The Syndicate

Marco wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Marco wrote:@MM, He is your top suspect knowing that he switched off Frog to IAWY Day 1 lynch?

He is one of my top suspects, and that is without looking back over previous events with the knowledge that IAWY is scum.

I do know he made that vote switch, but I don't remember there being any context behind it. I'll look into it.

His reason for changing the vote was that Frog had value to the game alive (he scum-read Frog but he admitted he hadn't read anything past the first dozen pages). Regardless, why would scum vote for their own partner in such a scenario?

Alright, let's look a little further into Sloonei's posts at the end of the day.


Early Day 1: Sloonei states here he has never played with Frog. I don't understand where he came to the conclusion that Frog would be more valuable than IAWY, but Sloonei doesn't seem to know Frog. Point against him for Sloonei's final post of the game before Matt replaced him.
Late Day 1: This is Sloonei's first mention of inawordyes aside from the above quoted post. Sloonei asks what IAWY did 18 minutes before the day ended.
4 minutes later: Silverwolf responds to Sloonei, and he goes and has a look at IAWY.
5 minutes later: Sloonei comes up with 2 posts from IAWY that he finds suspcious. In under 10 minutes Sloonei went from no knowledge of IAWY to this. What do you think?
5 minutes later (4 minutes til deadline): Sloonei emphasizes why Frog is his top lynch candidate. What I don't understand is why Sloonei went from this post to a vote for IAWY 2 minutes later,
This doesn't seem like a logical progression, which is what I would expect from Sloonei. Why did back up his Frog vote 4 minutes before the deadline, only to switch his vote to IAWY and back out of that opinion at the very last second?

a2thezebra wrote:Thanks MM!

No problem! I expect you to do something with it. If you wish anyway.

@mm, that makes sense to me. He felt like frog and IAWY were scummy. Frog was his prime candidate but he decided frog had more value than IAWY.

I'm not sure why you don't understand how frog had more value. I've never played with either of them before but just going by post count, activity, and contribution, town!Frog had a lot more value than town!IAWY.

MM - You should vote for me for something I did, so I can like...defend against it or something haha.

I cannot believe those dastardly mafia folk killed Zexy AND Dyslexi!

VOTE DRWILGY

From the actual votes, one can make an argument that Sloonei switched from frog to IAWY to distance himself from IAWY for the future. But at that time, during EOD, with minutes to go, people were using the polls to keep track of the votes. I don't think Sloonei would've known his vote would not do anything. Especially, since he has no reason to believe someone else wouldn't vote IAWY suddenly.

Well darn. That wasn't great. I trusted Dizzy and Zexy.

I wrote down a list (unfortunately I left it at work) of where I felt IAWY's flip left everyone. It definitely leaves me with sloonei/matt and ika both seeming worse for it. Zebra looks worse too, and I actually thought Dizzy looked a little worse.

VOTE MATT

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I also won't be around much until this evening, but I wanted to see the results.

Ninja'd ya MP.


Just a note. There are 6 people dead and only 1 of them was a Syndicate regular. Someone's got it out for the new people.

I'm calling silver a regular now. I think she is.

Golden, if you are a baddie, you're doing a terrific job.

If you're civ, then obviously this Mafia scrimmage is being wasted on you. Tsk tsk.

Marco wrote:Okay, first up, why are you voting Matt?

Sloonei dropped his vote off of Frog which resulted in Frog and IAWY tied at Day 1 end. Bussing is one thing but this makes absolutely no sense. He had been stating Frog as his scum-read throughout. Why jump off and jeopardise your own teammate (IAWY)?

For cred. From the moment sloonei did that, I thought it made him look good either way. It's what I was saying right back at the start of yesterday.

Just look at your own reaction.... you can't see sloonei as bad for it. This is exactly what makes it a great move. Even more so given IAWY sort of seemed absent and even more so if IAWY was already being bussed by another teammate...

Marco wrote:And I have to bring this up.

Marco wrote:If IAWY flips scum, wouldn't look good for Golden.

I'm forgetting what exactly led me to say that, it was something to do with the exact vote switch pattern. I'll try to go back and create a vote timeline to see if there was actually some merit in what I said.

There wasn't. You had missed the fact I'd created the vote train on IAWY in the first place, and that I was always entirely comfortable with either IAWY or Frog going.

Marco wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Marco wrote:@MM, He is your top suspect knowing that he switched off Frog to IAWY Day 1 lynch?

He is one of my top suspects, and that is without looking back over previous events with the knowledge that IAWY is scum.

