[END] The Syndicate's 2013 Game of Champions

[Nevinera]

Well, since you have decided only to respond to that part, and not say how it actually will not work in your mind, but only automatically condemn me, is a bit suspect.

What part would you like me to respond to? I can hardly dump three classes worth of information and 8 years of experience in defense of my opinion on the topic.
Of course, if you would like to release a list of the libraries you're using and at least some of your source code, I'd be happy to look for bugs for you and try it on some of my company's sample data sets to see how well it does classifying customer demographics or twitter spam. You might have some chance of success at that latter one, if your code is correct.

I actually did say how it will 'not work in my mind', though. It will not work because you will have insufficient data.
I have no idea why you think you will have enough. You'd need hundreds of games worth of info from a single
person to make any kind of assessment about them with regards to any concrete variable with even a simple Bayesian filter - I doubt there is a single
person playing who has played more than 50 games of online mafia. And as for your assertion that *not* having a single variable means that it's less of a problem... that is completely backwards. having two variables instead of one would *square* the required sample size for any given confidence interval.

And *that* all assumes there even *is* a concrete variable in there representing 'writing style while bad'. Which there of course is not.

[thellama73]

Well, since you have decided only to respond to that part, and not say how it actually will not work in your mind, but only automatically condemn me, is a bit suspect.

What part would you like me to respond to? I can hardly dump three classes worth of information and 8 years of experience in defense of my opinion on the topic.
Of course, if you would like to release a list of the libraries you're using and at least some of your source code, I'd be happy to look for bugs for you and try it on some of my company's sample data sets to see how well it does classifying customer demographics or twitter spam. You might have some chance of success at that latter one, if your code is correct.

I actually did say how it will 'not work in my mind', though. It will not work because you will have insufficient data.
I have no idea why you think you will have enough. You'd need hundreds of games worth of info from a single
person to make any kind of assessment about them with regards to any concrete variable with even a simple Bayesian filter - I doubt there is a single
person playing who has played more than 50 games of online mafia. And as for your assertion that *not* having a single variable means that it's less of a problem... that is completely backwards. having two variables instead of one would *square* the required sample size for any given confidence interval.

And *that* all assumes there even *is* a concrete variable in there representing 'writing style while bad'. Which there of course is not.

As someone who has studied statistics a bit, I would also add that your model assumes no change in style over time unrelated to baddie or civvieness. Even if you had hundreds of games worth of data, they would have to have taken place over many years. The assumption that players will not have refined and updated their style over time is unrealistic, and I can think of no way to adequately control for time in this case.

[insertnamehere]

Well, since you have decided only to respond to that part, and not say how it actually will not work in your mind, but only automatically condemn me, is a bit suspect.

What part would you like me to respond to? I can hardly dump three classes worth of information and 8 years of experience in defense of my opinion on the topic.
Of course, if you would like to release a list of the libraries you're using and at least some of your source code, I'd be happy to look for bugs for you and try it on some of my company's sample data sets to see how well it does classifying customer demographics or twitter spam. You might have some chance of success at that latter one, if your code is correct.

No thank you, I don't fully trust you, why would I give you the resources to recreate what I did?

I actually did say how it will 'not work in my mind', though. It will not work because you will have insufficient data.
I have no idea why you think you will have enough. You'd need hundreds of games worth of info from a single
person to make any kind of assessment about them with regards to any concrete variable with even a simple Bayesian filter - I doubt there is a single
person playing who has played more than 50 games of online mafia. And as for your assertion that *not* having a single variable means that it's less of a problem... that is completely backwards. having two variables instead of one would *square* the required sample size for any given confidence interval.

Some players have over a thousand posts on the Syndicate alone playing mafia. Add in the other forums and you have thousands of posts from each player playing mafia. Once again, I don't intend for this to be set in stone, I just think that it's a better idea then randomizing, or some weak Day 1 suspicion.

And *that* all assumes there even *is* a concrete variable in there representing 'writing style while bad'. Which there of course is not.

Well, I think that all players subconsciously have tells while playing that differentiates their writing style based on their allegiance.

[insertnamehere]

Well, since you have decided only to respond to that part, and not say how it actually will not work in your mind, but only automatically condemn me, is a bit suspect.

What part would you like me to respond to? I can hardly dump three classes worth of information and 8 years of experience in defense of my opinion on the topic.
Of course, if you would like to release a list of the libraries you're using and at least some of your source code, I'd be happy to look for bugs for you and try it on some of my company's sample data sets to see how well it does classifying customer demographics or twitter spam. You might have some chance of success at that latter one, if your code is correct.

