The Syndicate

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:22 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:21 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:20 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:18 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:17 pm Landlord WWA COULD have moved off Davis thinking a tie between themselves would cause a no yeet.

WWA only doubling down on the "Davos doesn't count" in regards to my behavior when that didn't work unexpectedly.

Opener says ties arent no votes, so I'm not sure how that would really work

I'm sure no one would flip and Wolves would've been able to nk again.

Actually if the even/odds theory for kill distribution is correct, then this makes a lot of sense as a failed stall play.

?_?

No flip > nk > next day?

Was more the confidence in there being no flip but I'll leave it I think

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:23 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:22 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:21 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:20 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:18 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:17 pm Landlord WWA COULD have moved off Davis thinking a tie between themselves would cause a no yeet.

WWA only doubling down on the "Davos doesn't count" in regards to my behavior when that didn't work unexpectedly.

Opener says ties arent no votes, so I'm not sure how that would really work

I'm sure no one would flip and Wolves would've been able to nk again.

Actually if the even/odds theory for kill distribution is correct, then this makes a lot of sense as a failed stall play.

?_?

No flip > nk > next day?

Was more the confidence in there being no flip but I'll leave it I think

I mean it says specifically: ties will result in a no-elimination

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:43 pm Ties will not result in no-elimination

??

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:27 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:43 pm Ties will not result in no-elimination

??

oh goddammit

I read the damn OP 3 times today.

[VOTE: WWA] aubergine the entire argument that Davos going over meaning he had no contribution to parity is poot.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:28 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:27 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:43 pm Ties will not result in no-elimination

??

oh goddammit

LMAO

I was worried you were getting into mech hinting territory which is why I said to drop it but

if not, why would that be a stall play if it doesnt work?

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:29 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:28 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:27 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:43 pm Ties will not result in no-elimination

??

oh goddammit

LMAO

I was worried you were getting into mech hinting territory which is why I said to drop it but

if not, why would that be a stall play if it doesnt work?

No, I'm just exhausted lol.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:30 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:29 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:28 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:27 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:43 pm Ties will not result in no-elimination

??

oh goddammit

LMAO

I was worried you were getting into mech hinting territory which is why I said to drop it but

if not, why would that be a stall play if it doesnt work?

No, I'm just exhausted lol.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 2:40 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 2:36 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 2:14 pm I'm not Davos's puppet master.

Why would I push you for the same reason? I've already explained why I don't think you are landlord, do you suddenly expect me to change those thoughts after successfully hitting the landlord in East?

I didn't put effort into a case on you, you've basically all but said "I have to yeet Wilgy" and only Arbiter WWA would believe that as vehemently and upfront as you did.

Yes, I actually do believe it's suspicious that you're not reconsidering your view of me that I can't be a landlord. I see no reason why I should be looking elsewhere.

"Damn, why doesn't Wilgy think that I created a Landlord/Landlord/town state by killing Nutella and then alongside him lead the yeet of landlord Davos?"

And honestly the fact that you are pushing the thought that I did both of these things when that's so contrary to my own thinking is the best way for me to define your worldview as being borked.

I'm back to this now lol. WWA's entire argument for 'Yes Wilgy does create a Landlord/Landlord/town state' was that I would because Davos was worthless because they went over, this argument is 'well good thing I won the coinflip let me use that' at best OR 'good thing Arbiters win ties' at worst.

I dunno

I'm focusing too much on puppet mech I'm unsure about considering the time I've had in this has been so limited

On a broader scale, I do think final landlord lies within you two but like. If Davos was tied to a dead mafia, I dont know where that really leaves me?

I dont think it's both of you is a main issue which is tough because I know a huge part of late game has been 'just clear the other thread'

The issue with Davos = Brad is it would only be him or one of you, and I think if it's him he outright doesnt use the puppet after death if he isnt achieving anything with it.

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:37 pm I dunno

I'm focusing too much on puppet mech I'm unsure about considering the time I've had in this has been so limited

On a broader scale, I do think final landlord lies within you two but like. If Davos was tied to a dead mafia, I dont know where that really leaves me?

I dont think it's both of you is a main issue which is tough because I know a huge part of late game has been 'just clear the other thread'

Aye, well I'm also at the point where Epi/WWA's vote swapping almost seems coordinated, but I also think i'm beyond tinfoil mode.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:44 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:37 pm I dunno

I'm focusing too much on puppet mech I'm unsure about considering the time I've had in this has been so limited

On a broader scale, I do think final landlord lies within you two but like. If Davos was tied to a dead mafia, I dont know where that really leaves me?

