The Syndicate

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:46 pm**

LOL dp!!

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:49 pm**

AceofSpaces wrote:Boo, if it makes you feel better you have my word I wont make a vote to lynch someone without giving a good reason of my own. I understand your fear of blendy lynch votes, but don't assume that just because I didn't feel like summarizing the last five pages of debate that I wont make a concerted effort for actual lynch votes. I think my above effort to explain my reasoning on this day 0 poll is good evidence of that.

Yes, I just don't like that the reasoning has to be forced out of you, I don't like the fact (and I do think it's a fact) that there are people who are willing (and probably will in this game) cast lynch votes in the same style you initially cast your vote, and I don't think if such a person has the L role that anything good can possibly come from the L/Light option.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:50 pm**

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:

For example.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:09 pm**

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:

Yay! So happy to be playing with you again!!

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:27 pm**

What is this "non-Light Mafia"/ "Mafia 2" I keep seeing?

Detectives win when all killers (Kiras) have been stopped and justice has prevailed.

I note that there are four Kiras: Kyosuke Higuchi (Third Kira), Light Yagami (Kira), Misa Amane (Second Kira), Teru Mikami (X Kira). Unless I am reading something incorrectly or the secret win conditions contradict this, these are the only people a detective needs dead to win. I am operating under the belief that the other Lighters play a supporting role, and that lynching them would be helpful for taking down three of the Kiras, but non-essential for victory. The host explicitly identified the killers as Kiras.

And with the exception of Kyosuke Higuchi, none of the Yotsuba are Kiras, and therefore do not need to be dead for a detective to win. I hated looking this up because I am only on episode 6, but according to http://deathnote.wikia.com/wiki/Kyosuke_Higuchi *SPOILERS* The Yotsuba betray Kyosuke Higuchi when they discover he is Kira. The premise sounds just like a Mafia game- eight people who meet, and they all know one of them is the killer but not who. Sounds like an ingenuous opportunity to put a mafia game IN a mafia game. *END SPOILERS*

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:29 pm**

Thanks for the framing the spoilers Epi. I'm only on 9, so don't know what happens yet.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:06 pm**

Epi now I know you're taking the piss.

Kira and His Sympathizers win when Kira has eliminated the Detectives and subsequently starts his utopian New World.

So everyone on Light's team has a win condition that contradicts the Detectives. And the Yotsuba group (which is a mafia, buddy.) Have a secret win condition, the possibility to NK, and at least one opportunity for BTSC

Viewing (and trying to frame) these groups as any form of civ-friendly is really quite absurd.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:14 pm**

This is my head after reading boo, DH and Epi's posts (which I do appreciate the point/counterpoint discussion - I know very little about this subject)

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:16 pm**

Alright, folks, I'm making a decision and hope you're OK with it, since I had no immediate feedback from anyone saying "give us more time!!".

This time of day works really well for me; considering I currently have the free time and BR is the only one who hasn't checked in, I am going to end Day 0 and start Day 1 momentarily.

If this will be an issue, speak or forever hold your peace.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:16 pm**

MovingPictures07 wrote:Alright, folks, I'm making a decision and hope you're OK with it, since I had no immediate feedback from anyone saying "give us more time!!".

This time of day works really well for me; considering I currently have the free time and BR is the only one who hasn't checked in, I am going to end Day 0 and start Day 1 momentarily.

If this will be an issue, speak or forever hold your peace.

Do it.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:17 pm**

View the polls for Death Note Mafia here!

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:17 pm**

DAY 0

How will we use the Lynch Note in order to best catch Kira?

1) Normal Lynch
13
boo (6), Epignosis (7), S~V~S (8), Zomberella12 (12), triceratopzeuhl (17), Roxy (18), bea (19), Matahari (20), Elohcin (23), Ricochet (24), Bass_the_Clever (26), juliets (27), FZ. (28) 45%
2) Secret Ballot Lynch
0
No votes
3) High Poster Influenced Lynch
1
Metalmarsh89 (2) 3%
4) Low Poster Influenced Lynch
1
DisgruntledPorcupine (29) 3%
5) Early Voter Influenced Lynch
1
Snowman (11) 3%
6) Late Voter Influenced Lynch
1
Russtifinko (16) 3%
7) L and Light Influenced Lynch
9
DharmaHelper (4), thellama73 (5), Made (9), Turnip Head (13), birdwithteeth11 (14), Long Con (15), AceofSpaces (21), Boomslang (22), Spacedaisy (25) 31%
8) Nihilistic Random Lynch
0
No votes
9001) LYNCH EVERYONE! (host, non-players only)
3
MovingPictures07 (1), zeek (3), nijuukyugou (10) 10%
Total votes : 29

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:18 pm**

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:19 pm**

Only Black Rock missed the vote.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:19 pm**

thellama73 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Alright, folks, I'm making a decision and hope you're OK with it, since I had no immediate feedback from anyone saying "give us more time!!".