I do know he made that vote switch, but I don't remember there being any context behind it. I'll look into it.

His reason for changing the vote was that Frog had value to the game alive (he scum-read Frog but he admitted he hadn't read anything past the first dozen pages). Regardless, why would scum vote for their own partner in such a scenario?

Boy, I'm just going to say. If I was scum, my go to move would snow you completely. Thats EXACTLY when you should bus someone. When it gets the most cred.

I shouldn't be here.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I also won't be around much until this evening, but I wanted to see the results.

Ninja'd ya MP.


Just a note. There are 6 people dead and only 1 of them was a Syndicate regular. Someone's got it out for the new people.

Well, there's evidently more than one killer now, so at least one person has it out for the new people.

Then go study!

I can see a world in which you guys are right about MM too.

Marco wrote:Okay, first up, why are you voting Matt?

Sloonei dropped his vote off of Frog which resulted in Frog and IAWY tied at Day 1 end. Bussing is one thing but this makes absolutely no sense. He had been stating Frog as his scum-read throughout. Why jump off and jeopardise your own teammate (IAWY)?

I recall Sloonei's posts on the matter being a bit vague though. Someone needs to look at that if it hasn't been done already. It's part of the reason I'm not going to vote anyone until I've examined both the votes themselves and the accompanying posts / teammate interactions.

Golden wrote:Then go study!

I can see a world in which you guys are right about MM too.

Yeah, I should. I'll force myself away by 3:00 Central time, so about a half hour. That seems fair.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:QUESTION FOR JAY: - At the end of Day 1, ika posted in the thread but did not move his vote in the poll. Which vote counts? Also DrWilgy and Frog moved their votes in the poll, but did not post those changes. Did those votes count?

In hindsight, this actually makes ika's vote look worse than slooneis.

Marco wrote:And I have to bring this up.

Marco wrote:If IAWY flips scum, wouldn't look good for Golden.

I'm forgetting what exactly led me to say that, it was something to do with the exact vote switch pattern. I'll try to go back and create a vote timeline to see if there was actually some merit in what I said.

VOTE TIMELINE. Yes. I'll start it tomorrow afternoon it's not done by then, but I'd rather do teammate analysis. Let's split the load here, players.

DrWilgy wrote:Oh look. I can talk again.

Golden or MP probably bussed IAWY. I could vote for either.

But why?

You're ikaing me. Stop it.

Marco wrote:

Soneji wrote:It is something important to note though in general. If mafia knew that votes wouldn't be counted if not in-thread, they could have abused that to throw off civilians ability to know the correct vote count, as well as make it look like they voted someone when they actually didn't.

While true, I do believe that would be against the spirit of the rules, and I'd like to think no-one on this player list would do something like that.

QFT

Marco wrote:@mm, that makes sense to me. He felt like frog and IAWY were scummy. Frog was his prime candidate but he decided frog had more value than IAWY.

I'm not sure why you don't understand how frog had more value. I've never played with either of them before but just going by post count, activity, and contribution, town!Frog had a lot more value than town!IAWY.

I've never seen sloonei shift a vote on the basis of 'value'.

Besides, frog wasn't demonstrating 'value', he was just demonstrating 'volume', which are two different things. I might understand it if it was someone like Jay, or frankly even if it was you - but anyone who genuinely suspected Frog could see that he had stopped adding value about 12 hours into the game.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Change of plans. I got way more studying done this morning than I thought I would.

Lol, I wish I could say that.

Btw... this is the sucky thing about a locked thread... you can't react in the moment.

Great lynch everyone!

@golden, I know a bus like that would make one look good. But it seems unnecessary.

Your basically saying that as scum who has his vote on his teammate's counter wagon, you would lynch your own teammate at the last minute for town cred?

I can understand a fresh vote but he had already placed his vote and given his reason.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Here is my Day 3 Rainbow list. I meant to post one at the end of Day 2, and I apologize for not doing that though I had promised.


Soneji
MovingPictures07
Marco
a2thezebra
ika
Golden
Psittaciform
sig
DrWilgy
Sloonei

Is this just town/null/mafia, or is it slight town/null/slight mafia, or something else?

Are they ordered within groups?

Why do you feel null about zebra, ika, and Golden?

sig wrote:Okay eww that looks horribly but shh. Also Sloonie/Matt looks really bad coming out of this. Golden isn't looking to good pushing Frog over IWAY. Neither does MM, he didn't vote for IWAY until necessary then suddenly a new CFD on Frog forms away from both, and MM switches.

I think we caught the scum team and they overextended themselves.

