The Syndicate

The straightforward reason is because Speed was one of the three players who expressed a scumread on Nanook last night.

The wifom reason is the wolf wanted us to think the above.

Or they wanted us to think the above.

There is a very tinfoily idea that DDL is the wolf and he’s not killing me so as not to draw attention to him not killing him self either. If that’s the case, we’ll just lose. You can have the same tinfoil for me but that’s also a scenario the town just loses.

Ultimately, the kill doesn’t really make me want to reevaluate my instinct to vote off Nanook.

[VOTE: Nanook] aubergine

If I were scum I just NKed my only realistic path to victory, yeah?

I mean it's fine, I get that I probably die today regardless, but like...if I were scum my path to a win was get Tony and DDL to buy into my POE of Chuck and Hyena, not NK one of the two players I could've pushed lol

Like if I want to silence a Nanook vote, don't I just kill you Jack?

Idk if there's any point to me arguing this tbh, the kill doesn't really make sense for anyone and I'm probably going to die to paranoia regardless. If that's the case let me know so I can low effort today and laugh from dead chat

I guess I'll put my vote on Hyena and hope he did something weird so I at least get postgame bragging rights lol

Well, I’m so confused right now.

At this point I am willing to entertain three minutes of discussion on why Jack is scum. Those three minutes begin now and end approximately when I complete this paper.

If hyena is scum, maybe he thinks his line is me today, NK Jack or DDL and reverse his Tony read? Like, that’s the best I can come up with


If I tinfoil I guess I could see jack knowing he has to break up chuck/hyena and nanook/DDL and sees this as the best way to do it? But that would require scum to have wasted N1, so.

I’m still not considering a DDL world.

If it’s Tony, killing chuck doesn’t super make sense imo—why not just NK DDL, let hyena/chuck/jack kill me today, then push hyena or chuck in f3? Doesn’t that make more sense? Now he’d be looking at an f3 of 2 out of Jack/DDL/Hyena, that seems strictly worse to me, I think?


So yeah, idk. I guess hyena is the most straightforward option imo, but even that doesn’t super make sense to kill me over jack or even DDL.

My for posterity thoughts aren’t very helpful apparently, sorry in advance

Hmm

Jack and Tony, I want you two to vote for me. I'm not taking no for an answer this time.

Nanook, I have a sneaking suspicion Jack is scum, but I think I'm going to have to confirm it with my ability to prove it to you.

I think Jack is trying to set up a F3 of him/me/Tony where I'm the person he's going to go after. Failing that, I think he wants to bring DDL instead of me, which is why he's sowing suspicion on him right now.

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:22 am I think Jack is trying to set up a F3 of him/me/Tony where I'm the person he's going to go after. Failing that, I think he wants to bring DDL instead of me, which is why he's sowing suspicion on him right now.

Hmm... actually, I dunno if that makes sense.

So, my original thought that Jack was maybe casting suspicion on DDL because he foresaw me pushing for my own lynch... but if I was successful in doing so, that would confirm he's mafia if he's actually mafia... so maybe I'm wrong here and maybe it is just as straightforward as I think it is (Nanook is mafia).

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:26 am So, my original thought that Jack was maybe casting suspicion on DDL because he foresaw me pushing for my own lynch... but if I was successful in doing so, that would confirm he's mafia if he's actually mafia... so maybe I'm wrong here and maybe it is just as straightforward as I think it is (Nanook is mafia).

The thing about DDL though did ping me, considering that he did just talk about having a POE of Nanook and myself.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:28 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:23 pm You guys go first.

juliets/speed/tony

Here is DDL's PoE. What happens though if we get into a F3 of Jack/DDL/me? That would require a lynch on Nanook, and a night kill on Tony, right?

I t hi NK if it’s Jack he doesn’t need to deviate from status quo, but he could trick himself into thinking he did.
One reason it’s not Jack is he lynched MP and he had sole power not to do that. That’s also, as far as I care, the only still acceptable reason why it’s not Jack.

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:34 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:28 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:23 pm You guys go first.

juliets/speed/tony

Here is DDL's PoE. What happens though if we get into a F3 of Jack/DDL/me? That would require a lynch on Nanook, and a night kill on Tony, right?

The thing I don't get though is why not bring DDL and Tony to F3 and just wait for DDL to go after Tony?

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:37 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:34 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:28 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:23 pm You guys go first.

juliets/speed/tony

Here is DDL's PoE. What happens though if we get into a F3 of Jack/DDL/me? That would require a lynch on Nanook, and a night kill on Tony, right?

The thing I don't get though is why not bring DDL and Tony to F3 and just wait for DDL to go after Tony?

