Re: [NIGHT 4] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2015 10:39 pm
Talkative bunch when I'm not around.
Now nobody wants to speak.
Now nobody wants to speak.
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
Haha I like you tooRadicalFuzz wrote:Where exactly did bcornett go?
Also Mac, if you're offering to step up your game if I state lynching intent then by all means you're my top suspect.
Hi Epi!Epignosis wrote:Talkative bunch when I'm not around.
Now nobody wants to speak.
Feel like dancin?Elohcin wrote:Hi Epi!Epignosis wrote:Talkative bunch when I'm not around.
Now nobody wants to speak.
Sorsha wrote:And I absolutely LOVE proving people wrong. So if I do get lynched today it be kinda worth it to just have my civvie role shoved right in your face.
You had your vote on a civvie the day Long Con was lynched?Matt F wrote:Before anyone else mentions it, yes, I've voted to lynch a civvie four days in a row now.![]()
Sorry town
alright, i'm calling it.Diiny wrote:yeah, this isn't informed but I don't want to get penalised. Golden because he's obviously scum guys
Lol such a scummy thing to scum.bcornett24 wrote:I have had very bad luck with allergies the last two weeks, I logged in to see the results earlier and logged off. To exhausted to focus. I'm about to head to bed.
Mac you better be finding me those bread crumbs you promised or the 10-11 points of why you are a civ.
So many Scum reads to make tomorrow so little time.
At least one of the people defending Sorsha was also anti-LC (hi), and I think it was probably more than just me. espers this post is pretty bad, what is the purpose of this vague attempt at casting doubt upon all of these people for something that isn't even accurate?espers wrote:voting sorsha
don't like some of the later votes on the devin wagon and straw's sorsha case was pretty compelling /piggybacking
no slight against the ppl defending sorsha, but you were wrong about lc, why should we believe you now?
Diiny, you're a demanding townie. You expect things out of people and try to get things from them when at first they don't supply them. This voting methodology is so... timid. Even if you hadn't managed to catch up with the entire game, you have had plenty of time as an active contributor to get some kind of feeling at least on Devin and Sorsha. You failed to place a relevant vote in a very important spot and that I really don't think town Diiny lets that happen.Diiny wrote:yeah, this isn't informed but I don't want to get penalised. Golden because he's obviously scum guys
Why are you deciding your vote for the end of a 48 hour Day 5 right at the beginning of the preceding 24 hour Night 4?Bullzeye wrote:So can anyone else see the possible save attempt? Thinking we'll find baddies among the Sorsha voters for sure, especially if Devin was their endangered teammate. Probably going to vote Devin tomorrow. Espers and Russti also have my eye.
I haven't reviewed his newest content in depth yet, but on the surface I really haven't been bothered. Mac is a very capable anti-town player (one of the best on RYM if you ask me), and he entered this stage of the game generally being trusted by most people. I think he is probably goofing around for the sake of reactions and entertaining himself, something that is not unbelievable in terms of meta. When time permits I'll check more closely into his recent play.Russtifinko wrote:So JJJ, for you, where does Mac's content today weigh in, in comparison to what you discussed in this quote? Has it changed your opinion, and if so to what degree?
JJJ how was your Sweden trip, by the way?
Is there a reason why I shouldn't? Besides, it's not like I've said I'll definitely do it and gone out to get a tattoo of the statement. I can change my mind if I really want to.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Why are you deciding your vote for the end of a 48 hour Day 5 right at the beginning of the preceding 24 hour Night 4?Bullzeye wrote:So can anyone else see the possible save attempt? Thinking we'll find baddies among the Sorsha voters for sure, especially if Devin was their endangered teammate. Probably going to vote Devin tomorrow. Espers and Russti also have my eye.
Mac wasn't alone in this regard. A few other people also viewed LC's first anti-bea post as suspicious (not including me to be fair), and they all generally seemed to have the same perspective about why it looked bad. I don't think it's hard to believe that they were simply correct in that read, as Mac would have been as a townie. He'd have called him out on that vote because he found it suspicious.Epignosis wrote:You asked for a second opinion. So here goes.
