The Syndicate

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:31 am

risiinq- wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:28 am anyone please sell me on any rly strong townreads yall have and ill consider it

I have DZ and Sabi as my strongest townreads rn
I am also fairly confident on Quas being town but tbh it depends a bit on how he answers my question

yeah, i def agree with dz and sabi

i was feeling p good about quas but i'm getting some cold feet

during night i acgtually iso'ed schia and felt better abt them but idk

starting again

What's iawy's reputation as scum? Is he good at avoiding being voted out?

Catchig up


Wind im confused by proxy cop apparnetly being twice in game

risiinq- wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:33 am

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:31 am

risiinq- wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:28 am anyone please sell me on any rly strong townreads yall have and ill consider it

I have DZ and Sabi as my strongest townreads rn
I am also fairly confident on Quas being town but tbh it depends a bit on how he answers my question

yeah, i def agree with dz and sabi

i was feeling p good about quas but i'm getting some cold feet

during night i acgtually iso'ed schia and felt better abt them but idk

starting again

Yeah I thought schia was towny on D1 and I can't tell if it's recency bias or the Guillo votes that are making me doubt them

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:33 am What's iawy's reputation as scum? Is he good at avoiding being voted out?

yeah, he is

i can send you a wolfgame of his if ur interested that i played in

DeeZees wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:33 am Catchig up


Wind im confused by proxy cop apparnetly being twice in game

Yeah that's what I'm trying to figure out
There is a possible explanation I can think of, but it doesn't work on N2 because pyxxy died on N1 and I know I saw a proxy cop last night, not N1

risiinq- wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:34 am

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:33 am What's iawy's reputation as scum? Is he good at avoiding being voted out?

yeah, he is

i can send you a wolfgame of his if ur interested that i played in

Sure, I'll give it a skim.
Reason I was asking is because I was wondering if he's the one who yoinked Creature's rolecard.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:33 am What's iawy's reputation as scum? Is he good at avoiding being voted out?

Really good

He convinced someome, having flipped wolf and died, he was town from graveyard (there were dead mechanics) so when graveyard villager got revived they protected the wofl team of incorrect association

this yoinking creature rolecard thing is going to get so confusing esp if creature is wolf

everyone thinks creature is wolf right

DeeZees wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:36 am

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:33 am What's iawy's reputation as scum? Is he good at avoiding being voted out?

Really good

I remember everyone commenting on how ridiculous it was that we misvoted him D1 in champs quals so I kind of suspected he must be hard to vote out in general lol

risiinq- wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:38 am this yoinking creature rolecard thing is going to get so confusing esp if creature is wolf

everyone thinks creature is wolf right

I didn't necessarily on D1, although his random claim of self-resolving was very similar to what I saw him do in a wolf game

But the fact that the role stealer has not claimed any results or whatever the self-resolve was supposed to be, kind of cements the idea that it must not actually be town.

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ch-Hunt-II

this is the game i was in

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost6255110

iso him from here to see his wolf form the most significantly

oh yeah honestly if the 3p who yoinked creature is town they should preferably out, right?

esp if they actually *are* self-resolving

And I only say that I was uncertain on creature because I had iso'd him and saw literally nothing useful in there

ok yea creature was prob wolf now that i think abt it

risiinq- wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:41 am esp if they actually *are* self-resolving

Yeah
Which is kind of why I feel like I should throw the notion that they yoinked creature in order to self-resolve, out the window
I mean, they could've done that and been so disappointed in getting a scum role that they decided to shut up instead of putting themselves in hot water
But I think you have a good chance of being right, that it's someone who wanted to be on the scumteam

if we're searching for the yoinked-creature-wolf then we're going to have to ignore some d1 stuff where the player is completely neutral and has no tmi

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 5:51 pm [VOTE: hollowkatt] aubergine

I don't like the timing of this unexplained vote. Things could very well have switched up in the directed of hollowkatt around this time, and dropping an unexplained vote here isn't a good look.

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 6:57 pm

Manny wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 6:51 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 6:50 pm I don't trust le petit raskol at all hm.

I kinda dont like him cuz he was on valentine wagon then nonchalantly swapped when the wagon died off. If Guillo flips scum ill just feel like he just bussed him for cred.

I just saw the wagon growth, like Nut and Sabi, and tryed a bait vote on HK to see what I could get out of it. Then HK posted some bad posts in reply to nut (didn't like the "how about no") and then he died. I liked Valentine's replies to my inquiries so didn't feel to start yet another wagon. Just sheep on Guillo.

TBH good job as a wolf to be so visible if some wolf pal is about to die lol.

Also not particularly sold on this explanation. Maybe it was a "bait vote" but if so it was a very late-game attempt. The last line with the "lol" is totally something I could see a wolf saying when they realise their late-game actions look wolfy.

I've talked myself into a scum-read on Le petit so I'm going to lay down my marker there for the time being while I explore alternatives.