I actually did say how it will 'not work in my mind', though. It will not work because you will have insufficient data.
I have no idea why you think you will have enough. You'd need hundreds of games worth of info from a single
person to make any kind of assessment about them with regards to any concrete variable with even a simple Bayesian filter - I doubt there is a single
person playing who has played more than 50 games of online mafia. And as for your assertion that *not* having a single variable means that it's less of a problem... that is completely backwards. having two variables instead of one would *square* the required sample size for any given confidence interval.

And *that* all assumes there even *is* a concrete variable in there representing 'writing style while bad'. Which there of course is not.

As someone who has studied statistics a bit, I would also add that your model assumes no change in style over time unrelated to baddie or civvieness. Even if you had hundreds of games worth of data, they would have to have taken place over many years. The assumption that players will not have refined and updated their style over time is unrealistic, and I can think of no way to adequately control for time in this case.

You are right, but the things that I am looking for are subconscious tells. Think like you are in a poker game, and one guy adjusts his glasses when he has a bad hand. That is what I am looking for. You cannot really get rid of subconscious tells. It's ingrained into you.

[Nevinera]

I'm fairly confident that he doesn't even have such a tool and is just generating cover for future assertions and theories.
Even the task of scraping N different forums for data is a fairly complex one that one wouldn't just *do*.
That's why I asked for code and a list of libraries.

Challenge: if you have already scraped all that data into a db or files of some kind, it would be *trivial* for you to answer this question:
What are the top 20 words I've used in all threads on both boards I have played on under this name with length greater than 6?

[Lizzy]

As someone who has studied statistics a bit, I would also add that your model assumes no change in style over time unrelated to baddie or civvieness. Even if you had hundreds of games worth of data, they would have to have taken place over many years. The assumption that players will not have refined and updated their style over time is unrealistic, and I can think of no way to adequately control for time in this case.

I think this could prove to be accurate for a certain type of players. Sure, they have refined and updated their style as they gained experience, but the original patterns might still be there. Now with the looney and 'avant' type of players, I would not bet on it. Yes, this looks extremely flawed from whatever p.o.v you're looking at it, butt I'm soooooooo curious about it if it does exist.

[Bullzeye]

I'm fairly confident that he doesn't even have such a tool and is just generating cover for future assertions and theories.
Even the task of scraping N different forums for data is a fairly complex one that one wouldn't just *do*.
That's why I asked for code and a list of libraries.

Challenge: if you have already scraped all that data into a db or files of some kind, it would be *trivial* for you to answer this question:
What are the top 20 words I've used in all threads on both boards I have played on under this name with length greater than 6?

Wouldn't his libraries just be the sites that mafia is played on? I have no idea about this field so I'm guessing not, but it seems like the simple answer. I'd also like to know how he means to use The Piano as a source when it was shut down months ago and doesn't exist any more.

[insertnamehere]

I'm fairly confident that he doesn't even have such a tool and is just generating cover for future assertions and theories.
Even the task of scraping N different forums for data is a fairly complex one that one wouldn't just *do*.
That's why I asked for code and a list of libraries.

Seriously? You think that I'm a baddie who invented a fake program to what, persecute civvies? First, that's the dumbest fucking idea ever, and second, if everyone I chose was innocent, and they were lynched, and then came up good, wouldn't I look really bad?

Challenge: if you have already scraped all that data into a db or files of some kind, it would be *trivial* for you to answer this question:
What are the top 20 words I've used in all threads on both boards I have played on under this name with length greater than 6?

Once again, I'm new to this, this is my first project like this, so I don't know all of the lingo and the file types, but I think that it's not based on one of those specific file types that I can just search. The Program is specifically designed for word frequency in each game, and cross-references that list with other games. This simply is not something I know how to do, or probably can do.

[insertnamehere]

I'm fairly confident that he doesn't even have such a tool and is just generating cover for future assertions and theories.
Even the task of scraping N different forums for data is a fairly complex one that one wouldn't just *do*.
That's why I asked for code and a list of libraries.

Challenge: if you have already scraped all that data into a db or files of some kind, it would be *trivial* for you to answer this question:
What are the top 20 words I've used in all threads on both boards I have played on under this name with length greater than 6?

