The Syndicate

i mean its just vulgard/c4/dya right?

Amy wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:38 pm in light of c4 not having carried i think spf's reaction is just town

zack visor probably also just town

sunbae probably real, vulgard wolf, marl locktown

remaining in c4/dya/arete/chloe/dizzy/nutella

and i still think nutella/chloe are v v unlikely (tho vulgard flip sours me on chloe a bit)

i broadly agree with this but why do you townread chloe so much

does vulgard try to hardbus c4 like that?

thats the main thing holding me back

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:41 pm i mean its just vulgard/c4/dya right?

due diligence bubba

quick skim of vulgards posts has him tring c4 yesterday fwiw

Alison wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 6:26 pm No I just toggled back and forth between catching up and reading the latest page. That's a pretty silly accusation.

I've been honest about my detachment from the thread from literally my first post, and tbh it's also pretty WIM reducing to tell you all that Gavial is town, be proven correct, and then run up for TMI.

I think there is at least 1 in Amy/dya, and [c4, Dizzy] would constitute the rest of my POE. You're an unknown. Vulgard/Sunbae/nutella/Arete/Chloe are not really concerns.

Visor/Zack are in the "idk but they haven't pinged me" category. I see others have suspicions there so since I'm not confident on them my plan is to focus on what I am confident on, specifically my POE and towncore, and just sheep my townreads on Visor/Zack.

alison's reads fwiw

(the "you're an unknown" is addressed to spf)

The only other big brain scenario I can imagine is:

- vVulgard claims jk to wMarl
- wC4 carries kill on vulgard
- no kill
- wolves think c4 outed, marl initiates bus
- hilarity ensues

no idea how amy gets a track in that scenario

seems unlikely?

Amy wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:41 pm does vulgard try to hardbus c4 like that?

thats the main thing holding me back

I still think he's a villager but with that being said hardbussing people is within his wolfrange (particularly if he expects them to sink anyways), he prefers to powerwolf but he's not, like, a 'never bus' type or a 'never bus more than slightly' type

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:30 pm i think c4 wasnt outed but made outed wolf posts anyway (we've all done the same shit he did when weve been outed as a wolf)

i thought this at the time, but it feels like he's more likely v from the vulgard thing?

maybe you're right and dya/c4 both still fit (I still feel worse about dya and am not totally sold on their w/w equity) but in retrospect I can see his posts after marl's claim as coming from a confused villager

i think vulgard was just tryna go deep when he knows the village is gonna catch onto c4 and dya

i got other stuff to do today so dont expect any digging here

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:44 pm quick skim of vulgards posts has him tring c4 yesterday fwiw

I already pointed this out you absolute buffoon, you complete fool, you blubbering lump of flesh

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:45 pm The only other big brain scenario I can imagine is:

- vVulgard claims jk to wMarl
- wC4 carries kill on vulgard
- no kill
- wolves think c4 outed, marl initiates bus
- hilarity ensues

no idea how amy gets a track in that scenario

seems unlikely?

yeah i mean if wolves dont kill amy, they have to rb amy

tbh i feel like v!c4 should have doubted the claim? since I'd already outlined that the jk's target was essentially a redcheck

so maybe he's just a wolf lol

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:45 pm i think vulgard was just tryna go deep when he knows the village is gonna catch onto c4 and dya

i got other stuff to do today so dont expect any digging here

but we know that vulgard claimed JK to marl last night, so that implies that vulgard did not intend to live until endgame, doesn't it?

zack ill talk about chloe more after i eat but the short version is their d2 opening felt very "thank god i subbed into a town slot"

Amy wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:48 pm tbh i feel like v!c4 should have doubted the claim? since I'd already outlined that the jk's target was essentially a redcheck

so maybe he's just a wolf lol

well his response was

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:51 pm I'm gonna say that's probably not true but I've seen weirder kills.

which is doubting it and/or thinking he was somehow the kill target

but yeah it feels a bit unnatural

would currently lean on it being vulgard/dyachei/(?)

