The Syndicate

Ermac said the kill wasn't blocked.

Not sure how trustworthy that player or his information are.

I'm a page into Nutella's ISO and I don't see all the badness Tony states is there. If anything, early Nutella looks pretty town to me.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:53 pm Ermac said the kill wasn't blocked.

Not sure how trustworthy that player or his information are.

Did he? Huh.

And if nutella was a roleblocked killer, held back by dunya, the kill never would have even reached its target in the first place. Nutella wouldn't even show up as a visit. Right?

So how would Ermac have known about the target?

I've been at a party instead of looking at Dunya's posts like I said I would but this has been ruminating in my head. Nutella isn't clear, but I don't think Dunya's pseudo-claim holds if Ermac is telling truth.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:01 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:53 pm Ermac said the kill wasn't blocked.

Not sure how trustworthy that player or his information are.

Did he? Huh.

And if nutella was a roleblocked killer, held back by dunya, the kill never would have even reached its target in the first place. Nutella wouldn't even show up as a visit. Right?

So how would Ermac have known about the target?

I've been at a party instead of looking at Dunya's posts like I said I would but this has been ruminating in my head. Nutella isn't clear, but I don't think Dunya's pseudo-claim holds if Ermac is telling truth.

This is exactly what I'm getting at. There's very little chance of anyone knowing the mafia target if the mafia hitman was blocked.

I believe Dunya blocked Nutella or tried to. I don't think Nutella is the mafia killer.

More Nutella iso.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:29 pm This Nutella read comes to you in two parts. The first part is me just looking for things I don't like in Nutella.



AND I just decided that that doesn't matter. Because you guys can all look through the ISO and see how scummy it is. I don't have more insight into Nutella as a player than most of you and I already pointed out the really scummy posts. The second part is why I'm confident in this read.

dunya wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:24 am No kill



Nutella is bad.

Epignosis wrote:
Sheeva
Furious Stomp: Queen Sindel’s Shokan bodyguard blocks her target.

Tell me somebody noticed this.

And there might be more.

This post is crap.

There's nothing scummy about Nutella's iso. The block theory is bad.

Tony is probably bad.

[mention]lapluie[/mention] [mention]Glorfindel[/mention] [mention]Marmot[/mention] [mention]Long Con[/mention] [mention]nutella[/mention] [mention]Quin[/mention] [mention]Kylemii[/mention]

You are the players I am relatively sure are not mafia. I strongly think we should lynch Tony or Wilgy today.

Please advise.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:13 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:29 pm This Nutella read comes to you in two parts. The first part is me just looking for things I don't like in Nutella.



AND I just decided that that doesn't matter. Because you guys can all look through the ISO and see how scummy it is. I don't have more insight into Nutella as a player than most of you and I already pointed out the really scummy posts. The second part is why I'm confident in this read.

dunya wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:24 am No kill



Nutella is bad.

Epignosis wrote:
Sheeva
Furious Stomp: Queen Sindel’s Shokan bodyguard blocks her target.

Tell me somebody noticed this.

And there might be more.

This post is crap.

There's nothing scummy about Nutella's iso. The block theory is bad.

Tony is probably bad.

Jack I think you’re Town so I need you’re opinion on what’s bolded above. What do you think TSP could mean by this?

It means you're either gonna post more later or you're softclaiming info gatherer.

So I'm waiting or I don't believe you.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:17 pm @lapluie @Glorfindel @Marmot @Long Con @nutella @Quin @Kylemii

You are the players I am relatively sure are not mafia. I strongly think we should lynch Tony or Wilgy today.

Please advise.

Idk. I could go either way. Leaning slightly towards Tony cus I feel like the people pushing away from Tony are the ones I trust the least rn. I also don't believe this is civ Wilgy, but it also seems like sometimes Wilgy just like.... doesn't care about contributing?

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:54 pm

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:00 am

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:47 am

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:27 am

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:51 am Can you point out the post that gave you the impression lapluie was being manipulative?

