The Syndicate

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:28 am I probably won't be voting for tsp today

Y

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 8:32 am Like holy balls TSP is the 5th highest poster and I don’t remember anything he’s said besides ‘dunya is bad’

I see...

Does this make TSP direct into contention with Dunya?

Is Urist/TSP vs Dunya an actual thing my brain can conclude?

Urist/TSP/Marmot?

what's up good doctor?

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:36 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:32 am The longer this day goes on they’re likely I am to just vote for whomever.

Like a part of me just wishes I had hammered dunya when I had the chance, but I just hovered over the button and couldn’t do it.

I’d probably do it now because I’m impatient.

Would u have the balls to post this as wolf?

I mean…probably? I post a lot of shit as wolf

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:44 am what's up good doctor?

No much

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:43 am Urist/TSP/Marmot?

Anything is possible.

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:31 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:25 am

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:55 am

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:51 am

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:51 am

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:49 am

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:33 am w!dunia could pick someone besides scotty or lp for competing cases as a means of generating wifom

if she flips wolf, we'll spend future chops wasting them on scotty and lp because she advocated so heavily for their wagons to dissipate

i associate dunia's wolf game with a) an overarching agenda and b) strategic usage of AtE and camaraderie to receive personality-based town reads

b was present, but a was not

is the above significant enough to count as a?

scotty's post about as many of the wolves as possible needing to survive until a certain phase to maximize kills is of interest when placed next to my wifom theory regarding dunia

this would also explain w!hollowkatt's enthusiastic reply to scott's mech post

you are in marmot territory rn (theory crafting). I guess it's self-resolving since HK claimed SOD anyway. (in case you have any doubt, this is not wolf HK because that would be a big gamble on nobody picking the druid route)

This is marmot territory?

You tell me. You have been pushing the Doc yesterday for flimsy reasons imo.
Where is your head at rn? Why are you voting Dunia?

Please don't answer my question with a question. What do you mean when you say "theory-building is marmot territory" and why did you say that to syn eveb though you took it back?

Tsp made an astute post about dunia that I liked yesterday. Rask doesn't seem to remember tsp being around but I do remember him being around and remember some of his contributions.

TSP could be mafia, but I think that's if dunia/LP are both town, and that TSP was just circling the wagons yesterday because it didn't matter.

As for urist, I think he's still town. I'm a bit taken aback by his obstinance to not contribute until eod, but I think the fact that he has contributed anyway is rand town

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:50 am

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:31 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:25 am

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:55 am

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:51 am

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:51 am

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:49 am

i associate dunia's wolf game with a) an overarching agenda and b) strategic usage of AtE and camaraderie to receive personality-based town reads

b was present, but a was not

is the above significant enough to count as a?

scotty's post about as many of the wolves as possible needing to survive until a certain phase to maximize kills is of interest when placed next to my wifom theory regarding dunia

this would also explain w!hollowkatt's enthusiastic reply to scott's mech post

you are in marmot territory rn (theory crafting). I guess it's self-resolving since HK claimed SOD anyway. (in case you have any doubt, this is not wolf HK because that would be a big gamble on nobody picking the druid route)

This is marmot territory?

You tell me. You have been pushing the Doc yesterday for flimsy reasons imo.
Where is your head at rn? Why are you voting Dunia?

Please don't answer my question with a question. What do you mean when you say "theory-building is marmot territory" and why did you say that to syn eveb though you took it back?

Lol I didn t take it back nor dodged ur question. I have made several posts already to explain to you why I think ir case on Dr.W is meh at best. I said the situations weren t comparable and he just comfirmed it himself. That was you theory crafting for me. Syn was doing the same earlier with HK hence why my reaction. I cannot be any more clear here.

What I mean to say is, what "theory-crafting" am I doing, what issue do you take with it, and how is it different than what other players are doing?

So, why is Dunya a wolf?

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:55 am What I mean to say is, what "theory-crafting" am I doing, what issue do you take with it, and how is it different than what other players are doing?

Read the bost just above.

Correct me if I'm wrong rask, I think we're all theory crafting, but I think that you're labeling it as that specifically when you want to dismiss it. That's what I'm seeing here.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 12:23 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:32 pm Nobody needs to put points to druid.

