The Syndicate

protocultures wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:49 pm in fact, i hate the whole concept of a public save pool now that it makes it 10 instead of 6. It wastes too many bunker saves and wish I could delete a lot of posts to hide my shameful math fail.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:27 pm usually a bad sign = usually I'm wrong about how things are going. but I'd be happy to be right

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:32 pm

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:53 am
* Epignosis is like only focused on protecting nutella in a stubborn/non-cooperative way, which is not helping town. They're also only reacting to posts that directly involves them throughout the thread, so they did read the rest, just didn't react. (Also poop reads.)

Hi.

I'm Epignosis.

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:00 am its weird to me that literally everyone be scumreading long con and the epi person r u guys metaing or wat. cuz im not seeing how r they so obv scummy but could be wrong idk

protocultures wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:33 pm I had the same issue on mobile. If you flip it to landscape mode, the buttons on the left hand side show up so you should be able to iso without going to page 1.

The lack of engagement with my grand plan to repulse the alien threat makes me sad.

Either people didnt read it, read it but didnt understand it and dont want to ask questions, or they are aliens who are scared of the grand plan.

town coming together with an agreed game plan is important in this setup. Having everyone go maverick/solo/secret night actions all the time is massively anti town imo. There isnt even any real benefit to individual scum hunting.

You either project town to Nutella or you dont. Beyond this, you try and figure out the best way to help town win.

The number of purely defensive posts is surprising to me, particularly from people with huge post counts (who i expect should know better).

If these people are going to come out with some awesome strat later on, I will sit down and shut up, but until then, should I not expect constructive posts on day 0? Is this like meme day 0 on forums?

To summarise again:

Assuming Day 0 (no shoot) --> Day 1 (laser shoot) --> Night 1 (alient 1KP)

We just need Nutella to rng 3 people from the 14 to bunker save Nutella, no exceptions. These people confirm receipt of the instruction from Nutella and nobody else stacks/wastes bunker saves on Nutella.

For the math, this is 1 minus (4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12) = 1 – 24/2184 = 98.9% because the only permutation where we lose laser Night 1, is if we rng 3 aliens. That is 3 bunker saves used out of a total of 40.
[If laser shoots a town on Day 1, the math changes slightly to 4/13 x 3/12 x 2/11, so we get 24/1,716, so 1.4% chance we insta lose first night. I am still okay with that. Odds get lower than 1.1% if laser shoots alien day 1. Either way, its so low, we shouldnt care about it.]

For the second part, I suggest we nominate 4 additional people to be bunker saved and identify who will save them. Nutella to nominate if town consensus cannot be found. What does this all achieve?

Without a grand plan, aliens POE into 10 bunkers plus Laser.

With this plan, aliens can ONLY POE into 6 potential players which is now also known to town.

4 of the players are "safe" due to being actually saved or proxy saved because an alien was allocated to bunker someone on a 1KP night. At this stage, we have used 7 bunker saves so far.

This leaves our pool of random bunker shots who I think should save at an average rate something between 1/2 and 1 per night per random bunker with higher weighting to bunker saving on early days to reduce chances of dying with high bunker saves remaining.

What does this result in?

We get much cleaner info on saves, which helps Nutella make more informed day shots.

Assuming about half the unallocated savers bunker into the POE, this means we get a decent shot at finding a save, AND when saved, we should be able to narrow it down to 1 to 3 people. Because there were 6 people in the POE for aliens, nobody died, and only 3 people got bunkered for example. Think how massively more helpful this is than everyone doinf their own thing and landing save where POE was 10 people. The chances of landing a save in the first place is smaller, the chance of stacking bunkers (a waste on a 1KP night), and even if you DO land a save, you now have a larger POE of potential town who got saved.

protocultures wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:18 pmAlso unsure whether it is beneficial/worthwhile to indicate my personal town/alien reads since the only ones that matter are Nutellas takes anyway. I dont hate Nutella's latest reads so think I am happy to coast a little while.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:12 pm I also think this game is sorting very easily and day 1 hasn't started yet which is usually a bad sign

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:39 pmIf I was laser lady I'd shoot you just to save time.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:40 pm No I'm not tinfoiling anyone yet. I might soon.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:07 am Mac isn’t in this game??

