The Syndicate

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:44 pm**

@Syn is replacing @Chloe who had replaced Tangrowth. Please do not discuss replacements. Thanks.

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:45 pm**

Syn more like bin

Gotem

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:47 pm**

well that answers that i suppose

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:49 pm**

heya Syn

have you had the chance to read the thread?

also if you're the Jailkeeper you need to hardclaim today and claim your target, I don't really think that's likely but

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:50 pm**

The TanChlyn wagon should not exist.

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:51 pm**

I'm... starting to believe in the visor wolf world lmao

like ngl all his posts today have sucked and fit with an agenda

I'm really trying to consider all possible sides of this and atm feeling like it could be the missing puzzle piece

maybe I'm crazy and will change my mind again in a few minutes

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:53 pm**

Lmao

Nutella stop

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:54 pm**

[VOTE: Vulgard] aubergine
Ngl. I kinda think Nutella has some partner equity with Vul actually

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:54 pm**

Arete wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:07 pm
Spoiler: show
Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:13 pm Well, the PoE you're presenting does contain an outed wolf, so I'm sheeping this.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:21 pm And I also have an avatar Kylemii likes. Which is the best argument.

You're voting for an outed wolf or for an anime girl. Which one would you choose as a villager?

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:32 pm Sunbae's avatar is the thing that concerns me the most in this game.

when you write posts in this tone it scares me

please stop scaring me

This yeah lol

we prob do chop vulgard today after all

I still want to do something about chloe/dya though aa

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:55 pm**

???

is Nutella bouncing back and forth like a ping-pong ball multiple times in the same page normal?

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:56 pm**

rabbit give nutella her account back

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:58 pm**

Arete wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:55 pm ???

is Nutella bouncing back and forth like a ping-pong ball multiple times in the same page normal?

yes lol

I basically change my mind reading each post

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:58 pm**

Arete wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:55 pm ???

is Nutella bouncing back and forth like a ping-pong ball multiple times in the same page normal?

Yes but also read my sig.

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:58 pm**

Arete wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:49 pm heya Syn

have you had the chance to read the thread?

also if you're the Jailkeeper you need to hardclaim today and claim your target, I don't really think that's likely but

I watched the first five minutes of the last course video and have read exactly zero posts

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 3:59 pm**

[VOTE: vulgard] aubergine

I don't have a brain so I'm borrowing sunbae's

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:00 pm**

Ugh replacements bad

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:00 pm**

what up girl gamers

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:00 pm**

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:00 pm**

I see how it is nutella

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:00 pm**

Are you town syn

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:00 pm**

[VOTE: nutella, the garbage sandwich spread] aubergine

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:01 pm**

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:00 pm Are you town syn

i'm shy i can't tell you

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:02 pm**

Syn wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:00 pm what up girl gamers

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:03 pm**

i am afraid of what the bucket is for

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:03 pm**

If syn is a wolf I'm back to null on dya though they can be a teammate who shifted hard into bussing today (and is still prob with vul?)

If syn is town dya is just a wolf

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:04 pm**

Syn wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:03 pm i am afraid of what the bucket is for

my feelings

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:08 pm**

Dizzys confidence on the marl world makes me want to not dismiss that either

But it prob is also the visor world

Like visor/marl/dya works imo

hopefully it's just vulgard instead

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:20 pm**

is visor outed wolf

lol

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:28 pm**

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:08 pm Dizzys confidence on the marl world makes me want to not dismiss that either

But it prob is also the visor world

Like visor/marl/dya works imo

hopefully it's just vulgard instead

how does visor w/w with dya "work"? idgi. i don't know about him with marl either, visor kept shading marl when people were clearing him in a way that seemed weird if they're bros

Syn wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:20 pm is visor outed wolf

lol

yes

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:40 pm**

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:08 am 4. The string of posts you're claiming was me softing a red on c4 was me actually hinting something to Marl. Me and Marl both had Sunbae in our PoE in our night chat. Zack posted something I interpreted as him claiming a red on Sunbae, and that is what I was hinting at when I talked to Marl. I was wondering if he saw it too, because if he did and if the claim was true, we were collectively correct on a PoE read and it would be awesome. It would mean our nightchat got us somewhere. The thing about my JK stuff and claiming a red on c4 was all your narrative, I never planned to do any of this. Honestly, I'm disappointed everybody turned on me instantly (minus Arete) and never considered a different world.

