The Syndicate

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:08 am

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:04 am I don't really want to elim someone who just isn't here and hasn't done anything since I actually don't think that group is as likely to be scum as the midposter group based on past experience with a similar sized game that had a lot of slankers. In that game literally all the slankers were town and scum easily won by just posting enough to get by. I don't think all the slankers are town here but eliming a slanker feels like a shot in the dark and is probably less likely to hit scum at this point.

Looking at Polypies' ISO it doesn't look good but it just looks like a bunch of nothing. Kinda feels rand so I don't really want to go on that wagon.

fair

whoever received the gun n1 - please shoot already

probably for the best that nik's slot is resolved even if i'm leaning slightly town on it

in a perfect world nik would become obvtown and we'd find a different scapegoat

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:10 am whoever received the gun n1 - please shoot already

tutuu

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:10 am whoever received the gun n1 - please shoot already

You realize that would kill the target AND them, right?

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:14 am

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:10 am whoever received the gun n1 - please shoot already

You realize that would kill the target AND them, right?

yes i would have shot it already if i had it

sig wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:24 am I'd also think once Jack was close to being lynched he'd out himself in scum chat to try and get saved, so maybe we should take another look at the players who did the later swing on NIK.

This is a reasonable assumption. Is there even a point in mafia have a scum chat if it's anonymous to the point where they couldn't even hint at who each other are?

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:45 am It bothers me that MR is the only person that thinks NIK could just be a townie in a new environment and is giving NIK way more of a chance than anyone else is. It feels like MR might have TMI about NIK being not mafia, so I'd actually vote MR over NIK right now (haven't completely caught up yet).

On the contrary, I don't think this makes MR look bad at all. Then again, I agree with MR on the thread state.

As some bloke once said, if the thread state sucks, change it.

Thundercat wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:25 am As some bloke once said, if the thread state sucks, change it.

Which is interesting tbh because as soon as we get off the NIK train so he isn't the top wagon

suddenly overnight (for me) a lot of people jump on it to return us to the status quo

it feels as if someone there was voting by virtue of abstaining but I haven't looked into that yet

112 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:53 am

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:50 am

112 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:47 am

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:45 am It bothers me that MR is the only person that thinks NIK could just be a townie in a new environment and is giving NIK way more of a chance than anyone else is. It feels like MR might have TMI about NIK being not mafia, so I'd actually vote MR over NIK right now (haven't completely caught up yet).

disagree

MR is the type who would state doubts as town

i totally believe this is a read he would have

and i'm sort of warming up to tp nik

If not MR or NIK, who do you suspect?

poly
nova
nanook to a degree
grand scheme to a degree
sig
kylemii
thundercat somewhat

do the qualifiers represent your mafia teammates?

(sorry I've been wanting to use this line ever since space invaders)

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:55 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:37 am If I am playing the way I am playing I am a townsiding mafia. The optimal thing to do is turn on me in the late game if I don't manage to get myself cleared somehow strongly. Let me townside and kill my team off then kill me. There's no pro town agenda behind tinfoiling me at this juncture.

I don't like this defense. I disagree with this reasoning because if we can elim a mafia over a townie then that's good for town no matter who that mafia might be "siding" with. Also a "townsiding mafia" could be an important mafia PR. This doesn't come from a towny mindset.

Nah it's onbrand for town mac. He used this logic a few times when I was hydraing with him in game 1.

Polypies was the leading wagon at 4 votes when Thundercat and I got on him, if I recall correctly. Then, in less than 12 hours, NIK is up to 8 votes, meaning 6 or 5 people got on in a very short amount of time.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:37 am Polypies was the leading wagon at 4 votes when Thundercat and I got on him, if I recall correctly. Then, in less than 12 hours, NIK is up to 8 votes, meaning 6 or 5 people got on in a very short amount of time.

And this was after 24 hours had passed since SoD2.

Current wagons; figured I should keep this here just in case it becomes relevant in the future.

NIK
8
38%
Voters: Stupid Sexy Flanders, Grand Scheme, Made, Chuck, sabie12, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Myo, Master Radishes
novaselineever
2
10%
Voters: MacDougall, falcon45ca
polypies73
5
24%
Voters: tutuu, 112, nutella, Thundercat, MartinGG99
Sabie12
1
5%
Voters: Joe Who?

I will say I've liked Sabie's posts a lot more this round compared to D1.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:34 am

Thundercat wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:25 am As some bloke once said, if the thread state sucks, change it.

Which is interesting tbh because as soon as we get off the NIK train so he isn't the top wagon

suddenly overnight (for me) a lot of people jump on it to return us to the status quo

it feels as if someone there was voting by virtue of abstaining but I haven't looked into that yet

What do you mean by this?


My impression is that the voters fall into two camps: They think NIK is scum, or they think chopping NIK resolves something. To those in the second camp, what does chopping NIK resolve?

Did Alison make a joke???