the fact that vulgard had a strategy that he ensured that he literally ~couldnt~ go deep makes me feel like the answer to the third wolf is not as easy as like, c4/arete

but i think that we have enough of the pieces to figure it out

i dont think vulgard was intending for it to be a proper claim

i think he was doing it for town cred raisins

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:48 pm

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:45 pm i think vulgard was just tryna go deep when he knows the village is gonna catch onto c4 and dya

i got other stuff to do today so dont expect any digging here

but we know that vulgard claimed JK to marl last night, so that implies that vulgard did not intend to live until endgame, doesn't it?

seems pretty simple to play that off as "oh i was vt seeing if i could bait a kill" or whatever no? i don't think that's an unreasonable play for a vt even if he was townreading marl

Ok I'm back now

I think c4 is still wolfy for how he behaved around alison. I need to peek at EOD2 again to get a better feel on who else.

bronana wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:52 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:48 pm

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:45 pm i think vulgard was just tryna go deep when he knows the village is gonna catch onto c4 and dya

i got other stuff to do today so dont expect any digging here

but we know that vulgard claimed JK to marl last night, so that implies that vulgard did not intend to live until endgame, doesn't it?

seems pretty simple to play that off as "oh i was vt seeing if i could bait a kill" or whatever no? i don't think that's an unreasonable play for a vt even if he was townreading marl

mm i guess it's hard to say without knowing the full context of how he claimed to marluxion

it sounded to me like vulgard put a lot of effort into convincing marl that his claim was real, which would imply to me that it's not something he intended to retract and then brush off - seems more likely he was positioning himself to claim JK later in the game and got caught offguard by being guiltied today

he also could have planned on marl being dead before it became relevant anyway

vulgard was in an excellent position to go deep so i don't know why he would be planning not to unless you think like, nutella is a wolf or someone like that even deeper than vulgard

also if nutella is a wolf she just carries the kill cause nobody jks her

(nobody gonna jk her when aiming to hit a wolf cause you either jk amy or try to hit a wolf - nobody had her as a wolf really)

bronana wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:55 pm he also could have planned on marl being dead before it became relevant anyway

it doesn't make sense for wolf!Vul to plan around Marl being dead within the next couple of phases because he would have known that Marl was VT/otherwise non PR

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 9:02 pm

bronana wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:55 pm he also could have planned on marl being dead before it became relevant anyway

it doesn't make sense for wolf!Vul to plan around Marl being dead within the next couple of phases because he would have known that Marl was VT/otherwise non PR

amy is just an ic and vul possibly just wanted to figure out if marl was jk

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 9:03 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 9:02 pm

bronana wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:55 pm he also could have planned on marl being dead before it became relevant anyway

it doesn't make sense for wolf!Vul to plan around Marl being dead within the next couple of phases because he would have known that Marl was VT/otherwise non PR

amy is just an ic and vul possibly just wanted to figure out if marl was jk

I feel like Marl claiming JK, then rescinding and saying it was just a reactiontest to gauge his alignment and that he's actually not the JK, would have been a pretty major clue that Marl wasn't JK

but I guess I don't know exactly how it went down in the neighborhood

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:53 pm

bronana wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:52 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:48 pm

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:45 pm i think vulgard was just tryna go deep when he knows the village is gonna catch onto c4 and dya

i got other stuff to do today so dont expect any digging here

but we know that vulgard claimed JK to marl last night, so that implies that vulgard did not intend to live until endgame, doesn't it?

seems pretty simple to play that off as "oh i was vt seeing if i could bait a kill" or whatever no? i don't think that's an unreasonable play for a vt even if he was townreading marl

mm i guess it's hard to say without knowing the full context of how he claimed to marluxion

it sounded to me like vulgard put a lot of effort into convincing marl that his claim was real, which would imply to me that it's not something he intended to retract and then brush off - seems more likely he was positioning himself to claim JK later in the game and got caught offguard by being guiltied today

i am still pretty confused by this yeah

again with the kill being on amy, he definitely wasn't expecting to actually be blocked because he *had* been deep

so the c4 thing...... hm. if he was expecting the kill to go through then maybe he hoped marl would think he blocked c4 and thus make c4 look better. but also it hardly even makes sense to have thought c4 would carry last night since he looked quite bad from eod. so. yeah visor's probably right and this actually looks quite bad on c4 now

@outed wolf if the team is vulgard/c4/dya, do you think c4 and dya still focus entirely on bussing one another after vul is outed? I'm having trouble with that tbh, I mean if that's the team they're basically screwed and idk what their ~path to victory~ would be and maybe it's reverse psychology but... idk