I'd be hesitant to come to such sweeping/confident conclusions. It's what lost the town the game in Turf Wars.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

sig wrote:Okay eww that looks horribly but shh. Also Sloonie/Matt looks really bad coming out of this. Golden isn't looking to good pushing Frog over IWAY. Neither does MM, he didn't vote for IWAY until necessary then suddenly a new CFD on Frog forms away from both, and MM switches.

I think we caught the scum team and they overextended themselves.

I was being cautious with my vote on Day 1 because I wanted to make sure that I was not part of a tie in the lynch. As for the end of Day 2, I know it might look bad that I didn't finish the day with my vote on IAWY, but my goal was to put a little bit of pressure on other players at the end of the day.

Marco said he couldn't analyze all of the vote switches now, so I'll see what I can scrounge up.

What was the point of this exactly? I was there, and during that entire stretch of EoD it seemed to me that no one had any serious chance of being lynched other than IAWY. I don't think there was any real pressure to anyone else.

Golden wrote:

Marco wrote:@mm, that makes sense to me. He felt like frog and IAWY were scummy. Frog was his prime candidate but he decided frog had more value than IAWY.

I'm not sure why you don't understand how frog had more value. I've never played with either of them before but just going by post count, activity, and contribution, town!Frog had a lot more value than town!IAWY.

I've never seen sloonei shift a vote on the basis of 'value'.

Besides, frog wasn't demonstrating 'value', he was just demonstrating 'volume', which are two different things. I might understand it if it was someone like Jay, or frankly even if it was you - but anyone who genuinely suspected Frog could see that he had stopped adding value about 12 hours into the game.

You have a narrow minded view of value. Disregarding the actual content of his posts, we all knew he would be one of the most active players in the game. Just by virtue of that you can be sure you'll get more interactions with him alive.

Also, frog had already stated his reason multiple times for not contributing in the latter part of day 1. While I disagree for his reason, he has already told us he would be back to his early game activity by day 2.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Ok, here are all of the votes made within the last 12 hours of Day 1.

Spoiler: show

12 hours until deadline

sig votes a2thezebra - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Sloonei - Link
a2thezebra votes a2thezebra - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Sloonei - Link

6 hours until deadline

Golden votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
a2thezebra votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
sig votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
MovingPictures07 votes Inawordyes - Link
Dyslexicon votes a2thezebra- Link
Golden votes Inawordyes - Link
Silverwolf votes Inawordyes - Link
ika votes Inawordyes - Link

3 hours until deadline

Metalmarsh89 votes Frog - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Sloonei - Link
a2thezebra votes Silverwolf - Link
Epignosis votes Frog - Link
Marco votes Metalmarsh89 - Link

2 hours until deadline

Soneji votes Frog - Link
a2thezebra votes Metalmarsh89- Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Inawordyes - Link
Sloonei votes Frog - Link

1 hour until deadline

30 minutes until deadline

Epignosis votes Frog - Link
Golden votes Frog - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Frog - Link

10 minutes until deadline

Dyslexicon votes Frog - Link
Sloonei votes Inawordyes - Link
ika votes Frog - Link

Based on the votes submitted in the thread, the tally does not accurately indicate the final vote total. DrWilgy never posted his vote. Frog didn't submit his final vote, and ika didn't change his vote in the poll. Perhaps Jay (or someone else) can clarify this, but the final tally should be either 6-3 or 5-4 Frog over IAWY, depending on how Jay counted ika's final vote.

This is glorious. Any way you can do this for Day 2?

DrWilgy wrote:Ha, Zebra thinks there's a pattern.

What is this in response to?

Why are you not explaining your reads or teammate configurations?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Here is another updated list with the poll tally at each break. Players marked in green are flipped civilians, and players (IAWY) marked in red are confirmed scum.

Additionally, ika's final vote was removed because it didn't count.

Spoiler: show

Initial Tally at the T-12 hour mark.