@Marluxion - is this paragraph from vulgard a realistic description of the chat that you had with him overnight? do you believe that vulgard could have reasonably believed that you and him were picking up on zack's "red check" on sunbae?

for this reasoning to be true, it means that vulgard expected you to do the mental gymnastics of picking up on zack's red soft on sunbae, believing that amy was a wolf who was getting CC'd by zack, and believing that sunbae/amy were a wolf team, OR vulgard expected you to deduce that his JK claim was fake and that zack was the real JK who was claiming a redcheck - instead of making the far more logical assumption that vulgard simply wanted you to believe that he had a guilty on c4

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:42 pm**

when i saw vulgard's long and impassioned defense last night, i just kinda went ""w/e, let's just resolve dyachei first and see what type of clarity that provides", but i do agree that the mechanics point plainly to vulgard probably just being a wolf. there's a part of me that wants to believe him just because he's good at doing the politician esque strategy of saying a whole lot of words without very much substance

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:45 pm**

if syn doesnt become obvious town within his next couple of posts then he's a wolf

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:46 pm**

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:45 pm if syn doesnt become obvious town within his next couple of posts then he's a wolf

help how do i obvious town

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 4:47 pm**

is there any use in ISOing my previous two slot holders?

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:12 pm**

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:08 pm Dizzys confidence on the marl world makes me want to not dismiss that either

But it prob is also the visor world

Like visor/marl/dya works imo

hopefully it's just vulgard instead

The confidence is gone

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:13 pm**

It’s a Syn!

Um, I’m just going to sheep Sunbae and Amy

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:14 pm**

Vul/Dya/Nut called it

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:17 pm**

Oh right.

Imagine Arete town Vul wolf.

Is this like when Hally hard shielded me all game when they last was town in a game I was scum?

What’s the story between the two? It’s a bit bizarre

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:24 pm**

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 5:17 pm Oh right.

Imagine Arete town Vul wolf.

Is this like when Hally hard shielded me all game when they last was town in a game I was scum?

What’s the story between the two? It’s a bit bizarre

I mean even arete has shown some concern with vul's recent posts so I'm hoping they're just wrong

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:27 pm**

Kill me and kill Visor next, game's still winnable. I'm not going to post anymore unless something wild happens. I'm tired.

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:29 pm**

if visor v vulgard w, sunbae simply goat
if visor w vulgard v, sunbae goat by accident for picking the right targets for the opposite reasons
thats the fun of jailkeepers lol

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:30 pm**

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 5:27 pm I'm not going to post anymore unless something wild happens.

^aaaaa

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:31 pm**

it's ok arete happens to everyone

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:32 pm**

It would be helpful to hear who you think Outed Wolf could be/isn't teamed with, who you think was opportunistic in coming at you, discuss Dya a bit more (you were pretty defensive about them yesterday in that wall I quoted), talk a bit about some of the more uncertain reads like SPF, etc.

While the situation is frustrating regardless of your role, I hope for a big stint of solving as we get closer rather than shutting down. Like, if you are town you have the best view of the gamestate moving forward. You have an extensive chat with Marl, what is his alignment imo? Do you feel like Bronana/Outed Wolf are teamed? We've got a tangy/chloe/syn slot that has been hard to get a read on due to it bouncing around so much, so whatcha landing on there?

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:33 pm**

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 5:31 pm it's ok arete happens to everyone

if he's actually a wolf here I'm going to cry

I still think he's town but like 85 percent town rather than like 99 percent town and almost entirely because of days 1-2

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:34 pm**

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:40 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:08 am 4. The string of posts you're claiming was me softing a red on c4 was me actually hinting something to Marl. Me and Marl both had Sunbae in our PoE in our night chat. Zack posted something I interpreted as him claiming a red on Sunbae, and that is what I was hinting at when I talked to Marl. I was wondering if he saw it too, because if he did and if the claim was true, we were collectively correct on a PoE read and it would be awesome. It would mean our nightchat got us somewhere. The thing about my JK stuff and claiming a red on c4 was all your narrative, I never planned to do any of this. Honestly, I'm disappointed everybody turned on me instantly (minus Arete) and never considered a different world.
@Marluxion - is this paragraph from vulgard a realistic description of the chat that you had with him overnight? do you believe that vulgard could have reasonably believed that you and him were picking up on zack's "red check" on sunbae?

