The Syndicate

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Here is my Day 4 Rainbow list.

Soneji
MovingPictures07
Golden
ika
Scotty
sig
a2thezebra
DrWilgy

The colors indicate moderate town, neutral/null, moderate scum, strong scum.


Based on my last rainbow list, very little has changed. Zebra dropped from neutral to strong scum read, but it is surprisingly static otherwise. Oh well.

Talk to me about your Soneji, ika, and zebra reads.

Would you rather lynch zebra or Wilgy? Or, stated otherwise, are your reads listed preferentially within groups or not?

kinda wish i hammered now jsut to see reactions....

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Here is my Day 4 Rainbow list.

Soneji
MovingPictures07
Golden
ika
Scotty
sig
a2thezebra
DrWilgy

The colors indicate moderate town, neutral/null, moderate scum, strong scum.


Based on my last rainbow list, very little has changed. Zebra dropped from neutral to strong scum read, but it is surprisingly static otherwise. Oh well.

Talk to me about your Soneji, ika, and zebra reads.

Would you rather lynch zebra or Wilgy? Or, stated otherwise, are your reads listed preferentially within groups or not?

Hmm, Soneji I have as strong town because I've liked what he brought to the table so far. For example on Day 1, he didn't join the thread until very late in the day phase, but he came in swinging against sig. I also like what Epignosis said on Day 1 here, and I think it's far more likely that sig is the one.

As for ika, I haven't paid much attention to him. I should change that. I don't really care that he said he would kill Silverwolf if he was scum. That is exactly the sort of thing I would say regardless of my alignment.

And zebra, I really really dislike the hammer vote yesterday. In addition to that, she's been flinging a lot of poo around the thread.

I would lynch Wilgy first, but I'd be fine lynching either. I do think that mafia has not been paying as much attention to the thread as I would have expected, based on the nightkill choices. If you or Golden were mafia, I think we would have seen at least one power role for the civilians dead by now.

ika wrote:kinda wish i hammered now jsut to see reactions....

You better thank your stars you didn't.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

ika wrote:kinda wish i hammered now jsut to see reactions....

You better thank your stars you didn't.

How come?

With regards to zebra, she had a long-winded argument with Golden on Day 2 about him being... Golden. But we've gotten nothing but one-liners from her since then.

Linki: Because I woulda pulled out a can of whoop-ass.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Here is my Day 4 Rainbow list.

Soneji
MovingPictures07
Golden
ika
Scotty
sig
a2thezebra
DrWilgy

The colors indicate moderate town, neutral/null, moderate scum, strong scum.


Based on my last rainbow list, very little has changed. Zebra dropped from neutral to strong scum read, but it is surprisingly static otherwise. Oh well.

Talk to me about your Soneji, ika, and zebra reads.

Would you rather lynch zebra or Wilgy? Or, stated otherwise, are your reads listed preferentially within groups or not?

Hmm, Soneji I have as strong town because I've liked what he brought to the table so far. For example on Day 1, he didn't join the thread until very late in the day phase, but he came in swinging against sig. I also like what Epignosis said on Day 1 here, and I think it's far more likely that sig is the one.

As for ika, I haven't paid much attention to him. I should change that. I don't really care that he said he would kill Silverwolf if he was scum. That is exactly the sort of thing I would say regardless of my alignment.

And zebra, I really really dislike the hammer vote yesterday. In addition to that, she's been flinging a lot of poo around the thread.

I would lynch Wilgy first, but I'd be fine lynching either. I do think that mafia has not been paying as much attention to the thread as I would have expected, based on the nightkill choices. If you or Golden were mafia, I think we would have seen at least one power role for the civilians dead by now.

Yeah, inevitably it's WIFOM, but in my view the mafia clearly aren't power role hunting. Which is silly IMO.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Golden, who are the top 3 players you'd like to lynch today and why? I know you've talked about this to some degree already, but I think it's worth discussing nonetheless.

