The Syndicate

My goal this game was to be killed Night 1, but I'm surrounded by too much clout.

@G-Man I’m not clear on your explanation for Dolby being more likely innocent (relative to SoA) than falcon. Could you expand or restate?

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:02 am My goal this game was to be killed Night 1, but I'm surrounded by too much clout.

Chili dogs with sauerclout for dinner tomorrow

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:01 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:02 pm @Marmot do you have an opinion regarding who among these players fits the best as an SoA teammate?

falcon, ilario, Johanna

Definitely falcon over Johanna. Johanna spotted the same post from SoA that I did yesterday, which I'm gonna take as a sign that she was just as attentive as I was to a little word choice. SoA's treatment of falcon was uhhh, I think it looked like he felt comfortable pushing a teammate who was never going to get yeeted over sig.

Moving on to review ilario.

Perhaps a follow-up must be then:

falcon over Johanna

NAA over Johanna?

I’ll decide for myself once I can roast on your review a bit and take a look myself tomorrow.

I don't eat meat, but I have made Skyline Chili with lentils, and it ain't half bad.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:06 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:01 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:02 pm @Marmot do you have an opinion regarding who among these players fits the best as an SoA teammate?

falcon, ilario, Johanna

Definitely falcon over Johanna. Johanna spotted the same post from SoA that I did yesterday, which I'm gonna take as a sign that she was just as attentive as I was to a little word choice. SoA's treatment of falcon was uhhh, I think it looked like he felt comfortable pushing a teammate who was never going to get yeeted over sig.

Moving on to review ilario.

Perhaps a follow-up must be then:

falcon over Johanna

NAA over Johanna?

I’ll decide for myself once I can roast on your review a bit and take a look myself tomorrow.

I'd chop NAA over Johanna yeah. I think. It would depend on what happens over the next three chops, and how they play it out, but that's my answer at this moment.

While I think NAA had some reasonable SoA content, I did develop a tinfoil theory that he was mafia and spent Day 3 pushing various team compatibilities with the hopes of keeping one teammate alive in addition to himself.

Dolby -> falcon -> G-Man -> NAA -> Johanna

That's the way I see it pending an ilario review, but given we only get one wrong guess, Johanna doesn't exist on this list, because we only get 4 more chops at most.

I do think G-Man's interactions with SoA look worse than falcon's but given that G-Man appears to be suspecting both of them at this moment, I don't see a problem in putting those two suspects of his before him.

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:47 pm
Even if you don't read the JJJ outcomes of the interactive analyses, he at least did a reasonable legwork compiling the interactions to save time.

Those will hopefully be my breakfast reading in the morning.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:02 am @G-Man I’m not clear on your explanation for Dolby being more likely innocent (relative to SoA) than falcon. Could you expand or restate?

It's not a 'Dolby is more innocent' thing. It's a 'Falcon is more guilty' thing just because Falcon's been on my radar for a phase longer. I didn't pick up on Dolby until I read his ISO and saw that the forest wasn't as impressive as some of the individual trees.

Perhaps I can deep dive into Dolby again over lunch, but I have to prep for my evening obligation at lunchtime as well.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:12 am Dolby -> falcon -> G-Man -> NAA -> Johanna

That's the way I see it pending an ilario review, but given we only get one wrong guess, Johanna doesn't exist on this list, because we only get 4 more chops at most.

I think that is our task. If we accept Dizzy as town, then to secure the game we must also accept two of those six names as town.

We’ve been accepting NAA generally. You’re smart to use this day as the day to examine that. The ilario connection to SoA is substantial though (and in need of more eyes than mine), which had led me to calling NAA and Johanna the town. I wish I could assert a little more certitude.

G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:14 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:47 pm
Even if you don't read the JJJ outcomes of the interactive analyses, he at least did a reasonable legwork compiling the interactions to save time.

Those will hopefully be my breakfast reading in the morning.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:02 am @G-Man I’m not clear on your explanation for Dolby being more likely innocent (relative to SoA) than falcon. Could you expand or restate?

It's not a 'Dolby is more innocent' thing. It's a 'Falcon is more guilty' thing just because Falcon's been on my radar for a phase longer. I didn't pick up on Dolby until I read his ISO and saw that the forest wasn't as impressive as some of the individual trees.

Perhaps I can deep dive into Dolby again over lunch, but I have to prep for my evening obligation at lunchtime as well.

I’d love to hear what @Dolby and @falcon45ca each think of G-Man’s perspectives.

