The Syndicate

Now that I'm home, I can properly inform you all that Inawordyes was a batch of hideous, misleading oatmeal raisin cookies.

a2thezebra
0
No votes
DrWilgy
2
Matt (9), Metalmarsh89 (18) 11%
Dyslexicon
0
No votes
Golden
1
DrWilgy (5) 6%
ika
0
No votes
Inawordyes
6
MovingPictures07 (3), Soneji (10), sig (11), Marco (12), ika (15), Golden (16) 33%
Marco
0
No votes
Metalmarsh89
0
No votes
MovingPictures07
0
No votes
Pscittaciform
0
No votes
sig
1
Inawordyes (14) 6%
Sloonei
0
No votes
Soneji
1
Dyslexicon (17) 6%
Zexy
1
a2thezebra (13) 6%
No Lynch
0
No votes
Unvote
0
No votes
Host/Non-players/Dead players
6
JaggedJimmyJay (1), Epignosis (2), Scotty (4), S~V~S (6), Sloonei (7), Quin (8)

Night 2 has ended.
Day 3 will last 36 hours with a deadline at 10:00 PM on Thursday night eastern US/Canada time.

Well that's unfortunate.

VOTE MATT

Now we're looking at the only possible scenarios of F, 1, and 4.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Based on last night's kill, here are the possible setups.

Spoiler: show

Set A

• 1x Town Jailkeeper
  1x 1-Shot Bulletproof Town
  1x Town Innocent Child
  10x Vanilla Town
  1x Mafia Roleblocker
  1x Mafia 1-Shot Vigilante
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set C

• 1x Doctor
  1x Town Tracker
  1x Town Vigilante
  10x Vanilla Town
  1x Mafia Role Cop
  1x Mafia Jailkeeper
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set D

• 2x Town Masons
  1x Town Bodyguard
  1x Town Tracker
  9x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x Mafia Ninja
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set E

• 1x 2-Shot Town Jailkeeper
  1x Town Cop w/ Night 0 town check
  11x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x Mafia Roleblocker
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set F

• 1x Town Even Night Vigilante
  1x Town Jailkeeper
  11x Vanilla Town
  1x Mafia Jack-of-all-Trades
  3x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set 1

• 1x Town Even Night Vigilante
  1x Town Jailkeeper
  11x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x Mafia Role Cop
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set 3

• 1x 1-Shot Bulletproof Town
  2x Town Masons
  1x Town Tracker
  9x Vanilla Town
  1x Mafia Jack-of-all-Trades
  3x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set 4

• 1x Town Vigilante
  1x Town Bodyguard
  1x 2-Shot Town Jailkeeper
  10x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Bulletproof
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set 5

• 1x Town Cop w/ night 0 check
  1x Town Jailkeeper
  11x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x Mafia Jailkeeper
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

I realize this doesn't narrow it down a ton, but we can rule out Scenarios B, 2, and 6 because none of those contain a vig.

Nooooo!! My brain twin! RIP Dizzy and Zexy. I hope to get to play other games with you both again. Two deaths, guess that means we are indeed looking at a Town Vig. Right? MM needs to post that little chart (Linki: Seems he has. Lol.)

We did catch a mafia in IAWY though, which is awesome. I'm going to start some teammate and voting analyses based on that flip.

Unfortunately, it'll have to wait... big test is tomorrow morning. So my activity will be really spotty until tomorrow afternoon (Central). I'm pretty sure if I spend too much time on mafia today I'll fail. Seriously. So yeah, don't want that. Thankfully, I'll be taking the rest of the day off after the test on Thursday, so I'll be free to mafia nearly that whole time.

I don't feel comfortable casting a vote yet; I don't currently have a moderate mafia read or stronger. Need to perform analyses first, especially since that IAWY flip will inevitably give meaning to posts. If anyone wants to start on either teammate or voting analysis, or both, feel free. I'll contribute what I can when I can.

See you all later!

Well..... not much has change about my thoughts

still willign to get sig/MP

I also won't be around much until this evening, but I wanted to see the results.

Ninja'd ya MP.


Just a note. There are 6 people dead and only 1 of them was a Syndicate regular. Someone's got it out for the new people.