Plus I'm concerned about chloe

c4 was already bussing dya

Like sure if they're teammates they were already hard distancing and they can't just shift away from that

I have a hard time seeing their pressure on each other as w/w to begin with though. Like were they both posturing to look bad from the Alison flip in opposite ways?

nutella wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 9:28 pm Like sure if they're teammates they were already hard distancing and they can't just shift away from that

I have a hard time seeing their pressure on each other as w/w to begin with though. Like were they both posturing to look bad from the Alison flip in opposite ways?

dya was in very real contention to die until the last few hours of the day

names in tiers are unordered

-----

bronana

amy
sunbae

marluxion
outed wolf

nutella

spf

don't really think any of the above are wolves except maybe nutella or more likely spf in some jank world

---- line of demarcation ----

arete
dizzy

don't really think they are wolves but can't bring myself to not keep them in consideration

------

c4
chloe
dya

vulgard

swap you/me, maybe swap spf/visor and that's p much my list rn


need to dig into chloe and dizzy a bit

i think arete is more likely to be a wolf than dizzy off the top of my head

nutella wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 9:28 pm Like sure if they're teammates they were already hard distancing and they can't just shift away from that

I have a hard time seeing their pressure on each other as w/w to begin with though. Like were they both posturing to look bad from the Alison flip in opposite ways?

dya knew they were gonna die early on and just wanted to kill alison on the way out

apparently c4 is a busser - might be worth checking the timing of his push

i dont think dizzy has played this game according to a c4/dya wolfteam

tbh

nutella wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 9:49 pm swap you/me, maybe swap spf/visor and that's p much my list rn


need to dig into chloe and dizzy a bit

tubular

actually

hm

@bronana talk to me more about your view on dya overnight

nice xpost

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 9:51 pm i dont think dizzy has played this game according to a c4/dya wolfteam

tbh

they seem fairly unaligned in general

nutella wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 9:53 pm actually

hm

@bronana talk to me more about your view on dya overnight

in the poe but I could see them being town pending their d3

so far i find their d3 lifeless

i think dya has largely been busy today tbf

Amy wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 10:09 pm i think dya has largely been busy today tbf

i meant the posts themselves not the overall activity level fwiw

i think it would be normal for them to feel at least a bit deflated as a villager too after how yesterday ended up and being thrust back in the thick of the POE

but it's a big meh for me so far

i take no issue w/dya being inactive and i trust that they are genuinely busy regardless of their alignment. i feel that their opening posts today are wolfy because they lack the perspective of a villager that just incorrectly tunneled on another villager for 2 days straight - it felt to me like they were more interested in figuring out who to set their sights on next instead of re-evaluating the game as a whole and figuring out where to go from there. there is a lack of general consideration and a lack of holistic thinking in dyachei's posts that make me feel like they're a wolf above all else. of course, i am open to changing my mind if they start towntelling, but as things stand, i think that they're just a wolf

i have some other stuff to say, but it can wait. i probably won't be posting for the rest of the night but feel free to @ me if needed

I'm in a weird place right now where I want to solve things that aren't just Vul/Sunbae

but the Vul/Sunbae thing is obviously super important for that

and even though Vulgard is 99 percent just the villager there's still a little part of me that's scared that I'll start looking through Sunbae for associations and Vulgard will get back and start lolcatting

weh

I skimmed through Sunbae's Iso hoping to find a smoking gun that would prove he's a lying wolf but sadly I didn't find one

alternatively if Vul gets back and doesn't immediately openwolf I can spend every one of my posts defending him and pushing Sunbae, I have a hundred and forty of them today

????

@Arete -

if you insist that vulgard is the villager between vulgard/sunbae, can you please explain the following posts for me?

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:29 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:07 pm that makes two days in a row where I ended the day with dyachei as one of my strongest suspects, only to not feel confident to push the momentum in the direction of their chop

im done with that. i want dya gone today and if they're a villager then I take responsibility for it

I'm going to sleep soon but I need to ask this.

Are you still shielding c4? I have some thoughts about dya myself but I need to ask this first.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:36 pm I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:30 pm

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:25 pm VULGARD AND I BOTH LIVED ITS ACTUALLY A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE

Marl are you seeing what I'm seeing?

