Re: [NIGHT 4] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2015 10:00 am
Don't worry about it if it will alter a healthy mindset.
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
"not confrontational" was admittedly a poor choice of words. I'm used to "confrontational" being equivalent to "tunneling on someone until they crack." Your tone is also less aggressive, almost sing-songy, than I usually equate with aggression, if that makes sense.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm not ignoring any new information, but you're right that I have focused a lot on my own workload. I didn't do all those analyses because I was bored, I did them because it allowed me to make substantive reads on nearly every player. I'm quite sure I wasn't right about everything, but I am confident enough in my skillset that I will trust my work until given a reason not to.RadicalFuzz wrote:My home site, Jesus Toast Mafia, is named after a term we coined "Jesus Toast." It's seeing Christ on rye, so to speak, some big conspiracy that ties everything up in a neat little bow when there's really nothing there.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Can a man get a reason?RadicalFuzz wrote:Mac, if you're confident all three are bad vote J3 with me.
By the way J3 I'm voting for you.
That's what I'm seeing with you. You're holding to your Long Con analyses, which are good sources of information, but seem to be almost ignoring new, relevant information. You're quick to call people town, which on its own isn't a bad thing, but it's off-putting for some reason I can't put my finger on. You play the cooperative townie, not confrontational but prodding with just enough frequency to get responses.
I know there's no fair defense to what mostly amounts to a gut feeling, and I apologize for that.
I think you need to reassess me though if you think I've been "not confrontational". I might not sound like a hyper-aggressive player because of the language I employ, but I have directly confronted so many people in this game on just about everything. I am highly confrontational.
Which do you think we will benefit more from?JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Analyzing a single player is not as ambitious as building a theory about the entire mafia team, or even close. Not even analyzing every player is that ambitious, because those analyses are all independent of one another. That's the only way to keep them decently objective.Metalmarsh89 wrote:ISO's are pretty ambitious too, but I know you encourage them.
It's very different. If I were to make a rainbow list right now with 6 players in the red zone, I would not be asserting that those 6 players comprise the baddie team. I'd be saying that they are the 6 most suspicious players in the game to me independent of one another.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Also, rainbow lists are going to have 6 players at the bottom who are the scummiest reads. It's not a whole lot different than naming six players you think are on a team together.
This is why you'll see no multi-baddie theories in my massive post history apart from those which can be derived from the confirmed baddie: Long Con.
He will be modkilled in the Night 4 post if he does not post once before that time.Ricochet wrote:I'd like to ask the Hosts what RDW's status is and what's in store for him, it's a week since he last posted, so way beyond the 72-hour grace period.
I don't have many thoughts right now. Roxy is still the person i trust the most. I don't expect you all the believe my reads off her, but I know Roxy, and she is a civ. I feel alright about you, and I think I feel ok about Elo, but I am not that really confident about that one. It's mostly a gut read off how I think a baddie vs civvie Elo would act in a game of this size.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Sometimes a fresh mindset is a good thing. You don't necessarily have to catch up with this entire thread. You can just read it as it comes to you starting now and share your perspectives starting now. If by chance you make an assertion that is contrary to thread evidence, I am sure someone will say so and you can go from there.fingersplints wrote:Sorry for missing the vote. I had no idea who to vote for, no one even tried to summarise, and it's honestly unlikely I will ever catch up since there are 76 pages. I regret agreeing to replace into this game before checking the thread. I won't make that mistake ever again
Should I be worried?Metalmarsh89 wrote:I pity you for missing the vote.fingersplints wrote:Sorry for missing the vote. I had no idea who to vote for, no one even tried to summarise, and it's honestly unlikely I will ever catch up since there are 76 pages. I regret agreeing to replace into this game before checking the thread. I won't make that mistake ever again
Phone mafia!MacDougall wrote:Lol such a scummy thing to scum.bcornett24 wrote:I have had very bad luck with allergies the last two weeks, I logged in to see the results earlier and logged off. To exhausted to focus. I'm about to head to bed.
Mac you better be finding me those bread crumbs you promised or the 10-11 points of why you are a civ.
So many Scum reads to make tomorrow so little time.
Also I won't be doing either of those things on account of you asking like a douche.
