[ENDGAME] Bullets Over Broadway Mafia

[Sloonei]

for what it's worth, this much vote analysis is not really a thing on RYM. We certainly look at votes and use them in building our suspicions, but no one has charts or goes as in depth as G-man did, so this is all very new to me.

[Golden]

for what it's worth, this much vote analysis is not really a thing on RYM. We certainly look at votes and use them in building our suspicions, but no one has charts or goes as in depth as G-man did, so this is all very new to me.

Yeah, I get it. When you only get one vote, and no chance to change it, your choice of target and your timing can betray you so much more easily than with changeable votes. So vote analysis becomes inherently more valuable.

Most of my better civ wins have been created by good voting analysis. It's why I (and G-Man, who does after all share my mafia pedigree) struggle more with changeable votes, because it does not work to my strengths in analysis. Your RYM isos etc were all new to me. Not the overall idea of reading back and casing someone based on their posts, but doing every single person as opposed to doing it just to build a case on someone you were suspicious of...

[Sloonei]

I'm definitely more comfortable with changeable votes. On RYM the poll is a fluid and unsettled thing until the very end of the day, as you've probably noticed yourself. Early votes have always been more of a way to gauge the general trend of suspicions in the thread and people seldom settle on a final vote until they absolutely have to, and votes are always changing.
Vote changes themselves can be pretty informative, but I understand how they complicate analysis here.

[Golden]

Oh, sloonei, the rest of my reason for 'why cobalt' is this:

So I went back to look at timing.

Epi dies. Epi replaces in. Epi has (I think) only two posts - one where he says 'I know who killed me' and one where he says 'my suspicions haven't changed'. Then TGG asks to be subbed out.

I honestly think it's very consistent with someone who was part of a team that killed epi, that they killed them for cause, and was upset when he was able to sub back in and express the particular sentiments that he did. I think G-Man and LC are a team. I feel less sure that bubbles is, but she definitely could be.

Does it suck that someone subbing out on a matter of principle could sink a team? Yes. But this is why you should always keep your cool in mafia. I guarantee you, when people complain about things being unfair in this game, it's almost always mafia. Because they perceive it has harmed their chances. I don't think Epi's views necessarily held great weight, and I think the reaction to him subbing back in provides a whole lot more information about how important they believed killing epi to be.

The reason for mafia 1 to kill epi had nothing to do with Long Con. It had nothing to do with SVS. So, reading back epi 1.0s posts on day 1, his only other clear major suspicion is Cobalt.

A large part of my reason for calling out G-Man as bad was because I think the reason TGG quit was not just because epi was back, but because epi had correctly fingered one of his teammates.

Lets not rest on it being Cobalt. I want to go back and read what epi had to say that day. But I'd be stunned if TGG quit on principle, just because epi was back, if epi hadn't even figured out any of his team. I'm pretty sure he quit because he felt the host had disadvantaged his team. (Lesson to all - you can do much worse damage to your own team by overreacting to a host decision than the host can by making it!)

[Sloonei]

I thought you had previously stated that you were suspicious of Cobalt because of his interactions with Long Con, who would be a member of Mafia 2. Which team do you think it's more likely Cobalt would belong to?

[nijuukyugou]

Hooray hooray! Glad G-Man was pulling a Ruth

ninjujaja
I’ve been wanting to call Blooper a suspect pretty much all game but I have not been able to. A lot of her posts have read as fairly safe, but I’m not exactly picking up any hints of dishonest or deceit either, and I remember thinking a few of her observations were pretty solid. Let us see.

Spoiler: show

Mmmmk somewhat caught up. I'd say remind me not to leave the thread for too long so I don't have 4 pages to read, but I'll inevitably do it again.

I don't get the Hedgeowl suspicion at all. She posted while catching up and gave her input on a couple main discussions. None of her posts look particularly bad to me, just kind of average minimal-but-sufficient participation. I guess I understood LC's point (though it was regarding SVS) about commenting on issues rather than players, but Hedgie gave her views on LC/Epi/SVS so that doesn't really apply. I don't know, she could be hiding behind that type of participation (I haven't played many games with her but isn't it kind of her norm?) but I just don't really see the reasons for suspecting her, they seem contrived.

I could see SVS as bad. I mean, SVS is always bad

Agreed (at least the part about Hedgeowl suspicion). I think it was good of TH to search her like he did, but I disagree that it's baddie behavior from her. I don't think his suspicion was contrived.

Dragon D. Luffy has been replaced by Cancucklehead. She cannot be lynched today.

what are you so scared of, little puppy?

You didn't witness the maelstrom of deceit that was Canucklehead in Roger Rabbit.

They still whisper about it in Toontown.

(Just kidding, Canuck - I was actually very excited to see your name!)

Consequently, my mafia game, which is often defined by a high volume of posts, will be affected this game. I will be much more likely to pop in less frequently, which will increase my already notoriously long posts probably much more so, and make my style seem more like a cross of Blooper-esque, Epi-esque, and MP-esque, rather than straight-up MP-esque combination of frequency and volume.

I'm an -esque!! I'm so touched

Blooper, you note in this post multiple "truces", but ask the question whether there is just one thereafter. Devin and I never agreed to a truce. Just wanted to clear that up.

You specifically note you have "no strong opinions". If that is the case, do you have weak opinions? If so, what are they?

Fair enough. I just saw a lot of (mostly jokingly it seems) buddy-buddy Day 0 stuff, so I figured I'd comment on it. I'm notoriously bad at getting lost in the first several days of larger games because of the sheer volume of people, so I'm trying a new thing called "comment about SOMETHING, whatever it is" to at least keep a placeholder. So far, not doing so hot. But hey, here I am!

As for my opinions (and the actual contributory points of this post), I have a few opinions. I never trust Epi, but damn I do love actually playing a game with him, and whatever my vibes are right now, I'm feeling all right about him today. This means that I think he's genuinely baddie hunting, and I think both of his suspicions of LC and SVS are fairly sound (I almost said interesting but I know better than to use that now :P). I think LC's response to Epi's going after him looks too defensive to me. I think my general view of SVS is that she gets defensive regardless of alignment, which makes her hard to read, but I agree with others (can't remember exactly who) that suddenly defending the whole "interesting" argument in the manner she did was suspicious. So, there's that.

I don't have a good read of the new people in here, but I'm glad to see some fresh meat (at least to the Syndicate). It certainly makes for some...fascinating gameplay.

I like this as an early post. She offers a number of definitive reads, a few of which I agreed with at the time and nothing in here feels like she is laboring for content. She seems to be keeping an open mind about the game and is at least trying to keep an eye on a number of people at once. Dig it.

Spoiler: show

The bad news is, I've been without internet access since last night due to traveling, power outages, and, y'know, socially interacting with people that I've traveled to see in real life (might need to get my priorities in order). This means I haven't had much of a chance to read through the thread as much as I'd like before the poll ends (I am still socializing after all :P ) or go back and look at something like I promised someone (I can't even remember who I promised this to. Long day).

The good news is, for the first time in my mafia-playing career, I have decent suspicion from what I have been able to gather of all three of the top vote-getters in this thread, and I'm okay with voting any of them, which is...a miracle. The question is, who do I want to pick?

I have been able to read a bit. Cobalt's made me itchy, and I read over the last page and the opportunistic vote switch. I'd still like to analyze him more closely if I get the chance. SVS has been highly, HIGHLY defensive and has weirdly voted for herself, which is something I'm not used to (the self-voting, not the defensiveness), so slightly mixed feelings but very much leaning bad. But tonight, I think I want to make things...interesting. I also like Epi's case and interaction with LC - like it in the way that I think it points to LC as a baddie. Epi's a manipulative bastard, but he's a manipulative bastard giving me good vibes, and I wanna see what happens when I press the big red button that no one should press (and by that I mean make the votes closer right now).

So I'm gonna vote LC.

Linki - Silence broken!

I continue to be wary of anyone who provides an unprompted excuse for their lack of participation, but other than that I dig this post again from ninja for many of the same reasons as before. Her LC vote does seem contrived in any way and does not look like an attempt to bus a teammate. More townie points for Blooper from this post.

Spoiler: show

Also would you say things have been made more interesting by your LC vote, Blooperstranger?

Oh, quite! It's garnered some good reactions.

I had forgotten about her Day 1 “make things interesting” vote comment. It still hasn’t really been explained and I never saw any evidence of her using any of those “good reactions” she garnered from it. If she could give some evidence of this I’d be happy.
There’s nothing that I can point to in Blooper’s post history that I find scummy. This is ridiculous and I’m very frustrated with you, nijfijaijf! I even managed to find reasons to suspect Golden.Ugh.
That said, if there is a reason to suspect her, it’s because of that odd behavior sig had toward her before he was lynched, where he seemed really desperate to put some kind of a read on her but never really expressed anything too clearly. Also, the immaculate status of her posts. They’re too clean. Surely she’s got something to hide. Uh
Thoughts, niju? I’m now in agreement with the others who’ve said you’re difficult to read. If you’re scum then I’m utterly baffled right now. Town read. What just happened?

I told you I was perfect in every way, every game But you are right - I haven't said much about what made that day so...interesting. Allow me to oblige.

In general, after my LC vote Day 1, people seemed to flip out and start changing votes, but that is often the norm here on TS with changeable votes. However, it was specific reactions that got my attention. First, it gave me (and others in their analyses) my first real ping of sig, who was the first to freak out and try to call me bad for mixing things up when I did. He freaked the FUCK OUT (and I laughed so, so hard). Honestly, it also made me look a bit in your direction since you freaked out about a possible tie, but that was a mafia cultural difference that you explained. nutella switched her vote soon after from SVS to Cobalt. Golden changed his vote a few times to break the tie. Hedgeowl and Gumshoe came in last minute and voted. Cobalt tried to say he would've switched yadda yadda yadda (I've already said this twice). Looking at this now several days later, it's not as much of a great analyzing point as I'd like it to be, and the "good reactions" I mentioned were rather more amusing than informative, but there's the raw data of what went down that day.

I'm still itchy about Cobalt, especially since his activity has died down considerably these past few days. His two posts for today were either nonsense about G-Man's supposed threat to being voted or about getting back into the game when his RL stuff dies down. The RL stuff might be true and I hope it's not terrible! but his participation has been little more than "DIE LC" and getting angrily defensive when he has been here, so I'd like to see what he means by getting back in "full force." I am a bit wary of nutella based on behavior (I had mentioned she seemed more serious than what I'd experienced as her civ self in the past) and that vote switch from Day 1, but then I look at her vote record - she has voted for people on both mafia teams. However, for some reason I'd thought she'd voted earlier in the LC and sig lynches, which is what really held me back, but she seems to have voted when they were pretty much a done deal (aside from vote switching mechanics). So I guess what I'm saying is that I need to look back at her again and she could still be a baddie.

I know that's not what you guys are talking about currently in the thread at this hour, but I figured I'd get these thoughts out while they were in my head and to make myself tired enough to go to sleep (and because Guess Who might start tomorrow, which will likely alter my concentration and participation in this game). However, I will at least comment about vote analysis in finding baddies - it freaking works. It caught us BAD in Biblical, as Golden attests so I'm glad to see it being used and discussed here

For the record, I'm still not tired. Maybe I'll try reading myself to sleep.

[Sloonei]

Any and all thoughts are welcome at any time, thank you niju. What are your thoughts on Cobalt surviving the lynch and his supposed role?

[Sloonei]

Cobalt's supposed role is really the only reason I have him as a town read, but that could be completely off base. I still don't really have a good feel for the flavor of roles here, so I would have to rely on the thoughts and analysis of some of the community's regular players on that issue. In my experience, a role that can alter a lynch result like that is much more likely to be to be town than scum.

[DFaraday]

Great result! Bye G-Man.

Question for DFaraday: I’ve seen you mention fingersplints in a couple of posts. What is your read on her? Could you elaborate? Also any other reads you have at this time would be helpful.

I think I'm leaning slightly bad on FS. She pretty much bandwagoned late on the LC lynch, which makes me wonder if it was just a blending tactic. Other than that, I haven't noticed her posts standing out very much, so I'm a bit worried if she's trying to fly under the radar.

Off the top of my head, Cobalt and Hedge would be my suspicions right now. Maybe MM as well, although given that he's almost certainly not Mafia 2, he is less likely to be bad.

I skipped everything else and just read the part about me, so in the morning I'll catch up and offer more detailed thoughts.

[timmer]

Hey all, I'm sorry for the lack of output on my part, I've just been away from my laptop quite a bit. I'm glad to see G-Man's threat of whatever turned out to be a dud, lol until next time, buddy!

I'll be catching up a bit right now, but I won't be full-blown back into the game until Thursday. Like any good Canadian, I'm celebrating Canada Day by... going on a road trip to the United states, lol?

[Golden]

I thought you had previously stated that you were suspicious of Cobalt because of his interactions with Long Con, who would be a member of Mafia 2. Which team do you think it's more likely Cobalt would belong to?

I think the mafia 1 case is stronger than the mafia 2 case. But yes, I do recognise my reasons for seeing him as possibly bad are mutually exclusive, but I could see either being true.

[Golden]

Cobalt's supposed role is really the only reason I have him as a town read, but that could be completely off base. I still don't really have a good feel for the flavor of roles here, so I would have to rely on the thoughts and analysis of some of the community's regular players on that issue. In my experience, a role that can alter a lynch result like that is much more likely to be to be town than scum.

In games here, my view is that you should generally not assume affiliation based on power. There are some exceptions - a mafia doctor would be odd and I can't recall seeing one, for instance. But in my experience baddie teams commonly have lynch switches as a defensive power. I've actually caught a baddie team by using this power against them once when I knew I was safe from a lynch and bluffed one of them into switching the lynch to me.