Wouldn't his libraries just be the sites that mafia is played on? I have no idea about this field so I'm guessing not, but it seems like the simple answer. I'd also like to know how he means to use The Piano as a source when it was shut down months ago and doesn't exist any more.

I scanned the website before it went down.

[Nevinera]

Wouldn't his libraries just be the sites that mafia is played on? I have no idea about this field so I'm guessing not, but it seems like the simple answer. I'd also like to know how he means to use The Piano as a source when it was shut down months ago and doesn't exist any more.

Software libraries. If he wrote his own machine learning implementation of any kind, I would *love* to see just that code of course,
but if he wrote a working document classifier as his 'first project', he's a genius and my company has a job waiting for him.

linki: No, I think you're a player that would like more control over the game. I do think baddie is somewhat more likely than civ for that behavior.

Once again, I'm new to this, this is my first project like this, so I don't know all of the lingo and the file types, but I think that it's not based on one of those specific file types that I can just search. The Program is specifically designed for word frequency in each game, and cross-references that list with other games. This simply is not something I know how to do, or probably can do.

And you claim to have written code that can parse content from forum sites and analyze it for common patterns? If you can produce your code, and it *remotely* works, I'll allow you to dictate my vote for the entire game.

[Nevinera]

I think I've figured out who to vote for on day 1.

Unless he shows us some evidence of course; then I'll upgrade him to 'delusional' and reconsider.

[insertnamehere]

Wouldn't his libraries just be the sites that mafia is played on? I have no idea about this field so I'm guessing not, but it seems like the simple answer. I'd also like to know how he means to use The Piano as a source when it was shut down months ago and doesn't exist any more.

Software libraries. If he wrote his own machine learning implementation of any kind, I would *love* to see just that code of course,
but if he wrote a working document classifier as his 'first project', he's a genius and my company has a job waiting for him.

linki: No, I think you're a player that would like more control over the game. I do think baddie is somewhat more likely than civ for that behavior.

Once again, I'm new to this, this is my first project like this, so I don't know all of the lingo and the file types, but I think that it's not based on one of those specific file types that I can just search. The Program is specifically designed for word frequency in each game, and cross-references that list with other games. This simply is not something I know how to do, or probably can do.

And you claim to have written code that can parse content from forum sites and analyze it for common patterns? If you can produce your code, and it *remotely* works, I'll allow you to dictate my vote for the entire game.

Once again, I'm not producing my code so someone can remake it themselves.

[Nevinera]

Of course not :-)

[A Person]

I don't see any reason to trust you if we can't see the code.

[Nevinera]

Don't you see? It's a *proprietary trade secret*. If he revealed his code, well then *anybody* would be able to tell who's bad.

That would be tragic for the civ team of course. Clearly he's being civic-minded.

[insertnamehere]

Don't you see? It's a *proprietary trade secret*. If he revealed his code, well then *anybody* would be able to tell who's bad.

That would be tragic for the civ team of course. Clearly he's being civic-minded.

No, then the baddies could remake it, find out what their tells are, and avoid those words or phrases, making the Program irrelevant.

[Lizzy]

I for one am willing to let him dictate my vote on this first day since it mostly ends up in a mess. If you can produce a name that is the result of your programme at work, I'm voting for that person. If not, I'll go with the usual...

[insertnamehere]

I for one am willing to let him dictate my vote on this first day since it mostly ends up in a mess. If you can produce a name that is the result of your programme at work, I'm voting for that person. If not, I'll go with the usual...

I'm waiting until tomorrow to come up with the first choice so I can get as large of a sample size as I can from this thread.

[A Person]

Don't you see? It's a *proprietary trade secret*. If he revealed his code, well then *anybody* would be able to tell who's bad.

That would be tragic for the civ team of course. Clearly he's being civic-minded.

No, then the baddies could remake it, find out what their tells are, and avoid those words or phrases, making the Program irrelevant.

If I were a baddie I'd start having my teammates write each others posts, thereby making the program inaccurate.

[thellama73]

I for one am willing to let him dictate my vote on this first day since it mostly ends up in a mess. If you can produce a name that is the result of your programme at work, I'm voting for that person. If not, I'll go with the usual...

Why? What reason do you have to trust him over your own instincts? I intend to vote for anyone who lets others lead them around by the nose.

[birdwithteeth11]

Well, since you have decided only to respond to that part, and not say how it actually will not work in your mind, but only automatically condemn me, is a bit suspect.