Okay, first up, why are you voting Matt?

Sloonei dropped his vote off of Frog which resulted in Frog and IAWY tied at Day 1 end. Bussing is one thing but this makes absolutely no sense. He had been stating Frog as his scum-read throughout. Why jump off and jeopardise your own teammate (IAWY)?

And I have to bring this up.

Marco wrote:If IAWY flips scum, wouldn't look good for Golden.

I'm forgetting what exactly led me to say that, it was something to do with the exact vote switch pattern. I'll try to go back and create a vote timeline to see if there was actually some merit in what I said.

This is the post, by the way. If someone else wants to go a couple pages back and look through the votes themselves.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Now we're looking at the only possible scenarios of F, 1, and 4.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Based on last night's kill, here are the possible setups.

Spoiler: show

Set A

• 1x Town Jailkeeper
  1x 1-Shot Bulletproof Town
  1x Town Innocent Child
  10x Vanilla Town
  1x Mafia Roleblocker
  1x Mafia 1-Shot Vigilante
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set C

• 1x Doctor
  1x Town Tracker
  1x Town Vigilante
  10x Vanilla Town
  1x Mafia Role Cop
  1x Mafia Jailkeeper
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set D

• 2x Town Masons
  1x Town Bodyguard
  1x Town Tracker
  9x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x Mafia Ninja
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set E

• 1x 2-Shot Town Jailkeeper
  1x Town Cop w/ Night 0 town check
  11x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x Mafia Roleblocker
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set F

• 1x Town Even Night Vigilante
  1x Town Jailkeeper
  11x Vanilla Town
  1x Mafia Jack-of-all-Trades
  3x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set 1

• 1x Town Even Night Vigilante
  1x Town Jailkeeper
  11x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x Mafia Role Cop
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set 3

• 1x 1-Shot Bulletproof Town
  2x Town Masons
  1x Town Tracker
  9x Vanilla Town
  1x Mafia Jack-of-all-Trades
  3x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set 4

• 1x Town Vigilante
  1x Town Bodyguard
  1x 2-Shot Town Jailkeeper
  10x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Bulletproof
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set 5

• 1x Town Cop w/ night 0 check
  1x Town Jailkeeper
  11x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x Mafia Jailkeeper
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

I realize this doesn't narrow it down a ton, but we can rule out Scenarios B, 2, and 6 because none of those contain a vig.

You missed C. The possible setups now are C, F, 1, 4.

C, F, 1, 4,

C: Mafia Role Cop + Mafia Jailkeeper vs Town Doctor + Town Tracker + Town Vig
F: Mafia JOAT vs Town Even Night Vigi + Town Jailkeeper
1: Mafia Role Cop + 1-Shot Mafia Vig vs Town Jailkeeper + Town Even Night Vig
4: 1-shot Mafia Vig + 1-shot Mafia BP vs Town Vig + Town BG + 2-shot Town Jailkeeper

Marco wrote:Okay, first up, why are you voting Matt?

Sloonei dropped his vote off of Frog which resulted in Frog and IAWY tied at Day 1 end. Bussing is one thing but this makes absolutely no sense. He had been stating Frog as his scum-read throughout. Why jump off and jeopardise your own teammate (IAWY)?

In fact Sloonei actually switched from Frog to IAWY. That said, when Sloonei jumped off Frog to IAWY, Frog was leading (according to the vote numbers on the Poll).

Is there any way to Ctrl + F votes? On my home board, we vote inside [ ], like [VOTE: , so it's easy to Ctrl + F "[VOTE ". Any way to do the same with the vote format we're using?] aubergine

Soneji, since you're here, I want to get some live 1-1 about the Day 1 Vote. Gonna try and get a timeline vote count done, but what do you think about the Sloonei (Matt) points I stated till now?

Alright, so let's get the rest of the- oh look, a man in a black hoody holding a scythe, that's odd, I wonder if-...

Good luck, town!

Nice playing with you all!

I am not here in a way that I can interact much. I would say that its a fair point that as IAWY flipped scum, it wouldn't make sense for a mafia Sloonei to switch from Frog to his teammate. There was a lot of vote switching near the end though, some of which were not counted as they weren't made in-thread as well.

