Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:21 am
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
Marmot, are you a member of the mafia? You have to tell me if you are. It's the law.
Pfft badger someone else about scum hunting. I have done my fair share.dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:58 amAre you voting nutella now? It's hour 1 of a 48 hour day. Get scum huting MacD. nutella is 1 of 5.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:55 amLooks like a backdown, smells like a backdown, quacks like a backdowndunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:53 amI'm not backing down for shit. nutella is talking, keep her talking. Get me Quin talking.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:52 amI am quite taken aback by your back down on nutella that quickly for that reason.
Wow there are fancy vote tags.Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:52 am @MacDougall , why are you not using the fancy vote tags?
Yeah pretty much I told him something in the lines of "you need to go there give someone a role" and forgot to tell him there were turns involved.nutella wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:45 pmMaybe? I think I believed at the time that he was genuinely confused/misled about how the draft works -- particularly because I recall DDL admitting that when he contacted him to come play the game he may have misled him into thinking it was his turn to draft.dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:41 pmWhat about Dr. White himself trying to recruit Iron_Dwarf before it was even his turn to recruit. Does that fall under "acting ignorant" category?nutella wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:06 pmhttp://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 34#p407534colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:04 pmMissed that (I did say quick after all). What was the reasoning?nutella wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:57 pmWhat about his assertion that he "firmly" believed there was scum in sprityo/kites/LC?colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:48 pm A quick ISO shows a weird suppression of any d1 reads - he gets on Mac for early reads not based on much, then JJJ for an early strong townread. It doesn't get my dander up as much as JJJ's, but I don't like it either. I'd put him in Orange territory (reminds me I should do a rainbow soon)
For some reason he grouped together sprityo's claim that one vote could kill him with LC's and Kites' pattern of acting ignorant.![]()
dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:46 amLol. I targeted Tony too. He IDs from Goodguyia.gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:38 am **** ****** ******* Ring
This was TonyStark’s PM last night. Which lines up perfectly with what happened. If he was scum he probably would have had some other power, but then again it may be a passive one.
TonyStarkPrime, please explain why you claimed to be from Badguyia.
The thought process was "i don't want to lynch nutella or Epi and of the people I suspect only rabbit has a vote so I'd rather have a real train than yet another person with one vote on them"Kites wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:37 am”i don’t like this, i don’t like that, i wanna vote someone who’s not going to come back here and question my vote” not much thought process behind any of it, gotta say that the quin bandwagon was convenient thodunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:17 amThe point was he wasn't feeling a nutella lynch. He didn't want to support it.Kites wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:16 amdunno, nutella lynch was going already p strong before he started switching and at that point i was sure that an inactive wasn’t going be lynched that day so they feel like throwaway votesdunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:41 amI called him out on that. He said he was moving his vote between inactives in case he wasn't here during the end of day so that if they were lynched, he wouldn't feel bad, or less bad, since they were inactives. Or something like that. Does that make you feel better or worse about him?
the guy is suspicious imobut i’ll wait and see what’s gonna happen in the next 48 hours
I hate this. Tunnelling would mean nutella is my only suspect ala sloonei vs cbob in Mountains. That's not what I'm doing here. So I will not calm down. :meanie: How have I tunneled, Jay? if I built a case and kept developing that case with new evidence against her? Heck, I even toyed with the thought that a rabbit8 kill could make her look better.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:08 am nutella, I've a new concern developing about you. I believe you have been subject to tunneling. Both Mac and dunya have done this (both of you calm down, I don't think you look worse for it, but I do think you've tunneled -- so have I in other instances). I believe you have been subject to some weak accusations. I believe the level of fury you have faced has not suited the fury your posts warrant.
Did you explain why you suspected rabbit8? I missed it, sorry. Or just forgot. Why did you?
[mention]dunya[/mention] You even respondedcolonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:43 pmSanctions? Could have been a pause that extended unintentionally. Honestly his "no" was worse than the extended absence in my eyes. What possible motivation is there for a civ to not give somebody a role?dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:41 pmI didn't like it either, he delayed the thread. Do you think it was a scum rabbit8, imposing sanctions on his teammates though?colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:39 pmDidn't like rabbits draft behaviour. Nothing about the other two stood out to me.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... f=7&t=1293dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:52 pmsprityo, you have assembled a heck of a mafia team there. Do you feel your list was a real representation of don sprityo's choices or are they leaning more towards a "Fantasy Mafia" draft? Just a very short, honest, to the point answer would do. Real / Fantasy. Can be one word answer.sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:48 pmWhom did I say?Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:36 pmWhat are your reads on the four players you told Epignosis you'd recruit to the mafia team as the Don?sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:17 pmYou’re causing inflation upon the cool points marketJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:03 pm Colin may have earned the 20 cool points, but I am willing to distribute 15 bonus cool points to those who follow in his footsteps (some have already). I will keep a continuing count of cool points earned.
