The Syndicate

I don't think Sloonei is an even. Like.... He just put a fuckload of energy into analysis on me and potential baddie partners of mine. if he were a baddie then he just would spend the time on that. Like i guess it would be a solid way of seeming like he's doing work but sloonei's been so absent, him making a huge case thing whatever about partners that he knows is actually useless wouldn't be necessary for maintaining any sort of facade. I think he is a civ who legitimately believes I'm bad. No mafia member would go through that amount of effort knowing that it was meaningless.

I think Epignosis is probably clear too based on his actions leading to the lynch of Nutella and Long Con. I haven't actually read this part yet, I guess i've just been kinda assuming it's true.

mmm if Scotty or Epignosis are mafia then that means that categorically at least one of the remaining Cerberus 1.0 must be mafia to account for Scotty's murder, clearing all remaining pikachu1.0s

If spacedaisy or sloonei are mafia then the 4th member could be pretty much anyone, i think?

how come only quin gets to have a dad :/

Welp.

If Kyle isn’t bad- which at this point I think he is- then we’ve got some problems, because I don’t feel like going after any of the remaining Pika2’s. I kinda want to just gun for Boomslang, which is annoying since he still has 2 lives. I still feel he is Even regardless of his affiliation with Kyle.

Is there any possibility niju, Jack, svs, or DH was even?

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:48 pm Is there any possibility niju, Jack, svs, or DH was even?

Um, do you think there is any possibility that SVS is Even?

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:01 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:48 pm Is there any possibility niju, Jack, svs, or DH was even?

Um, do you think there is any possibility that SVS is Even?

Or nijuu, for that matter.

Like is this an actual thought out question?

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:02 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:01 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:48 pm Is there any possibility niju, Jack, svs, or DH was even?

Um, do you think there is any possibility that SVS is Even?

Or nijuu, for that matter.

Like is this an actual thought out question?

I don't really think SVS was even.

I don't know a lot about nijuu, and almost nothing about Jack. I remember DH being LC-friendly.

What is the purpose of figuring out if dead people are bad? Can you lynch any of them?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:12 pm What is the purpose of figuring out if dead people are bad? Can you lynch any of them?

It might help PoE-wise.

Alternatively, we could continue sitting around rehashing the same things we've been saying for the past 3 or 4 days.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:18 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:12 pm What is the purpose of figuring out if dead people are bad? Can you lynch any of them?

It might help PoE-wise.

Alternatively, we could continue sitting around rehashing the same things we've been saying for the past 3 or 4 days.

It's been working out just fine so far.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:11 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:02 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:01 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:48 pm Is there any possibility niju, Jack, svs, or DH was even?

Um, do you think there is any possibility that SVS is Even?

Or nijuu, for that matter.

Like is this an actual thought out question?

I don't really think SVS was even.

I don't know a lot about nijuu, and almost nothing about Jack. I remember DH being LC-friendly.

SVS most definitely revealed Speedchuck on D7. For someone that was widely suspected as being Even, that would be a shitty move on an Even-aligned SVS if Speedchuck were anything but civ. Maaaaybe if she were super sure speed was Strex, but even then..naw. She was not even.

And nijuu? If you recall, nijuu’s civ role was revealed on D12. It’s not a far cry to suppose that Sloonei 1.0 copied SVS’ power and at some point used it on nijuu D12. Which would even further explain why he was so adamant that he didn’t get lynched D15...so maybe he could continually use a literal cop power every other day.

Since there were four Strex, I believe there is likely to be a 4th Even, unless LC used his ability on someone and their death reveal was false. I don't see any reason to believe that though. Even so, we lynch Kyle and we will know for sure if we have another out there or not.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:58 pm Since there were four Strex, I believe there is likely to be a 4th Even, unless LC used his ability on someone and their death reveal was false. I don't see any reason to believe that though. Even so, we lynch Kyle and we will know for sure if we have another out there or not.

I don't see how LC using his role changes the makeup of his team.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:58 pmEven so, we lynch Kyle and we will know for sure if we have another out there or not.

you definitely won't

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:52 am

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:58 pmEven so, we lynch Kyle and we will know for sure if we have another out there or not.

you definitely won't

well I guess technically you will lol

Kylemii:

Who killed sprityo Night 8?

Who killed Scotty Night 2?

