf a little bit? still think sunbae DIVING in and going ham, as well as the follow-up discussion with spf, is fairly villagery
this isnt really the type of associative-read i'd expect from a woofer? this is a read i think applies *much* more to anyone newer to wolfing, or fm in general, but it goes a level deeper than what i'm used to seeing from wolves so ye its a good vibe
pretty much every new nut posts just solidifies my read there
on a related note i didnt mention this earlier i dont think (?) but i think the fact that dya hasnt found nut when im like.. really confident there, is concerning? im see-saw between it being wolfy and it being villagery but i dont really understand it at this point - and from what i saw it was mostly based on the fact that shes not as.. bouncy as they're used to? @dyachei i can you expand on your nut read for me please? i could be getting snowed, but i really dont think i am. i'd appreciate a more fleshed out post or two that i can dig into please (will check and make sure i didnt miss anything from you wrt nut after im done with this)
im reading through alison's take regarding seth and i can see an argument for it being tmi - but i dont get why she would do that and what she thinks she gets from his flip? she'd have to know she'd look bad? like, if shes a wolf i cant help but get the feeling shes positioning herself to be bussed and put the other wolves in a better position, but also.. we're down a wolf and thats super risky and not optimal. im preflipping a bit but if alison flips wolf PR i think dya is just lickity lock. if she flips goon i think theres a chance she could be being bussed *i guess* (heavily heavily doubt tbqh) but i dont fully feel like fully entertaining either of these worlds without a flip. i personally think shes flippin v.
lol @ nut just assuming seth is a wolf lmao - then in the next post remembering wolf prs exist. like cmonn the girl is a villager
feel like arete would just be contributing to the dunk-fest on seth and moreso trying to stop people from finding him, rather than bringing up actual legitimate points in his favor. not a very strong read of mine since i didnt see a lot of action to back up their words and this is mostly based on What I Expect From Wolfrete but yeah its a better look than not tbh. and their fear that they'll be paired with seth if he flips w is kinda pure yeah
this post from hally has good thoughts wrt marl - i vibe with them
the series of posts here has some of the upbeat chaotic energy i expect from villamorl
i'm a HUGE sucker for emotions and seeing dya get upset at how people are treating them is hard for me to not assign some townpoints. otherwise i dont have many thoughts on them wrt d1 (but ugh this feels TMI-y considering their read on nut :/)
if wagons stay like this i'll probably be going dya just because of a few things i find as somewhat townie from alison
dya is my first iso to look into in the morning
ohmygod im finally caught up on everything
i finally understand what the hell is happening in this game lmao
i can see clearly now, the rain is gone
bye