The Syndicate

i don't understand how anyone is scumreading chopchop after he outright posted the message he sent spacedaisy lol
scum just would not do that

ChopChop wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:20 pm Do you TR SPF Sloon?

For now I'll say yes.
Why does that matter right now?

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:22 pm i don't understand how anyone is scumreading chopchop after he outright posted the message he sent spacedaisy lol
scum just would not do that

Why not?

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:17 pm

ChopChop wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:10 pm @Alison
Let me ask you this.

If you sent someone a message then accidentally forgot to re-mention someone on it and then the person messaged called you out on it because the person you didn’t re-mention happened to die then says the person that sent it is a wolf. How would you have responded?

I would not say anything and pretend to be a vanilla town so I don't get misexed, and confess to my mistake postgame/when I am forcibly revealed as the messenger.

Yeah well that’s what I do as scum.

Just because my reads are low effort doesn't make them bogus Sloonei

As Town IDRC if I look bad.
As Mafia I do.

perhaps the urist/chopchop pairing is a little too obvious to be correct

still feels weird though

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:21 pm

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:19 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:17 pm

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:17 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:14 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:10 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:09 pm i think that urist is scum

Why, and which team?

see the below posts:

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:18 pm still think rej is the better execute.
it's possible he is the enclave doctor after all

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:12 pm here's a spicy take

[VOTE: alison] aubergine

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:41 am ngl i'm slowly buying into the theory that chopchop and spacedaisy are both wolves

none of his reads or his takes today feel authentic or soulful or like theyre coming from the thought process of someone who is carefully evaluating the game. his push on alison that he shortly dropped after is weird. his belief that chopchop/space are both scum that he then immediately dropped in favor of defending chop is weird. his reasoning for wanting to chop rej over chopchop is weird. his energy today compared to d2 is dramatically different, and not in a way that i particularly like. he feels somewhat deflated and like he doesn't know where to take his solving or how to position himself in the thread

he would probably be on whatever team chopchop is on, since he's been soft defending him for a while now

why are you hardtunneling me

i'm vengeful, like batman

do you want me to actually engage you this game
like would that be worth my time to do or are you just going to take it and say "nah he's still prob maf"

if you engage with me then i will listen to you

i think you should do what's gonna help you solve the game the most

it would 100% be solely for your benefit, that's why i ask.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:22 pm Just because my reads are low effort doesn't make them bogus Sloonei

Yes it does.

Sorry if I missed it Urist, but what’s your read on Tony?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:18 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:17 pm if chop's daniel then luke knows that he's daniel and luke could just message someone saying as such right

There's a third messenger role in one of the cyan factions.

Also we don't know for sure that Luke is actually in the game.

don't know anything for sure in this post apocalyptic hellscape

sorry for swearing

I do not understand any of the things ChopChop has done from Night 1 until now, regardless of his alignment.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:23 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:22 pm Just because my reads are low effort doesn't make them bogus Sloonei

Yes it does.

No

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:23 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:21 pm

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:19 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:17 pm

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:17 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:14 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:10 pm

Why, and which team?

see the below posts:

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:18 pm still think rej is the better execute.
it's possible he is the enclave doctor after all

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:12 pm here's a spicy take

[VOTE: alison] aubergine

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:41 am ngl i'm slowly buying into the theory that chopchop and spacedaisy are both wolves

none of his reads or his takes today feel authentic or soulful or like theyre coming from the thought process of someone who is carefully evaluating the game. his push on alison that he shortly dropped after is weird. his belief that chopchop/space are both scum that he then immediately dropped in favor of defending chop is weird. his reasoning for wanting to chop rej over chopchop is weird. his energy today compared to d2 is dramatically different, and not in a way that i particularly like. he feels somewhat deflated and like he doesn't know where to take his solving or how to position himself in the thread

he would probably be on whatever team chopchop is on, since he's been soft defending him for a while now

why are you hardtunneling me

i'm vengeful, like batman

do you want me to actually engage you this game
like would that be worth my time to do or are you just going to take it and say "nah he's still prob maf"

if you engage with me then i will listen to you

i think you should do what's gonna help you solve the game the most

it would 100% be solely for your benefit, that's why i ask.