Hmm, the third is a challenge.

Wilgy is top, because he basically fits into any team I conceive of, and he has done nothing to contribute as town. He manages to combine being my top scum read with being the person I'd least like to still have to deal with at lylo. A wilgy lynch is a very easy call for me. I wish I'd gone that way yesterday (when I went to bed with my vote on Matt/sloonei I was thinking that night about whether I'd stay on sloonei or switch to wilgy - I think it probably ultimately would have stayed at sloonei but marco's points really were hitting home.)

Zebra is second. I don't really understand what is going on with zebra this game, but her behaviour does not feel like it is coming from a town-mindset. I think perhaps I genuinely upset her on day two and that has affected her approach to the game, I don't know. Sometimes it feels that way. However, after briefly seeing a little bit of genuine town mindset towards end of day one/start of day two there has been nothing else that suggests that to me. As with wilgy, I would not want to be with zebra at lylo.

I've already been pretty clear that I'd like one of these to be lynched today and the other to be sniped by the town vigilante tonight, and I hope that works out. If they are both bad, we'd have 6 or 7 left with 1 scum which would be more favourable. If both are town, I'll be gobsmacked. I could see either being bad without the other, although if I were told only one of them is bad I would lean Wilgy over zebra.

All things considered, I lean ika as third, although it is by such a small margin over others. I don't deeply suspect ika. I think ika has raised good points (like his point on sig, which I did think about, but in the end it simply didn't convince me sig was bad). But, there have been some challenges put to ika that I don't think he has handled so well... like, for instance, why he would take silverwolf's perspective on MP over other people who have actually played with MP. I think silverwolf has already proven to be an insightful player and I completely understand trusting her reads (I somewhat do already) - but there is still an extent to which listening to and taking on board those who know better is what someone would do. Ultimately, ika third over someone like scotty is also probably just as much about 'who would I feel ok being with at lylo'

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I would lynch Wilgy first, but I'd be fine lynching either. I do think that mafia has not been paying as much attention to the thread as I would have expected, based on the nightkill choices. If you or Golden were mafia, I think we would have seen at least one power role for the civilians dead by now.

I completely agree with this. It also has been part of what is feeding in. Mind you, zebra I think is paying attention to the thread and is choosing a wifom strategy, whatever her alignment. Wilgy doesn't seem to be paying attention so much. Psi obviously wasn't... so maybe I should be suspecting Scotty more.

What did you think about my ideas on which set up look most likely? I feel like mafia role cop seems less likely right now.

Golden wrote:
All things considered, I lean ika as third, although it is by such a small margin over others. I don't deeply suspect ika. I think ika has raised good points (like his point on sig, which I did think about, but in the end it simply didn't convince me sig was bad). But, there have been some challenges put to ika that I don't think he has handled so well... like, for instance, why he would take silverwolf's perspective on MP over other people who have actually played with MP. I think silverwolf has already proven to be an insightful player and I completely understand trusting her reads (I somewhat do already) - but there is still an extent to which listening to and taking on board those who know better is what someone would do. Ultimately, ika third over someone like scotty is also probably just as much about 'who would I feel ok being with at lylo'

Simple on why, i trust silver over anyone else. when it comes to mafia her intuition on finding scum is better then any i have encountered.

gold how come after all this time MP isnt dead? how come you still treat him as town too? didnt you say yourself that your constantly reevaluating the situation? how come you have not even batted an eye at MP even after silvers death?

@ika - simple. I am as certain as I can be that MP is town without having a role that I can use to confirm it with info. If MP is scum he is playing the best scum game I've ever seen him play by a considerable margin.

@ika - how do you feel about wilgy, independent of whatever else is going on?

Golden wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Golden, who are the top 3 players you'd like to lynch today and why? I know you've talked about this to some degree already, but I think it's worth discussing nonetheless.

Hmm, the third is a challenge.