Post count supports a POE with ilario and falcon both in it. *chorus of groans*

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:12 am Dolby -> falcon -> G-Man -> NAA -> Johanna

That's the way I see it pending an ilario review, but given we only get one wrong guess, Johanna doesn't exist on this list, because we only get 4 more chops at most.

Third in line is suitable for me, so long as we chop two baddies before I'm "dealt with." I'm a mischop. I'd rather be a mischop that happens with a buffer than a mischop that loses us the game.

It's currently (6+1)v3. If we chop a baddie today, then it becomes (5+1)v2. That would give us two mischops as our buffer instead of one, right? If we get two in a row, we're at (4+1)v1, which is just as comfy I think.

It's late. Maths might not be right. Bed.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:17 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:12 am Dolby -> falcon -> G-Man -> NAA -> Johanna

That's the way I see it pending an ilario review, but given we only get one wrong guess, Johanna doesn't exist on this list, because we only get 4 more chops at most.

I think that is our task. If we accept Dizzy as town, then to secure the game we must also accept two of those six names as town.

We’ve been accepting NAA generally. You’re smart to use this day as the day to examine that. The ilario connection to SoA is substantial though (and in need of more eyes than mine), which had led me to calling NAA and Johanna the town. I wish I could assert a little more certitude.

I read your assessment and I've concluded that I agree that it's somewhat worriesome. I'd put his name before NAA tbh.

Dolby -> falcon -> G-Man -> ilario -> (NAA -> Johanna)

That's my current take. I think ilario will be easier to evaluate after a second or third wolf flip if we happen to be wrong on one of our first three. One of the challenges is that our only transparent comparison is with SoA, of whom we saw so much buddying. Seeing how ilario treated other wolves would be more useful.

It’s impossible to gain a mischop.

@Marmot one related thing you could look at if you’ve the time and inclination (I can’t on mobile) is how SoA treated our confirmed town players, including the dead ones. It may provide at least some kind of roadmap, though it should be interpreted carefully.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:22 am It’s impossible to gain a mischop.

That sucks.

G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:20 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:12 am Dolby -> falcon -> G-Man -> NAA -> Johanna

That's the way I see it pending an ilario review, but given we only get one wrong guess, Johanna doesn't exist on this list, because we only get 4 more chops at most.

Third in line is suitable for me, so long as we chop two baddies before I'm "dealt with." I'm a mischop. I'd rather be a mischop that happens with a buffer than a mischop that loses us the game.

It's currently (6+1)v3. If we chop a baddie today, then it becomes (5+1)v2. That would give us two mischops as our buffer instead of one, right? If we get two in a row, we're at (4+1)v1, which is just as comfy I think.

It's late. Maths might not be right. Bed.

We only get one mischop.

I think you mean (6 + 1) v 3 ==> (6 + 0) v 2 in the case of a correct chop. Two mischops starting today would play out as follows.

(6 + 1) v 3 ==> (5 + 0) v 3
(4 + 1) v 3 ==> (3 + 0) v 3

So yeah. Only one mischop.


Trends also suggest that if you are town, you will provide more insight for us over the coming days than if falcon or Dolby are town. That's another reason I put them earlier in the list.

Your visualization for how the game looks is excellent G-Man. Thanks for that.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:24 am @Marmot one related thing you could look at if you’ve the time and inclination (I can’t on mobile) is how SoA treated our confirmed town players, including the dead ones. It may provide at least some kind of roadmap, though it should be interpreted carefully.

I'll give it a go. He only had 100 posts (compared to your gargantuan iso).

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:19 pm Please refrain from hammers for at least 24 hours, so I can make the most of my poisoning. I’m still recovering from Bengals rage.

Quickly:

Team theory 1: G-Man, Dolby, ilario

Team theory 2: G-Man, Dolby, falcon

If either is correct that’s a winning POE pool anyway. If not, it’s ip to the people named here to change the dynamic.

I think we kill G-Man and Dolby first and see where we're at. POE's probably good though.

“I might have to cap myself at 10 posts per phase.”

- JaggedJimmyJay, Fleabag Mafia sign-up thread

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:29 am “I might have to cap myself at 10 posts per phase.”

- JaggedJimmyJay, Fleabag Mafia sign-up thread

I might've said something like that too.

I do believe that Dolby should be eliminated before G-Man.

Oh hi TSP, don't ferget to call your votes itt

I think falcon is probably rand

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:30 am Oh hi TSP, don't ferget to call your votes itt

I haven't voted

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:32 am I think falcon is probably rand

Views on ilario, Johanna, and NAA?