I dont think it's both of you is a main issue which is tough because I know a huge part of late game has been 'just clear the other thread'

Aye, well I'm also at the point where Epi/WWA's vote swapping almost seems coordinated, but I also think i'm beyond tinfoil mode.

It cant be though, no?

Unless teams became aware of each other or some other weird factor like a third wolf team

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:40 pm The issue with Davos = Brad is it would only be him or one of you, and I think if it's him he outright doesnt use the puppet after death if he isnt achieving anything with it.

If it had some sort of restrictive clause that'd explain the use, especially if its only use with said restriction was to support 1 remaining member not on it's side. The sock did need to post to vote apparently.

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:45 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:44 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:37 pm I dunno

I'm focusing too much on puppet mech I'm unsure about considering the time I've had in this has been so limited

On a broader scale, I do think final landlord lies within you two but like. If Davos was tied to a dead mafia, I dont know where that really leaves me?

I dont think it's both of you is a main issue which is tough because I know a huge part of late game has been 'just clear the other thread'

Aye, well I'm also at the point where Epi/WWA's vote swapping almost seems coordinated, but I also think i'm beyond tinfoil mode.

It cant be though, no?

Unless teams became aware of each other or some other weird factor like a third wolf team

I mean, if landlords have 1 remaining that puts 1 team at 4.5 members. I don't know if it's too stretchy to think Arbiters could've started with 5 and we are now facing a 2v2v1.

I hope that's not the case and that's why it's merely tinfoil.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:48 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:40 pm The issue with Davos = Brad is it would only be him or one of you, and I think if it's him he outright doesnt use the puppet after death if he isnt achieving anything with it.

If it had some sort of restrictive clause that'd explain the use, especially if its only use with said restriction was to support 1 remaining member not on it's side. The sock did need to post to vote apparently.

Also, I guess I'd like to add, what if Davos was, purely a proxy for the landlords? As in the WHOLE team? Players couldn't see across, but wolves knew before the split, idk if it's too wild for the TEAM to have a puppet in a specific thread.

I've been trying to wrap my head around the puppet thing all day and I think this makes more sense than a ghost puppet.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:49 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:45 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:44 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:37 pm I dunno

I'm focusing too much on puppet mech I'm unsure about considering the time I've had in this has been so limited

On a broader scale, I do think final landlord lies within you two but like. If Davos was tied to a dead mafia, I dont know where that really leaves me?

I dont think it's both of you is a main issue which is tough because I know a huge part of late game has been 'just clear the other thread'

Aye, well I'm also at the point where Epi/WWA's vote swapping almost seems coordinated, but I also think i'm beyond tinfoil mode.

It cant be though, no?

Unless teams became aware of each other or some other weird factor like a third wolf team

I mean, if landlords have 1 remaining that puts 1 team at 4.5 members. I don't know if it's too stretchy to think Arbiters could've started with 5 and we are now facing a 2v2v1.

I hope that's not the case and that's why it's merely tinfoil.

I mean

I dont think that works? Or hope not at least??

But wouldnt that also have meant one team had reached parity by this point? Or would they still need to take the other side out first?

?_? either way I hope that's just tinfoil LMAO

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:52 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:49 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:45 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:44 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:37 pm I dunno

I'm focusing too much on puppet mech I'm unsure about considering the time I've had in this has been so limited

On a broader scale, I do think final landlord lies within you two but like. If Davos was tied to a dead mafia, I dont know where that really leaves me?

I dont think it's both of you is a main issue which is tough because I know a huge part of late game has been 'just clear the other thread'

Aye, well I'm also at the point where Epi/WWA's vote swapping almost seems coordinated, but I also think i'm beyond tinfoil mode.

It cant be though, no?

Unless teams became aware of each other or some other weird factor like a third wolf team

I mean, if landlords have 1 remaining that puts 1 team at 4.5 members. I don't know if it's too stretchy to think Arbiters could've started with 5 and we are now facing a 2v2v1.

I hope that's not the case and that's why it's merely tinfoil.

I mean

I dont think that works? Or hope not at least??

But wouldnt that also have meant one team had reached parity by this point? Or would they still need to take the other side out first?

?_? either way I hope that's just tinfoil LMAO

it is. lol.

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:27 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:43 pm Ties will not result in no-elimination

??

Ohhhhh
Idk how I missed that ok then, so you think the vote randed?

Final hour pings.