then sure. i don't need you to engage with me specifically but ive been looking to hear the reasoning behind your reads and your progressions for most of the game

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:22 pm

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:22 pm i don't understand how anyone is scumreading chopchop after he outright posted the message he sent spacedaisy lol
scum just would not do that

Why not?

it allows us to see the "slip". without seeing the exact text, we can only go on what spacedaisy said about how egregious the slip was. and she was town-reading chopchop.
i think if chop was mafia he could simply give some summary that makes him look good, and i doubt daisy would complain.

I think Mac has been reasonably clear about the depth of his reads, he's specified they're first post reads, he's read 2% of the game, etc.

Sloonei back to maf

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:25 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:22 pm

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:22 pm i don't understand how anyone is scumreading chopchop after he outright posted the message he sent spacedaisy lol
scum just would not do that

Why not?

it allows us to see the "slip". without seeing the exact text, we can only go on what spacedaisy said about how egregious the slip was. and she was town-reading chopchop.
i think if chop was mafia he could simply give some summary that makes him look good, and i doubt daisy would complain.

I do not see it this way. I don't think revealing the message changes a whole lot about my perception of the event. It could be done out of an attempt at transparency on chop's part, or it could just be a nervous reaction, or he thought Daisy was gonna do it first. I think "giving a summary" would be riskier because then he runs the risk of Daisy calling him out and reversing her town stance on him.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:27 pm I think Mac has been reasonably clear about the depth of his reads, he's specified they're first post reads, he's read 2% of the game, etc.

Yes I know. After he tried to call you Enclave and people pointed out that that's basically a mechanical impossibility. Prior to then he'd given no direct indication that they were surface-level-at-best reads.

I've caught more scum with baseless reads than ones with depth

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:29 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:27 pm I think Mac has been reasonably clear about the depth of his reads, he's specified they're first post reads, he's read 2% of the game, etc.

Yes I know. After he tried to call you Enclave and people pointed out that that's basically a mechanical impossibility. Prior to then he'd given no direct indication that they were surface-level-at-best reads.

I'm tinfoiling you again because of ridiculous nitpicks like this

KZA wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:30 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:29 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:27 pm I think Mac has been reasonably clear about the depth of his reads, he's specified they're first post reads, he's read 2% of the game, etc.

Yes I know. After he tried to call you Enclave and people pointed out that that's basically a mechanical impossibility. Prior to then he'd given no direct indication that they were surface-level-at-best reads.

I'm tinfoiling you again because of ridiculous nitpicks like this

Awesome.

KZA wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:30 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:29 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:27 pm I think Mac has been reasonably clear about the depth of his reads, he's specified they're first post reads, he's read 2% of the game, etc.

Yes I know. After he tried to call you Enclave and people pointed out that that's basically a mechanical impossibility. Prior to then he'd given no direct indication that they were surface-level-at-best reads.

I'm tinfoiling you again because of ridiculous nitpicks like this

Towan

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:25 pm then sure. i don't need you to engage with me specifically but ive been looking to hear the reasoning behind your reads and your progressions for most of the game

i have to go make dinner, but tonight i will go over some stuff with you.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:28 pm

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:25 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:22 pm

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:22 pm i don't understand how anyone is scumreading chopchop after he outright posted the message he sent spacedaisy lol
scum just would not do that

Why not?

it allows us to see the "slip". without seeing the exact text, we can only go on what spacedaisy said about how egregious the slip was. and she was town-reading chopchop.
i think if chop was mafia he could simply give some summary that makes him look good, and i doubt daisy would complain.

I do not see it this way. I don't think revealing the message changes a whole lot about my perception of the event. It could be done out of an attempt at transparency on chop's part, or it could just be a nervous reaction, or he thought Daisy was gonna do it first. I think "giving a summary" would be riskier because then he runs the risk of Daisy calling him out and reversing her town stance on him.

i'll admit that those are possibilities. i think the most likely scenario though is that chopchop is town who screwed up and is trying to clear the air. it's not like he's in "full defense" mode either, he's still contributing.