What a fucking rip off I want my money back

dunya wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:09 pm Are you voting Epi cos he's super cool or cos your stance is to shoot him? Just wanna clarify.

I meant like, player 1: protects player 2
Player 2: protects player 3
And did forth. For the odd number of night where there's only 1 kill and 1 protect would save nutella it's not thaaaaat bad an idea. clearly, I will protect nutella cos I don't trust all the rest of y'all not to pull one on me

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:32 pm ok, misread the OP - I thought each Bunker could only protect once. Apparently they have 4 shots. Still not enough to waste them on a mass protect of every player in the game.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:32 pm ok, misread the OP - I thought each Bunker could only protect once. Apparently they have 4 shots. Still not enough to waste them on a mass protect of every player in the game.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:33 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:32 pm ok, misread the OP - I thought each Bunker could only protect once. Apparently they have 4 shots. Still not enough to waste them on a mass protect of every player in the game.

I'm sad you're scum this game. =(

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:36 pmI'm really not

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:35 pm Okay so I'm not the only one who thought that mightve been a slip.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:37 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:36 pmI'm really not

Time will reveal all. You cannot escape time!

But also, ok, then tell me who is!

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:37 pm It's not a slip. :P In games with open setups, if I forgot or am confused about some aspect of the game, I usually refer to the OP to check the game mechanics rather than my role PM so I don't have to leave the thread. I've done it both as town and scum before.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:32 pm ok, misread the OP - I thought each Bunker could only protect once. Apparently they have 4 shots. Still not enough to waste them on a mass protect of every player in the game.

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:24 am maybe this is a bit too early but i also townread nanook for their low effort one-liner quips and lowkey trolling / lack of discussing in good faith

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:03 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:05 pm
(yes, I know it doesn't do anything, I just want to make it clear what my stance is from day to day)

Why do you feel the need to say this? Ppl already know that D0 votes work like this.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:07 am

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:03 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:05 pm
(yes, I know it doesn't do anything, I just want to make it clear what my stance is from day to day)

Why do you feel the need to say this? Ppl already know that D0 votes work like this.

I was JUST thinking about that, and why I put Alison at the bottom of my good pile.

It felt like a slightly forced entry to show people she is already hunting. We don't know why she finds epi worthy of a vote or anything else. Didn't like that part tbh.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:37 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:35 pm Okay so I'm not the only one who thought that mightve been a slip.

It's not a slip. :P In games with open setups, if I forgot or am confused about some aspect of the game, I usually refer to the OP to check the game mechanics rather than my role PM so I don't have to leave the thread. I've done it both as town and scum before.

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:05 am im confirmed derp cleared town. i was towny regardless. haters can eat my dab

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:51 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:48 pm OMG coffee tell lock scum tbh

Didn't I even see a coffee tell in my champs game and then proceeded to NOT point it out and then the guy was scum or am I just fantasising?

you're not, it happened.

it would be HILARIOUS if epi just coffee-telled tho. i'm telling you, i would die.

epi x dragomir x rej x alison

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:07 pm I uh

Actually think >rand Epi is mafia

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:44 pm But also, holy shit, if Nut misshoots this can go to shits real fast.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:56 pm Reads:

Town:
Tutu - Towny posts, good reasoning and mulling over of reads. I see nothing wrong.
Proto - Can be town for placing themselves in a position of handing out town cred to people. Making themselves the judge - towny thing.
Dunya - Probably town, and I really want her to be or else I fear it will be very difficult. Seems very proactive and starts getting reads asap. Only played with her once and I was scum that game, but she started giving reads asap there too. Be town.
Nanook - I don't think I've ever seen Nanook as scum, but gut vibe too stronk. I just liked the "Oh no, let's not be embarrassed" and also wanting to come up with a better plan but not having it yet. Just seemed genuine.