Why would an F3 of Jack/DDL/Tony ever happen with me still alive after Nanook is lynched? Why would I get nightkilled over DDL? I guess that F3 doesn't really make sense either.

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:41 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:37 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:34 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:28 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:23 pm You guys go first.

juliets/speed/tony

Here is DDL's PoE. What happens though if we get into a F3 of Jack/DDL/me? That would require a lynch on Nanook, and a night kill on Tony, right?

The thing I don't get though is why not bring DDL and Tony to F3 and just wait for DDL to go after Tony?

Why would an F3 of Jack/DDL/Tony ever happen with me still alive after Nanook is lynched? Why would I get nightkilled over DDL? I guess that F3 doesn't really make sense either.

I'm starting to think that the only F3 that makes sense with Jack in it (assuming we lynch Nanook today) would be Jack/DDL/me.

If this is the case, then I'm going to make it known right now that I always vote for Jack in that F3, and NOT DDL.

We’re at almost 50 percent odds on completely random lynches.

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:41 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:37 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:34 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:28 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:23 pm You guys go first.

juliets/speed/tony

Here is DDL's PoE. What happens though if we get into a F3 of Jack/DDL/me? That would require a lynch on Nanook, and a night kill on Tony, right?

The thing I don't get though is why not bring DDL and Tony to F3 and just wait for DDL to go after Tony?

Why would an F3 of Jack/DDL/Tony ever happen with me still alive after Nanook is lynched? Why would I get nightkilled over DDL? I guess that F3 doesn't really make sense either.

Importantly Jack needs to nightkill you or lynch you at F3 to win.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:45 am We’re at almost 50 percent odds on completely random lynches.

Tony, Speed had you in his PoE. If Nanook is town, and he got lynched today, that would mean you would have likely gone to an F3 with Speed. Jack pretty much has you locked town, which would explain why you wouldn't kill him in the night. However, he's the only one who has you in that kind of position. I expressed suspicion of you before townreading you yesterday, DDL has you in his PoE, and Nanook said he'd reconsider you if both Speed and Juliets flipped town (though, he's leaning towards me being scum now). Why shouldn't I think you killed Speed last night?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:45 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:41 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:37 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:34 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:28 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:23 pm You guys go first.

juliets/speed/tony

Here is DDL's PoE. What happens though if we get into a F3 of Jack/DDL/me? That would require a lynch on Nanook, and a night kill on Tony, right?

The thing I don't get though is why not bring DDL and Tony to F3 and just wait for DDL to go after Tony?

Why would an F3 of Jack/DDL/Tony ever happen with me still alive after Nanook is lynched? Why would I get nightkilled over DDL? I guess that F3 doesn't really make sense either.

Importantly Jack needs to nightkill you or lynch you at F3 to win.

You don't think he'd be successful in lynching me at F3?

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:52 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:45 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:41 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:37 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:34 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:28 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:23 pm You guys go first.

juliets/speed/tony

Here is DDL's PoE. What happens though if we get into a F3 of Jack/DDL/me? That would require a lynch on Nanook, and a night kill on Tony, right?

The thing I don't get though is why not bring DDL and Tony to F3 and just wait for DDL to go after Tony?

Why would an F3 of Jack/DDL/Tony ever happen with me still alive after Nanook is lynched? Why would I get nightkilled over DDL? I guess that F3 doesn't really make sense either.

Importantly Jack needs to nightkill you or lynch you at F3 to win.

You don't think he'd be successful in lynching me at F3?

Or lynching DDL?

Bleh

Why do I always do this to myself.

[VOTE: Nanook] aubergine

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:52 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:52 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:45 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:41 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:37 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:34 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:28 pm

juliets/speed/tony

Here is DDL's PoE. What happens though if we get into a F3 of Jack/DDL/me? That would require a lynch on Nanook, and a night kill on Tony, right?

The thing I don't get though is why not bring DDL and Tony to F3 and just wait for DDL to go after Tony?

Why would an F3 of Jack/DDL/Tony ever happen with me still alive after Nanook is lynched? Why would I get nightkilled over DDL? I guess that F3 doesn't really make sense either.

Importantly Jack needs to nightkill you or lynch you at F3 to win.

You don't think he'd be successful in lynching me at F3?

Or lynching DDL?

He’d have a harder time with you. He’s avoiding casing you right now, you’d have the grounds to make a strong fight. I wouldn’t risk it. Additionally, if you get lynched today and he’s scum, it ruins his whole plan.

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:51 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:45 am We’re at almost 50 percent odds on completely random lynches.