I offer in return some Hot Points to people who can give me an engaging conversation. On topic about the game of course
JJJ Dunya Mac cbob?
I’m pretty sure I covered them in my catchup post.
They’re all still fairly town but I will only say I have unwavering trust towards dunya as a town. JJJ gives me paranoia and Mac is someone who I can see as both, but I like what Mac actually says as opposed to Jay who more so is in a lot of these headbutt battles.
And cbob hadn’t procced anything on my radar and could warrant an ISO if so desired
(someone needs to start a Fantasy Mafia btw. Fantasy Football is good, Fantasy Mafia, betting on our own players, would be epic)
This guy gets it.Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:04 pm I think Epi's statistics just sorta.... solidified things we already knew. We already knew that Dunya and jay would be on a lot of lists because they're prolific players in both of the communities this game is built out of. That doesn't mean we should ignore our actual reads on those players, the don might have kept in mind that Jay or Dunya being well known and popular would make them quick targets for attention (and powers) and avoided them. Likewise, a player who no one picked hypothetically isn't gauranteed to not have been picked, since the don might have taken that exact thing into account.
It's a guide book, not an instruction pamphlet. The statistics can inform our choices but they should never determine them.
Were I single and without children or a job, I could certainly accomplish that. I am married, gainfully employed, and a father of three.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:22 am Nobody in this game is capable of that. Not even Epignosis himself. Feel free to try to prove me wrong at some point, anyone.
What does dunya do for a living? Is she available to post at all hours of the day? Are you?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:55 pm Fun facts:
To my knowledge, the highest post count ever achieved in a Syndicate game by a mafia-aligned player was MacDougall's 940+ (discounting post-game content) in the 2015 GOC. He survived all 11.5 cycles of that game, averaging about 80 posts per cycle. Keep in mind also that this game had two mafia teams, meaning Mac was able to genuinely hunt.
The civilian record belongs to Richochet at about 1,470 in the same game. There's also my 1,450 in Talking Heads (14.5 cycles).
If dunya's present pace were to be cut in half and sustained as such from this point forward through 11.5 cycles, she would amass nearly 3,300 posts. She would significantly more than triple the record for mafia-aligned posts and double the record for civilian-aligned posts.
Simple question: within which alignment is that easier to accomplish? If you tell me there is no difference, I will tell you that you fundamentally don't understand Mafia.
This is a terribly spurious claim. It implies that any suspicion on a civilian is "tinfoil." And that's not the case.dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:45 amI appreciate your tinfoil on me, but it is tinfoil because I am town, and you gotta get over your obsession with me.Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm 3. dunya and JJJ are at the top of the list. dunya has a whopping 10.5 mentions- the only double-digit pick. JJJ is second with 7 mentions. Rather than discuss the obvious implication here, I want to point out a different observation: Nobody voted for either of them except Wilgy. Over 58% of the respondents said they would recruit dunya...and none of them voted for her. Not one. And Wilgy didn't respond. Likewise, JJJ was in 39% of the lineups, but nobody at all voted for him. Why is that? Over half the field said they would recruit dunya. Over a third said they would recruit JJJ. That doesn't mean they were recruited, but the numbers implicate them at face value. That should not be ignored, nor should the two highest drafted people get to dismiss accusations against them as "tinfoil" just because they post a lot. I want this to be a point of discussion moving forward to a healthy extent: If you said you would draft dunya or JJJ, why don't you suspect either of them?
You misunderstand.dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:45 am It's obvious you're a little jealous someone who isn't you is taking over the civ game and you really want me to be scum. I can appreciate that. I'd be jealous if someone tried to lead this game away from me too.I got mislynched in your MK game after having accumulated about 350 posts in one phase. 1 phase. An insane night phase where I had like 25 posts of raps and 1 day phase where the rest of my posts were made, and where I got mislynched. You remember that? It kinda was your game which I replaced into. I was town. It was steered by scum, endorsed by most of the scum team, and pushed by a vocal MacDougall who came back from the dead to haunt me and unprevented (is that a word? it's giving me a red mark under it) by Independent JJJ. You're acting as obnoxious as Quin and MacDougall did there. If you consider Day 0 and now we're in night 1, is it that unprecedented that I would have accumulated this many posts? You're going to argue that post count has nothing to do with it (though it is what you brought forward to accuse me of the previous evening before you posted these results). But I am incapable of posting this much as scum. That's a fact. Another fact is: I'm a beast town machine. I'm not as effective as scum -- this is something RYMers know. I have PDF copies of my scum games on RYM and if the mod allows it, I will send them to anyone interested in reading. In fact, if JOH doesn't allow me to send them, I'm publishing them in a thread in the Lounge anyway and so I've put myself out there and people can stop with this "but what does scum dunya look like" poop.
