Re: Bread Mafia [Day 1]
Posted: Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:29 pm
nthJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:28 pmmafia is bad
nthJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:28 pmmafia is bad
yes, ur play is so bad and scummy right now that I seriously doubt I'm gonna reconsider you unless you **maybe** flip town and even then I'll probably consider you scum
Esooa mafia
I do, but I also found esooa a bit towny today and feel less likely she's teamed with lc tbh.
eh maybe idkEsooa wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:20 pmthis person is teamed with EllieMade wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:20 pmI'm pragmatic. I'll move if it means y'all can vote in a way that makes more sense. Ellie is voting in self defense. I don't think that's AI. I really don't see how Ellie is bad here (or at least worst than LC/Essoa)staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:18 pm i will say that ellie, made, and DOOM all being on the LC wagon makes me feel uneasy. i am skeptical of all 3 of those slots being town
it does feel off but idk idk idkMade wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:22 pmwe could both be town, yes.Esooa wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:20 pmthis person is teamed with EllieMade wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:20 pmI'm pragmatic. I'll move if it means y'all can vote in a way that makes more sense. Ellie is voting in self defense. I don't think that's AI. I really don't see how Ellie is bad here (or at least worst than LC/Essoa)staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:18 pm i will say that ellie, made, and DOOM all being on the LC wagon makes me feel uneasy. i am skeptical of all 3 of those slots being town
y'all this feels off. What's happened since Mac's case last night that's made ellie look worse than LC?
he is literally making up bullshit about Ellie. Her vote was NEVER SELF PRES at all in any sense, he's trying to say some shit about it not being AI cause LC is gonna flip town and her pushing him is gonna look awful and he needs to defend her rn toonutella wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:30 pmeh maybe idkEsooa wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:20 pmthis person is teamed with EllieMade wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:20 pmI'm pragmatic. I'll move if it means y'all can vote in a way that makes more sense. Ellie is voting in self defense. I don't think that's AI. I really don't see how Ellie is bad here (or at least worst than LC/Essoa)staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:18 pm i will say that ellie, made, and DOOM all being on the LC wagon makes me feel uneasy. i am skeptical of all 3 of those slots being town
tf is "scummy town"MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:30 pmEsooa mafia
Alison mafia
LC mafia
Jay lean mafia
DoO and Ellie scummy town
Grogu lol
Nutella lock town
Nanook lean town
SPF lean town
Koba, Michelle lean town
Made scummy town
ehh i have reservations about all those postsstaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:22 pmall of these posts pinged me as being town-indicative last night:JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:17 pmif you could point to/describe that i'd appreciate it, or to wherever you may have already said itstaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:16 pm i'm considering switching to ellie, but i honestly got townvibes from the way she engaged w/the thread last night
EllieDelight wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 3:01 amnah im at lime 30% now. honestly i dont think either of you are but im too ego to completely admit i was at fault lolstaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:59 am ellie, you said earlier that you were 100% sure that there's a mafia within me and michelle
do you still feel that way? if so, why haven't you pursued or talked about that angle recently? it does not seem that your current reads are being influenced by the extremely confident read you outed like 24 hours agoEllieDelight wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 4:09 am also mac, i dont think youre scum. ignore that post i made like, 2 pages back. i was just curious about its reaponses(not that it got any....)it's likely because all of these posts show both a willingness to re-consider her perspective as well as an attitude that runs slightly contrary to a self-preservation mindsetEllieDelight wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:51 amI have an easy gambit: bake LC today and if he flips town quick-bake me tomorrow, if he's mafia everyone is happy. I dont think there's much risk there for town.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:40 amI take issue with the bolded especially but this post more generally. I am one of the people who moved from LC to Ellie. Esooa and LC were already there. LC has every right to be there and never moved from himself to Ellie. Esooa had never voted LC either. So literally the only person who is voting for Ellie that was on LC is me. So you are essentially saying Ellie looks great if LC flips scum because Mac moved from LC to Ellie. This only makes sense if I am mafia but you aren't pushing me. This is a surface level analysis designed to bury LC and protect Ellie. You are mafia.Made wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 12:07 am But yeah, I majored in wagonomic in undergrad guys I got this:
So LC is odd for getting a lot of votes and those votes kinda dissolving is a great look for Ellie if LC flips scum, and a bad look for people who switch off him, especially if they started the wagon.