With a 1 vote difference it certainly looks that way, doesn't it? That's too easy.fingersplints wrote:I don't have many thoughts right now. Roxy is still the person i trust the most. I don't expect you all the believe my reads off her, but I know Roxy, and she is a civ. I feel alright about you, and I think I feel ok about Elo, but I am not that really confident about that one. It's mostly a gut read off how I think a baddie vs civvie Elo would act in a game of this size.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Sometimes a fresh mindset is a good thing. You don't necessarily have to catch up with this entire thread. You can just read it as it comes to you starting now and share your perspectives starting now. If by chance you make an assertion that is contrary to thread evidence, I am sure someone will say so and you can go from there.fingersplints wrote:Sorry for missing the vote. I had no idea who to vote for, no one even tried to summarise, and it's honestly unlikely I will ever catch up since there are 76 pages. I regret agreeing to replace into this game before checking the thread. I won't make that mistake ever again
I think that the votes look like there could have been a save for Devin. (Particularly the last three guys at the end there - but I haven't read them this is off vote timing).
Sooooo you planning on voting for me again? Or are you starting to see what I was seeing in Diiny?JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Diiny, you're a demanding townie. You expect things out of people and try to get things from them when at first they don't supply them. This voting methodology is so... timid. Even if you hadn't managed to catch up with the entire game, you have had plenty of time as an active contributor to get some kind of feeling at least on Devin and Sorsha. You failed to place a relevant vote in a very important spot and that I really don't think town Diiny lets that happen.Diiny wrote:yeah, this isn't informed but I don't want to get penalised. Golden because he's obviously scum guys
Sometimes the easy answer is right one.Devin the Omniscient wrote:With a 1 vote difference it certainly looks that way, doesn't it? That's too easy.fingersplints wrote:I don't have many thoughts right now. Roxy is still the person i trust the most. I don't expect you all the believe my reads off her, but I know Roxy, and she is a civ. I feel alright about you, and I think I feel ok about Elo, but I am not that really confident about that one. It's mostly a gut read off how I think a baddie vs civvie Elo would act in a game of this size.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Sometimes a fresh mindset is a good thing. You don't necessarily have to catch up with this entire thread. You can just read it as it comes to you starting now and share your perspectives starting now. If by chance you make an assertion that is contrary to thread evidence, I am sure someone will say so and you can go from there.fingersplints wrote:Sorry for missing the vote. I had no idea who to vote for, no one even tried to summarise, and it's honestly unlikely I will ever catch up since there are 76 pages. I regret agreeing to replace into this game before checking the thread. I won't make that mistake ever again
I think that the votes look like there could have been a save for Devin. (Particularly the last three guys at the end there - but I haven't read them this is off vote timing).
Tbh you've waited long enough. Especially the guy who's been AWOL the last week needs to die a gruesome death.MovingPictures07 wrote:Don't forget that PMs are due within 23 hours of the Day 4 host post.
We are keeping the PM submission time 23 hours to give us that 1 hour buffer so that the EoD time does not shift significantly going forward.
That means you must have your PM sent to me and Sloonei by today, October 14th at 7:06PM Eastern.
Isn't your job as a doctor to keep others alive? Or are you the type that fudges surgeries?DrWilgy wrote:Shuck it. I'm voting bcornett from here on out until he's dead.
Unless it's abso abso absolutely needed that I vote elsewhere.
I get that. I'm just frustrated. Not trying to attack you directly.fingersplints wrote:Sometimes the easy answer is right one.Devin the Omniscient wrote:With a 1 vote difference it certainly looks that way, doesn't it? That's too easy.fingersplints wrote:I don't have many thoughts right now. Roxy is still the person i trust the most. I don't expect you all the believe my reads off her, but I know Roxy, and she is a civ. I feel alright about you, and I think I feel ok about Elo, but I am not that really confident about that one. It's mostly a gut read off how I think a baddie vs civvie Elo would act in a game of this size.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Sometimes a fresh mindset is a good thing. You don't necessarily have to catch up with this entire thread. You can just read it as it comes to you starting now and share your perspectives starting now. If by chance you make an assertion that is contrary to thread evidence, I am sure someone will say so and you can go from there.fingersplints wrote:Sorry for missing the vote. I had no idea who to vote for, no one even tried to summarise, and it's honestly unlikely I will ever catch up since there are 76 pages. I regret agreeing to replace into this game before checking the thread. I won't make that mistake ever again
I think that the votes look like there could have been a save for Devin. (Particularly the last three guys at the end there - but I haven't read them this is off vote timing).