It wasn’t one specific post, it was more a general tonal thing. Perhaps manipulative was the wrong word - perhaps unauthentic, if that’s a word I’ll see what I can find to demonstrate what I mean. May I also please ask your opinion of Kyle? I really want to believe he’s OK but just when I start to believe...

Congrats on the cruise too! May I ask where you’re going and for how long? At the rate we’re going, this game will be well and truly over by the time you leave - please forgive my negativity )

GTH I call him town. I've lost interest in my early beefs with him. I don't think his comments about marmot reflect badly on him.

I'm staying in Sydney for a night and then heading to NZ. Gonna make stops in Auckland and some other cities/islands. I'll be back on the 8th.

May I also ask how you interpret Jay’s earlier claim specifically in relation to Rule # 3 for this game?

Cool! Need someone to carry your bags?

I think we should leave that up to Epi.

No, I have three brothers to push all the heavy lifting on to

Quin, please explain to me what you mean by ‘leaving it up to Epi’? Epi hasn’t intervened in what appears to be a deliberate breach of Rule 3. Why do you think that is? Is it possible that it wasn’t a breach of Rule 3 at all?

ugh. idk. Tony's posts iso read so genuine, and a wilgy lynch almost always feels like a shot in the dark.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:17 pm @lapluie @Glorfindel @Marmot @Long Con @nutella @Quin @Kylemii

You are the players I am relatively sure are not mafia. I strongly think we should lynch Tony or Wilgy today.

Please advise.

More likely to vote Tony over Wilgy. Wanna throw me a case on each? I've got no read on Tony and reading civ on Wilgy.

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:47 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:54 pm

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:00 am

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:47 am

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:27 am

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:51 am Can you point out the post that gave you the impression lapluie was being manipulative?

It wasn’t one specific post, it was more a general tonal thing. Perhaps manipulative was the wrong word - perhaps unauthentic, if that’s a word I’ll see what I can find to demonstrate what I mean. May I also please ask your opinion of Kyle? I really want to believe he’s OK but just when I start to believe...

Congrats on the cruise too! May I ask where you’re going and for how long? At the rate we’re going, this game will be well and truly over by the time you leave - please forgive my negativity )

GTH I call him town. I've lost interest in my early beefs with him. I don't think his comments about marmot reflect badly on him.

I'm staying in Sydney for a night and then heading to NZ. Gonna make stops in Auckland and some other cities/islands. I'll be back on the 8th.

May I also ask how you interpret Jay’s earlier claim specifically in relation to Rule # 3 for this game?

Cool! Need someone to carry your bags?

I think we should leave that up to Epi.

No, I have three brothers to push all the heavy lifting on to

Quin, please explain to me what you mean by ‘leaving it up to Epi’? Epi hasn’t intervened in what appears to be a deliberate breach of Rule 3. Why do you think that is? Is it possible that it wasn’t a breach of Rule 3 at all?

You said "I am town" earlier in the game. Was that a breach of rule three?
I think the reason Jay was clear is that he didn't claim a role. He simply alignment claimed. That's not direct role claiming.

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:50 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:17 pm @lapluie @Glorfindel @Marmot @Long Con @nutella @Quin @Kylemii

You are the players I am relatively sure are not mafia. I strongly think we should lynch Tony or Wilgy today.

Please advise.

More likely to vote Tony over Wilgy. Wanna throw me a case on each? I've got no read on Tony and reading civ on Wilgy.

Tony has stated/implied/stated he believes multiple things that it would hurt the townies to believe:
1) Lynching Simon is a bad idea even if he is mafia
2) Simon is likely town
3) Dunya stopped a kill by blocking Nutella
4) Nutella's ISO is so obviously bad that it is self evident and no posts are needed to show this
5) The town has around 3 mislynch chances

Countercase (ie WIFOM)
1) Voted Glor on Day 2. Mafia wouldn't do this right?
2) Said he didn't want to lynch Simon, then Simon leaves the lynch poll, presumably due to mafia night action. Mafia wouldn't do this, right?