[Golden]

i do not know why there is an angry taunting face next to dragonucklehead's name.

It is because your Freudian inner voice thinks canucklehead is a meanie.

[FZ.]

Good result, though not really surprising.

Scotty, no, I'm not sure that corruption means the player will change to bad, but I want to be sure about this, because if any of us were bad and could recruit or something of the sort, we'd take the most trusted player in the game. Right now, that's obviously Sloonei. So unless someone saved him, or he has a power to survive a NK on his own, I would be quite worried.

As for Golden voting Epi, that's a very weird choice, and I think we should think about why it's there. I doubt he was forced to do it, because Epig was not a high candidate for a lynch, so why waste it on him. So it seems he voted Epi for a good reason, at least to him.

Oh, and Neverwhere just reminded me about Splints.
Splints, of course civvies hesitate, but I think your choices for baddies are too easy. I think Bubbles is not bad, and based on his recent posts, I don't see Bass as bad either. I could be wrong of course, but it seems as if you chose the easy targets.

@sloonei, this is the post that first pinged me about FZ. Particularly, the middle paragraph. I do not at all like her attempt to read meaning in to my vote for epi while I'm not around to provide context. Particularly when she explains away the possibility of the vote being forced when I had no previous form for suspecting epi.

I've also subsequently been pinged about her focus on you as the corruptee, primarily because this does not back it up at all:

SLOONEI sits on the floor. Silence. A pair of roller-skates with blades on them whiz by, only to just miss. ENTER two HOODED FIGURES. They shake hands, and ascend out.

SLOONEI exits SR.

I would think if this post indicated Wildhorn successfully corrupted someone, wildhorn is one hooded figure and the person corrupted is the other. But the two of them leave, and THEN sloonei exits stage right. For me, this borders on evidence that if there was a corruption, it is NOT sloonei - a point I've already made before. Certainly, it at least provides no evidence it would be you...

I have the vague theory that FZ could be on mafia team 2, could have a role that controls votes (or with a teammate who controls votes) and knows whether a corruption occurred and who did it, and that these posts are deliberate distancing.

I wouldn't say this is an exceptionally strong read, but I'm wary of FZ right now.

I do think she is genuinely baddie hunting (eg posts on splints) but in this game you can do that and still be bad.

I actually think being suspected a little is not bad, but I have to reply to this, because it's crap (no offense ).

I was trying to understand why you voted the way you voted. I did not push for voting him, nor did I make something big out of it. I'm a person that needs to understand things, and when something that I don't understand happens, I bring it up. I want things to be out there. I was afraid that if you were silenced because you found out something important, they might try to kill you next before you could talk. The part about the forced vote was because in many games played here, there was a power to force a vote, so it felt like something that was possible. I didn't do anything with it other than bring it up. When you came in and said it wasn't the case, I dropped it. You are making something out of nothing.

As for Sloonei and the corruption thing, let's just say I've been burnt by something like that in the past. The most trusted player is the most prone to be recruited if there's such a power in a game, especially if we don't know of such a power. The way Dom's story was worded suggested it wasn't a save, but that something did happen. The high five along with the PM from the first night suggested it was a possibility. I haven't done anything to make Sloonei look bad. All I've done was put something on the table. I even told people there was not much point discussing it further at that point.

If you think I'm scummy for bringing things up and putting them on the table, that's your choice. But a civ would look at my entire behavior and judge it all with its context.

I think I actually trust both Golden and Sloonei, as well as Scotty. Though I'm fully aware one could be that baddie that fools everyone. That's what LC did on Flash. A high poster that everyone seemed to trust. Not sure which of them it could be yet, if at all.

I think I agree with both Golden and Sloonei on DF. He's been laying low, posting enough to be seen and not really clashing with anyone. Staying in everyone's good graces.

Nutella and Splints are still in my not trusted list. I go back and forth on them, but they are far from being on my trust list.

Neverwhere is someone I don't know if I trust very much. She seems to be agreeing with me quite often, and mostly on what I said on Sloonei and what I said about Golden's vote for Epig. It seemed a little too much to me. Not sure what to make of it yet. I might have to go read her posts later

BR is a question mark. I know she thinks I'm always suspicious of her, but I don't think I am. At least not to the point I aggressively go after her. I have to question her contribution here, which is not very high, but nothing screams baddie either.

Epig is a mystery. I don't think anyone can deny he's posting less than he did on day 1. He wanted LC out, but what I want to check later is, did he continue going after him strongly when he came back. If it was as strong, I think he can't be from his team, though it's possible, but if he subtly backed off without making it too obvious, it's possible. I think I recall he voted for G-man both days, and when I asked him what he would do, he said he doesn't want a tie. That made me feel better about him, because I think I know what his role was before. But the point is he didn't vote for LC but G-man. As for the other team, his exchange with G-man seems genuine, so I doubt he's on that team. Maybe he's an independent who doesn't care as much who wins and is laying low to not get NK again.

I don't see why both of you are seeing Timmer as such a civ. I agree that he did seem that way in the early stages, but he hasn't really been very helpful lately. Maybe it's real life, but I need a whole lot more to put him as most likely civ.

I think MM and Bass are not bad, but it's mostly based on gut feel.

Bubbles seems okay to me. Like I said before, she looks like an easy target. Her saying she's a civ again and that she would be better at catching baddies after she finally plays one, could be looked at as a reverse baddie psychology, but it felt genuine to me.

I'm not sure I agree with Golden on Cobalt. I was getting a civ read from him, but I need to look at his connections with Sig and g-man. I'm at work, so no time right now.

All the low or non posters are null for me. I hate them Why play in the first place? If you're a civ, you're hurting us. If you're a baddie, you're a coward baddie. Nothing more to say on that. RL comes first, and if it happens on rare occasions, it's okay. Life happens. But some players do it every game.

[FZ.]

Forgot Canuck and Blooper. No bad feelings about them at the moment. Inclined to trust Chanuck more, but Bloop isn't that alarming to me either

[Golden]

FZ, what you just described is exactly the opposite of my perception...

It felt to me like you brought up the idea of the vote being forced, but that you dismissed it rather than saying it was a possibility. I found it odd that you raised it only to write it off as the explanation.

[Golden]

BUT - I do think the other things you have done feel civ, which is why you are in my slight mafia vibe zone. And that post you just made is supatown.

[Golden]

BR is a question mark. I know she thinks I'm always suspicious of her, but I don't think I am. At least not to the point I aggressively go after her. I have to question her contribution here, which is not very high, but nothing screams baddie either.

Yeah. I didn't want to push this earlier because the last thing I want is for BR to feel she is being pushed hard early, but I still don't feel like I got a response to this that I found satisfying:

Spoiler: show

Golden you are full of shit if you think I'm posting less content in early game than normal. I'm BR that's what I do unless I have an info role to lead the way.

So, I don't have a whole lot of recent games to go on, BR, where you have been civ, so I picked one that I know you were civ in. Roger Rabbit.

On day one, you expressed:

Suspicion of: MM, zombs, aces
An unwillingness to vote/civvie vibes from: rabbit, golden, juliet
Other acknowledgement of: LC, MP

And you even mentioned 'everyone else'.

Look at this post form day one in that game:

I'm really having a hard time with this lynch. Plus my sister calls me like 5 mins ago to talk, I had to tell her I have Mafia to vote in. She thinks I'm a little crazy but got off the phone.

Ok, here's a start of a list.
MM - I feel like he was called out on the self vote and then people came to his rescue. I liked LC's point but wasn't completely sold. MP points out he's done it a lot recently, MM then proves he hasn't. To me that just adds to what LC said and he was a baddie in film that self-voted and could be playing the same safe tactic. Who knows. I'm not likely to vote for him at this point because it looks awfully like a bandwagon, which makes me think he's civ.

Juliets has been a little flip floppy but she still sounds like the charming civ she always does.

Zombie girl does seem a little different in this game and maybe she is struggling with being a baddie. I know I did my first.

I am going to go back and read Goldens case on Aces, I know them both well and maybe I can see something there. The first time I tried to read it my sister called.

I think every one else I have nothing to say about or look civvie. Except for Rabbit who is evil either way.

Stop posting, I'm running out of time here.

And this one from night one:

Ugh! I hate doing this but Rabbit you are making a mountain of a mole hill and painting your own scene. Maybe I just read the thread differently than you but you are putting way too much credit on LC. His original post towards MM was HOURS before the vote was up. It was a singular that he had left alone. Yet you give him all the credit because a bunch of people took it as an easy way out?

MM Voters.

Metalmarsh89 - self voted, caused the suspicion
AceofSpaces - the baddie
juliets - seemed shifty this day period, one to watch
Bass_the_Clever - Came in and took an easy way out quoting LC
nijuukyugou - I can't remember anything about her at this point.
Zomberella12 - Thinks aces is an asset (she's new)
Long Con - The original one to call MM on the self vote, imo the most valid vote here
Canucklehead - The last vote on Aces, one of the more suspect to me at this point.


Voter suspects in general.
MP - Decided to vote off after MM had quite a lead
Rabbit - Decided to stay away from the two top vote getters at an important time when his vote could have mattered
Splints - decided to go after Zomba, with the 11th vote tied her with aces. Possibly trying to give voters another option

My list would be as follows at this moment:
1) MP
2) Bass
3) Rabbit
4) Splints
5)Juliets/Canuck I put these two on the same line because I feel sameish about them.

By no means does Aces turning up baddie make MM civvie by default. I don't suspect him at this point but there is still a possibility for now.

Linki Rabbit: It was not the deciding vote. Even if in your opinion it was. By possible votes after it could have changed. Even you could have changed your mind. Canucks vote is the vote that made it impossible for Aces to be in the lead.

So - don't go saying I'm full of shit that you give content as a civ early in the game.

That's good Golden. If your civ your wrong, if you aren't then you don't care.

This whole like I found incongruous. One thing I will say for BR is that later on I pressed her for reads and she gave them. There are times when we genuinely feel a particular way about our own style and the facts don't necessarily back that up and that doesn't mean we are bad. But it seemed to me like BR simply wrote that off.

I'll also say that this post:

Hey BR, not going to ask your view on LC but do you feel like otherwise you are beginning to get a sense of general reads on people outside of TH and bass?

I have several people on my not so naughty list. I haven't seen a reason to mention them because I don't suspect them.

I do however believe Gman should be lynched, as well as Bass. I think Gman should probably go first.

I however don't believe LC killed Epignosis. It's not his style. I have been trying to stay out of the whole LC thing though.

I want to hear enough out of TH to believe him to be good. (I know you technically didn't want to hear about TH and Bass but I don't want them to think I forgot about them.)

I'm not seeing what FZ is seeing in Splints.

Not sure what to make of you yet Golden. I always lean civ so I have put you in neutral to be on the safe side.

I am a personal reader so these newer guys to me

Leads me to believe that BR is not on mafia team 1 which would mean that if she was bad she was on a team with LC. She and LC like to stay out of each others way, but that does give them a very convenient route to not creating connections when they are on a team together - as seen in the Flash.

I don't really know what to think of BR right now, except that her positive contributions haven't shaken the fact that I'm wary of her just yet.

[FZ.]

FZ, what you just described is exactly the opposite of my perception...

It felt to me like you brought up the idea of the vote being forced, but that you dismissed it rather than saying it was a possibility. I found it odd that you raised it only to write it off as the explanation.

I was trying to understand why you voted that way. My options were by force or by choice and I brought them up. I dismissed the force option because it seemed stupid to force you to vote for Epig when no one was even discussing him. What would baddies gain from it? So I chose choice and wanted to understand why. I thought maybe you found out something and that the baddies somehow knew you did and silenced you for it. But you dismissed it when you came back, so I just dropped it altogether

[FZ.]

And actually, that first post you quoted from BR makes me feel better about her, not worse. In addition, though I didn't like her telling me she's fed up with me every game now, it felt like a genuine civ frustration. So I'm putting her on a slightly townie read.

[Golden]

I would say a lot of her reactions this game have felt like genuine frustration. But, as LC proved, genuine frustration is not always a civilian thing - mafia can get genuinely frustrated too. I'm not taking genuine frustration as a sign of a civ.

What bothered me about that BR quote wasn't the first post. It's the way she brushed off, rather than addressing, my example of why her first post isn't necessarily correct.

@FZ - Your posts today make me feel a lot better about you.

[Marmot]

And now for the colorful abridged version. For reference:
Confirmed town
Strong town
Moderate town
Slight town
Neutral
Slight mafia
Moderate mafia
Strong mafia
Confirmed mafia

Spoiler: show

timmer
nijuukyugou
Canucklehead
Golden
Scotty
FZ
Hedgeowl
Cobalt
Black Rock
TinyBubbles
Turnip Head
Bullzeye/DREAM/Devin
fingersplints
Epignosis 2.0, because I've decided I want to take a stance on him.
Gumshoe
Neverwhere
Bass the Clever
Nutella
DFaraday
MetalMarsh

italics used to denote people who I've not ISO'd yet.
I've also not yet factored in interactions with G-man/Gamerguy and new developments.
forgive me if i missed anyone.

Good to know I'm number 1 (one) at something.

[Marmot]

I thought you had previously stated that you were suspicious of Cobalt because of his interactions with Long Con, who would be a member of Mafia 2. Which team do you think it's more likely Cobalt would belong to?

I think the mafia 1 case is stronger than the mafia 2 case. But yes, I do recognise my reasons for seeing him as possibly bad are mutually exclusive, but I could see either being true.

You don't think Cobalt going after Long Con on Day 0 is a bit... odd?

[Canucklehead]

i do not know why there is an angry taunting face next to dragonucklehead's name.

It is because your Freudian inner voice thinks canucklehead is a meanie.