You have to answer those questions to get me to move my vote.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:59 am Kylemii:

Who killed sprityo Night 8?

Who killed Scotty Night 2?

You have to answer those questions to get me to move my vote.

okay first of all, I don't have to do anything, Epi. You're going to lynch me regardless, and then you will work together to figure out those two answers for yourselves, and probably succeed, because I believe in you punks. whether you lynch me or don't the result is the same.

secondly i'm already working on figuring those things out you nerd. i can't just solve an endgame on a whim, especially when one of the mafia is gauranteed to be among the hard hitters like you, spacedaisy, sloonei, or scooty, and especially when im basically working alone.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:07 pm I personally think the kill of DDL by the Evens makes me less inclined to suspect him. Was he under suspicion at that time?

To be clear, this point is one of the two things that gives me pause on my DDL case. The other is that he may have received a message from Kyle 1.0 between the time of his "blank" read and his sudden defense of Kyle.

But, to make a case for DDL being killed by the Evens as an Even: He wasn't an obvious target for a nightkill at the time of his death. He was not widely suspected at the time, but neither was he a consensus town read. He was a fringe player floating around in no-man's land, in terms of trust/suspicion. Other kills have been targeting more trusted players: see SVS last night, or niju a few nights earlier. DDL struck me as a slightly odd kill choice at the time.

Also, killing DDL has less of an impact than any other target in the game. Due to the host error early in the game, DDL was already on his second role prior to his first death. Targeting him with a nightkill makes him more vulnerable to be removed from the game outright, but it does not change his role and thus it does not really affect his position in the game.

I'll need to review the timing of the kill itself to see how it looks in full context. But it came after the POE pool was more or less narrowed down to 3, with Kyle squarely in it. So if he had only one partner at the time, I don't find it totally unreasonable to suspect that they may have conspired to get the other partner killed for credibility, especially if the discussion about that potential strategy had picked up by then.

Another possibility could be that DDL wasn't the intended kill target, but it was redirected onto him. This could be the case for any kill, though, and it wouldn't tell me anything about his alignment one way or the other.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:07 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:59 am Kylemii:

Who killed sprityo Night 8?

Who killed Scotty Night 2?

You have to answer those questions to get me to move my vote.

okay first of all, I don't have to do anything, Epi. You're going to lynch me regardless, and then you will work together to figure out those two answers for yourselves, and probably succeed, because I believe in you punks. whether you lynch me or don't the result is the same.

secondly i'm already working on figuring those things out you nerd. i can't just solve an endgame on a whim, especially when one of the mafia is gauranteed to be among the hard hitters like you, spacedaisy, sloonei, or scooty, and especially when im basically working alone.

Did I end up voting for you yesterday?

No, I did not.

All you did was ask.

Today, you can't ask. You have to do some work for my vote to move off you.

So yes, to get me to move my vote, you have to do things.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:00 pm - Dies

Does this mean some baddie thinks I look like a civ?

Took 14 days but I finally accomplished it

This was DDL's reaction to being nightkilled. Eh. I could see this as a staged response if I stare deep into the tunnel.

The day before, when we had our stunted poll, he was one of the few people to cast an actual vote for sprityo:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:13 pm [VOTE: Sprityo] aubergine

First we all agree his activity post death dropped a lot.

Second, I'm willing to policy lynch him on that bastard role claim. If he's telling the truth we at least get rid of a role that could be bad for town, so it's a win-win situation.

I love neither of these reasons. "We all agree his activity dropped" is not a strong justification. We all agree on an observable fact, sure, but that's not something that should be alignment-indicative.
And policy lynching him for maybe holding a bastard role is also weaksauce. I get that this was a bastard poll, but that's not an invitation to cast weak votes.

His real suspect this day was colonialbob, and he continued to push cbob's lynch a little bit the following day, but that was Day 15, aka the Sloonei v. Kyle showdown. DDL parked himself comfortably in the Lynch Sloonei camp that whole day.

Other than that I don't really see any strong suspects from DDL that would merit a nightkill on those grounds. He went after sig a little bit, and cast a vote for LoRab, but she was Strex.