What part would you like me to respond to? I can hardly dump three classes worth of information and 8 years of experience in defense of my opinion on the topic.
Of course, if you would like to release a list of the libraries you're using and at least some of your source code, I'd be happy to look for bugs for you and try it on some of my company's sample data sets to see how well it does classifying customer demographics or twitter spam. You might have some chance of success at that latter one, if your code is correct.

I actually did say how it will 'not work in my mind', though. It will not work because you will have insufficient data.
I have no idea why you think you will have enough. You'd need hundreds of games worth of info from a single
person to make any kind of assessment about them with regards to any concrete variable with even a simple Bayesian filter - I doubt there is a single
person playing who has played more than 50 games of online mafia. And as for your assertion that *not* having a single variable means that it's less of a problem... that is completely backwards. having two variables instead of one would *square* the required sample size for any given confidence interval.

And *that* all assumes there even *is* a concrete variable in there representing 'writing style while bad'. Which there of course is not.

As someone who has studied statistics a bit, I would also add that your model assumes no change in style over time unrelated to baddie or civvieness. Even if you had hundreds of games worth of data, they would have to have taken place over many years. The assumption that players will not have refined and updated their style over time is unrealistic, and I can think of no way to adequately control for time in this case.

Yeah, I have to agree with llama and Nev here. Statistically, I don't see any way that you're going to be able to come up with a large enough sample size for your data that will give you any kind of accuracy. And given that probably everyone has changed up their style of play multiple times if they've played long enough, I think that alone is going to be enough to foil your program.

Plus if it actually does work, deciding not to share it with anyone else seems a little too "convenient". Like you're going to use this program as a smokescreen to justify your suspicions.

Unless you're willing to give us a demonstration of your program actually working, I will be voting for you today.

Linki X3

[birdwithteeth11]

I for one am willing to let him dictate my vote on this first day since it mostly ends up in a mess. If you can produce a name that is the result of your programme at work, I'm voting for that person. If not, I'll go with the usual...

Or maybe you're trying to buddy up to him?

[Nevinera]

I've decided that there are a few civ roles that might try something like Inh is trying (henderson, percy, penny at least), and so I'm not going to commit to voting for him until I see the shape of his play tomorrow.

[Lizzy]

I for one am willing to let him dictate my vote on this first day since it mostly ends up in a mess. If you can produce a name that is the result of your programme at work, I'm voting for that person. If not, I'll go with the usual...

Why? What reason do you have to trust him over your own instincts? I intend to vote for anyone who lets others lead them around by the nose.

1. because I rarely have instincts on day 1, unless someone accidentally outs themselves, but even then I'm having a hard time believing someone can make silly mistakes like that;
2. apparently my instincts are shit in general;
3. it's day 1 and I usually vote for myself.

[insertnamehere]

Don't you see? It's a *proprietary trade secret*. If he revealed his code, well then *anybody* would be able to tell who's bad.

That would be tragic for the civ team of course. Clearly he's being civic-minded.

No, then the baddies could remake it, find out what their tells are, and avoid those words or phrases, making the Program irrelevant.

If I were a baddie I'd start having my teammates write each others posts, thereby making the program inaccurate.

That would require a lot of planning and time for each and every post. I don't really see this happening.

[Lizzy]

I for one am willing to let him dictate my vote on this first day since it mostly ends up in a mess. If you can produce a name that is the result of your programme at work, I'm voting for that person. If not, I'll go with the usual...

Or maybe you're trying to buddy up to him?

Would you rather I buddy you up *nudge nudge*?

[Bullzeye]

Don't you see? It's a *proprietary trade secret*. If he revealed his code, well then *anybody* would be able to tell who's bad.

That would be tragic for the civ team of course. Clearly he's being civic-minded.

No, then the baddies could remake it, find out what their tells are, and avoid those words or phrases, making the Program irrelevant.

Or the baddies can use the info you yourself put into the thread. If I were a baddie knowing you're using this program to find who's good and who's not, anyone you claimed to trust would shoot right up my 'people to kill with extreme prejudice' list. Anyone you called bad, I'd jump on the bandwagon and blame you if it was wrong. There are a lot of flaws with the whole thing. Not only the ones Nev has pointed out as an expert in the area, but ones that anyone can pick up on. The fact you won't share your knowledge is kinda strange. Don't you know about peer review? You can't claim something is a huge breakthrough without getting others to look over your data and agree.