To your first spoiler tagged entry: Why did MacDougall choose to gun for that particular vote? There were a lot of shitty votes Day 1, as there always are, and Long Con struck me as genuine (and you have Black Rock here verifying that I usually view LC as bad, which is true). Why call him out on that?
This highlighted portion is where you [mostly] lose me. I agree that it's possible, but the word "possible" doesn't mean that much to me in the game of Mafia. Here's my beef: I don't think we should be acting under the assumption that LC was being honest at all when he proclaimed his case against bea was a ruse or a test. I don't think it was at all -- I think he genuinely wanted to generate bad press against bea and it blew up in his face. So he had to backpedal hard, but in a strategically graceful manner, so he elected to pretend it was a test. Apparently he's done that kind of thing as a townie before, he probably thought he could get away with claiming to have done it again. It could have worked too, because a lot of people believed him.Epignosis wrote:I don't know why it never occurred to me before, but I want to go back to Breaking Bad Mafia on RM. Sorsha was bad with then, weren't your Sorsha? Aw, wait, you're dead because people don't listen to sense.![]()
In that game, I was Gus Fring, and my vote was worth a shit ton. While that sort of thing sounds good, it's very hard to hide. I chose to be blatant about it, breaking ties and what not and rubbing it in people's faces. I lasted quite a while.
Long Con was in that game, and he hunted my role hard. It was an exhausting exercise, and I think it's one he didn't look forward to in particular.
Suppose then, that LC decides to have this fake case on a civilian to "test reactions" and get somebody else on his team to call him out on it. They duke it out in the thread, and the plan is to lynch LC, who, let's face it, would be caught eventually anyway (seriously folks, giving Mafia +vote roles only outs them in the long run- it's bad game design). LC gets lynched, and the one who called him out on his gambit gets credit for it.
With a team of seven, it's the kind of thing I'd go for.
I like I said, I agree that there's a chance. I don't really like to work within a Lloyd Christmas mindset though. I want to know what is most likely, not what is a possibility. Just about any theory any of us could ever cook up is a possibility, but that's meaningless. I don't think this possibility holds very much water.Epignosis wrote:The fact that you, 3J, were blind to this possibility concerns me.
Understandable perspective. For a long while though, it wasn't uncommon on RYM for people to be lynched for the sake of information generation. That method has faded with time, but Mac was present when it was a commonplace thing -- indeed even when I would pursue information-heavy lynches in the absence of a better option.Epignosis wrote:MacDougall has gone from gung-ho against Mafia to wanting to lynch civilians to give us fucking breadcrumbs. Fuck breadcrumbs.
This is a fair point. When I do my interaction analyses, it involves a crap load of CTRL+F, and when I see a name I zone in directly on the relevant material -- especially when I'm trying to get through every single player and am moving quickly. This means that sometimes I am going to miss certain contextual things, and in this case I think I did that. So you're right to question me for it. I perceived this post as a loud effort by Mac to discredit points made by LC, but I was mistaken about which points precisely. That this post was self-defensive in nature does make it less meaningful with regards to how it reflects in his LC interactions.Epignosis wrote:I also want to point out that, in the second spoiler tag, 3J highlights "I don't think Long Con's points were good. Pretty sure you'll agree when you ACTUALLY READ THEM" which directs attention from the rest of the post:
3J took this post, highlighted a side note about Long Con, when the overall conversation here was about seaside. Then 3J talked Mac up, saying, "Mac may have taken a long break, but he returned to Mafia in old form.MacDougall wrote:I don't want him in the game because he's either scum or because he's disruptive to the scum hunt. He's the best lynch candidate for the day. Explain to me how that's not valid?Sorsha wrote:Two players I'm considering voting for so far:
Mac:
I don't like Mac going for seaside for the simple fact that he doesn't want him in the game. Seaside came in day one voicing suspicion of Mac so this just seems like a delayed no u/omgus. Long Con made a couple good points earlier about some things Mac said yesterday late in the lynch also. (If I wasn't on my phone I'd go back and get the quote) Mac was also on HBs rainbow list in yellow so I could see Mac trying to take him out before HB had more of a chance to look closer at him.
Straw:
Based on his posts from the night I believe he might also be trying to set seaside up for the HB kill.