Wilgy is top, because he basically fits into any team I conceive of, and he has done nothing to contribute as town. He manages to combine being my top scum read with being the person I'd least like to still have to deal with at lylo. A wilgy lynch is a very easy call for me. I wish I'd gone that way yesterday (when I went to bed with my vote on Matt/sloonei I was thinking that night about whether I'd stay on sloonei or switch to wilgy - I think it probably ultimately would have stayed at sloonei but marco's points really were hitting home.)

Zebra is second. I don't really understand what is going on with zebra this game, but her behaviour does not feel like it is coming from a town-mindset. I think perhaps I genuinely upset her on day two and that has affected her approach to the game, I don't know. Sometimes it feels that way. However, after briefly seeing a little bit of genuine town mindset towards end of day one/start of day two there has been nothing else that suggests that to me. As with wilgy, I would not want to be with zebra at lylo.

I've already been pretty clear that I'd like one of these to be lynched today and the other to be sniped by the town vigilante tonight, and I hope that works out. If they are both bad, we'd have 6 or 7 left with 1 scum which would be more favourable. If both are town, I'll be gobsmacked. I could see either being bad without the other, although if I were told only one of them is bad I would lean Wilgy over zebra.

All things considered, I lean ika as third, although it is by such a small margin over others. I don't deeply suspect ika. I think ika has raised good points (like his point on sig, which I did think about, but in the end it simply didn't convince me sig was bad). But, there have been some challenges put to ika that I don't think he has handled so well... like, for instance, why he would take silverwolf's perspective on MP over other people who have actually played with MP. I think silverwolf has already proven to be an insightful player and I completely understand trusting her reads (I somewhat do already) - but there is still an extent to which listening to and taking on board those who know better is what someone would do. Ultimately, ika third over someone like scotty is also probably just as much about 'who would I feel ok being with at lylo'

This is good stuff. Thanks for elaborating. I'll be sure to give you mine once I'm done with these analyses too, if you want, though if I were to say right now what my preferences are they'd look pretty similar.

Golden wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I would lynch Wilgy first, but I'd be fine lynching either. I do think that mafia has not been paying as much attention to the thread as I would have expected, based on the nightkill choices. If you or Golden were mafia, I think we would have seen at least one power role for the civilians dead by now.

I completely agree with this. It also has been part of what is feeding in. Mind you, zebra I think is paying attention to the thread and is choosing a wifom strategy, whatever her alignment. Wilgy doesn't seem to be paying attention so much. Psi obviously wasn't... so maybe I should be suspecting Scotty more.

What did you think about my ideas on which set up look most likely? I feel like mafia role cop seems less likely right now.

Actually, combining those two points together, I agree that the mafia role cop is unlikely at this point.

Anyway, here are the definitely possible scenarios left.
And I rate them as F > 4 > 1 > C in terms of likelihood.

ika wrote:

Golden wrote:
All things considered, I lean ika as third, although it is by such a small margin over others. I don't deeply suspect ika. I think ika has raised good points (like his point on sig, which I did think about, but in the end it simply didn't convince me sig was bad). But, there have been some challenges put to ika that I don't think he has handled so well... like, for instance, why he would take silverwolf's perspective on MP over other people who have actually played with MP. I think silverwolf has already proven to be an insightful player and I completely understand trusting her reads (I somewhat do already) - but there is still an extent to which listening to and taking on board those who know better is what someone would do. Ultimately, ika third over someone like scotty is also probably just as much about 'who would I feel ok being with at lylo'

Simple on why, i trust silver over anyone else. when it comes to mafia her intuition on finding scum is better then any i have encountered.

gold how come after all this time MP isnt dead? how come you still treat him as town too? didnt you say yourself that your constantly reevaluating the situation? how come you have not even batted an eye at MP even after silvers death?

The tinfoil argument? Fun. WIFOM.