Wilgy is pointedly not trying to help the town.
1) Did no hunting on Day 1, instead stating Sloonei, Dunya are bad over and over.
2) Did no hunting on Day 2 and ignored accusations against him. Responded to Kyle's posts as if Kyle was playing a Pokémon role playing game instead of asking for his help in this game.
3) Did nothing on Day 3 except drop a bad vote on Dunya or Speedchuck (I forget which). Didn't state why he was voting.
4) Today, comes in with a ridiculous reason to vote me and weighs in on none of the highly interesting events of the last two phases.

This is in contrast to Pirates Wilgy, who was supertown without even using words or even average Wilgy who at least messes around and tries to find baddies.

Countercase:
Wilgy acted similar to this in Streetfighter. I thought he was a baddie with lynch protection who was trying to draw attention to himself by being extra suspicious. That's how bad he looked in that game. It's possible Wilgy is doing here what he was doing there, whatever the hell that is.

is it possible they're both bad? [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention]

Here's a baddie Tony in another game if anyone cares.

http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/search.ph ... id=5080122

For reference, his teammates where TheBoyBlunder (TBB), DarqFeonix (and the briefly CBob, who was good earlier) and hydramate Rokk Krinn.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:37 am is it possible they're both bad? Jackofhearts2005

I don't see any reason to think they couldn't be w/w but I also don't see any obvious links.

If I had to pick out the mafia right now ftw, I'd probably put them both on it. Only one gets lynched today and I badly want to avoid a mislynch.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:41 am Here's a baddie Tony in another game if anyone cares.

http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/search.ph ... id=5080122

For reference, his teammates where TheBoyBlunder (TBB), DarqFeonix (and the briefly CBob, who was good earlier) and hydramate Rokk Krinn.

This was the game we kept Jack around because he was so good at lynching town

And you guys have the Welcome to Night Vale somewhere on your website. I was Mafia there too.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:43 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:37 am is it possible they're both bad? Jackofhearts2005

I don't see any reason to think they couldn't be w/w but I also don't see any obvious links.

If I had to pick out the mafia right now ftw, I'd probably put them both on it. Only one gets lynched today and I badly want to avoid a mislynch.

see the problem is the mafia is an uncracked shell rn. Jay has been brazen as hell with his gameplay which means he feels secure, he and Simon were removed from the poll adding an extra layer of safety.

Would he be acting so brazen if two of his teammates were already in the cross-hairs like Wilgy and Tony? Am I thinking about this too hard?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:43 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:37 am is it possible they're both bad? Jackofhearts2005

I don't see any reason to think they couldn't be w/w but I also don't see any obvious links.

If I had to pick out the mafia right now ftw, I'd probably put them both on it. Only one gets lynched today and I badly want to avoid a mislynch.

I don’t like how you keep presenting this as a dichotomy when there are literally fourteen others who could be lynched. It feels like a mid game domineering mafia Jack move.

[mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention] can you elaborate on your jack read?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:31 am

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:50 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:17 pm @lapluie @Glorfindel @Marmot @Long Con @nutella @Quin @Kylemii

You are the players I am relatively sure are not mafia. I strongly think we should lynch Tony or Wilgy today.

Please advise.

More likely to vote Tony over Wilgy. Wanna throw me a case on each? I've got no read on Tony and reading civ on Wilgy.

Tony has stated/implied/stated he believes multiple things that it would hurt the townies to believe:
1) Lynching Simon is a bad idea even if he is mafia
2) Simon is likely town
3) Dunya stopped a kill by blocking Nutella
4) Nutella's ISO is so obviously bad that it is self evident and no posts are needed to show this
5) The town has around 3 mislynch chances

I’ll bite.

1) This still would be true.
2) Never said this. Did imply it once and decided against it half an hour later. Wishy washy? Maybe.
3) How does it hurt the town to think this?
4) Standing by this one. I don’t think you finished the ISO. And I did go through at least one post.
5) I’ll stand by this one. It’s cause I’m more optimistic than you. It’s definitely 2-3.