• 3 - a2thezebra (Sloonei, Golden, Silverwolf)
  3 - Golden (sig, Dyslexicon, DrWilgy)
  2 - Psittaciform (Metalmarsh89, Zexy)
  1 - Soneji (Inawordyes)
  1 - Sloonei (Long Con)
  
  7 - Unvote/No Vote (a2thezebra, Frog, ika, Marco, MovingPictures07, Soneji, Psittaciform)

12 hours until deadline

sig votes a2thezebra - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Sloonei - Link
a2thezebra votes a2thezebra - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Sloonei - Link

• 5 - a2thezebra (Sloonei, Golden, Silverwolf, sig, a2thezebra)
  2 - Sloonei (Long Con, Metalmarsh89)
  2 - Golden (Dyslexicon, DrWilgy)
  1 - Psittaciform (Zexy)
  1 - Soneji (Inawordyes)
  
  6 - Unvote/No Vote (Frog, ika, Marco, MovingPictures07, Soneji, Psittaciform)

6 hours until deadline

Golden votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
a2thezebra votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
sig votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
MovingPictures07 votes Inawordyes - Link
Dyslexicon votes a2thezebra- Link
Golden votes Inawordyes - Link
Silverwolf votes Inawordyes - Link
ika votes Inawordyes - Link

• 4 - Inawordyes (MovingPictures07, Golden, Silverwolf, ika)
  2 - a2thezebra (Sloonei, Dyslexicon)
  2 - Metalmarsh89 (a2thezebra, sig)
  2 - Sloonei (Long Con, Metalmarsh89)
  1 - Golden (DrWilgy)
  1 - Psittaciform (Zexy)
  1 - Soneji (Inawordyes)
  
  4 - Unvote/No Vote (Frog, Marco, Soneji, Psittaciform)

3 hours until deadline

Metalmarsh89 votes Frog - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Sloonei - Link
a2thezebra votes Silverwolf - Link
Epignosis votes Frog - Link
Marco votes Metalmarsh89 - Link

• 4 - Inawordyes (MovingPictures07, Golden, Silverwolf, ika)
  2 - Metalmarsh89 (sig, Marco)
  2 - a2thezebra (Sloonei, Dyslexicon)
  1 - Frog (Epignosis)
  1 - Sloonei (Metalmarsh89)
  1 - Silverwolf (a2thezebra)
  1 - Golden (DrWilgy)
  1 - Psittaciform (Zexy)
  1 - Soneji (Inawordyes)
  
  3 - Unvote/No Vote (Frog, Soneji, Psittaciform)

2 hours until deadline

Soneji votes Frog - Link
a2thezebra votes Metalmarsh89- Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Inawordyes - Link
Sloonei votes Frog - Link

• 5- Inawordyes (MovingPictures07, Golden, Silverwolf, ika, Metalmarsh89)
  3 - Frog (Epignosis, Soneji, Sloonei)
  2 - Metalmarsh89 (sig, Marco)
  1 - a2thezebra (Dyslexicon)
  1 - Silverwolf (a2thezebra)
  1 - Golden (DrWilgy)
  1 - Psittaciform (Zexy)
  1 - Soneji (Inawordyes)
  
  2 - Unvote/No Vote (Frog, Psittaciform)

1 hour until deadline

• No Changes

30 minutes until deadline

Epignosis votes Frog - Link
Golden votes Frog - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Frog - Link

• 5 - Frog (Soneji, Sloonei, Epignosis, Golden, Metalmarsh89)
  3 - Inawordyes (MovingPictures07, Silverwolf, ika)
  2 - Metalmarsh89 (sig, Marco)
  1 - a2thezebra (Dyslexicon)
  1 - Silverwolf (a2thezebra)
  1 - Golden (DrWilgy)
  1 - Psittaciform (Zexy)
  1 - Soneji (Inawordyes)
  
  2 - Unvote/No Vote (Frog, Psittaciform)

10 minutes until deadline

Dyslexicon votes Frog - Link
Sloonei votes Inawordyes - Link

Day 1 Final Tally

• 5 - Frog (Soneji, Epignosis, Golden, Metalmarsh89, Dyslexicon)
  4 - Inawordyes (MovingPictures07, Silverwolf, ika, Sloonei)
  2 - Metalmarsh89 (sig, Marco)
  1 - Silverwolf (a2thezebra)
  1 - Golden (DrWilgy)
  1 - Psittaciform (Zexy)
  1 - Soneji (Inawordyes)
  
  2 - Unvote/No Vote (Frog, Psittaciform)

This is even better. You're the marmot. Since I'm leaving in 15 minutes, I'll be combing over this either tonight if I feel I've made sufficient progress re: studying or tomorrow after the exam.

Marco wrote:@golden, I know a bus like that would make one look good. But it seems unnecessary.

Your basically saying that as scum who has his vote on his teammate's counter wagon, you would lynch your own teammate at the last minute for town cred?

I can understand a fresh vote but he had already placed his vote and given his reason.

You are basically town clearing him on it. This is the definition of necessary.

IAWY appeared absent, a good mark.