I knew you would do something like this with me with your exercise, almost immediately after I answered it. The second fact is: no one from the Syndicate has seen scum dunya and EVERYONE has been curious about it (heck, even I am) -- a Syndicate Don will less likely choose me because of how much attention I get and how much I post. A scum team comprised of 2 inactives and 3 moderately posting players wouldn't even be farfetched in a draft like this where it isn't random and someone chooses their team. Why would any don actually want me and Jay on their team?
This exercise has only given credit to people most users don't know and added extra scrutiny to me and Jay because everyone knows us from BOTH websites (RYMers and Syndicators), and myself especially because I handpicked and invited all the new RYMers so I am obviously going to be their choice. If I wasn't, I'd almost be offended. Your numbers mean nothing to me, sorry. Not to discredit your efforts, but the fact I'm Town and the fact you are calling people who weren't specifically drafted into any scum teams in these hypotheticals immediately Town, makes me lose any serious consideration I have in you theories. JJJ and dunya are known by everyone except Dr. White as TOWN leaders. Which Don would actually risk having either of us on a scum team? These dream teams are developed without thought. The more I talk about this and discredit it, the more I am not concerned, and if people actually want to mislynch me for the second time based on something as weak as that crap, then go right ahead and I won't give two poops if you lose the game.![]()
Why does that bother you? Was I trying to mislead civilians with my picks? What was I doing?
What is the point of saying something isn't foolproof? Have you done anything that was foolproof this game? No? Okay then.dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:55 amI didn't say civs were lying, I'm saying the exercise isn't foolproof, and look at my post to Epi just above. If I was actually a don, I wouldn't have JJJ or Epi or MacDougall on my team.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:50 amA Don who wants those town leaders gone? Food for thought.
And I don't think Epi said he thinks you are bad, he asked us to be more careful with our civ reads because probability says it's extremely likely for a Don to want to pick you. 58% of us said we would, and most of those (46% from probability) as civs so we aren't even lying. If any of those 46% of people were the Don, you would be a lock for bad. So your idea that people would not pick Dunya for a bad team is fallacious, they absolutely would, and if they didn't, then town is very lucky.
And I don't think Epi is the type to get jealous of high posters. I do think he is the type to tinfoil and get bothered by someone getting civ read by everyone, though.
A lot of the logic behind choosing you isn't because you're a bad mafia member; it's because the mafia wouldn't have to deal with you as a civilian.dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:03 am I was picked 11.5 times because I drafted all RYMers into signing up for this game and Syndicators are curious to see my abilities as scum after seeing my abilities as Civ. As a general thought. Yes, dunya would be amazing on my team. But let's get deeper: an RYM don won't choose me over JJJ because I am a bad scum player. I've won twice as scum ever, I believe. I've not been drafted that much, but I lost more scum games than I've won. If it really was down to JJJ or dunya, in the eyes of a RYM don, it'll be JJJ and it won't even be JJJ because he sticks out like a sore thumb. Similarly, I stick out like a sore thumb to a Syndicate don. If you believe Dr. White is the don, then yes, me or JJJ may have equal chances of flipping scum. Otherwise, nah, not buying it and excuse me while I defend myself, as the greatest person who knows myself and my alliance, and debunk Epi's shade and logic.
Again, if the perception of you being a capable civilian is what stands out, then a recruiter isn't going to pick you because he or she wants your mafia skills in his or her corner; you get picked so that the mafia team doesn't have to deal with your civilian skills.
Once again, the biggest discrepancy I found was that you and JJJ received the most picks in the mock draft, but nobody suspects either of you. Why is that?dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:04 amthat's only like a fraction of my post which wasn't intended as a sole argument, but one notch against Epi's survey results which try to implicate me. His argument ends with with "if 50% of players said she's on their team, why didn't anyone vote for her Day 1 except Wilgy" (first of all, I had to debunk that those 50% were original, 100% honest answers....cos I still don't believe 11.5 players (lol) would all have 100% chosen me. I don't believe that at all.)colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:55 amOk now I'm super confused.dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:52 amExcept it happened after the survey's results, and based on them. If I'm mistaken, show me.colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:50 amExcept the paragraph I highlighted is just talking about a Don's mentality before the game, not the exercise.