That this kill came on Night 14 might adds to my consideration that this was a self-kill. Day 14, the day of the stunted poll, disrupted what had been a mounting campaign to lynch one of myself, Scotty, or Kyle. It's easy to see the writing on the wall for Evens there, and if there's any last-ditch move that they could pull to score some credibility for their eventual final member, they might want to go for it. There had been a little bit of mounting paranoia about the players with both lives remaining (which would have included DDL at this time), so the sacrifice of a single life might actually stave off some scrutiny and buy him time in a backwards sort of way, to say nothing of the obvious credibility that comes with being nightkilled.
It does not appear that the discussion about this as a potential strategy had picked up before DDL's death, although this was something that we discussed early on in the Cerberus thread, so the idea was at least out there.

This theory requires me to look deep into the tunnel and do some mental gymnastics, but I don't think it's impossible. Given my perception of DDL's interactions with Kyle and vice versa, I still feel like this is an angle at least worth considering. I will continue to listen to any other arguments though. I'm far from certain about this.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:18 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:07 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:59 am Kylemii:

Who killed sprityo Night 8?

Who killed Scotty Night 2?

You have to answer those questions to get me to move my vote.

okay first of all, I don't have to do anything, Epi. You're going to lynch me regardless, and then you will work together to figure out those two answers for yourselves, and probably succeed, because I believe in you punks. whether you lynch me or don't the result is the same.

secondly i'm already working on figuring those things out you nerd. i can't just solve an endgame on a whim, especially when one of the mafia is gauranteed to be among the hard hitters like you, spacedaisy, sloonei, or scooty, and especially when im basically working alone.

Did I end up voting for you yesterday?

No, I did not.

All you did was ask.

Today, you can't ask. You have to do some work for my vote to move off you.

So yes, to get me to move my vote, you have to do things.

i don't understand why you act like answering the question of "hey please solve the entire game real quick" is like some kind of simple errand like "hey can you grab a carton of milk on the way home", while you wave your single vote around as if it's some suitable reward for climbing mount everest.

and im already working on helping to answer those questions, not so you will change your vote but because those questions are nearly synonymous with asking the question "who's bad". but more importantly because i am going to die today and i want to do as much as i can to steer this game towards the right path, even if my efforts don't ever amount to much i want to make them because... well it's fun i guess.

epi, i want to ask you, regardless of my alignment, do you think this game will go in a positive direction while i'm still alive? half the tribe is so confident that im bad that they're already trying to plot out my teammates. people don't want to dig deep into the conversation of which one of SD, Epi, Scotty, or Sloonei might have killed because I'm here, and it's easier to believe I did a murder than to believe that any of y'all "supertowns" did it.

So either I get lynched today and you guys do better tomorrow or I cobble together some half assed case, all on my own, and somehow get 60% of the living players to listen to me. best case scenario? I end up miraculously being right and causing a mafia to get lynched. worst case scenario i inadvertently push things closer to the bad end and still be the focal point of half the game, again, keeping the 4 aforementioned heavy hitters from really looking into each other and making the hard choices that they need to make.

am i wrong?

Who does your gut tell you is the killer?

What are your thoughts on DDL?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:35 amWho does your gut tell you is the killer?

Based on the treatment of the case against me, Scotty. If it's not Scotty then I think it's likely SD and maybe also you? idk.

What are your thoughts on DDL?

wasn't your case was entirely based on a potential tie to me? I actually haven't spent much time or energy paying attention to things players outside of our group of five have said or done recently. i'd have to review him. do you think his behavior regarding my lynch could be indicative or opportunism

DDL was a pikachu 1.0 member so if he's mafia then his only compatible teammates are you or spacedaisy.

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:25 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:11 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:02 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:01 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:48 pm Is there any possibility niju, Jack, svs, or DH was even?

Um, do you think there is any possibility that SVS is Even?

Or nijuu, for that matter.

Like is this an actual thought out question?

I don't really think SVS was even.

I don't know a lot about nijuu, and almost nothing about Jack. I remember DH being LC-friendly.

SVS most definitely revealed Speedchuck on D7. For someone that was widely suspected as being Even, that would be a shitty move on an Even-aligned SVS if Speedchuck were anything but civ. Maaaaybe if she were super sure speed was Strex, but even then..naw. She was not even.

And nijuu? If you recall, nijuu’s civ role was revealed on D12. It’s not a far cry to suppose that Sloonei 1.0 copied SVS’ power and at some point used it on nijuu D12. Which would even further explain why he was so adamant that he didn’t get lynched D15...so maybe he could continually use a literal cop power every other day.

duh.