I'd vote NAA over joh here I think

I'd vote ilario before falcon

order -> dolby -> ilario -> G -> falcon (-> NAA) but anyone not named dolby can post themselves clear

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:32 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:30 am Oh hi TSP, don't ferget to call your votes itt

I haven't voted

Oh I meant in general. I don't know when you voted yesterday.

probably at approx the one time I reared my head in thread

falcon's not really posting himself clear, do you think that's rand town for him?

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:36 am falcon's not really posting himself clear, do you think that's rand town for him?

yeah but also it's kinda about how he posts. there's a recent wolf game for comparison (Witcher). my guess is my old meta tells are weaker than they used to be but in witcher he's still pretty clearly in wolf meta by the end of the game

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:37 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:36 am falcon's not really posting himself clear, do you think that's rand town for him?

yeah but also it's kinda about how he posts. there's a recent wolf game for comparison (Witcher). my guess is my old meta tells are weaker than they used to be but in witcher he's still pretty clearly in wolf meta by the end of the game

How would you describe mafia falcon? I haven’t seen much if any before.

He can't really generate the same excitement, he feels more normal, and he openwolfs hard (he occasionally also does this as town)

I think he's largely removed a lot of the tonal tells but it used to be reasonably obvious on d1 (imo). But his Day 1 in Witcher was tonally on point, fooled both me and Alison.

I'm not sure if the G-Man fixation on falcon is good or bad, or what. It's a bit weird to me, I guess, to subordinate everything to the one singular push.

If the PoE is correct then it would be the case that the wolves tried to bus falcon on D2, but it is not very clear to me what for. You can't get cred if you don't chop and Lime Coke was the thread's favourite.

I think yesterday I was already asking if certain actions were basically distancing.

My current lead theory is that falcon is the patsy and mafia are trying their absolute best to get him chopped to force us into Limlo. That would apply to both ilario and G-Man.

The main wrench is that falcon legitimately has been suspicious, and I think he’s a decent fit with SoA. As of now I don’t think I chop him before G-Man, and certainly not before Dolby.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:24 am My current lead theory is that falcon is the patsy and mafia are trying their absolute best to get him chopped to force us into Limlo. That would apply to both ilario and G-Man.

The main wrench is that falcon legitimately has been suspicious, and I think he’s a decent fit with SoA. As of now I don’t think I chop him before G-Man, and certainly not before Dolby.

The vote I placed on Falcon comes from legitimate suspicion from civvie me. It’s not a conceit or ploy on my part to help the baddies win. I don’t want the baddies to win.

Also, it starts a second prospective wagon. Piling onto one wagon doesn’t generate as much information to glean from the results about those who remain. Vote Dolby if you think that’s the right move. This feels right for me.

Lastly, thinking independently is more appealing to me than just rolling over and doing whatever the remaining resident Type-A supatown tells us to do.

Me 10 pages ago... Soo we're chopping Dolby?

Me now, we're still chopping Dolby?

Ok you kids have fun.

See if you can make it to 100 by EoD.

Also, Ilario stopped playing the moment town (and therefore mafia) were essentially forced to lock themselves into an auto world due to shrinking PoE.

I'm game to let G-Man live up until we stumble on a towny, I see him actually trying, albeit, I'm not actually reading... So his posts could all be goo goo ga ga and it would be all the same to me.

@JaggedJimmyJay Re my town read on Soa, I think I did explain it briefly in the post you quoted. I felt his kind of forward energy was towny, like how he said he'd make an enemy out of all the no posters. If the no posters were town or mostly town, it's more uncommon for mafia to be openly antagonistic in that way. However, no posters where Dolby, G-Man and Johanna, so it could make more sense if Dolby and G-Man are mafia. Obviously, the initial feeling I got from Soa was just wrong. He fell off for me the less he posted and especially with how desperate he seemed before he was chopped. And I think that just points to the PoE being good.

I'm at work, and don't actually have much time to play this week tbh

I'll vote Dolby, since G-Man is posting and showing more effort here.

[VOTE: Dolby] aubergine

It's so quiet today.

Johanna wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:28 am It's so quiet today.

There's nothing to discuss aside from the election, but y'all aren't Canadian.

We might consider timing a hammer such that EOD is timed better. If I’d known it would change the game schedule I might not have done it when I did last time.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:43 am We might consider timing a hammer such that EOD is timed better. If I’d known it would change the game schedule I might not have done it when I did last time.

Are you the god of hammers?