My understanding is that you are putting forth the argument that no Mafia Don would pick you or JJJ as a teammate because everybody would suspect that you two would be chosen. Is this correct or incorrect?
Second of all, I know you don't know this for certain, but I know I'm town-aligned and I have a strong feeling Jay is too, so I don't agree with his points at all. I'm his greatest opposition. People didn't vote for me at all in Mountains either, not even 1 vote, and I was a town leader all the way, and that was after I subbed in for sprityo who was a suspect. Answer this: why? Because I'm a good civilian player and convince people I'm civ. I don't care if people said they'd recruit me before the game started. I'm town, and I don't have to accumulate votes based on a survey of hypotheticals which can be misconstrued easily.
am I making myself clear cos I feel I am?
Neither dunya nor JJJ is here all the time. We both have obligations which keep us quite busy throughout the day. I seem like I'm here all the time, but I'm not. I make a ton of posts in quick succession and then I'm gone. I would estimate that I visit the Mafia thread slightly more frequently than you do, but my visits by nature amount to more posts. dunya even moreso if this game is any indication.Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:59 am What does dunya do for a living? Is she available to post at all hours of the day? Are you?
I am not. Just posting is easy. I can do it. Posting when you have ten other things that require your attention are not. dunya seems to be here all the time. JJJ seems to be here all the time. Epignosis is not here all the time.
Is this really necessary?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:40 amNeither dunya nor JJJ is here all the time. We both have obligations which keep us quite busy throughout the day. I seem like I'm here all the time, but I'm not. I make a ton of posts in quick succession and then I'm gone. I would estimate that I visit the Mafia thread slightly more frequently than you do, but my visits by nature amount to more posts. dunya even moreso if this game is any indication.Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:59 am What does dunya do for a living? Is she available to post at all hours of the day? Are you?
I am not. Just posting is easy. I can do it. Posting when you have ten other things that require your attention are not. dunya seems to be here all the time. JJJ seems to be here all the time. Epignosis is not here all the time.
If you think you can do it, that's great. Maybe prove me wrong in the summer or something. Blow my mind. Change my life. Until I see it, it's just words on a screen.
I'm not sure you understand what I mean. I don't do that.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:43 am Is this really necessary?
Just because you can use all your non-working, waking hours on mafia, doesn't mean you should.
I don't think "tunneling" means that you only go after one person. It means that you suspect someone for everything they post and hammer it home over and over with few or no exceptions. Other reads can exist independent of that. The semantics aren't especially important though.dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:32 amI hate this. Tunnelling would mean nutella is my only suspect ala sloonei vs cbob in Mountains. That's not what I'm doing here. So I will not calm down. :meanie: How have I tunneled, Jay? if I built a case and kept developing that case with new evidence against her? Heck, I even toyed with the thought that a rabbit8 kill could make her look better.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:08 am nutella, I've a new concern developing about you. I believe you have been subject to tunneling. Both Mac and dunya have done this (both of you calm down, I don't think you look worse for it, but I do think you've tunneled -- so have I in other instances). I believe you have been subject to some weak accusations. I believe the level of fury you have faced has not suited the fury your posts warrant.
What I have done is go after her. Hard, even. But tunneled I have not. No sir, not I.![]()
Sorry, I misinterpreted it.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:49 amI'm not sure you understand what I mean. I don't do that.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:43 am Is this really necessary?
Just because you can use all your non-working, waking hours on mafia, doesn't mean you should.
Nah, you're out of line on that one, dunya. I feel the same way nutella's first paragraph puts it, except maybe a touch more tinfoil.dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:22 amI don't believe your first paragraph. In Mountains mafia, you shared civ reads. I may have even called you out on it because I feel wary of people who Town read people instead of suspecting people as a form of scumhunting. So that is pretty unbelievable to menutella wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:17 am I tend to agree with Jay's theory about high posting in general and I have seen nothing but a whirlwind of civ meta from you so I don't really feel the need to justify that read. I have briefly considered tinfoiling you at a few different points but I keep concluding that you've got to be town.
I'm not mafia and didn't kill rabbit, you can tinfoil whatever motive or wifom you want but it's not the case. I'm pretty damn disappointed that the triangle thing is out of the picture![]()
Why kill Long Con? Does someone need me gone?Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:35 amWhy kill Long Con?
Rabbit was a civilian. He didn't post. No one was gonna protect his ass.