Tony, Speed had you in his PoE. If Nanook is town, and he got lynched today, that would mean you would have likely gone to an F3 with Speed. Jack pretty much has you locked town, which would explain why you wouldn't kill him in the night. However, he's the only one who has you in that kind of position. I expressed suspicion of you before townreading you yesterday, DDL has you in his PoE, and Nanook said he'd reconsider you if both Speed and Juliets flipped town (though, he's leaning towards me being scum now). Why shouldn't I think you killed Speed last night?

I need Speed / Nanook lynches. I’d have to occupy the space as second most likely candidate both days to win. I also can’t win with you lynched today, remember.

That is, i think Hyena/Nanook/Me is a really good F3 for me as scum. That’s almost never happening now.

Hyena, can you get confirmation on if a scum kill would get turned off by your power?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:56 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:51 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:45 am We’re at almost 50 percent odds on completely random lynches.

Tony, Speed had you in his PoE. If Nanook is town, and he got lynched today, that would mean you would have likely gone to an F3 with Speed. Jack pretty much has you locked town, which would explain why you wouldn't kill him in the night. However, he's the only one who has you in that kind of position. I expressed suspicion of you before townreading you yesterday, DDL has you in his PoE, and Nanook said he'd reconsider you if both Speed and Juliets flipped town (though, he's leaning towards me being scum now). Why shouldn't I think you killed Speed last night?

I need Speed / Nanook lynches. I’d have to occupy the space as second most likely candidate both days to win. I also can’t win with you lynched today, remember.

Yeah, that's true.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:59 am Hyena, can you get confirmation on if a scum kill would get turned off by your power?

Will do.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:47 pm I mean it's fine, I get that I probably die today regardless, but like...if I were scum my path to a win was get Tony and DDL to buy into my POE of Chuck and Hyena, not NK one of the two players I could've pushed lol

Like if I want to silence a Nanook vote, don't I just kill you Jack?

Idk if there's any point to me arguing this tbh, the kill doesn't really make sense for anyone and I'm probably going to die to paranoia regardless. If that's the case let me know so I can low effort today and laugh from dead chat

I mean sure but if you’re mafia, you get to pick the kill so that you can say this.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 1:07 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:47 pm I mean it's fine, I get that I probably die today regardless, but like...if I were scum my path to a win was get Tony and DDL to buy into my POE of Chuck and Hyena, not NK one of the two players I could've pushed lol

Like if I want to silence a Nanook vote, don't I just kill you Jack?

Idk if there's any point to me arguing this tbh, the kill doesn't really make sense for anyone and I'm probably going to die to paranoia regardless. If that's the case let me know so I can low effort today and laugh from dead chat

I mean sure but if you’re mafia, you get to pick the kill so that you can say this.

I mean clearly I understand there’s WIFOM involved and I most likely die today, lol. I’m not fighting it particularly hard, tbh, just trying to give what help I can if any for f3

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:16 am Jack and Tony, I want you two to vote for me. I'm not taking no for an answer this time.

Nanook, I have a sneaking suspicion Jack is scum, but I think I'm going to have to confirm it with my ability to prove it to you.

I mean, I’m not necessarily against the idea.

Confirms you, me, Tony. DDL already confirmed in my eyes.

We lynch Nanook tomorrow ftw unless Tony gets blocked.

Will your lynch retroactively prevent Tony’s (presumed) day action of submitting a night poll?

Is there a reason not to go Nanook -> Hyena? In case you get nked I suppose?

If nanook and hyena are both town then going nanook -> hyena loses the game

Like if you want to test hyena’s claim or clear tony/jack, that has to happen today for what should be glaringly obvious reasons.

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:22 am I think Jack is trying to set up a F3 of him/me/Tony where I'm the person he's going to go after. Failing that, I think he wants to bring DDL instead of me, which is why he's sowing suspicion on him right now.

I’m never getting lynched. I’m already mechanically confirmed unless you think that my scumteam burned a power cop on itself and then I last second voted to lynch my teammate from a POE of 4-5.

The only reason I’m up for your plan is that Speedchuck died which makes it mechanically possible to confirm everyone but DDL and Nanook and then have another lynch AND I’m already okay with just losing if DDL is scum. I don’t actually feel the need to confirm myself or Tony because I wouldn’t ever let either of us be lynched. There’s just no downside to it.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 1:15 am If nanook and hyena are both town then going nanook -> hyena loses the game

There’s no way you’re both town but going Hyena -> Nanook is fine. I doubt it’s anyone but you but I also doubt you have any vote manipulation.

I don’t actually think an action had to be wasted. I’ve been thinking about it a bit today, isn’t it just as possible that Radishes wrote the report for you and you used it as a “hey look how not partners we are” moment?