Golden wrote:@ika - simple. I am as certain as I can be that MP is town without having a role that I can use to confirm it with info. If MP is scum he is playing the best scum game I've ever seen him play by a considerable margin.

You can read me well.

What I should have done is said jackshit all game until Day 4, then vote MP with a bullshit case. His reaction would have told me what his alignment is.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:What I should have done is said jackshit all game until Day 4, then vote MP with a bullshit case. His reaction would have told me what his alignment is.

Touche.

Interesting. I had 4 last, I think. But we both have F first.

zebra, can you provide a reads list?

Going to resume interaction analyses now. Seems ika is next. This one should be interesting.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

ika wrote:

Golden wrote:
All things considered, I lean ika as third, although it is by such a small margin over others. I don't deeply suspect ika. I think ika has raised good points (like his point on sig, which I did think about, but in the end it simply didn't convince me sig was bad). But, there have been some challenges put to ika that I don't think he has handled so well... like, for instance, why he would take silverwolf's perspective on MP over other people who have actually played with MP. I think silverwolf has already proven to be an insightful player and I completely understand trusting her reads (I somewhat do already) - but there is still an extent to which listening to and taking on board those who know better is what someone would do. Ultimately, ika third over someone like scotty is also probably just as much about 'who would I feel ok being with at lylo'

Simple on why, i trust silver over anyone else. when it comes to mafia her intuition on finding scum is better then any i have encountered.

gold how come after all this time MP isnt dead? how come you still treat him as town too? didnt you say yourself that your constantly reevaluating the situation? how come you have not even batted an eye at MP even after silvers death?

The tinfoil argument? Fun. WIFOM.

Not that meaningful, though, when you look at the actual victims who have been basically strong town reads.

Time to move your vote back to wilgy, MP. Don't lose sight of zebra's vote shifts.

Golden wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

ika wrote:

Golden wrote:
All things considered, I lean ika as third, although it is by such a small margin over others. I don't deeply suspect ika. I think ika has raised good points (like his point on sig, which I did think about, but in the end it simply didn't convince me sig was bad). But, there have been some challenges put to ika that I don't think he has handled so well... like, for instance, why he would take silverwolf's perspective on MP over other people who have actually played with MP. I think silverwolf has already proven to be an insightful player and I completely understand trusting her reads (I somewhat do already) - but there is still an extent to which listening to and taking on board those who know better is what someone would do. Ultimately, ika third over someone like scotty is also probably just as much about 'who would I feel ok being with at lylo'

Simple on why, i trust silver over anyone else. when it comes to mafia her intuition on finding scum is better then any i have encountered.

gold how come after all this time MP isnt dead? how come you still treat him as town too? didnt you say yourself that your constantly reevaluating the situation? how come you have not even batted an eye at MP even after silvers death?

The tinfoil argument? Fun. WIFOM.

Not that meaningful, though, when you look at the actual victims who have been basically strong town reads.

That's true. I think we can assume the most likely mafia targets each night were: Silverwolf (n1), Dyslexicon (n2), and Marco (n3). They all would fit that criteria.

Golden wrote:Time to move your vote back to wilgy, MP. Don't lose sight of zebra's vote shifts.

Noted, thanks, I'm fine with that since my vote will still put us 2 away from hammer. Let's just be sure not to give ika or anyone else the opportunity to hammer anyone.

VOTE DRWILGY

MovingPictures07 wrote:zebra, can you provide a reads list?

a2thezebra
ika
DrWilgy
MEtalmarsh89
MovingPictures07
Golden
Soneji
Scotty
sig

Well, I mean, zebra could easily just shift back...

I guess at this point it is tricky either way. An ideal move might be for soneji to also unvote - if you are there soneji!

I'd rather see the hammer go down on wilgy than scotty, though.

VOTE DRWILGY

Beware of hammers.

Ugh.