Don't you see? It's a *proprietary trade secret*. If he revealed his code, well then *anybody* would be able to tell who's bad.

That would be tragic for the civ team of course. Clearly he's being civic-minded.

No, then the baddies could remake it, find out what their tells are, and avoid those words or phrases, making the Program irrelevant.

If I were a baddie I'd start having my teammates write each others posts, thereby making the program inaccurate.

Genius idea there. Any baddies reading this please convince your team to do that just for comic effect. You'll probably lose when it becomes obvious, but we'll all have fun.

[Elohcin]

Don't you see? It's a *proprietary trade secret*. If he revealed his code, well then *anybody* would be able to tell who's bad.

That would be tragic for the civ team of course. Clearly he's being civic-minded.

No, then the baddies could remake it, find out what their tells are, and avoid those words or phrases, making the Program irrelevant.

If I were a baddie I'd start having my teammates write each others posts, thereby making the program inaccurate.

haha

I think INH is a bit crazy and should be disregarded in this matter.

[thellama73]

Genius idea there. Any baddies reading this please convince your team to do that just for comic effect. You'll probably lose when it becomes obvious, but we'll all have fun.

[reywaS]

Talk about entertaining. I thought the other game was funny, but this one is down right fucknutty. What is this, Person of Interest mafia? lol

My only ping so far was Nev's post giving advice to the baddies. That seemed weird, but Nev has posted many times and that's the only thing that struck me as weird.

[Dom]

I'm fairly confident that he doesn't even have such a tool and is just generating cover for future assertions and theories.
Even the task of scraping N different forums for data is a fairly complex one that one wouldn't just *do*.
That's why I asked for code and a list of libraries.

Challenge: if you have already scraped all that data into a db or files of some kind, it would be *trivial* for you to answer this question:
What are the top 20 words I've used in all threads on both boards I have played on under this name with length greater than 6?

Wouldn't his libraries just be the sites that mafia is played on? I have no idea about this field so I'm guessing not, but it seems like the simple answer. I'd also like to know how he means to use The Piano as a source when it was shut down months ago and doesn't exist any more.

I scanned the website before it went down.

You "scanned" it?
What exactly does that mean?
You mean you downloaded the entirety of the ThePiano Board? If so, please tell LC. He was very sad to see TP go. He would probably like to have that data.
Too bad you're lying
You're also talking about games that some of us played 4-6 years ago. My first game was 4 years ago. I was 15 years old. Do you really think that I am the same person as I was 4 years ago?
I see many flaws, and I see many inaccuracies. As a math major, I don't see how this could be considered reliable. I also don't really believe you on it because I doubt you have the entirety of the piano saved to your hard drive, plus RM, plus Prog, plus LP (that would be a doozy), plus TS, etc.
INH, what is your motivator here?

Don't you see? It's a *proprietary trade secret*. If he revealed his code, well then *anybody* would be able to tell who's bad.

That would be tragic for the civ team of course. Clearly he's being civic-minded.

No, then the baddies could remake it, find out what their tells are, and avoid those words or phrases, making the Program irrelevant.

Isn't the program already irrelevant if you told us about it at all? What if some people get nervous and screw up their civvie posting style? What if some people get nervous on the baddies, and they don't post normally either?
If this program really exists, have fun with it.


Hedge, do you think spreading the votes is a long term strategy for the civvies to win the game?

[Bullzeye]

Don't you see? It's a *proprietary trade secret*. If he revealed his code, well then *anybody* would be able to tell who's bad.

That would be tragic for the civ team of course. Clearly he's being civic-minded.

No, then the baddies could remake it, find out what their tells are, and avoid those words or phrases, making the Program irrelevant.

Isn't the program already irrelevant if you told us about it at all? What if some people get nervous and screw up their civvie posting style? What if some people get nervous on the baddies, and they don't post normally either?
If this program really exists, have fun with it.

If this program really exists and actually works, why wouldn't the baddies just kill him tonight? I think really if he'd wanted to make a program like the one he claims he's got, the better thing to do would've been to open up a discussion thread to get the opinions of others because if he's telling the truth then he clearly hasn't thought it through very well.

[thellama73]

Hedge, do you think spreading the votes is a long term strategy for the civvies to win the game?

Good question. Will it would admittedly help foil Bob's minions, I have never been a fan of splitting the vote. It makes manipulation too easy for baddies. Of course, complete unanimity is not desirable iether, since you don't get much information from those votes, but I like to see a four or five vote margin for the lynchee when possible.