DrWilgy is most definitely not a doctor.DrWilgy wrote:Good afternoon everyone. My name is DrWilgy, and I am most definitely not a doctor.
I'm sorry for not being active the past days. My midterms will be half complete tomorrow afternoon, and I plan to catch up after that.
You are most definitely incorrect.RadicalFuzz wrote:He frequently says "I am most definitely not a doctor" and "I am most definitely a doctor" interchangeably.
I certainly don't mean to discourage DrWilgy from playing out what he has in mind. I am down for any new strategy and encourage everyone to do their work in a way that's comfortable for them.Metalmarsh89 wrote:JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Metalmarsh89 wrote:I know if you asked for GTH reads, you would expect other players to go along with it. However, DrWilgy proposed another strategy that asked for input from other players. You said that it is an ambitious and difficult process, but not necessarily a strategy that doesn't work.
- 1) Every player executes the same strategy to hunt for baddies.
2) Every player uses their own preferred method to hunt for baddies.
I think it is a viable strategy, especially if it is one that some player is used to abiding by. It's not one I'm used to using, but I don't think we should discount it as a result.
Did I not mention Russ like 3 times? Also I thought it had been tied at 9-9 with Russ breaking the tie, but I was tired and misremembering. The reason I think the lynch looks shifty is that every time Devin got near Sorsha's vote count, Sorsha got a bunch more votes to keep her ahead. Obviously not all of these could have come from baddies, but it looks odd to me. Specifically Sorsha's final three votes which all came in one string to keep her ahead. I've said that already as well, I'm pretty sure.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Here's a view of Day 4's lynch with the two main players involved at the forefront.
My question to any player pointing the Day 4 lynch out as a save: Why could it be a save?Spoiler: show
Sorsha led the lynch 4-0, 6-2, and 10-7. It was tied at one point at 7-7, but at no point did Devin lead the lynch (unless someone had switched their vote from one to the other, which I have not looked into yet). If this was a save attempt, MacDougall, espers, and Russtinfinko look the worst for their votes.
Looking back Bullzeye is the only one who pointed out "save attempt". But he mentioned no names to be doing the saving.
Also, I do not forgive him for voting for me on Day 3.
I just looked up Russti's first post, I'm not seeing what you mean here. Contact from the host = baddie indicator?Metalmarsh89 wrote:Russtifinko is still high on my suspect list (which is a pretty dismal list tbh). I believe his very first comment of the game was something that stemmed from a BTSC conversation.
This is WIFOM for everyone else, but I can say with 100% certainty that there was no save attempt. No point for one. As I typed that out I remembered that Epi's vote on me was a save attempt for Sorsha. So let me clarify. There was no save attempt for my life. No point.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Here's a view of Day 4's lynch with the two main players involved at the forefront.
My question to any player pointing the Day 4 lynch out as a save: Why could it be a save?Spoiler: show
Sorsha led the lynch 4-0, 6-2, and 10-7. It was tied at one point at 7-7, but at no point did Devin lead the lynch (unless someone had switched their vote from one to the other, which I have not looked into yet). If this was a save attempt, MacDougall, espers, and Russtinfinko look the worst for their votes.
Looking back Bullzeye is the only one who pointed out "save attempt". But he mentioned no names to be doing the saving.
Also, I do not forgive him for voting for me on Day 3.
Russtifinko said this.Bullzeye wrote:I just looked up Russti's first post, I'm not seeing what you mean here. Contact from the host = baddie indicator?Metalmarsh89 wrote:Russtifinko is still high on my suspect list (which is a pretty dismal list tbh). I believe his very first comment of the game was something that stemmed from a BTSC conversation.
I don't see that discussion happening via PM. I believe it is something that stemmed from a chatroom discussion.Russtifinko wrote:Posting because the host tells me I will be a non-participant if I don't.
I will read up throughout today and try to say something intelligent.