I’m generally willing to defer to your advanced mafia knowledge, but I’m not sure you’re right on these. Moreover, I’m concerned that you think I’m scummy because I disagree with you on some things.

And you’ve got the self perpetuating

TSP’s argument is weak
Therefore
TSP is mafia
Therefore
TSP isn’t to be believed
Therefore
TSP’s argument is weak

Which is fine but not what I’d expect from you.

Midgame town Jack listens and provides helpful insight
Midgame mafia Jack leads and stirs discussion

I’m seeing more of the latter in the last few hours.

@linki I was kinda town reading Jack. I’m now not. But it might be because he disagrees with me and wants to lynch me so I don’t want to pounce to early.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:50 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:41 am Here's a baddie Tony in another game if anyone cares.

http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/search.ph ... id=5080122

For reference, his teammates where TheBoyBlunder (TBB), DarqFeonix (and the briefly CBob, who was good earlier) and hydramate Rokk Krinn.

This was the game we kept Jack around because he was so good at lynching town

And you guys have the Welcome to Night Vale somewhere on your website. I was Mafia there too.

Jokes on you. I got you killed twice.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:51 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:43 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:37 am is it possible they're both bad? Jackofhearts2005

I don't see any reason to think they couldn't be w/w but I also don't see any obvious links.

If I had to pick out the mafia right now ftw, I'd probably put them both on it. Only one gets lynched today and I badly want to avoid a mislynch.

see the problem is the mafia is an uncracked shell rn. Jay has been brazen as hell with his gameplay which means he feels secure, he and Simon were removed from the poll adding an extra layer of safety.

Would he be acting so brazen if two of his teammates were already in the cross-hairs like Wilgy and Tony? Am I thinking about this too hard?

Tony suspicion didn't start until today, really. Also, as Jsy pointed out, WIFOM in Mountains? I did a poor job of locating Jimmy's teammates.

And don't even get me started on my 5 null reads on Made, Eloh, Dave, Nova and Dom. There could be 1-3 mafia there and its really difficult to know.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:54 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:43 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:37 am is it possible they're both bad? Jackofhearts2005

I don't see any reason to think they couldn't be w/w but I also don't see any obvious links.

If I had to pick out the mafia right now ftw, I'd probably put them both on it. Only one gets lynched today and I badly want to avoid a mislynch.

I don’t like how you keep presenting this as a dichotomy when there are literally fourteen others who could be lynched. It feels like a mid game domineering mafia Jack move.

So put forth a case, bro.

You still haven't even made a Nutella one.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:09 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:50 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:41 am Here's a baddie Tony in another game if anyone cares.

http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/search.ph ... id=5080122

For reference, his teammates where TheBoyBlunder (TBB), DarqFeonix (and the briefly CBob, who was good earlier) and hydramate Rokk Krinn.

This was the game we kept Jack around because he was so good at lynching town

And you guys have the Welcome to Night Vale somewhere on your website. I was Mafia there too.

Jokes on you. I got you killed twice.

I misdirected you into misdirecting a kill onto us. And then we lost a lynch coin toss. And then you misdirected me into a PGO or something.

Literally your argument is weak because you forgot to make it, not because of some circular blahdyblah.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:17 pm @lapluie @Glorfindel @Marmot @Long Con @nutella @Quin @Kylemii

You are the players I am relatively sure are not mafia. I strongly think we should lynch Tony or Wilgy today.

Please advise.

I'm down to lynch tony.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:16 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:09 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:50 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:41 am Here's a baddie Tony in another game if anyone cares.

http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/search.ph ... id=5080122

For reference, his teammates where TheBoyBlunder (TBB), DarqFeonix (and the briefly CBob, who was good earlier) and hydramate Rokk Krinn.

This was the game we kept Jack around because he was so good at lynching town

And you guys have the Welcome to Night Vale somewhere on your website. I was Mafia there too.

Jokes on you. I got you killed twice.