Not possible. My username is cleverly chosen to ensure that people only associate me with niceness, maple syrup, and eternally affable actor Paul Gross. There is no possible way that anyone could ever think I'm mean. It's been proven through careful scienterrific studies.

[Cobalt]

I'll be honest with you guys, I've been lazy as hell with this game because life has been kicking my ass. I know Sloonei has mentioned it and others have discussed how I've gone quiet (Golden in particular actually finds that scummy of me). I committed to my early gut read on Long Con, like a quarter out of thirst for revenge and three quarters trusting my gut because it's always gotten me places, especially in unfamiliar environments. I've been promising to elaborate for awhile now on my scum reads and I haven't delivered, and I know that looks pretty shitty considering I survived the lynch and wasn't lying about my ability (Long Con managed to survive me putting the lynch onto him) and when Sig who had called me out and tried to discredit me flipped scum, and later Long Con flipped scum, I did somehow manage to garner some civ cred, as Golden says.

However, my lack of following through has nothing to do with my alignment and rather to do with my lack of actual participation and keeping up with the thread which has been difficult for me recently. I'm sorry for not delivering, but I plan to soon.

[Epignosis]

I thought you had previously stated that you were suspicious of Cobalt because of his interactions with Long Con, who would be a member of Mafia 2. Which team do you think it's more likely Cobalt would belong to?

I think the mafia 1 case is stronger than the mafia 2 case. But yes, I do recognise my reasons for seeing him as possibly bad are mutually exclusive, but I could see either being true.

You don't think Cobalt going after Long Con on Day 0 is a bit... odd?

Keep in mind that for all his macho posturing with Long Con Day 1, Cobalt in fact voted for S~V~S when it came down between them.

Long Con
6
Metalmarsh89 (2), Epignosis (8), Turnip Head (16), nijuukyugou (18), Gumshoe (21), Hedgeowl (22) 25%
MetalMarsh89

SVS
7
MovingPictures07 (9), DFaraday (10), S~V~S (13), Cobalt (14), sig (19), Long Con (23), Golden (24) 29%

Spoiler: show

In fact sloonei, I just looked at our rainbows, and they are almost polar opposite right now. You are suspecting a completely different set of people to me.

Some other things I don't like.

I don't like that epi has minimised the fact that he refuted that his 2.0 is quieter than his 1.0.

He said this:

That said, I don't care how many times you refute it Epig, you've been posting very differently than your first day style.

How many times have I refuted it?

It's technically true that he has never said "Thats not true" but he has implied it, eg:

and epi's has been very quiet compared to earlier in the thread when he had a different role (if i recall correctly?) which is also making me wary

Very quiet.

Very quiet.

I found it humorous that such talk was coming from someone who, at the time, had nineteen posts.

[Scotty]

I thought you had previously stated that you were suspicious of Cobalt because of his interactions with Long Con, who would be a member of Mafia 2. Which team do you think it's more likely Cobalt would belong to?

I think the mafia 1 case is stronger than the mafia 2 case. But yes, I do recognise my reasons for seeing him as possibly bad are mutually exclusive, but I could see either being true.

You don't think Cobalt going after Long Con on Day 0 is a bit... odd?

Keep in mind that for all his macho posturing with Long Con Day 1, Cobalt in fact voted for S~V~S when it came down between them.

Long Con
6
Metalmarsh89 (2), Epignosis (8), Turnip Head (16), nijuukyugou (18), Gumshoe (21), Hedgeowl (22) 25%
MetalMarsh89

SVS
7
MovingPictures07 (9), DFaraday (10), S~V~S (13), Cobalt (14), sig (19), Long Con (23), Golden (24) 29%

Spoiler: show

In fact sloonei, I just looked at our rainbows, and they are almost polar opposite right now. You are suspecting a completely different set of people to me.

Some other things I don't like.

I don't like that epi has minimised the fact that he refuted that his 2.0 is quieter than his 1.0.

He said this:

That said, I don't care how many times you refute it Epig, you've been posting very differently than your first day style.

How many times have I refuted it?

It's technically true that he has never said "Thats not true" but he has implied it, eg:

and epi's has been very quiet compared to earlier in the thread when he had a different role (if i recall correctly?) which is also making me wary

Very quiet.

Very quiet.

I found it humorous that such talk was coming from someone who, at the time, had nineteen posts.

My plane is taxiing on the ru way right now but I have this say, Epi, I did not even notice that Cobalt didn't vote for LC. We've all kinda put Cobalt on the back burner for the past few days because he fell off the face of the earth, but I'm going to look at him again. I've voted for him two days in a row, and so I thought his game was getting so messy that I wante to rule him out.

But in a tie-situation where sig made sure SVS had majority, I didn't even think that Cobalt, who just said he had a 75 % "gut feeling" and 25% salt from previous games on LC, could sneak it back onto SVS, went unnoticed. Come on, that's pretty glaring.

Aight, I'm flying for the next 5 hours.peace

[Sloonei]

As promised, here come the rest of my ISOs

Nutella

Spoiler: show

Epi, I disagree with your criticisms. True, "interesting" is kind of a vacuous term but I and others use it all the time. And I also say things like "I don't know what to think about [whatever interaction has been going on in the thread]" because I feel like such interactions merit acknowledgment/I feel like I have to comment on them regardless of my alignment.

Nutty's first game-related post. I don't have any issue with this, it's a solid place to start. Not an extremely strong post, but it's early so that's not even a problem. She responds to case had Epi was making at the time in the thread contrasting reasons. However, this post is surrounded by a bunch of light chatter and comments about gameplay things (she doesn't like rainbow lists, oops), and I can't help but see it as a little fluffy. Not good.

Spoiler: show

I don't get the Hedgeowl suspicion at all. She posted while catching up and gave her input on a couple main discussions. None of her posts look particularly bad to me, just kind of average minimal-but-sufficient participation. I guess I understood LC's point (though it was regarding SVS) about commenting on issues rather than players, but Hedgie gave her views on LC/Epi/SVS so that doesn't really apply. I don't know, she could be hiding behind that type of participation (I haven't played many games with her but isn't it kind of her norm?) but I just don't really see the reasons for suspecting her, they seem contrived.

I could see SVS as bad. I mean, SVS is always bad

The first real stance she takes on anyone in the game, and it's a little all over the place. "I don't get the Hedgeowl suspicion... [doesn't] look particularly bad to me... minimal-but-sufficient(???)...she could be hiding behind that... I just don't really see the reasons for suspecting her." To be fair, the "reasons for suspecting her" Nutella is referencing here is the case Turnip Head brought up early on, and not the reasons she just highlighted herself, but I still find it odd that she would say all those things and then end her assessment by sayingg she "doesn't see the reasons". Also, "minimal-but-sufficient" seems like she's simultaneously acknowledging and shrugging off her own reasons for being suspicious, which is an odd thing to do.
She also sneaks a (lighthearted) scum read on SVS in at the end of this post.

Spoiler: show

...I just stated some.
For the most part though it is too early for me to form reads unless something crazy happens. As for LC and Epi, idk I think they're their usual zany selves, could be any alignment.

I once again do not like it when players excuse themselves from participation like this. "It's too early for me to form reads", right after giving her first couple of reads. I quite liked the Hedgeowl read and would have liked to see more of the same, but instead Nutella backs down and doesn't offer anything else. (That said, I know Day 1 can be a big hazy mess. I don't mean to be a jerk by insisting everyone should have full reads on every player, but I have to look at every post as if it could have been made by a baddie)

Spoiler: show

Canuck!!

@Sloonei: Nah I don't really see any particular reason to really suspect SVS right now, just that I'm always wary of her as she has a notorious record and I don't want to be subject to potential deceit. But yeah no I don't agree with Epi's comments on her, I think so far her posts have been reasonable. I just don't want to assume anything either way.

linki @ Scotty I don't really think there are vanilla roles in this game? I could be wrong of course but I'm guessing everyone has an ability of some sort. But it's possible Dragon's role wasn't a particularly exciting one. I don't want to read too much into his decision though.

I don't like this post, specifically the point about SVS. I could see this as scum just locking in on a target they chose in the pre-game and not letting go for any reason. The "I'm always wary of person X" thing is a very easy tactic for scum to use early on in any game. Or, skeptical townies.

Spoiler: show

I agree with MP and Golden re: SVS. I could totally see her sneakily hiding behind those emotional appeals. I'd feel bad if she was totally genuine about it, but honestly SVS has done this many many times and she is devious enough to use it to her advantage.

Gonna go ahead and vote for her, no harm doing it now since votes are apparently changeable (which is interesting indeed) but I don't know that I'm likely to change it anyway. Still concerned that these are all still fairly weak Day 1 suspicions, but I really would not be surprised if SVS flips bad.

This post/vote just makes that previously stated SVS suspicion look even more contrived, imo. In the last post I highlighted, she had no reason to be suspicious of SVS but she had established her as a suspect anyway. And then, as soon as a real case exists, she piggybacks onto it and drops a vote. Nutella's Day 1 behavior is not looking too good right now.

Spoiler: show

Wow now I might reconsider. I kinda feel bad for SVS since her stuff with Epi got blown out of proportion, and though I don't want to discount the possibility that she is a caught baddie panicking, that's not really what it seems like coming from her, and most of all the self vote really throws me off. That doesn't seem like something SVS would do as a baddie, she wouldn't go down that easily. So I think it's more likely she's just a lone civ who's unfortunately been a bit turned off from the game.

I think I will switch my vote to either Cobalt or LC, (a) to possibly save SVS and (b) because I am coming around to suspect both of them a bit more than I thought I would. LC just doesn't seem like himself, and could be erring on the side of caution if he is bad. Cobalt, well I don't know him at all but he's starting to give me an odd vibe and I really don't like his SVS vote at all one bit.


linki: Sig/Sloonei, different games/hosts have different procedures for ties. I wouldn't assume it would be a no lynch, I think it is more common to have a method of tiebreaking.

I changed my vote to Cobalt. Sig, I encourage you to do the same if tiebreaking was your only motivation for your vote (though that's pretty lame if it is)

Now she looks slightly better. Though it's possible for this to be seen as scum distancing themselves from a potential townie lynch. But it's at least nice to see Nutella didn't assume full tunnel vision against SVS on Day 1.

Spoiler: show

Huh, wasn't expecting an indie result. That's kinda too bad, as it probably was indeed a cool role, but on the other hand that means it may have had nefarious abilities/win conditions. So a somewhat neutral RIP to SVS the role and a sorry-to-see-you-go to SVS the player.

What result were you expecting, Nutella? Why?

Spoiler: show

I'm getting a weird vibe from LC and I can't really put my finger on it. It's like he doesn't seem LCish to me. But maybe that's because I haven't really played with him in a while (not counting Pilate which was decidedly not his usual style) and I may be projecting misremembered conceptions of his style, or maybe it's because he's been busy IRL, idk there's just been something nagging at the back of my head about all his posts so far that just feels not quite right. Obviously he's particularly on the defensive right now so maybe I am reading too much into how he's acting under pressure.

Nice sandwich truck! Needs some avocado though.


@Scotty what evidence do you see that there could be two kills? We don't seem to know anything about the roles or the baddie teams really, unless I'm missing something... Typically when there are two teams they kill on alternate nights (I guess you're new to the site and might not have realized that). Though it certainly could be the case that two or more roles/teams kill on the same night. There could be a civ ninja or an indie SK.


Btw I am voting to read the book.

Another case where Nutella states a suspicion and then immediately dives into expressing doubts about it. I do not like this. Can anyone who's played with Nutella before comment on it and let me know if it's a regular part of her early gameplay?

Spoiler: show

SINGER:
Life can be bright in civilian life
If you can fight with civilians right
Life is all right in civilian life
If you've got nothing to hide
Here you are free and you have pride
Long as you protect civvies on your side
Free to go after any baddie you choose
Free to make sure all of them lose

Everywhere grime in the mafia
Organized crime in the mafia (duh)
Terrible time in the mafia
Don’t forget Cobalt’s in the mafia
I think I'll go back to the thread
Build up cases ‘til the mafia’s dead
All the civs will give big cheers
When they’re alive at endgame to hear.

Epignosis has been killed. It is now day. You have 48 hours to lynch someone.

ANITA
Life can be bright in America

BOYS
If you can fight in America

GIRLS
Life is all right in America

Looks like Epi was West Side Story. That sucks.

...what no
I'm fairly convinced that the song lyrics are written by a "messenger" role, someone who sends some thoughts in the form of a song to Dom to get published anonymously. Like it's obviously written by a player and not Dom because it states the belief that Cobalt is mafia. And this person would presumably have no way of knowing Epi's role? Also roles are almost never revealed for NKs. To me a messenger role is the only interpretation of the lyrics in the night post that makes sense.


Anyway, RIP Epi and WB Epi 2.0, sorry to see you go MP.

(I know it's fairly common practice now but I always find it a little weird when players replace back in after being NKed. Because it basically confirms that Epi was a lone civvie with no BTSC because the host probably wouldn't let him back in if he had info beyond his previous role -- but since he was NKed he still has information about a role that's dead that the rest of us don't have. Idk it just makes me feel a little uncomfortable.)

My thoughts on Epi getting NKed: Usually when a nightkill target during the first couple nights of the game is someone who has been strongly pushing suspicion against someone else, I tend to think it is the baddies' attempt to frame the suspected party. (Can get complicated and WIFOMy though, like if the suspected party really is on the offending team and thinks "nobody will think I actually targeted the person who pushed for my lynch, they'll think it was a frameup" -- that's possible, and maybe this frameup would be too easy) but I'm inclined to think it could be an attempt to frame LC. Which just makes me all the more suspicious of Cobalt for today.

another thought on the messenger role: sometimes these roles are given bits of info (sometimes not all true info), so it's possible they heard a little birdie say Cobalt was bad. seems less likely they would get info before their night 1 post though, so I'm inclined to think it's just someone with a strong suspicion of Cobalt.

