The Syndicate

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:20 pm**

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:18 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:16 pm what is the plan though

like what do you want me to do
Redirect me to rabbit probably

I want to be hard cleared like all the cool kids
nah ur already hard cleared imo

I mean I don’t think I’m mech cleared but I’ll accept it kek

Nutella also a good redirect cause her being hard cleared is pretty good imo

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:21 pm**

can i redirect myself to myself so when i don’t die i will be hard cleared wowee emote

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:21 pm**

nutella + tutuu + lc now come as a package together in tinfoilland (because check on nutella plus nutella having to be scum with lc for radishes to be town)

hally lc also comes as a package in tinfoilland (due to claimed redir mech)

amy nanook also now comes as a package in tinfoilland (due to amys clear on nanook)

occams razor is definitely "its just amy"

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:22 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:40 pm I'll wait until the next 9 to force start the day, but if I get actions in early and get around to it I'll start sooner rather than later.

[mention]Amy[/mention] [mention]WerewolfHunter[/mention]

(wwh use ur ability on, like, Amy or LC something idk. or holster. idk.)

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:23 pm**

tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:22 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:40 pm I'll wait until the next 9 to force start the day, but if I get actions in early and get around to it I'll start sooner rather than later.
@Amy @WerewolfHunter

(wwh use ur ability on, like, Amy or LC something idk. or holster. idk.)

8 I think

Apparently I can't use it anymore. Why didn't I read it more carefully lol

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:26 pm**

if we accept nut as town radishes is basically always mafia js

i mean radishes has always been mafia but like... for those of you who don’t know

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:31 pm**

if there is a reason that me redirecting amy to a person of my choosing is a very bad idea speak now otherwise catch ya on the flip side

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:35 pm**

if i'm getting redirected i won't announce who i'm targeting, then

still town

4/30

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:36 pm**

Amy wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:35 pm if i'm getting redirected i won't announce who i'm targeting, then

still town

4/30

have you had any opinions on who the scum might be, like, for the last 3 phases?

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:38 pm**

iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:36 pm
Amy wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:35 pm if i'm getting redirected i won't announce who i'm targeting, then

still town

4/30
have you had any opinions on who the scum might be, like, for the last 3 phases?

no, cause y'all are playing a fucking 48/24 light game like it's a 12/12 nightless and every time i come back into the thread you've already killed 2 extra people and have some plan in place where it seems like the smartest course of action is to wait to see what the night results are or some shit

if you would stop fucking QUICKHAMMERING people and gave me time to fucking THINK about the game in a fucking LIGHT game then my posts would probably be better!

5/30

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:42 pm**

like seriously i feel so fucking off balance this game and i don't know how to get back to it

i signed up specifically for a light game because i wanted to chill and occasionally pop-in to do some solving but every time i come back i find out that i've missed an entire fucking PHASE

6/30

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:42 pm**

but u can post in the night?

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:43 pm**

hey if I had it my way you'd have been freed d3

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:58 pm**

Is it hammered?? [VOTE: proto] aubergine

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:59 pm**

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:58 pm Is it hammered?? [VOTE: proto] aubergine

ya we just speed hammered proto

can you claim your role yet; the poe is like just me and amy unless we're gonna tinfoil into { tutuu hally nanook nutella you } atp

24/30

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:59 pm**

you can't be scum unless hally is scum with you

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:01 pm**

iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:59 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:58 pm Is it hammered?? [VOTE: proto] aubergine
ya we just speed hammered proto

can you claim your role yet; the poe is like just me and amy unless we're gonna tinfoil into { tutuu hally nanook nutella you } atp

24/30

Dude you’re not in the POE unless Hally is mafia kek

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:01 pm**

(if amy is town)

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:02 pm**

Nooooooooo

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:02 pm**

LC are u gonna die for missing that hammer lol

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:05 pm**

maybe

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:06 pm**

or worse

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:08 pm**

*gulps*

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:08 pm**

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:01 pm
iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:59 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:58 pm Is it hammered?? [VOTE: proto] aubergine
ya we just speed hammered proto

can you claim your role yet; the poe is like just me and amy unless we're gonna tinfoil into { tutuu hally nanook nutella you } atp