If Ellie is bad clear spf, LC, and essoa. There’s no reason for a clump of votes to appear there from a baddie team, especially at this point
From this I get if Ellie is mafia LC is town and if LC is baddie Ellie is town.
Please update your reads accordingly.
More at 11.
And you should be happy with this unless youre partnered with LC, but like, people werent saying that at the beginning of the game were they?
but looking further, these posts aren't really as towny as they felt ~in the moment~ to me. it might be a mistake to favor some perceived micro towntells over ellie's game being scummy holistically
It couldn't be more obvious really could itDkKoba wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:32 pmtf is "scummy town"MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:30 pmEsooa mafia
Alison mafia
LC mafia
Jay lean mafia
DoO and Ellie scummy town
Grogu lol
Nutella lock town
Nanook lean town
SPF lean town
Koba, Michelle lean town
Made scummy town
this is disrespectfulMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:31 pm This game is gonna go like this
The Mafia are strong and will survive d1
I will get shot
Mafia will stomp
Given this foregone conclusion I'm gonna phone in the rest of the day.
ok but what about ellieMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:32 pmEsooa is very good at sounding town. I am not suspect her for not sounding town.
I don't use that kind of term no, ive only heard it in newbie games on MS.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:32 pmIt couldn't be more obvious really could itDkKoba wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:32 pmtf is "scummy town"MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:30 pmEsooa mafia
Alison mafia
LC mafia
Jay lean mafia
DoO and Ellie scummy town
Grogu lol
Nutella lock town
Nanook lean town
SPF lean town
Koba, Michelle lean town
Made scummy town
if you could vig kill someone immediately who would you killDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:33 pm I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh
I'm always iffy to vote on grogu like wagons. They feel like copouts. anyway it spins, I much rather Ellie die than grogu at this pointstaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:32 pm the grogu wagon still has plenty of room. i'm parking my vote there until i can feel good about a vote outside of him
Im not gonna argue with the entire thread. I'm just one Mac. If everyone wants to kill her over the howling wolves because they post good then good for them.nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:32 pmok but what about ellieMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:32 pmEsooa is very good at sounding town. I am not suspect her for not sounding town.
mac dont jump the sharkMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:25 pmBecause I am scumreading you.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:24 pmi don't feel as though you've respected what i can do as a town player in this dialogue. i don't think you intend that, but it can be a byproduct of your response to "my case isn't getting traction"MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:21 pmI have not been disrespectful here Jay. Show me where I was.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:19 pmMac, i've all the respect in the world for what you're capable of as a town player.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:18 pm If you wanna kill Ellie fine. If she flips town and I die just come back to my content. I've got better things to do than argue with wolves about their alignment.
please show others the same respect. if we're stupid ass morons, then guide us there accordingly. nicely.
There is one single player from whom i may consider such post as towny but he is not playing this game and his meta is unique.
awoooooooMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:35 pmIm not gonna argue with the entire thread. I'm just one Mac. If everyone wants to kill her over the howling wolves because they post good then good for them.nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:32 pmok but what about ellieMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:32 pmEsooa is very good at sounding town. I am not suspect her for not sounding town.
even i'm pretty iffy on JJJ at this pointnutella wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:35 pmmac dont jump the sharkMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:25 pmBecause I am scumreading you.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:24 pmi don't feel as though you've respected what i can do as a town player in this dialogue. i don't think you intend that, but it can be a byproduct of your response to "my case isn't getting traction"MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:21 pmI have not been disrespectful here Jay. Show me where I was.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:19 pmMac, i've all the respect in the world for what you're capable of as a town player.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:18 pm If you wanna kill Ellie fine. If she flips town and I die just come back to my content. I've got better things to do than argue with wolves about their alignment.
please show others the same respect. if we're stupid ass morons, then guide us there accordingly. nicely.
it worries me slightly that made's vote is not on any of the people he claimed would give him the most information if they were choppedMade wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 12:28 am okay, so here's my complete thinking:
players that are bad based on my reading: JJJ, Michelle, and on the low Alison
players that are bad because people i think are good think they're bad: SPF, LC
players that are bad based on PoE: DoO
From here, i looked at the polls and the direction the threads been moving.