I like these posts and get some strong townie vibes from them. Or at least, scum hunting vibes, which doesn't necessarily imply towniness in this game. Nonetheless, I've got no issue with these posts and like the lines of thought Nutella is working with here. She was the first person, from what I remember, to suggest that the song lyrics are written by a player and not Dom. And then she'd become the primary suspect of the lyricist for the next couple nights.

Spoiler: show

Canuck, want to elaborate on why you're not interested in lynching Cobalt?
Tbf I have gotten the feeling that he's been hinting at being unlynchable or his lynch will have some special effect, so I'm a bit wary.
Also, I like MM's theory about LC and Tiny (TB is an awful acronym lol). Their posts about each other do look very potentially teammatey. The only thing that gives me pause is all the vouching for Tiny's "I'm just a civvie again" statement being a continuing pattern.

Changes her mind about Cobalt and LC a little bit, which I think I like. This change of mind seems to be based on real circumstantial evidence in the thread and I could see it being a genuine response from a player who's genuinely trying to catch bad guys. However, I don't like how easily she believed Cobalt's claim.

Spoiler: show

I'm not sure I see much reason to suspect BR. She generally starts out pretty quiet, and she was busy at some point, though I do hope to see her post more going forward. As of now she hasn't really posted anything that looks suspicious to me (but maybe that's because she's hiding behind the low posting style and avoiding saying much content)

Anyway, I'm certainly voting for Cobalt today. I don't really believe his claims, and regardless, whatever happens we will certainly learn something.

But now she doesn't really believe his claim, even though that last post, and some others, suggested that she did believe him at some point. Interesting.
Also states a "not bad" read on Black Rock, and once again expresses doubt about her own read.

Spoiler: show

Not sure. Depending on how today turns out I might still want to look at LC, and possibly Tiny. I'm also interested in the suspicion on Sig and am keeping an eye on him. I am looking forward to hearing more from BR, and others who have seemed particularly blendy like Bass and DF.

A lot of vague, undefinitive stances on a bunch of popular suspects. Covering all her bases, or just skeptical?

Spoiler: show

Not sure. Depending on how today turns out I might still want to look at LC, and possibly Tiny. I'm also interested in the suspicion on Sig and am keeping an eye on him. I am looking forward to hearing more from BR, and others who have seemed particularly blendy like Bass and DF.

what do you think about Neverwhere's posts?

Somewhat neutral. Her earlier posts give me a civvie-leaning vibe, but like LC said it's odd how she jumped on BR's clearly-not-a-slip-up, and based on what she said about Cobalt in a couple posts I would maybe look her way for a possible teammate if he turns out to be bad.

And then an even more vague read on Neverwhere. At this point my biggest point against Nutella, by far, is the unwillingness she shows in expressing any strong reads. Every time she offers a read on somebody it's very light and full of self-doubt. I see this as a typical scum behavior, like she's trying to leave all the doors open to possibly hop on any bandwagon that starts up and not look too bad doing so.

Spoiler: show

Oh and Sloonei since you asked I think I am getting a civvie read from you for now.

There's a clear stance on a player! I've been getting that a lot this game.

Spoiler: show

Glad you survived Golden, I think you're a civ.
Looks like he was probably protected, not rezzed, based on how Dom posted it -- it seemed to be a mistake that should have been in the original night post, and a resurrector wouldn't have known Golden was targeted, whereas if someone was protecting him the kill just wouldn't happen.

Welcome FZ Hammer and G-Diddy.

And it looks like the Singer thinks I'm bad and had something to do with LC surviving? Both incorrect.


Golden, nice catch re: Into the Woods. Hard to be sure what triggered the reveal but I'm going to keep checking the front page in case reveals become regular.


I'm willing to lay off the Cobalt/LC confusion because I really don't know what to think and it seems worthwhile to consider other suspects. I'm somewhat ambivalent about BR, and she seemed confident that Bass is bad so I'm inclined to examine him more. Sig is also on my list for sure.


Linki golden beat me to the point about protection

This post looks stronger than her previous ones, and her reads seem to be taking shape. This would make sense from a townie perspective, if she was genuinely just struggling to formulate any strong opinions about players early on but is getting stronger reads as the game progresses. That's generally how things work.

Spoiler: show

The two people that really caught my eye on day 1 were Nutella and Sig. They both seem like they're right in the middle of stuff, but are saying nothing. They feel like they are totally blending in and making others do the work for them. Anyone else noticed that?

I haven't been trying to blend in, but I will admit I do "make others do the work" to some extent because I'm not really the type to form big cases on my own, it's just not my style and I'm kinda too lazy/busy to put a lot of time into it. So I read the thread, assess others' suspicions and give my opinions on those, and give my opinions on any other players I've found fishy for whatever reason while reading. And often I don't really know what to think and my views flip and flop around, because in the end I don't have much of a clue who is bad. But I've tried to be as helpful as possible, keeping up with the thread and posting whenever I can, giving my input.
My strongest conviction right now is that Bass is bad. I really really think he is. He's my strongest suspicion, followed by LC at this point and Sig.

This post does not strike me as a particularly strong defense. She basically just confirms what FZ says and then reiterates her previously-stated reads. Not too rousing.

Spoiler: show

Changed my vote to sig. He's really looking bad. (...And practically admitted it in that green text just now... lol)

I don't get why Bass voted himself though. Want to hear more from him tomorrow.

Very late vote for sig when he was pretty much already gone, after she had previously voted for Bass earlier that day.

Spoiler: show

^wait, what? I just see that he died... and is on the poll, but that's probably an error unless Dom posts again that he's alive?
but as for now, RIP Sloonei. That's a loss for the thread, he's been really helpful.

Singer, whoever you are, you're very wrong about me.

This post gives me a really bad feeling about Nutella. It's almost as if she was expecting me to be die and didn't really even read Dom's post, just assumed I was dead and was ready to move on. Why would she assume that? Perhaps she was responsible for my attempted slaying.

Spoiler: show

I'm also becoming curious about these song lyrics and Nutella. Anyone want to weigh in on that? Could it be that we have some sort of cop/ID role who's able to communicate to us in song, and they've caught a bad guy in Nutella? Or something less good than that? I don't know, what sort of precedent is there on this site for roles like this one?

It's quite likely they're just spouting their misguided opinions. Another possibility that I've seen in other games is that this type of role receives some false info mixed in with true info and don't know which is which.

I wouldn't have a problem with this if she had left it at "they're just spouting their misguided opinions", but when she attempts to discredit the lyrics by suggesting the person is being fed "false information" it seems like she's getting a bit too desperate to sweep the problem under the rug.

There are parts of Nutella's post history where I feel like I can almost see some clear townie gameplay poking through, but on the whole there are a few too many suspicious points for me to ignore. She's not my strongest suspect at the moment, but she's certainly up there.

Questions for Nutella: You've expressed suspicion of Bass numerous times going back a few days, but have not really pushed too hard for his lynch at any point. Do you still feel suspicious about him? Why? Who would your next suspect be?

[nijuukyugou]

Epig is a mystery. I don't think anyone can deny he's posting less than he did on day 1. He wanted LC out, but what I want to check later is, did he continue going after him strongly when he came back. If it was as strong, I think he can't be from his team, though it's possible, but if he subtly backed off without making it too obvious, it's possible. I think I recall he voted for G-man both days, and when I asked him what he would do, he said he doesn't want a tie. That made me feel better about him, because I think I know what his role was before. But the point is he didn't vote for LC but G-man. As for the other team, his exchange with G-man seems genuine, so I doubt he's on that team. Maybe he's an independent who doesn't care as much who wins and is laying low to not get NK again.

^^ This. I felt good about Epi 1.0 (which I suppose I should never feel), but have been feeling less so with 2.0, especially since he stopped gunning for LC so hard and didn't even vote him. Although he's never quite quiet, he's certainly quieter in his second incarnation, quieter than I'm used to (but then again, I'm also used to his hosting, so).

[nijuukyugou]

Yay for finally having wireless at my new place! Now I'll get no unpacking done

[Epignosis]

It should be clear that I support a Long Con or Cobalt lynch too, but I have only one vote.

[nijuukyugou]

Any and all thoughts are welcome at any time, thank you niju. What are your thoughts on Cobalt surviving the lynch and his supposed role?

I agree with this:

Cobalt's supposed role is really the only reason I have him as a town read, but that could be completely off base. I still don't really have a good feel for the flavor of roles here, so I would have to rely on the thoughts and analysis of some of the community's regular players on that issue. In my experience, a role that can alter a lynch result like that is much more likely to be to be town than scum.

In games here, my view is that you should generally not assume affiliation based on power. There are some exceptions - a mafia doctor would be odd and I can't recall seeing one, for instance. But in my experience baddie teams commonly have lynch switches as a defensive power. I've actually caught a baddie team by using this power against them once when I knew I was safe from a lynch and bluffed one of them into switching the lynch to me.

His survival does not make him look more civ to me because I've seen survival/switch roles in all affiliations. Dunno about his role itself - I'm used to being able to check a role powers list and match it up, but obviously that's not possible this game.

[nijuukyugou]

It should be clear that I support a Long Con or Cobalt lynch too, but I have only one vote.

Indeed, sir - I remember this post of yours. However, the point is you chose to vote G-Man in the end.

[Epignosis]

It should be clear that I support a Long Con or Cobalt lynch too, but I have only one vote.

Indeed, sir - I remember this post of yours. However, the point is you chose to vote G-Man in the end.

And what does that indicate to you?

[nijuukyugou]

It should be clear that I support a Long Con or Cobalt lynch too, but I have only one vote.

Indeed, sir - I remember this post of yours. However, the point is you chose to vote G-Man in the end.

And what does that indicate to you?

That you were less willing to vote LC the second time around when he was actually up for a lynch (after your first incarnation had died), which was odd, given how hard you went after him Day 1. Could be indicative of a team/alignment change.

[DFaraday]

I think I'm leaning slightly bad on FS. She pretty much bandwagoned late on the LC lynch, which makes me wonder if it was just a blending tactic.

I meant the Sig lynch, not LC. To me it looked like hiding in a safe landslide, but the fact that she also voted for G-Man and Bass on the occasions when LC was up for lynching makes me think she's more likely to be Mafia 2.

As for Cobalt, the biggest thing for me is how hard he went after LC, only to switch his vote to SVS for a rather weak reason. The other times he voted for LC, LC didn't really seem to be in much danger of lynching at all, since on Day 2 Cobalt basically insisted that everyone vote for himself and Day 3 was a Sig landslide. I don't think Day 4 had much to do with Cobalt at all.

Looking over the votes, it seems that MM went hard after LC all game, but voted Sig on Day 3. However, since his vote came at a time when a Sig lynched was all but inevitable, I wonder if MM is Mafia 1, voting a doomed teammate for cred, but otherwise going after someone who turned out not to be on his team, including when another teammate was on the chopping block on Day 4.

That's 3 theories, which is more than I usually contribute, so I'm done for now. I'll get to my thoughts on Hedge and Ninja later.

[Epignosis]

It should be clear that I support a Long Con or Cobalt lynch too, but I have only one vote.

Indeed, sir - I remember this post of yours. However, the point is you chose to vote G-Man in the end.

And what does that indicate to you?

That you were less willing to vote LC the second time around when he was actually up for a lynch (after your first incarnation had died), which was odd, given how hard you went after him Day 1. Could be indicative of a team/alignment change.

Could be.

[Sloonei]

Scotty
I've been feeling good about Scotty from the very beginning of the game without ever really looking too closely at his posts. So I'm going into this with a town read on him, as my rainbow suggests, but keeping an open mind about the possibility of him being bad.

Spoiler: show

Just got back from work and seeing Gentlemen's Guide. Man what a blah show that was. I've seen it twice now & wouldn't recommend it, even if it won best Musical.

Anyway, I want to focus on these PMs.

So it appears we have only a few PMs between us, and that multiple of us got ones that were the same or at least very similar.

It is a shame we can't quote them but I think we can verify if they are the same. Mine contained 102 words, 13 full stops, 7 commas. It did not conclude with a full stop or with a natural sentence end. Does this align with others who had something about stopping time and having a second day?

Interesting. So I'm gonna conform to Dom's wishes and will only conjecture with some bits of my PM even though I think I extracted 1-2 complete sentences with mine over the past day.

I'll try and do more conjecturing on reads of people tomorrow (if I have time before work), but for now I would invite everyone that hasn't responded with their keywords from their PMs do so . It would be very helpful to see if we can determine the myriad of roles we're dealing with in this game. Don't you think?

In unscrambling my sentence, it led me with a few keywords such as revival, overrated, Memory, and role check. It has 84 words, 5 full stops, 3 commas, 1 period.

Based on the facts that
1) Memory is the main song from Cats, and
2) Cats is about to be revived again (god help us) and
3) It's universally overrated

I'm thinking my PM is pertaining to Cats. And on top of that, I'm leaning this role having the ability to role check. My sentence also had the words "single" and "time" strewn in. Which adds up for me to believe this role can role check only once.

Scotty has put a lot of focus, especially early, on solving the cryptic PMs we've been getting from Dom. I do not mind this, but I would be wary of players coasting by on this sort of analysis rather than actively engaging in catching bad guys. However, I don't think Scotty is guilty of this, so I like this.

Spoiler: show

Not Faraday, sorry, meant Gumshoe. I'm bloody tired.