I forgot to mention, Roxy sang happy birthday to me. It was one of the greatest things ever.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Roxy sings happy birthday. I'd like to hear that.bea wrote:omg!!! jjj!!! more talking please!!!!!!!!!JaggedJimmyJay wrote:OT /OTRoxy wrote:Have I said![]()
Rox - yours was great, but nothing in comparision to you singing happy birthday to me. I listen to that shit like once a day.
Diiny is obviously my main suss now. Espers is my immediate second for reasons already stated by others. Bullzeye, Matt F, RDW, and Floyd are my other lesser pings. Bullzeye is pure metta. It feels like a repeat of his baddie style in recruitment (Tones and vibes). Matt F (More tones and vibes, man). I'll try to be more specific during the day phase.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Hey Devin, who else do you suspect beyond Diiny?
I expect rdw to contribute more. My experience with him is he posts aloe.Devin the Omniscient wrote:Diiny is obviously my main suss now. Espers is my immediate second for reasons already stated by others. Bullzeye, Matt F, RDW, and Floyd are my other lesser pings. Bullzeye is pure metta. It feels like a repeat of his baddie style in recruitment (Tones and vibes). Matt F (More tones and vibes, man). I'll try to be more specific during the day phase.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Hey Devin, who else do you suspect beyond Diiny?
Trying to get off work an hour early so I can start moving my larger furniture items into my new house. I have very limited time with the trailer that I'm borrowing.
Srs questions for you, JJJ: Do you think baddie rdw would be participating more? Seems unlikely that a scum would risk being mod-killed by the sock god.
What is your current view on Floyd? Do you think the "I don't know how to play" (act) is pure bologna to disguise the fact that he's on the baddie team? I was particularly pinged by his recent vote on Elo.
This was directed at Bullzeye, but any response from a Devin suspector is welcome.Metalmarsh89 wrote:I haven't gotten the chance to look at Devin. Is there any case or points you can point me to that would explain his 9 votes from Day 4?
The other part of the lynch being a possible "save" hinges on Devin being bad. I still have not read everything that has happened in this thread, and I don't know if I will, so some assistance would be welcome.
Because almost all of your content up to that point was fluff. Not until after my vote, when jay started questioning you did you provide actual content. I have not yet taken a look at that, part of the to do list.Devin the Omniscient wrote:You're the first vote on my bandwagon, bcornett. Why did you think I was bad before?
The only problem I see with this scenario is that if LC ever said anything like that last line I would have to divorce him right away.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
So here's my point: if I don't believe LC's "gambit" ever really even existed, then I am not going to attribute theories about his scum intentions to that gambit. That means I am not going to be more suspicious of Mac than I otherwise be because of the possibility that this was a cooperative plan from the start. I don't think this conversation happened in BTSC:
LC: Okay guys, I really need to focus on my other game. I know we just got started here and you're relying on me to contribute, but I gotta bail.
Mac or friends: Well... alright? That kind of sucks. Uh, I guess we better bus you then and make it look nice.
LC: Definitely. So here's the plan. I am going to go after bea for her defensive posts. But when I do: it's gonna be a bad look. I want one or more of you folks to come after me for it right away.
Mac: I'm on it!
LC: Great. But here's where it gets interesting: after you go after me, I'm going to say in the thread that the original case was just a test for reactions and try to gain back the credibility that you take away. I'm known for this kind of thing, it'll look fine.
Mac: Alright sweet. Tell you what, why don't we also argue in the thread about your Flowers role and how it might affect the game? So much WIFOM!!!
LC: Aw yeah, sick. Bro fist, bro.
Voted Devin for CEO.bcornett24 wrote:I know nothing of the syndicate players , so I'm going to vote for Devin the omniscient because his name sounds like somebody who is of authority and rundontwalk because it would be chaotic.
Now this:bcornett24 wrote:He actually hasn't mentioned much of anything.Matt F wrote:I read him last night, and if I'm correct, he has not mentioned them, he has not spoken with them, NOTHING.bcornett24 wrote:Has he given opinions on either player at any point of time within the entire thread?Matt F wrote:What he said about Sorsha.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Please finish your comment on Diiny.bcornett24 wrote:Bullzeye
Diiny - something is off went from a
Sorsha - seems like scum but it also feels like she is being setup (this is a gut feeling)
I'm also curious how your read of Sorsha can be explained. Why does she seem like scum, and conversely why does it feel like a setup? That's an extremely important distinction and I think you need to pick a side immediately.