This time of day works really well for me; considering I currently have the free time and BR is the only one who hasn't checked in, I am going to end Day 0 and start Day 1 momentarily.

If this will be an issue, speak or forever hold your peace.
Do it.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:21 pm**

Day 0: The Return of Sockface

BOO: Nice job, we have selected the most civilian-friendly Lynch Note mechanism.
S~V~S: I agree~
DHARMAHELPER: You guys can't say I didn't warn you.
???????: Alright, let's do this!
EPIGNOSIS: Shouldn't you be sporting your new alias?

TURNIP HEAD: Yes, everyone, let's make sure we use our aliases at all times. Kira could be anyone.
METALMARSH89: Why don't we just talk and catch the killer in a lie?
THELLAMA73: Yes. Let's. I say let's go after those who talk the least!

Suddenly, Sockface reappeared! And looked good as new.

BOOMSLANG: What the...?
BLACK ROCK: Huh?
LONG CON: Would you look at that! Sockface is among us yet again!

SOCKFACE: Hello, everyone! So I see you have selected Normal Lynch. If you don't mind, I will be your impartial third party.

Sockface snatched the Lynch Note from the player currently holding it.

SOCKFACE: Now get to finding Kira! Good luck.

It is now Day 1.

You have 48 hours to find and lynch Kira.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:23 pm**

Voting Llama.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:26 pm**

I know who I want to lynch already, and it's not Made.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:27 pm**

I have several suspects in mind, which I will no doubt expound on shortly.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:33 pm**

Two arguments with DharmaHelper in one day? Let me see if I can summon the strength...

DharmaHelper wrote:Epi now I know you're taking the piss.

You shouldn't tell people what you "know." That's info-dumping.

DharmaHelper wrote:
Kira and His Sympathizers win when Kira has eliminated the Detectives and subsequently starts his utopian New World.
So everyone on Light's team has a win condition that contradicts the Detectives.

Correct. But detectives do not need all of that team dead to win.

DharmaHelper wrote:And the Yotsuba group (which is a mafia, buddy.)

I disagree. The detectives do not need them dead to win (except one of their number). I do not think that they need the detectives dead to win. If you agree with me on that second premise, then the conclusion is that the Yotsuba group are not Mafia- only one of them is.

DharmaHelper wrote:Have a secret win condition,

Right, one that is probably not "kill all the detectives" or "eliminate all the Kira." Do you think they share the same win condition? I don't.

DharmaHelper wrote:the possibility to NK,

A democratic Night kill, which means the Kira himself does not have direct control over this.

DharmaHelper wrote:and at least one opportunity for BTSC

Correct. But not all of them, and not with the Kira, if my interpretation of Shingo Mido is correct.

DharmaHelper wrote:Viewing (and trying to frame) these groups as any form of civ-friendly is really quite absurd.

What "groups?" I did not argue that any "groups" are "civ-friendly." You are loading what I said with meaning that isn't there, Tomodachi.

Addendum: Now I see why I had the strength to go a second bout. It is a new Day.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:33 pm**

These are in order of posting.
L/Light is good:

Turnip Head wrote:Rest in peace Sockface! Yay game!

I'm torn between High Poster ( ) and L/Light options. The high poster one would force the baddies (and civvies too!) to be active if they want their votes to count, which should make for a livelier game thread. But the L/Light option seems to indicate it could have some strategic merit as well.

L/Light is bad:

Turnip Head wrote:Good points Epi and Daisy. Y'all have got me leaning for a normie lynch now.

L/Light is good:

Turnip Head wrote:I voted for L/Light influence. The more I think about it, the more I think it's the best way to catch Kira/Light. And it would be fun to do something different

L/Light is bad:

Turnip Head wrote:Epi makes some really good points. What if the wrong person got lynched every day, and each time flips civ? We wouldn't know whether L or Light was responsible. We'd actually have less information than we started with.

I *symbolically change my vote to Normal*

L/Light is good:

Turnip Head wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:Rico, where have you landed on this L/Light vs Normal debate?
Hardly keeping my brain cells from not popping, in terms of following said debate. Undecided, otherwise. I haven't heard from others if L's checking wouldn't put him in an advantage or at least create a balance of somd sort.
I'd say we don't know enough about how L's percentages are determined to know if this is true or not. Although I do like to think L must have some way to use this option to his advantage, even if he himself is not at the top of his baddie detecting game.