Going to put my vote on Mac for the time being.
His suspicion of me was nothing tbh. I barely even considered it at the time let alone now.
I don't think Long Con's points were good. Pretty sure you'll agree when you ACTUALLY READ THEM.
Also I have no idea what the fuck you mean by the last bit? Setting him up for the kill? He's going to get lynched, why would anyone bother doing that?
Lynching seaside is a no brainer at this point. Most votes, most people interracted with so it leaves the best crumbs. Most people seem to harbour some doubt about him.
What's your read of seaside?"
Old form...over a defensive post? Is he usually defensive?
Mac can talk about Seaside. I don't know.Epignosis wrote:And what happened to lynching seaside for breadcrumbs?
Finally, on this point, tt's worth pointing out that Sorsha, a civilian, suspected Mac.
Mmm...breadcrumbs indeed.
I don't know about LC personally, but I don't think there's any reason to doubt that a mafia player would cast an OMGUS vote on a civilian. I've done it plenty of times, albeit in the form of a thoroughly reasoned "case".Epignosis wrote:Raise your hand if you think LC casts OMGUS votes on civilians.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:LC responded to Mac's aggression with an OMGUS vote. It's possible that this was all a designed cooperative bus, but... I don't think it was.
Now raise your hand if you think LC knew what he was about when he did it.
Show me that you actually care about the ability to change your mind and this will mean something to me.Bullzeye wrote:Is there a reason why I shouldn't?JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Why are you deciding your vote for the end of a 48 hour Day 5 right at the beginning of the preceding 24 hour Night 4?Bullzeye wrote:So can anyone else see the possible save attempt? Thinking we'll find baddies among the Sorsha voters for sure, especially if Devin was their endangered teammate. Probably going to vote Devin tomorrow. Espers and Russti also have my eye.
If you're town: absolutely. It's entirely possible yesterdays wagons were town-town, and to immediately jump to the "he was saved!" mindset is incredibly dangerous.
Bullzeye wrote:Besides, it's not like I've said I'll definitely do it and gone out to get a tattoo of the statement. I can change my mind if I really want to.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Show me that you actually care about the ability to change your mind and this will mean something to me.Bullzeye wrote:Is there a reason why I shouldn't?JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Why are you deciding your vote for the end of a 48 hour Day 5 right at the beginning of the preceding 24 hour Night 4?Bullzeye wrote:So can anyone else see the possible save attempt? Thinking we'll find baddies among the Sorsha voters for sure, especially if Devin was their endangered teammate. Probably going to vote Devin tomorrow. Espers and Russti also have my eye.
If you're town: absolutely. It's entirely possible yesterdays wagons were town-town, and to immediately jump to the "he was saved!" mindset is incredibly dangerous.
Bullzeye wrote:Besides, it's not like I've said I'll definitely do it and gone out to get a tattoo of the statement. I can change my mind if I really want to.
I've already said that I find it particularly suspicious because I also suspect Russti, who broke the tie and got Sorsha lynched.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:If you're town: absolutely. It's entirely possible yesterdays wagons were town-town, and to immediately jump to the "he was saved!" mindset is incredibly dangerous.Bullzeye wrote:Is there a reason why I shouldn't?JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Why are you deciding your vote for the end of a 48 hour Day 5 right at the beginning of the preceding 24 hour Night 4?Bullzeye wrote:So can anyone else see the possible save attempt? Thinking we'll find baddies among the Sorsha voters for sure, especially if Devin was their endangered teammate. Probably going to vote Devin tomorrow. Espers and Russti also have my eye.
I don't even know what you're talking about now. Like you said, there are nearly 3 full days before the lynch deadline. Anything can happen between now and then. I might not even see day five. I've never been the type of person to assume my first instinct is definitely 100% correct. I know I'm not always going to be right. I still have the right to say what I think, when I think it. I gave no indication that I don't care about changing my mind or that I'm not open to other possibilities. I don't understand where you're coming from.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Show me that you actually care about the ability to change your mind and this will mean something to me.Bullzeye wrote:Besides, it's not like I've said I'll definitely do it and gone out to get a tattoo of the statement. I can change my mind if I really want to.