I'm gonna put out there before I go to bed that I don't have any great reads on many (mostly because I don't really know anyone here), but I think there is something between Cobalt and Gumshoe. I'm willing to gander, with Cobalt's veiled defense of Gumshoe, that one or both are bad. Cobalt did have some major pushes for a second early Day 1, and I feel like Gumshoe may be trying too hard to be res. That's the best I got before Day 2 rolls around. I'm working noon to midnight tomorrow- I'll literally have time enough to take a piss and vote, so my tentative vote right now is for one of them. I'll check again on my way to work if I sway my vote.

This is Scotty's first offering any reads on particular players, after a bunch of posts about solving the PMs. He's the only person that I remember expressing any support of my early suggestion that there was something going on between Cobalt and Gumshoe. I don't object to this read.

Spoiler: show

I'm gonna pop in here a sec. I voted Conalt right now because I don't have time to read any more while at work today for the next 10 hours.

I feel a scummy vibe from TinyBubbles. I don't buy the "overwhelmed" post coming almost at the end of day 1. My placeholder vote is still on Cobalt but I'm wary of Bubbles, regardless of "how civ" they looked last game

Puts a vote on Cobalt and expresses suspicion of TinyBubbles, but not for the super easy reason everyone else was going for. This also reads as genuine to me. Others might have a different interpretation.

Spoiler: show

While I think it's a positive scenario that Hammerstein is gone, mafia is still going strong in the wings. And I think I just neglected to realize it before, but aren't 2 people most likely dying tonight?

That makes me nervous, and puts the civs at a HUGE disadvantage the longer we don't pinpoint mafia.

Couple things I noticed after skimming the past 6 pages:
-Epi reads to me as civ, whereas I originally saw him as slightly mafia/indep. He came off to me early on as the wannabe big man on campus, lots of needling, not backing down, sorta pushy and bullying. But he has spunk. He still hasn't backed down from his day 0 reads. He's still pretty sure of his reads and I'm leaning that he is worst case scenario independent, probably civ.
-LC I think has legit reasons to jump in last minute. Busy people be busy sometimes. I'm one of those people. That still doesn't vindicate him from suspicion. Although I was never wholly suspicious of him as much as I am with...
-Cobalt. Still feeling that holier-than-thou air of confidence is a red flag with his "I have a surprise" talk, on top of his ganging on LC. I feel like he's entirely too comfortable after almost dying. I'm REALLY curious as to finding out just what mafia role Cobalt could have. Could LC and Cobalt both be civ? hahaha not likely. But wouldn't it be hilarious if both are on different mafia teams?
-Still got that scummy vibe from TinyBubbles. Got a big ole eye on her (him?)

Anyway, what timmer said about cobalt revenge voting makes some sense, im gonna go ahead and trust his instincts, and vote for cobalt now. Sory cobalt if you are innocent. I may just be setting myself up for an early lynching myself by doing this, but dont want to miss the vote like in last games (wont be home 10 hrs from now) dont want to vote long con because of what i said before, svs is still a mystery but he hasnt voted which makes mphim slightly less suspicious than cobalt at the moment. I actually feel like svs is mafia, but dont have anything concrete to point to

So from your initial posts, saying you generally preferred to bandwagon on Day 1 (which that by itself is either newby and/or suspicious), to being the 4th person to vote today (for Cobalt), apologizing for backtracking with the excuse that you weren't gonna be around later on, then in the same post saying you suspected that SVS was mafia, and NOT VOTING FOR HER.

While I'm on the topic, someone else that pinged me in the last 6 pages was Sig.

I don't like how Cobalt switched his vote, he went after LC like crazy yet switches that seems off. I don't think SVS is mafia, but if she is voting for herself is it a tactic to not get lynched or a genuine vote? I really would rather not lynch SVS it is a gut feeling...

OK, questioning Cobalt's merits, doesn't want to mislynch SVS.

I'm here but I'm unsure to vote for I will wait a few minutes, from my brief experience with CObalt he always seems like mafia to me

Uh oh, getting down to the wire. Leaning Cobalt...

We can't absolutely can't have a no lynch today for that reason along with others I will be voting for SVS
MAFIA IS MOST LIKELY TO TIE THE VOTE I'm very suspicious nijuukyugou right know for doing this

Suddenly, you can't have a tie, and so you lean...SVS? Because you're thinking SVS's self-vote is fishy...And then cast doubt on nijuu at the same time.

I have 10 minuets I will reread Cobalts and SVS posts

@Sloonie considering Dom said he has a means of deciding I'm not as worried know I just didn't want a no lynch

Now the no-lynch doesn't matter. So you'll nonchalantly "reread" their posts to see if you want to change your mind, now that you're already currently voting for SVS and not Cobalt.

Which you stick with. Cool, sticking to your guns.
Except,
you changed your vote from Cobalt to SVS to "break the tie", and when you learned that that didn't mean a no-lynch, you just hid behind the barn. Drawing attention away from Cobalt.

And immediately after SVS was lynched:

Quick question do the independents count as civilians against mafia or no? Some games I've played they do others they don't

Weird thing to comment about right after a lynching. What bearing does the answer to your question have on you if you are civ? We don't know what roles independents have, but i can assure you that they are not civilians. They are independent from both mafia and civilians.

I'm on to you, my friend.

This was the post where I really started to get strong townie vibes from Scotty. It's an excellent post and he gets full credit for being the first one to jump on sig. I like all the points he makes and not just the ones about sig. He seems to be level-headed and thoughtful in his approach. This post is just dripping with town.

Then he goes into more PM analysis, which continues to be fine as long as he's offering player analysis to go along with it.

Spoiler: show

As I said Cobalt always seems like mafia to me and the games I've played with him he never is so I was willing to give him the benefit of doubt.

On websites I play on a tie vote equals a no lynch so a wasted first day, with this logic it makes sense that I would view nijuu suspicious as she was bringing it closer to a tied vote. I found the self lynch vote suspicious and I gave my reasoning behind it.

Also I never voted for Cobalt I didn't switch my vote SVS was my first and only vote, so did you misunderstand or are you trying to throw suspicion on me your either lying or have your facts wrong.

This question has a lot of bearing if the independent count as civilians then the mafia is one up, if this was the case I would be more suspicious of Cobalt for his vote switching. As well as the fact that it is good to know our numbers since I've played games were the independents do count as town and some where they do not, I don't see how this is suspicious. Also if I was mafia why would I ask this question on the thread and not in mafia chat?

Your falsehood about my voting as well as what your "pings" are is very strange, what do you Scotty think about the SVS lynch? WHat do you think of CObalt switching votes? How did I draw attention away from CObalt?

Keep in mind my predilections of you as mafia as I was reading on the train after work were mostly in part to my assumption that Cobalt is probably bad. You didn't physically vote for Cobalt, yes, but your posts were heavily leaning that way [to me]. And when it came down to it, when people were starting to vote for the top 3, you chalked it up to "ehhhh, cobalt always appears mafia, he probably isn't this game." Thus indirectly casting suspicion elsewhere.

What do I think about the SVS lynch?
I think it wasn't bad, it wasn't good. Independents have their own win conditions, so it was probably good for the other independents, if my theory of that PM puzzle with the 3/4 lyricists was any indication.

Cobalt switching votes?
Cobalt has seemed fishy for me before that anyway, so I think he should and will get flak for switching votes like that.

Drawing attention away from Cobalt?
You questioned him multiple times on his comings and goings, including the vote switch. He stuck with voting for SVS, which if I were suspicious of a person changing votes, I would definitely wonder why that person was voting the other person. Cobalt said he was going to vote SVS because LC didn't have any traction. You know, saving himself, getting the best chance to vote someone out other than himself. A fishy bandwagon vote. So logically, you ended up looking past that and voting SVS as well. Yes, you stated that SVS voting herself seemed like a mafia-like move, but the Cobalt switch and you not changing your vote to Cobalt or even really talking about it again in the 10 minutes before the polls closed subtly tells me you might be covering Co.

Honestly, sig, I was putting my feelers out because of my impulse read on Cobalt. If Cobalt does turn out to be civ, I will drop all of this suspicion I've thrown on you and apologize, but I'm still leaning heavy mafia on him.

I mean do you think he is mafia at this point?

But then in this post he sort of backs off his own sig case a little bit, and makes it conditional with Cobalt also being scum. This has me a little worried, but not terribly. Not yet, at least.

Spoiler: show

We could use an appearance from Tiny. His(her?) silence is pretty suspicious.

I'm actually hoping TIny can come in and bandwagon on sig, like she(he?) says she(he?) is wont to do.

A couple posts prodding TinyBubbles to post more, which looks a lot better than hopping on her bandwagon.

Spoiler: show

So before I cast a vote on who I currently suspect, I want to hear from all the crew that are apparently still in this game but are currently backstage sleeping together on the Equity cot.
@BirdwithTeeth11
@Bullzeye
@Devin
@Canucklehead
@Dream
@fingersplints
@MetalMarsh89 (I KNOW you're here, I see you voting on shit)
@TGG

And welcome to the game, Epi 2.0. Wonder if your strategy is going to be any different.

I guess @Dom the fact that Epi was allowed back in means his first role didn't have any special abilities that would give him more knowledge in the game? Because that would be, you know, unfair.

I like that he's keeping an eye on/watching out for/calling attention to the quiet players. Not a super strong towntell, but a pretty decent one. I've not yet seen anything alarming in Scotty's posts, and quite a bit of good.
Because I want to get all my ISOs done before I leave for work today (won't be back until after the Night ends and I have zero reason to believe I'll get to see another Day in this game), I'm gonna cut this off here (I've read his whole post history, just not responding to all of it here). Scotty has not done anything to make me suspect him all game, but he's offered a lot of strong points and his overall demeanor gives me solid townie vibes. However, I've seen a few people state some concern about him and I want nothing more at this point in the game than to hear/see these reasons.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
timmer
I listed timmer as my one and only "strong town read" on my rainbow without doing an ISO. As I briefly explained last night, I feel like his posts have been the most clearly and positively town/civ of anyone in the game. I've got a strong sense of skepticism, open-mindedness, and honesty in all of his posts. But here's an ISO anyway.

Spoiler: show

I don't give a fuck, y'all can vote for me whenever you want, if you want. Just keep in mind that the most recent mafia game I played my day 3 scum reads list was 5/6 accurate and I got MVP. I don't know you guys as well as that crowd but I do have decent instincts.

So you were a great civ in the last game, and this means you... should be assumed to be a civ this time again? For realsies?

Oh, and regarding newbies... it's my understanding that these new faces are only new to this site and not mafia in general, right? As far as I'm concerned, if any of them end up on my shit list, they are getting votes. New to this site doesn't equal new.

Hops on Cobalt right away, pretty well-stated for a tiny early thing like this. I dig it.

Spoiler: show

This all got very interesting.

No it didn't. It's all Day 0 dicking around. Nothing has gotten interesting at all. "Interesting" is a stupid word. Stop using it Mafia.

I see MP07 is going full-swing with the Question-Hammer, good to see! Gets people talking.

According to LC, MP is getting people talking, and it's "good to see." Hold that in mind.

I'm not too pinged by this truce thing, and I don't know what to think about the shoving match between MP and Epig yet.

If you "don't know what to think" about something, why in hell bring it up? Does anybody care that you don't know what to think about something? Why not keep quiet until you do know what you think?

And why characterize my exchange with MP as a "shoving match?" That can't be genuine. In this same post, LC said MP was "swinging the question hammer," which is "good to see." Now he's not sure what to think about the Epi/MP "shoving match?"

This doesn't smell right to me.

I'm voting Long Con, except I can't because Hedgeowl hasn't voted 18 yet.

I'm liking this analysis of Long Con. Vocabulary can say a lot. As far as I'm concerned, up to this point, both Epig and MP have put out some jokes, some fluff, some banter, but underneath it all you can see clearly that they are feeling out their opponents, they are trying to read what's not obvious to read. Long Con is similarly commenting, but from a more aloof position, not quite engaged. I'm too early in my read to say that this makes him worth a vote, but Epig's on point regarding his early output. Moving on.... to another Hoegaarden.

Really keen observational skills on display here, it seems. Nothing about this post seems labored and he gets some surprisingly strong analysis out of some early preliminary behavior from a few of the thread's more prominent personalities. Really dig this post, to say nothing of the actual content of his reads.
To say something of the content, he's on top of LC right away. This could be indicative of bussing, but as I've not got any scummy vibes from timmer at all, I'm not really leaning that way. It's something I'll keep in mind though.

Spoiler: show

So the game begins.

I mean, I don't want to just jump on a bandwagon but I've been pinged my what Epignosis has started here. As potentially weak as of a suspicion as it is (which, I mean, it's not even Day 1 so the littlest things really do matter) I can see exactly what Epignosis is saying. Long Con's post reads somewhat like he wants us to think he's contributing without actually contributing. Playing devil's advocate on myself, there is little to nothing to contribute day 0 but it's the feeling that he wants us to think that he contributing that feels fishy. I see why LC saying MP is stirring things up is a good thing and then belittling it as a shoving match is weird. I concur.

That being said, SVS dragged that suspicion a little bit further down the hole and went with LC. 1) The idea of "buddying up" has come up today and SVS came off like LC's knight in shining armor coming to rescue him from Epignosis. 2) Saying that Epignosis is trying to distract us. Distract us from what? Discussing Reading Rainbow? 3) I'm not afraid to be honest of my selfish ways, the main reason this stood out to me is because I saw my name. Dragging themselves and myself into the "interesting" topic comes off very weird to me. I'm battling with my ego as whether I find it weird because subconsciously I just don't like my name coming up or if it truly is weird. I'm leaning toward the latter. I mean, my use of interesting was talking about MP's previous game. Much different than LC's usage of the word. My name being included just seems like a tactic to link up an innocent name to your own. It's like "See, everyone is doing it."