L/Light is bad:

Turnip Head wrote:In any case , the L/Light option will NOT give the thread more information. It centralizes the information and puts it into the hands of the leaders of two teams. It is balanced, probably, and would definitely be fun, but a normal lynch is the safest and most reliable option, no question.

No question? Please. You've got more waffle than a breakfast buffet.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:37 pm**

I made a list of four people that I would vote for on Day 1. Turnip Head is one of those, although not for the same reasoning you raised, llama.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:38 pm**

Epignosis wrote:I made a list of four people that I would vote for on Day 1. Turnip Head is one of those, although not for the same reasoning you raised, llama.

Am I on your list?

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:39 pm**

Ok, I'm going to be suicidal, but as a jumping off point, isn't reasonable to assume that L, Light, and Ryuk voted the Light/L option on the day 0 poll?

As cued from the fact that DH is currently(or previously depending on when i post this..) cooking something, I'm going to flesh out this idea abit....

DharmaHelper (4), thellama73 (5), Made (9), Turnip Head (13), birdwithteeth11 (14), Long Con (15), AceofSpaces (21), Boomslang (22), Spacedaisy (25) 31%

OK so that's 9 people. It should be noted that the tide did in fact turn quite hard After SVS and Epi placed their votes, so let's put all the above in context

DH- I'm not even going to quote anything for him, He put together a very strong argument for L/Light which he fleshed out completely with Boo. While DH is one of the better players Ik, i could see it being very difficult to create a solid case while knowing the ins and outs of the system and know he has an advantange. He would be forced to carefully ignore all damning elements of the system for civvie, which i'd assuming would cloud his ability to make a sound post. If any player could pull this off, it would be DH, but I doubt it

thellama- the post that sticks out to me in my head for him in particul-- Oh. ok so i went back to look for the post where Llama flip flopped

thellama73 wrote:I can see both sides of it. I'm happy with my vote, but won't be disappointed if normal lynch wins either.

but holy crap did Th flip flop....... not sure if i even want to continue this post...... I'll look at the rest, but damn...

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:40 pm**

thellama73 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I made a list of four people that I would vote for on Day 1. Turnip Head is one of those, although not for the same reasoning you raised, llama.
Am I on your list?

No. I like you.

In fact, so that no one accuses me of being opportunistic or jumping onto other people's cases, I'll name the quartet now:

Ricochet, Turnip Head, spacedaisy, and FZ.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:42 pm**

Yeah, I did flip flop, because I was convinced (mainly by Epi) that a normal lynch was better. But I didn't keep flipping back and forth after I changed my mind.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:43 pm**

Epignosis wrote:Two arguments with DharmaHelper in one day? Let me see if I can summon the strength...

DharmaHelper wrote:Epi now I know you're taking the piss.
You shouldn't tell people what you "know." That's info-dumping.

DharmaHelper wrote:
Kira and His Sympathizers win when Kira has eliminated the Detectives and subsequently starts his utopian New World.
So everyone on Light's team has a win condition that contradicts the Detectives.
Correct. But detectives do not need all of that team dead to win.
But as long as at least one Kira (And that team has several Kiras) is alive, that teams win condition is literally "Kill all Detectives." That is not civ-friendly. Are you suggesting we let them be? If a connection/case can be made down the line that someone is on that team but not one of the Kiras you would advocate NOT lynching that person?
DharmaHelper wrote:And the Yotsuba group (which is a mafia, buddy.)
I disagree. The detectives do not need them dead to win (except one of their number). I do not think that they need the detectives dead to win. If you agree with me on that second premise, then the conclusion is that the Yotsuba group are not Mafia- only one of them is.

You don't "think" they need the detectives dead to win? Come on dude. They have a secret win condition which to me means that to err on the side of caution and lynch them would be best.

DharmaHelper wrote:Have a secret win condition,
Right, one that is probably not "kill all the detectives" or "eliminate all the Kira." Do you think they share the same win condition? I don't.
Somehow I doubt their win condition is "Help the civs pretty please."
DharmaHelper wrote:the possibility to NK,
A democratic Night kill, which means the Kira himself does not have direct control over this.

Ok great. But aren't all mafias technically democratic night kills? I don't understand how "Don't worry guys, they're DEMOCRATICALLY killing civs at night." makes your point any better.
DharmaHelper wrote:and at least one opportunity for BTSC
Correct. But not all of them, and not with the Kira, if my interpretation of Shingo Mido is correct.