[Nevinera]

Talk about entertaining. I thought the other game was funny, but this one is down right fucknutty. What is this, Person of Interest mafia? lol

My only ping so far was Nev's post giving advice to the baddies. That seemed weird, but Nev has posted many times and that's the only thing that struck me as weird.

My advice to the baddies was both good advice *and* good for the civs if the baddies follow it.

The thing is, Bob and the baddies are going to be at odds very quickly, and I'd much prefer that they realize that
each other are their first threats and leave off picking on civs for a while. Otherwise, the baddies will work against the civs
for the first 5-6 days and then Bob will have critical mass and beat them all using the inside information he will by then have acquired against them,
much like I used my knowledge via Epig against his team in bioshock.

This game, unless we are very lucky, will be about Bob.

[Dom]

Hedge, do you think spreading the votes is a long term strategy for the civvies to win the game?

Good question. Will it would admittedly help foil Bob's minions, I have never been a fan of splitting the vote. It makes manipulation too easy for baddies. Of course, complete unanimity is not desirable iether, since you don't get much information from those votes, but I like to see a four or five vote margin for the lynchee when possible.

Exactly. I don't think just giving people votes willy-nilly is a winning strategy. I didn't play a lot of these games and haven't looked at the roles very closely yet, but there could be lynch switches, vote plus/minus, etc. Lots of votes everywhere only makes it easy for baddies to hide behind someone else's vote.

[DharmaHelper]

So, let me preface this by saying that I am by no means, an expert at coding. This was the first really big program that I've decided to make. It could work, it could not, I'm going to try and see.

I've created a program that goes into every poster's game history, specifically games where they were bad, and sees what their top phrases or words are. It then contrasts those with the top words or phrases from a persons post history when they were good. It then eliminates the words that were on both lists, leaving us with that person's tells. After that, it goes into this thread, and sees how many times someone uses words or phrases identified as tells. The higher that number is, the more likely chance you are to be bad. This was a bitch to make, and it's something I've worked on for a long time, a bit of a pet project if you will.

Now, of course, because of the limited sample size, the program is more likely to be incorrect these first few days, but, as more and more people post, I know more and more about their role.

To summarize, I'm the NSA now, bitches.

Illuminati.

[reywaS]

Talk about entertaining. I thought the other game was funny, but this one is down right fucknutty. What is this, Person of Interest mafia? lol

My only ping so far was Nev's post giving advice to the baddies. That seemed weird, but Nev has posted many times and that's the only thing that struck me as weird.

My advice to the baddies was both good advice *and* good for the civs if the baddies follow it.

The thing is, Bob and the baddies are going to be at odds very quickly, and I'd much prefer that they realize that
each other are their first threats and leave off picking on civs for a while. Otherwise, the baddies will work against the civs
for the first 5-6 days and then Bob will have critical mass and beat them all using the inside information he will by then have acquired against them,
much like I used my knowledge via Epig against his team in bioshock.

This game, unless we are very lucky, will be about Bob.

I see where you're going with that now.

Also, I agree with you that INH is likely doing all this because of his role. It makes no sense otherwise.

[DharmaHelper]

If I was a role that gained power as I gained popularity, how would I go about gaining popularity? Well, I'd start by posting something to force attention onto me, but something that also keeps me off the lynch radar. Something intriguing, yet useful. Something like "I have a program that I can and will use to determine statistically who the baddies are."

[Mongoose]

Don't you see? It's a *proprietary trade secret*. If he revealed his code, well then *anybody* would be able to tell who's bad.

That would be tragic for the civ team of course. Clearly he's being civic-minded.

No, then the baddies could remake it, find out what their tells are, and avoid those words or phrases, making the Program irrelevant.

Isn't the program already irrelevant if you told us about it at all? What if some people get nervous and screw up their civvie posting style? What if some people get nervous on the baddies, and they don't post normally either?
If this program really exists, have fun with it.

If this program really exists and actually works, why wouldn't the baddies just kill him tonight? I think really if he'd wanted to make a program like the one he claims he's got, the better thing to do would've been to open up a discussion thread to get the opinions of others because if he's telling the truth then he clearly hasn't thought it through very well.

I like where Bullz and Dom are going with this. Why would you want us to know?

A subject that knows it is being observed changes its behavior, so I wonder about his motivations. INH is a smart hoss and is going to know all of that.

