here is my view on everyone in the game - i had to phone some of these reads in/rush my explanations because im low on time and energy and dont want to repeat stuff that ive already typed out multiple times
i still think that
alison is probably town, but i will acknowledge that mac has made some legitimate points against her that give me pause. i do agree with mac that based on my understanding of alison as a player, it seems likely to me that alison would enter today pushing porsche today very confidently today as a villager, but i’m not sure how much i should care about this point since alison is ultimately still POE’ing porscha and still trying to get her killed. i think it was also valid for mac to point out that from alison’s POV as town, she would probably view herself as needing to be resolved, but i’m also not sure how much to care about this point since alison has started pushing for herself to die within the last couple of hours
beyond that, i have a couple of primary reasons to think that alison is town. i’ve already gone over them extensively in other posts, but to recap:
-i don’t see many coherent worlds where alison exists as a wolf. alison was voted and pushed heavily by nearly everyone in my current POE on d1, which means that a world where alison is a wolf is also likely to be a world where she was hard bussed and pushed for absolutely zero reason by the rest of her team who was also being widely POE’d and suspected. this does not make any god damn sense to me as a scum strategy, and i think it could just be indicative of alison being a villager
-the only world where alison is a wolf is likely to be a world where my view of the game is very bad and i am totally wolfsiding, which is a world where wolves are likely to be on the falcon voters on d1, which would mean there are probably multiple wolves within like, (mac, arogame, lilypetal, lucy, etc), which i currently consider to be unlikely to be the case
-alison’s approach toward me today makes almost zero sense in a world where she is mafia. i can not conceptualize a world where alison is a wolf, i am the only player in the game actively defending her, and she goes out of her way to push on me, show skepticism toward me, and try to set me up as a potential elimination. it is the easiest possible way that i could turn on her, and i think she is unlikely to risk alienating one of the few people actively speaking in her defense as a wolf
-she lacks any self-preservation intent, to the extent that she is now self-voting and asking to be eliminated, which i have only seen her do as town and never seen her do as mafia
my view is that alison was pushed on heavily by the mafia at the beginning of the game for bad, shoddy reasons and then the suspicion against her gained momentum largely through osmosis. i feel that my arguments for her to be town are stronger than my arguments for her to be mafia
i’m struggling to conceptualize a world where
creature is town, even though it’s still possible in theory. his pushes on me/mac are horrible and remind me of how hells pushed a blatantly incorrect worldview from d2-onward in the spec chat invitational because they were in anti-spew. their reads are not building up to a coherent or logical worldview. i expanded on my concerns on creature here (
https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 06#p955506) .
i think that
boq is likely to be town for reasons i outlined here. (
https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 655#p95565)
lily is one of my strongest townreads for reasons i outlined here
viewtopic.php?p=956252#p956252 and here
viewtopic.php?p=955494#p955494 and because of the way she responded to both the pressure against her on d1 and the pressure that alisona/ro gave her over the last several pages. i am mildly concerned about clearing her too easily because i don’t really know what her wolfrange looks like, but think she looks like a villager from pretty much all perspectives
lucy is a townlean for reasons outlined here
viewtopic.php?p=956252#p956252. i can explain this read in more detail if it’s needed but i’ml leaving it short to save on time
i think
mac is an obvious villager and wouldnt tinfoil him until LYLO at the earliest
i have no reason to townread the
misssparkles slot and think they could be an lolwolf in an easy world. i have been burned too many times lately with assuming that LHF/slanky slots are wolves to feel any level of confidence about that, though
i think the only real concern i have about
aro right now is his push on lily, because the way he was interrogating her earlier in the thread felt like a wolf trying desperately to hang on to a viable miselimination and less like a villager genuinely trying to figure out lily’s alignment
but thinking about it more, i think his treatment of lily might be town indicative for him. @lilypetal - based on my understanding of aro’s scumgame, he has a tendency to be very cloying and pocket toward nearly everyone, and he goes out of his way to avoid making enemies with other people. he is very conflict avoidant, and his main focus is looking as agreeable as possible so that he can stay deep and avoid facing any scrutiny. i think that his push on you in this game accomplishes the exact opposite of this, because it is almost guaranteed to draw negative attention to himself and make him look worse, when if he is a wolf he could easily just push within the more consensus-y names and nobody would bat an eye. i think his treatment of you as a wolf would probably be a lot more pockety and a lot more focused on making sure he looks good from your point of view. the fact that he has continued pushing on you for so long makes me think he might just be a villager who is genuinely having a hard time coming to a world where you’re town
and more broadly, if i ask myself: “who do i think is trying to solve the game the most?, aro stands out as one of the top names putting the most effort into piecing things together and communicating with others, and his reads generally just seem more complex and multi-faceted than he did when i saw him as a wolf in a recent game. i know that aro has an incredible wolf game but much like alison, i think i have more reasons to call him town than not, and the answer that requires the least amount of assumptions is that hei s just town
i would like
neon to be town because i like her playstyle/personality but i am struggling to come up with any coherent reasons for why she IS town beyond: “some of her posts feel tonally towny”, and that’s the type of territory where i tend to misread players the most. can anyone who townreads neon give me a bit more clarity on why?
i townlean
porsche because her response to pressure + depth of thought exhibited in solving + general sense of entitlement after being widely POE’d by the rest of the game feel more like they come from the attitude of a villager who feels scorned and less like they come from a wolf who is being correctly pushed. i acknowledge that this is weak read but it’s what my intuition feels anyway
i have no reason to townread
nanook and think he might be a wolf that is flying under the radar. if he is town then i can usually find him and i have not found him yet. this concerns me.
i think
seanzie has wolf equity for reasons outlined here:
https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 54#p955754