for this reasoning to be true, it means that vulgard expected you to do the mental gymnastics of picking up on zack's red soft on sunbae, believing that amy was a wolf who was getting CC'd by zack, and believing that sunbae/amy were a wolf team, OR vulgard expected you to deduce that his JK claim was fake and that zack was the real JK who was claiming a redcheck - instead of making the far more logical assumption that vulgard simply wanted you to believe that he had a guilty on c4

^^ignoring mechanics completely, this is a point that i would like to hear more from marluxion about (and from vulgard, if he wants)

vulgard's story seems directly at odds with what marluxion told us about their chat during the night, and it's for that reason that i want to hear as many details as i possibly can about it

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:39 pm**

like, if we live in a bizzaro world where vulgard is a villager, then it's incredibly important that we establish right now if marluxion simply distrusts vulgard, or if he's outright claiming that vulgard is lying about how things went down. i want to hear marl explain the dynamic between vulgard and himself with as much detail as he possibly can, because it will become extremely relevant to future discussion in a worst case scenario world where vulgard is a villager

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:44 pm**

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 5:39 pm like, if we live in a bizzaro world where vulgard is a villager, then it's incredibly important that we establish right now if marluxion simply distrusts vulgard, or if he's outright claiming that vulgard is lying about how things went down. i want to hear marl explain the dynamic between vulgard and himself with as much detail as he possibly can, because it will become extremely relevant to future discussion in a worst case scenario world where vulgard is a villager

Should I feel insulted?

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:56 pm**

Quick update since the poll timer is screwy: Day 3 ends in just over 24 hours.

Posted: **Mon May 31, 2021 5:56 pm**

I think if I read Outed Wolf's posts from the specific perspective where he's the wolf roleblocker who got jailkept trying to block Amy N1, and whose team tried to kill Vul N2, they're more or less exactly what I would expect to see in that world (particularly if Marl is also a villager)

Spoiler: show

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:09 pm (okay you can)

Vulgards an interesting one

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:11 pm It's possible wolves shot vulgard to jk dodge so they could kill Amy unprotected tomorrow

But then you RB Amy

So unlikely I guess

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:14 pm C4 vulgard dya work for y'all?

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:20 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:16 pm ok so this is a really dumb theory and if Vul is somehow a wolf then saying it is super minus EV because it just tells him what to fakeclaim

but

if Sunbae is a wolf who carried the kill

he would have TMI that Marl is faking (since he would know that c4 didn't carry the kill)

and TMI that the real jailkeeper is going to out him

and he would probably put together with Marl + Vul's conversation at SoD that Vul was the actual jailkeeper

and this is all very convoluted but I think it's more likely than the world where I was wrong about Vul
this is horrendous pal

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:30 pm

in more serious news i generally believe sunbaes claim but we'll see what people say

i think dya is a wolf in most worlds and probably didnt carry the kill in case they were blocked (which would be a reasonable assumption i think)

sunbaes progression on vulgard is perfectly followable, his progression on me is perfectly followable

i think c4 wasnt outed but made outed wolf posts anyway (we've all done the same shit he did when weve been outed as a wolf)

dya/c4/vulgard makes sense to me

i think arete is ego attached to ready vul correctly but they can die anyway if wrong

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:41 pm i mean its just vulgard/c4/dya right?

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:45 pm i think vulgard was just tryna go deep when he knows the village is gonna catch onto c4 and dya

i got other stuff to do today so dont expect any digging here

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:51 pm i dont think vulgard was intending for it to be a proper claim

i think he was doing it for town cred raisins

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:20 pm Arete just going down with the ship or?

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:46 am There is a world where the wolves shot vulgard and didn't RB Amy but idk it's not optimal at all for wolves to do that lol

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:30 am Hmm. Expecting Amy to be blocked from the jailkeep is theoretically viable

Vulgards still a weird kind of kill, but now that you mention it it is a possibility

It's definitely not what I'd have done as a wolf though

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:27 am what if: marl w thought vul was the jk

shot him

sunbae accidentally saved the day

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:15 am
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:05 am Um.