Yes - this is the kind of cutthroat thing I would absolutely do, and I think sloonei would as well. It's also why I say mechanical statements like Frog's for finding scum are easy to beat.

Doesn't that vote from sloonei look like perfect knowledge to you? Frog was his top town suspect, but suddenly with little time to give anyone to react he is talking of Frog's value? That makes no sense to me. If someone is your top scum suspect, you don't keep them around because they might 'add value' if you are wrong. If he had expressed an equal scum read on each of them, I can understand picking for value. But he hadn't. IAWY was a 'fresh vote' for sloonei in the sense that I have no recollection of him ever looking in that direction (I'd need to check that up)... I know thats not what you meant fresh vote to mean.

I just really don't buy that vote. I didn't from the start. Town sloonei might jump around, but I've not seen him suddenly get cold feet on a wagon and shift to one he wasn't talking about last second.

Marco wrote:

Golden wrote:

Marco wrote:@mm, that makes sense to me. He felt like frog and IAWY were scummy. Frog was his prime candidate but he decided frog had more value than IAWY.

I'm not sure why you don't understand how frog had more value. I've never played with either of them before but just going by post count, activity, and contribution, town!Frog had a lot more value than town!IAWY.

I've never seen sloonei shift a vote on the basis of 'value'.

Besides, frog wasn't demonstrating 'value', he was just demonstrating 'volume', which are two different things. I might understand it if it was someone like Jay, or frankly even if it was you - but anyone who genuinely suspected Frog could see that he had stopped adding value about 12 hours into the game.

You have a narrow minded view of value. Disregarding the actual content of his posts, we all knew he would be one of the most active players in the game. Just by virtue of that you can be sure you'll get more interactions with him alive.

Also, frog had already stated his reason multiple times for not contributing in the latter part of day 1. While I disagree for his reason, he has already told us he would be back to his early game activity by day 2.

OK, sure, but I think you are being fooled by the fact that the concept of keeping someone alive by value works and makes sense in your community, but it is bizarre here. I've literally never seen sloonei do something like that.

I'm just saying - for me, it looked like a massive cred grab that he couldn't lose either way. Why not burn a vanilla teammate who isn't even participating much for a cred grab?

I can be persuaded, though, Marco... I'm not saying I'm set on it.

Just that I don't think you should put so much emphasis on how good that vote looks. Maybe I don't like it enough, but I think you like it too much.

Okay, so Sloonei looks bad.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Marco wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Marco wrote:@MM, He is your top suspect knowing that he switched off Frog to IAWY Day 1 lynch?

He is one of my top suspects, and that is without looking back over previous events with the knowledge that IAWY is scum.

I do know he made that vote switch, but I don't remember there being any context behind it. I'll look into it.

His reason for changing the vote was that Frog had value to the game alive (he scum-read Frog but he admitted he hadn't read anything past the first dozen pages). Regardless, why would scum vote for their own partner in such a scenario?

Alright, let's look a little further into Sloonei's posts at the end of the day.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei wrote:

Dyslexicon wrote:I don't have an overview over who knows who, who's from here and how familiar this type of setup is to people, and I'd really like to have that.

So I'll just state that:
- I've played a couple of games with PSI.
- I'm not from here (but I really like the site *buddies everyone)
- I consider this setup pretty standard.

And if other would like to share that would be appreciated.

I like this.

- I'm a fairly regular member of the Syndicate community and have played with most of the players in this game, but this is not my "home" site.
- Players I've not played with before are: Dyslexicon, Frog, Inawordyes, Marco, Psittacitform, Zexy.
- Played exactly 1 game with each of Ika, Soneji, Silverwolf
- I've never played a semi-open setup before, and I've not heavily played in games with role claiming in years, and even when I did I was never big on doing it.
- I'll be playing in the Champs tournament next month, can't wait to see you other dudes there, whoever you are.

Early Day 1: Sloonei states here he has never played with Frog. I don't understand where he came to the conclusion that Frog would be more valuable than IAWY, but Sloonei doesn't seem to know Frog. Point against him for Sloonei's final post of the game before Matt replaced him.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei wrote:what did inawordyes do?

Late Day 1: This is Sloonei's first mention of inawordyes aside from the above quoted post. Sloonei asks what IAWY did 18 minutes before the day ended.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei wrote:

Silverwolf wrote:

Sloonei wrote:what did inawordyes do?

He's got a meta of being a strong town player but came in and vote parked Soneji who hadn't posted anything, and shows a distinct lack of curiosity about the game or doing any scumhunting or game solving, has said he's not gonna do anything, and has had a very nervous tone to his posts. This is preferable to a Metalmarsh lynch to me and let's be honest, it looks like it's gonna be one of those.

