Re: Game of Champions- Merged Thread [Day 8]
Posted: Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:12 pm
Sorry btw I'm making dinner for guests so I'm sorta half here
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
If that one feels off to you, why did no one jump to the opposition of the Davos yeet? If there are 2 remaining landlord voices in the game, why weren't they pushing for end game?WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:21 pmI think leetic was just saying that Davos could've taken up a second landlord slot without being a separate player, though. Which I'm not sure I agree with, because then that would be 3 landlords and a puppet, which feels a little off.Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:10 pm Nope. Still doesn't check out.
leetic said this in RESPONSE to you saying, "you should ONLY vote within Wilgy/me today. Davos's flip should confirm to you that the Landlord is on the East side and can only be one of the two of us."
If leetic has civilian information, then leetic is breaking the rules, but the response doesn't make sense in that context as a reply to you.
I don't think that's the case. I think leetic flat out goofed.
But then we're back to anyone from our thread Nutella and that still fails to make sense.WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:09 pmIt was because of Epi's timing, though. Idk, I've been rethinking this all day and I feel like I'd rather flip Delta, except that I still believe you're Davos's owner.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 12:38 pmBut you GG'd me WHILE thinking this?WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 8:13 pm I don't really suspect Epi, either, because they moved their vote after I unvoted Davos, and I can't think of a reason why a wolf would rather flip a sock puppet than someone who's a mislunch.
And on the topic of Davos, yes, I remember what you said about how Scrappy and Davos came from games with different sock puppet mechanics. But if anything, I believe that would still make it more likely Scrappy mightve been an external player (for a total number of players that is odd) and Davos is a player in the game (not adding an extra to the count).
"It's always Wilgy, but even if I'm wrong it's Wilgy? But it's also Delta"WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:35 pmSeems to me that a landlord would be willing to flip Davos if it gave them a chance to save themselves, if they didn't think they could build a wagon on anyone else. Especially if it's the one controlling the puppet; it would basically function as distancing from a teammate, except against their own puppet account.leetic wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:31 pm It seems Epi has already realized his mistake, but I'll go over the logic of Brad being Davos just to be sure. Cape90's role PM said that they were the only one who could see both threads, so Davos can't be anyone from my side, and Davos flipped as a wolf, meaning they can't be anyone who flipped town or ITP. Thus, there are only three people who Davos could possibly be: Brad, WWA, and Wilgy. Now look at the last day's lynch. Both WWA and Wilgy gave up a lynch on me (and on WWA in Wilgy's case) to get rid of Davos, with Davos also crossvoting WWA which would not be ideal if they were w/w. Keep in mind that if there is a living landlord remaining, having Davos alive would give them a huge advantage over the other team, and I don't see why they'd give it up so easily. Further, Davos's behavior does fit in with w!Brad's behavior when he was sent into my thread in Severance, so it does make sense.
This isn't super important, though, because Wilgy can still be an arbiter if I'm wrong. But my belief is that the arbiter is on the West side of the thread and that Wilgy was controlling Davos, because of what I said before about having a completely dead landlord team in a XyLo situation save for Davos.
Well, leetic opposed it. But I don't count Davos as a separate voice from whoever the last landlord is because I'm still under the assumption they were controlled.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:13 pmIf that one feels off to you, why did no one jump to the opposition of the Davos yeet? If there are 2 remaining landlord voices in the game, why weren't they pushing for end game?WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:21 pmI think leetic was just saying that Davos could've taken up a second landlord slot without being a separate player, though. Which I'm not sure I agree with, because then that would be 3 landlords and a puppet, which feels a little off.Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:10 pm Nope. Still doesn't check out.
leetic said this in RESPONSE to you saying, "you should ONLY vote within Wilgy/me today. Davos's flip should confirm to you that the Landlord is on the East side and can only be one of the two of us."
If leetic has civilian information, then leetic is breaking the rules, but the response doesn't make sense in that context as a reply to you.
I don't think that's the case. I think leetic flat out goofed.
It would've been easy enough to do.