DharmaHelper wrote:Viewing (and trying to frame) these groups as any form of civ-friendly is really quite absurd.
What "groups?" I did not argue that any "groups" are "civ-friendly." You are loading what I said with meaning that isn't there, Tomodachi.

You are advocating that the civs (Detectives) do not need certain parts of the mafias (Yotsuba and Light) dead to win the game and visa versa, which translates to me to "civ-friendly." since they can, in your view, win together.

Addendum: Now I see why I had the strength to go a second bout. It is a new Day.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:45 pm**

I know I always think Rico is bad, but he is on my list too, Epi. The way he hovered around to wait and see which way the winds were blowing before placing his vote stood out to me.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:48 pm**

thellama73 wrote:
No question? Please. You've got more waffle than a breakfast buffet.

OK, that got a real LOL out of me.

OK, I need to reread all of that before all you guys start Wall O'Textin again. Plus get my own feel for my own feels before I taint my feels with other peoples feels. Can you feel it?

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:49 pm**

Made wrote:Ok, I'm going to be suicidal, but as a jumping off point, isn't reasonable to assume that L, Light, and Ryuk voted the Light/L option on the day 0 poll?

If I were Light or Ryuk, I would want the L/Light option to win.

If I were L, I would NOT want the L/Light option to win.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:51 pm**

Epignosis wrote:
Made wrote:Ok, I'm going to be suicidal, but as a jumping off point, isn't reasonable to assume that L, Light, and Ryuk voted the Light/L option on the day 0 poll?
If I were Light or Ryuk, I would want the L/Light option to win.

If I were L, I would NOT want the L/Light option to win.

Good point. Something I want to hit on, especially after Llama looking into exact what I wanted to look into. Is Light and Ryuk voting for their own option too on the nose?

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:59 pm**

DharmaHelper wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Two arguments with DharmaHelper in one day? Let me see if I can summon the strength...

DharmaHelper wrote:Epi now I know you're taking the piss.
You shouldn't tell people what you "know." That's info-dumping.

DharmaHelper wrote:
Kira and His Sympathizers win when Kira has eliminated the Detectives and subsequently starts his utopian New World.
So everyone on Light's team has a win condition that contradicts the Detectives.
Correct. But detectives do not need all of that team dead to win.
1 But as long as at least one Kira (And that team has several Kiras) is alive, that teams win condition is literally "Kill all Detectives." That is not civ-friendly. Are you suggesting we let them be? If a connection/case can be made down the line that someone is on that team but not one of the Kiras you would advocate NOT lynching that person?
DharmaHelper wrote:And the Yotsuba group (which is a mafia, buddy.)
I disagree. The detectives do not need them dead to win (except one of their number). I do not think that they need the detectives dead to win. If you agree with me on that second premise, then the conclusion is that the Yotsuba group are not Mafia- only one of them is.

2 You don't "think" they need the detectives dead to win? Come on dude. They have a secret win condition which to me means that to err on the side of caution and lynch them would be best.

DharmaHelper wrote:Have a secret win condition,
Right, one that is probably not "kill all the detectives" or "eliminate all the Kira." Do you think they share the same win condition? I don't.
3 Somehow I doubt their win condition is "Help the civs pretty please."
DharmaHelper wrote:the possibility to NK,
A democratic Night kill, which means the Kira himself does not have direct control over this.

4 Ok great. But aren't all mafias technically democratic night kills? I don't understand how "Don't worry guys, they're DEMOCRATICALLY killing civs at night." makes your point any better.
DharmaHelper wrote:and at least one opportunity for BTSC
Correct. But not all of them, and not with the Kira, if my interpretation of Shingo Mido is correct.

DharmaHelper wrote:Viewing (and trying to frame) these groups as any form of civ-friendly is really quite absurd.
What "groups?" I did not argue that any "groups" are "civ-friendly." You are loading what I said with meaning that isn't there, Tomodachi.
5 You are advocating that the civs (Detectives) do not need certain parts of the mafias (Yotsuba and Light) dead to win the game and visa versa, which translates to me to "civ-friendly." since they can, in your view, win together.

Addendum: Now I see why I had the strength to go a second bout. It is a new Day.

1. No. I did not say or suggest to let them be. I said they were non-essential. They can't kill- only support. They are fish to fry, but smaller fish. Lynching them can only help the cause.

2. No I don't think that. Why? Simple. The goddamn host actually spells out the detectives' win conditions. Sorry, I'm not hunting Yotsuba. I'm hunting Kira. Have fun though bro.