@Delta, @Epignosis, @leetic, I'm town. I think the games toast if I go over. If the game continues after my flip, yeet WWA into the sun. WWA's entire argument against why their worldview was incorrect was bunkus and I wonder what y'all think regarding that tbh.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:56 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:27 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:43 pm Ties will not result in no-elimination

??

Ohhhhh
Idk how I missed that ok then, so you think the vote randed?

did you think ties were a no vote? !_!

OH shit it did rand as well I thought it was a 3:2 vote or something

fuck okay now I'm following why Wilgy mentioned stalling nvm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:49 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:45 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:44 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:37 pm I dunno

I'm focusing too much on puppet mech I'm unsure about considering the time I've had in this has been so limited

On a broader scale, I do think final landlord lies within you two but like. If Davos was tied to a dead mafia, I dont know where that really leaves me?

I dont think it's both of you is a main issue which is tough because I know a huge part of late game has been 'just clear the other thread'

Aye, well I'm also at the point where Epi/WWA's vote swapping almost seems coordinated, but I also think i'm beyond tinfoil mode.

It cant be though, no?

Unless teams became aware of each other or some other weird factor like a third wolf team

I mean, if landlords have 1 remaining that puts 1 team at 4.5 members. I don't know if it's too stretchy to think Arbiters could've started with 5 and we are now facing a 2v2v1.

I hope that's not the case and that's why it's merely tinfoil.

If we're facing 5 arbiters I think we've already lost tbh
Cause that's too many wolves in the game imo

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:58 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:49 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:45 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:44 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:37 pm I dunno

I'm focusing too much on puppet mech I'm unsure about considering the time I've had in this has been so limited

On a broader scale, I do think final landlord lies within you two but like. If Davos was tied to a dead mafia, I dont know where that really leaves me?

I dont think it's both of you is a main issue which is tough because I know a huge part of late game has been 'just clear the other thread'

Aye, well I'm also at the point where Epi/WWA's vote swapping almost seems coordinated, but I also think i'm beyond tinfoil mode.

It cant be though, no?

Unless teams became aware of each other or some other weird factor like a third wolf team

I mean, if landlords have 1 remaining that puts 1 team at 4.5 members. I don't know if it's too stretchy to think Arbiters could've started with 5 and we are now facing a 2v2v1.

I hope that's not the case and that's why it's merely tinfoil.

If we're facing 5 arbiters I think we've already lost tbh
Cause that's too many wolves in the game imo

Agreed

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:56 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:56 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:27 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:43 pm Ties will not result in no-elimination

??

Ohhhhh
Idk how I missed that ok then, so you think the vote randed?

did you think ties were a no vote? !_!

No, but I thought there would be some kind of host message about the vote randing if it was a rand
Isn't there usually something about that?

Also, sorry, I fell asleep lmao. I'll stick around till eod though.

bunkus

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:04 pmbunkus

?

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:00 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:56 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:56 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:27 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:43 pm Ties will not result in no-elimination

??

Ohhhhh
Idk how I missed that ok then, so you think the vote randed?

did you think ties were a no vote? !_!

No, but I thought there would be some kind of host message about the vote randing if it was a rand
Isn't there usually something about that?

eh

I assume the opener saying its not decided by no elim implies a more specific way it's decided? so doesnt need to clarify if its randed or not?

I'm honestly not too sure, I was thinking more 'the puppet doesnt have vote power' regardless

I *still* think Davos's vote didn't count, regardless of what the OP says about ties
You can get on my case for it, it's fine, but I don't believe that was randomized

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:05 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:00 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:56 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:56 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:27 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:43 pm Ties will not result in no-elimination

??

Ohhhhh
Idk how I missed that ok then, so you think the vote randed?

did you think ties were a no vote? !_!

No, but I thought there would be some kind of host message about the vote randing if it was a rand
Isn't there usually something about that?

eh

I assume the opener saying its not decided by no elim implies a more specific way it's decided? so doesnt need to clarify if its randed or not?

I'm honestly not too sure, I was thinking more 'the puppet doesnt have vote power' regardless

Yeah, that's the thing, I'm pretty sure I said a day or two ago that I had a thought that Davos didn't have a real vote. Because I went and analyzed Davos's voting pattern in the East Facility and noticed very curiously that it never landed on a wagon that actually flipped.