Soneji wrote:I am not here in a way that I can interact much. I would say that its a fair point that as IAWY flipped scum, it wouldn't make sense for a mafia Sloonei to switch from Frog to his teammate. There was a lot of vote switching near the end though, some of which were not counted as they weren't made in-thread as well.

If it wasn't recorded in the thread, it won't count any way. Also, I don't think the haphazard vote switching can account for Scum!Sloonei taking vote off his claimed scum-read and putting it on his own teammate when said teammate was extremely likely to be lynched.

It is something important to note though in general. If mafia knew that votes wouldn't be counted if not in-thread, they could have abused that to throw off civilians ability to know the correct vote count, as well as make it look like they voted someone when they actually didn't.

Oh look. I can talk again.

Golden or MP probably bussed IAWY. I could vote for either.

Soneji wrote:It is something important to note though in general. If mafia knew that votes wouldn't be counted if not in-thread, they could have abused that to throw off civilians ability to know the correct vote count, as well as make it look like they voted someone when they actually didn't.

While true, I do believe that would be against the spirit of the rules, and I'd like to think no-one on this player list would do something like that.

Actually, I won't be able to look into the vote history for at least another 12 hours. If someone else is interested, please go ahead.

ika wrote:Well..... not much has change about my thoughts

still willign to get sig/MP

Getting scared that we got your buddy? So y'all are trying to mudsling me.

I think Marco makes a good point, about sloonie. However, I don't like how quickly MM jumped on voting for matt

Dyslexicon wrote:Alright, so let's get the rest of the- oh look, a man in a black hoody holding a scythe, that's odd, I wonder if-...

Good luck, town!

Nice playing with you all!

It was fun Dizzy hope to see you again soon!

Change of plans. I got way more studying done this morning than I thought I would.

Marco wrote:Okay, first up, why are you voting Matt?

Sloonei dropped his vote off of Frog which resulted in Frog and IAWY tied at Day 1 end. Bussing is one thing but this makes absolutely no sense. He had been stating Frog as his scum-read throughout. Why jump off and jeopardise your own teammate (IAWY)?

He is still one of my top suspects.

Marco wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Now we're looking at the only possible scenarios of F, 1, and 4.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Based on last night's kill, here are the possible setups.

Spoiler: show

Set A

• 1x Town Jailkeeper
  1x 1-Shot Bulletproof Town
  1x Town Innocent Child
  10x Vanilla Town
  1x Mafia Roleblocker
  1x Mafia 1-Shot Vigilante
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set C

• 1x Doctor
  1x Town Tracker
  1x Town Vigilante
  10x Vanilla Town
  1x Mafia Role Cop
  1x Mafia Jailkeeper
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set D

• 2x Town Masons
  1x Town Bodyguard
  1x Town Tracker
  9x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x Mafia Ninja
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set E

• 1x 2-Shot Town Jailkeeper
  1x Town Cop w/ Night 0 town check
  11x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x Mafia Roleblocker
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set F

• 1x Town Even Night Vigilante
  1x Town Jailkeeper
  11x Vanilla Town
  1x Mafia Jack-of-all-Trades
  3x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set 1

• 1x Town Even Night Vigilante
  1x Town Jailkeeper
  11x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x Mafia Role Cop
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set 3

• 1x 1-Shot Bulletproof Town
  2x Town Masons
  1x Town Tracker
  9x Vanilla Town
  1x Mafia Jack-of-all-Trades
  3x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set 4

• 1x Town Vigilante
  1x Town Bodyguard
  1x 2-Shot Town Jailkeeper
  10x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Bulletproof
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

Set 5

• 1x Town Cop w/ night 0 check
  1x Town Jailkeeper
  11x Vanilla Town
  1x 1-Shot Mafia Vigilante
  1x Mafia Jailkeeper
  2x Vanilla Mafia Goon

I realize this doesn't narrow it down a ton, but we can rule out Scenarios B, 2, and 6 because none of those contain a vig.

You missed C. The possible setups now are C, F, 1, 4.