3. I don't think they need to "help the civs" either, but I cannot imagine that they are pro-Kyosuke Higuchi. If I am right, then they are not anti-detective. That's an important differentiation.

4. Really? A BTSC group deciding together on a killing strategy is the same thing has non-BTSC folks voting?

5. No- I am arguing that the detectives need certain parts of one Mafia dead to win, and one member of an independent group dead to win. My reason for thinking this is that the host explicitly says so.

Go away DH. At least for the next hour. I know I will.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:02 pm**

Epignosis wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I made a list of four people that I would vote for on Day 1. Turnip Head is one of those, although not for the same reasoning you raised, llama.
Am I on your list?
No. I like you.

In fact, so that no one accuses me of being opportunistic or jumping onto other people's cases, I'll name the quartet now:

Ricochet, Turnip Head, spacedaisy, and FZ.

Why these four?

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:04 pm**

My first suspect is Epi, for the following reasons:

1. His exchange with me regarding the lynch options felt to me as though he was being obtuse and intentionally missing much of the point.
2. His attack on Ricochet feels opportunistic, hasty and ill-thought out.
3. He's literally saying "Hey lets not lynch ALL the mafia, am I right guys?"

Believe it or not, Epi is not my strongest suspect and I would probably not vote for him if the lynch was right now. Having played with Epi several times I am aware that what often seems like intentional shiftyness is just him being him.

My second suspect is llama for the following reason:
1) His mocking of the "Speculation" went a tad overboard in my view and felt antagonistic. With a game like this that contains many secrets the only way for us to have any idea of anything is to staart speculating, forming ideas and theories. Don't stiffle that by trivializing it.

My third suspect is Zomberella for this post
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 20#p114692

Which I found suspicious because it reads to me like an early attempt to put suspicion on players, but not by directly accusing them. Rather, by accusing them by proxy via boo and having boo do the legwork/put the pieces of that case together, therefore making the results of the case boos responsibility.

Trice made a similar post, which I will link here:
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 58#p114856

Attempting to put suspicion onto L/Light voters (and keep it there), thereby keeping the spotlight off of any of the other voters.

Zomberella also answered a question I had for Snowman, which raised my eyebrow a bit.

As for anyone else, those are the posts that jumped out at me after a re-read. I see some merit in the TH stuff. The *votes* that jump out at me are the ones for neither the Normal or L/Light options, and as Ace pointed out its not unreasonable that some mafia went for the safe "normal" option to avoid ruffling feathers.

As for Made's suggestion that Light/Ryuk voted or the L/Light option, something I'm willing to explore I suppose. But I doubt Light would draw too much attention when its completely avoidable.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:11 pm**

DharmaHelper wrote: My second suspect is llama for the following reason:
1) His mocking of the "Speculation" went a tad overboard in my view and felt antagonistic. With a game like this that contains many secrets the only way for us to have any idea of anything is to staart speculating, forming ideas and theories. Don't stiffle that by trivializing it.

If you find me suspicious because I am antagonistic, I'm surprised you haven't come gunning for me in every other game we've played together.

I take the Sherlock Holmes approach to speculation: without data, it is worse than useless. You get married to bad ideas and cling to them even when facts emerge that contradict them. If things happen that can only be explained by certain secrets, it's fine to assume those secrets to exist, but otherwise, speculation is a distraction and is counterproductive. That is my view.

I did notice Zombrella answering on Snowman's behalf, and I admit that is something that always raises my eyebrow as well.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:13 pm**

thellama73 wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote: My second suspect is llama for the following reason:
1) His mocking of the "Speculation" went a tad overboard in my view and felt antagonistic. With a game like this that contains many secrets the only way for us to have any idea of anything is to staart speculating, forming ideas and theories. Don't stiffle that by trivializing it.
If you find me suspicious because I am antagonistic, I'm surprised you haven't come gunning for me in every other game we've played together.

I take the Sherlock Holmes approach to speculation: without data, it is worse than useless. You get married to bad ideas and cling to them even when facts emerge that contradict them. If things happen that can only be explained by certain secrets, it's fine to assume those secrets to exist, but otherwise, speculation is a distraction and is counterproductive. That is my view.

I did notice Zombrella answering on Snowman's behalf, and I admit that is something that always raises my eyebrow as well.

I'm not arguing that its good or useful speculation. Everything starts somewhere, though. Would it not be better to cast a wide net, so to speak, and THEN let the facts emerge and eliminate the faultier speculations?

