The Syndicate

Well
I guess I wasted my night worrying that I was actually wrong on Nutella lmao

Im not going to claim food btw. I think that's best left to people who aren't in the PoE. I'll claim one of the other items if it prevents a wolf from getting them, though.

So interesting kill. I don't know why wolves would kill nutella here, as it extremely narrows the possibility of who the wolves can be regardless of how nutella flips. The only way I could see it happening is if wolves were really confident they could win if only the other team gets destroyed.

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

You have no fucking clue how weird I feel about all of this, btw

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:05 pm [VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

You have no fucking clue how weird I feel about all of this, btw

So, if threads are even, you're a wolf. How do you plead?

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:05 pm So interesting kill. I don't know why wolves would kill nutella here, as it extremely narrows the possibility of who the wolves can be regardless of how nutella flips. The only way I could see it happening is if wolves were really confident they could win if only the other team gets destroyed.

To me it proves we have an extra wolf on the West side, tbh.
I'm not sure why they'd want to prove that, though. Seems to me the kill would've come from whoever that is, though, because logically a wolf on the East side wouldn't want to box themselves in like this.

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:06 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:05 pm [VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

You have no fucking clue how weird I feel about all of this, btw

So, if threads are even, you're a wolf. How do you plead?

I plead not guilty.
But that solves the Davos mystery for me.

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:05 pm So interesting kill. I don't know why wolves would kill nutella here, as it extremely narrows the possibility of who the wolves can be regardless of how nutella flips. The only way I could see it happening is if wolves were really confident they could win if only the other team gets destroyed.

So, what that tells me is the culprit is someone who gambled on nutella and lost. That might point to WWA, as I can see them being confident that the could win a thunderdome with Wilgy. Still, nutella did suspect Wilgy for a while, but that would be a major strategical blunder from Wilgy unless they have an ace up their sleeve like Davos being a wolf.

I came up with this whole theory overnight that the Davos account belonged to Nutella and she was using it to try to clear herself as a wolf but I'm guessing Davos would've vanished if it were nutella's, and Nutella flipped town anyway so that whole point is moot.

But in that case it has to be Wilgy, unless it's an external player.

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:09 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:05 pm So interesting kill. I don't know why wolves would kill nutella here, as it extremely narrows the possibility of who the wolves can be regardless of how nutella flips. The only way I could see it happening is if wolves were really confident they could win if only the other team gets destroyed.

So, what that tells me is the culprit is someone who gambled on nutella and lost. That might point to WWA, as I can see them being confident that the could win a thunderdome with Wilgy. Still, nutella did suspect Wilgy for a while, but that would be a major strategical blunder from Wilgy unless they have an ace up their sleeve like Davos being a wolf.

I actually have zero confidence I'd win a thunderdome against Wilgy. I was going to thunderdome Nutella with the assumption I had a 50/50 shot or slightly less of winning. It's probably a good thing I didn't have to do that
But Wilgy went from everyone's poe to everyone's not-poe yesterday, with the exception of Radishes who voted Wilgy until it looked like he was doomed. So honestly? Idk what the strategy is. I know everything I say can be easily faked, but I'm just as confused as you are because I was so sure someone in West Facility was going to die. If both wolves had been in East, it would make sense for both of them to kill in West to try to keep themselves afloat. If one wolf was on each side, it would still make more sense to kill in West because the East wolf wouldn't know, and the West wolf would want to keep the PoE in the East. So none of this makes any sense to me.

Do we think there's a realistic chance that Davos *is* an external player? Did you guys ever discuss in the West Facility whether you thought Scrappy was one of you, or an external player?
Just because I'm considering whether it's possible for Davos to be a wolf without being attached to anyone in East (Wilgy/me). I'm not really sure Wilgy would speculate on whether Davos is an external player or not if he's the puppetmaster, and Davos's votes haven't matched with Wilgy's, either. And Cape's flip proves it's impossible for Davos to belong to anyone from West.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:16 pm Do we think there's a realistic chance that Davos *is* an external player? Did you guys ever discuss in the West Facility whether you thought Scrappy was one of you, or an external player?
Just because I'm considering whether it's possible for Davos to be a wolf without being attached to anyone in East (Wilgy/me). I'm not really sure Wilgy would speculate on whether Davos is an external player or not if he's the puppetmaster, and Davos's votes haven't matched with Wilgy's, either. And Cape's flip proves it's impossible for Davos to belong to anyone from West.