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:37 am Polypies was the leading wagon at 4 votes when Thundercat and I got on him, if I recall correctly. Then, in less than 12 hours, NIK is up to 8 votes, meaning 6 or 5 people got on in a very short amount of time.

I don't think polypies said anything to warrant people moving their votes back either.

Here's the vote-count from D1 that I took note:

D1 VC

112
2
8%
Voters: KZA, MartinGG99
Jackofhearts2005
10
38%
Voters: Stupid Sexy Flanders, 112, nutella, Master Radishes, tutuu, NIK, Made, Joe Who?, Alison, Thunal33
MacDougall
1
4%
Voters: BoKnows
NIK
9
35%
Voters: sig, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, sabie12, Jackofhearts2005, Thundercat, polypies73, Grand Scheme, MacDougall, falcon45ca

No vote: Kylemii, Novaselinenever, Chuck

D2 VC (So far at time of writing)

NIK
8
38%
Voters: Stupid Sexy Flanders, Grand Scheme, Made, Chuck, sabie12, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Myo, Master Radishes
novaselineever
2
10%
Voters: MacDougall, falcon45ca, KZA
polypies73
5
24%
Voters: tutuu, 112, nutella, Thundercat, MartinGG99
Sabie12
1
5%
Voters: Joe Who?

No vote: Kylemii, Novaselinenever, polypies73, Alison, Thunal33, NIK

Only SSF, MR, and Made have maintained a vote on Jack on D1 and NIK on D2 as of this moment.

These voters are people who have primarily voted NIK on both D1 and D2.

These are people who voted Jack D1 but as of the moment haven't maintained a vote on NIK for D2. (NIK not included unless you're expecting a self-vote)

These are people who voted NIK D1 but as of the moment haven't maintained a vote on NIK for D2. (Jack not included since he's dead)

These are the people who jumped onto the NIK wagon as of D2. Notably, these are both players who seemingly either arrived or subbed in today. (Coloring BoKnows since Myo is his slot)


Quite a few people jumped off the wagon and quite a few jumped on the wagon of NIK when comparing D1 to D2, though 3 voters have been consistent in voting NIK since D1.

The colors here are simply for visualization purposes, and have nothing to do with alignment.

My brain kinda hurts trying to figure out something from this, but I hope for someone it'll prove a useful analysis.

I'll see if I think of or realize something later.

i think the colors look very pretty martin so for that reason i appreciate it very much ^_^ *kiss*

like for real, you chose colors that didn't have too much saturation and brightness and were pleasant on the eyes

if anyone complains about it due to them using light theme then don't listen to them, they're probably a flat earther too

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:32 pm like for real, you chose colors that didn't have too much saturation and brightness and were pleasant on the eyes

if anyone complains about it due to them using light theme then don't listen to them, they're probably a flat earther too

Probably all part of his mafia scheme, makes appealing colors and only civs would do that

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:20 pm Only SSF, MR, and Made have maintained a vote on Jack on D1 and NIK on D2 as of this moment.

These voters are people who have primarily voted NIK on both D1 and D2.

These are people who voted Jack D1 but as of the moment haven't maintained a vote on NIK for D2. (NIK not included unless you're expecting a self-vote)

These are people who voted NIK D1 but as of the moment haven't maintained a vote on NIK for D2. (Jack not included since he's dead)

These are the people who jumped onto the NIK wagon as of D2. Notably, these are both players who seemingly either arrived or subbed in today. (Coloring BoKnows since Myo is his slot)

So this is a great look if Jack + NIK are W/W

This is a good look if NIK is a wolf, and a bad look if NIK is town.

This is a good look if Jack + NIK are W/V

This is a bad look if NIK is wolf, but a good look if he's town

This is a bad look if NIK is town, but a semi-good look if NIK is a wolf

So, basically:

+ Town points if NIK is town:

Color
Color

+ Town points if NIK is wolf:

Color
Color
Color

And vice versa for +Scum points to the opposite side (Though since these players have already eliminated a wolf, I wouldn't say its too bad if they miseliminated here)

If NIK is a 3p then I don't !@#$ing know what to do with this.

Of course the only way to know if this was worthwhile is to ironically flip NIK :/.

Night flips don't happen, and even then I'm doubtful NIK gets night-killed.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:41 pm Probably all part of his mafia scheme, makes appealing colors and only civs would do that

Well, last time I did use colors (without paying attention to the colors I used) I got this response:

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 27, 2020 1:35 pm Also a slight hypocrisy here unless I'm misunderstanding lol.

BoKnows wrote: ↑Fri Nov 27, 2020 1:44 pm The yellow font hurt me eyes.

I would rather have something that is conducive to the reader, rather than to never use colors at all and have them trudge through a wall of grey text to get my message very slowly; that just only encourages people to not read and/or misunderstand or fail to understand what I say.

I don't think there would've been an effective way to post what I did without causing confusion amongst some readers.