Probably a bus drive if it came from you. All I know is that it wasn't a redirect and also that I don't believe it was on purpose from our side. But I firmly believe the kill came from whoever is in the west.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:15 pmBut then we're back to anyone from our thread Nutella and that still fails to make sense.WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:09 pmIt was because of Epi's timing, though. Idk, I've been rethinking this all day and I feel like I'd rather flip Delta, except that I still believe you're Davos's owner.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 12:38 pmBut you GG'd me WHILE thinking this?WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 8:13 pm I don't really suspect Epi, either, because they moved their vote after I unvoted Davos, and I can't think of a reason why a wolf would rather flip a sock puppet than someone who's a mislunch.
And on the topic of Davos, yes, I remember what you said about how Scrappy and Davos came from games with different sock puppet mechanics. But if anything, I believe that would still make it more likely Scrappy mightve been an external player (for a total number of players that is odd) and Davos is a player in the game (not adding an extra to the count).
My assumption is that it's you and Delta. There's no way it's not you, because of the Davos flip, unless Leetic is right and it was tied to Brad. But Davos was tied to someone who can only logically be in east.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:26 pm"It's always Wilgy, but even if I'm wrong it's Wilgy? But it's also Delta"WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:35 pmSeems to me that a landlord would be willing to flip Davos if it gave them a chance to save themselves, if they didn't think they could build a wagon on anyone else. Especially if it's the one controlling the puppet; it would basically function as distancing from a teammate, except against their own puppet account.leetic wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:31 pm It seems Epi has already realized his mistake, but I'll go over the logic of Brad being Davos just to be sure. Cape90's role PM said that they were the only one who could see both threads, so Davos can't be anyone from my side, and Davos flipped as a wolf, meaning they can't be anyone who flipped town or ITP. Thus, there are only three people who Davos could possibly be: Brad, WWA, and Wilgy. Now look at the last day's lynch. Both WWA and Wilgy gave up a lynch on me (and on WWA in Wilgy's case) to get rid of Davos, with Davos also crossvoting WWA which would not be ideal if they were w/w. Keep in mind that if there is a living landlord remaining, having Davos alive would give them a huge advantage over the other team, and I don't see why they'd give it up so easily. Further, Davos's behavior does fit in with w!Brad's behavior when he was sent into my thread in Severance, so it does make sense.
This isn't super important, though, because Wilgy can still be an arbiter if I'm wrong. But my belief is that the arbiter is on the West side of the thread and that Wilgy was controlling Davos, because of what I said before about having a completely dead landlord team in a XyLo situation save for Davos.
WWA, assuming that it's not me, where do the remaining wolves lie?
"There's no way it's not you, because of the Davos flip" - but this contradicts your thoughts that I am an arbiter if not landlord?WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:57 pmMy assumption is that it's you and Delta. There's no way it's not you, because of the Davos flip, unless Leetic is right and it was tied to Brad. But Davos was tied to someone who can only logically be in east.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:26 pm"It's always Wilgy, but even if I'm wrong it's Wilgy? But it's also Delta"WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:35 pmSeems to me that a landlord would be willing to flip Davos if it gave them a chance to save themselves, if they didn't think they could build a wagon on anyone else. Especially if it's the one controlling the puppet; it would basically function as distancing from a teammate, except against their own puppet account.leetic wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:31 pm It seems Epi has already realized his mistake, but I'll go over the logic of Brad being Davos just to be sure. Cape90's role PM said that they were the only one who could see both threads, so Davos can't be anyone from my side, and Davos flipped as a wolf, meaning they can't be anyone who flipped town or ITP. Thus, there are only three people who Davos could possibly be: Brad, WWA, and Wilgy. Now look at the last day's lynch. Both WWA and Wilgy gave up a lynch on me (and on WWA in Wilgy's case) to get rid of Davos, with Davos also crossvoting WWA which would not be ideal if they were w/w. Keep in mind that if there is a living landlord remaining, having Davos alive would give them a huge advantage over the other team, and I don't see why they'd give it up so easily. Further, Davos's behavior does fit in with w!Brad's behavior when he was sent into my thread in Severance, so it does make sense.
This isn't super important, though, because Wilgy can still be an arbiter if I'm wrong. But my belief is that the arbiter is on the West side of the thread and that Wilgy was controlling Davos, because of what I said before about having a completely dead landlord team in a XyLo situation save for Davos.
WWA, assuming that it's not me, where do the remaining wolves lie?