I misdirected you into misdirecting a kill onto us. And then we lost a lynch coin toss. And then you misdirected me into a PGO or something.

The first one was a total accident. I was aiming the lightning rod at your teammate, who misdirected me into you, who caused me to misdirect your other scummate kill into you.

The second one was me misdirecting you into Link, who nexused your kill into yourself, which was not even a little bit an accident.

Quite frankly, I dont really trust anyone other than nutella, Kyle, Jack & glorf..maybe quin
But the rest are my top suspects
Made is just voting following speed.
Drwildgy? ? Wyd????
Tony, only a mafia would say "don't lynch me you need me "

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:20 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:16 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:09 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:50 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:41 am Here's a baddie Tony in another game if anyone cares.

http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/search.ph ... id=5080122

For reference, his teammates where TheBoyBlunder (TBB), DarqFeonix (and the briefly CBob, who was good earlier) and hydramate Rokk Krinn.

This was the game we kept Jack around because he was so good at lynching town

And you guys have the Welcome to Night Vale somewhere on your website. I was Mafia there too.

Jokes on you. I got you killed twice.

I misdirected you into misdirecting a kill onto us. And then we lost a lynch coin toss. And then you misdirected me into a PGO or something.

The first one was a total accident. I was aiming the lightning rod at your teammate, who misdirected me into you, who caused me to misdirect your other scummate kill into you.

The second one was me misdirecting you into Link, who nexused your kill into yourself, which was not even a little bit an accident.

For every absolutely stupid lynch I lead, I pulled some awesomesauce ring slinging and saved the day. Lamplighter is the best hero ever and even if I totally screw up this and every other game I play in, nothing can ever take that beautiful Hybridity win away from him.

[mention]nutella[/mention] I know you're good & want to take out mafia but I really think we should lynch Tony. His line of we shouldn't lynch him because we need him is so sketchy..why would he think if he lived another day mafia wouldnt kill him? If town really needs him mafia will kill him ofc. But that not gonna happen cus he is bad.

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] do you think tony is a good lynch today? As said about the above statement he made.

Lol wut r u doin Speedchuck?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:01 pm I've been at a party

Oh nm. Speed is drunk.

[mention]Marmot[/mention] your vote on made isn't gonna b suffice to lynch him. How about we help eachother & vote the majority of poll?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:18 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:37 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:01 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:35 am @TonyStarkPrime

Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?

@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel

Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?

I’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.

How confident are you with this outcome?

At this point, very.

Did you answer this btw? ?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:37 am

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:01 pm I've been at a party

Oh nm. Speed is drunk.

He doesn't drink, remmeber?

Okay. I’ll make a real Nutella case.

Day 1/ Night 1: Nutella has a fine day 1. Honestly, I think the metagame has a evolved to a point where bad day 1s are rare. Maybe the realms are actually ahead on the curve of discouraging day 1 lynched.

Day 2: This is where my spider sense starts tingling. She starts with some posts that establish her curse. Fine. It’s a less restrictive curse than some others, so I’d expect to see a little more from Nutella over the course of the day.

The argument is this and then a substantively similar post later changing the vote to Sig. Seems a little hollow.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:17 am I really appreciate this luxurious item I've been given that is enfranchisement, and I'm really excited to try it out, but I'm not quite sure what to do with it yet. So far I've heard of people using this product on things such as DrWilgys and TonyStarkPrimes, and from my perspective those are both decent enough choices that I might consider. Not sure I'd waste such a lovely treat on the completely absent toothed bird, but I'd be open to seeing how it might work on a Dave.

I think for now I will test out my wonderful gift on Tony. I wasn't impressed with him on day 1, and although one could argue in his favor that he has been trying to participate more recently despite the... shall we say... stark limitations of his own "gift" today, I have also noticed that one of my other suspects, speedchuck, is voting for the candidate who is currently one vote ahead of Tony. That's about as sufficient a reason as I feel I'm likely to come up with on this day of chaos. So, thanks again hosts for the beautiful shiny poll, that was really thoughtful of you and I think it'll look great on Iron Man.