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:14 pm**

DharmaHelper wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote: My second suspect is llama for the following reason:
1) His mocking of the "Speculation" went a tad overboard in my view and felt antagonistic. With a game like this that contains many secrets the only way for us to have any idea of anything is to staart speculating, forming ideas and theories. Don't stiffle that by trivializing it.
If you find me suspicious because I am antagonistic, I'm surprised you haven't come gunning for me in every other game we've played together.

I take the Sherlock Holmes approach to speculation: without data, it is worse than useless. You get married to bad ideas and cling to them even when facts emerge that contradict them. If things happen that can only be explained by certain secrets, it's fine to assume those secrets to exist, but otherwise, speculation is a distraction and is counterproductive. That is my view.

I did notice Zombrella answering on Snowman's behalf, and I admit that is something that always raises my eyebrow as well.
I'm not arguing that its good or useful speculation. Everything starts somewhere, though. Would it not be better to cast a wide net, so to speak, and THEN let the facts emerge and eliminate the faultier speculations?

No, it would be much worse.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:18 pm**

thellama73 wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote: My second suspect is llama for the following reason:
1) His mocking of the "Speculation" went a tad overboard in my view and felt antagonistic. With a game like this that contains many secrets the only way for us to have any idea of anything is to staart speculating, forming ideas and theories. Don't stiffle that by trivializing it.
If you find me suspicious because I am antagonistic, I'm surprised you haven't come gunning for me in every other game we've played together.

I take the Sherlock Holmes approach to speculation: without data, it is worse than useless. You get married to bad ideas and cling to them even when facts emerge that contradict them. If things happen that can only be explained by certain secrets, it's fine to assume those secrets to exist, but otherwise, speculation is a distraction and is counterproductive. That is my view.

I did notice Zombrella answering on Snowman's behalf, and I admit that is something that always raises my eyebrow as well.

I have seen some of the other married couples do so as well, though.

And LLama, this is not a Sherlock Holmes story; actual facts are few and far between, and reality needs be suspended in the case of both theme & mechanics.

I have suspected you based on your tendency to squash discussion in the past, and been wrong. I will not suspect you for just that. But the answer you gave is fairly simplistic, and simplistic is not something I expect from you.

And re the discussion about whether the second group is a Mafia; I think it is

Civvie win conditions are stopping all Killers (kiras) and the head of Yotsuba Group is:
Kyosuke Higuchi (Third Kira)

I read that as they were baddies.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:19 pm**

thellama73 wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote: My second suspect is llama for the following reason:
1) His mocking of the "Speculation" went a tad overboard in my view and felt antagonistic. With a game like this that contains many secrets the only way for us to have any idea of anything is to staart speculating, forming ideas and theories. Don't stiffle that by trivializing it.
If you find me suspicious because I am antagonistic, I'm surprised you haven't come gunning for me in every other game we've played together.

I take the Sherlock Holmes approach to speculation: without data, it is worse than useless. You get married to bad ideas and cling to them even when facts emerge that contradict them. If things happen that can only be explained by certain secrets, it's fine to assume those secrets to exist, but otherwise, speculation is a distraction and is counterproductive. That is my view.

I did notice Zombrella answering on Snowman's behalf, and I admit that is something that always raises my eyebrow as well.
I'm not arguing that its good or useful speculation. Everything starts somewhere, though. Would it not be better to cast a wide net, so to speak, and THEN let the facts emerge and eliminate the faultier speculations?
No, it would be much worse.

I disagree, but whatever works for you. I'd much rather start with everything on the table, and develop the useful theories and throw out the useless ones.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:19 pm**

The proper way to investigate is this:
1. Collect all available facts.
2. Construct a theory that explains all available facts.

What too many people in this game do is this:
1. Construct a theory.
2. Collect/invent facts that support that theory.

You guys are free to disagree with me, but you're wrong, and I'm going to continue saying you're wrong.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:21 pm**

thellama73 wrote:The proper way to investigate is this:
1. Collect all available facts.
2. Construct a theory that explains all available facts.

What too many people in this game do is this:
1. Construct a theory.
2. Collect/invent facts that support that theory.

You guys are free to disagree with me, but you're wrong, and I'm going to continue saying you're wrong.

Motherfucker I watch CBS too.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:22 pm**

Llama, I certainly had conflicted thoughts on the different options, and I'm not ashamed of it. Epi, I don't know what your case on me is, but I'll address it if you post it.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:24 pm**

Do I have to remind people of the Game of Champions? It was not that long ago. Made was caught in a lie. A simple theory to explain that fact was that he was bad. It also turned out to be the truth.