I guess if I assume it was Brad and not you controlling Davos, I might reconsider leetic again, but I'm not particularly inclined to today.
I'm not discounting it, but I am wondering what it gets us.leetic wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 4:26 pm I don't see why the idea of Brad being Davos should be so easily discounted. After all, it has been shown twice that socks don't die at the same time as their owners. Doing the bare minimum to avoid spewing is something I would easily see Brad doing. Still, if there is a remaining landlord, that would suggest that the arbiters have some sort of ace up their sleeve or, worse, a fifth member. If it's the former, there's at least a 3/4 chance said ace is dead, and if it's the latter, town is kind of screwed here anyway unless we get very lucky with crossfire.
Control F-ing Epi usually results in a lot of fun for the controller and...leetic wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 11:51 pm Ctrl+fing "Epi" in Ricochet's ISO gives 41 results, but the amount of substantial interactions is far fewer, with the one I quoted being the only really notable one. It seems Ricochet was trying to use Epi to jumpstart a vote on Delta, possibly in an attempt to protect falcon and/or Lemonfairy.
I think you're a Landlord. That has always been my suspicion of you.
You got GG'd long after the fact.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 12:38 pmBut you GG'd me WHILE thinking this?WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 8:13 pm I don't really suspect Epi, either, because they moved their vote after I unvoted Davos, and I can't think of a reason why a wolf would rather flip a sock puppet than someone who's a mislunch.
Didn't leetic (and my dumbass) point out that Lime Coke was Davos?WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:09 pmIt was because of Epi's timing, though. Idk, I've been rethinking this all day and I feel like I'd rather flip Delta, except that I still believe you're Davos's owner.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 12:38 pmBut you GG'd me WHILE thinking this?WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 8:13 pm I don't really suspect Epi, either, because they moved their vote after I unvoted Davos, and I can't think of a reason why a wolf would rather flip a sock puppet than someone who's a mislunch.
And on the topic of Davos, yes, I remember what you said about how Scrappy and Davos came from games with different sock puppet mechanics. But if anything, I believe that would still make it more likely Scrappy mightve been an external player (for a total number of players that is odd) and Davos is a player in the game (not adding an extra to the count).
Nah, I'm not looking for reasons. I believe you have to be Davos's puppetmaster, and if you were town I would've expected you to push me for the same reason earlier in the day. But you put effort into building a case on me where there didn't need to be. I don't need to build a case on you because you have to be a wolf.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 2:11 pm"There's no way it's not you, because of the Davos flip" - but this contradicts your thoughts that I am an arbiter if not landlord?WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:57 pmMy assumption is that it's you and Delta. There's no way it's not you, because of the Davos flip, unless Leetic is right and it was tied to Brad. But Davos was tied to someone who can only logically be in east.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:26 pm"It's always Wilgy, but even if I'm wrong it's Wilgy? But it's also Delta"WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:35 pmSeems to me that a landlord would be willing to flip Davos if it gave them a chance to save themselves, if they didn't think they could build a wagon on anyone else. Especially if it's the one controlling the puppet; it would basically function as distancing from a teammate, except against their own puppet account.leetic wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:31 pm It seems Epi has already realized his mistake, but I'll go over the logic of Brad being Davos just to be sure. Cape90's role PM said that they were the only one who could see both threads, so Davos can't be anyone from my side, and Davos flipped as a wolf, meaning they can't be anyone who flipped town or ITP. Thus, there are only three people who Davos could possibly be: Brad, WWA, and Wilgy. Now look at the last day's lynch. Both WWA and Wilgy gave up a lynch on me (and on WWA in Wilgy's case) to get rid of Davos, with Davos also crossvoting WWA which would not be ideal if they were w/w. Keep in mind that if there is a living landlord remaining, having Davos alive would give them a huge advantage over the other team, and I don't see why they'd give it up so easily. Further, Davos's behavior does fit in with w!Brad's behavior when he was sent into my thread in Severance, so it does make sense.
This isn't super important, though, because Wilgy can still be an arbiter if I'm wrong. But my belief is that the arbiter is on the West side of the thread and that Wilgy was controlling Davos, because of what I said before about having a completely dead landlord team in a XyLo situation save for Davos.
WWA, assuming that it's not me, where do the remaining wolves lie?