There's a difference between stating a perspective right now and stating an intent to vote right now.Bullzeye wrote:I don't even know what you're talking about now. Like you said, there are nearly 3 full days before the lynch deadline. Anything can happen between now and then. I might not even see day five. I've never been the type of person to assume my first instinct is definitely 100% correct. I know I'm not always going to be right. I still have the right to say what I think, when I think it. I gave no indication that I don't care about changing my mind or that I'm not open to other possibilities. I don't understand where you're coming from.
Please expand.motel room wrote:The order i would lynch them is espers > diiny > jjj. I'm reading jjj as jenuine atm.seaside wrote:What does everyone think of jjj, diiny and espers?
Not much difference in my opinion. I disagree entirely with your perspective here. Even if you're right, I'll hardly be the only person viewing the day from a biased position.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:There's a difference between stating a perspective right now and stating an intent to vote right now.Bullzeye wrote:I don't even know what you're talking about now. Like you said, there are nearly 3 full days before the lynch deadline. Anything can happen between now and then. I might not even see day five. I've never been the type of person to assume my first instinct is definitely 100% correct. I know I'm not always going to be right. I still have the right to say what I think, when I think it. I gave no indication that I don't care about changing my mind or that I'm not open to other possibilities. I don't understand where you're coming from.
I don't think you have to be bad for this behavior. Townies do it often. And I think it's a terrible idea. I don't mean to be condescending, but if you're town then take it as a fair warning: you're setting yourself up to view the entire day through a biased lens.
Do you disagree with me that this would be a rather screwed up thing to do to one's own baddie team? LC strikes me as the sort who invests himself enough in a game that he wouldn't just leave it behind for his own sake. Even when the potential exists to give team mates added credit for the bus, it still leaves the team a man shorter and that's more of a problem than a benefit.Golden wrote:I'm raising my hand.
I'm in complete agreement with epi.
I absolutely, 100% still believe that LC took a dive to plan world reborn. The question is just who benefitted from it.
Why does this sentence exist?Bullzeye wrote:Even if you're right, I'll hardly be the only person viewing the day from a biased position.
What are the reaches, and why do you consider them so?MacDougall wrote:I stopped reading after you made about 4 extremely huge reaches that nobody in their right mind would believe are possible tbh. Can you please hunt scum instead? Cool.
Because it is true. I won't be the only biased player, so telling me specifically that I'm biased and should consider not being so feels fairly pointless.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Why does this sentence exist?Bullzeye wrote:Even if you're right, I'll hardly be the only person viewing the day from a biased position.
But you could be.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Dancing sounds like fun, but there's a mafia game to play (says the guy who's hardly been playing).
I know you won't be the only biased player. I am talking to you though. You're Bullzeye, and this is my conversation with you.Bullzeye wrote:Because it is true. I won't be the only biased player, so telling me specifically that I'm biased and should consider not being so feels fairly pointless.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Why does this sentence exist?Bullzeye wrote:Even if you're right, I'll hardly be the only person viewing the day from a biased position.
I'm not ignoring any new information, but you're right that I have focused a lot on my own workload. I didn't do all those analyses because I was bored, I did them because it allowed me to make substantive reads on nearly every player. I'm quite sure I wasn't right about everything, but I am confident enough in my skillset that I will trust my work until given a reason not to.RadicalFuzz wrote:My home site, Jesus Toast Mafia, is named after a term we coined "Jesus Toast." It's seeing Christ on rye, so to speak, some big conspiracy that ties everything up in a neat little bow when there's really nothing there.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Can a man get a reason?RadicalFuzz wrote:Mac, if you're confident all three are bad vote J3 with me.
By the way J3 I'm voting for you.
That's what I'm seeing with you. You're holding to your Long Con analyses, which are good sources of information, but seem to be almost ignoring new, relevant information. You're quick to call people town, which on its own isn't a bad thing, but it's off-putting for some reason I can't put my finger on. You play the cooperative townie, not confrontational but prodding with just enough frequency to get responses.
I know there's no fair defense to what mostly amounts to a gut feeling, and I apologize for that.