Townish:
Carot - I liked her aufhouahdfoajfpo and her reentrance to the thread.
LC - I kind of agree with Tutu's reasoning for town leaning on him. Him assuming scum would target Nut every night. Don't see anything wrong with his posts.
Tony - Maybe ever so slightly, cause I feel like he wanted to take control over strategy in a way that seemed towny. Not just following.

Null:
Epi - I really don't know.
Soneji - No comment.
Alison - I don't know yet. Not great tbh.
Rej - Also not great. Rej was an easy town read for me in a game way back I remember. I get nothing here.
Bimbo - Hi

Scummy:
Drag - Much scum wow. Haven't liked his posts. Feels like he's TMI-ing on Carot, scummy in interaction with Dunya. Also Dunya is never wrong, and if she is it's her fault and not mine.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:56 pm Nut, you have to talk to me if you're going to suspect me. Or else this is all on you.

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:50 pm uh i think i misgendered epi sry

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:03 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:02 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:57 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:44 pm But also, holy shit, if Nut misshoots this can go to shits real fast.

if you're town don't look so scummy ldo

No, for real. This is not good enough and just annoying tbh. You're confirmed town. Cool. But don't be giving me that. If you think I'm scummy please let me know why so I can respond if I feel it will help, at least before you shoot me. If you still think I'm scummy, then cool ig. I'm not used to being suspected when I'm town tbh, so I'm taken aback a little. =p

I've quoted a couple things that I found scummy from you. Your recent posts trend up. Just keep doing what you're doing.

If I were to choose my shot at this very moment it would be more likely Drago or Epi than you.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:56 pm Reads:

Town:
Tutu - Towny posts, good reasoning and mulling over of reads. I see nothing wrong.
Proto - Can be town for placing themselves in a position of handing out town cred to people. Making themselves the judge - towny thing.
Dunya - Probably town, and I really want her to be or else I fear it will be very difficult. Seems very proactive and starts getting reads asap. Only played with her once and I was scum that game, but she started giving reads asap there too. Be town.
Nanook - I don't think I've ever seen Nanook as scum, but gut vibe too stronk. I just liked the "Oh no, let's not be embarrassed" and also wanting to come up with a better plan but not having it yet. Just seemed genuine.

Townish:
Carot - I liked her aufhouahdfoajfpo and her reentrance to the thread.
LC - I kind of agree with Tutu's reasoning for town leaning on him. Him assuming scum would target Nut every night. Don't see anything wrong with his posts.
Tony - Maybe ever so slightly, cause I feel like he wanted to take control over strategy in a way that seemed towny. Not just following.

Null:
Epi - I really don't know.
Soneji - No comment.
Alison - I don't know yet. Not great tbh.
Rej - Also not great. Rej was an easy town read for me in a game way back I remember. I get nothing here.
Bimbo - Hi

Scummy:
Drag - Much scum wow. Haven't liked his posts. Feels like he's TMI-ing on Carot, scummy in interaction with Dunya. Also Dunya is never wrong, and if she is it's her fault and not mine.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:03 pm

protocultures wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:22 amLong Con – Alien. Cant believe they called themselves a bunkerman instead of a bunker person. Consider myself triggered.

But... I AM a man. I identify as a man.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:06 pm I also think that nobody except Nutella should be saved, full stop. Including self saves.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:08 pm

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:04 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:58 pm

Spoiler: show

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:53 am 2 persons pinged me as bad for the moment :

* Epignosis is like only focused on protecting nutella in a stubborn/non-cooperative way, which is not helping town. They're also only reacting to posts that directly involves them throughout the thread, so they did read the rest, just didn't react. (Also poop reads.)
* Long Con's posts are 3/4 defense and 1/4 dubious mechanic talk, not good.

tutuu seems the most town to me and I'm still sorting the others

Epi’s town, I think. I have no read on tutuu.

Why?

Also sorry seems like I failed something with my quote on my last post ^^'

Epi’s town because he’s like . Almost TMIed himself as town. It just feels like a mindset thing. I can’t explain it and I’ve been tricked before but Epi seems to just be town.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:18 pm this "you'll all regret shooting me" stuff from epi is super forced

epi, dys, drago and one more