I guess if I assume it was Brad and not you controlling Davos, I might reconsider leetic again, but I'm not particularly inclined to today.
You are looking for reasons to shove and don't actually believe what you are saying.
Because no puppet flipped with "by proxy is an arbiter"??? Like wtf are you on about, there was no arbiter puppet. Of course I'm going to say you're a landlord, because Davos flipped with "by proxy is a landlord" attached to their flip.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 4:02 pm Yeah, I've been chilling here thinking myself in circles about you this past hour.
Landlord WWA is even less likely to kill Nutella as that creates a risky Landlord, Landlord, Town PoE which is losing.
Town WWA's first assumption SHOULD be that I'm Arbiter as 2 landlords from their thread had been found and point 1 applies to me as well
It's only Arbiter WWA, who would argue that there's still an landlord pilot over that I'm just an Arbiter, as they know I can't be the remaining Arbiter. The mentions of "could still be an Arbiter" are unsubstantiated and just serve as "yeah I'm totally still considering that there's an arbiter in our thread."
Because I believe the puppet would've died if its puppetmaster had flipped. I don't see enough evidence to believe that Brad has been controlling it.leetic wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 4:26 pm I don't see why the idea of Brad being Davos should be so easily discounted. After all, it has been shown twice that socks don't die at the same time as their owners. Doing the bare minimum to avoid spewing is something I would easily see Brad doing. Still, if there is a remaining landlord, that would suggest that the arbiters have some sort of ace up their sleeve or, worse, a fifth member. If it's the former, there's at least a 3/4 chance said ace is dead, and if it's the latter, town is kind of screwed here anyway unless we get very lucky with crossfire.
Why are you so worried about arbiter-controlled LyLo? There are no puppets left, a landlord puppet just flipped but their owner did not, and so presumably we are all town vs 1 arbiter, 1 landlord.
I don't believe that Davos wouldn't have flipped if we had flipped the remaining landlord first.Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 6:46 pmDidn't leetic (and my dumbass) point out that Lime Coke was Davos?WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:09 pmIt was because of Epi's timing, though. Idk, I've been rethinking this all day and I feel like I'd rather flip Delta, except that I still believe you're Davos's owner.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 12:38 pmBut you GG'd me WHILE thinking this?WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 8:13 pm I don't really suspect Epi, either, because they moved their vote after I unvoted Davos, and I can't think of a reason why a wolf would rather flip a sock puppet than someone who's a mislunch.
And on the topic of Davos, yes, I remember what you said about how Scrappy and Davos came from games with different sock puppet mechanics. But if anything, I believe that would still make it more likely Scrappy mightve been an external player (for a total number of players that is odd) and Davos is a player in the game (not adding an extra to the count).
EBWOPWindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 7:16 pm Idc if I have to thunderdome Wilgy for this. This is what I was calling for at SoD, only he or I can be the puppetmaster to Davos. Davos's role said they were a landlord by proxy, meaning they were attached to a landlord whom I believe is currently in the game. I do not believe they were attached to Brad. I believe Wilgy is trying to worm his way out of being caught *as* Davos's owner.
I didn't comment on this earlier, but yes, I thought I'd said something similar yesterday when I was pushing for us to acknowledge that Davos was a realistic possibility of a wolf. That Davos OR someone from West would be able to intentionally make the nutella kill to incriminate Wilgy/me. The wrench in that theory now is that Davos flipped as a proxy and not as a wolf on their own, meaning that even if Davos made the nutella kill, it still came from someone else in the game.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 2:05 pm The thought that the Nutella kill comes from Epi/Leetic is somewhat undermined by the kill coming directly from Davos. Davos could've killed the slot and hoped to coast on the remaining PoE.
Leetics actions, as argued yesterday, continue to be in alignment with Davos, which doesn't necessarily cause the Davos submitting the Nutella kill to be as Nutella kill theory breaking.
...I stand corrected, never mind.sig wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:09 pm I’ve got that end of game certainty now that the final two mafia are Wilgy and Leetic. I’ve got very little solid reasoning to back this up, but it just seems like the most logic thing, having said that I will be reading up on those two before eod and hopefully everyone else also, but it just doesn’t seem viable that both mafia are West with only 2 West players left
This was the thing I remembered reading, though. I think if anything, I look worse from the sig kill than Wilgy does