But people were already married to theory that Made was good, so they invented imaginary "facts" concealed within the secrets to explain away his lie. This is not an effective strategy for the civvies.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:39 pm**

thellama73 wrote:Do I have to remind people of the Game of Champions? It was not that long ago. Made was caught in a lie. A simple theory to explain that fact was that he was bad. It also turned out to be the truth.

But people were already married to theory that Made was good, so they invented imaginary "facts" concealed within the secrets to explain away his lie. This is not an effective strategy for the civvies.

Yes. Games are starting to blend together. I don't remember straight up lying that game, I only do that when i'm a civvie :P

If you're referring to my saying my vote was forced, it was a coincidence that I was bad.
That being said, it's a good idea to not count someone as civvie just because they were proven to tell the truth, i'll floated by doing that, and looking back further, Bea got away with that really hard in Monty python.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:43 pm**

Made wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Do I have to remind people of the Game of Champions? It was not that long ago. Made was caught in a lie. A simple theory to explain that fact was that he was bad. It also turned out to be the truth.

But people were already married to theory that Made was good, so they invented imaginary "facts" concealed within the secrets to explain away his lie. This is not an effective strategy for the civvies.
Yes. Games are starting to blend together. I don't remember straight up lying that game, I only do that when i'm a civvie :P

If you're referring to my saying my vote was forced, it was a coincidence that I was bad.
That being said, it's a good idea to not count someone as civvie just because they were proven to tell the truth, i'll floated by doing that, and looking back further, Bea got away with that really hard in Monty python.

Not to get too off topic, But Made forced me to vote for him D2 so I assumed he could not be Boddy, and that Hatter had forced him to vote for whoever he voted for. Only during the bass/dom lynch did it click that Made was Suit.

Hows THAT for fitting the facts around your preferred theory, ey llama? HOISTED BY YOUR OWN PETARD!

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:53 pm**

Okay, you guys don't think confirmation bias is a problem in mafia. I do. Let's leave it at that.

In other news, I finished watching Death Note. I liked the first 25 episodes, but thought it dragged unnecessarily in the last half.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:55 pm**

thellama73 wrote:In other news, I finished watching Death Note. I liked the first 25 episodes, but thought it dragged unnecessarily in the last half.

That's a pretty commonly shared opinion.

I personally still liked the second half, but I can understand that criticism.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:18 pm**

I'm going to go ahead and point out what to me is blatantly obvious but has some how gone undiscussed in what Epi and DH have already been talking about re: the mafia (maybe, kinda, sorta) teams. Remember Bioshock. That MP game where I was right on the nose about the breakdown of roles from the get-go, outlining it in detail on D4 when I was killed for being right? Because I do.

Now, I don't know about this theme, but here's what seems obvious from the roles.

1) Not all detectives are actually civvies, because right in the description they have anti-L leanings, and at least one of them mentions going to 'the mafia' (that's mello). Now, I don't know if the Yotsuba group are gangsters or not, and are like an actual mafia, but that was my assumption based on what the story seems to be about. If that isn't in the case, it could refer to either (or some weird ass combination?) of the two non-detective groups.

2) The detectives need all Kira's dead. Plain and simple. They also need justice to prevail. Now, that could just be flavour about what happens when the Kira's are dead, but that seems wrong, so I think for the sake of simplicity, we can treat their win conditions as all Kira's being dead and ???, probably dependent on the role and not as a whole group (since as a group they are conflicted).

3) We have no idea what the Yotsuba's need to do to win. We do know they don't have BTSC to start, and we do know Higuchi (the leader of the 'team' I guess) is the third kira (suggesting to me the first and second kira need to die or some chain of events need to occur for them to lose the NK and it to go to Higuchi). Once Higuchi has a death note (and is therefore able to start killing) they all get to start giving input for how they want to kill. After one kill, one role gets a call. After 2, another role brings a bunch of the other people in the group together (that would seem to suggest BTSC to me). Now, one of those 4 vanilla looking roles isn't even mentioned as being invited to the secret meeting, so either that would make sense as the caller, or the role that was added to the game when we went from 26 to 27 (and probably just needs to be added to the invite).

Now, I still think they're a mafia team. The description to me sounds like they have a unified win condition, and 4 roles have no description or secrets, so I would assume they have none. Add to that the fact that they can kill, and the method for BTSC while not clear cut seems reasonably easy to puzzle out. The one thing I am thinking, is that since Higuchi is just a tool of Kira #1, maybe that's some sort of traitor role, and at some point (or if conditions are met) maybe the conditions of all those roles change (or maybe they don't even have any to start, and learn them down the line).