24/30
Dude you’re not in the POE unless Hally is mafia kek

i didnt even read n3 tbh

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:09 pm**

iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:08 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:01 pm
iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:59 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:58 pm Is it hammered?? [VOTE: proto] aubergine
ya we just speed hammered proto

can you claim your role yet; the poe is like just me and amy unless we're gonna tinfoil into { tutuu hally nanook nutella you } atp

24/30
Dude you’re not in the POE unless Hally is mafia kek
i didnt even read n3 tbh

Tbf you were already town lulz

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:13 pm**

I haven't read the last three pages.

Hey guys, if you don't mind, please don't hammer again without me.

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:15 pm**

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:58 pm Is it hammered?? [VOTE: proto] aubergine

LMAO

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:16 pm**

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:58 pm Is it hammered?? [VOTE: proto] aubergine
LMAO

I thought we were homies.

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:16 pm**

I don't think proto is the last wolf. Is he the last wolf? His posts are awesomely towny if he's a wolf.

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:17 pm**

If he is I’m going to yell at tony

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:23 pm**

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:16 pm I don't think proto is the last wolf. Is he the last wolf? His posts are awesomely towny if he's a wolf.

Mood

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:24 pm**

i think protos town flip was pretty villagery of him ngl

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:36 pm**

tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:23 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:16 pm I don't think proto is the last wolf. Is he the last wolf? His posts are awesomely towny if he's a wolf.
Mood

I'm too old to do more than vaguely grasp what you really mean

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:36 pm**

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:24 pm i think protos town flip was pretty villagery of him ngl

wait he flipped???

Oh I'm a fool

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:37 pm**

I am the best derpclear guy in town, and I accept all challengers

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:41 pm**

Amy
Hally
iaafr
Long Con
NANOOK
nutella
Tutuu
WerewolfHunter

one of these players dies tonight; hopefully it's tutuu, because i'd like to stop tinfoiling there

the kills suggest to me that at least one person we consider "clear" is wolfing; this does not preclude iaafr from being a wolf (though if there's something mech clearing on him please lmk) but like... why kill tim? why kill colin? tim is defensible as a medic dodge, but colin was killed after we punted benson into the sun. you can argue that they're potentially powerful PRs, but then why is hally still alive? for tinfoil, you say. fine. why is tutuu still alive?

in the best case world, there is one wolf left; in the worst case world, there are three. i sincerely HOPE we aren't thinking of quickhammering me tomorrow, because if we do and we live in the worst case world, we lose. full stop. hopefully hally's redirect will at the very least prove i'm not killing anyone tonight, given that i'm fucking town

let's revisit mechanical backing for each player's innocence

Hally - confirmed redirector via Colin; alignment uncertain
iaafr - none, to my knowledge? please correct me if i'm wrong
Long Con - claimed broken vest SOD2; if hally is telling the truth, MUST be town if radishes was scum
NANOOK - shot bob D2; claim backed by my check
nutella - claimed unCC'd shot on radishes; lack of scum kill theoretically explained by the breaking of Long Con's vest
Tutuu - basically alignment cop; outed bob D2
WWH - ability confirmed via vote mechanics; peeked green by Tutuu

so let's see here

nanook i'm never touching; i effectively have a green peek on him, and while i'm willing to believe a wolf would fakeclaim alignment cop to bus her partner, i'm not willing to believe a wolf would waste a 1x dayvig on it

i do not want to flip WWH while Tutuu's alive; i believe the odds of her being a godfather are... actually somewhat low? while i think her ability easily works as a wolf ability, i think it's a somewhat clever way to introduce a role that isn't necessarily super powerful when used by a villager; i think her play has been fairly villagery ever since being peeked, and i honestly think that even if Tutuu's a wolf WWH is probably a villager

nutella-Hally-LC remains the axis that needs the most solving. this will probably require rereading. iaafr will also require rereading since i'm going to have to read him on his actual posts

thoughts on remaining wolf numbers:

there is a chance that we are looking at 1 wolf remaining, with radishes a dead wolf. i no longer believe this is the case. i think there's just too much town power no matter who's lying about their alignment. i think it's much more likely that we are looking at 2 wolves remaining, or even 3 if radishes was a villager - and i sincerely hope radishes wasn't a villager

thinking about claims. i think nutella's claim actually makes a lot of sense as a villager role in this game, given my own role and some of the other roles that have flipped. i think nutella might actually be my pick for the least likely wolf in the nutella-hally-LC triad; my one caveat is her sheer certainty that radishes is a wolf, but if the hit% discrepancy with her role is really that high? i kinda buy it. also don't think LC's a wolf - him legitimately having his vest broken makes too much sense, and while i know LC seems like a weird kill in a vacuum, look at the other NKs in this game. you can't say he doesn't fit the pattern

here's a potential solve: radishes wolf. hally wolf. tutuu wolf. this solves a lot of the issues we've been having with regards to "holy balls there's a lot of town power". hally's really a redirector, but a wolf redirector; tutuu's role is something else entirely, god only knows what it is. i think the speed at which the game is progressing can largely be attributed to those two (and iaafr, but iaafr feels pretty antiligned with hally lol) and the lack of reevaluation fits. if wolves are killing strong PRs, why are they alive? why are they killing from the bottom of the PoE with a fucking ALIGNMENT COP still alive? cause the alignment cop's a wolf

lolme starting this post with "i'd like to stop tinfoiling Tutuu". think she's just gotta be a wolf here. but i never flip her before hally. there's like... a nonzero chance i'm wrong, and that it's like. just iaafr left or something. but i think the hally/tutuu world makes more sense on a level of pure mechanics. beyond that? would have to reread

7?/30 i'll fix in future posts if this number's wrong

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:44 pm**

tl;dr i need to reread but i'm at "i wanna flip hally and go from there"

8/30 i was right ez

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:45 pm**

Hally redirected iaafr to wwh n3 amy, and i have a green peek on nutella n3

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:46 pm**

i guess potential mechanical backing for an iaafr clear is "i have a green on him if you think the greeks are classical"

this is not something i'm willing to bet the game on

9/30

linki: good to know. i don't think an iaafr redirect clears him because i think 2 wolves is an incredibly likely world at this point. green on nutella is noted

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:47 pm**

Sunday night is Dominion online game night a la zoom video with a few friends. Starts at 8pm. It also involves a steady stream of rye and cokes. I am not sure what the results are from the Grand Night Action Strategy that we employed, but if anyone wants to give a concise summary of What Info We Now Have, it would be helpful.

I'm still a bit drunk, and I'm going out to my workshop now, but at least I'll maybe have a chance to stop being a fool out here.

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:48 pm**

tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:45 pm Hally redirected iaafr to wwh n3 amy, and i have a green peek on nutella n3

Nutella's legit? Nice. Unless you are wolf with her of course, is that still mechanically possible?

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:53 pm**

Posted: **Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:59 pm**

Amy wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:41 pm Amy
Hally
iaafr
Long Con
NANOOK
nutella
Tutuu
WerewolfHunter

one of these players dies tonight; hopefully it's tutuu, because i'd like to stop tinfoiling there

the kills suggest to me that at least one person we consider "clear" is wolfing; this does not preclude iaafr from being a wolf (though if there's something mech clearing on him please lmk) but like... why kill tim? why kill colin? tim is defensible as a medic dodge, but colin was killed after we punted benson into the sun. you can argue that they're potentially powerful PRs, but then why is hally still alive? for tinfoil, you say. fine. why is tutuu still alive?