I'll have a look.

4 minutes later: Silverwolf responds to Sloonei, and he goes and has a look at IAWY.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei wrote:

Inawordyes wrote:

Marco wrote:Thanks. That's perfect.

Unvote

Ooh, okay. So I'm gonna go ahead and poke Frog since I know him from MU games. Heyo! How are you? WHY ARE YOU MAFIA?!?!? *cough* Ahem,I mean, "would it possible in any sort of context unique to both this world and any potential alternate realities that you could inform our inquiring minds just as to the current state of this fine game as perceived from your self and, potentially, a hint as to the true nature of where your alignments lie, to which you could also potentially be lying to us with a bold face and would need to understandably be punished?


VOTE FROG

This feels like an overeager attempt to make their presence felt in the game early.

Inawordyes wrote:

Frog wrote:

Zexy wrote:So, sig: what is TS? What do you think of Sloonei’s push on you? You defended, but what does that mean in regards to his alignment?

I disagree on the fake claiming part because in MU there actually a power role cover system where everybody claims all the roles so that the real ones get to “naturally” throw their real results in without standing out too much. And others fakeclaim to draw NKs.

Zexy is towny as flip.

Zexy + Sig = Town

Marco + Sloonei = scum teamish - On page 2 Marco randomly defends Sloonei. Lol. Obv slip is obvious.

The biggest test of a baddie team claim is if one of them would still be scummy enough to be a baddie if you lynch the other and they flip goodie. It sounds like Marco would fail that test if you only think he's a baddie for defending Sloonei, so I'm inclined to think that would make him a goodie.

The logic probably doesn't hold though haha, and that's fine!

And this post just seems like a weak assessment with a batch of waffles at the bottom.

5 minutes later: Sloonei comes up with 2 posts from IAWY that he finds suspcious. In under 10 minutes Sloonei went from no knowledge of IAWY to this. What do you think?

Spoiler: show

Sloonei wrote:

Frog wrote:To the people seriously voting me,

My early game was aggro across the board for reaction testing. I answered everyone's questions early game 0_o

I identified town reads by fighting with them and seeing how they react.

I was the first to post a full rainbow list.

I suggested the gamed strategy of hypoclaiming.

I suggested the strategy to straddle the slankers on wagons.

I've developed and drove content and strategies with a mountain of posts.

Anyone towns seriously voting me need to reevaluate their play.

The last 3 points are why I think you are a valid candidate. You've loaded the thread with posts and produced a lot of content (thanks) but then come out of it saying we should lynch someone who's not providing content? Then what was the point of this whole day?
Ditto re: point 2.
And point 3, you are again just making a blunt statement that the suspicions against you are wrong without a full response. Just "no you're wrong" and nothing else. That does not look good.

5 minutes later (4 minutes til deadline): Sloonei emphasizes why Frog is his top lynch candidate. What I don't understand is why Sloonei went from this post to a vote for IAWY 2 minutes later,

Spoiler: show

Sloonei wrote:VOTE INAWORDYES

Spoiler: show

Sloonei wrote:If Frog is town he'd be too big a loss on Day 1. Keep going after him on Day 2 and don't be deterred if he throws up tons of posts or insists everyone is wrong without giving a reason.

This doesn't seem like a logical progression, which is what I would expect from Sloonei. Why did back up his Frog vote 4 minutes before the deadline, only to switch his vote to IAWY and back out of that opinion at the very last second?

That very last post really confuses me. That does not sound like the Sloonei I know in the slightest. Town Sloonei would have stayed on his biggest suspect.

Also, his "what did IAWY do?" with less than a half hour to go act is something I've seen mafia ask about their teammates many times, in an attempt to seem unaware of suspicion surrounding them. IAWY had dominated a lot of the thread discussion; even if Sloonei lost energy, I would think he would be aware of this.

Furthmore, I still don't understand why he moved his vote either. He provides no explanation.

Lastly, I find both Marco and Soneji's defense of this vote strange. Yes, looking at the vote process in isolation, it looks brilliant and towny. But there's no substantive content to back it up.... from Sloonei of all people.

I'm convinced enough to place a vote on Moonei for now.

VOTE MATT / SLOONEI

Marco wrote:From the actual votes, one can make an argument that Sloonei switched from frog to IAWY to distance himself from IAWY for the future. But at that time, during EOD, with minutes to go, people were using the polls to keep track of the votes. I don't think Sloonei would've known his vote would not do anything. Especially, since he has no reason to believe someone else wouldn't vote IAWY suddenly.