[VOTE: Le petit poussin] aubergine

btw, wind, why vote daughter

risiinq- wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:40 am https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ch-Hunt-II

this is the game i was in

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost6255110

iso him from here to see his wolf form the most significantly

OK I see what you mean lol
Man, I'm shit at social reads and that's why i was dumb enough to sign up for role madness

risiinq- wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:46 am btw, wind, why vote daughter

I think she's scum or non-town
None of her reads have made sense to me
And she pushed me on D1, seemed to suddenly forget she was doing that and stuck me once in a town list iirc, and then said toward EoD that nobody should be townreading me
Her progression is completely nonexistent and now she's claiming compulsive slank vig who kills pretty much only town as a result
We don't have any reason to keep her in the game, she's probably a serial killer or something
Also poussin is commuted out so I just assumed I can't vote there, but I think he's actual scum, on the scumteam.

W/R/T the whole search for Creature's abductor conundrum:

How do we know they didn't die in the last two night phases? Is it confirmed that they're still alive somehow?

risiinq- wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:44 am if we're searching for the yoinked-creature-wolf then we're going to have to ignore some d1 stuff where the player is completely neutral and has no tmi

That's kinda why I think it could be iawy
Wasn't he sort of underwhelming on d1

Gonna ISO Valentine now as the second of those potential Guillo bussers. I need to to get my head around their roleclaim.

Mungbean wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:49 am W/R/T the whole search for Creature's abductor conundrum:

How do we know they didn't die in the last two night phases? Is it confirmed that they're still alive somehow?

If they did, they were a self-resolving town role
Who for whatever reason truly believed Creature's claim

Mungbean wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:49 am W/R/T the whole search for Creature's abductor conundrum:

How do we know they didn't die in the last two night phases? Is it confirmed that they're still alive somehow?

oh, i forgot about that

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:49 am

risiinq- wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:44 am if we're searching for the yoinked-creature-wolf then we're going to have to ignore some d1 stuff where the player is completely neutral and has no tmi

That's kinda why I think it could be iawy
Wasn't he sort of underwhelming on d1

he hasn't gotten better d3 which is what should happen tho?

granted it's only 12 hours in, but still

Btw, did anyone successfully neighborize a player who died the same night? I assume neighborizer processes at end of day or start of night but I want to be sure. Also, if anyone has a readlist from a dead player it would maybe be useful.

risiinq- wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:53 am

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:49 am

risiinq- wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:44 am if we're searching for the yoinked-creature-wolf then we're going to have to ignore some d1 stuff where the player is completely neutral and has no tmi

That's kinda why I think it could be iawy
Wasn't he sort of underwhelming on d1

he hasn't gotten better d3 which is what should happen tho?

granted it's only 12 hours in, but still

I thought at least he looked like he was putting effort into the Chelsea case
Problem is, it's JUST the Chelsea case

@ColinIsCool is Chelsea the only player you successfully neighborized?

So the case against Valentine from my perspective boils down to:

1) Late vote for Guillo when they were all-but-confirmed as the lynch candidate for that day.

2) A role-claim of vote-canceller. Clearly this is not AI, but it's definitely an ability that a wolf team could possess.

3) A bunch of posts just saying players are town. Granted, I haven't played mafia in years but this was always a scum-tell of my own back in the day. Scattershot town-reads are easier than, y'know, any kind of scumhunting.

Mungbean wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:07 am So the case against Valentine from my perspective boils down to:

1) Late vote for Guillo when they were all-but-confirmed as the lynch candidate for that day.

2) A role-claim of vote-canceller. Clearly this is not AI, but it's definitely an ability that a wolf team could possess.

3) A bunch of posts just saying players are town. Granted, I haven't played mafia in years but this was always a scum-tell of my own back in the day. Scattershot town-reads are easier than, y'know, any kind of scumhunting.

Does #2 change at all if there's more than one vote cancelling role in the game?

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:49 amAlso poussin is commuted out so I just assumed I can't vote there, but I think he's actual scum, on the scumteam.

Is this the case (that we can't vote for them)?

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:08 am

Mungbean wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:07 am So the case against Valentine from my perspective boils down to:

1) Late vote for Guillo when they were all-but-confirmed as the lynch candidate for that day.

2) A role-claim of vote-canceller. Clearly this is not AI, but it's definitely an ability that a wolf team could possess.

3) A bunch of posts just saying players are town. Granted, I haven't played mafia in years but this was always a scum-tell of my own back in the day. Scattershot town-reads are easier than, y'know, any kind of scumhunting.

Does #2 change at all if there's more than one vote cancelling role in the game?

The existence of two vote-cancelling roles would just lead me to believe that one is definitely wolf. I can't see why there'd be two for town. So no it doesn't really change anything as the odds of Valentine's role being wolfy would remain at 50%.