in the best case world, there is one wolf left; in the worst case world, there are three. i sincerely HOPE we aren't thinking of quickhammering me tomorrow, because if we do and we live in the worst case world, we lose. full stop. hopefully hally's redirect will at the very least prove i'm not killing anyone tonight, given that i'm fucking town

let's revisit mechanical backing for each player's innocence

Hally - confirmed redirector via Colin; alignment uncertain
iaafr - none, to my knowledge? please correct me if i'm wrong
Long Con - claimed broken vest SOD2; if hally is telling the truth, MUST be town if radishes was scum
NANOOK - shot bob D2; claim backed by my check
nutella - claimed unCC'd shot on radishes; lack of scum kill theoretically explained by the breaking of Long Con's vest
Tutuu - basically alignment cop; outed bob D2
WWH - ability confirmed via vote mechanics; peeked green by Tutuu

so let's see here

nanook i'm never touching; i effectively have a green peek on him, and while i'm willing to believe a wolf would fakeclaim alignment cop to bus her partner, i'm not willing to believe a wolf would waste a 1x dayvig on it

i do not want to flip WWH while Tutuu's alive; i believe the odds of her being a godfather are... actually somewhat low? while i think her ability easily works as a wolf ability, i think it's a somewhat clever way to introduce a role that isn't necessarily super powerful when used by a villager; i think her play has been fairly villagery ever since being peeked, and i honestly think that even if Tutuu's a wolf WWH is probably a villager

nutella-Hally-LC remains the axis that needs the most solving. this will probably require rereading. iaafr will also require rereading since i'm going to have to read him on his actual posts

thoughts on remaining wolf numbers:

there is a chance that we are looking at 1 wolf remaining, with radishes a dead wolf. i no longer believe this is the case. i think there's just too much town power no matter who's lying about their alignment. i think it's much more likely that we are looking at 2 wolves remaining, or even 3 if radishes was a villager - and i sincerely hope radishes wasn't a villager

thinking about claims. i think nutella's claim actually makes a lot of sense as a villager role in this game, given my own role and some of the other roles that have flipped. i think nutella might actually be my pick for the least likely wolf in the nutella-hally-LC triad; my one caveat is her sheer certainty that radishes is a wolf, but if the hit% discrepancy with her role is really that high? i kinda buy it. also don't think LC's a wolf - him legitimately having his vest broken makes too much sense, and while i know LC seems like a weird kill in a vacuum, look at the other NKs in this game. you can't say he doesn't fit the pattern

here's a potential solve: radishes wolf. hally wolf. tutuu wolf. this solves a lot of the issues we've been having with regards to "holy balls there's a lot of town power". hally's really a redirector, but a wolf redirector; tutuu's role is something else entirely, god only knows what it is. i think the speed at which the game is progressing can largely be attributed to those two (and iaafr, but iaafr feels pretty antiligned with hally lol) and the lack of reevaluation fits. if wolves are killing strong PRs, why are they alive? why are they killing from the bottom of the PoE with a fucking ALIGNMENT COP still alive? cause the alignment cop's a wolf

lolme starting this post with "i'd like to stop tinfoiling Tutuu". think she's just gotta be a wolf here. but i never flip her before hally. there's like... a nonzero chance i'm wrong, and that it's like. just iaafr left or something. but i think the hally/tutuu world makes more sense on a level of pure mechanics. beyond that? would have to reread

7?/30 i'll fix in future posts if this number's wrong

idk how you think me/radishes is w/w ever. that is what you’re suggesting here right?

also why does tutuu redpeek a teammate as a wolf? i don’t understand. she was under zero pressure to have to do that

the mech thing iaafr has going for him is that if he was the last wolf alive wwh would have died instead of colin due to my redirect. i suppose he can be a second wolf in some world but idfk what that is

here’s the thing: i’m town. to me radishes is lock scum and nut and lc are always town. always

who is a wolf then?

Posted: **Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:13 am**

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:59 pmidk how you think me/radishes is w/w ever. that is what you’re suggesting here right?

we already established that we were willing to believe in bussing early on, yes? sure radishes contributed a hell of a lot more than KZA, but he was a highly consensus scumread by basically the entire game. if radishes thought he was dead and buried, it makes sense for his teammates to bus him and go deep.

also why does tutuu redpeek a teammate as a wolf? i don’t understand. she was under zero pressure to have to do that

bob also felt fairly consensus? tbh this is the part of my tutuu tinfoil that i'm least sure of. i'd have to reread from d1, probably, because i do agree that there's little motivation to do that. the issue is that if i clear her i start running out of wolves. somebody's gotta be a wolf.