The only reason this is important is because if it is a separate player, then Davos could be a wolf we're letting skate by because of the assumption they're attached to someone.

That poison on TSP sure was disappointing, btw
Not the worst choice I guess, but still disappointing

I strongly believe it was a town choice, though

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:18 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:16 pm Do we think there's a realistic chance that Davos *is* an external player? Did you guys ever discuss in the West Facility whether you thought Scrappy was one of you, or an external player?
Just because I'm considering whether it's possible for Davos to be a wolf without being attached to anyone in East (Wilgy/me). I'm not really sure Wilgy would speculate on whether Davos is an external player or not if he's the puppetmaster, and Davos's votes haven't matched with Wilgy's, either. And Cape's flip proves it's impossible for Davos to belong to anyone from West.

The only reason this is important is because if it is a separate player, then Davos could be a wolf we're letting skate by because of the assumption they're attached to someone.

If they're an outside player, it doesn't matter because they've done jack shit anyway. The only reason to be interested in such a concern is for looking at meta/etc., which wouldn't be helpful anyway given Davos's ISO. This looks like a distraction at this point.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:19 pm That poison on TSP sure was disappointing, btw
Not the worst choice I guess, but still disappointing

Probably either a wolf ability, or an effect of the card that TSP chose

If Davos is a viable lunch option I would definitely include them in the PoE, fwiw
Right now I believe it's Wilgy/Delta if Davos is not a separate player, but if Davos is separate then I think they can be one of the wolves

Idk why I typed this post and never actually hit send lol, sorry

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:21 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:18 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:16 pm Do we think there's a realistic chance that Davos *is* an external player? Did you guys ever discuss in the West Facility whether you thought Scrappy was one of you, or an external player?
Just because I'm considering whether it's possible for Davos to be a wolf without being attached to anyone in East (Wilgy/me). I'm not really sure Wilgy would speculate on whether Davos is an external player or not if he's the puppetmaster, and Davos's votes haven't matched with Wilgy's, either. And Cape's flip proves it's impossible for Davos to belong to anyone from West.

The only reason this is important is because if it is a separate player, then Davos could be a wolf we're letting skate by because of the assumption they're attached to someone.

If they're an outside player, it doesn't matter because they've done jack shit anyway. The only reason to be interested in such a concern is for looking at meta/etc., which wouldn't be helpful anyway given Davos's ISO. This looks like a distraction at this point.

I mean if we're going back to the discussion we had yesterday about whether davos's vote counts or not
Then what if they're a wolf not tied to another player and we need to kill them?

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:22 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:19 pm That poison on TSP sure was disappointing, btw
Not the worst choice I guess, but still disappointing

Probably either a wolf ability, or an effect of the card that TSP chose

Why would you jump to assuming it would be strictly from a wolf?
I said I believe it came from town, because I believe I know who it was from, and I think they're town.
You have no comment on that?

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:53 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:22 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:19 pm That poison on TSP sure was disappointing, btw
Not the worst choice I guess, but still disappointing

Probably either a wolf ability, or an effect of the card that TSP chose

Why would you jump to assuming it would be strictly from a wolf?
I said I believe it came from town, because I believe I know who it was from, and I think they're town.
You have no comment on that?

Why would town kill in my side when the wolves are likely from the other side? TSP wasn't even under as much scrutiny as say Delta

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 8:07 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:53 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:22 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:19 pm That poison on TSP sure was disappointing, btw
Not the worst choice I guess, but still disappointing

Probably either a wolf ability, or an effect of the card that TSP chose

Why would you jump to assuming it would be strictly from a wolf?
I said I believe it came from town, because I believe I know who it was from, and I think they're town.
You have no comment on that?

Why would town kill in my side when the wolves are likely from the other side? TSP wasn't even under as much scrutiny as say Delta

Because someone from your side did, in fact, vote TSP yesterday?
I'm just saying, I don't think it was impossible to come from town. At the very least it keeps us from tinfoiling TSP, although as you said, he wasn't under as much scrutiny as Delta.
If you were a wolf and had a free shot of poison, wouldn't you want to take out an obvtown instead? If nobody knows who it's coming from, why would the choice of poison target matter?
Alternatively, a wolf might want to take out someone who's campaigning against them, but TSP only voted Nutella yesterday and now she's flipped town.