Night two opens with this:

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:23 pm welp so both sig and mac were civ. :\

that sure was a stressful day phase, lol. I had it easier than some other people but it was still hard to phrase my posts. Had fun with it though. My curse was to "act like I had received a gift" (a reference to the Holiday Goodie Exchange which I ran this year).

I can’t put my finger on exactly what’s wrong but I think it’s the apologetic tone. That’s something I’ve always considered to be a common mafia tell, could be a Nut thing. Her Day 3 starts strong with a few posts that give me a slight nudge each way.

The only one that sticks out is this one

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:59 pm Nothing rabbit says is worth taking seriously. Especially if he's unfamiliar with Jay as a player.

But I think / hope it’s a joke.

Day three on a more macro level involves a few posts on Dunya and a lengthy post on Speedchuck. Seeing as how she couldn’t vote we don’t know where she’d actually go, but if those were the directions Maf wanted to push it seems a little sketchy. And then night three opens with this

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:56 am Had I not been so unjustly disenfranchised, I would have tried to save dunya and lynch Simon. I agreed with Jay that speedchuck was the better option, but since he didn't get enough votes and it came down to a near-tie I'd probably have gone Simon. I must admit I did have some doubts about dunya for a bit when the wagon was picking up, but her pleads when it came down to the wire sounded sincere.

I haven't done any in-depth analysis but off the top of my head Jack, Kyle, Lap, and Rabbit come out of this looking pretty good, and Eloh, Quin, LC, and Speed come out looking not-so-good. Jack and Rabbit especially (and Mac but he's dead) did some solid confident hunting work both before and after the result there, and I'm inclined to follow their intuitions. I can't decide how I feel about Jay but I suppose I could see the tinfoil that he's mafia with Simon and Speed. Geez being in two concurrent games with several of the same players is mentally exhausting, I'm trying not to conflate too much meta from Fiddler but I have so many confusing tinfoily wifomy thoughts about Jay in both games lol. It's been hard to keep track but I definitely have a more traditionally civ vibe from him in this game compared to that one, but compared to previous games where he was supatown it's been a bit on the weaker side.

Which is super super mafia. I mentioned apologetic tone earlier. That first paragraph is full of it and more. And it literally doesn’t make Town sense. I can see town giving a vote choice like this late in the day to stick the flag in the sand but there’s no reason for a townie to ever pontificate so much after. Day 4 has been pretty unsubstantial outside of the classic “No you” defense. So that’s where we are. I want to elaborate on the Dunya posts that would suggest she has something outside of the first one but I also need sleep to live.

lapluie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:42 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:18 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:37 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:01 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:35 am @TonyStarkPrime

Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?

@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel

Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?

I’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.

How confident are you with this outcome?

At this point, very.

Did you answer this btw? ?

I think I did.

Also to clarify “I think you need me” - I don’t think town’s chances are good with a mislynch anywhere. But pulling that out as your “clearly mafia” statement is probably stronger than most of the other arguments so far.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:18 am Literally your argument is weak because you forgot to make it, not because of some circular blahdyblah.

This is true.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:17 pm @lapluie @Glorfindel @Marmot @Long Con @nutella @Quin @Kylemii

You are the players I am relatively sure are not mafia. I strongly think we should lynch Tony or Wilgy today.

Please advise.

I'm cool with either of those, though I am still curious how you're feeling about speedchuck atm. Moving vote to Tony.

lapluie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:26 am @nutella I know you're good & want to take out mafia but I really think we should lynch Tony. His line of we shouldn't lynch him because we need him is so sketchy..why would he think if he lived another day mafia wouldnt kill him? If town really needs him mafia will kill him ofc. But that not gonna happen cus he is bad.

Agreed.

I'm waffling on Speedchuck. He seems bad but he generally does what I want him to do and seems to be hunting (or faking it), which seems good.

Based on previous experience with Speedchuck, this leads me to believe we are in a mafia game together.