[Mongoose]

If I was a role that gained power as I gained popularity, how would I go about gaining popularity? Well, I'd start by posting something to force attention onto me, but something that also keeps me off the lynch radar. Something intriguing, yet useful. Something like "I have a program that I can and will use to determine statistically who the baddies are."

That is a really freakin good point. As someone who had that role in that game, I can vouch that saying something attention-grabbing would be a good way to level up your power. In this game, that particular role is listed as an indie, so we can take that on accordingly.

[Dom]

Mongoose, do you think that role can be trusted?

[Flyin' High]

Not sure if this counts as an analysis, but it's something.

The following is a breakdown of each role in the game without the role description:

Role	Original Game	Faction
Damo Suzuki	Avant-Garde 2	Civvie
Man-E-Faces	Masters of the Universe	Civvie
Trusty John	Grimm's Fairy Tales	Civvie
Homestar Runner	Homestar Runner	Civvie
King of Town	Homestar Runner	Civvie
Mr. Ibis	American Gods	Civvie
Lucy	Sgt. Pepper's	Civvie
Mr. Henderson	Sgt. Pepper's	Civvie
MacGuyver	MacGuyver	Civvie
Penny	MacGuyver	Civvie
Villager	Minecraft	Civvie
Thomas	Thomas the Tank Engine	Civvie
Percy	Thomas the Tank Engine	Civvie
Jack Torrance	The Shining	Civvie
Mycroft Holmes	Sherlock	Civvie
Beggar's Banquet	Rolling Stones	Civvie
Meat Boy	Super Meat Boy	Civvie
The Sinister Exaggerator	Avant-Garde 2	The Manipulators
Rumpelstiltskin	Grimm's Fairy Tales	The Manipulators
Catherine Martell	Twin Peaks	The Manipulators
Jim Moriarty	Sherlock	The Manipulators
Big Daddy (Bouncer)	Bioshock	The Video Game Villains
Creeper	Minecraft	The Video Game Villains
Pirahna Plant	Classic Super Mario Bros.	The Video Game Villains
Dr. Fetus	Super Meat Boy	The Video Game Villains
Zodac	Masters of the Universe	Independents and Neutrals
Sander Cohen	Bioshock	Independents and Neutrals
Media	American Gods	Independents and Neutrals
Bob	Twin Peaks	Independents and Neutrals
Delbert Grady	The Shining	Independents and Neutrals

The second graph shows how many roles are from each game (16 games represented) and if the roles are civvie, mafia (team 1 or 2), or indy/netural. All of the games have two roles taken from them with the exception of Classic Super Mario Bros. and Rolling Stones which have 1 each.

Game	Civvie	Mafia 1	Mafia 2	Indy/Neutral
American Gods	1	--	--	1
Avant-Garde 2	1	1	--	--
Bioshock	--	--	1	1
Classic Super Mario Bros.	--	--	1	--
Grimm's Fairy Tales	1	1	--	--
Homestar Runner	2	--	--	--
MacGuyver	2	--	--	--
Masters of the Universe	--	1	--	--
Minecraft	1	--	1	--
Rolling Stones	1	--	--	--
Sgt. Pepper's	2	--	--	--
Sherlock	1	1	--	--
Super Meat Boy	1	--	1	--
The Shining	1	--	--	1
Thomas the Tank Engine	2	--	--	--
Twin Peaks	--	1	--	1

As you can see, some of the games are only represented by civvie roles while others only have a mafia or indy/neutral role taken from the original game.

Now we know what the result of the poll did (Bioshock won so we are having a Bioshock themed day with plasmids) but for interests sake, this is the breakdown of votes in the Day 0 Poll by game:
Avant-Garde 2 - 3 votes (Epi, Dom, DP)
Masters of the Universe - 4 votes (Elohcin, BF, rey, FH)
Grimm's Fairy Tales - 1 vote (Spacedaisy)
Bioshock - 5 votes (Bullzeye, Nevinera, Aces, bea, Devin)
Homestar Runner - 2 votes (BDH, agleamin)
American Gods - 2 votes (thellama, DF)
Sgt. Pepper's - 0 votes
MacGuyver - 3 votes (Kate, juliets, BWT)
Minecraft - 0 votes
Twin Peaks - 1 vote (S~V~S)
Thomas the Tank Engine - 0 votes
Classic Super Mario Bros. - 3 votes (Mongoose, Hedge, Vomps)
The Shining - 0 votes
Sherlock - 3 votes (DH, Lizzy, A Person)
Rolling Stones - 0 votes
Super Meat Boy - 3 votes (INH, Boomslang, Russ)

*Standard Disclaimer* As with any data I post, if you see any errors, please feel free to let me know.