Yeah, five arbiters is probably a bit much and probably would mean the game is essentially settled by now. Then again, five landlords (counting Davos) isn't much better. Five per team would result in 10/32 wolves or a bit under 33%, which is acceptable for multiball but only if wolves kill every night, and if it's been alternating like people say it's a bit hard to see there being that much.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:06 pm I *still* think Davos's vote didn't count, regardless of what the OP says about ties
You can get on my case for it, it's fine, but I don't believe that was randomized

That's basically unfalsifiable at this point. Although if Davos's votes don't count, why did they vote at all?

leetic wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:10 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:06 pm I *still* think Davos's vote didn't count, regardless of what the OP says about ties
You can get on my case for it, it's fine, but I don't believe that was randomized

That's basically unfalsifiable at this point. Although if Davos's votes don't count, why did they vote at all?

WIFOM, or else voting people did something else mechanically

Wait, why do you say unfalsifiable?

leetic wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:10 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:06 pm I *still* think Davos's vote didn't count, regardless of what the OP says about ties
You can get on my case for it, it's fine, but I don't believe that was randomized

That's basically unfalsifiable at this point. Although if Davos's votes don't count, why did they vote at all?

But why though?

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:06 pm I *still* think Davos's vote didn't count, regardless of what the OP says about ties
You can get on my case for it, it's fine, but I don't believe that was randomized

Sure would be a shame if ties were arbiter controlled right?

leetic wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:09 pm Yeah, five arbiters is probably a bit much and probably would mean the game is essentially settled by now. Then again, five landlords (counting Davos) isn't much better. Five per team would result in 10/32 wolves or a bit under 33%, which is acceptable for multiball but only if wolves kill every night, and if it's been alternating like people say it's a bit hard to see there being that much.

There were multi kills for like 4 rounds lol

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:15 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:06 pm I *still* think Davos's vote didn't count, regardless of what the OP says about ties
You can get on my case for it, it's fine, but I don't believe that was randomized

Sure would be a shame if ties were arbiter controlled right?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:15 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:06 pm I *still* think Davos's vote didn't count, regardless of what the OP says about ties
You can get on my case for it, it's fine, but I don't believe that was randomized

Sure would be a shame if ties were arbiter controlled right?

I think that would be too imbalanced if they win all ties
Plus in the bigger picture, you would've seen more tied wagons, or at least an attempt to create them

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:13 pm Wait, why do you say unfalsifiable?

They're dead; we can no longer test such an idea

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:16 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:09 pm Yeah, five arbiters is probably a bit much and probably would mean the game is essentially settled by now. Then again, five landlords (counting Davos) isn't much better. Five per team would result in 10/32 wolves or a bit under 33%, which is acceptable for multiball but only if wolves kill every night, and if it's been alternating like people say it's a bit hard to see there being that much.

There were multi kills for like 4 rounds lol

Yeah and those kills didn't really look like they were coming from town
I believe they were from the two wolf teams and one or both of the 3ps.
The only kill that I never figured out an explanation for was the poison on TSP, but I believe it was probably some kind of one-shot thing because we didn't see a poison on any other day.

leetic wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:17 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:13 pm Wait, why do you say unfalsifiable?

They're dead; we can no longer test such an idea

Ah yeah
I thought you meant there was evidence pointing one way or another

@WindwardAway what is the plan when I flip town?

Delta, why didn't you vote Day 7?

I just get the impression you're mired in mechanical discussion and afraid to make any kind of enemy.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:34 pm Delta, why didn't you vote Day 7?

I froze up because I wasnt sure if voting Davos was the right move but thought Windward towntold near EOD so I was stuck kinda. decision paralysis I guess

& it's silly, I shouldnt have, but it caught me because i thought their final posts EOD were townie

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:30 pm @WindwardAway what is the plan when I flip town?

Honestly, I think we just lose if you flip town
I've put all my eggs in one basket, there is still a wolf in the West but I have much higher certainty on you
If you flip town I'm already way off-base anyway, I haven't reconsidered leetic since yesterday and I haven't reconsidered Epi since days ago. I think it's very simply just Delta and you, but I'm less sure on Delta.
If it's Epi, I probably lose to him in all scenarios, so maybe I should actually give it some thought. I believe he's the towniest currently, though.
Leetic I would reconsider if you flip town, because of their switch from pushing me to pushing you yesterday. It's not really that their push means much, since the wolves aren't partnered, but moreso that I have to widen my PoE if you aren't a wolf.
I plan on reading through Delta's ISO again, too, because I have mixed feelings on them.

Delta wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:35 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:34 pm Delta, why didn't you vote Day 7?

I froze up because I wasnt sure if voting Davos was the right move but thought Windward towntold near EOD so I was stuck kinda. decision paralysis I guess

& it's silly, I shouldnt have, but it caught me because i thought their final posts EOD were townie

Pretty sure you didn't vote in a couple of days before that