Here's the thing. Each of the following players - Epig, SVS, Long Con, MP, Devin - have all, to this point, sounded exactly like they always sound. Epig likes to stir the shit. Long Con likes to post and discuss things and be helpful. MP likes to get chatty and also stir the shit. SVS likes to go after something when she smells baddie. Devin likes to post like he has been.

All of them have, to this point in my reread, acted like their normal selves, but it is never okay, imo, to just ignore what is going on because "this is what they do". Epig could certainly be bad, but he also can agitate a thread into revealing connections, great for use later. Each of them, in fact, are great at this game, and they may all be trying to minimize what is going on here but each of them is contending for positioning, here, despite it not being even Day 1. None of these players will back down, believe me.

But the key is to get past their M.O., their history, their mafia relationships, and look at what is being said. I think Epig saw something worth mentioning. I wonder at how SVS and nutella only mention part of it in retort. the game is begun, even if it hasn't at this point begun...

I love this post, and it's where I first started to feel good about timmer. He doesn't really take a stance on anyone here, but that's okay because he makes it clear that he's paying close attention to all the players he mentions and is not ruling out any possibilities (or leaving all his options open, if he's a bad guy). It does not read as waffling/uncertainty because he expresses his views very clearly and apparently full of confidence.

Spoiler: show

So I'm all caught up now.

I think Epig pulled up something notable in LC's posts for a Day 0. I think if he flips bad we've got some good ammunition to find his teamies. That said, it's not so great a case that it warrants all these early votes.

Cobalt's vote in particular seems to be, by his own words, a revenge vote for a previous game? I struggle to know how to read that, but it seems AWFULLY convenient.

I'm null on the MP/Devin thing, but maybe more trusting of Alex than Devin.

I think SVS is wrong in her views on LC/Epig, but I disagree with those seeing a baddie SVS.

I think the point about Hedge is decent, but there are a handful of others who have spent a large proportion of their time on mechanics and the host PMs, so highlighting only Hedge seems wrong.

DF is a good example of someone spending more time on non-suspicion stuff.

Golden seems on point.

I'm a bit pinged by gamer guy's statement of only getting invested in the game at day 2 or so. If I'm remembering right, Gamer Guy was Mordecai, correct? The Mordecai I saw in our baddie btsc was invested heavily in the game from minute 1, there was no sense of waiting to get things going. That said, it's hard to say what that makes gamer guy, since if he was invested as a baddie, maybe waiting until day 2 is more a civvie thing? Meh.

As of this moment, I'm not feeling inclined to vote for anyone in particular more than anyone else. There are just lots of little mini-cases hanging there.

I will be around closer to deadline after work tomorrow and will have time to catch back up from this point onwards. Unless one of the above cases evolves into something stronger, I will likely vote for someone who has spent the game talking about mechanics and ignoring the suspicions completely, as there are a few of those. Suspicions, that is. Not talking about them is a big ping.

More stuff I like. He expresses support of Epi's Day 1 case against Long Con but also urges caution and patience with regards to voting. His comment about Hedgeowl is similar, in that he agrees that there is merit to the early case on her, but that it's not fair to limit the suspicion just to her, as others (he points to DFaraday) are guilty of the same things Hedge is being accused of.
And I continue to not be worried about hiss reluctance to vote. It reads much more like a patient townie than a waffling scum.

Again in the interest of time I'm gonna cut this ISO short. I still feel very good about timmer, however I have to note that I have never played with him before and don't know anything about him as a player. Could somebody who's got more experience with him comment on his style, in this game and in the past? Does his style in this game strike anyone as something he could pull of as scum? Or is timmer really as town as I think he is right now?

[Cobalt]

It should be clear that I support a Long Con or Cobalt lynch too, but I have only one vote.

Indeed, sir - I remember this post of yours. However, the point is you chose to vote G-Man in the end.

And what does that indicate to you?

That you were less willing to vote LC the second time around when he was actually up for a lynch (after your first incarnation had died), which was odd, given how hard you went after him Day 1. Could be indicative of a team/alignment change.

Not only that, but a lot of his suspicion on me stemmed from him being aggravated that I wound up voting SVS on day one instead of Long Con. I explained afterward that I didn't realize how late people voted here and it didn't look like LC was going to get lynched so I switched my vote to someone else I found scummy, but that wasn't good enough for him. Why so angry that I didn't vote LC back then and then not vote LC when he had the chance later?

[Sloonei]

TinyBubbles
I have been saying for a while that I'm wary of anyone who hopped on the TinyBubbles bandwagon earlier because of her "I'm civ again!" comments. This has not been because I have a town read on Bubbles herself, but because I thought that particular bandwagon was very very easy for scum to hop onto. I've not had a strong read on Bubbles at any point in this game, but she has bounced back and forth between both sides of my rainbow at various stages.

Spoiler: show

Hey all, im alive :o still lurking for the most part because it's honestly kind of intimidating at the start of a mafia game, i hate the thought of wrongly accusing people and there usually is a bunch of new people i am not familiar with, so can't tell if they are being themselves or acting out a role. on the plus side i've finished exams so don't have that stealing my time more for mafia, potentially And i'm a good guy AGAIN for the third time in a row! Which really doesn't help me train my mafia hunting instincts, like they say it takes a thief to catch a thief. Anyway, for what it is worth sloonei and golden are playing a lot like they did in the economics game so far, so i (want?) to believe they are civ. Don't know about the others like long con. Curious about the pm Dom sent like many of you, i would love if we could somehow join together and figure out what they all mean without actually posting them.

This first lynch vote i'm gonna probably bandwagon on the most voted person, since i figure that is marginally better than voting a random. It's a cop out, i know. Don't shoot me.

Btw sorry to see you go DDL! And welcome canucklehead, your first post made me lol

Here is that now infamous post of hers. This reads as uber-TinyBubbles, based on my one prior game with her (Economics, as she references here). My worry about her, which I stated at the time, was that this post was too in-meta for her. She made a few posts similar to this one in tone during the Economics game. If this is her first time being scum, I think it is reasonable to assume that she would be trying to duplicate her previous town meta, and this post could read exactly like that.

Spoiler: show

Hi TinyBubbles.
Right now it appears the three most popular names for lynch targets are Long Con, S~V~S, and Cobalt. If you were to choose between those three, who would you pick and why?

At the risk of contradicting what i just said about bandwagoning, id probably go for either svs or cobalt, because they arent getting as much negative press as long con atm. This game has barely even begun, i find it interesting (to use your word heh) that long con already seems so scummy to some. There is just something off about that. im willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because of it.

Who would you vote for?

Openly contradicts herself to defend Long Con, which definitely lends some credibility to the "LC and Bubbles are teammates" theory. A first time scum would also probably be less willing to bus their teammates and would probably be inclined to defend them early in the game like this. Hm.

Spoiler: show

And i'm a good guy AGAIN for the third time in a row!

I wouldn't really question that if you hadn't mentioned it...

That's why I posted Nick. That came off as forced if anything has.

Its the truth. Suspect me if you wish though, i wouldnt blame ya. Though id be pissed to get voted off early in this game, cause its a cool theme.

Anyway, what timmer said about cobalt revenge voting makes some sense, im gonna go ahead and trust his instincts, and vote for cobalt now. Sory cobalt if you are innocent. I may just be setting myself up for an early lynching myself by doing this, but dont want to miss the vote like in last games (wont be home 10 hrs from now) dont want to vote long con because of what i said before, svs is still a mystery but he hasnt voted which makes mphim slightly less suspicious than cobalt at the moment. I actually feel like svs is mafia, but dont have anything concrete to point to

This post again makes me feel like she's a first time scum trying to stay within her meta. Her comment about "setting herself up for a lynch" seems like she's hyper-aware of her own play and the way she might be perceived by others, which I take to be indicative of first-time scum. She also states a suspicion on SVS but says she has nothing "concrete to point to" and then votes for Cobalt instead. If you thought SVS was mafia, why did you not vote for her, Bubbles?

Spoiler: show

Put my vote in for long con, because there are far too many votes on cobalt right now, i dont trust that thre's not a scummy reason to get him lynched (even if he is mafia). Could be a willing sacrifice, to call attention away from the others. And long can has been slightly suspicious from the start, though i dont know him fromprevious games so cant be sure its not just his usual style. He seemed an easy target last poll so i wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt. however now there is no point, most likely cobalt's going to get lynched.

And sorry for not posting much. some posts have seemed kind of hostile, made me reluctant to involve myself. I am still around though

I think i recall bass suspecting i'm scum? I dont know if that was just meant to provoke a reaction or if it's his real opinion. Either way it's fishy.. and yes, for the 1000th time im still civ and will be civ ALL GAME and if you think that it's scummy of me to reiterate that, you don't really know me at all or you're misdirecting.

On Day 2 she puts a meaningless vote on LC after Cobalt had collected all of the votes. Could be an effort to distance herself from her teammate, LC, while not actually putting him in any danger. And she also accuses her own accusers of "misdirecting", which seemed odd to me at the time, and still does. I called her out on it and this was her response:

Spoiler: show

Put my vote in for long con, because there are far too many votes on cobalt right now, i dont trust that thre's not a scummy reason to get him lynched (even if he is mafia). Could be a willing sacrifice, to call attention away from the others. And long can has been slightly suspicious from the start, though i dont know him fromprevious games so cant be sure its not just his usual style. He seemed an easy target last poll so i wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt. however now there is no point, most likely cobalt's going to get lynched.

And sorry for not posting much. some posts have seemed kind of hostile, made me reluctant to involve myself. I am still around though

I think i recall bass suspecting i'm scum? I dont know if that was just meant to provoke a reaction or if it's his real opinion. Either way it's fishy.. and yes, for the 1000th time im still civ and will be civ ALL GAME and if you think that it's scummy of me to reiterate that, you don't really know me at all or you're misdirecting.

Are you saying that people who are suspicious of you are purposefully misdirecting the thread by putting attention on you? Surely you do not think you should be above suspicion.
Of all the people who have accused you, who do you get the scummiest vibes from?

Not necessarily, but i wouldnt be surprised.if i was mafia id be wanting to call attention to a particular person and then pretend to have a debate about them with a baddie teammate,. Just to get people's stance on them. I think real civs dont form strong opinions about any one person unless there is a lot of evidence or its close to lynch time. Also dont get into tight knit conversations about that person unless the thread is already moving in that direction. I dunno maybe im wrong

And of course, not saying im above suspicion. But im not trying to shift attention on anyone in particular, and what have i said thats so suspicious? Other that saying im civvie? Honestly im more surprised other people dont claim it if they are. i just dont want to be lynched early, i would love to see how this game develops towards the end and i want to be a part of that.

Scummiest vibes.. probably bass. And from everyone else, im getting some scummy vibes from hedgeowl and black rock.
Neverwhere seems to be exactly the same as in previous games, but she was baddie in those games. Not sure about how i feel about her.
Also Epi 2.0 is not giving off the same vibes as original Epi, and i dont believe RL is the only reason. On my radar

This post reads like a lot of backtracking. She basically says that having a suspect is scummy, and that she's not trying to put attention on anyone in particular even though she had specifically called out Bass in both of these posts. And that's kind of the point of the game, but she says it's not what she's doing, which just reads as suspicious to me. Bubbles is probably a top suspect at this point.

Spoiler: show

put a vote on myself... cause it's probably gonna go that way anyway and honestly i am not really enjoying this game anymore. i'm civ though, you'll discover that as soon as i'm lynched.

I have not been able to shake the feeling that her self-vote was the result of a flustered first-time scum player who just wanted to throw in the towel after accumulating some early suspicion. Bubbles came under some fire (for similar reasons) in the Economics game but never changed her attitude or did anything like this. This is really the first example of her breaking meta, and it doesn't strike me as a particularly townish thing to do here.

Spoiler: show

Your second post and third post, saying you won't be good at catching mafia since you've never been mafia, also giving the excuse of being intimidated and not wanting to wrongly accuse and saying you would go with abandwagon. LC is the bandwagon suddenly you don't want to bandwagon anymore? You also voted against LC top bandwagon voted early and said you wouldn't be back and voted for Cobalt, at this point you thought SVS was mafia.

timmer changed my mind he said that cobalt revenge voted which made sense to me at the time. prior to his post i probably would've bandwagoned like i said. i was feel mostly neutral about everyone then, thats why i "suddenly" latched on to cobalt. it was marginally better than voting random.

Day 2 you switch back to LC because there are to many votes on Cobalt, even though day 1 you didn't think LC was scum and voted for Cobalt. Your also giving Cobalt the benefit of the doubt since he is an easy lynch target (who you thought was the top mafia day 1 and LC was the last suspicious of the three)

i didnt say i didnt think long con was scum, i said it was suspicious that so many people were accusing him. it was so early in the game at that point, his guilt couldnt have been proven beyond a doubt. he seemed like an obvious mafia target and i didnt want to contribute to it.

ALso let me call attention to this you said you had to vote early since you would be gone 10+ hours but only 3 hours later you come on and comment

i said i'd be gone 10+ hours FROM that point, not that i'd be gone for 10+ after making that post, i was still free when i made that comment. basically i thought i wouldnt be around by the time the vote ended, so wanted to give a heads up. no conspiracy behind it.

Said you had scummy vibes from Bass twice no reasoning behind these vibes.

thats true.. i'm sorry for not elaborating. i dont really have a concrete reason to give, and my opinion of him is not certain yet.