Why is the story not this:

Vulgard claims JK to Marl in night chat. Marl is mafia and believes the claim. Marl then tells his team that Vulgard is JK. They decide to both NK Vulgard and block Vulgard. This is always the best play for mafia if they think Vul is JK, and this explains why Amy could track. Assuming block trumps JK.

Sunbae however is the real JK and targets Vulgard, so he doesn’t die.

What am I missing?

If you believe Vulgard is town, should your vote not always be on Marl? And I rather believe Vulgard is town.

Is this not just the actions that makes the most sense? Mafia would rather kill JK than 2-shot Tracker. They would also rather block JK, as Vulgard (if he was JK) would be able to stop the kill on him with some luck.

Yes???
I agree with this fwiw

If vulgards a villager marluxion has to be a wolf

No reason why anyone would kill vulgard otherwise

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:26 am I mean either vulgard is a wolf who got blocked

Or he's a villager who got saved

If he's a villager who got saved the only one who has a reason to kill him is marluxion with the jk stuff. I can't find a legit reason for a single other person in the game to kill him. It's not like he was a threat, nobody was listening to him after gavial. And I doubt Chloe or arete kill him just because they know him

We just have to decide if we think vulgard is wolf RB that got blocked (most likely wolf role if he's a wolf) which is why Amy isn't blocked

Or if marluxion shot vulgard because he thought he claimed jailkeeper and potentially roleblocked him too (cause didn't RB Amy)

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:27 am Marluxion pushing hard for vulgard to die is a thing too

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:31 am Either way there's a wolf in vul/marl

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:36 am Sure that is also possible.

I think I lean toward marl being a wolf rn but I need to sleep on it and throw some darts with others on it a bit

Vulgards posting where he goes nowhere with 2000 words isn't exactly inspiring confidence

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:02 pm I mean I just can't imagine shooting vulgard here as a wolf unless I was super super super confident he was jk

And marl has the reason to be confident

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:03 pm Nobody was listening to vulgard lol

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:04 pm I'm tired as hell and gonna save some posts

I don't buy any of the theatrics and I don't buy the wolves shooting vulgard as a random pr hunt

See y'all later

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:22 pm im fine killing vulgard

i think if we're assuming optimal play by the wolves then vulgard is a wolf plain and simple.

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:58 pm er, vulgard and i can both be villas

(also id never not rb amy lol cmon)

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:23 pm look sunbae, its possible wolves made a bad play

i dont think its super likely but the world exists

i just dont wanna get shrug killed tomorrow in case you are wrong cuz im a villabro

like essentially he goes 'yeah, Vul is just a wolf here, also his posts today are wolfy and Arete defending him is wolfy. we should kill him. technically he could be a villager though? but he's not a villager. also there's no way a wolf would have made the sort of mechanically bad play that would have been necessary for Vul to be a villager here.'

and then when the Marl thing comes up he's like 'yeah actually Marl or Vul definitely has a wolf. for sure. the alternative where wolves are mechanically incompetent is pretty ridiculous.'

and then when the specific he-is-roleblocker-who-targeted-Amy-N1 world comes up he's like 'wait no if Vul is a villager then maybe the wolves are just mechanically incompetent. you shouldn't kill me just because he flipped villa.'

which like

'wolves could be mechanically incompetent and you shouldn't kill me just because Vul flipped town' is a perspective that makes sense for a villager to have

but he was much less willing to believe the 'wolves did something mechanically incompetent' theory when it was two other players (Marl + Vul) who people were suggesting might be domed together than when it was him and Vulgard -- if it's a plausible theory then it should be a plausible theory no matter who the non-Vul player is

and despite expressing the belief that even independent of mechanics, considering specifically Vul's posts today Vul is likely to flip scum, he seems legitimately worried about the possibility of him flipping town, which feels weird with his PoV

also I think there's very likely to be a wolf in Vul/Outed Wolf based on the fact that Sunbae is the only one actually pushing for a world where they have to be V/W, whereas if they were V/V it would make sense for wolves to want to encourage that dichotomy (which no one has been doing)

[VOTE: Outed Wolf] aubergine

The Syndicate

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