Gth bad but he will probably be the last mafia member I vote for if that makes sense.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:47 am Okay. I’ll make a real Nutella case.

Day 1/ Night 1: Nutella has a fine day 1. Honestly, I think the metagame has a evolved to a point where bad day 1s are rare. Maybe the realms are actually ahead on the curve of discouraging day 1 lynched.

Day 2: This is where my spider sense starts tingling. She starts with some posts that establish her curse. Fine. It’s a less restrictive curse than some others, so I’d expect to see a little more from Nutella over the course of the day.

The argument is this and then a substantively similar post later changing the vote to Sig. Seems a little hollow.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:17 am I really appreciate this luxurious item I've been given that is enfranchisement, and I'm really excited to try it out, but I'm not quite sure what to do with it yet. So far I've heard of people using this product on things such as DrWilgys and TonyStarkPrimes, and from my perspective those are both decent enough choices that I might consider. Not sure I'd waste such a lovely treat on the completely absent toothed bird, but I'd be open to seeing how it might work on a Dave.

I think for now I will test out my wonderful gift on Tony. I wasn't impressed with him on day 1, and although one could argue in his favor that he has been trying to participate more recently despite the... shall we say... stark limitations of his own "gift" today, I have also noticed that one of my other suspects, speedchuck, is voting for the candidate who is currently one vote ahead of Tony. That's about as sufficient a reason as I feel I'm likely to come up with on this day of chaos. So, thanks again hosts for the beautiful shiny poll, that was really thoughtful of you and I think it'll look great on Iron Man.

...I'm not sure what your point is here? Explain what you find suspicious about this post and I'll answer. As for my sig vote, I legitimately thought dunya's case was a good one. And you say you expected more from me on the curse day but I think I contributed a good amount.

Night two opens with this:

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:23 pm welp so both sig and mac were civ. :\

that sure was a stressful day phase, lol. I had it easier than some other people but it was still hard to phrase my posts. Had fun with it though. My curse was to "act like I had received a gift" (a reference to the Holiday Goodie Exchange which I ran this year).

I can’t put my finger on exactly what’s wrong but I think it’s the apologetic tone. That’s something I’ve always considered to be a common mafia tell, could be a Nut thing. Her Day 3 starts strong with a few posts that give me a slight nudge each way.

The only one that sticks out is this one

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:59 pm Nothing rabbit says is worth taking seriously. Especially if he's unfamiliar with Jay as a player.

But I think / hope it’s a joke.

Sort of a joke, sort of serious. I thought that rabbit was being ridiculous insisting Jay was bad for very little reasoning when he's never played with Jay before and doesn't know his meta/reputation, and he hadn't caught up on the thread either iirc so I wasn't putting much stock in his reads in general.

Day three on a more macro level involves a few posts on Dunya and a lengthy post on Speedchuck. Seeing as how she couldn’t vote we don’t know where she’d actually go, but if those were the directions Maf wanted to push it seems a little sketchy. And then night three opens with this

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:56 am Had I not been so unjustly disenfranchised, I would have tried to save dunya and lynch Simon. I agreed with Jay that speedchuck was the better option, but since he didn't get enough votes and it came down to a near-tie I'd probably have gone Simon. I must admit I did have some doubts about dunya for a bit when the wagon was picking up, but her pleads when it came down to the wire sounded sincere.

I haven't done any in-depth analysis but off the top of my head Jack, Kyle, Lap, and Rabbit come out of this looking pretty good, and Eloh, Quin, LC, and Speed come out looking not-so-good. Jack and Rabbit especially (and Mac but he's dead) did some solid confident hunting work both before and after the result there, and I'm inclined to follow their intuitions. I can't decide how I feel about Jay but I suppose I could see the tinfoil that he's mafia with Simon and Speed. Geez being in two concurrent games with several of the same players is mentally exhausting, I'm trying not to conflate too much meta from Fiddler but I have so many confusing tinfoily wifomy thoughts about Jay in both games lol. It's been hard to keep track but I definitely have a more traditionally civ vibe from him in this game compared to that one, but compared to previous games where he was supatown it's been a bit on the weaker side.