Let's assume ChopChop is mafia. How do his teammate's respond to this situation?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:41 pm Let's assume ChopChop is mafia. How do his teammate's respond to this situation?

avoid committing one way or the other and try to get on the wagon early if it looks like he's going down

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:41 pm Let's assume ChopChop is mafia. How do his teammate's respond to this situation?

If I were Chop's teammate I would hard bus and I expect his teammates to do so as well. Which is why I said I don't think we'll get any info from a Chop wagon.

Every decision you make in a mafia game is to increase the probability of achieving your win condition. You save scum teammates because they can help you reach parity, or they have useful abilities, or they have good thread control/presence, or some combination of the three. ChopChop will never help a mafia team reach parity because he will never survive to the point where parity is being counted. We know that if he's scum he doesn't have exciting abilities. And he is so widely distrusted that he has no thread influence.

Therefore you hard bus.

Does anybody think Poison is town?

I'm personally leaning on the not-town side of things. It feels a bit off trying to read them. Like maybe performative but I think that's the wrong word to use.

I am comfortable waiting for Poison's alignment to clarify itself in future days. Poison is the sort of player that can naturally self-resolve.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:41 pm Let's assume ChopChop is mafia. How do his teammate's respond to this situation?

I basically do what I always do here.

And hide behind "well his real account name is XXXXX, here are a few examples of his old playstyle. He has been changing his meta recently so can you really blame me for getting it wrong and hard-defending him?" Or something.

As far as who else actually does anything about it if they're teammates with him I don't know since I hadn't even really considered that.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:07 pm I GTH read KZA as town. "I should be receiving more scrutiny" and "I want everyone to give GTH reads on me" are lines that townies say when they're struggling to connect with the game and want some solid takes to sink their teeth into. UTR mafia just keeps trundling on UTR. I wouldn't bet my life savings on it but I'm ok with KZA for now.

ChopChop asked multiple times for other people to read them, which is the primary reason I ended up with a scumread there.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:54 pm Every decision you make in a mafia game is to increase the probability of achieving your win condition. You save scum teammates because they can help you reach parity, or they have useful abilities, or they have good thread control/presence, or some combination of the three. ChopChop will never help a mafia team reach parity because he will never survive to the point where parity is being counted. We know that if he's scum he doesn't have exciting abilities. And he is so widely distrusted that he has no thread influence.

Therefore you hard bus.

But they might expect us to expect them to hard bus.

The inverse of this is how do the Enclave members react if Chop is town. I imagine they’d be on board with his wagon, but they might be a little slower/not at the forefront.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:58 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:54 pm Every decision you make in a mafia game is to increase the probability of achieving your win condition. You save scum teammates because they can help you reach parity, or they have useful abilities, or they have good thread control/presence, or some combination of the three. ChopChop will never help a mafia team reach parity because he will never survive to the point where parity is being counted. We know that if he's scum he doesn't have exciting abilities. And he is so widely distrusted that he has no thread influence.

Therefore you hard bus.

But they might expect us to expect them to hard bus.

The level 1 play is to hard bus because that's the logical thing to do. The level 2 play is to not hard bus because scum would hard bus.

You don't give anyone any towncred for bussing because it's the level 1 play. You don't give anyone any towncred for defending because it's the level 2 play. In fact, it is very difficult to get reliable information from wagonomics on a player as outed as ChopChop, which is why I said earlier we don't get much info from the ChopChop exe. All you can do is examine the reasons and try to figure out if they're sincere in their ChopChop beliefs or doing it because it's the level 1/2 play.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 7:00 pm The inverse of this is how do the Enclave members react if Chop is town. I imagine they’d be on board with his wagon, but they might be a little slower/not at the forefront.

I think the right play is usually to lead the charge. Nobody can fault you for being wrong on Chop, there will almost certainly be other townies leading it alongside you, and you don't get accused of having TMI about his alignment later.

That said I don't think scum players play optimally so not everyone will do this. If Chop is town then I would look out for actual TMI.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:58 pm ChopChop asked multiple times for other people to read them, which is the primary reason I ended up with a scumread there.