I'm a level 3 druid

It's my opinion that the warrior powers are strictly better than the druid powers and while they're also better than the paladin powers, the paladin powers at least act as counters to the warrior powers. Like I would rarely choose a watch over a vigilante kill, even though I think watch is probably the second strongest power in the game after the vigilante kill. And I think track is just relatively weak, especially in a game where everybody has night actions (some of which don't do a lot and thus aren't provably) so you're going to stumble into false positives/negatives. Like tracker is strongest the closer you get to mountainous. Anyway.

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:56 am So, why is Dunya a wolf?

She's texting and driving

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:58 am

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 12:23 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:32 pm Nobody needs to put points to druid.

I'm a level 3 druid

It's my opinion that the warrior powers are strictly better than the druid powers and while they're also better than the paladin powers, the paladin powers at least act as counters to the warrior powers. Like I would rarely choose a watch over a vigilante kill, even though I think watch is probably the second strongest power in the game after the vigilante kill. And I think track is just relatively weak, especially in a game where everybody has night actions (some of which don't do a lot and thus aren't provably) so you're going to stumble into false positives/negatives. Like tracker is strongest the closer you get to mountainous. Anyway.

I grabbed it because I mathed out that you could hit level 2 super fast, which tells you what actions were used on your target. Then you can grab either warrior 1 or paladin 1 with your next CP. I thought being able to confirm claims was worth spending points on.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:00 am

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:56 am So, why is Dunya a wolf?

She's texting and driving

Id agree if she was texting while pooping

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:43 pm I’m actually surprised NAA hasn’t come in with mathematical jargon and probabilities for optimal specialization. I seem to recall he (and urist) coming in hot in Pandas talking about shooting odds in that mechanic.

All i remember from NAA’s D1 was farting numbers for my game. Which is a niche subject and, actually, didn’t even apply to this game in the end.

I don't actually like this set up. I'm mostly playing to advance the queue and because I want Nanook's game to play out.

I think Pandas asked a lot more interesting questions about balance.

I've softened up on dunia being wolf. I thought she was spending most of her energy defending herself, and when the pressure dipped, she didn't do much in those quieter moments. But I also was probably a little harsh on her for that.

I still think she has wolf equity, but I think I'll back off that for now and give her space to work.

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:36 am if dunia is a wolf, what are the other wolves doing

if lp is a wolf, what are the other wolves doing

Defending Dunya, as several players have done. Or bussing Dunya, as several players could be.

Literally I'm LP's biggest defender and I don't even townread her. Yet the LP wagon isn't going over to the point where it's obviously a bus or disappating where the wolf team is like "lol let's let the people who wrongly suspect Dunya/whoever save LP for us."

Suggests LP is a townie just based on gamestate. Suggests little about Dunya's alignment.

Urist is a very plausible partner for LP btw.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:58 am Correct me if I'm wrong rask, I think we're all theory crafting, but I think that you're labeling it as that specifically when you want to dismiss it. That's what I'm seeing here.

Nope. It s true I dont agree with you on these reads AND it s true I dont like how you formed these.

Like this process can lead to any conclusions. Just find one (1) instance of the stuff u want to show case and ride it.

Actually Dunya fits that team too... In a very weird way.

[VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

Yes wilgy, you would pocket mac

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:38 am dolby (4) was more concerned with hammer speculation than the game and lacks interest in actual interactions

This is true. Particularly looks bad in the unlikely world where LP and Dunya are both town. We're probably screwed in that world anyhow.

I’ve spent way too long trying to analyze whatever the holy fuck NAA has had as my town tell using the numbers he listed, and I’ve come to the conclusion

That it’s all bullshit and either he’s a game throwing turd bucket or he’s wolf to attempting to stir the pot, picking me to mentally harass. Probably because he knew I’d be a good bait.

-he uses his “algorithm” as a vague catch-all, only dropping hints as to what it is. But he uses decimals to suggest an average of sorts.

184.794668 (I had 33 posts)
68.86444669
106.2587678
200.3094828
73.20672036 [(& then after I posted 25 more times) 74.6707982] (this game)
233.2049967

-You’ll also note some of those decimals end in 7 characters, and others in 6 or 8. Arbitrary.
-the “tell” certainly isn’t post count. The GoC game that he says corresponds to the first number makes sure of that. It’s not post count/hour.
-He’s not sitting at home in his laboratory breaking down key phrases and voting patterns from these games. Who would do that? I’ve already spent way too long working out what the number could signify but there’s no pattern or correlation that I can find.