Which is super super mafia. I mentioned apologetic tone earlier. That first paragraph is full of it and more. And it literally doesn’t make Town sense. I can see town giving a vote choice like this late in the day to stick the flag in the sand but there’s no reason for a townie to ever pontificate so much after. Day 4 has been pretty unsubstantial outside of the classic “No you” defense. So that’s where we are. I want to elaborate on the Dunya posts that would suggest she has something outside of the first one but I also need sleep to live.

"Apologetic tone" is not much of an argument. Pretty common to feel regret after a mislynch. I genuinely wished the EOD had gone differently and expressed as much.

Also where have I "no you"ed? I sometimes happen to suspect players who suspect me, but for real reasons. I don't do "no you."

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:17 am I find myself following/agreeing with Kyle's thoughts the most here. Whatever Marmot is doing here, it seems antitown.

I'm not antitown though. I'm just antimafia...

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:28 am

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:09 amI was trying to draw your attention to Marmot immediately claiming Jester in the burglary today. He didn't do that for civilian reasons. He said he'd have done it regardless of whether he rolled Jester or not. I can follow your train of thought if the underlined if what you're concerned about.

though i haven't even read outside of this quote pyramid so what do i know

the situations are different. In jester games there's no harm in claiming jester because the only person who doesn't mind being seen as possibly being the jester is the actual jester.

marmot countered strongly-suspectsd-to-be-a-mafia-member Jay's strongly implied claim of being Kano by implying he owned that role. the civilian utility for a fake indie counterclaim would be fairly limited, and would really just be a more risky way to get across the point of "doubt it"

Was Jay really that strongly suspected? I think that's an exaggeration.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:20 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:35 pm

Made wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:53 am

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:42 am RIP rabbit.

Not sure what to make of all this indie-claiming stuff but it feels like a distraction from scumhunting. Kano needs civs to die so I don't like it.

I disagree. I feel like indie hunting isn't unimportant. knowing who the indies are can help us figure out why people make the opinions they are making, and POE that issh

that said, what do we have on indie-claimy stuffs?

Linki- Dunya's in the game now? who did she sub in for, did she die?
What makes you so sure that simon is bad?
Have we lynched mafia yet?

I want opinions on this post, specifically the four questions Made asked when he came back from a few days absence.

@Kylemii @Marmot

Let me look into this. Hold on.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:09 am I'm waffling on Speedchuck. He seems bad but he generally does what I want him to do and seems to be hunting (or faking it), which seems good.

Based on previous experience with Speedchuck, this leads me to believe we are in a mafia game together.

lol, fair. He has a habit of always looking the same... I just have a feeling I can't shake, and the points against him that I posted on day 3 felt pretty strong. He's been hanging back today and I haven't seen enough from him but that mostly just makes me more wary. I think at the moment I'm more confident in a tony or wilgy lynch but would definitely entertain a speed lynch if others are willing.

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:18 am

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:20 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:35 pm

Made wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:53 am

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:42 am RIP rabbit.

Not sure what to make of all this indie-claiming stuff but it feels like a distraction from scumhunting. Kano needs civs to die so I don't like it.

I disagree. I feel like indie hunting isn't unimportant. knowing who the indies are can help us figure out why people make the opinions they are making, and POE that issh

that said, what do we have on indie-claimy stuffs?

Linki- Dunya's in the game now? who did she sub in for, did she die?
What makes you so sure that simon is bad?
Have we lynched mafia yet?

I want opinions on this post, specifically the four questions Made asked when he came back from a few days absence.

@Kylemii @Marmot

Let me look into this. Hold on.

Never mind.

Maybe he's interested in finding the answers?
Maybe he's got a strange knowledge of what's going on in this game to ask such specific but also easy questions?

Your guess is as good as mine. I've seen Made scumslip from asking simple questions in thread before, but I don't think anything like that is happening here.

Why'd you want my opinion specifically?