Look, whether I like it or not, I'm gonna be crossvoting Wilgy today. But we're not both wolves, and that is exactly why the wolf killed Nutella. There is no other reason for it. It's either Davos if they are a separate player, or someone on the West side.
And I understand that you guys will have to vote me out, as well as Wilgy, in whatever order you want. It doesn't matter. There is no way you should let the two of us live to endgame at this point.
But you are going to have a very hard time sniffing out the last wolf once both Wilgy and I have flipped, and I just hope you can pull through.

@DrWilgy I am voting you as pure PoE again, and I expect that you'll crossvote me in return. But I genuinely want your take on this, too.

I want to get a discussion going, regardless of how today turns out, or which one of us flips, because there's a wolf outside the two of us. Whether it's Davos or someone from the West Facility, they have a pretty good chance of making it to XyLo since I expect that both of us are going to flip before that.

I'll probably flip first, since the nutella kill unquestionably implicates me since I insisted all of yesterday that she was town, against everyone else's paranoia. And that's fine, I'm not going to fight it. But I do want to figure out the solve before I die, because I don't want town to be too shortsighted to pull this off.

Btw if someone gets another vig or poison today, can you please kill Davos so we can see their alignment?
Or at least, keep it on East Facility, don't waste it on West. You have a couple days to vote people in West out once East is dead, after all.

The people who pushed Nutella late in the game are all flipped townies now. Radishes, TSP and Nanook. I really don't get it.

Actually, she might have been killed for backing Radishes on the notion that there's a wolf on the West side

But wouldn't that have to be Delta?
Should I reconsider leetic? I find it a little odd that he doesn't think the TSP poison came from town, but maybe I'm the odd one.
I don't think it's likely that Epi is a wolf, especially if he's the one who poisoned TSP, but it's not like all my reads have been that great. It's been a mixed bag.
I do feel fairly confident that Sig is town, though.

[VOTE: Delta] aubergine

Love Delta, but I should've done this a long time ago.

I think my post got eaten, wtf
I hit post and it vanished

I'm just dooming over a worst-case scenario, though. I should probably keep it in my head instead of inconveniencing the thread with it. I'll shut up for now.

So let's reflect on the situation we currently find ourselves in. This is essentially equivalent to four townies and two serial killers, assuming no remaining ITPs, which is the most common six-player setup I believe so some people think it's balanced (but swingy). Of course, that isn't counting Davos. Still, it would be wise to treat this as essentially LyLo, as there is basically no way for town to win if we mislynch today that doesn't involve wolves crossfiring, and it is not in wolves' best interest to crossfire right now (though it does lead to a bit of a Prisoner's Dilemma-esque situation). The nutella kill is either a sign of desperation, or of a wolf confident that they already have the win. It may not just be a matter of getting a wolf today, we might have to get the correct wolf, but unfortunately claiming isn't allowed so there is little mechanical information to work off. We're still in a situation where if WWA/Wilgy is t/t, one side has six wolves while the other has two, and don't let people forget that.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:41 pm [VOTE: Delta] aubergine

Love Delta, but I should've done this a long time ago.

Why aren't you going after anyone on the other side?

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:39 pm But wouldn't that have to be Delta?
Should I reconsider leetic? I find it a little odd that he doesn't think the TSP poison came from town, but maybe I'm the odd one.
I don't think it's likely that Epi is a wolf, especially if he's the one who poisoned TSP, but it's not like all my reads have been that great. It's been a mixed bag.
I do feel fairly confident that Sig is town, though.

Why would town poison TSP when wolves are considerably more likely to come from the other side? Hell, the poison could have solved the Davos problem, but whatever. This feels like flailing

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:25 pm The people who pushed Nutella late in the game are all flipped townies now. Radishes, TSP and Nanook. I really don't get it.

Hmm... I don't see why you would've killed nutella /s

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:49 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:41 pm [VOTE: Delta] aubergine

Love Delta, but I should've done this a long time ago.

Why aren't you going after anyone on the other side?

Because I don't care about that.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 3:01 am

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:49 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:41 pm [VOTE: Delta] aubergine

Love Delta, but I should've done this a long time ago.

Why aren't you going after anyone on the other side?

Because I don't care about that.

You don't care about winning?