It’s all a red herring, to which an easy, lazy bullshit response from NAA would be “:smugface: I’ll show you in postgame Scotty”

This game is frustrating me to no end

@Scotty @Le petit poussin @LinearPoint

FYI, I'm hard shielding TSP as an almost certain townie. I think that wagon is terrible. Vote elsewhere.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:07 am [VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

Yes wilgy, you would pocket mac

Dont chop my partners pls. Thats gross

What do other players think of Rask?

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:08 am This game is frustrating me to no end

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:08 am @Scotty @Le petit poussin @LinearPoint

FYI, I'm hard shielding TSP as an almost certain townie. I think that wagon is terrible. Vote elsewhere.

Is this a meta read?

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:38 am TSP/Jack feels linked in some way but I am liking jack better (like HK I think Jack's mech posts I just read are coming from a town perspective, mostly for the fact I expect this sort of thing being posted in wc, not itt). The posts from TSP shielding Jack felt like TMI.

I don't think those posts have been tmi because I think I've been particularly townie this game. Course, hard to see yourself honestly but that read from TSP came after I started doing townie Jack things and I have other reasons to think Tony is town besides.

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:10 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:08 am @Scotty @Le petit poussin @LinearPoint

FYI, I'm hard shielding TSP as an almost certain townie. I think that wagon is terrible. Vote elsewhere.

Is this a meta read?

Yes.

Trust jack, he's an expert

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:09 am What do other players think of Rask?

Lololol
Are you outing wolf?
What do YOU think? Make a case, vote me, but this is lame

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:11 am Trust jack, he's an expert

allright coach, i ll think about it

Scotty, let's not call naa a game-throwing turd bucket.

I don't understand what he's doing with you either tbf

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:13 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:11 am Trust jack, he's an expert

allright coach, i ll think about it

That one was a joke because that's exactly what tsp would say

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:12 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:09 am What do other players think of Rask?

Lololol
Are you outing wolf?
What do YOU think? Make a case, vote me, but this is lame

I'm asking for reads on you, I don't see the problem here

Rask = LPP, right?

I do have a thing I want to say about rask but I don't want to say it immediately and influence reads that other people have

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:14 am

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:13 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:11 am Trust jack, he's an expert

allright coach, i ll think about it

That one was a joke because that's exactly what tsp would say

Yeap but I read Jacks post and its percolating

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:46 am dunia/hollowkatt/urist/tonystarkprime

does this sound stupid

Kinda, tbh. Like if Dunya is a wolf, I expect there to be at least one wolf in HK/Dya/Scotty but Urist seems too disconnected to be a wolf in a game where w!Dunya has been a leading wagon for like the whole of D2 and Tony is just town.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:16 am Rask = LPP, right?

Correct. We playdd that boomer game on MU earlier this year. I wolfsided D1 and Blade vigged me

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:16 am Rask = LPP, right?

Yup. Dunia's squalid and disturbed brother

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:19 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:16 am Rask = LPP, right?

Yup. Dunia's squalid and disturbed brother

Spoiler: show

for legal purposes, this is a crime and punishment reference

Lmao

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:18 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:16 am Rask = LPP, right?

Correct. We playdd that boomer game on MU earlier this year. I wolfsided D1 and Blade vigged me

Lolol I forgot about that game. What a disaster for town

I'm definitely partially to blame

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:49 am

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:33 am w!dunia could pick someone besides scotty or lp for competing cases as a means of generating wifom

if she flips wolf, we'll spend future chops wasting them on scotty and lp because she advocated so heavily for their wagons to dissipate

i associate dunia's wolf game with a) an overarching agenda and b) strategic usage of AtE and camaraderie to receive personality-based town reads

b was present, but a was not

is the above significant enough to count as a?

a) is totes present in this game. A lot of Dunya's vote shifts have seemed agenday to me. Either to nudge things away from potential teammates (notably Scotty), towards potential misyeets (notably Wilgy) or just to change up the topic when things have settled down in a place that's bad for her (though tbf, there is motivation for that kind of switch as a townie). Like, the vote changes from Dunya don't feel like natural "I am a townie and I have seen a thing that causes me to change a read that causes me to change a vote" votes. They feel not like a good guy solving a puzzle but a bad guy making moves on a chessboard.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:10 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:08 am This game is frustrating me to no end

[VOTE: NAA] aubergine