C, F, 1, 4,

C: Mafia Role Cop + Mafia Jailkeeper vs Town Doctor + Town Tracker + Town Vig
F: Mafia JOAT vs Town Even Night Vigi + Town Jailkeeper
1: Mafia Role Cop + 1-Shot Mafia Vig vs Town Jailkeeper + Town Even Night Vig
4: 1-shot Mafia Vig + 1-shot Mafia BP vs Town Vig + Town BG + 2-shot Town Jailkeeper

Thanks for checking that. I was posting from my phone at the time, so I apologize for missing that.

sig wrote:

ika wrote:Well..... not much has change about my thoughts

still willign to get sig/MP

Getting scared that we got your buddy? So y'all are trying to mudsling me.

I think Marco makes a good point, about sloonie. However, I don't like how quickly MM jumped on voting for matt

Why not?

@MM, He is your top suspect knowing that he switched off Frog to IAWY Day 1 lynch?

Marco wrote:@MM, He is your top suspect knowing that he switched off Frog to IAWY Day 1 lynch?

He is one of my top suspects, and that is without looking back over previous events with the knowledge that IAWY is scum.

I do know he made that vote switch, but I don't remember there being any context behind it. I'll look into it.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

sig wrote:

ika wrote:Well..... not much has change about my thoughts

still willign to get sig/MP

Getting scared that we got your buddy? So y'all are trying to mudsling me.

I think Marco makes a good point, about sloonie. However, I don't like how quickly MM jumped on voting for matt

Why not?

Since I still think you're mafia. :P

Though I'm starting to think I might be a little bit tunnely.

Here is my Day 3 Rainbow list. I meant to post one at the end of Day 2, and I apologize for not doing that though I had promised.


Soneji
MovingPictures07
Marco
a2thezebra
ika
Golden
Psittaciform
sig
DrWilgy
Sloonei

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Marco wrote:@MM, He is your top suspect knowing that he switched off Frog to IAWY Day 1 lynch?

He is one of my top suspects, and that is without looking back over previous events with the knowledge that IAWY is scum.

I do know he made that vote switch, but I don't remember there being any context behind it. I'll look into it.

His reason for changing the vote was that Frog had value to the game alive (he scum-read Frog but he admitted he hadn't read anything past the first dozen pages). Regardless, why would scum vote for their own partner in such a scenario?

@Marco sorry I can't help you with that.

Okay so Day 1 votes.(I think)

Frog
5 votes
Soneji (13), Epignosis (14), Golden (15), Metalmarsh89 (16), Dyslexicon (17) 24%


Inawordyes
5 votes
MovingPictures07 (9), Silverwolf (10), Sloonei (18),Frog (19), ika (21) 24%

Metalmarsh89
4
sig (8), Marco (11), a2thezebra (12), DrWilgy (20) 19%

Psittacitform
1
Zexy (6) 5%

Sloonei
1
Long Con (2) 5%

Inawordyes (5) 5%
Zexy

Day 2

DrWilgy
2
Matt (9), Metalmarsh89 (18) 11%
Golden
1
DrWilgy (5) 6%
Inawordyes
6
MovingPictures07 (3), Soneji (10), sig (11), Marco (12), ika (15), Golden (16) 33%
sig
1
Inawordyes (14) 6%
Soneji
1
Dyslexicon (17) 6%
Zexy
1
a2thezebra (13) 6%

Marco wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Marco wrote:@MM, He is your top suspect knowing that he switched off Frog to IAWY Day 1 lynch?

He is one of my top suspects, and that is without looking back over previous events with the knowledge that IAWY is scum.

I do know he made that vote switch, but I don't remember there being any context behind it. I'll look into it.

His reason for changing the vote was that Frog had value to the game alive (he scum-read Frog but he admitted he hadn't read anything past the first dozen pages). Regardless, why would scum vote for their own partner in such a scenario?

I don't know the full scenario at this moment. I do know that I had a few votes, but IAWY and Frog also had several votes apiece and I believe they were ahead of me at the time.

Why did Sloonei say he was voting for IAWY?

Okay eww that looks horribly but shh. Also Sloonie/Matt looks really bad coming out of this. Golden isn't looking to good pushing Frog over IWAY. Neither does MM, he didn't vote for IWAY until necessary then suddenly a new CFD on Frog forms away from both, and MM switches.