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:51 am

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:39 pm But wouldn't that have to be Delta?
Should I reconsider leetic? I find it a little odd that he doesn't think the TSP poison came from town, but maybe I'm the odd one.
I don't think it's likely that Epi is a wolf, especially if he's the one who poisoned TSP, but it's not like all my reads have been that great. It's been a mixed bag.
I do feel fairly confident that Sig is town, though.

Why would town poison TSP when wolves are considerably more likely to come from the other side? Hell, the poison could have solved the Davos problem, but whatever. This feels like flailing

Because town was busy speculating on whether there was a wolf on your side too yesterday?

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:52 am

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:25 pm The people who pushed Nutella late in the game are all flipped townies now. Radishes, TSP and Nanook. I really don't get it.

Hmm... I don't see why you would've killed nutella /s

Has it occcured to you for even one second that I'm not stupid enough to kill someone that everyone else EXCEPT me thinks is PoE?

Like geez, dude, I don't throw the game

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 11:33 pm So let's reflect on the situation we currently find ourselves in. This is essentially equivalent to four townies and two serial killers, assuming no remaining ITPs, which is the most common six-player setup I believe so some people think it's balanced (but swingy). Of course, that isn't counting Davos. Still, it would be wise to treat this as essentially LyLo, as there is basically no way for town to win if we mislynch today that doesn't involve wolves crossfiring, and it is not in wolves' best interest to crossfire right now (though it does lead to a bit of a Prisoner's Dilemma-esque situation). The nutella kill is either a sign of desperation, or of a wolf confident that they already have the win. It may not just be a matter of getting a wolf today, we might have to get the correct wolf, but unfortunately claiming isn't allowed so there is little mechanical information to work off. We're still in a situation where if WWA/Wilgy is t/t, one side has six wolves while the other has two, and don't let people forget that.

I'm reading this post again and I don't get a couple of things.

You accuse me of killing Nutella, and say I'm flailing, but why would I secure my own death that way? I've already been prepared to flip since yesterday, it's not gonna matter when I'm gone except that town loses one more. And that matters because we need to find wolves. You haven't stopped to think at all that maybe it's not me; you just came straight in and have been pushing me, which is fine, but it's already confbias if you're not considering other scenarios, like where it's Wilgy and not me.

You also have repeatedly disregarded the scenario where Davos is an external player to throw off the player count, or Scrappy was, and there was an odd number of players to begin with that may result in an imbalance of wolf distributions. And on that note, you've also ignored that I pointed out the kill on Nutella indicates that there's a wolf in the West. I would not kill Nutella because I'm not an idiot, I have reason to doubt that Wilgy would kill her for the same reason, and I also know for a FACT now that we do not have two wolves in the East, unless Davos counts as a wolf on their own.

So instead of ignoring or shooting down what I say, why don't you give this some consideration? Unless you're pushing an agenda.

I mean you say that last part about if Wilgy and I are both town, the wolf split would be 6/2, but you've also said previously that you believe it's impossible for the game to be set up like that, so I don't think you believe it's a possibility so much as youre reminding people it's ludicrous. And that's fine, I don't believe it's 6/2 either, but you don't seem to be willing to consider it's 5/3.

Arrr

[VOTE: WinwardAway] aubergine

While I did initially read Wilgy effort as town I’m not thinking how MR fell on the sword and even Winds seems willing to that’s much more townie view at this point then fighting hard to stay in.

I also think Nutella dying was interesting, she was obviously a mafia hit and I’m wondering if mafia either thought she was mafia or it was someone she was town reading.

Either way with two teams left we can still hunt within the POE today.

I do plan to try and do an NKA of Nutella based off her posts yesterday, but for the time being I think Wilgy is the right choice for today.

And then I could see one wolf in West still or maybe Davos is actually a wolf and worth voting for

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 3:04 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 3:01 am

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:49 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:41 pm [VOTE: Delta] aubergine

Love Delta, but I should've done this a long time ago.

Why aren't you going after anyone on the other side?

Because I don't care about that.

You don't care about winning?

I don't care about playing against the hosts.

Do you have confirmation that the mafia members were evenly divided?

I can accept that as a possibility, but I'm not operating as though that's gospel.

The good news for me is that NBA goes on break after tonight, and the deadline here is tomorrow. I can finally roll up my sleeves proper.

[VOTE: Delta] aubergine

I’m joining Epi on this wagon for now, but I’d also be fine with a Wilgy or even Davos vote

If scooby was a town proxy and Davos is a mafia proxy could they be the last member of the mafia team