Then out of your 13 posts you make 4 in the final few hours, switch from lynching yourself to lynching me and asking people their opinion of me.

cause i was feeling better about being in the game and i want to save myself. i'm asking about you because the vote it likely gonna be between you and me.. who else would i ask about? it would make less sense to start discussing dfaraday or someone at this point

ALL of your early posts were contradictory you switched between LC and CObalt always voting for the one with the least amount even though you said you would go withthe bandwagon until the wagon was onLC. At this point you switched to Cobalt who was going after LC, Day 2 LC with less votes is more suspicious then your day 1 lynch so you could vote for LC and distance yourself while CObalt with the majority of the votes was gone why not stick with your Day 1 vote, CObalt certainly didn't get any cleaner day 2


YOu and LC are mafia I firmly believe this rereading your posts

i'm not mafia,i'm civ i've said that before and i dont expect it to convince anyone really, but it's the truth. if you're civ too you should not vote me! you're just making it easier for mafia.

This post, and sig's behavior in general, suggest that Bubbles and sig were not partners. But my current suspicion has Bubbles on the team with LC anyway, so that doesn't do much to make me feel good about her right now.

Spoiler: show

yay congrats everyone! sorry to see you go sig u played great, Lol @ your last post. sloonei good detective work there i knew i was right to trust your opinion. havent read everything since vote ended yet but very curious by the exchange between golden and long con. im not on anyone's team so def not baddie with long con, im open to the idea he is bad.

and thanks y'all for giving me at least one more day above ground;)
im using a digital keyboard right now which is extremely tedious, so ill end this here!

The "thanks y'all for giving me at least one more day" comment reads like scum who's still resigned to the belief that the suspicion against her is insurmountable and she'll be lynched soon accordingly. more scummy vibes for bubbles.

Spoiler: show

put my vote on gman... but honestly wouldn't be surprised if they are both bad. it may not make any difference though, seems likely long con is going out today.

Votes for G-man over Long Con on Day 4, while stating that she expects Long Con to be lynched. Could be a late effort to keep the window open for G-man to be lynched instead of her partner.

She responds to this suspicion here, but it does nothing to ease my feelings about her.

Spoiler: show

MM - why do they make you less convinced? When I read through them, it's like she offers suspicion of LC, but when crunch time comes she votes to save him...

i didnt vote to save him, my vote wouldve made no difference long con already have 9 posts by that time and gman only had 5 (iirc). i voted gman cause he seemed the scummier of the two , he has basically a total lack of civ sounding posts, and i was put off by so many votes on long con, seemed scapegoaty..but im glad he turned out to be mafia, seems the majority's instincts are better than i give them credit for lol. and if i was long con's team mate i wouldve voted with them, he was a sinking ship and it wouldve made me less conspicuous

would love to get some more posts by gman now that he's no longer insanified and still a top suspect.he's probably gonna go next if nothing else changes

Dom hope you feel better soon

And then this was her only post from yesterday:

Spoiler: show

Keep those votes coming!

happy to oblige
i knew there'd be a fair few votes on you but i didnt expect an avalanche

any last words gman?

Nothing in this post history makes me thing TinyBubbles is town.
Questions for TinyBubbles: You've expressed suspicion of Cobalt and Bass earlier in the game. Do you still feel suspicious of them? Why/why not? Who else do you have your eye on?

[Sloonei]

I don't have time for a true Turnip Head ISO, but I'll briefly comment on a few posts.

Spoiler: show

I did think it was strange when Hedgeowl was talking about bandwagon votes before voting even started. I thought it was a good sentiment for me personally to have out there, since Epig and Cobalt seem to wish for a bandwagon to happen on me, but it's an odd thing to say nonetheless.

S~V~S may be trying to pocket me with her defense of the word "interesting" and attack on Epig. My lynch would end up making her look better, and my survival with her in my "good books" would be advantageous as well.

If I were making a rainbow list at this point, I'd have Sloonei, Hedgeowl, S~V~S, and Epig as slight Mafia reads, and Golden and MP as slight Civ. I guess I don't need to invoke the rainbow to just say that. I want to read back over the Gumshoe stuff to see who else seemed to be trying to cast it in a worse light than I think it is, I don't think Sloonei was the only one, just the one that stuck out to me.

Linki: Thanks, MM, good to know I can always count on your support. If you did vote, could you let us know if votes are changeable in this game?

Why do you read that as buddying you, as opposed to attacking Epignosis, which is what i was doing?

This is what was bothering me too. LC lists you and Epi as two of his suspects and it's related to how you've behaved toward him, it feels like a close-minded thought process. In addition, his suspicion of you is predicated on what will happen if he, Long Con, is lynched and flips civvie. That feels like basic level NO U-ing, right there. It's not really the type of comment I see Long Con making often.

I like this post. He shows some strong early analysis of some fishy behavior from LC. Doesn't seem contrived at all.

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

I liked your post about SVS and if anything so far has convinced me she might be bad, it's your case. But, as I've got 0 experience with her as a player, it's still not enough for me to really comment on without getting her response first. So I'm just waiting for her to defend herself before I make a read.

Hey Sloonei, talk to me a bit about why you think SVS is bad. It seems, reading your posts, that you mostly think it because you agree with MP's case, is that right? I ask because much of MP's case is built, it seems to me, on how he thinks a civ SVS would have responded to his posts. Like, he feels that her responses aren't sounding like civvie SVS, that she is picking and choosing what to respond to. How does that mesh with you, who doesn't know SVS' playstyle?

With no meta, what part of the case has you ready to vote her? The main reason I ask is that when I read through last night, I noticed quite a handful of players who were seemingly choosing to only comment on parts of what people were saying. SVS was one, nutella I think was another (I'm at work, can't easily read back). Other people are not bothering to talk about suspicions at ALL. What makes SVS the one, for you?

SVS is only "the one" for me when i've narrowed it down to those three options, and since i made that declaration I think i've actually moved hack toward Cobalt. I'll probably wait to see how others vote before I decide myself.

But as for SVS, I was swayed by her most recent responses in the thread, which did almost nothing to dismiss the suspicions against her. They felt like relatively passive posts, and nothing in them made me feel good about her.
I can point to specifics later if needed.

I'd like to see some specifics. What do you mean by her posts feeling passive? More importantly can you show how her passiveness equates to her badness? It feels like a lot of people have a strong opinion on SVS already, but she's still a null read for me.

linki: Cobalt I think Sloonei hasn't made a case yet because, as he stressed, he's posting mainly from his phone. Hopefully he can elaborate though.

Like this as well. He seems to be genuinely interested in drawing some content and reads out of me. But I've played with Turnip Head before and know what he's capable of, so this doesn't really give me too strong of a townie vibe from him.

Spoiler: show

Golden's vote switch looks legit to me. His vote was useless on Hedgeowl, I was seeing if he would end up changing it.

I think the Epignosis kill was designed to make us keep looking at LC and Cobalt today. I don't have too many suspects at this point but my gut is telling me to look at Nutella more. Hedgeowl is still on my radar for general blendiness. I also thought Blooper's vote was... interesting.

Sig seems okay to me but I want to look more into the interactions surrounding him.

A few light Day 2 reads. I'd usually say I expect more out of TH, but is disappearance from this game shortly after changes things a bit. And it's hard to really judge the content of this post when he's not been able to follow up on any of it. For now I can say that I raised an eyebrow at his assessment of the night kill and his "okay" read on sig.

Spoiler: show

Golden's vote switch looks legit to me. His vote was useless on Hedgeowl, I was seeing if he would end up changing it.

I think the Epignosis kill was designed to make us keep looking at LC and Cobalt today. I don't have too many suspects at this point but my gut is telling me to look at Nutella more. Hedgeowl is still on my radar for general blendiness. I also thought Blooper's vote was... interesting.

Sig seems okay to me but I want to look more into the interactions surrounding him.

Here you say that the kill could be designed to make us keep looking at LC and Cobalt, but is it out of the question for the mafia to do it and play the wifom card?

It's not out of the question, I just think the wifom angle is less likely. Doesn't prohibit LC or Cobalt being on the mafia team that didn't kill Night 1, but I don't think either of them are on the team that killed Epi, because it so obviously leads to continued focus on those two.

IMO it's not very fun to play the wifom card as a baddie, and I think LC and Cobalt are both more inventive than that, especially against a foe like Epi. Cobalt in particular did not seem phased by Epi's approach toward him.

Follows up on his kill assessment, which I like. Seems like a fair point.

I've got a completely null/neutral read on Turnip Head still. I really hope he's able to come back to the game. But there's nothing I can really get out of any of these posts, as everything he says is very much still in the development stage and he's not been able to follow up on any of his early thoughts. Hope he's well and comes back soon.

[Sloonei]

Updated rainbow:

Strong town:
timmer
Moderate town:
nijuukyugou
Canucklehead
Golden
Scotty
Slight town:
Hedgeowl
Black Rock
Neutral:
FZ
Turnip Head
Bullzeye/DREAM/Devin
Slight mafia:
Cobalt
fingersplints
Epignosis 2.0
Gumshoe
Neverwhere
Bass the Clever
Nutella
Moderate mafia:
TinyBubbles
DFaraday
MetalMarsh

Some of those Slight Mafias and Neutrals are almost certainly town, but I'm not willing to dismiss any suspicions just yet. I'd like to hear more from everyone before I make any significant changes to this (if I get the chance).

[Sloonei]

And now before I go I want to say that this town has gotten off to one of the best starts I've ever seen, but there is still a lot of work to do and no one should ease up. Keep the discussion going and don't dismiss any suspicions unless you have 100% mod confirmation about a player. It's my personal theory that the more we post, the better chance town has to win. If the baddies are forced to talk and answer questions there's a greater chance of them being caught up in their lies and deceit. Ask questions, prod people, etc.. Town's greatest strength is in numbers. We've got more teammates than they do, and it's important that we work together to find out who's not working with us.

[Sloonei]

One more post! I don't know if anyone finds this visual helpful, but I do.

Both scum teams are now down to 2 members apiece, barring possible recruitment

Lloyd Webber – Baddie Team 1 (4 Roles)
Win Condition: Outnumber the civilians and eliminate Team Wildhorn and any other opposition, if it exists.
Sir Andrew Lloyd Webber
The Phantom of the Opera – The Phantom of the Opera is there, inside my mind.
Starlight Express - Starlight express, answer me yes (sig)
Cats - Memory, all alone in the moonlight (GamerGuy/G-man)

Wildhorn – Baddie Team 2 (3 Roles)
Win Condition: Outnumber the civilians and eliminate Team Lloyd Weber and any other opposition, if it exists.
Frank Wildhorn (Long Con)
Jekyll & Hyde - If I could reach you, if I could guide and teach you
Bonnie and Clyde – I’d rather breathe in life than dusty air.

Independents (4 Roles)
Andrew Lippa – And we were having a wild, wild party!
Stephen Schwartz – I’ve gotta be someone who lives all of his life in superlatives.
Oscar Hammerstein II – Some enchanted evening, you may find a stranger. (SVS)
Richard Rodgers –If I loved you, time and again, I would try to say all I'd want you to know

If by some miracle I'm still here tomorrow, my first order of business will be to look into interactions with G-man. I encourage others to do this as well.

[Epignosis]

It should be clear that I support a Long Con or Cobalt lynch too, but I have only one vote.

Indeed, sir - I remember this post of yours. However, the point is you chose to vote G-Man in the end.

And what does that indicate to you?

That you were less willing to vote LC the second time around when he was actually up for a lynch (after your first incarnation had died), which was odd, given how hard you went after him Day 1. Could be indicative of a team/alignment change.

Not only that, but a lot of his suspicion on me stemmed from him being aggravated that I wound up voting SVS on day one instead of Long Con. I explained afterward that I didn't realize how late people voted here and it didn't look like LC was going to get lynched so I switched my vote to someone else I found scummy, but that wasn't good enough for him. Why so angry that I didn't vote LC back then and then not vote LC when he had the chance later?

Erk.

Hold up.

We have like less than 8 hours from the deadline. I'm sticking with Long Con unless everyone actually decides to commit to someone else and make a case.

If LC flips bad, I'm inclined to think S~V~S a little bit clearer. She's the other person people have expressed scum leans on, so why throw shade on one of the only other talked about scum reads in the game? As far as I know, some people are willing to lynch Long Con and some people are willing to lynch SVS. Seems like a convenient opportunity to make her look bad if people would be persuaded to vote for her.

That's what you said.

Here is what the vote looked like at the end of the Day:

Spoiler: show

Long Con
6
Metalmarsh89 (2), Epignosis (8), Turnip Head (16), nijuukyugou (18), Gumshoe (21), Hedgeowl (22) 25%
MetalMarsh89

SVS
7
MovingPictures07 (9), DFaraday (10), S~V~S (13), Cobalt (14), sig (19), Long Con (23), Golden (24) 29%
Timmer

You switched your vote from LC to S~V~S, and that vote had to be before TH voted, as your S~V~S vote is 14th (right after she voted for herself). That means the vote at the moment you switched would have looked like this:

Spoiler: show

Long Con
3
Metalmarsh89 (2), Epignosis (8), Cobalt (#)
SVS
3
MovingPictures07 (9), DFaraday (10), S~V~S (13)

You took it from being a 3-3 tie to it being 2-4 against S~V~S. Yet you said:

That said, I'm moving my vote to SVS for now, as it doesn't seem that Long Con is gaining any traction, Epi.

In fact, it almost looks like he's keeping under the radar so as not to draw too much attention to himself.

I'll vote for him again next day when this SVS mess is out of our way.

++++

If you really wanted LC out, you allegedly had the power all along to make that happen. Instead, you baited other people into voting for you Day 2. Rather, you waited until Day 2, and like a serial villain, you began advertising to your enemy that you were going to switch the lynch to Long Con. Why didn't you keep mum about it and just do it?

That's a wasted lynch. You could have used it Day 1 and really helped the civilians early on.

++++

Compare this to Day 3, when once again, votes were changeable:

Long Con
2
Cobalt (4), sig (22) 8%

Did it look like Long Con was going to be lynched Day 3? If not, then why not change your vote to "someone else [you] found scummy" as you claim you did Day 1?