[DharmaHelper]

Other thoughts:

LOL@Nev opening up a clinic on information gathering. Sick burn SICK BURN.

Lol@Lizzy giving up her vote like, at the drop of a hat. Not susp. at all. Sarcastic orange is a thing here, right?

I do not agree about spreading the vote, particularly this early. I think spreading the vote to flush out minions (I think that was the purpose, can't remember off the top of my head) is flawed in a couple ways. First, if we spread the vote out it's easy for mafia to hide or manipulate the lynch. Second, there is no way to differentiate if we successfully spread the vote out to a minion or if there are just no minions or if a minion didn't get a kill PM in or if a minion was blocked. Too many variables for me to want to fuck with it.

Lemme see lemme see, anything else?

I will be watching the nubs that are all "prolly gonna randomize/vote for myself/vote for someone for a generic boring reason" because come on son, this is the game of champions, vote like a champion and do some sleuthin'.

[Mongoose]

Mongoose, do you think that role can be trusted?

While I don't think it automatically qualifies that role as "bad", I think I would be leery of trusting him/her, yes.

[Dom]

Other thoughts:

LOL@Nev opening up a clinic on information gathering. Sick burn SICK BURN.

Lol@Lizzy giving up her vote like, at the drop of a hat. Not susp. at all. Sarcastic orange is a thing here, right?

I do not agree about spreading the vote, particularly this early. I think spreading the vote to flush out minions (I think that was the purpose, can't remember off the top of my head) is flawed in a couple ways. First, if we spread the vote out it's easy for mafia to hide or manipulate the lynch. Second, there is no way to differentiate if we successfully spread the vote out to a minion or if there are just no minions or if a minion didn't get a kill PM in or if a minion was blocked. Too many variables for me to want to fuck with it.

Lemme see lemme see, anything else?

I will be watching the nubs that are all "prolly gonna randomize/vote for myself/vote for someone for a generic boring reason" because come on son, this is the game of champions, vote like a champion and do some sleuthin'.

I think the purpose was to just stop the minion's kill... but I see this being a liability, as you seem to as well.

Mongoose, do you think that role can be trusted?

While I don't think it automatically qualifies that role as "bad", I think I would be leery of trusting him/her, yes.

Just making sure.

[Flyin' High]

I just did a reread of the roles to see if there was a "Mr. Popular" type role and the only one that stuck out to me was Rumpelstiltskin--except his power is the whole magic word thing and we haven't had a night yet for him to pick a magic word.

So I'm not sure that INH has posted his data-crunch thing in order to gain power by us all now talking about him so much as maybe trying to simply put the fear of data-god into the mafia's hearts. Though I will admit to some skepticism about the whole data mining thing. Especially because as some have already pointed out, many of us have been playing for years and have changed a lot during that time. FH of 4 years ago looks nothing like FH today. But maybe it's something I have to see in action to truly believe.

As for who I suspect on Day 1 in a game of champions...I don't know yet. Maybe I'll reread all of the posts since I have some time.

[Dom]

FH, I don't know what to make of your data, but I noticed that you forgot to include Zodac as an independent/neutral in the MOTU row.

LINKI: FH, I believe people are referring to the role "Media".

[DharmaHelper]

Yeah FH, I was looking at Media.

[Mongoose]

FH, I don't know what to make of your data, but I noticed that you forgot to include Zodac as an independent/neutral in the MOTU row.

LINKI: FH, I believe people are referring to the role "Media".

Indeed. Perhaps I can shed some light on how that power worked when I was Media in American Gods. I'm sure it won't be the same in this game, but you'll get an idea.

1-5 mentions: role block
6-11 mentions: can't be NK'd
12-18 mentions: role scan
19-24 mentions: Night Kill
25+ mentions: Nuclear Power: Kills Everyone that Voted for Media

These are just for representation only, they are not direct recreations. Just to give you an idea of how that role's mechanic worked. They were graduated like that - where just a handful of mentions wasn't a very awesome power, but if you got name-checked two dozen times, you could cause some serious havoc and destruction.

[Flyin' High]

I stand corrected on my last post. I somehow totally read over the Media role which says "gains power via popularity." Soooooo yeah. Interesting.