But why would a town player do this?

Matt wrote:Golden, if you are a baddie, you're doing a terrific job.

If you're civ, then obviously this Mafia scrimmage is being wasted on you. Tsk tsk.

??????

Golden wrote:

Marco wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Marco wrote:@MM, He is your top suspect knowing that he switched off Frog to IAWY Day 1 lynch?

He is one of my top suspects, and that is without looking back over previous events with the knowledge that IAWY is scum.

I do know he made that vote switch, but I don't remember there being any context behind it. I'll look into it.

His reason for changing the vote was that Frog had value to the game alive (he scum-read Frog but he admitted he hadn't read anything past the first dozen pages). Regardless, why would scum vote for their own partner in such a scenario?

Boy, I'm just going to say. If I was scum, my go to move would snow you completely. Thats EXACTLY when you should bus someone. When it gets the most cred.

I agree completely.

Golden wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:QUESTION FOR JAY: - At the end of Day 1, ika posted in the thread but did not move his vote in the poll. Which vote counts? Also DrWilgy and Frog moved their votes in the poll, but did not post those changes. Did those votes count?

In hindsight, this actually makes ika's vote look worse than slooneis.

It supports the "ika bussed IAWY" theory, for sure.

As of right now, before detailed analysis, I'd like to lynch Sloonei or ika today.

Golden wrote:

Marco wrote:@mm, that makes sense to me. He felt like frog and IAWY were scummy. Frog was his prime candidate but he decided frog had more value than IAWY.

I'm not sure why you don't understand how frog had more value. I've never played with either of them before but just going by post count, activity, and contribution, town!Frog had a lot more value than town!IAWY.

I've never seen sloonei shift a vote on the basis of 'value'.

Besides, frog wasn't demonstrating 'value', he was just demonstrating 'volume', which are two different things. I might understand it if it was someone like Jay, or frankly even if it was you - but anyone who genuinely suspected Frog could see that he had stopped adding value about 12 hours into the game.

Golden, you're my new brain twin, apparently.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Ok, here are all of the votes made within the last 12 hours of Day 1.

Spoiler: show

12 hours until deadline

sig votes a2thezebra - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Sloonei - Link
a2thezebra votes a2thezebra - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Sloonei - Link

6 hours until deadline

Golden votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
a2thezebra votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
sig votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
MovingPictures07 votes Inawordyes - Link
Dyslexicon votes a2thezebra- Link
Golden votes Inawordyes - Link
Silverwolf votes Inawordyes - Link
ika votes Inawordyes - Link

3 hours until deadline

Metalmarsh89 votes Frog - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Sloonei - Link
a2thezebra votes Silverwolf - Link
Epignosis votes Frog - Link
Marco votes Metalmarsh89 - Link

2 hours until deadline

Soneji votes Frog - Link
a2thezebra votes Metalmarsh89- Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Inawordyes - Link
Sloonei votes Frog - Link

1 hour until deadline

30 minutes until deadline

Epignosis votes Frog - Link
Golden votes Frog - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Frog - Link

10 minutes until deadline

Dyslexicon votes Frog - Link
Sloonei votes Inawordyes - Link
ika votes Frog - Link

Based on the votes submitted in the thread, the tally does not accurately indicate the final vote total. DrWilgy never posted his vote. Frog didn't submit his final vote, and ika didn't change his vote in the poll. Perhaps Jay (or someone else) can clarify this, but the final tally should be either 6-3 or 5-4 Frog over IAWY, depending on how Jay counted ika's final vote.

This is glorious. Any way you can do this for Day 2?

I could. I only did the votes in the final 12 hours for Day 1 because those were more interesting.

Day 2 will be less interesting because IAWY was somewhat unanimous at a certain point in the day, but still useful nonetheless.

Matt wrote:MM - You should vote for me for something I did, so I can like...defend against it or something haha.

I cannot believe those dastardly mafia folk killed Zexy AND Dyslexi!

VOTE DRWILGY

You could just make it easy and do something really scummy. :P

But you're right. When I get a chance, I'll process your contributions.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Ok, here are all of the votes made within the last 12 hours of Day 1.