[Bubbles]

Updated rainbow:

Strong town:
timmer
Moderate town:
nijuukyugou
Canucklehead
Golden
Scotty
Slight town:
Hedgeowl
Black Rock
Neutral:
FZ
Turnip Head
Bullzeye/DREAM/Devin
Slight mafia:
Cobalt
fingersplints
Epignosis 2.0
Gumshoe
Neverwhere
Bass the Clever
Nutella
Moderate mafia:
TinyBubbles
DFaraday
MetalMarsh

Some of those Slight Mafias and Neutrals are almost certainly town, but I'm not willing to dismiss any suspicions just yet. I'd like to hear more from everyone before I make any significant changes to this (if I get the chance).

have you been corrupted sloonei? i just can't believe you honestly feel i'm mafia now

[Sloonei]

I have not been corrupted. These are my reasons:

TinyBubbles
I have been saying for a while that I'm wary of anyone who hopped on the TinyBubbles bandwagon earlier because of her "I'm civ again!" comments. This has not been because I have a town read on Bubbles herself, but because I thought that particular bandwagon was very very easy for scum to hop onto. I've not had a strong read on Bubbles at any point in this game, but she has bounced back and forth between both sides of my rainbow at various stages.

Spoiler: show

Hey all, im alive :o still lurking for the most part because it's honestly kind of intimidating at the start of a mafia game, i hate the thought of wrongly accusing people and there usually is a bunch of new people i am not familiar with, so can't tell if they are being themselves or acting out a role. on the plus side i've finished exams so don't have that stealing my time more for mafia, potentially And i'm a good guy AGAIN for the third time in a row! Which really doesn't help me train my mafia hunting instincts, like they say it takes a thief to catch a thief. Anyway, for what it is worth sloonei and golden are playing a lot like they did in the economics game so far, so i (want?) to believe they are civ. Don't know about the others like long con. Curious about the pm Dom sent like many of you, i would love if we could somehow join together and figure out what they all mean without actually posting them.

This first lynch vote i'm gonna probably bandwagon on the most voted person, since i figure that is marginally better than voting a random. It's a cop out, i know. Don't shoot me.

Btw sorry to see you go DDL! And welcome canucklehead, your first post made me lol

Here is that now infamous post of hers. This reads as uber-TinyBubbles, based on my one prior game with her (Economics, as she references here). My worry about her, which I stated at the time, was that this post was too in-meta for her. She made a few posts similar to this one in tone during the Economics game. If this is her first time being scum, I think it is reasonable to assume that she would be trying to duplicate her previous town meta, and this post could read exactly like that.

Spoiler: show

Hi TinyBubbles.
Right now it appears the three most popular names for lynch targets are Long Con, S~V~S, and Cobalt. If you were to choose between those three, who would you pick and why?

At the risk of contradicting what i just said about bandwagoning, id probably go for either svs or cobalt, because they arent getting as much negative press as long con atm. This game has barely even begun, i find it interesting (to use your word heh) that long con already seems so scummy to some. There is just something off about that. im willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because of it.

Who would you vote for?

Openly contradicts herself to defend Long Con, which definitely lends some credibility to the "LC and Bubbles are teammates" theory. A first time scum would also probably be less willing to bus their teammates and would probably be inclined to defend them early in the game like this. Hm.

Spoiler: show

And i'm a good guy AGAIN for the third time in a row!

I wouldn't really question that if you hadn't mentioned it...

That's why I posted Nick. That came off as forced if anything has.

Its the truth. Suspect me if you wish though, i wouldnt blame ya. Though id be pissed to get voted off early in this game, cause its a cool theme.

Anyway, what timmer said about cobalt revenge voting makes some sense, im gonna go ahead and trust his instincts, and vote for cobalt now. Sory cobalt if you are innocent. I may just be setting myself up for an early lynching myself by doing this, but dont want to miss the vote like in last games (wont be home 10 hrs from now) dont want to vote long con because of what i said before, svs is still a mystery but he hasnt voted which makes mphim slightly less suspicious than cobalt at the moment. I actually feel like svs is mafia, but dont have anything concrete to point to

This post again makes me feel like she's a first time scum trying to stay within her meta. Her comment about "setting herself up for a lynch" seems like she's hyper-aware of her own play and the way she might be perceived by others, which I take to be indicative of first-time scum. She also states a suspicion on SVS but says she has nothing "concrete to point to" and then votes for Cobalt instead. If you thought SVS was mafia, why did you not vote for her, Bubbles?

Spoiler: show

Put my vote in for long con, because there are far too many votes on cobalt right now, i dont trust that thre's not a scummy reason to get him lynched (even if he is mafia). Could be a willing sacrifice, to call attention away from the others. And long can has been slightly suspicious from the start, though i dont know him fromprevious games so cant be sure its not just his usual style. He seemed an easy target last poll so i wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt. however now there is no point, most likely cobalt's going to get lynched.

And sorry for not posting much. some posts have seemed kind of hostile, made me reluctant to involve myself. I am still around though

I think i recall bass suspecting i'm scum? I dont know if that was just meant to provoke a reaction or if it's his real opinion. Either way it's fishy.. and yes, for the 1000th time im still civ and will be civ ALL GAME and if you think that it's scummy of me to reiterate that, you don't really know me at all or you're misdirecting.

On Day 2 she puts a meaningless vote on LC after Cobalt had collected all of the votes. Could be an effort to distance herself from her teammate, LC, while not actually putting him in any danger. And she also accuses her own accusers of "misdirecting", which seemed odd to me at the time, and still does. I called her out on it and this was her response:

Spoiler: show

Put my vote in for long con, because there are far too many votes on cobalt right now, i dont trust that thre's not a scummy reason to get him lynched (even if he is mafia). Could be a willing sacrifice, to call attention away from the others. And long can has been slightly suspicious from the start, though i dont know him fromprevious games so cant be sure its not just his usual style. He seemed an easy target last poll so i wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt. however now there is no point, most likely cobalt's going to get lynched.

And sorry for not posting much. some posts have seemed kind of hostile, made me reluctant to involve myself. I am still around though

I think i recall bass suspecting i'm scum? I dont know if that was just meant to provoke a reaction or if it's his real opinion. Either way it's fishy.. and yes, for the 1000th time im still civ and will be civ ALL GAME and if you think that it's scummy of me to reiterate that, you don't really know me at all or you're misdirecting.

Are you saying that people who are suspicious of you are purposefully misdirecting the thread by putting attention on you? Surely you do not think you should be above suspicion.
Of all the people who have accused you, who do you get the scummiest vibes from?

Not necessarily, but i wouldnt be surprised.if i was mafia id be wanting to call attention to a particular person and then pretend to have a debate about them with a baddie teammate,. Just to get people's stance on them. I think real civs dont form strong opinions about any one person unless there is a lot of evidence or its close to lynch time. Also dont get into tight knit conversations about that person unless the thread is already moving in that direction. I dunno maybe im wrong

And of course, not saying im above suspicion. But im not trying to shift attention on anyone in particular, and what have i said thats so suspicious? Other that saying im civvie? Honestly im more surprised other people dont claim it if they are. i just dont want to be lynched early, i would love to see how this game develops towards the end and i want to be a part of that.

Scummiest vibes.. probably bass. And from everyone else, im getting some scummy vibes from hedgeowl and black rock.
Neverwhere seems to be exactly the same as in previous games, but she was baddie in those games. Not sure about how i feel about her.
Also Epi 2.0 is not giving off the same vibes as original Epi, and i dont believe RL is the only reason. On my radar

This post reads like a lot of backtracking. She basically says that having a suspect is scummy, and that she's not trying to put attention on anyone in particular even though she had specifically called out Bass in both of these posts. And that's kind of the point of the game, but she says it's not what she's doing, which just reads as suspicious to me. Bubbles is probably a top suspect at this point.

Spoiler: show

put a vote on myself... cause it's probably gonna go that way anyway and honestly i am not really enjoying this game anymore. i'm civ though, you'll discover that as soon as i'm lynched.

I have not been able to shake the feeling that her self-vote was the result of a flustered first-time scum player who just wanted to throw in the towel after accumulating some early suspicion. Bubbles came under some fire (for similar reasons) in the Economics game but never changed her attitude or did anything like this. This is really the first example of her breaking meta, and it doesn't strike me as a particularly townish thing to do here.

Spoiler: show

Your second post and third post, saying you won't be good at catching mafia since you've never been mafia, also giving the excuse of being intimidated and not wanting to wrongly accuse and saying you would go with abandwagon. LC is the bandwagon suddenly you don't want to bandwagon anymore? You also voted against LC top bandwagon voted early and said you wouldn't be back and voted for Cobalt, at this point you thought SVS was mafia.

timmer changed my mind he said that cobalt revenge voted which made sense to me at the time. prior to his post i probably would've bandwagoned like i said. i was feel mostly neutral about everyone then, thats why i "suddenly" latched on to cobalt. it was marginally better than voting random.

Day 2 you switch back to LC because there are to many votes on Cobalt, even though day 1 you didn't think LC was scum and voted for Cobalt. Your also giving Cobalt the benefit of the doubt since he is an easy lynch target (who you thought was the top mafia day 1 and LC was the last suspicious of the three)

i didnt say i didnt think long con was scum, i said it was suspicious that so many people were accusing him. it was so early in the game at that point, his guilt couldnt have been proven beyond a doubt. he seemed like an obvious mafia target and i didnt want to contribute to it.

ALso let me call attention to this you said you had to vote early since you would be gone 10+ hours but only 3 hours later you come on and comment

i said i'd be gone 10+ hours FROM that point, not that i'd be gone for 10+ after making that post, i was still free when i made that comment. basically i thought i wouldnt be around by the time the vote ended, so wanted to give a heads up. no conspiracy behind it.

Said you had scummy vibes from Bass twice no reasoning behind these vibes.

thats true.. i'm sorry for not elaborating. i dont really have a concrete reason to give, and my opinion of him is not certain yet.

Then out of your 13 posts you make 4 in the final few hours, switch from lynching yourself to lynching me and asking people their opinion of me.

cause i was feeling better about being in the game and i want to save myself. i'm asking about you because the vote it likely gonna be between you and me.. who else would i ask about? it would make less sense to start discussing dfaraday or someone at this point

ALL of your early posts were contradictory you switched between LC and CObalt always voting for the one with the least amount even though you said you would go withthe bandwagon until the wagon was onLC. At this point you switched to Cobalt who was going after LC, Day 2 LC with less votes is more suspicious then your day 1 lynch so you could vote for LC and distance yourself while CObalt with the majority of the votes was gone why not stick with your Day 1 vote, CObalt certainly didn't get any cleaner day 2


YOu and LC are mafia I firmly believe this rereading your posts

i'm not mafia,i'm civ i've said that before and i dont expect it to convince anyone really, but it's the truth. if you're civ too you should not vote me! you're just making it easier for mafia.

This post, and sig's behavior in general, suggest that Bubbles and sig were not partners. But my current suspicion has Bubbles on the team with LC anyway, so that doesn't do much to make me feel good about her right now.

Spoiler: show

yay congrats everyone! sorry to see you go sig u played great, Lol @ your last post. sloonei good detective work there i knew i was right to trust your opinion. havent read everything since vote ended yet but very curious by the exchange between golden and long con. im not on anyone's team so def not baddie with long con, im open to the idea he is bad.

and thanks y'all for giving me at least one more day above ground;)
im using a digital keyboard right now which is extremely tedious, so ill end this here!

The "thanks y'all for giving me at least one more day" comment reads like scum who's still resigned to the belief that the suspicion against her is insurmountable and she'll be lynched soon accordingly. more scummy vibes for bubbles.

Spoiler: show

put my vote on gman... but honestly wouldn't be surprised if they are both bad. it may not make any difference though, seems likely long con is going out today.

Votes for G-man over Long Con on Day 4, while stating that she expects Long Con to be lynched. Could be a late effort to keep the window open for G-man to be lynched instead of her partner.

She responds to this suspicion here, but it does nothing to ease my feelings about her.

Spoiler: show

MM - why do they make you less convinced? When I read through them, it's like she offers suspicion of LC, but when crunch time comes she votes to save him...

i didnt vote to save him, my vote wouldve made no difference long con already have 9 posts by that time and gman only had 5 (iirc). i voted gman cause he seemed the scummier of the two , he has basically a total lack of civ sounding posts, and i was put off by so many votes on long con, seemed scapegoaty..but im glad he turned out to be mafia, seems the majority's instincts are better than i give them credit for lol. and if i was long con's team mate i wouldve voted with them, he was a sinking ship and it wouldve made me less conspicuous

would love to get some more posts by gman now that he's no longer insanified and still a top suspect.he's probably gonna go next if nothing else changes

Dom hope you feel better soon

And then this was her only post from yesterday:

Spoiler: show

Keep those votes coming!

happy to oblige
i knew there'd be a fair few votes on you but i didnt expect an avalanche

any last words gman?

Nothing in this post history makes me thing TinyBubbles is town.
Questions for TinyBubbles: You've expressed suspicion of Cobalt and Bass earlier in the game. Do you still feel suspicious of them? Why/why not? Who else do you have your eye on?

[Bubbles]

I read it, i'm just sort of amazed, i am sure my posts couldve been interpreted differently it's like you took a deliberately negative stance on them. and you would have been the obvious choice for recruitment by mafia :/

[Sloonei]

Is there anything in particular that you feel like I'm deliberately misconstruing? I definitely don't think you're a sure thing to be bad, but right now you seem like a pretty good candidate. Your response to my case is the thing I'm most interested in right now. and anyone else who wants to weigh in certainly should as well.

[Golden]

I still do not agree that sloonei is 'the obvious choice to have been recruited' and I would like to understand why bubbles feels this is the case.