That's a reasonable point tbh

But seriously that guy is frustrated from misexecutions. He had a series of games on my homesite IIRC where he was executed fairly early into the game as town and so he's been trying to adjust himself in the hopes of not being misexecuted.

His reads aren't all that great though since sometimes they're formed out of suggestion from his own paranoia and self-consciousness.

That leads to me another thing: He really seemed to like these emoticons once he found them (He has never really used emotes before) in this game. If he's so self-conscious in a scummy way as to ask for reads on him, why be so loose with this new meta and his thoughts here at times that could, for all they know, just get them executed fairly quickly?

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 7:04 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:58 pm ChopChop asked multiple times for other people to read them, which is the primary reason I ended up with a scumread there.

That's a reasonable point tbh

But seriously that guy is frustrated from misexecutions. He had a series of games on my homesite IIRC where he was executed fairly early into the game as town and so he's been trying to adjust himself in the hopes of not being misexecuted.

His reads aren't all that great though since sometimes they're formed out of suggestion from his own paranoia and self-consciousness.

That leads to me another thing: He really seemed to like these emoticons once he found them (He has never really used emotes before) in this game. If he's so self-conscious in a scummy way as to ask for reads on him, why be so loose with this new meta and his thoughts here at times that could, for all they know, just get them executed fairly quickly?

He doesn't seem all that tilted to me.

I think he's tilted if he's closer to the edge though. Not now.

I mean, he has used that energy of frustration to try and be something new.

Trying to figure out when exactly he gets titlted is probably not a good basis for a read on him atm anyways, since people (generally) react differently to stress.

You could say he gets tilted under X amount of pressure and you could also argue at the same time you would be in the ballpark of being right.

Except if you're on the wrong side of the ballpark, then you've made a wrong read on them on the basis of not being frustrated or being too frustrated. Etc. Seems tot flimsy to me, and honestly I just see some of his motivations in this newer playstyle of his that makes me think he's town. He has more energy to it than I think he would have if he were scum.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:09 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:50 am tl;dr for me here: am I partnered with Esooa and did a big fake venom thing with her?

Or am I on the other bad team because Urist somehow carries some weight with his weird theories?

I'm confused about this post. What does Urist have to do with you and weird theories?

In reality: absolutely nothing. And yet they are still out there...

I just do not think ChopChop is a player whose strategic decisions in this game align with what I would reasonably consider for myself as any alignment. That is to say I don't know what to expect from him or how to confidently judge his actions one way or the other. None of the things he has done are moves that I would make in his position regardless of alignment.

So I can only take him at face value. And at face value, he has claimed a role and action that could very plausibly belong to a member of one of the mafia factions. It remains possible that this is not the case, that he's just fallen accidentally and by unfortunate coincidence into a tremendous mess. But unless there is something unforeseen out there that we can use to definitively clear him, I will not be able to keep myself from asking if it really is just that easy for as long as ChopChop remains in this game.

What is the base probability that a townie forgets to list the name of someone on a wagon they are investigating, and that person just so happens to be the scum nightkill?

Is it 1 in 10? 1 in 50? 1 in 100?

Because even if you buy that he wouldn't out like this as scum, he wouldn't do X or Y, you still have to contend with that rock bottom base probability. No matter what.

I don't think that probability is high enough for me to want to keep Chop alive. And as mentioned, I don't want them in a critical scenario like FX.

the larger problem for me is that i dont find chop towny at all, independent of his claim

ChopChop wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:15 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:16 pm Chop seems like more of a sure thing to me but I think rej is a lot higher than rand mafia so

Hey Nanook, I must have missed your response towards my previous question I gave you, can you re-ping me on it?


Also, I’ve played Video Mafia with you before.
You laughed at me.

I don’t think I saw the question

That’s not helpful I laugh at everyone!

The only sc2 person I can think of that I’ve played video mafia with is naz

imo if you're going to be the alt account of some other person who apparently has a ton of relevant meta and is known to other players in the game then you should just reveal who your main is