All that to say, someone in the Yotsuba group dies, I would count that as a win that while not as good as killing a Kira (or anyone that is part of the second sympathizer team) since the detective conditions are not as clear cut as some people would seem to like them to be. Which makes the kill priority: Kira = Kira 2 = Kira 3 = Kira X, a sympathizer is better than a yotsuba group member but a yotsuba member isn't a bad catch. Then maybe 1 or 2 detectives who it wouldn't be sad to see go, but just because they don't agree with L as a role doesn't even mean the player in the role wants him dead, so I wouldn't be happy if they died or count it as a win. Then we have the indy, and I have no idea where to place it.

4) Then lets round it out. We have Kira and the sympathizers. This seems like the really clear cut mafia team. We know they need the detectives dead, and then a utopian world order has to be started (Light hates criminals, my assumption is the Yatsuba group are gangsters, I assume Light and co need at least some of those roles dead to win).

So, to me it boils down simpler than Bioshock was, while still being unconventional.

The Detectives are civvies. Within the group are possible traitors or traitor-like roles who may just not get a say in what happens to their win conditions.

Kira and the Sympathizers are mafia.

The Yotsuba group are like solo-baddies to start I think (or at least that's how we can treat them), and maybe some of them can become part of a team of baddies, or maybe some can become indies. The Higuchi wiki link Epi posted doesn't really clear up what happens with the spoiler stuff he talked about for me to puzzle that out, but it seems like anyone who is familiar with the material should be able to clear that up well enough to set up reasonable expectations.

Then the indie. A best guess of stuff like win-with-anyone, SK, or join a team, again seems like something anyone with familiarity should be able to help us out with.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:19 pm**

DharmaHelper wrote:My first suspect is Epi, for the following reasons:

1. His exchange with me regarding the lynch options felt to me as though he was being obtuse and intentionally missing much of the point.
2. His attack on Ricochet feels opportunistic, hasty and ill-thought out.
3. He's literally saying "Hey lets not lynch ALL the mafia, am I right guys?"

Believe it or not, Epi is not my strongest suspect and I would probably not vote for him if the lynch was right now. Having played with Epi several times I am aware that what often seems like intentional shiftyness is just him being him.

1. I can't help it if I'm right and you aren't. So sorry.
2. Maybe. All of the above?
3. Ah. Yes. My master stroke. Well played DH.

I refuse to turn this into Epignosis vs. DH. I think that's what he's counting on.

No wait, I will. Let's do it. Counterpoints:

1. DharmaHelper pushed for the MOST anti civilian position there was. He supported a Day 0 option that could make it possible for your vote not to count, your enemy's vote to count more, and for two Mafia to have info that only one civilian would have. Operating under the assumption that all Yotsuba are bad, he gave one random case where civilians benefited from that option (and ignored hundreds of cases where they didn't).

2. DharmaHelper is upset that people don't participate or "play the game," but when I do, it's opportunistic, hasty, and ill-thought out. I wonder why that is. DH, what do you think of Ricochet?

3. DharmaHelper can read better than this. I play D&D with him. He notices the most minute details, even making fun of some of us like leggyorlyb and me in the process for missing things. And yet he misrepresents what I've said about win conditions (and misuses the word "literally," which is even worse). For the record, my position is this: Lynch all Mafia, but only four people actually are Mafia. They just happen to exist in two factions. One in Yotsuba, and three in the Sympathizers. If you must lynch secondary Mafia to get to the Kiras, fine. But the Kiras a top priority. I believe DharmaHelper is being shady. I do not know why.

Here is what I want DH to answer: Why do you think the detectives, a group of 12, have to lynch 14 players in order to win?

Addendum: Ain't reading boo until I piss.

Posted: **Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:25 pm**

Epignosis wrote: 1. DharmaHelper pushed for the MOST anti civilian position there was. He supported a Day 0 option that could make it possible for your vote not to count, your enemy's vote to count more, and for two Mafia to have info that only one civilian would have. Operating under the assumption that all Yotsuba are bad, he gave one random case where civilians benefited from that option (and ignored hundreds of cases where they didn't).

Yeah, and then right away decided that he was going to target people who vocally disagree with him. I can understand being civ and genuinely thinking that L/Light is beneficial (though I and others obviously don't agree at all with that), but it's really not very civ to want to lynch people just for disagreeing with you. I think he's just trying to confuse the more wishy-washy civ posters and get some civ lynches before he gets killed - which would make sense if he has a non-critical baddie role.

The Syndicate

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