What about Jack/DH?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:51 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:35 amWho does your gut tell you is the killer?

Based on the treatment of the case against me, Scotty. If it's not Scotty then I think it's likely SD and maybe also you? idk.

What are your thoughts on DDL?

wasn't your case was entirely based on a potential tie to me? I actually haven't spent much time or energy paying attention to things players outside of our group of five have said or done recently. i'd have to review him. do you think his behavior regarding my lynch could be indicative or opportunism

Not necessarily, though that’s a large part of it. He does show some seemingly inconsistent behavior toward you, regardless of your alignment, He also seemed to be a passive supporter of my lynch, lending support to the paranoia of others without adding his own thoughts and such. Then there’s the matter of his Night 14 kill that intrigues me.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:54 am DDL was a pikachu 1.0 member so if he's mafia then his only compatible teammates are you or spacedaisy.

wut

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:44 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:54 am DDL was a pikachu 1.0 member so if he's mafia then his only compatible teammates are you or spacedaisy.

wut

He said DDL was a pikachu 1.0 member so if he's mafia then his only compatible teammates are you or spacedaisy.

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:24 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:44 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:54 am DDL was a pikachu 1.0 member so if he's mafia then his only compatible teammates are you or spacedaisy.

wut

He said DDL was a pikachu 1.0 member so if he's mafia then his only compatible teammates are you or spacedaisy.

HUH?

colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:07 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:25 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:11 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:02 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:01 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:48 pm Is there any possibility niju, Jack, svs, or DH was even?

Um, do you think there is any possibility that SVS is Even?

Or nijuu, for that matter.

Like is this an actual thought out question?

I don't really think SVS was even.

I don't know a lot about nijuu, and almost nothing about Jack. I remember DH being LC-friendly.

SVS most definitely revealed Speedchuck on D7. For someone that was widely suspected as being Even, that would be a shitty move on an Even-aligned SVS if Speedchuck were anything but civ. Maaaaybe if she were super sure speed was Strex, but even then..naw. She was not even.

And nijuu? If you recall, nijuu’s civ role was revealed on D12. It’s not a far cry to suppose that Sloonei 1.0 copied SVS’ power and at some point used it on nijuu D12. Which would even further explain why he was so adamant that he didn’t get lynched D15...so maybe he could continually use a literal cop power every other day.

duh.

What about Jack/DH?

Well, jack had no discernible ties to any known Evens. So he could have been, I guess.

DH is a quandary, but a couple people vouched for him. That he had 2 seemingly vanilla roles also make me think he wasn’t mafia, since this game already seems pro-civ for mafia to have vanilla roles. Unless his roles weren’t vanilla at all, but I dunno. I’m more unsure about DH’s relationships with nutella and LC since I mostly skimmed the majority of your thread. Maybe you could answer that one better than I could.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:27 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:24 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:44 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:54 am DDL was a pikachu 1.0 member so if he's mafia then his only compatible teammates are you or spacedaisy.

wut

He said DDL was a pikachu 1.0 member so if he's mafia then his only compatible teammates are you or spacedaisy.

HUH?

HE SAID DDL LIKED PIKACHUS MEMBER SO MUCH HE COMPARED MEMBERS BETWEEN YOU AND SPACEDAISY

kyle, when my neck was on the line, I became as invested as I could in finding baddies. Your strategy here seems to be unsubstantiated claims and shrugs. I think you’re bad, and you’re only putting in the bare minimum here to save yourself.

You seemed nonplussed after the lynch switch yesterday, almost like you knew it would happen, and instead of that lighting a fire under your butt, you’re trying to guilt trip the town into, like, looking elsewhere, man.

My suggestion is to do some digging in players you seem to not know anything about before we mislynch you. Because right now, comments like

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:51 amI actually haven't spent much time or energy paying attention to things players outside of our group of five have said or done recently. i'd have to review him. do you think his behavior regarding my lynch could be indicative or opportunism

Where you use vaguery to talk about a player and turn the question back towards other people make me want to triple lynch you.