So nobody else thinks it's odd about Devin not mentioning or speaking with EITHER of his CEO picks?
@ Roxy's vote
I saw this coming from a mile a way.Devin the Omniscient wrote:Yours is possibly the first vote on me to every make me a little upset. How could I have possibly seen your vote coming? I don't know you and I don't know why you're voting for me. Explain now, please.rundontwalk wrote:Devin the Omniscient
you should have seen this coming
Devin the Omniscient
I have an actual reason though for voting for you. Admittedly, my content has been relatively useless up to this point, as I have just caught up reading all this stuff, you on the other hand have 50+ posts and almost all of it is nothing. This I find to be scummy as f...
So this guy votes someone, getting the train rolling, without even reading his responses? Even after helping lead a lynch against birdwithteeth?bcornett24 wrote:Because almost all of your content up to that point was fluff. Not until after my vote, when jay started questioning you did you provide actual content. I have not yet taken a look at that, part of the to do list.Devin the Omniscient wrote:You're the first vote on my bandwagon, bcornett. Why did you think I was bad before?
Well Devin wasn't my strongest suspect. While I did suspect him, the main reason I voted for him was because once she got past the defeatism I felt Sorsha came off very genuine in her defences and had begun to feel quite good about her overall, so didn't think she should be lynched. I felt a Devin lynch was more worthwhile, and more feasible than lynching anyone else I'd thought of (i.e. Russ, I think my only supporter in that case was poor FZ).Metalmarsh89 wrote:This was directed at Bullzeye, but any response from a Devin suspector is welcome.Metalmarsh89 wrote:I haven't gotten the chance to look at Devin. Is there any case or points you can point me to that would explain his 9 votes from Day 4?
The other part of the lynch being a possible "save" hinges on Devin being bad. I still have not read everything that has happened in this thread, and I don't know if I will, so some assistance would be welcome.
I have fairly bad vibes about BCornett myself tbh, but I feel like my reasoning will be immediately 'discredited' if I share it. It's a card I'm keeping close to my chest until I have more solid reasons to support it, but I certainly wouldn't be opposed to voting for him.Epignosis wrote: So this guy votes someone, getting the train rolling, without even reading his responses? Even after helping lead a lynch against birdwithteeth?![]()
It needs to be remembered that bcornett voted LC to save himself- he was under pressure from the thread then, but it seems like that pressure dissipated when Long Con was exposed. What I'm saying is that Day 2 could have been Mafia either way, and that shouldn't be forgotten.
bcornett24 wrote:Browsing over posts right now, I have a bit to do after I complete my second job today.
Mafia to do list:If I missed anything or somebody has some questions please let me know.
- In-depth analysis of devin the omniscient
- In-depth analysis of Mac
- Bullzeye post review
- Elo post review
- Espers post review
*fans Wilgy* Does anyone else need my services?DrWilgy wrote:
bcornett24 wrote:Browsing over posts right now, I have a bit to do after I complete my second job today.
Mafia to do list:If I missed anything or somebody has some questions please let me know.
- In-depth analysis of devin the omniscient
- In-depth analysis of Mac
- Bullzeye post review
- Elo post review
- Espers post review
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!
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I just lost my shit. I actually screamed when I read this.
Someone cool me down! Im seeing red!!
The "interchangeable reverse statements" only include those fluff "I am most definitely (not) a doctor" so I don't care about them either way. I don't care what his fun fluff looks like, it's fun fluff and irrelevant.Metalmarsh89 wrote:You are most definitely incorrect.RadicalFuzz wrote:He frequently says "I am most definitely not a doctor" and "I am most definitely a doctor" interchangeably.
You are most definitely correct.
What do you think about DrWilgy making interchangeable reverse statements?
Well, that's an awfully strange thing for a civvie to say during the Night Phase about someone he thinks is bad...Bullzeye wrote:I have fairly bad vibes about BCornett myself tbh, but I feel like my reasoning will be immediately 'discredited' if I share it. It's a card I'm keeping close to my chest until I have more solid reasons to support it, but I certainly wouldn't be opposed to voting for him.