the mech thing iaafr has going for him is that if he was the last wolf alive wwh would have died instead of colin due to my redirect. i suppose he can be a second wolf in some world but idfk what that is

yes i noted this above. i'm not 100% sure who rabbit would fit as a wolf with; tbh i lean town on rabbit anyways? but he's not out of the PoE off a single redirect. i honestly just refuse to believe the game is imbalanced enough that there's only 4 wolves with THIS much apparent town power running around. it doesn't make sense.

here’s the thing: i’m town. to me radishes is lock scum and nut and lc are always town. always

who is a wolf then?

let me see if i can humor you

in a world where you/nut/lc are all confirmed town and radishes is scum... throw nanook and WWH onto the townpile for reasons i've already stated. that leaves exactly iaafr/tutuu. which off the top of my head doesn't seem like an IMpossible world? but it'd be odd for sure. it at the very least checks out that tutuu would be the one carrying kp in that pairing; if that's the world you buy into, you'd always flip tutuu over iaafr anyways because you have mech confirmation that iaafr can't be the last wolf. tutuu either ends the game or you can then proceed to flip iaafr afterwards

a question for you, and forgive me if you've already answered: why did you redirect colin away from you? i understand that you potentially didn't even think about colin's ability to clear you as a villager, but why did you think that was the best use of the redirect that night?

Posted: **Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:22 am**

thinking further

occam's razor suggests nutella v regardless of radishes' alignment; nutella v makes radishes w much much more likely.

for nutella to be a wolf, either she has to be a godfather or she has to be teamed with tutuu; either way, it also requires either radishes being town kp or hally also being a wolf. i find this a convoluted set of hoops to jump through and am thus comfortable locking nutella v and not revisiting unless the game is still going after both tutuu and hally are dead (and flipped red)

radishes w effectively clears LC in 99% of worlds; either hally is telling the truth and redirected radishes to LC, clearing them both, or hally is lying and her kill got blocked; if hally's kill got blocked, it MUST have either gotten eaten by LC's vest or blocked by benson. if it was blocked by benson, i believe that tutuu would have been killed the instant benson was dead; thus i believe that LC was almost certainly shot regardless of hally's alignment in a radishes w world, which is the likely world

...there's an absurd outside possibility that nutella and a wolfteam with hally on it doublestacked kills on v!radishes. this is not a world i choose to live in and if that's what happened then g fuckin g

so if i'm clearing nanook for dayvig+my own peek, i'm clearing WWH for being peeked+generally villagery play+a small bit of setup gaming, and i'm clearing nutella for the reasons above, the PoE becomes exactly Hally/iaafr/Tutuu. i think that's a narrow enough place to start

if anyone has any obvious holes in my logic that don't involve calling themselves a wolf or calling ME a wolf, please feel free to point them out. i guess if you wanna call yourself a villager or me a wolf you can also do that? but that doesn't necessarily help me solve the game lol, which is what i'd like to do

11/30

Posted: **Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:25 am**

i think the most likely misclear in my clears pile is WWH, but i don't feel strongly enough about that for it to concern me

at this point i'm very comfortable calling nanook and nutella villagers even if i think tutuu may be a wolf and thus the greenpeek on nut is fake

12/30

Posted: **Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:27 am**

9

I'm more jusr currently waiting for night to be over right now. I'm really just hoping we aren't so far off track with choosing who to yeet yet I still think we will ultimately win in the end

Posted: **Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:31 am**

WerewolfHunter wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:27 am 9

I'm more jusr currently waiting for night to be over right now. I'm really just hoping we aren't so far off track with choosing who to yeet yet I still think we will ultimately win in the end

talk to me very briefly. what does the gamestate look like from your point of view? where do you think we should go next?

13/30

Posted: **Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:33 am**

Who did Hally redirect N2 again? Totally blanking it tbh

Posted: **Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:34 am**

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:33 am Who did Hally redirect N2 again? Totally blanking it tbh

iirc that was the night she redirected colin, as part of testing colin's alignment

notably the original plan was for colin to just. track hally.

14/30

The Syndicate

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