I dunno like the first couple of paragraphs of the post he made or something.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:What are the reaches, and why do you consider them so?MacDougall wrote:I stopped reading after you made about 4 extremely huge reaches that nobody in their right mind would believe are possible tbh. Can you please hunt scum instead? Cool.
I really don't get into the business of building theories of entire teams, I find baddies individually and work off of the information that this produces. I think it's generally a bad idea to become entrenched in theories of full teams because they demand such an acute grasp of the baddie strategy and of how the team mates are playing off of each other that it's frankly beyond the skills of even the best townies on the Internet. It's so ambitious that it's ill-advised.DrWilgy wrote:JJJ, Golden (if you are no longer insane), and Epi, if Mac were to flip bad who would his team be? If bcornett were to flip bad who would his team be?
I would like for y'all to spoiler what your thoughts are and not look at each others responses until all have posted, but there's no way I can confirm that. I guess I'm trusting y'all on that.
You're sweet and I loved the dance.Epignosis wrote:Feel like dancin?Elohcin wrote:Hi Epi!Epignosis wrote:Talkative bunch when I'm not around.
Now nobody wants to speak.
I found posting on Day 4 less than enjoyable.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:But you could be.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Dancing sounds like fun, but there's a mafia game to play (says the guy who's hardly been playing).
ISO's are pretty ambitious too, but I know you encourage them.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I really don't get into the business of building theories of entire teams, I find baddies individually and work off of the information that this produces. I think it's generally a bad idea to become entrenched in theories of full teams because they demand such an acute grasp of the baddie strategy and of how the team mates are playing off of each other that it's frankly beyond the skills of even the best townies on the Internet. It's so ambitious that it's ill-advised.DrWilgy wrote:JJJ, Golden (if you are no longer insane), and Epi, if Mac were to flip bad who would his team be? If bcornett were to flip bad who would his team be?
I would like for y'all to spoiler what your thoughts are and not look at each others responses until all have posted, but there's no way I can confirm that. I guess I'm trusting y'all on that.
Sometimes there is strong enough evidence of an interaction pre-flip that I'll thoroughly explore it, but that's a rarity. I can try to answer this for you if you want me to, but I'm telling you now that the answers will likely be arbitrary. I don't play Mafia this way. I would have to specifically explore interactions involving Mac and bcornett to give you anything more substantive, and that's more of a workload than I'm inclined to take on for players who are still alive.
Analyzing a single player is not as ambitious as building a theory about the entire mafia team, or even close. Not even analyzing every player is that ambitious, because those analyses are all independent of one another. That's the only way to keep them decently objective.Metalmarsh89 wrote:ISO's are pretty ambitious too, but I know you encourage them.
It's very different. If I were to make a rainbow list right now with 6 players in the red zone, I would not be asserting that those 6 players comprise the baddie team. I'd be saying that they are the 6 most suspicious players in the game to me independent of one another.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Also, rainbow lists are going to have 6 players at the bottom who are the scummiest reads. It's not a whole lot different than naming six players you think are on a team together.
It's definitely something I'd expect from MP. He's a very vengeful host. Break or bend his rules and he will come down on you like a ton of bricks. He also isn't afraid to mass-modkill inactive players.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Is it typical of MP or other Syndicate hosts to force players to behave like MM behaved on Day 4 if they miss votes or something like that?
I'd say it's more typical of MP.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Is it typical of MP or other Syndicate hosts to force players to behave like MM behaved on Day 4 if they miss votes or something like that?
Sometimes a fresh mindset is a good thing. You don't necessarily have to catch up with this entire thread. You can just read it as it comes to you starting now and share your perspectives starting now. If by chance you make an assertion that is contrary to thread evidence, I am sure someone will say so and you can go from there.fingersplints wrote:Sorry for missing the vote. I had no idea who to vote for, no one even tried to summarise, and it's honestly unlikely I will ever catch up since there are 76 pages. I regret agreeing to replace into this game before checking the thread. I won't make that mistake ever again
I pity you for missing the vote.fingersplints wrote:Sorry for missing the vote. I had no idea who to vote for, no one even tried to summarise, and it's honestly unlikely I will ever catch up since there are 76 pages. I regret agreeing to replace into this game before checking the thread. I won't make that mistake ever again