I'm rooting for NIK to be town so I can get town points.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:44 pm And vice versa for +Scum points to the opposite side (Though since these players have already eliminated a wolf, I wouldn't say its too bad if they miseliminated here)

Fixed.

where do I vote tbh

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:46 pm Of course the only way to know if this was worthwhile is to ironically flip NIK :/.

Night flips don't happen, and even then I'm doubtful NIK gets night-killed.

Oh and

[VOTE: NIK] aubergine

Might as well consider myself part of the voters here with this statement. I don't want my investment (such as intentionally making NIK not the top wagon temporarily) to go to waste.

still have not read a single NIK post, no ragrets

Give me a gun, I have a master plan

KZA wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:03 pm Give me a gun, I have a master plan

i hope it involves pointing it at me

Odd thing to say

Thundercat wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:21 am

sig wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:24 am I'd also think once Jack was close to being lynched he'd out himself in scum chat to try and get saved, so maybe we should take another look at the players who did the later swing on NIK.

This is a reasonable assumption. Is there even a point in mafia have a scum chat if it's anonymous to the point where they couldn't even hint at who each other are?

Exactly, I think its even a stretch to assume they just didn't all reveal themselves right away. Obliterator needs them alive and can only soup based off roles so why not?

Basically I'm now thinking we should ignore the whole anonymous thing and just assume mafia revealed themselves

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:46 pm

KZA wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:03 pm Give me a gun, I have a master plan

i hope it involves pointing it at me

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:35 am

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:55 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:37 am If I am playing the way I am playing I am a townsiding mafia. The optimal thing to do is turn on me in the late game if I don't manage to get myself cleared somehow strongly. Let me townside and kill my team off then kill me. There's no pro town agenda behind tinfoiling me at this juncture.

I don't like this defense. I disagree with this reasoning because if we can elim a mafia over a townie then that's good for town no matter who that mafia might be "siding" with. Also a "townsiding mafia" could be an important mafia PR. This doesn't come from a towny mindset.

Nah it's onbrand for town mac. He used this logic a few times when I was hydraing with him in game 1.

Okay. I don't feel great about Mac since he's more UTR than usual and it feels like he's been repeating his takes a lot instead of making new ones or engaging with others, but I wouldn't elim him today.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 2:05 pm

Thundercat wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:21 am

sig wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:24 am I'd also think once Jack was close to being lynched he'd out himself in scum chat to try and get saved, so maybe we should take another look at the players who did the later swing on NIK.

This is a reasonable assumption. Is there even a point in mafia have a scum chat if it's anonymous to the point where they couldn't even hint at who each other are?

Exactly, I think its even a stretch to assume they just didn't all reveal themselves right away. Obliterator needs them alive and can only soup based off roles so why not?

Basically I'm now thinking we should ignore the whole anonymous thing and just assume mafia revealed themselves

I think it's a fairly safe bet that the mafia would try to guess who each other are based on posts in maf chat if they didn't reveal themselves, so they still have more info than town.

KZA wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:10 pm[VOTE: Nova] aubergine

Sheep my vote on Nova, eh? Nice

Nik wagon growing so fast is sketchy. I think I trust the people on the poly and nova wagons more on average.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:16 pm Nik wagon growing so fast is sketchy. I think I trust the people on the poly and nova wagons more on average.

Exactly the feeling I had at EOD1, and then again this morning when i slid my vote over to Nova.

I think the question for the NIK wagon is will they be a recurring thing? Like can the game move forward effectively if they're unflipped. Since if not now would be the time to do it when civs are ahead by this much. I'm back and forth on NIK I voted for them last phase partly to tie it just because and partly since I thought they were worse than Jack.

It still bugs me that NIK and Jack took so long to vote for each other and just gut wise.

And can we really judge wagon size as an issue when Jack wagon was packed with people?

Also I've not looked back yet. But, it doesn't seem like anyone's really done a deep dive of the people who defended Jack right?

sig wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:56 pm I think the question for the NIK wagon is will they be a recurring thing? Like can the game move forward effectively if they're unflipped. Since if not now would be the time to do it when civs are ahead by this much. I'm back and forth on NIK I voted for them last phase partly to tie it just because and partly since I thought they were worse than Jack.

It still bugs me that NIK and Jack took so long to vote for each other and just gut wise.

We're clever people. I think we can handle it if we get to late-game with NIK unresolved.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:56 pm And can we really judge wagon size as an issue when Jack wagon was packed with people?

But I agree with this too. I don't see anything worrying about NIK's wagon and how/when it formed this Day.

In fact, wait, who said that...

Oh it was Martin.

Hmm.

Btw have I missed something about why tutuu is not doing anything this game?

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:04 pm Btw have I missed something about why tutuu is not doing anything this game?

Hmm she did some stuff when she was sus'd early on. Maybe I will shoot her as she asked.

I think wagoning NIK over someone else just because the slot needs to be resolved isn't good logic. I don't really like either the NIK or Poly wagons but I can't say I dislike them or object to them either. That's the problem when a large portion of the game doesn't give many takes.