I think we caught the scum team and they overextended themselves.

sig wrote:Okay eww that looks horribly but shh. Also Sloonie/Matt looks really bad coming out of this. Golden isn't looking to good pushing Frog over IWAY. Neither does MM, he didn't vote for IWAY until necessary then suddenly a new CFD on Frog forms away from both, and MM switches.

I think we caught the scum team and they overextended themselves.

I was being cautious with my vote on Day 1 because I wanted to make sure that I was not part of a tie in the lynch. As for the end of Day 2, I know it might look bad that I didn't finish the day with my vote on IAWY, but my goal was to put a little bit of pressure on other players at the end of the day.

Marco said he couldn't analyze all of the vote switches now, so I'll see what I can scrounge up.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

sig wrote:Okay eww that looks horribly but shh. Also Sloonie/Matt looks really bad coming out of this. Golden isn't looking to good pushing Frog over IWAY. Neither does MM, he didn't vote for IWAY until necessary then suddenly a new CFD on Frog forms away from both, and MM switches.

I think we caught the scum team and they overextended themselves.

I was being cautious with my vote on Day 1 because I wanted to make sure that I was not part of a tie in the lynch. As for the end of Day 2, I know it might look bad that I didn't finish the day with my vote on IAWY, but my goal was to put a little bit of pressure on other players at the end of the day.

Marco said he couldn't analyze all of the vote switches now, so I'll see what I can scrounge up.

Yes, but then you switched from IWAY to Frog, if you hadn't IWAY would've been one ahead of Frog and two ahead of you, so you switching your vote makes no sense. I think you and IWAY were teammates and you were trying not to vote a teammate out.

VOTE METALMARSH89

I'm definitely good with pushing MM.

VOTE METALMARSH89

Push away dear chaps! I'm down for another exciting day.

What's your response to sig's last post? By pressuring you, I am hoping for VCA fypov to explain your vote switch day 1.

Ok, here are all of the votes made within the last 12 hours of Day 1.

Based on the votes submitted in the thread, the tally does not accurately indicate the final vote total. DrWilgy never posted his vote. Frog didn't submit his final vote, and ika didn't change his vote in the poll. Perhaps Jay (or someone else) can clarify this, but the final tally should be either 6-3 or 5-4 Frog over IAWY, depending on how Jay counted ika's final vote.

Marco wrote:What's your response to sig's last post? By pressuring you, I am hoping for VCA fypov to explain your vote switch day 1.

What's VCA fypov? (from your point of view?)

I explained it. I said I was being cautious on Day 1, because I did not want to get myself caught in a tie. I didn't want to risk being lynched.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:QUESTION FOR JAY: - At the end of Day 1, ika posted in the thread but did not move his vote in the poll. Which vote counts? Also DrWilgy and Frog moved their votes in the poll, but did not post those changes. Did those votes count?

I started with the poll tally as it appeared (a tie) and flipped a coin. The coin called for a Frog lynch. I then double-checked the votes, and since only votes cast both in the thread and in the poll are counted, a Frog lynch was verified anyway without a tie. Votes cast in the thread but not the poll do not count. Votes cast in the poll but not the thread do not count.

Ha, Zebra thinks there's a pattern.

DrWilgy wrote:Ha, Zebra thinks there's a pattern.

Ha, you think there isn't.

Also, VOTE METALMARSH89

Marco wrote:I'm definitely good with pushing MM.

VOTE METALMARSH89

You don't seem to have actually voted.

@zebra, my bad.

a2thezebra wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:Ha, Zebra thinks there's a pattern.

Ha, you think there isn't.

Good luck with that my friend

Here is another updated list with the poll tally at each break. Players marked in green are flipped civilians, and players (IAWY) marked in red are confirmed scum.

Additionally, ika's final vote was removed because it didn't count.

Marco wrote:@zebra, my bad.

No problem, I was just wondering if it was deliberate.

DrWilgy wrote:

a2thezebra wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:Ha, Zebra thinks there's a pattern.

Ha, you think there isn't.

Good luck with that my friend

Thanks MM!