Spoiler: show

12 hours until deadline

sig votes a2thezebra - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Sloonei - Link
a2thezebra votes a2thezebra - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Sloonei - Link

6 hours until deadline

Golden votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
a2thezebra votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
sig votes Metalmarsh89 - Link
MovingPictures07 votes Inawordyes - Link
Dyslexicon votes a2thezebra- Link
Golden votes Inawordyes - Link
Silverwolf votes Inawordyes - Link
ika votes Inawordyes - Link

3 hours until deadline

Metalmarsh89 votes Frog - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Sloonei - Link
a2thezebra votes Silverwolf - Link
Epignosis votes Frog - Link
Marco votes Metalmarsh89 - Link

2 hours until deadline

Soneji votes Frog - Link
a2thezebra votes Metalmarsh89- Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Inawordyes - Link
Sloonei votes Frog - Link

1 hour until deadline

30 minutes until deadline

Epignosis votes Frog - Link
Golden votes Frog - Link
Metalmarsh89 votes Frog - Link

10 minutes until deadline

Dyslexicon votes Frog - Link
Sloonei votes Inawordyes - Link
ika votes Frog - Link

Based on the votes submitted in the thread, the tally does not accurately indicate the final vote total. DrWilgy never posted his vote. Frog didn't submit his final vote, and ika didn't change his vote in the poll. Perhaps Jay (or someone else) can clarify this, but the final tally should be either 6-3 or 5-4 Frog over IAWY, depending on how Jay counted ika's final vote.

This is glorious. Any way you can do this for Day 2?

I could. I only did the votes in the final 12 hours for Day 1 because those were more interesting.

Day 2 will be less interesting because IAWY was somewhat unanimous at a certain point in the day, but still useful nonetheless.

Oh, that's a good point. Still would be useful though, I think. Only if you have time, of course.

I think there might be differences in how players bus in games between here and NF. Interpretations of Sloonei's vote seem to fall exactly along site lines. Why is that?

Shit, I better go. Be back tonight or tomorrow afternoon. Sorry for the lack of analytical contributions. A few weeks from now, I would have more time to play. Not sure how many posts I'd have then.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I should have majored in Mafia Games.

You could turn your sig into your resume and include your Mafia degree in it.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Matt wrote:Golden, if you are a baddie, you're doing a terrific job.

If you're civ, then obviously this Mafia scrimmage is being wasted on you. Tsk tsk.

??????

Matt is saying he is town. Nothing more.

Marco wrote:From the actual votes, one can make an argument that Sloonei switched from frog to IAWY to distance himself from IAWY for the future. But at that time, during EOD, with minutes to go, people were using the polls to keep track of the votes. I don't think Sloonei would've known his vote would not do anything. Especially, since he has no reason to believe someone else wouldn't vote IAWY suddenly.

The point is, it doesn't matter if the vote actually leads to the lynch. Either frog flips town or IAWY flips bad. Either way, sloonei's vote switch looks inspired. This is the point. If he has perfect knowledge, he knows he wins both ways.

Golden wrote:

Marco wrote:@golden, I know a bus like that would make one look good. But it seems unnecessary.

Your basically saying that as scum who has his vote on his teammate's counter wagon, you would lynch your own teammate at the last minute for town cred?

I can understand a fresh vote but he had already placed his vote and given his reason.

You are basically town clearing him on it. This is the definition of necessary.

IAWY appeared absent, a good mark.

Yes - this is the kind of cutthroat thing I would absolutely do, and I think sloonei would as well. It's also why I say mechanical statements like Frog's for finding scum are easy to beat.

I'm not really town clearing him. Not until I look at VCA personally. Right now, I'm trying to gain insight into Sloonei's behavior by asking all your opinions.

Golden wrote:Doesn't that vote from sloonei look like perfect knowledge to you? Frog was his top town suspect, but suddenly with little time to give anyone to react he is talking of Frog's value? That makes no sense to me. If someone is your top scum suspect, you don't keep them around because they might 'add value' if you are wrong. If he had expressed an equal scum read on each of them, I can understand picking for value. But he hadn't. IAWY was a 'fresh vote' for sloonei in the sense that I have no recollection of him ever looking in that direction (I'd need to check that up)... I know thats not what you meant fresh vote to mean.

I just really don't buy that vote. I didn't from the start. Town sloonei might jump around, but I've not seen him suddenly get cold feet on a wagon and shift to one he wasn't talking about last second.

If I hadn't read the latter 3/4th of a phase, I would definitely give more weight to statistics and other people's opinions than my own reads. Basically, yeah, I can definitely imagine saving my top suspect if I feel like my read may be outdated and that it's better for me to catch up and focus on him again on Day 2, especially if I think the suspect brings value to the game, regardless of his alignment.

That said, your meta read on Sloonei is noted.