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:41 pm

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:39 pm

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:36 pm I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.

Should I tell them

I don't think you'll have to? Up to you though.

in post number one, vulgard asks me a pointed question about whether or not i am still shielding c4

in post number two, vulgard says that he understands why people want to turboyeet dya, but that there's something "else" he wants to discuss first. this is clearly implying that vulgard has a guilty on someone that isnt dyachei

in post number three, vulgard asks marl if he's seeing what he's seeing

in post number four, (and this is the most important part), vulgard gives marluxion the option to claim for him

vulgard was okay with marluxion fakeclaiming his guilty for him, and vulgard's top FOS throughout his conversation with marl was on c4. marls says it himself right here:

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:11 pm

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:08 pm pretty sure vulgard baited him into claiming to throw shade at the day and out me but my hands are tied and i cant let the day be spent clearing vulgard and casing c4

Okay so
I fake claimed jk to him at night
And then when he had a townyish reaction I outed that my claim was an fps to try to bait the kill

And then he claimed jk

And the last person he was talking about was c4 and his he didn't understand spfs shield on them.

So when he said "marl are you seeing what I'm seeing" I thought he was trying to get me to figure out his jail and die and flip vt so he could get another jail off

so, if vulgard didn't have a guilty on c4, why would he be okay with marluxion claiming for him? how the hell would marluxion even know who his guilty was on if it wasn't on c4? and doesn't the language of vulgard's post toward marluxion (the one where he says: "you might not even need to claim for me") imply that his guilty was on someone that already had a lot of scrutiny? how the hell does that fit in a world where vulgard investigated someone like sunbae?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 10:45 pm i take no issue w/dya being inactive and i trust that they are genuinely busy regardless of their alignment. i feel that their opening posts today are wolfy because they lack the perspective of a villager that just incorrectly tunneled on another villager for 2 days straight - it felt to me like they were more interested in figuring out who to set their sights on next instead of re-evaluating the game as a whole and figuring out where to go from there. there is a lack of general consideration and a lack of holistic thinking in dyachei's posts that make me feel like they're a wolf above all else. of course, i am open to changing my mind if they start towntelling, but as things stand, i think that they're just a wolf

i have some other stuff to say, but it can wait. i probably won't be posting for the rest of the night but feel free to @ me if needed

agree with this. the limited focus thing and their posts themselves feeling flat is still a biiiiiig issue for me and i need more substance

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 10:52 pm I'm in a weird place right now where I want to solve things that aren't just Vul/Sunbae

but the Vul/Sunbae thing is obviously super important for that

and even though Vulgard is 99 percent just the villager there's still a little part of me that's scared that I'll start looking through Sunbae for associations and Vulgard will get back and start lolcatting

weh

I skimmed through Sunbae's Iso hoping to find a smoking gun that would prove he's a lying wolf but sadly I didn't find one

alternatively if Vul gets back and doesn't immediately openwolf I can spend every one of my posts defending him and pushing Sunbae, I have a hundred and forty of them today

why do you think vul is 99% v

idgi

are you just openwolfing

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:01 pm in post number one, vulgard asks me a pointed question about whether or not i am still shielding c4

in post number two, vulgard says that he understands why people want to turboyeet dya, but that there's something "else" he wants to discuss first. this is clearly implying that vulgard has a guilty on someone that isnt dyachei

in post number three, vulgard asks marl if he's seeing what he's seeing

in post number four, (and this is the most important part), vulgard gives marluxion the option to claim for him

I don't know

I didn't see Marl and Vulgard's chat, Marl says that Vul seemed to be not scumreading Sunbae but I don't know what he actually said about them

It's also possible that he jailkept c4 but in that case I have literally no idea what Sunbae is doing. The theory about Vul jailkeeping Sunbae was mostly me trying to rationalize Sunbae's behavior and it's possible that I came up with the wrong rationalization.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:01 pm doesn't the language of vulgard's post toward marluxion (the one where he says: "you might not even need to claim for me") imply that his guilty was on someone that already had a lot of scrutiny? how the hell does that fit in a world where vulgard investigated someone like sunbae?

Bronana had just voted Sunbae, in P#2683. C4 was under suspicion at that time but actually didn't have any votes, Sunbae and Dya were the only people to have votes before Marl claimed.