LC started with a bunch of votes, but those votes disolved. that's sus for lc
Ellie lead the vote out of nowhere. that's sus for the voters there
alison not being in thread while voting LC: good look if LC is bad
DoO has no votes, but has been talked about significantly: that's a bad look for people who said she's bad if she's bad, but null if she's good
i don't think i can solve this game by myself, but I can try to optimize the outcome to learn the most. I feel like at this point (in order from most to least) I'd learned the most from these bakings
LC
Michelle
SPF
DoO
JJJ
Alison
so like i think JJJ is super sus, but if he's not bad, i'm wrong I don't think town learns much from that lynch.
not a science, but these are the kinds of dynamics going on in the black box that is my mind.
I would now like to open the floor to questions and discussions.
Every time someone asked me this, I used to say "myself" for the memesJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:34 pmif you could vig kill someone immediately who would you killDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:33 pm I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh
this was because of mac's Esooa/LC theory. Esooa wasn't in my radar at that point, I'd go back to LC if there's the vote for it, but I don't see people shifting to it, and I don't really think LC's behavior is super scummy in of itselfstaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:36 pmit worries me slightly that made's vote is not on any of the people he claimed would give him the most information if they were choppedMade wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 12:28 am okay, so here's my complete thinking:
players that are bad based on my reading: JJJ, Michelle, and on the low Alison
players that are bad because people i think are good think they're bad: SPF, LC
players that are bad based on PoE: DoO
From here, i looked at the polls and the direction the threads been moving.
LC started with a bunch of votes, but those votes disolved. that's sus for lc
Ellie lead the vote out of nowhere. that's sus for the voters there
alison not being in thread while voting LC: good look if LC is bad
DoO has no votes, but has been talked about significantly: that's a bad look for people who said she's bad if she's bad, but null if she's good
i don't think i can solve this game by myself, but I can try to optimize the outcome to learn the most. I feel like at this point (in order from most to least) I'd learned the most from these bakings
LC
Michelle
SPF
DoO
JJJ
Alison
so like i think JJJ is super sus, but if he's not bad, i'm wrong I don't think town learns much from that lynch.
not a science, but these are the kinds of dynamics going on in the black box that is my mind.
I would now like to open the floor to questions and discussions.
I can link you many town games I do the sameJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:38 pm anyone who knows Esooa:
should i care about her claiming mafia?
i usually ignore it. i know it means nothing for spf. but i dunno, worth asking
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:36 pmEvery time someone asked me this, I used to say "myself" for the memesJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:34 pmif you could vig kill someone immediately who would you killDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:33 pm I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh
but I am no longer a depressed kid so no more memes
I'd choose LC, I think I can give Grogu a bit more time though he'd be second
alrighty. would you say ellie is a town read?DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:38 pm Honestly I'd think about killing Made as well, based solely off the fact his reads are so wild to me. I don't see any reason to kill the people he listed.
goodDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:36 pmEvery time someone asked me this, I used to say "myself" for the memesJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:34 pmif you could vig kill someone immediately who would you killDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:33 pm I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh
but I am no longer a depressed kid so no more memes
I'd choose LC, I think I can give Grogu a bit more time though he'd be second
mac addressed thisJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:38 pm anyone who knows Esooa:
should i care about her claiming mafia?
i usually ignore it. i know it means nothing for spf. but i dunno, worth asking
I suppose I don't get to give you my take here even though I probably have better meta on her than anyone.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:38 pm anyone who knows Esooa:
should i care about her claiming mafia?
i usually ignore it. i know it means nothing for spf. but i dunno, worth asking
I'm not sure I'd call it a town read, just more of everytime I've come across an ellie post, I feel fine about itJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:41 pmDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:36 pmEvery time someone asked me this, I used to say "myself" for the memesJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:34 pmif you could vig kill someone immediately who would you killDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:33 pm I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh
but I am no longer a depressed kid so no more memes
I'd choose LC, I think I can give Grogu a bit more time though he'd be second
alrighty. would you say ellie is a town read?DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:38 pm Honestly I'd think about killing Made as well, based solely off the fact his reads are so wild to me. I don't see any reason to kill the people he listed.
and simultaneously a worse read on me than anyone this game?MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:42 pmI suppose I don't get to give you my take here even though I probably have better meta on her than anyone.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:38 pm anyone who knows Esooa:
should i care about her claiming mafia?
i usually ignore it. i know it means nothing for spf. but i dunno, worth asking