UNVOTE

Zebra, why do you think fucking with us is a good plan?

a2thezebra wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:zebra, can you provide a reads list?

a2thezebra
ika
DrWilgy
MEtalmarsh89
MovingPictures07
Golden
Soneji
Scotty
sig

Care to explain the Wilgy read, considering your vote has been off and on him throughout the day?

This is a novel idea but how about we lynch Zebra today? She is interfering with any attempt to scum hunt.

sig wrote:This is a novel idea but how about we lynch Zebra today? She is interfering with any attempt to scum hunt.

I could consider it, especially after that teammate analysis.

sig wrote:This is a novel idea but how about we lynch Zebra today? She is interfering with any attempt to scum hunt.

Why do you seem so unwilling to consider a Wilgy lynch?

Golden wrote:

sig wrote:This is a novel idea but how about we lynch Zebra today? She is interfering with any attempt to scum hunt.

Why do you seem so unwilling to consider a Wilgy lynch?

I'd also like to know this.

The only reason I'm not voting zebra is tinfoiling a wilgy/sig team tbh.

Am I wrong to tinfoil this? Is there any reason I can put this idea to rest?

Because I'd be open to a zebra lynch if I wasn't paranoid that sig is pushing it that way to keep wilgy alive.

Golden wrote:The only reason I'm not voting zebra is tinfoiling a wilgy/sig team tbh.

Am I wrong to tinfoil this? Is there any reason I can put this idea to rest?

Because I'd be open to a zebra lynch if I wasn't paranoid that sig is pushing it that way to keep wilgy alive.

What about a Wilgy, sig, and zebra team?

I know, it sounds insane, but the distance between zebra and sig could explain a lot of their collective behavior right now.

Golden wrote:

sig wrote:This is a novel idea but how about we lynch Zebra today? She is interfering with any attempt to scum hunt.

Why do you seem so unwilling to consider a Wilgy lynch?

It was less that I was unwilling and more that I was the other wagon and if he had voted for me I could've been hammered. I was also to a lesser extent unsure of his wagon. I do think it was mainly civ driven and like it much more then the scotty one at this point, but I was still unsure. I've reread the thread and If it is between Wilgy and Scotty I'd rather vote for Wilgy him faking a red check is really weird, plus his lack of contributing.

However, I think Zebra looks much worse right now then wilgy and my vote will stay there.

linki: Yes MP it does sound and it is insane. Maybe we have an Ika/Golden/MP team?

I'd really rather lynch Zebra today then Wilgy and defiantly both more then Scotty. I do find it odd though Soneji is on the same wagon as Wilgy.

I'm willing to consider that we could pretty much have a ????/????/???? team right now, except for me. I'm not scum.

Sig has pretty consistently been after zebra since day one. If it's distance, it's an ocean, and it's a good play...

definitely*

Golden wrote:Sig has pretty consistently been after zebra since day one. If it's distance, it's an ocean, and it's a good play...

It's not something I'd put past either of them though.

I don't trust any of you.

Okay, back to analysis. At this pace, I'll be done 10 years from now.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Golden wrote:Sig has pretty consistently been after zebra since day one. If it's distance, it's an ocean, and it's a good play...

It's not something I'd put past either of them though.

No, indeed not. Sig would have to be on it from before they were talking as a team. It's not impossible, but it's not what I think is actually happening.

I'm open to a zebra lynch but it makes me more paranoid than a wilgy lynch.

Golden wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Golden wrote:Sig has pretty consistently been after zebra since day one. If it's distance, it's an ocean, and it's a good play...

It's not something I'd put past either of them though.

No, indeed not. Sig would have to be on it from before they were talking as a team. It's not impossible, but it's not what I think is actually happening.

I'm open to a zebra lynch but it makes me more paranoid than a wilgy lynch.

Yeah, it would be a bit of a stretch. I'd rather lynch Wilgy too.

A quick iso of sig does leave him IAWY teammate compatible for sure. I can at least see why people would genuinely be suspicious of him.