After today we’ll have 9 players left. I’ll be surprised if there’s more than a single baddie left in that group. 4 of the 9 are still on their first lives, I believe. These are favorable numbers, but no guarantee of victory. We still may need to catch one more mafia, probably an Even. If the game does not end after today we’ll need to POE that last fool out of here. My leading suspect remains DDL. I can tinfoil some others though, and nothing is certain. Input from everybody would be appreciated. If you have any reason to clear or suspect anybody, please say so. We’re entering the end game phase.

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:24 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:44 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:54 am DDL was a pikachu 1.0 member so if he's mafia then his only compatible teammates are you or spacedaisy.

wut

He said DDL was a pikachu 1.0 member so if he's mafia then his only compatible teammates are you or spacedaisy.

thanx

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:58 pm kyle, when my neck was on the line, I became as invested as I could in finding baddies. Your strategy here seems to be unsubstantiated claims and shrugs. I think you’re bad, and you’re only putting in the bare minimum here to save yourself.

I'm literally not trying to save myself dude, I've been advocating for my own death this whole day phase. I haven't made any unsubstantiated claims all I've done so far is outline the literal limits to who can and can't be mafia based on our PoE and extended PoE.

You seemed nonplussed after the lynch switch yesterday, almost like you knew it would happen, and instead of that lighting a fire under your butt, you’re trying to guilt trip the town into, like, looking elsewhere, man.

what are you even talking about. if you feel guilty isn't that on you? I'm not saying "oh no I have to die now how unfair etc etc" im saying that me dying is the most effective choice for moving the game forward and allowing you punks to get your shit together.

My suggestion is to do some digging in players you seem to not know anything about before we mislynch you. Because right now, comments like

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:51 amI actually haven't spent much time or energy paying attention to things players outside of our group of five have said or done recently. i'd have to review him. do you think his behavior regarding my lynch could be indicative or opportunism

Where you use vaguery to talk about a player and turn the question back towards other people make me want to triple lynch you.

I'm sorry? I asked a reasonable question to Sloonei who spent an hour or something reviewing DDL if he thought the behavior he viewed as bad in a different context might also be bad in a real context. Why wouldn't I ask him that?

Also, where is this whole holier-than-thou attitude coming from?

just cus i don't react to things in the way you would doesn't mean im reacting to them incorrectly

also, hey, you said you'd be willing to get lynched for PoE purposes how is my viewpoint any different than yours other than the fact that I'm actually following through??

ugh it's totally scotty

But who killed Scotty?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:47 pm But who killed Scotty?

I've already responded to this question like 3 times. Scotty's killer, if still alive, would have had to have been within the group of SD, Sloonei, Boomslang, and i think one other person that I don't remember? technically he could have also self targeted. maybe the other one was INH? gth id say his killer/partner's Boomslang.

do you have a reason to trust Scotty aside from the fact that he was killed like 2 months ago?

he has been the most inconsistent in suspecting me, and he's trying to shoehorn me into behaviours that i don't even have. With the way he's acting he seems like he's already aware that I'm going to flip civ.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:06 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:47 pm But who killed Scotty?

I've already responded to this question like 3 times. Scotty's killer, if still alive, would have had to have been within the group of SD, Sloonei, Boomslang, and i think one other person that I don't remember? technically he could have also self targeted. maybe the other one was INH? gth id say his killer/partner's Boomslang.

do you have a reason to trust Scotty aside from the fact that he was killed like 2 months ago?

he has been the most inconsistent in suspecting me, and he's trying to shoehorn me into behaviours that i don't even have. With the way he's acting he seems like he's already aware that I'm going to flip civ.

I thought you were going to flip civ with how you were acting before your lynch yesterday but ohhhh the ole switcheroo sure made it seem like you were building up to not being lynched after all.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:35 pm also, hey, you said you'd be willing to get lynched for PoE purposes how is my viewpoint any different than yours other than the fact that I'm actually following through??

Says the guy that has waited to place a vote towards the end so that he may save himself.

If you really wanted to follow through like you are alleging, then why not vote yourself?

I'ma unvote and vote DDL aubergine

just in case Inspector Gadget wants to throw another lynch switch, I'll give a 2nd alternative

Oh and Kyle, I apologize if I'm coming off as antagonistic and/or judgmental- that's not meant to be the case, at any point in the game. I do often forget that people don't play with the same logic that I play with, and it can farkle my frustration pipes.