Regarding ColinIsCool:

I think their role is likely to be legit. If the game started with three 3P players then I think it's fair to assume that at least one of those was non-fatal/not anti-town. They claimed their role early. It doesn't seem an unreasonable claim (even though I maintain that the wincon seems hard to obtain). Crucially, they were also to prove their role function by neighbouring with Chelsea.

I'm more suspicious of those getting pitchforks out for Colin because he makes for an easy lynch target at this stage of the game. No need to scumhunt, just push a lynch of the 3P.

Mungbean wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:12 am

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:49 amAlso poussin is commuted out so I just assumed I can't vote there, but I think he's actual scum, on the scumteam.

Is this the case (that we can't vote for them)?

Idk, some of us are assuming so. I don't want to waste my vote on an unvotable target so that's pretty much the only reason I'm not voting there.

Mungbean wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:14 am

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:08 am

Mungbean wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:07 am So the case against Valentine from my perspective boils down to:

1) Late vote for Guillo when they were all-but-confirmed as the lynch candidate for that day.

2) A role-claim of vote-canceller. Clearly this is not AI, but it's definitely an ability that a wolf team could possess.

3) A bunch of posts just saying players are town. Granted, I haven't played mafia in years but this was always a scum-tell of my own back in the day. Scattershot town-reads are easier than, y'know, any kind of scumhunting.

Does #2 change at all if there's more than one vote cancelling role in the game?

The existence of two vote-cancelling roles would just lead me to believe that one is definitely wolf. I can't see why there'd be two for town. So no it doesn't really change anything as the odds of Valentine's role being wolfy would remain at 50%.

Yeah
The thing is that one seems to be a day ability and the other seems to be night
Unless something happened to delay Valentine into a completely different phase, but I don't believe that's the case?
Valentine's is a day ability so it's kinda public and kinda more obvious than the night ability, whom I saw last night but who hasn't claimed publicly.
Of course there's a chance Val is lying about how their role works, but Colin confirmed to some extent, and although he's a 3p I don't think he gains any advantage by lying about it either.

Mungbean wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:21 am Regarding ColinIsCool:

I think their role is likely to be legit. If the game started with three 3P players then I think it's fair to assume that at least one of those was non-fatal/not anti-town. They claimed their role early. It doesn't seem an unreasonable claim (even though I maintain that the wincon seems hard to obtain). Crucially, they were also to prove their role function by neighbouring with Chelsea.

I'm more suspicious of those getting pitchforks out for Colin because he makes for an easy lynch target at this stage of the game. No need to scumhunt, just push a lynch of the 3P.

There's also DoOm who has put Colin in her townreads for whatever unfathomable reason

I also believe Colin
His claim matches with the info I have, and what DZ has

Good morning

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:11 pm

DeeZees wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:10 pm

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:09 pm My role literally is wolf sided, and the only way town wins is to completely holster tbh

Just claim imo

Whoever posts the fewest posts everyday is killed by me

Back to the elephant in the room. We have to make a decision on whether we buy this being a town role in this setup. I don't see it as a wolf role as that would be OP. That would leave it as a 3P role, which is entirely possible. That would mean there was one non-fatal and not anti-town 3P (Colin), one fatal but single-shot 3P (whoever snatched Creature's role) and Daughter.

What gives me pause is the fact that Daughter roleclaimed. If I had this role as 3P I wouldn't claim my role. On that basis I'm leaning towards it being a town role, though one that is hardly helping the cause (especially now that scum are alerted it's existence).

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:21 am

Mungbean wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:12 am

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:49 amAlso poussin is commuted out so I just assumed I can't vote there, but I think he's actual scum, on the scumteam.

Is this the case (that we can't vote for them)?

Idk, some of us are assuming so. I don't want to waste my vote on an unvotable target so that's pretty much the only reason I'm not voting there.

@Marmot @MacDougall Are we able to vote for @Le petit poussin in this day phase?

Tbf, even if we are I'm not sure how comfortable I'd feel voting for someone who can't defend themselves. :/

Mungbean wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:32 am Tbf, even if we are I'm not sure how comfortable I'd feel voting for someone who can't defend themselves. :/

Yeah, that is also a concern
Like I think by PoE and mech he's probably scum anyway, but it's not good to make a mistake at this point

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:44 pm Colin can die. Outted 3p dies for parity sake

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:48 pm Just kill Colin, a confirmed non town player

This was the kind of lazy 3P pitchfork-wielding I was looking for. I don't think it's a good look.

[VOTE: UNVOTE] aubergine

Need clarification whether my original vote was even legal, and as previously stated not entirely comfortable voting for somebody who can't respond.

Mungbean wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:42 am

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:44 pm Colin can die. Outted 3p dies for parity sake

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:48 pm Just kill Colin, a confirmed non town player

This was the kind of lazy 3P pitchfork-wielding I was looking for. I don't think it's a good look.

Tbf Sabi thought Colin stole Creature's role which was entirely my fault for getting it wrong