That’s the main reason I was TRing you, and uh...I’m not entirely sure I thought it through far enough tbh

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:37 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:34 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:28 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:23 pm You guys go first.

juliets/speed/tony

Here is DDL's PoE. What happens though if we get into a F3 of Jack/DDL/me? That would require a lynch on Nanook, and a night kill on Tony, right?

The thing I don't get though is why not bring DDL and Tony to F3 and just wait for DDL to go after Tony?

Or why not shoot you (eliminating a way to mechanically catch me, especially since you’re in my poe so i can’t hard argue against your lynch) and then lynch Nanook today and then kill DDL and watch Speed and Tony eat each other?

Or why not shoot Tony, then let Speed and Nanook fight all day, then shoot DDL and lynch the other of Speed and Nanook?

How bout it doesn’t even matter cause we now how the ability to lynch you and autowin unless it’s DDL. But it’s not DDL.




And this is the part where I spent way too long trying to crop a video so Paul Heyman is like “And that’s not a prediction. That’s a spoiler.”

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:54 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:52 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:52 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:45 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:41 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:37 am

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:34 am

Here is DDL's PoE. What happens though if we get into a F3 of Jack/DDL/me? That would require a lynch on Nanook, and a night kill on Tony, right?

The thing I don't get though is why not bring DDL and Tony to F3 and just wait for DDL to go after Tony?

Why would an F3 of Jack/DDL/Tony ever happen with me still alive after Nanook is lynched? Why would I get nightkilled over DDL? I guess that F3 doesn't really make sense either.

Importantly Jack needs to nightkill you or lynch you at F3 to win.

You don't think he'd be successful in lynching me at F3?

Or lynching DDL?

He’d have a harder time with you. He’s avoiding casing you right now, you’d have the grounds to make a strong fight. I wouldn’t risk it. Additionally, if you get lynched today and he’s scum, it ruins his whole plan.

Which is why I do avoid killing Hyena AND shoot in the poe.

Though I suppose whoever shot Speed was redirected or made a mechanical error unless it’s DDL (it’s not DDL) because lynching Hyena clears all but two players and we get to lynch one of them.

Unless Nanook has vote manipulation or a block. I don’t think he has either.

Don’t*

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:14 pm

M Plus 7 has been lynched. He was Idiots Who Lick Things in Grocery Stores.

You make it so people can’t do their jobs. Your target therefore won’t be able to act at Night due to having to clean up after your nastiness.

You are a mafia.

It is now Night 3. You have until 9pm EST to submit your Night actions.

Yeah MP was a blocker so there’s no getting out of it if I don’t have a report or Tony doesn’t have a poll.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 12:59 am Hyena, can you get confirmation on if a scum kill would get turned off by your power?

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 1:04 am Will do.

And can ya’ll both confirm that your powers work such that Tony is actually blocked if he’s scum?

Like if Tony’s poll is a day action and Hyena’s death causes a night block, that doesn’t confirm Tony if we still see a poll.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 1:30 am I don’t actually think an action had to be wasted. I’ve been thinking about it a bit today, isn’t it just as possible that Radishes wrote the report for you and you used it as a “hey look how not partners we are” moment?

That’s the main reason I was TRing you, and uh...I’m not entirely sure I thought it through far enough tbh

If that was the case, LC’s power would have killed me, not Radishes. It killed whoever submitted the fake news.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 1:55 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 1:30 am I don’t actually think an action had to be wasted. I’ve been thinking about it a bit today, isn’t it just as possible that Radishes wrote the report for you and you used it as a “hey look how not partners we are” moment?

That’s the main reason I was TRing you, and uh...I’m not entirely sure I thought it through far enough tbh

If that was the case, LC’s power would have killed me, not Radishes. It killed whoever submitted the fake news.

I read it as he could functionally try to shoot any player/role, not that he could only kill the news reporter and only if they were scum?

So if he submitted a jack post, or a radishes post, or a hyena post, etc., that’s what would determine it.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 1:58 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 1:55 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 1:30 am I don’t actually think an action had to be wasted. I’ve been thinking about it a bit today, isn’t it just as possible that Radishes wrote the report for you and you used it as a “hey look how not partners we are” moment?

That’s the main reason I was TRing you, and uh...I’m not entirely sure I thought it through far enough tbh

If that was the case, LC’s power would have killed me, not Radishes. It killed whoever submitted the fake news.

I read it as he could functionally try to shoot any player/role, not that he could only kill the news reporter and only if they were scum?

So if he submitted a jack post, or a radishes post, or a hyena post, etc., that’s what would determine it.

That's how I read the power. He just had a really easy opportunity to find some fake news.

One-shot lie detector vig.